What now?
We've been talking about Hemsky and Penner for a month now and I'll be happy when the deadline is done. I'd be thrilled if both Hemsky and Penner were still Oilers but wouldn't bet a plug nickel on it.
--
There are 45 NHL players with 20 or more goals so far this season; the Oilers have two (Hall & Penner) and there's a chance more Oilers could reach that plateau (Hemsky, Gagner, Jones, Eberle). Theo Peckham is among the top 10 in the NHL in pims this season, and Penner is among the top 20 or so in SH% this season. Other than that, it's hard to find black ink on this team. RED ink is everywhere, however.
--
It was a lots of fun to watch Taylor Hall the other day. Scoring three goals and taking the game into his own hands has happened before in Oiler history, but it was awhile ago. I'm glad for the opportunity to watch this young man in his rookie season. Remember it, these gifted kids don't come along every year.
Seriously.
--
Minnesota Wild players will wear custom-designed camouflage jerseys during warm-ups before tonight's game to honor the National Guard.
--
Eric Duhatschek has a new column up and it's Hemsky-heavy. Here's the article and here's a quote:
- Weirdly, the best destination for Hemsky might be the Washington Capitals, who reinforced their blueline earlier this season by acquiring Scott Hannan from Colorado. But the Caps are suddenly only middle of the pack offensively after running away with the league’s overall scoring title last year. Hemsky could play a top-six role on a Washington team that was considered a Stanley Cup favourite going into the season, but may not even earn home-ice advantage in the opening playoff round.
--
Since Jim Matheson hinted that the Oilers prefer Adam Larsson, it's probably about time we started paying attention to him. Here's a quote from his WJC partner Fredrik Styrman:
- "I think Adam is better than Hedman in his draft year, but that's my opinion. He's more stick handling and can move the puck quick. That's the big thing, and he can hit too. He's a strong guy and he's big. I think he has a great future (in North America)."
- "Hedman was big, of course, and strong and Adam is smaller but he makes up for that with smartness. He's really smart with the puck and tough. He won't back down from anything and even fought a 30-year-old in Swedish league. He just has this glow in his eyes … you know he's going to be a great player."
Solid post, and I think most of us thinking fans are in agreement with what you've said here LT. I expect that if it came right down to it, if we had a choice between Toonces doing too much, or not doing anything, most people would rather see him unplug his phone and play with his hockey cards - evaluating. Probably better value there than moving our face cards for maybes and never will bes.
ReplyDeleteI am a big Larsson fan, but the 30 year old that Larsson fought was Daniel Corso (5'10" 180#) and it wasn't pretty. Larsson was only 17 and didn't drop his gloves (match penalty in SEL). Corso bloodied him up badly.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUkrrO887oU
Before I head into work:
ReplyDelete1) The paragraph above the one you quote about Hemsky is less scary.
2) Sure, having a player with glowing eyes sounds cool but can we measure that glow? Players-who-shit-their-pants/60?
Showerhead: Actually, with this Oiler teams that should be an official stat. :-)
ReplyDeleteEliteprospects updated their profile on Larsson. His listed height and weight is now 6'3" and 220 pounds.
ReplyDeleteMBS really has his work cut out for him in deciding between Larsson, Couturier, and RNH. The biggest concern I have is whether his WHL bias will play into the decision-making process. That, combined with less than stellar European drafting by his staff in the recent past may move him away from Larsson.
I think the right choice is Larsson, but I'm still fine with trusting MBS, despite the above caveats.
We'll have to see how the lottery shakes out.
ReplyDeleteIf were at #1 again, Couturier could be too good to pass up.
Larsson would be the best choice moving forward, IMO.
He could end up somewhere between Hedman and Lidstrom, and regardless where he places on that scale 4-5 years into the league, that's a player this system sorely needs.
I just hope if they do take Larsson, they don't repeat the Paajarvi mistake (if that would even be considered it a mistake in this lost NHL season) and let him acclimate to the North American game in the AHL.
I'm attending the game tonight at the X. Eight rows up behind the Oilers bench. Normally I'd wear my Cogs jersey, but after Saturday, my new Hall jersey makes it's debut.
ReplyDeleteBeing that I'm an idiot, I forgot my camera so it's gonna be all cell phone pics. Hopefully I'll get some good shots.
WARNING: this is game 9 I've been to at the X for the Oilers. They are 0-8. Maybe I shouldn't go...
Also, for a scouting report that is less glowing eye bullshit, Kirke Luedeke said this at Bruins Draft Watch:
ReplyDelete"Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea 6-2, 205 Shoots: R 21 NOV 92 (Eligible in 2011)
As of now, the prime competition for top overall selection in next year's draft, along with Drummondville forward Sean Couturier. A fluid and powerful skater who gets up to speed quickly and can change directions/recover rapidly. Excellent athlete; shows very strong balance and opens his hips/pivots well. Reads and anticipates the play and transitions the puck rapidly up the ice. Possesses an absolute howitzer for a shot; will wind up and drive the puck with violent torque, or is smart enough to recognize when time/space is limited and snaps off a hard, low bullet from the point. Creative; identifies shooting or passing lanes and then hits them with the appropriate play. A potential franchise cornerstone-type 'D' who can do it all. His biggest challenge next season will be to overcome the inevitable dissection of his game by scouts who have seen him emerge as a premier talent and will be looking to pick him apart in 2010-11. "
http://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/2010/09/adam-larsson-could-you-be-one.html
My favorite part of the Duhatschek piece:
ReplyDeleteHemsky is marginally in play, which is to say, if someone offers the Oilers extraordinary value for him, he’s gone. But if teams are offering mid-level players, prospects and/or picks, well, Edmonton doesn’t feel any pressing need to usher him out of town either. A stalemate right now.
Hold fast v3.0!!!
With Koivu out with a broken finger, the Oilers have a real chance to win tonight.
