The club doesn't line match (home or road) and the opposition is doing big business against the 21-year old center and his two rookie wingers from Sweden. Things won't get easier tonight in Nashville.
--
Rumors are out there that Nashville and Edmonton may be trade partners. They got together a year ago (Grebs for a pick) but the word is it might be a bigger name this time around. Ales Hemsky's name was in a Jim Matheson EJ colymn yesterday. Preds have some wonderful things in areas of need for the Oilers, so this one is worth watching. Still hope 83 stays.
--
The Preds appear to be such a well run organization from a distance. They draft European goalies who work out, pluck tall trees from our backyard for their blue and have a nice mix of youth and veteran for the forward position. They still have David Legwand. Old timey guys like me are reminded of the way the NY Islanders were built when looking at Nashville. Seriously. The Islanders went through about five years of playoff heartbreak before they found glory, the Preds have had their share too.
Matheson also said that Tambellini doesn't want Souray around this team so he has to be sure someone will take him on re-entry.
ReplyDeleteHopefully this is just Matheson not understanding how waivers work. If Matheson is quoting Tambellini it means Tambellini doesn't realize he can recall Souray and if he's not claimed just re-assign him to Hershey.
Which would be par for the course.
So LT, who would you target from Nashville if they do come calling for Hemsky?
ReplyDeleteWhen Nashville figures out the playoff formula, they will be a formidable team for many years. The New York Islanders, good memories of those days.
ReplyDeleteLT: If you want to see an area where for the most part, Nashville excels, it's finding useful parts and plugging them into a system that helps them succeed - and not overpaying.
ReplyDeleteTry this list: Marcel Goc, Jerred Smithson, Sergei Kostitsyn, Joel Ward, Kevin Klein. Value contracts, guys who can either win a faceoff or kill a penalty and chip in a little offense.
At goalie, these guys just keeping plugging them in and when they get too expensive, they're allowed to walk: Vokoun, Mason, Ellis and now Pekka Rinne (and behind him is Lindback).
I'd hate to see either Hemsky or Penner go, but I'd hate more if Penner left because at least the big fella stays healthy and is not going to be intimidated.
For Hemsky to go Nashville's way, we'd have to pick up a contract on someone who they think they can't resign plus a prospect. The way Nashville scouts and drafts, I'd be happy with anything they have as they make few mistakes.
Nashville does more with less than I think any other team does. Their amateur and pro scouting + their development systems seems to be impeccable. Real moneyball stuff.
ReplyDeletePlus - if not for the crazy game where Chicago wins in OT -- the preds likely would have gone on to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year.
They outplayed Chicago (Chicago was not their best) that round.
@ LT - Kind of off topic but I posted a question the other day which was not answered and I am hoping you may have an answer.
ReplyDeleteWith all the discussion of face off percentages and how it affects a team I am of the opinion a high passing percentage would have a much higher correlation to on ice success.
Do you know if any site out there tracks this and how the bottom teams compare to the elite teams in percents?
By the eye it seems the Oilers have to be one of the worst teams at connecting passes and I think this more so than the face offs are causing them the most grief.
MDF, that is somewhat incorporated into the Giveaway stat, which is tracked by the NHL.
ReplyDeleteLT - are you saying that if our coaching staff were exploiting matchups more effectively, these guys would be terrorizing the opponents' weaker lines? I'd tend to agree even though I'm not a fan of matching up all the time (I much prefer the seemingly forgotten system of shadowing with one player as opposed to a line).
ReplyDeletespOIL - The problem with the giveaway stat is that it's an absolute joke. There are many many more giveaways than it actually tracks, and one of the things it tends to show is that if you are among the best players in the league, you also give the puck away a ton (because you have it a ton).
Sounds like a percentage stat is needed, with more plays counting as giveaways.
We can't send Hemsky to Nashville. That would just be cruel.
ReplyDeleteI'm not as fond of Penner but I likely wouldn't be that mean to him either.
So what are we looking at here? I imagine their defense stays intact for the playoffs and their current forwards are a bunch of middle of the pack guys. So we're looking for Blum? Ellis? and picks?
I'd trade them Vandermeer for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd. Or does that just work on nutbag Flames GMs?
The Preds make me think of an hockey version of the Expos.
ReplyDeletePersonally now a fan because of Kostitsyn and all the weird mixup. I like them.
Jonnnattthoooon Blum!
Blake Geoffrion could also be interesting.
Nashville does not spend enough to win a championship.
ReplyDeleteMoneyball guys omit that Billy Beane's A's are 1-5 in the playoffs.
His methods are useful for a team like Nashville to be competitive with a relatively small payroll, but on an absolute level, to win it all, you have to spend (on elite talent).
A strategy to continually build Davids to send against Goliaths is hardly sound.
That said, they are exceptional David-builders.
If they ever decide to splurge like Lowe did in 2005-06 then we're talking.
Hemsky to Nashville for...
ReplyDeleteBlum & Derkanich?
In his draft year, Blum was one of the guys who's name I noted.
From HF:
Blum's game consists of skill, skill, and more skill. He isn't the largest fellow in the world, so he relies on his skills and his wits to outmaneuver opposing forwards. Though he may not be the hardest hitting defender, Blum still isn't really lacking anywhere in his game.
Blum with Teddy P on the 3rd pair,
Loan Khabbi to Dinamo Minsk and eat the Cap hit.
Blum and Ellis would be interesting and would likely mean we would not be drafting Larsson as a consequence.
ReplyDeleteBut I can't see them trading a proven NHL for a couple who've not yet played.
Am sure they'd want to get out from JP Dumont's contract, but he won't waive his no-trade to go to Edmonton.
Question is what would 3.0 take for 2 high quality, but unproven prospects that would solve Nashville's issues? Gagner? Omark? And would anyone do those deals?
Or would Nashville send us Webber for Hemsky?
@ Spoiler - I agree with LMHF#1 the giveaway stat does not properly cover this area.
ReplyDeleteThe amount of missed or bad passes where the player has to go and retrieve the puck and any semblance of a rush or sustained pressure is lost is amazing.
This I think is also a large part of the failure of the power play as the team cannot connect a tic tac toe play plus add in the fact it takes the player receiving the pass an additional second or two to control the puck prior to shooting and success is greatly limited.
Lander's +/- is dropping, is he eyeing the master's in a couple of months?
ReplyDeleteDeano be careful, you broke a commandment here: "Thou shall not in any way denigrate Moneyball or point out such facts as a 1-5 playoff series record"
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I'm looking forward to the Moneyball movie.
Moneyball was okay for a bit but then the teams with the cash started doing some of the same things.
ReplyDeleteCash rules.
