The club can also boast a large group of players in their early 20's, kids who are extremely likely to be better in these next few seasons.
How many rookies can we reasonably expect to see from the Oilers in 11-12?
10-11 Rookies
- Taylor Hall 65gp, 22-20-42
- Jordan Eberle 62gp, 17-22-39
- MPS 73gp, 12-17-29
- Linus Omark 44gp, 3-18-21
- Devan Dubnyk 30gp, 2.87 .911
- Jeff Petry 28gp, 1-2-3
What's missing? Centermen who can win faceoffs, size and grit (and experience plus depth but Rome wasn't built in a day). Which is (I believe) the reason Teemu Hartikainein and Chris Vande Velde are such interesting callups.
- Teemu Hartikainen 5gp, 1-1-2, 2pims -2 8 shots
- Chris Vande Velde 5gp, 5gp, 0-0-0 0pims -2 2 shots 64% faceoffs
We know the Oilers have a lottery pick coming and there's a large graduating class led by Anton Lander, Curtis Hamilton and Martin Marincin. However, along with the kids jumping from junior and Europe there looks to be a few AHL players who will push for jobs.
Interesting.
I don't know what's going on with Olivier Roy but it looks like he's collapsing in every game so far of the playoffs -- dude was just pulled (again) after two goals on four shots.
ReplyDeleteIf one half of our prospects pan out, it will be a very positive success. We should not expect much from the 2010 draftees. They should be parked in the AHL for 50+ games next year. That said, I could see 5 more of them on the opening day roster.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that CVD is winning 60% of his draws is a shameful indictment of our NHL centre men. It is a skill set and is also an embarrassment for Oiler management. Who knew you could find players with that skill set. Not sure either CVD or O'Marra are ready for the NHL though
Vande Velde could play a 4line role imo. He's older for a prospect so you need to see if he's anything.
ReplyDeleteHe had a terrible season in OKC but this little cup of coffee offers some hope imo.
LT
ReplyDeleteIt is the terrible year in OKC that leads me to question his ability to play in the show. It's not his face off %. Good sized body too but if you tread water at the AHL I am concerned he can do better in the NHL
No doubt though Kevin will give him thirty games next year to fail at everything save face offs
Followed-by Jim Matheson writing a column saying the Oilers didn't sign a PK, FO centre man in the off season because management were certain CVD could fill that role coming out of training camp.
ReplyDeleteIf he can't, it will because CVD "underperformed".
Nice program Saturday. Driving to Dawson Creek and it seemed to shorten the drive
Next year is gonna be mostly the same. A few defensemen will change faces but their talent level won't.
ReplyDeleteIf they get RNH or Larsson then I suspect they'll give them another year in their perspective league.
Gear up for another year of talking about lottery picks. Grigorenko, Murray, Reinhardt, etc.
Well you might as well see if he's anything. VDV's AHL numbers were awful but we don't know the role he played (save for Nelson's comments).
ReplyDeleteThe kid I wonder about is Kytnar. He's been good in the second half.
Double edged sword - all the AHL guys up with the big club. Get to check them out but they aren't helping down in OKC. Man what a dogfight/logjam in the Western conference down there. The team's past ten games is 2-4-0-4. 9th in conference.
ReplyDeleteI'll preface this by saying Ryan O'Marra is a guy I root for, because A) he's worked his way back from the dead (ECHL) and B) he seems like such a bright, coachable and like-able guy in all his interviews, and C) he seems like the only salvageable piece from the Smyth trade.
ReplyDeleteThat said, he's never shown much in his brief NHL stints, but I thought about half-way through the Calgary game on Saturday the lightbulb may have switched on for him. As the pace picked up, he got more physical and looked much more confident on the puck than I've ever seen him.
At one point in the third, Renney tossed his line out every other shift for a couple shifts. Still needs to get better on the dot, as that was thought to be a strength, but I was encouraged.
I'm anxious to see if there's any sustain against the Kings tomorrow. Here's hoping.
That .911 save percentage by DD might be the most underrated rookie stat on the team.
ReplyDeleteThere's been 52 goalies to play 20 or more games this year so far. Ranked by SV%, DD sits 32nd. On a horrible, horrible team. Ahead of guys like Jimmy Howard, Halak, Brodeur, and Kiprusoff.
Superbowl Sunday sits 48th out of 52.
DD's SV% compares favourably to the three rookie goalies this year who are getting rave reviews.
Corey Crawford = .918
Sergei Bobrovsky = .917
Michal Neuvirth = .915
All three of these guys are on cup contenders, so at very least, they don't have the Keystone Cops playing D in front of them.
VDV is an upgrade on Fraser, no?
ReplyDeleteIn 5 games he has a Rel Corsi just under 0. Fraser is at -9.3
If he wins more than 1/2 his faceoffs, and adds some size and grit, he can play 4th line C and be a useful piece. He has shown some good defensive zone coverage down around his net.
I have some hope House might be able to play a similar role but with perhaps better wheels.