They never, ever win in MIN, so it should happen tonight.
My impression from the Matheson articles was that he was urging them to take Larsson. Larsson is Matty's preference, not the Oil's.
ReplyDeleteThere's no way on earth the Oilers have done their draft board already.
With respect to Penner and Hemsky, when they don't get traded at the deadline, we get to go through this all over again at the draft.
And then again all summer long till they're signed to extensions.
I think we should call it "The Summer of Dennis".
The main thing I'm wondering about today is what new injury can the Oilers give Brule? Or is he actually playing tonight?
LT: At the level Kuznetzov is playing right now (Above Ovechkin, Malkin etc) it would be really surprising for him not to come to NA.
ReplyDeleteDo you think they'l intentionally miss the best man for that? (Statistically the kid is in a very elite group and topping it).
It seems Russians are the thing to buy low, and the smart move. The highlight kids usually always come up to NA. All those who didn't come were doubted to make the roster, very old or simply not caring (Radulov).
Larsson maybe be a good pick, but he still lacks the physical play and at best he would be a good 3-4 defenseman. As to Matheson I'm surprised anybody still reads his crap or even believes it.
ReplyDeleteI had the glow in my eyes once but it was beaten out of me by a mortgage and a regular job.
ReplyDeleteOr it might have been the penicillin. That certainly stopped the dripping achy pus thing.
I think I'll go on Kirk Luedeke's assessment rather than Archie's. But thanks anyway!
ReplyDeleteHe just has this glow in his eyes … you know he's going to be a great player."
ReplyDeleteI hope he is more Terminator than Cylon Warrior. Those Cylons moved worse than SMac.
I think we should call it "The Summer of Dennis".
Very nice.
Numbers are in complete contradiction with the reports on Larsson.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the right move is. We are all missing a bit of data right now:
ReplyDelete1. What is the liklihood of Hemsky or Penner re-signing here from 'I will happily sign a discount contract so I can be a part of this up and coming team' to 'I would not sign here if Daryl Katz traded fortunes with me'
2. What do their wives, girlfriends want.
3. What is available in return (i.e. could Hemsky garner us a top notch square peg?)
4. How good are they in the room - 'Strudwick good' or 'Moreau good'
Larsson maybe be a good pick, but he still lacks the physical play and at best he would be a good 3-4 defenseman.
ReplyDeleteYou have no idea if this is true. Nobody in the know things he can't be a top pairing defenseman.
Doubt they'd part with Carlson, so...Hemsky & Smid for Alzner and Steckel?
ReplyDeleteAlzner was an amazing shutdown dman with the Hitmen. He also has a repoire with Plante which might help him break into the league as well, but that's just my guess.
ReplyDeletePlus I'd say Hemsky could get Alzner and Steckel on his own so if they actually wanted Smid then you should go for their first as well.
ReplyDeleteJesus we'd get robbed on that.
ReplyDeleteSB: You're oozing WHL bias. Like it's worst than my Pacio thing.
How is it bias to say he was amazing in the WHL?
ReplyDeleteDo you know what bias is?
SB: Yes I know. I just think you're in love with WHL prospects.
ReplyDeleteBackstrom broke his thumb.
ReplyDeleteHowever he is 'day to day' Maybe Caps get a little moe desperate. Meh lets see. As long as we are getting a super-package. None of that simmonds, Tuebert and 1st
McKenzie has a piece up where he implies it would be harder to get Simmonds than Schenn. Weird, but he's right fairly regularly.
ReplyDelete"Other targets for L.A. may include Edmonton's Ales Hemsky, and to a lesser extent Dustin Penner... but if the Kings are to part with Brayden Schenn or, and this is a real long shot, Wayne Simmonds, it's going to take an astronomical contract player coming back. Personally, I would be leery of any Kings' trade rumor involving Simmonds or any other young, core player on the Kings' roster."
http://tsn.ca/blogs/bob_mckenzie/?id=354844
And given that Simmonds has a role on the Kings, it doesn't make as much sense for them to move him at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteI mean, Hemsky is a big upgrade, but ideally, teams with a chance want to add players without losing roster players. No?
That's why Hemsky for Steckel or Alzner + makes even less sense to me. Hemsky is an upgrade on Steckel, but he's just one guy and the Caps would be losing a core D-man w/no better replacement. That might even hurt them in the short term unless they can rent a D-man for prospects or something.
Well I do attend plenty of WHL games so I'm more comfortable speaking of it's players then other junior leagues.
ReplyDeleteThat said, Alzner was one of the best dmen in the WHL at the time and he played a few years with Plante. So there is that connection.
There is no real bias in stating that. But maybe I can just cut and paste player stats from other sites and leave it at that. That will sure make for interesting conversation on this blog about hockey.
Couturier is going to fall out of the top 5 and possibly the top 10. He doesn't warrant discussion as a #1 pick right now.
ReplyDelete"Numbers are in complete contradiction with the reports on Larsson."
ReplyDeleteAside from his 16/17 year old season where he had as many points as Paajarvi in his 17/18 year old season right?
Couturier is going to fall out of the top 5 and possibly the top 10. He doesn't warrant discussion as a #1 pick right now.
ReplyDeleteThis is a troll but it also won't happen.
It could happen to Couturier, I was ranked in the top five my draft year until a scout saw me play at the neighbourhood rink. That killed the buzz and I wasn't even drafted.
ReplyDeleteFor those who have not read the article by the Hat here is the word on Hemsky:
"But if Lombardi wasn’t prepared to trade hot junior prospect Braydon Schenn for either Iginla or Richards, why would he swap him for Hemsky, who is a good player, but not in their category? Hemsky is marginally in play, which is to say, if someone offers the Oilers extraordinary value for him, he’s gone. But if teams are offering mid-level players, prospects and/or picks, well, Edmonton doesn’t feel any pressing need to usher him out of town either."