Re: Lander he's been centering the first line so the apparent explanation is some tougher comp. He's been getting assists regularly but the team is quite bad.
ReplyDeleteI suspect the notion is that the Oilers don't want any 'extra' Souray drama and as such don't want to go through the recall process unless there is a team that will claim him. So perhaps the message is out there - if you want Souray at half price, call us and we will put him on waivers.
ReplyDeleteMaybe?
I think the best thing Moneyball did was wrestle some of the control away from the old boys club, and teach new methods for scouting and even coaching.
ReplyDeleteIf it would help us rid the world of Don Cherry, then it would be a true success.
I'd trade them Vandermeer for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd. Or does that just work on nutbag Flames GMs?
ReplyDeleteVandermeer should actually have higher value than Staios did last year, since he fulfills the same function (insurance/depth) and his absurd overpay expires at the end of this year.
I'm not saying it will play out like that. But if I had to choose Vandermeer with two months left on his contract or Staios with fourteen, given their respective salaries, it would be no contest.
I agree Vandy should be worth more, but he probably won't. Makes you realize just how amazing that trade was.
ReplyDeleteSteve Smith
ReplyDeleteGood point!! I meant to ask: where and when did Daryl Sutter get signed as a GM so we can perform that robbery twice
i would target Sulzer and Wilson in any deal aside from the obvious Weber and Suter.
ReplyDeleteI'd trade them Vandermeer for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd. Or does that just work on nutbag Flames GMs?
ReplyDeleteThere should really be a moratorium on Oiler fans criticizing other GMs. Ok, I suppose Milbury and MacLean are fair game, but five straight years out of the playoffs including last year's capped out 30th place club has set the bar for post-CBA managerial incompetence. They might post a worse GD this year too.
Yeah, guys, that's why I said 'somewhat'. However, giveaways and takeaways remain our closest proxy.
ReplyDeleteI used to do stats for visiting TV at the Oiler games so I'm pretty aware of the counting issues and limitations.
Passing is something I do follow during the games at home though. My buds can attest to the fact that I used to cheer when the Oil completed 3 passes in a row. 4 was shooter territory, and 5 a magnum of champagne.
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ReplyDeleteIf you could be reasonably certain of being able to resign Weber long term, would he be worth Hemsky + this year's 1st round pick?
ReplyDelete@ Smarmy boss
ReplyDeleteFlames overpaid for Staios and I think we wont get more than a 3rd rounder for Vandermeer
If you could be reasonably certain of being able to resign Weber long term, would he be worth Hemsky + this year's 1st round pick?
ReplyDeleteYou'd need to beyond "reasonably certain". You'd also need to know the term and the dollars. But it's at least conceivable that it could be. Realistically, though, I can't see it being.
@ Oilerdago
ReplyDeleteI dont want Ellis. A package around Blum should be great, but not Ellis.
It would be great if we could get Blum and probably Franson or Klien
If Hemsky goes to Nashville, anything other than Franson coming back would be a distaster. Cody would be a monster for us
ReplyDelete@ spOILER - Such a basic skill and yet so hard for the Oilers to grasp. :)
ReplyDeleteWhen ever I think about how something so fundamental hasn't improved in numerous years and with numerous coaches I die a little more inside...
RiversQ
ReplyDeleteAgree with your comments reOther GM's but 11 no movement clauses. Seriously?
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ReplyDelete@ SumOil: Franson or Klein along w/Blum would help our blue-line significantly. Makes it possible to trade Smid at the deadline and try to fill other holes in the roster.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I'd hate to see Hemsky or Penner go because losing them opens up other holes on the roster. But at some point you have to ask who are the top 6/9 going to be when we start competing again (2012/13)? I still see next year as a part of the bigger re-build, although we need to start winning more games.
There should really be a moratorium on Oiler fans criticizing other GMs.
ReplyDeleteIf we defended the Oilers management I'd agree with you.
Since we let them have it hard, I think that makes them all fair game.
Poile makes some mistakes (lots of people compare the Legwand contract to Horcoff), but he doesn't make many.
Ol' No-neck should have a least 2 Jack Adams awards by now.
I heard Omark connected to a NAS rumour.
ReplyDeleteForgot where I heard it.
If Omark gets traded, that better mean 83 is just waiting until July 1 to sign an extension.
23 looks to be a good PP QB long term.
@ Oilerdago
ReplyDeleteI agree. I think that LT regulars pretty much dont want either to go and would want them to sign an extension.
However, if the trades were to happen, what would be the appropriate return.
My sense is "appropriate is prospect plus established young vet. Blum and Franson fit that.
ReplyDeleteIssue w/Nashville taking on Hemsky is can they afford him and the only way I think they can is if they feel that will result in a long playoff run.
Don't know if I'd hate seeing Hemsky go more than Omark. I saw that rumor too and hope it's not true.
Blum is a good solid prospect, but I have to think HF Prospects over-rates him at 8.0B.
ReplyDeleteOmark and Hemsky are similar in style so I can see one of them being traded.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we have seen the best of Omark yet as he is still adjusting, add to this the effect Omark is having on Paajarvi and his price point and perhaps Hemsky should go over Omark.
Yes Hemsky is a point a game player but I think Omark brings just as much value.
Spoiler: Well he's gotten better and better each year and now standing with the cream of defenders in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteSeems like he could bring in a P.K Subban type of contribution (Without the flash). A puck mover to play against the bleeders and maybe more as the season unfolds.
Flames overpaid for Staios and I think we wont get more than a 3rd rounder for Vandermeer
ReplyDeleteI know. I pretty much said that.
I loved Kevin Klein in A Fish Called Wanda.
ReplyDeleteAnd in that movie where he kisses Tom Selleck's moustache.
bookie - I don't think there's any drama to be had, its a paper transaction, so he won't be coming anywhere near Edmonton
Put him out there and see what happens. He's costing Katz a pile of money, not sure what the harm is in floating him out there. Didn't Rolston go through the same thing in NJ? Part of the business.
nashville already has a swedish skilled smurf in linus(!) klasen on their farm, don't think they need omark
ReplyDeleteFound this article on Hockeysfuture If you look back at the list of prospects in 07 compared to now it makes you realise how bad things really were.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/9517/oilers_top20_prospects/
Omark's value is that he is cheap and that he has promise but Hemsky is a proven veteran player who is, despite the shape of his peg, a pretty good one.
ReplyDeleteThe only way this team gets better is by getting and keeping good players.
Trading Hemsky in the hopes that Omark will step in and do what he can do is something Steve Tambellini and the Edmonton Oilers would do. We don't want out management being so boneheaded.
Right?
Oh shit.