My instinct is that some of the coming crop of prospects will get held back in Jr. next year. Maybe even Marincin, considering he flagged the past couple of months.
ReplyDeleteAs bad as this year turned out, this was a wonderful crop of rookies. One for the ages. But this is the beginning of very long haul, now that The Braintrust has tipped their hand on the length and type of rebuild.
A very, very long haul. Like rowing across the Atlantic. Up hill.
No oars either but fortunately for us our intrepid Coxswain Kevin Lowe still shouts out the cadence.
Pogyflaq... what Mama used to give me between jobs.
spoiler:
ReplyDeleteThat's my hope too. The only '10 draftee aside from Hall that should be graduated is Curtis Hamilton. The rest all have things they can work on at the junior level.
@ The other john:
ReplyDeleteMatheson said, "Followed-by Jim Matheson writing a column saying the Oilers didn't sign a PK, FO centre man in the off season because management were certain CVD could fill that role coming out of training camp."
If mgmnt really believes that they are smoking the drapes. How you can expect a kid out of college, who has not played any in the AHL (or NHL for that matter) to step into THAT an NHL job is a bunch of revisionist BS.
Not saying that you (other john) are saying that, but if management is really saying that they're something is seriously wrong.
Don't get me wrong, I want VDV to succeed - heck I want all the kids to succeed. But there's a learning curve that's not accounted for in that projection.
No doubt though Kevin will give him thirty games next year to fail at everything save face offs
ReplyDeleteGood plan, lets see if the kid can play. If he can't, maybe he can coach faceoffs.
trade - gagner, cogs, Hemsky
ReplyDeletebury in minors - fraser, khabby
let walk - jones, jacques, strudwick, mcintyre, vandermeer
play in OKC - Ladner, Marincin, Pitlick, Hamilton, Omarra, reddox
Hall - ??? - Eberle
Omark - ??? - Svensson
??? - Horcoff - ???
Hartikanen - Vandelde - Brule
Larsson Whitney
??? Gilbert
Peckham Petry
???
Dubnyk
trade - gagner, cogs, Hemsky
ReplyDeletebury in minors - fraser, khabby
let walk - jones, jacques, strudwick, mcintyre, vandermeer
play in OKC - Ladner, Marincin, Pitlick, Hamilton, Omarra, reddox
Hall - ??? - Eberle
Omark - ??? - Svensson
??? - Horcoff - ???
Hartikanen - Vandelde - Brule
Larsson Whitney
??? Gilbert
Peckham Petry
???
Dubnyk
So you're saying that if we took the Oilers and replaced all of their players with unspecified better players, the team would be better? What a daring premise.
ha ha im just saying who i would keep and who i would get rid of if i was in the GM's shoes. i know its easier said than done
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting what pans out at center both with
ReplyDeletethe big club and in Oklahoma if a few players turn pro and/or if they draft a center. Lots of competition for 3rd/4th spot.
Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Fraser
O'Marra, VandeVelde, Kytnar, House
Lander, Martindale
Will Pitlick turn pro and will he bubble up on the right wing or center?
Well, I'm not sure you can look at it in a vacuum like that. I mean, Strudwick and MacIntyre and guys like that, it's an easy call. But if you ask me if I should trade Gagner, I don't have an answer; obviously I'd need to know what we're getting in return, but I'd also need to know who the Oilers are playing at centre. ??? doesn't really cut it.
ReplyDeleteWow...nice assist by RNH on the Rebels tying PP goal in the 3rd period.
ReplyDeleteHard to watch hockey in non-HD!!!
Hall 3.75
ReplyDeleteEberle 1.58
Omark 0.88
Paajarvi 1.53
Horcoff 5.5
Hartikanen 0.88
Vanvelde 0.85
Brule 1.85
Larsson 3.75
Whitney 4
Gilbert 4
Petry 1
Peckham 0.56
Dubnyk 0.8
#13 Forward 0.75
#14 Forward 0.75
#7 Defenceman 0.75
cap hit for 17 players 33.18
nhl salary cap is 59.4 million
have 26.2 million for 6 players
#1 Centre
#2 Centre
#3 LW
#3 RH
#3 Defenceman
#1 Goalie
Gord:
ReplyDeleteI saw that RNH assist and thought "Taylor Hall would bury that pass ten times out of ten."
That skinny kid would look outstanding with 4 riding shotgun.
Fernando:
ReplyDeleteYou're assuming Larsson would be a #1 capable guy next year?
I want a pound of whatever it is you're smoking.
Well, I think you're also dreaming in technicolour if you've got Larsson in as a top pairing NHL defenseman next year.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I don't fundamentally disagree with you - I'm just saying that your strategy amounts to "get good players at reasonable rates, and use them to replace some of the Oilers' bad and/or injury-prone players".
well im hoping we would get some good assets/players for cogs, gagner, hemsky, i mean they are no slouches. but yeah past that i would just be guessing which players could fill those holes. i just did that lineup for fun
ReplyDeletecertainly hope that management and coaching slow down on bring these rookies up before they're ready whether that would be from junior to the AHL or AHL to the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI don't mind the 30th place hockey so long as there is a pay off, but when I see guys who have no business being in the NHL getting skated around I can't help but think this can't be good for their development.