Same as we have been hearing all round. I don't think 83 goes anywhere.
Inspired by the post, and because I'm bored, here's some more Oilers finding their way into the top 10(or close) in various categories:
ReplyDeleteTom Gilbert - 11th in Blocked shots (126)
Tom Gilbert - 6th in Giveaways(64)
Tom Gilbert -1st in EV GAON (63)
Sam Gagner -6th in EV GAON (54)
Ales Hemsky -6th in EV P/60 (3.12)
Linus Omark -2nd in EV GAON/60 (4.01)
Sam Gagner -6th in EV GAON/60 (3.90)
Tom Gilbert -1st in PK GAON
Jason Strudwick - Tied 6th in Blocked Shots for per 60 (19.9)
Jeff Petry - 1st in EV GOAFF/60 (3.68)
Liam Reddox - 4th in EV GAOFF/60 (3.35)
Jason Strudwick - 10th worst EV CORSI ON (-22.58)
Ales Hemsky - 2nd in EV team SH% (13.19)
Ryan Whitney - 5th in EV team SH% (12.5)
JF Jacques - 12 in EV team Sv%(.952)
Linus Omark - Worst EV team Sv% (.855)
Sam Gagner - 6th worst EV team Sv% (.871)
Jeff Petry - 13th worst EV team Sv% (.878)
Ryan Whitney -3rd in PDO (1060)
Ryan Whitney -13th in PP TOI/60 (4.12)
Taylor Hall -9th in penalties against PAON.60 (5.4)
Taylor Hall -5th in individual penalties drawn PDRAW/60(2.1)
Among players with more than .98 minutes per game pk time:
Jordan Eberle - worst Sv% (.680)
Shawn Horcoff - 3rd worst Sv% (.732)
Tom Gilbert - 20th worst sv%(.819)
Jordan Eberle -Best SH%(66.7%)
Among players with 1 minute or more PP time /60
Linus Omark - 6th worst team SH%(4.69%)
Team Stats
Most giveaways, with a bullet(741)
Worst FO% (44.1%)
And I'll end on a humorous note:
Ethan Moreau -2nd in team penalties taken PFON/60 (7.8)
Right now, I like Larsson at #1.
ReplyDeleteBut this year we might not finish last. We are winning some games now...
Go Minnesota! ???
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"But if Lombardi wasn’t prepared to trade hot junior prospect Braydon Schenn for either Iginla or Richards, why would he swap him for Hemsky, who is a good player, but not in their category?
ReplyDeleteThis seems kind of lazy. Iginla isn't what he used to be and he's signed to a big cap hit for a few more years.
Richards is a rental with a concussion issue at the moment.
Hemsky is the youngest of the three with another full season at a very reasonable cap hit.
Sure Hemsky isn't in their league if you complete disregard contracts, cap hits, and age.
This link was originally posted by Bryn Griffiths over at his blog, Mighty Mouth, but it is so damned funny and well-written, I had to post it here too:
ReplyDeletePress box rules.
Apologies to Bryn.
CSimpson,
ReplyDeleteYou missed Khabibulin, who is near the league lead for worst save percentage in the league.
That influences all those GAON numbers as much as the play of any of those players.
I didn't really feel the need to add context to the bad numbers. We all know what conditions these guys are playing in.
ReplyDeleteIf either of Kuznetsov or Carlsson are involved in Hemsky trade offers, I think the Oilers should be persuing it.
ReplyDeleteI don't have anything to add to the trade or draft speculation that hasn't been said already.
ReplyDeleteWhat I do have to say though is that I hate the fricking song they play after the Wild score and here's hoping we don't have to hear it tonight.
Jon K: No the present year where he regressed and got injured for an extender period of time.
ReplyDeleteSB: I just meant you generally push towards them, in the specific case, I think Hemsky is worth way more than Alzner, but you seemed okay with that (Implicitily, correct me if i'm wrong) and it just didn't jive with other reactions for trades with Hemsky.
Anyway. It's a reaction comment, and i've probably said something that doesn't make sense, happens to everyone.
Kris: Well they got 6 d-men. Alzner is part of theyr ''Core'' but he's not unreplacable, surely a 2nd pick would grab them something similar (Without the better future) (Green, Carlson (Stop killing his name), Erskine, Schuktz, Poti, Hannan)).
PM Bouchard...ugh. Maybe Peckham can "target" him like he did with Eriksson that one game.
ReplyDeleteIf it's not too much to ask, maybe someone can check Clutterbuck a bit while we're at it so he doesn't get 7 shots on net again.
Khabibulin starts and the lines are unchanged, per Tencer.
Smarmy - you'll have to take that up with Duhatschek, I'm just the messenger, although I am lazy
ReplyDeleteI'd rate Richards higher and even as a rental he should bring a crazy price, as long as he's symptom free. He's one of the best players in the league.
As for Ales and Iggy well that's Duhatschek's opinion, I'd likely rate them about even but of course Hemsky's injury issues need to be considered too. Jarmoe is durable.
If you were to ask media and GMs in a poll though I would bet the vast majority would rate Hemsky third, even with the factors you sited. Hemsky is underrated.
Kris,
ReplyDeleteLuckily the team most likely to replace the Oil at 30th is OTT whose prospect pool is deeper at D than any other position.
If it goes OTT,EDM I bet EDM gets Larsson.
that's good stuff spOILer
ReplyDeleteWG - except if Boston wins the lottery with Toronto's pick. Then it goes Bos, Ott, Edm.
ReplyDeleteBlack Dog...
ReplyDeleteYup, good for a chuckle. Pretty sure that code is posted on Mike Winters' bathroom wall. Nyuk nyuk.
Ribs...
No Brule? NO BRULE? Wasn't he supposed to have one more "contact practice" and then he was to make his grand return against ATL per Renney?