Blackdog If rumours can be believed it would appear one of our actual NHL players may be dealt even though this club should be adding more actual players not trading the few we have.
ReplyDeleteOur lovely management have proven time and time that they are incapable of steering any ship and until the prove otherwise they should be viewed as the boneheaded idiots they are.
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ReplyDeleteWG - Omark has better pure skill and instincts running the PP than Hemsky does. Watching him with a defenceman who could shoot properly and a halfway decent scheme would be a thing of beauty. Something like:
ReplyDelete(ECH, my diagram didn't work! Basically I have a Dman I call "Bergeron" centered high in the zone, Omark plays around the top of the circle off to the far side, Hall is on the same side but lower, slightly higher than where he plays now and slides into the slot if Omark goes low, Penner plays either at goal line level to control the puck or goes to the front, Hemsky is the second defenceman but cheats in above Omark and below "Bergeron" level.
Would work well. Make Hemsky's job to either one-time the pass or one-touch to "Bergeron" or Hall. Penner either controls low or stands in front of the net waiting to do his best Dino Cicarelli impression on the rebounds. Hall does a version of what he does now, but higher and with the ability to slide into the slot when Omark takes the puck low.
Either that or just 3-man rush it at the net and trust Omark to pinball it from a lane he creates. He seems very good at that too. Probably the only one. MAB was excellent at sliding into a lane. Foster can't do it to save his life.
If Eberle's good enough you could also get the lineup to a point where Hemsky isn't really needed on the PP and can play a combined 20/night 5v5 and PK, which might be the best way for us to win.
Maybe it was the beer and maybe it was the clam (and maybe it was some combination of the two) clouding my judgment on Saturday, but I honestly like the Oilers' forwards moving forward. They look league average to me and there are a lot more up arrows than down if we're looking past this season. There are missing parts, sure, but not expensive ones.
ReplyDeleteOur D of course, sucks the hind banana (was this the Pat Quinn saying? I don't even know anymore), but Dubnyk seems at least capable of NHL average goaltending over the course of a season. I think that making the playoffs in 2011/12 is absolutely paramount and that to do so is as easy as adding a couple of half-decent defensemen and a Reasoner type. Oh, and important: matching lines aggressively.
Am I blue skying? Because I don't see any point to trading Hemsky or Penner for prospects or UFA's. Any defensemen coming Edmonton's way over the next year should have their Brewer/Poti/Greene/Blum years behind them.
Lowetide's post about 91-89-23 makes two points to me:
1) A little line matching would help this team a lot.
2) This team is thin enough, even at forward for the time being, that a lack of line matching is enough to help sink it.
woodguy, it was Matheson on team 1260 this morning who mentioned the Omark to NAS. He said Tambellini is getting a lot of calls about Omark.
ReplyDeleteWhats it say about Souray when not even the Rangers are interested.
ReplyDeleteI figure buy out this summer...
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/02/07/souray_scouts_rangers/
Like a lot of folks I hope Hemsky and Penner stick around... one of the good things I've heard through the media is that the Oiler's asking price for them both right now is high - and it better remain that way. No reason to move either of them by the trade deadline if it isn't a really good deal... I do hope they stock up on some draft picks for the likes of Vandermeer...
ReplyDeleteAm I blue skying?
ReplyDeleteI think you're slightly under-stating the difficulty: at least one of the defensemen we add would have to be better than "half decent" (though he doesn't have to be Weber-esque), and besides a competent checking centre I think we need at least one more bottom-six veteran winger. Goaltending insurance would be nice, too, but isn't essential and probably won't happen given that Khabibulin's here to stay. But I fundamentally agree with you that playoffs in 2011-2012 are feasible with a good, but not spectacular, off-season.
And yeah, "sucking the hind banana" was Quinn. But I think it meant more "coming up the rear" than "sucking shit", to the extent that those are distinct concepts.
Why would Souray accept a buy-out if it doesn't look like anyone else will sign him up?
ReplyDeleteMakes more sense for him to just concentrate on playing better in the minors next year, collect that big cheque in full and put up enough points that someone might give him another decent deal next summer.
Why would Souray accept a buy-out if it doesn't look like anyone else will sign him up?
ReplyDeleteBecause he has no choice: terms of buy-outs are governed by the CBA.
Why would Souray accept a buy-out if it doesn't look like anyone else will sign him up?
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, why would the Oilers add his cap hit (even a partial one)for the next 2(?) seasons when they can bury the hit in the minors again?
More importantly, why would the Oilers add his cap hit (even a partial one)for the next 2(?) seasons when they can bury the hit in the minors again?
ReplyDeleteThe only reasons for that would be
i. to save real dollars (which I'd rather they not do, but of course it's not my money), and/or
ii. they think Souray's continued presence, even while playing for an unaffiliated AHL team, is a distraction that the team would be better off without (which strikes me as dubious, but not the most dubious thing that Oiler management's ever done).
I do agree that a lot of people are missing the part where losing him on re-entry waivers would actually be worse for our cap situation than leaving him in the minors, though.
why would the Oilers add his cap hit
ReplyDelete1.5 million reasons.
I think a bought-out Souray costs $1.5MM (with $1.5MM cap hits also) in each of the next 2 seasons as opposed to $4.5MM for just next season (w/ the $5.4MM cap hit)
I think a bought-out Souray costs $1.5MM (with $1.5MM cap hits also) in each of the next 2 seasons as opposed to $4.5MM for just next season (w/ the $5.4MM cap hit)
ReplyDeleteExcept that if he's in the minors, it's a $0 cap hit vs. a $1.5M (X2) cap hit if we buy him out.
I think a bought-out Souray costs $1.5MM (with $1.5MM cap hits also) in each of the next 2 seasons as opposed to $4.5MM for just next season (w/ the $5.4MM cap hit)
ReplyDeleteThat is still 1.5 million in a season where (logically) they would be expected to compete - not next season, but the one after. Making it completely wasted money, since they apparently don't care at all if they waste it and it doesn't affect the cap (witness the millions spent this year in one-ways on the farm). My concern, if I were a manager paying attention to running a team, would be to avoid limiting myself at all by what I spent in a year where I could go for it with a proven bunch of young go-getters - PRV, Hall, Eberle, Petry, Dubnyk, Omark all as 3rd year vets, and a smattering of younger guys in their 2nd year. Add in a couple of well-priced vets to steady the ship and it could be a contender, at least for playoffs, if not for a conference round. That is where I would aim my effort, the 2013 season, and forget how I wasted money in 2012, since that will be another 'development' season anyways.
"I think you're slightly under-stating the difficulty... But I fundamentally agree with you that playoffs in 2011-2012 are feasible with a good, but not spectacular, off-season."