I've read a lot of trade Sam Gagner posts over the last few months on the Oilogosphere, but I wonder how much of that is the fact that he was rushed to NHL long before he was ready. Would the trade Gagner birds be out if this was only his 2nd year in the NHL instead of his 4th? I blame the lack of perceived development on management more so than Sam in this case.
If there is no Hall or Seguin in this draft, I hope they leave the Nuges and Larsson's in their respective leagues to mature their games, give them their AHL if they require it and go from there.
We're most likely a lottery team again next year, what's the harm?
Wait a tic...
ReplyDeleteIs Griffin Reinhart back playing hockey this year? I thought he was beyond fucked up.
In other news, this RNH kid is pretty good.
Any one know what's happening with Taylor Fedun? He's not listed on the Baron's roster. I was hoping he and Tanner House, he's on the OKC roster and suited up for one game, would get some time this year to see what they've got.
ReplyDeleteFernando:
ReplyDeleteYou're assuming Larsson would be a #1 capable guy next year?
I want a pound of whatever it is you're smoking.
nah i just put him on the top pair, i think he is capable of 18 mins a night
Rich
ReplyDeleteMy comment was that the Oilers will, yet again, fail to fill a GAPING HOLE in their lineup, PK FO centre man and then when it doesn't work, leak it to their EJ press guy to blame someone (CVD) who underperformed in the AHL for not jumping to and excelling in the NHL.
Whereas the correct Q to ask is "Steve?Kevin how many consecutive years can you purport to be an NHL roster and not have someone capable of winning a draw"?
Course if Matheson asks management that Q he will be frozen out moving forward
Hall 3.75
ReplyDeleteEberle 1.58
...
cap hit for 17 players 33.18
nhl salary cap is 59.4 million
have 26.2 million for 6 players
#1 Centre
#2 Centre
#3 LW
#3 RH
#3 Defenceman
#1 Goalie
I notice that you did not include Nikki ReKhab in your cap calculations. Since it's a 35+ contract, they're still stuck with his cap hit even if they bury him in the minors.
For that matter, they're stuck with it if he retires, has his contract bought out, or (according to someone on Oilersnation a few months back) is assassinated by hitmen hired by Kevin Lowe.
I think Taylor Fedun had to go back to college to finish building his hovercraft.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers could use a hovercraft on their D corps right now.
ReplyDeletewhy did the devils send rolston down to the minors a few times this year if his cap hit still counts (he was over 35 when he signed his contract)- are you sure putting khabby in the minors would not take his cap hit off the books?
ReplyDeleteare you sure putting khabby in the minors would not take his cap hit off the books?
ReplyDeleteYes. Somehow getting another team to take him (by trade, waivers, whatever), LTIR, or his agreeing to void the contract are the only ways we can escape that cap hit. Buy-out, retirement, and AHL all leave us with the full hit.
And actually, I'm not even positive about the voiding thing. I presume that if he refuses to report we can void it and escape the cap hit, but maybe not.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, LT, do you have any post planned to bid adieu to Rod Phillips? You two are sort of linked in my mind: he's what kept me an Oilers' fan during the mid-nineties, and you're what's kept me an Oilers' fan since 2006.
ReplyDelete(Am I damning you or thanking you?)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteno matter what they do this summer is right.
ReplyDeletelast summer acquired?:
Vandermeer
Foster
Fraser
we know they have 2 first round draft picks.
they won't spend any money this summer either.
book it.
56 should make the team out of camp next year. His game is well suited for the NHL and the 2011-2012 Oiler roster.
ReplyDeletewhy did the devils send rolston down to the minors if it didnt save them any cap space? he signed a over 35 contract
ReplyDeletewhy did the devils send rolston down to the minors if it didnt save them any cap space?
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to ask them. NHL Numbers confirms that the Devils are on the hook for his entire $5.062 million cap number this year, though (and were last year too).
One uninformed hypothesis: they wanted to expose him to re-entry waivers?
ReplyDeleteHe's Sheldon Souray's long lost twin?
ReplyDelete@steve_smith & Saint Fernando:
ReplyDeleteCorrect, the new jersey devils exposed Rolston to waivers and re-entry waivers in the hopes that someone would pick up and relieve their cap hit issues. As he was signed over 35, Rolston's salary DOES count against the salary cap regardless if he is playing in the minors or he retires.
http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2010/12/14/brian-rolston-placed-on-waivers-by-the-new-jersey-devils/
Well, they could have put him on waivers without assigning him - not re-entry waivers though, I don't think.
ReplyDeleteokay so 22 million for 6 players
ReplyDeletenumber one centre
number two centre
number three LW
number three RH
number three D
number one D
make it happen tambo!
i meant number one G instead of number one G
ReplyDeletei meannnnnn
ReplyDeletenumber one G instead of number one D (how do i edit a comment)