Or is he being superstitious about winning streaks? What? In case we fall out of the playoff race?
How are we supposed to trade his ass when he hasn't been seen on an ice rink this decade?
Deano: And the universe collapses.
ReplyDelete@ Deano
ReplyDeleteI think Boston takes another center ;)
flamingpavelbure said...
ReplyDeleteJon K: No the present year where he regressed and got injured for an extender period of time.
If Larsson has been injured alot, the possibility that he has been playing injured needs to be taken into consideration.
Vic had a great post back in the day on Smyth's 01-02 season showing how his comeback from a broken ankle absolutely killed his game that year. The boxcars were not that bad, especially since he had been killing it pre-injury, but everything else took a beating. Now Vic didn't account for eye glow, but that's his own personal character flaw.
People laud players that play hurt in any sport, but the truth is that they usually aren't very good when they come back early.
RQ...
ReplyDeleteGroin in Larsson's case.
That, combined with less than stellar European drafting by his staff in the recent past may move him away from Larsson.
ReplyDeleteSorry, but I gotta jump on this. Where exactly is MBS' so called "less than stellar Euro drafting" you're alluding to? The only out and out miss I see in Stu's career from Europe is Johan Motin, and he was a 4th rounder. 2008's Hartikainen looks like a solid bet to have a career, the 2009 Swedes should be staples in Edmonton for the next decade and Rajala is putting up good numbers in the SM-Liiga for a 4th rounder. From the 2010 draft there's only a 7th round pick in Kristians Pelss.
Where's the bad track record here?
Deano,
ReplyDeleteI did say most likely about OTT, its not a lock given the lottery and 25% of the games still left to play.
Smarmy - Oilers site has this in it's injury report for todays game...
ReplyDeleteEdmonton forward Gilbert Brule and defenseman Ryan Whitney are out with ankle injuries.
I think Omark has been poisoning his food or something. The evil looking little bugger.
http://www.640toronto.com/HostsandShows/BillWatters/Audio.aspx
ReplyDeleteYesterday Dreger on the trades and comments on Hemmer-LA Kings at around the 2:25 mark
Love your new radio show Lowetide.
Long time reader
Kev
Fans of Larsson's SEL team have suggested that he's been playing with the dregs this year, on the PP and at EV. Probably explains his numbers somewhat as well. Rundblad on the other hand took over that role and ran with it.
ReplyDeleteHe was leading his team in +/- before injury as well.
In any case, his numbers this year aren't "complete contradiction" of anything in his scouting reports.
I think with Larsson we just don't know because he plays in some dark viking wasteland.
ReplyDeleteHe looked like he had a nice tool kit in the World Juniors and if he was playing with a bad groin then that's even more amazing.
I could see the Oilers thinking long and hard about him.
@Ribs
ReplyDeleteHaha, maybe one of Omarks legion of swedish fans. Poor Brule, if he ever gets healthy he'll be the most hated man in Scandinavia since, well... I can't think of anyone. I even google searched sweden + hated man.
Based on my analysis of player's eye glow in the NHL, it's become quite clear that AL already has almost 43% more eye-glow than the average NHL player, and 15% more than players who have a positive corsi three out of five years when Bettman has been the head of the NHL and Kevin Lowe has been a vindictive tool.
ReplyDeleteIt has to be noted that these numbers are heavily influenced by the complete lack of eye-glow that sidney crosby has, aince he sold his soul to become the player he is today, and the excessive eyeglow of Alex Ovetchkin, since he is in fact a russian robot.
When compared to other projected top picks in the 2011 draft, Larson's comparative eye-glow is actually lower than that of his contemporaries. It leads me to beleive that he is not in fact at the same level as RNH, SC, GL or even RS. As a result, the SEL has decided to turn off the lights in the arenas their players are playing in, so that when scouts come to see the players, their players will appear to have less eye-glow, and therefore hopefully hold onto more of their own talent.
Well, if Bryn Griffiths pimps it then it's Got to be good.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: not sure what that Summer of Dennis thing was so mean but I've seen this stuff play out too many times and I believe in mcKenzie more than anyone so if says that 83's leaving then I believe there's a lot to the rumours we've been hearing about.
I'll be elated if he's not moved next Monday and then we won't have to worry about it until the draft:)
I understand that something's gonna have to shake loose - be it assets or cash - to pick up the pieces we need but I see the two kids coming along and I see 10-83 with some old chem and that could be two outscoring lines as soon as 2012.
We know those vets are That good and it looks like the kids will be as well.
That's not to say I would give away 27 or that I wasn't one of the early ones to raise injury questions about 83 after that groin injury after the Ctl game but when you see rumors where the other team's best prospect isn't available well it just raises flags for someone who lived through the Pronger and Smyth trades.
Maybe you're a kid who didn't pay much attention back then or maybe you've just decided to forget it:)
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteA crazy thought: Maybe the fact that Lowe made mistakes on the Pronger and Smyth trades means its less likely that he will make the mistake again?
- Just trying the get you thru the next week or so...
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteno biggie, was just alluding to what will be our collective neuroses if the Penner and Hemsky extension signings drag on this summer without resolution, just coz you've done the most obvious fretting to this point.
Forget the Pronger and Smyth trades. Remember that Weight trade? Lowe really set the table with that one.
ReplyDeleteSB: I thought about that one, don't worry;), but I didn't want to depress everyone Too much;)
ReplyDeleteBTW, what would it take to get Stastny?
thirteen arms and twenty legs.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the owners are wanting to cut salary. They dealt off a ton of guys on the nuggets as well.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Gagner and some sort of picks/prospects would intrigue them.
BTW, I guess there's no market for 16? The Oilers are shelving 67 even though they'd admitted he's healthy but he can't get in and neither can 16.