ReplyDeleteSteve, I think you're right. I made it sound like it's as easy as snapping your fingers to get the players needed but at least I also made it clear that you don't need any Malkins or Prongers to get the job done.
As for the cap discussion related to Souray, I'm not expecting Edmonton to flirt with the ceiling any time soon, even with additions. How expensive will 13, 5, and 49 really be?
SH: Yeah, fuck Renney if he's not gonna line match and fuck Any coach who's not gonna line match for that matter.
ReplyDeleteIn looking at the forwards, I like the crop too but we need a real centre no matter how you stack it.
I don't want to lose either of 27 or 83 - though they can force the issue by pricing themselves out of the payroll - but one of them's gonna have to go to address that pivot spot or the D.
In regard to that I'd like to see 4 get a shot at centre and if it works then we keep 27-89 and move 89 for a D.
In regard to that I'd like to see 4 get a shot at centre and if it works then we keep 27-89 and move 89 for a D.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone come out and said why that particular experiment was not tried more fully? Was it working too well? Too poorly? As I recall, it just stopped.
Perhaps we could get an answer if we knew any sports radio talk show hosts who could bring it up on their show? ;)
LMHF- Just clarify for me on your PP. Are you talking about an overload on the left side or right side?
ReplyDeleteSteve Smith:
ReplyDeleteWhere are you getting your information that a player has no choice about being bought out? It seems like you couldn't call them guaranteed contracts if that were the case, since the Oil would be denying Souray a third of the remaining money they contracted to pay him.
I haven't found anything saying definitively one way or the other, but that would be a massive fail by the PA if what you say if true.
Blum and Ellis would be interesting and would likely mean we would not be drafting Larsson as a consequence.
ReplyDeleteBoth have talent but both are small. I'd take one (Ellis) with an eye to having him run the PP in few years. Having both would mean the Oil are smurphy up front and on the blue.
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteBlum = 6''1
Larsson = 6''2
Not exactly a huge difference.
I think the 4 as pivot experiment died when Renney saw something else that was shiny.
ReplyDeleteDennis I think Renney has a case of ADD or something when it comes to his PP.
ReplyDeletefpb,
ReplyDeleteBlum is 6'1' but 178 lbs. All his scouting reports talk about him not being very big.
Larsson is well over 200 lbs.
The guy to target on NSH is Colin Wilson. HF says:
There isn't much left to say about Wilson, he can do most everything, and is a top-line center in the making. He has all the skill to perform at a high level, combined with good size and a fantastic work ethic. The only thing left for Wilson is to do it with the Predators, as he has done so far this season.
He has 27pts in 53 games and is 21. He is 6ft 1" and 219lbs. He isn't playing much C yet but can. He is 50% on the dot in 124 chances. Has a Rel Corsi of 1.1.
I think he might solve the #1 C question.
I haven't found anything saying definitively one way or the other, but that would be a massive fail by the PA if what you say if true.
ReplyDeleteIt's true.
Good day, Tyler.
ReplyDeleteMy memory may be playing tricks. Buyouts are a team option, but they are limited to a maximum of two in one year and three in two consecutive years, correct?
ID-
ReplyDeleteI think that you're thinking about when a team gets a salary arb award and then wants to buy someone out to create room. There are limits on how often you can do that.
Your ability to buy out guys otherwise is limited only by your capacity to sign asinine contracts and ownership's willingness to pay a guy to go away. So, in this case, sky's the limit.
According to Matty, Souray's too slow for Slats.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Rangers+take+pass+Souray/4239322/story.html
While I'm here...
ReplyDelete:-D
Dennis, I really think you're going to like the centre young 89 is becoming. He's got a good three to five years of getting stronger before he's got man strength/muscle maturity. He's been faster to start each year, and all he keeps doing is adapting.
He's floundering playing d-zone flanked by the chaos kids, and usually, assorted misfits and kids on D. But, he doesn't stop battling like they know what they're doing.
He's a keeper.
:-)
The Predators are my favorite organization in the league. They're like Detroit without the muscle or prestige - quality management from top down.
ReplyDeleteBack when the Oilers were pinching pennies, it was a source of never-ending frustration to compare the Oilers follies with the Predators' successes. The Preds have stumbled here and there, but their gambles (Forsberg) were understandable even if they failed to pan out.
You're right, I was confused.
ReplyDeleteThanx
ID: We meet every Thursday, don't remember where. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT, regarding the reports indicating that the Rangers weren't happy with what they saw with Souray, could this a ploy and a smokescreen to ensure that other teams will not be tempted to pick up Souray on re-entry? Haven't heard anyone else pose the question, just a gut feeling I guess.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have a working feed?
ReplyDeleteThat Matty article is unreal. Spector writes it with quotes from an unnamed Ranger scout. Four hours later, Matty has something up with no quotes in which he cites "sources."
ReplyDeleteEven if he was able to confirm what Spector wrote, seems to me Spector's owed a tip of the cap there.
Thanks a lot!
ReplyDeleteOther sports writers have been sAcked for doing as much in the past.
ReplyDeleteThe Hall experiment at centre is over for the moment in favour of the Cogliano pump-n-dump.
ReplyDeleteTambellini may have a gentleman's agreement with Hershey (not the Oilers farm team remember) to not jerk Souray on and off recall waivers unless someone is actually going to take him.
If he's put on recall, I don't think he can practice with Hershey the day he is on.
Got a source for that godot10? I'll bet you don't.
ReplyDeleteI really like Hemsky for Ellis. I would then draft Larsson too. Teams who passed on Ellis are going to be sorry. He has Niedermayer tree smarts and talent and will be an nhl star. Even if he only ends up playing 60-70 games a year I can think of somebody else like that.
ReplyDeleteWhitney-Ellis
Larsson-Gilbert
Peckham-Petry
Smid-Marancin
Now we're cooking.
Ha.
ReplyDeleteI would guess the Oilers are making it up as they go along when it comes to Souray, same as always.
The local McScoops don't seem to have much interest in asking the tough questions of management. Maybe Matheson can dress up like a butler and give us a report from inside Katz Manor next time Lowe and his flunky explain to him why he is paying Souray, JDD and Stortini to play in the minors.
I would love to see that dance step. I know Katz is rich but I can hardly believe he is both that rich and patient.
Wow, little Omark is tenacious.
ReplyDeleteWhere are you getting your information that a player has no choice about being bought out?
ReplyDeleteWell, it's the understanding that the Oilogosphere and MSM have been operating under since the new CBA came in. I admit that all I've really got is that appeal to authority, as I've not read the CBA myself, but I'm pretty confident.
hags9k - so you would trade an established NHL player, and quite a good one at that, for a smurf defenceman who has never even played a game in the minors?