ReplyDeleteProbably not though. I don't know if the Oilers are a good match or what the Avs GM may be trying to do.
ReplyDelete89 and a D other than 58?
ReplyDeleteget it done unless there's something I'm missing about him.
we've got the space to take on his salary.
Matheson...
ReplyDeleteOff Tuesday’s morning skate, Gilbert Brule will remain on injured reserve for at least another game even though he’s skating hard, which means no other forward is being sent to OK city to put him on the roster.
“It’s inevitable that Gilbert is going to step in and play. It’s a function of being ready and he appears to be,” said Renney, who would rather not tinker with his lineup. “It’s a function of not wanting to change a lineup that’s had some success (three straight wins).”
Maybe there's no difference in being a HS or still being on injured reserve but the Oilers are asking 67 to take a powder until they figure out what to do with their roster and in try Lowe's Puppet fashion it's been going on for a week.
ReplyDeletewould the world fold onto itself if any of 16-22-33 were farmed and/or released?
because it doesn't seem like there's a trade market for any of those guys and 67's taking a bullet because of it.
I'm not a Brule fan but it's a pretty shitty deal for him.
and yet another example of the paralysis of analysis that as typified the Tambellini;) era.
and by that I mean Lowe used to like to sit on his hands too unless it was time to bend over for Pronger or screw 94 with a ticket to the Island.
I'm no cap-ologist, but I can't imagine that keeping a player on IR because you don't want to play him should sit well with the PA. I know they are in enough of a bind just trying to sort out who's on first these days, but at some point I keep thinking they will want to address how badly the teams can jerk around players just to stay "under" the cap (eg. icing less than complete rosters of players for no other reason than salary).
ReplyDeleteI dunno, I guess that is jmo.
Hedman vs. Larsson
ReplyDelete1 year pre draft stats
VH = 39gp 2g2a4pts
AL = 49gp 4g13a17pts
Draft year stats
VH = 43gp 7g14a21pts
AL = 30gp 1g8a9pts
You can see why AL had all the hype coming into the season. He was blowing the field away as a 16-17 year old, while playing in the second toughest league in the world. He has stepped into a bit of a hole offensively this year, with talk of a groin injury. If you look at MBS history, he is attracted to players with great numbers coming into the draft year and injuries dropping them on draft day. See Hamilton and Martindale. If AL was putting up even last years numbers, he would be number one without question. Now you have to ask yourself if this year is the norm or the exception because of injury. With the questions surrounding all of the group at the top, I couldn't imagine passing on AL if the opportunity arose.
This Brule saga is hilarious. Toonces just can't flush Jacques or Fraser.
ReplyDeleteLet's say that the MC79/RiversQ theory about injuries and the drop off in a player's performance when he comes back is true for Adam Larsson... IE that he is a great defenseman whose performance has dipped because he hasn't fully recovered or and that you can fully expect his ability and boxcars to return to their previous levels after a long, restful summer. Is this:
ReplyDeleteA) A reason to draft Larsson because clearly it was just the injury holding back his boxcars while his all-world ability remains intact?
B) A reason not to draft Larsson because groin injuries recur?
Working under the assumption given, which would you choose?
I think you can draft him and leave him in the SEL for another year giving you an excuse to tank another year.
ReplyDeleteToonces would love that.
jon k: That, combined with less than stellar European drafting by his staff in the recent past may move him away from Larsson.
ReplyDeletedg: Where's the bad track record here?
Jon's comment is mystifying, I agree totally with dg. And he even forgot to include Marincin, which might turn out to be the brightest feather in MBS' cap.
It is less than a week to the trade deadline. Why put somebody on waivers when there may be a spot for Brule next Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteIf they are then sent down, they have to go through recall.
A couple of months ago "everyone" was saying that Hall should be in junior, and Paajarvi should be in the AHL, and now people are complaining that the Oilers might leave Larsson in Sweden for another year if they draft him.
ReplyDeletenow people are complaining that the Oilers might leave Larsson in Sweden for another year
ReplyDeleteIf they draft Larrson, and I think they should, I'll be complaining if they DON'T leave him in Sweden for another year.
Can only please a few of the people some of the time.
I think the right place for Larsson next season is the AHL.
ReplyDeleteI can't see Stastny moving without at least one 1st rounder going back the other way, if not two.
ReplyDeleteI'm not entirely sure, but it seems reccurent that kid with injury trouble in the 1st round seem to not snap out of it.
ReplyDeleteI know it makes them look weaker than they are but wouldn't that also affect his devellopment?
I'm not too strong on drafting kids with injuries at that age, but maybe someone can prove me wrong (1st rounders only)
Kypreos has been beaking all day that the Avalanche aren't moving Stastny...If that means anything to anyone.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about availability bias, Smarmy Boss. The cure for availability bias is to propound on things you know nothing about.
ReplyDeleteJust add "within the WHL" every so often so people don't confuse availability bias with boner bias.
If they are then sent down, they have to go through recall.
ReplyDeleteAnd with some luck someone will take them off our hands.
This is Fraser, Jacques, and Brule we're talking about here, yeah? No one took Stortini, though, or any number of better players or better contracts.
I think management can move virtually anyone on this team in the bottom 6 through waivers and even reentry waivers without any worry whatsoever. The same was true of JDD.
Guys who have to clear waivers but wouldn't: Gagner, Cogliano, Gilbert, Hemsky, and Penner, Peckham (so cheap).
Guys who might not clear waivers but probably wouldn't clear reentry: Wanderandveer, Foster, Horcoff, Brule (?)
If Stasny really were available you have to think that Toronto would be all over that. There aren't too many first line centers available and the word is that Toronto isn't where Richards wants to go.
ReplyDeleteIf Toronto offer up Grabovski, two firsts and a prospect - maybe one of their goalies Colorado would at least have to think about that.
A couple of months ago "everyone" was saying that Hall should be in junior, and Paajarvi should be in the AHL, and now people are complaining that the Oilers might leave Larsson in Sweden for another year if they draft him.
ReplyDeleteExcept nobody is complaining. Well maybe you are.
A while back somebody had posted a link to a website where you could find all the NHL games that were streaming on a given night. I was wondering if somebody could be so kind as to post it again. My computer came down with a real tough virus, the end result being that I lost everything on my laptop. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteMaybe there's no difference in being a HS or still being on injured reserve but the Oilers are asking 67 to take a powder until they figure out what to do with their roster and in try Lowe's Puppet fashion it's been going on for a week.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure why the Oilers would be dumping anyone right before the trade deadline. If the moving van pulls up they might be short bodies.
They'd look pretty foolish sending down Brule only to have him claimed on re-entry by a contender. He'd surely go on a Pisani-2006 like run and the Oilers would be on the hook for 1/2 of it.
Once "Lowe" trades Hemmer, Penner, and Gagner for those magic beans everyone keeps complaining about, Brule, Fraser, and SMac will get all the first line icetime they can handle.
From Dreger's 3 Things Report:
ReplyDeleteThe Leafs - along with a number of other teams - have also expressed an interest in Oilers forward Dustin Penner.
The Oilers' message remains consistent for both Penner and Ales Hemsky in that there is no pressure to trade either given the fact that both players have a year remaining on their contracts.
The standard minimum of a first-round draft pick or highly-touted prospect is likely to be the sticker price for Penner if - or when - Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini starts accepting offers.
Dennis, the following is the only it where I can see any reference by BobbyMac to Hemsky:
Other targets for L.A. may include Edmonton's Ales Hemsky, and to a lesser extent Dustin Penner, and Florida's David Booth.
Which makes it sound as if the action is coming from LA's end and not Edmonton's. He certainly doesn't imply Hemsky is on the block.
it = bit
ReplyDelete@Albertaman
ReplyDeleteHere's two for ya:
http://www.myp2pforum.eu/forums/29-NHL-Icehockey
http://www.soccertvlive.net/sport/ice-hockey.html
@ CSimpson,
ReplyDeleteThanks buddy.
The standard minimum of a first-round draft pick or highly-touted prospect is likely to be the sticker price for Penner if - or when - Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini starts accepting offers.
ReplyDeleteIt bloody well be both to start, not either/or.
Large bodied men who score 25 goal will being uninterested 32.4% of the time are pretty freaking rare in the NHL.
Let alone one on a contract for 4.25MM with another year remaining.
If Burke can trade Grabovski and/or Kulemin, for Stastny or some other shiny object, he can have a lineup composed of Kessel, Phaneuf, Armstrong, Stastny, and absolutely no one else. Just those guys. No goalie. Nothing but recent Burke acquisitions.
ReplyDeleteDavid Staples with a stern look at Gagner:
ReplyDeletehttp://communities.canada.com/edmontonjournal/blogs/hockey/archive/2011/02/22/if-the-oilers-have-to-move-a-center-who-should-it-be-cogliano-or-gagner.aspx
No mention of the rookie linemates but a wonderful rip job. Oh well.
Lowetide:
ReplyDeleteWould it be fair to say Staples has a pro-Cogliano, anti-Gagner bias?
I think that's been proven via his repeated use of his highly questionable methods involving "errors" to evaluate players.
Without considering the age gap, the gap in offense between Gagner and Cogliano more than covers the alleged gap in defensive abilities between the two players, and that's why the general consensus is that Gagner is a building block and Cogliano is an expendable spare part.
LoL.
ReplyDeleteCogliano is TRYING to be a defensive player but he's still terrible. Not like he somehow became an asset now. He just upgraded his production slightly.
I've witnessed Cogs' tunnel vision in his own end too many times to expect him to turn into Todd Marchant. I don't know if he has the awareness for it. Plus the faceoffs... good god.
ReplyDeleteNice PK early on. Not giving Min a chance to set up.
ReplyDeleteWas I the only one wondering if they'd both just shatter like the T-1000 when Hemmer and Havlat collided there?
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall is Super Jesus.
ReplyDeleteI am willing to say that Taylor Hall is, as of now, the best player on the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteThat Chorney kid is strong.
ReplyDeleteA couple of times that period he bowled over Wildmen with vicious cross-checks.
Big guys, felled like spruce.
When we traded Brodziak, who did those picks turn into?
ReplyDeleteWe traded Brodziak and a 6th for a 4th and 5th round pick in 2009....
Frelbo - CBC sez we used the picks to select Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy.
ReplyDeleteBigos and Roy
ReplyDeleteYeah?
Damn you Deano!
ReplyDeleteFoster leads the NHL in blown possession with no pressure, passes into feet of team mates and havingalongstickEV/60.
ReplyDeleteHall leads the league in OZoneGleam and BeingAwesomeCauseICan/15
Ducey: you know the burden of proof says Lowe has to make a Good deal, right?
ReplyDeleteThere's a good reason why I always expect the worst, you know.
Also, I listed 16-22-33 as the guys I'd move In Order to get 67 off IR; there was no mention of him being waived.
Spoiler: last night McKenize was on the last question segment off Off The Record. Landesburg threw out a bunch of names rapid=fire style at him to ask him who he thought would be traded.
83 was a guy who he said Would move.
LT: the Oilers are doing 89 zero favours by putting him with 91-23 and that's a damn fact. I could go either way on 89: I like him enough to keep him but I don't love him enough where I wouldn't trade him.
But the rookie pair that 13's flanked with are Miles ahead of the rookie pair that 89's trying to work with.
In regards to this period I had the chances at 5-8; 3-4 EV and 2-4 ST.
Oilers had perhaps their best PK of the season to open the game but then went on to give up three chances on their next try.
And they had just one chance on their own couple of PP's.