ReplyDeleteIf they cannot sign Hemsky or Penner and decide to trade them they had better get as sure a thing as possible. Another return like they got for Smyth (remember that washed up fucker? he'd be leading this team in goals I believe) will set them back another year or two.
I'm in my forties now, I rather not be retired the next time this team actually plays a game that matters.
Ebs puttin it off the goalies far pad - such a good move!
ReplyDeleteWow, I thought that was a dead play there. Well timed and placed little chip in there, Eberle with a quick low shot, and Cogs with the cleanup. Didn't remotely imagine they'd score there.
ReplyDeleteAlso after Souray is recalled, Hershey may no longer be obligated to take him back if he fails to clear. Hershey is NOT the Oilers farm team.
ReplyDeleteWe don't know the precise details of the agreement between the Oilers and Hershey with regards to the obligations of either party after Souray is recalled.
Looking for a working feed as well.
ReplyDeleteYeah Jake, that's one of the things that stands out about Omark. He's surprisingly willing to engage in the O-zone, and he's surprisingly effective at it, maintaining possession till he sees a scoring chance.
ReplyDeletejustintv seems to be working
ReplyDeleteWorking feed here guys, not great but steady and it'll do.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.grabovskifan.tk/
ReplyDeleteNiedermayer tree smarts
ReplyDeleteSnicker. That sounds funny.
Work has Justin TV and that other link blocked but I got it on my iphone with justin tv so at least I can see it but on a 3.5 inch screen lol. Damn shift work.
ReplyDeleteBack when the Oilers were pinching pennies, it was a source of never-ending frustration to compare the Oilers follies with the Predators' successes.
ReplyDeleteAnd now it has reached a whole new level. The Oilers are much worse and more expensive.
ThW Rangers scouted Souray over the weekend and saw him bad.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/02/07/souray_scouts_rangers/
Also after Souray is recalled, Hershey may no longer be obligated to take him back if he fails to clear. Hershey is NOT the Oilers farm team.
ReplyDeleteWe don't know the precise details of the agreement between the Oilers and Hershey with regards to the obligations of either party after Souray is recalled.
Souray doesn't actually get recalled. He gets put on recall waivers. There's no "taking him back" involved.
You're right that we don't know the precise details of the arrangement. Notwithstnaidng this, you seem determined to imagine terms that excuses the Oilers.
MC79: Are you a lawyer? You seem more like a blinkered cop who has his suspect and refuses to consider all the possibilites.
ReplyDeleteOnce Souray is recalled, he goes on waivers. At that point he is no longer on Hershey's roster. i.e. he can't practice with Hershey.
How do you know if Hershey (which is NOT the Oiler's farm team) will take him back, if he doesn't get claimed off waivers?
Remember he hasn't exactly been playing very well or often, and he's costing Hershey $100K.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIt should be noted that Matty basically took all his info from a Spector piece over at Sportsnet as Spector has the market cornered on Souray news.
ReplyDeleteBTW, did you know Souray wears designer jeans? Mark Spector told me so in an article posted over there on Jan 27th; check it out for yourselves and have a laugh.
Louise: Someone's gonna have to move in order to address the D and I'm not down on 89 just for the fuck of it: I'm just looking at pieces that we have that could bring in something substantial.
BTW, I had the chances at 4-9 for the opening frame and DD played great but three of the Preds best chances were his own fault: two right off the hope when he made a terrible play behind his own net and another with 2:04 left in the opening frame as Ward had a great chance because of a terrible DD rebound.
Other notes:
- the 2/26 tandem were a collective 0/8 and as I said that pairing makes everyone look like Nostradamus.
- an excellent hard-working shift by the 89 trio but they still finished a collective 0/6.
- two other notes with one Preds chance coming after 13 lost an own zone draw to the right of DD and another after 83 made a very poorly thought out blind backhand pass to the right point.
- 10 doesn't look as strong as he used to; nowhere close actually.
'losing can't be satisfactory anymore.'
ReplyDeletethe new captain.
CrazyCoach - Yes, the right side if you count the Dman at the top (who would be shifted over ever so slightly. Might not seem to much different than our current arrangment to some, but there are some angles and planned options that need to be changed badly.
ReplyDeleteRemember Horcoff's knee won't be completely rehabbed till next fall.
ReplyDeleteI think that making the playoffs in 2011/12 is absolutely paramount and that to do so is as easy as adding a couple of half-decent defensemen and a Reasoner type.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with this. You're talking about three forwards, one of which needs to be a pretty good player and at least two quality dmen. Realistically, one of those dmen probably needs to be a top pairing dman. Adding five good veteran players in a single offseason is a little hard to do. Not impossible, but not likely either.
It also requires moving the right players out too. I just don't have the confidence in this mgmt.
MC79: Are you a lawyer? You seem more like a blinkered cop who has his suspect and refuses to consider all the possibilites.
ReplyDeleteOnce Souray is recalled, he goes on waivers. At that point he is no longer on Hershey's roster. i.e. he can't practice with Hershey.
I am a lawyer, although you don't need to be a lawyer to actually read the portion of the CBA that you're discussing:
To the extent the Player does require Waivers to be Loaned to a
minor league affiliate, he cannot be Loaned or recalled without
first clearing regular Waivers, and then cannot be Recalled to the
NHL parent Club during the same League Year without also
clearing a new Re-Entry Waiver procedure, pursuant to which the
Player can be claimed by another NHL Club for fifty (50) percent
of the contract's remaining amounts to be paid,
You've got the order of things wrong. You seem to think that it's "recall" and then "waivers." That's not how it works. The player has to be placed on waivers. If he clears, you can then recall him. If he doesn't, someone else gets him.
I've seen nothing to suggest that you can't have the player on waivers every day if you want.
Can they buyout Foster NOW?
ReplyDeleteWTF is he doing there? There's no reason to take that hooking penalty.
In addition: you don't have to recall a player just because he clears re-entry waivers. The Stars put Sean Avery on re-entry waivers in 2009 and made it clear that they had no plans to recall him if he cleared.
ReplyDeleteI doubt that the Oilers would be stupid enough to do some deal with the Bears whereby the Bears no longer have to keep him if they put him on re-entry waivers. If they've tied their hands that way, they're stupider than I thought, considering that the Bears have $100K of skin in the game or so and the Oilers have $8.9MM.
Further edit: I would suspect that the Bears basically agreed to pay $100K of the freight on Souray, or whatever they're paying him, for this year. I would assume it's a standard type contract - otherwise the Oilers assume all the risk that Souray gets hurt while the Bears just reap the benefit for an outrageously low price. Again, I don't think that these imagined possibilities make things look any better.