Nothing happening on any forward line other than 13's and a couple of brutal passes from 41 who right now isn't an NHL player.
hunter,
ReplyDeleteDavid is actually a journalist trying his hand at hockey blogging.
True Story.
The play of Cogliano in the first just proved how bad the Oilers need a Center. To the person who said that Couturier was going to fall out of the top 5 were's your logic behind this. He was just voted as a star of the week ( second week in a row) were he scored 5 goals in 2 games.
ReplyDeletePeckham is not a very good D-man right now.
ReplyDeleteArchie: Not saying Cogs is the 2nd coming of Bobby Clarke but he did win 4 of 5 face-offs in that period.
ReplyDeleteHe was not THAT bad.
oilerdago he's not that good either
ReplyDeleteNice offside Cogs. He is that bad.
ReplyDeleteDennis, thank god he said it off the record then.
ReplyDelete;op
Cogliano is being pumped-and-hopefully dumped.
ReplyDeleteGagner has been a positive Corsi player pretty much regardless of who he has played with.
Cogliano isn't.
i.e. Cogliano can't drive a bus. Gagner can.
Cogliano is currently sitting in the front seat with two excellent bus drivers, Hall and Eberle. And Gagner is attempting to drive a bus with two troublemaking kids distracting him.
These Wild are not very wild at all.
ReplyDeleteSnooze-fest.
Go Oil!
Wreckum' has got some upper body strength, judging by that Clutterbuck shot-put he just threw.
ReplyDeleteCogliano can't drive a bus.
ReplyDeleteHmmm....
Who's makin the sticks these days?
ReplyDeleteI feel like more sticks break every year.
Omark on the point is miles better than any other option for the Oilers. It's not saying much, but he keeps possession and keeps the puck moving.
ReplyDeleteCogliano can't drive a bus.
ReplyDeleteNor can a pidgeon:
http://www.amazon.com/Dont-Let-Pigeon-Drive-Bus/dp/078681988X
I am going to fill a bus with square pegs and set it on fire.
ReplyDeleteWell, one sure-fire way to keep Hemsky in town is to have him break his wrist or something out there with Clutterbuck.
ReplyDeleteThe latest in my Oiler related cynicism: every time they start spending a lot of time in the other team's end and creating chances my inner monologue becomes, "wow, maybe they can tie it up tonight".
ReplyDeleteEven when the score is 0-0. You know, like, tonight.
And at the beginning of every game.
That should make it easier, SH.
ReplyDeleteAnother stat this team leads the league in:
ReplyDeleteBreakaways allowed right between the D-men
Weak effort by Gilbert to recover.
Dammit, had to go open my big mouth. Or whatever the typed equivalent of that phrase is.
ReplyDeleteThere is a strange sense of relief when the 4th line is out. I think it comes from knowing that they can more or less hold their own physically. It makes me dread life without Penner on the 1st line.
ReplyDeleteIf you can't make that line change there, you have serious blueline issues. 77 just not paying attention on that one.
ReplyDeleteSmid with the lazy giveaway to Havlat. Yikes.
ReplyDelete"Another stat this team leads the league in: Breakaways allowed right between the D-men"
ReplyDeleteThey got tired of being beat wide.
That was the official sign that Jones's luck has run out.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the 4th line is looking okay.
I get why trading Jones makes good sense, but dang if it wouldn't feel wrong.
ReplyDeleteOk, Cogs isn't that good either.
ReplyDeleteWonder how he'd look driving a bus instead of a pigeon?
Foster with the best shift of his life.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely brilliant vision by Omark. Best shift by Foster in an Oiler uni.
ReplyDeleteKurtis Foster just hit the net on an open chance?
ReplyDeleteApocolypse?
Foster with the save and the goal.
ReplyDeleteKurtis Foster. You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him.
ReplyDeletePowerful shot by Jacques there.
ReplyDeleteGood on Foster for jumping in there and finishing, but did he ever get pyloned behind his own net just before that to allow a grade A chance against.
ReplyDeletePump and dump!
Oilerdago, nice , best line on here in a while.
ReplyDelete26 pretty much causes a GA, gets lucky, makes a great shot and almost breaks his leg behind the net.
ReplyDeleteLuck plays no part in hockey.
Then from Louie,"From great defense comes great offense"
Lordy.
I was in the middle of a heart-felt "ppfffft" at Foster for being a softy behind his own net the he most uncharacteristically joins the rush and wings one top cheese. woo!
ReplyDeleteFuck I wish we had a Zanon. He's had a real solid game. Always seems to when we're in town.
ReplyDeleteOilerdago, still chuckling at that line. Imagine, your doorbell rings, you answer it and there is Foster asking .. SARA CONNOR??
ReplyDeleteFoster, I can't but like that Chandler-from-friends-lookin son bitch.
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe he hit the net...
ReplyDeleteYou can't 'but like' Foster?
ReplyDeleteNot that there's anything wrong with that.
You know who is playing well for CGY on the blue tonight? Steve Staios.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if he'd come back for a final year in the 5-6 role (which would turn into a 1-2 role).
:-)
@ other anon:
ReplyDeleteno no, nothing wrong at all, but he still catches a lot flack round here and other places.
Good one Jake. "Everything he is, everything he will be, depends on her".
ReplyDeleteI'm with Wolfie. Still can't believe he hit the net.
"Nigel, kick it over the bar, not under" (Jimmy McGinnity).
If Fene sticks it out into his golden years his fun little puns are going to get so endearing.
ReplyDeleteHe'll be like Bill Matheson.
Fene = Gene Principe
ReplyDeleteWow, we've got a good thread going tonight:)
ReplyDeleteSK nailed all the breakaways that happen and Derek nailed down the truth about that shift from 26:)
I have the chances at 9-15 after 40 and the Oilers have one PP chance for and two SH chances allowed.
One other thing, for the oldsters who remember Igor Ulanov and his Ulabombs - passes that either go nowhere or get picked off - the tough Russian would fit right in here tonight.
The Oilers are killing themselves with the unforced errors.
it's a shitty game to watch and I'll be glad when it's over
Yes, nothing like "a glow in his eyes" to judge a player by.
ReplyDeleteThey've been turnover kings since the streak began. It can't last with continued play like that. But they're still in this one. Let's see if they're motivated to end the streak.
ReplyDeleteThanks Cogliano for proving my point.
ReplyDeleteAnd on that note...
ReplyDeleteSo is that a tertiary, quaternary, or cretaceous error for Cogs on that goal?
ReplyDeleteI'm never saying anything nice about Cogs again.
ReplyDeleteEver.
Tripping 85 in the slot is not a penalty in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteGotta like the way Brodziak makes The Ringmaster pay every time the circus comes to town.
ReplyDeleteCurse of the ex-Oiler strikes again.
ReplyDeleteChorney out with a knee injury (per several tweeps). If only they had kept Souray up...
ReplyDeleteDown by 2, in Minnesota with Backstrom in net? Man this is going to be am exciting finish.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand??
ReplyDeleteEveryone in the paper and on the radio said that special teams weren't the problem anymore!!
They lied!!!
.... Or really don't say much different than Renney at the daily avail..
That goal like the damn magic bullet in '63. How did that find it's way in??
ReplyDeleteDennis. Kevin Lowe is just like you. He gets up in the morning and puts on his pants one leg at time.
ReplyDeleteExcept after that he goes out and makes shitty hockey decisions.
Prior to the shitty hockey decisions he helps put on Steve Tambellini's pants one leg at a time.
ReplyDeleteI know some people don't like to gamble but here's a surefire way to make money while doing so:
ReplyDelete- you bet over on all all-star games unless it's MLB and then you bet the under.
- you always take the wild and stars at home against the edmonton laughingstocks.
You're welcomed:)
Looks like 22 is learning the wrong things from those Lucic videos.
ReplyDeleteJFJ: Get on the scoresheet - check
ReplyDeleteIf 28 keeps winning the SC battle with 85 and 16 never sees the ice again, there is no reason he can't stay for cheap.
ReplyDeleteThe Oiler's haven't scored 5 on 3 ALL YEAR.
Let's watch.
Any bets on goal on the 5 on 3? Shots ?
ReplyDeletePens with some flashes tonight.
ReplyDeleteMessage received.
Why not use Hall and Hemsky on the PP? A little movement, less stationary play?
ReplyDeleteNah.
The Oilers lead the league in fans angry at the crappy 5 on 3 PP/60.
ReplyDeleteThe genius of out coaching staff is such that after Hall and Hemsky work magic on the PP one game, they dont see the ice together next game.
ReplyDeleteNot even trying to win.
Chicks dig the long ball just like Louie digs the point shot. He's pitching a tent every time Foster gets out there to beat the hell out of the end boards.
ReplyDeleteOh fer the season on the 5-3.
ReplyDeleteSpecial teams have improved indeed.
Ooohh, Bouchard with the beautiful embarrassing of Krappybulin.
ReplyDeleteNice finish to the game and helps us with the dive.
I guess.
Brutal. Goodnight folks.
ReplyDelete5 makes really bad decisions without the puck.
ReplyDelete"My partner is down on the ice? Think I'll move up and check this guy in the Ozone."
Yeah, Smid's poor play is a big, big part of the season being as bad as it is. He was pencilled in as a top 4 guy, no?
ReplyDeleteI know he's young-ish for a D-man, but we could trade him for a 7th and sign pretty much anyone and not be any worse off.
If you're gonna give away a 100 foot breakaway at least Bertuzzi that puke Clusterfuck. Don't give him a tap, let him make a perfect breakout pass then skate away...
ReplyDeleteStaubitz checked himself harder into the boards than he hit Jacques.
ReplyDeleteSince Tootoo has been busy with his program, Clutterfuck has taken over as the #2 DBag in the league.
ReplyDeleteOilers could use two of him.
Since Tootoo has been busy with his program, Clutterfuck has taken over as the #2 DBag in the league.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear, Matt Cooke is the undisputed champ, correct?
And Clutterbuck's got competition for the runner-up spot. Kesler, Burrows, Perry, Blake....it's a heated debate.
Very much like the "best player not named Crosby" debate, there's a similar "biggest dipshit not named Cooke" discussion.
I believe I heard this correctly - and please forgive me if I didn't because while I was listeing to the program I was also throwing a Bunga Bunga party - but last Sat LT had Desjardins on his show and asked him what stats he looks for when evaluating players and teams.
ReplyDeleteHe mentioned which teams can drive the bus when the games tied and said the last two cup winners had been great in this regard.
So, since the Oilers tied the game tonight I have the chances at 0-8.
Just thought I'd pass this along.
Also, the Wild are outchancing us 4 on 5 to the tune of 4 to 1.
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3590
ReplyDeleteI hated every second of that game. I want to pour kerosene on Brodziak's 'stache and throw a match. Cogliano is such a boat anchor on an offensive line. Good thing he's Bog Gainey 2.0 in his own end.
ReplyDeleteDefinately - Cooke undisputed champion of the DBags.
ReplyDeleteI've come around a bit on Kesler - he's grown up a bit.
Perry and Burrows are just really good hockey players so that works a bit against them in the Douchery dept.
Blake would be up there, and of course The Dion is in the conversation.
That mustache makes Brodziak look like he's from Vegreville.
ReplyDeleteLots of blame to go around in this one:
ReplyDelete- there was one chance created by the 10 line. that's not good enough
- the D was horrible; I think everyone made a bad pass up the middle or took a dumb penalty.
- the PP...enough said.