ReplyDeleteIn fairness to the Oilers, this is probably largely academic - I'm sure that they can easily enough ascertain, at any given time, whether anybody would claim Souray on re-entry waivers. If the answer is no, which they apparently believe that it is, then putting him on re-entry waivers is kind of pointless even if it's not actually harmful.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that they can easily enough ascertain, at any given time, whether anybody would claim Souray on re-entry waivers.
ReplyDeleteYou think so? I laid out what I think is a pretty sensible and reasonable case for why you wouldn't tell them. Say you like Souray as a fallback option if you can't get something else done. As long as you don't tell the Oilers you're interested, you're not put to the test.
Hershey is NOT the Oilers farm team. Yanking Souray on and off waivers impacts Hershey. The impact on Hershey and how they might react to being jerked around by the Oilers are considerations that you seem to want to ignore because it doesn't fit with your a priori thesis that in all cases Steve Tambellini MUST be a complete and utter moron.
ReplyDeleteAs a lawyer, aren't you trained to consider all possibilities? All possible explanations of a set of facts?
In fairness to the Oilers, this is probably largely academic...
ReplyDeleteIt's not really about re-call waivers at all. It's more about the Oilers perpetual disinformation campaign and how the MSM is either intentionally complicit or too stupid to keep up.
What is the simplest most obvious explanation to why Souray is not being put on waivers and off waivers continuously?
ReplyDeleteThe most obvious possible explanation is that Hershey doesn't want to have to deal with that. They don't want a Souray circus.
Yanking Souray on and off waivers impacts Hershey.
ReplyDeleteLet me know when you get around to explaining how this is the case. So far the explanations for which you've offered no evidence include a) that he can't practice and b) that he'll have to come back to Edmonton.
The only way in which Souray being on waivers affects Hershey is if he's claimed. If the Oilers are prevented from doing that, then they've made an incredibly dumb deal.
The most obvious possible explanation is that Hershey doesn't want to have to deal with that. They don't want a Souray circus.
ReplyDeleteNo idea how that makes it a circus. The GM has said he'll put Souray on recall waivers when someone promises to take him. In effect, any day someone could phone Tambo and do this. Not sure how what is literally a clerical difference turns it into a circus.
Finally. Eberle with some initiative at least
ReplyDeleteI don't believe they killed the game feed on JustinTV. What a jip. Also that was pretty much what I expected from a 30th place PP going up against a top 3 PK, till the kids decided to force the issue =).
ReplyDeleteany feed updates
ReplyDeleteRiversQ: I'll grant I made acquiring good players sound easier than it is. Are you set in the idea that Edmonton needs 3F + 2D to make the leap?
ReplyDeleteThe 2D in my mind are obvious - you need someone to add to Whitney and Gilbert to make a legitimate top 4. Peckham and Petry look just fine but the further up the depth chart they go at this stage the worse a team's playoff chances get.
The 3F, I'm not so sure. Operating under the assumption that none of the kids are riding percentages right now, is the following a reasonable lineup up front?
27-10-83
4-89-14
23-Stoll-91
Jones/Reddox/Lander/whoever?
I think it's a bit much to assume full health but I'm not sure you have to add 3F. You have a PVP line and two soft minutes ones (I'm guessing one gets outscored and the other outscores) and one more player, arbitrarily Stoll, who can win faceoffs and PK.
Anyway, I'm more than willing to grant that laying names out and guessing doesn't exactly have predictive power.
If you swap games played totals between Khabby and Dubnyk while keeping percentages the same, Edmonton shaves 10 goals against. Was the # MC79 found roughly 1 win per each 2 goal change in differential? I can't remember and will start with the googling.
Anyway, let me know what you think.
Dennis
ReplyDeleteAt 21 he can already hang with the big boys given a modicum of help. Move someone else.
;-D
1 win for every 6 GD.
ReplyDeleteReplacing Khabby would be a start. Maybe Hershey wants a goalie.
mc79: Really, just 1 for every 6? Those 10 goals seem like fuck all now. But thank you for posting that.
ReplyDeleteRyan Jones adds another $200K to his next contract.
ReplyDeleteRyan Jones adds another $200K to his next contract.
ReplyDeleteAnd more importantly, Colin Fraser gets his fourth point of the year, bringing his total to one every thirteen games.
Showerhead: I don't think putting 55% in the circle between 23 and 91 turns that into a decent line. The faceoff thing is just ridiculously overblown at this point. Also as long as Renney coaches this team it's highly likely that the fourth line will be dog food again.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see them make a run next year because they'll have a lot of value contracts, but Marty Reasoner doesn't take you from 15 points out of 14th in the WC all the way to 8th place. It takes serious work to get there and I doubt Tambo can put it together.
Watched the intermission interview with Horcoff.... Is it just me or did he have a nose job while he was out on the IR?
ReplyDeleteI know alot of guys like Omark (as do I) but I really don't think he will be the guy that Hemsky is. He seems to show all kinds of flash around the net, but the results seem mixed. And if there are teams willing to overpay with D or D prospects for him, then that is a deal you have to make.
ReplyDeleteOh, and the CBA sucks.
Did 23 get hurt or something? Because after the Oilers looked like they might have a competent PP all of a sudden 5 shows up on the unit;)
ReplyDeleteSeriously, the Oilers had four chances on that PP and all four of them were great and Rinne made two huge saves, the Oilers hit a post and a D covered 77's shot from the crease on a play where I can't believe the puck didn't didn't go in.
Crazy night for posts, BTW. 4 and 13 have found iron and the Oilers have a new outstanding PKer and it's called the iron behind DD: the Preds have two PP posts and another at EV.
I had chances at 11-6 that period and a pretty good frame by the Oilers. The 4th line chipped in with a goal and they didn't have much TOI - though Renney continued his fuckery of letting the 4th line stay on for the next shift after they score - but that's still probably the best 4th line we've iced all year.
Some nice plays by 14 and a really good frame from 58 outside of the DOG penalty.
RiversQ: Yeah, I'm willing to accept that. Re-reading my post, I do see some blue sky there - for example, I seem to have erased Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteI also just did a quick glance at the standings with respect to goal differential which was kind of scary to look at. The worst +/- on a playoff bound team is -5 in Carolina while Chicago (at +20, how in the world?) is the only team on the outside looking in with a positive GD. As a result, for argument's sake, Edmonton's got to approach even to get to the playoffs.
At -49 so far (granting them their two goals tonight) the idea of Edmonton going from this to even seems pretty farfetched.
I wonder what Katz would have to throw in to to get Nashville to swap Poile and Trotz for V.03 and Renney? A 2nd rounder and some undisclosed money. Pull the trigger!
ReplyDeletepboy: we'll even throw in a team bus on that deal.
ReplyDeleteHey Rivers,
ReplyDeleteI think Edmonton's roster seems worse than it is.
Here's some interesting facts from behind the net.
Edmonton has the second best GF/60 at ES in the whole league.
Of course, they're down at 22nd in SF/60 at ES, so a lot of that is luck. But, on the other hand, it seems to me that the shots and chances have gotten better the last 20 games, perhaps reflecting the kids settling in. My bet is Edmonton would be very middle of the pack at ES on shots for over the last 20, maybe even above average. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)
The shots against are the killer at 2.9/60 at ES. We're second last in the league, just better than the Isles.
By my eye, a lot of those shots against are generated by the D who can't play for shit. If you improve the D, that solves a lot. Maybe my eyes are wrong. Maybe somebody can show me that the forwards are not holding their own defensively. But I'm not so sure.
Strudwick, Vandermeer, Peckham, and Petry are just horrible as a unit right now. (They're all AHL'ers on some nights.) No team could deal with that D.
Yeah 23 on the point looked really good. Part of that is Omark, part of it is the fact that the alternatives are pretty awful.
ReplyDeleteShowerhead: I guess it depends a lot on goaltending and assuming that Renney is sandbagging really hard.
Oh, and culture. Don't forget culture.
Penner with a sweet one. Good skating from him tonight.
Game is unfindable. Any luck?
ReplyDeleteKris: I don't disagree with much of that. I do think the forwards suck in their own end (pretty much all of them except Horpensky) but the dmen are definitely really bad too. Realistically you need both to be down around -50, don't you? ;)
ReplyDeleteRQ,
ReplyDeleteI think you underestimate how much a 2D to play with a healthy Whitney can impact this team.
I put this at the end of the LA thread.
Let's look at tonight's TOI for Oiler D.
77 26:29
49 23:32
5 19:38
2 17:10
58 15:16
43 12:06
Add 6 and a top pairing RH partner and:
6 27:00
X 27:00
77 19:00
49 19:00
5 14:00
58 14:00
Think about a team that doesn't put 2,26, or 43 on the ice, ever.
A team where all 3 pairs have a clue and a puck mover.
1 significant player on the D (and a healthy Whitney) makes this team better ever single minute of a game compared to today.
Whitney and X take on toughs instead of 77 and 49
77 and 49 take on 2nds instead of 5, 58
5 and 58 take on 3rds instead of flotsam and jetsam.
That makes a massive difference to every forward line playing in front of them, and the top 9 forwards have some interesting things going on, especially if they keep this group together.
Marty Sakic, Reddox, Harikainen/X rounding out the forwards with your PK1 unit of forwards and this team is better than what we are watching today by a lot more than 10ish points. That team can make the playoffs.
Especially if DD turns into a minimum an average NHL goalie.
Gilbert out according to Oilers, will be assessed after game.
ReplyDeleteWhen in the fuck did cross-checking become a non-infraction? I would like to see Linus get up after being cross-checked 2 or 3 times in a row and two-hand the prick in the nuts! If cross-checking is now legal, Renney should be coaching our boys to use this tactic? I am liking what I am seeing from Wreckham tonight however.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Gilbert? I don't remember seeing anything
ReplyDeleteThat makes a massive difference to every forward line playing in front of them, and the top 9 forwards have some interesting things going on, especially if they keep this group together
ReplyDeleteUpgrading 13 to something like Stoll would help a lot as well.
Looks like 77 could have easily torn or stretched an ACL or MCL there.
ReplyDeleteNo bad D, a moderate run of injuries, and Khabi are more than enough to get to -50.
ReplyDeleteThe underlying numbers show that Eberle and Hall are the Rel Corsi killers for the Oilers this year. Qual Comp. is a mess but according to qual comp. they're playing tougher comp. than Horcoff, Penner, or Hemsky.
The underlying numbers say Hall and Eberle are better than Horpensky. IMO. Maybe that's too controversial.
At any rate, We need to recognize that Hall and Eberle can play as of now and are on cheap deals. Not running them and Horpensky as a pretty cheap top 6 is a massive waste of what could be the core of a very good team.
WG: We're talking about roughly one full GPG difference to make the Oilers a playoff team. Sure, you could get two players capable of fixing that, but good enough that they don't grow on trees.
ReplyDeleteGilbert: Don't know if anyone caught it but I think earlier in 2nd period (late first?) he took a hard hit in the corner to left of Dubnyk as he was turning. Looked a little awkward to me. He seemed to pause for a second or two afterward. This may have been the culprit.
ReplyDeleteKris: going into tonight's game, the Oilers were on pace for almost -80. 80 goals is a huge number.
ReplyDeleteNot running them and Horpensky as a pretty cheap top 6 is a massive waste of what could be the core of a very good team.
100% agree. It's a great window. Arguably the best one they'll get barring a crazy haul at this draft. I just think it will be hard to take advantage of it. Basically I'm betting that Tambo isn't capable. Too much action required.
All the above I wrote is assuming they get a real special teams coach.
ReplyDeleteGilbert's been playing with a bad knee for a while I read somewhere, maybe he just tweaked it a bit. Hopefully anyhow. If he's out then the Sens aren't catching them.
ReplyDeletekris - your point is good, I'm not sure if Hall and Eberle are better than Horpensky (I'd say no) but I think its fair to say they are top sixers.
Add a centre and you have two lines who can play the toughs or some semblance thereof.
Let the Swedes and Gagner play the softies.
Need to add two guys to play on the fourth line with 85 (if you believe in 85 - I do) - they have to be able to PK and the centre should be able to win draws.
Need to add a top pairing Dman at least.
Need to add a goalie to play with Dubnyk. An established guy too.
I don't think Cogs gets you that centre, that Dman and that goalie. ;) Unless you want to deal prospects and picks and I don't think that's a good idea.
Still the foundation is there. But can Tambo add to it? I have my doubts.
I agree that Rivers is right that Tambo will fail at doing this. Or rather, he won't try because he is "building patiently." Just like he assessed "patiently." So I'm not optimistic.
ReplyDeleteI think we slightly disagree about how hard it is, but we're not that far off. Fun discussion.
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3576
ReplyDeleteIf Gilbert is out for any extended period of time does that open the door to call up Plante? Also, if Jimmy V gets moved at the deadline we may see another rookie in the line-up.
ReplyDeleteSounds like it's more about the knee to head then his knee that's bothering Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteKris: going into tonight's game, the Oilers were on pace for almost -80. 80 goals is a huge number.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but Strudwick is responsible for like 90 against on his own, even in limited time. :)
Is that Dubnyk's first career SO?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe underlying numbers say Hall and Eberle are better than Horpensky. IMO. Maybe that's too controversial.
ReplyDeleteAt any rate, We need to recognize that Hall and Eberle can play as of now and are on cheap deals. Not running them and Horpensky as a pretty cheap top 6 is a massive waste of what could be the core of a very good team.
But everyone in world outside of this blog and C&B say wasting ELC years isn't important!
Great point.
RQ,
According to BTN the Oilers are:
5v5 -25 goals
5v4 +20 goals
5v3 Even (egad!)
4v5 -42 (bloody hell)
4v4 +3
4v3 +1
3v5 Even (what the hell?)
3v4 -2
3v3 Even
That is -45 with almost half of that being special teams differential.
A good specials team coach and a Stoll/Reasoner type to head up PK1 can go a looooong way.
So will all 7 (7!!) rookies being 1 year older and 80-40 games smarter.
8:36 PM, February 07, 2011
Delete
A good specials team coach and a Stoll/Reasoner type to head up PK1 can go a looooong way.
ReplyDeleteI think a Curtis Hamilton could also go a long way in helping here. I wouldn't count him out of the race for a 4-line job straight outta compton (er.... Saskatoon) next season.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm just glad that we're even 3v3.
ReplyDeleteThe Thrashers have money problems on their D.
ReplyDelete1) 3 more years of Hainsey @ $4.5 million per.
2) 3 more years of Enstrom @ $3.75 million per.
3) 2 more years of Oduya @ $3 million per.
4) Byfuglien is a RFA
5) Bogosian is a RFA.
Is Bogosian the guy the Thrashers are dangling for Hemsky? Say Bogosian and Bergfors/Peverley/Slater?
Should one like any of 1-3?
Gilbert took a very bad knee to the head that shifted his head to the left and compressed his neck; I think is his problem.
ReplyDeleteRight now 14 has 10 goals, 27 points and is a -1 in the first 40 games of his career.
ReplyDeleteand we know what kind of team he's playing and what kind of comp he's facing.
RQ is right.
ReplyDeleteThis team could absolutely be a playoff team next year, but Tambo isn't a good enough GM to get it done.
Going to be frustrating when he pushes the window back another few years when he deals Hemsky for a pick and a prospect.
WG is right that a lot of the needed improvement could come from the ST so let's consider that for a second.
ReplyDeleteWhich forwards and D have the worst GAON/60? So who seems to be the biggest problem personnel-wise? It probably stands to reason that we have to bring in Two bonafide Pkers. So let's say Reasoner plus.
Plus, we have to get new coaching and will the brass do that?
On to the PP and I think we can all agree that no one's gonna be brought in to help so improvement Must come from within. So, once again, we'll need new coaching staff.
On the one hand we're going in the right direction because both 4-14 are Real players right off the damn bat and 91 looks good, too. W
And would you bet he wouldn't look damn good playing with say 10-83 if 27's the one moved?
On the other hand we have to do something with that D because there's no way you can have as much youth back there as we do.
I agree with the window theory but I also agree that I don't trust Lowe and Co to do what's needed to get us back to competing. Plus, it will be very comfortable for them to wait back and snooze for another year because they know they won't really be judged until they announce that they're moving into Phase Two.
Godot,
ReplyDeleteThrash are dangling Hainsey for offers according to the MSM, which makes sense given the group.
I can't believe Columbus wouldn't take a chance on Souray at half price. Are we convinced that Tamby isn't still hoping for a trade this summer? An asset, as he puts it.
ReplyDelete4 was moved off C when 10 returned, no? Hall needs to spend some more time there. Either with Penner or Hemsky or both.
...This is one of the best games I've seen the Flames play this season.
I hope Oilers keep Penner and Hemsky, but if either wants out it's down to the management committee of Klowe, Tambo, Quinn lol, and whoever else makes up this stellar franchise to get a good bargain for either/both of these players, neither of who are really worth worrying about.
ReplyDeleteThis team's about Hall/Eberle, and the upcoming first draft pick.
Vandemeer played good tonight.
PS: Congrats to the boys for the shutout - plenty more where that came from next season. Nice to see them win huge, and remain in the 30th spot.
ReplyDeleteYou can do it!
Now. Go and start another losing streak.
>> neither of who are really worth worrying about.
ReplyDeletehunter, quit posting so much.
@Bloggy stfu.
ReplyDeleteTencer talking about Montreal high on Penner. They don't have much in the way of good prospects.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Parcioretty and Leblanc?
That's the type of deal you have to seek if you're giving up Penner.
I still assert you extend Hemsky, and trade Penner (I have strong doubts he'll sign another contract here). Penner's value is high at the moment, and unlike Moreau, having another year left on his contract would be viewed as a bonus.
Tencer also mentioned Spezza. He's exactly the first line C we need. Honestly I would consider Penner + Gagner for Spezza + 2nd.
Pacioretty? We could get Pacioretty?!?
ReplyDeleteWhatever we need to give them, give them.
Pacioretty, wow.
;-)
Bar Qu: I saw what you did there.
ReplyDeleteHonestly I think it's a good deal for Edmonton.
He's a good kid. He battles hard and win a lot of battles, and has skill with it.
Spezza would be terrible. May as well just forget about a rebuild and suck forever.
ReplyDeleteSpezza has been unfairly made a scapegoat in Ottawa - much like Hemsky is in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteSpezza has consistently put up solid underlying and counting numbers. He'd be a perfect fit for Hall over the next 5 years.
Montreal is a bad trade partner.
ReplyDelete--
Just an idea.
With Savard on LTIR, cap space isn't a problem:
To Boston:
Hemsky
Penner
To Edmonton:
Ryder
+ ?
How big does that question mark have to be to make up for how far back that pushes the Oilers window?
TO 1st, Boston 1st, Boston 2nd, Tyler Seguin, Joe Colborne...
Is there a trade to be had there? Boston would instantly become the favorites to come out of the East.
I'd rather keep both of them, but if we're trading Hemsky, Penner, or both it's important to make sure the assets coming back are A+.
We can't Smyth/Pronger this.
I really like Hemsky for Ellis.
ReplyDeleteEllis IS Danny Syvret!
Spezza has been unfairly made a scapegoat in Ottawa - much like Hemsky is in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteHe is pretty much like Hemsky - without the value contract.
$7 million per for four yrs after this. Pretty consistently injured. Takes games off. Doesn't play tough.
Fortunately he has a NTC. He won't be waiving it to come here.
The trade rumour I had heard was Ellis and a first for 83. Hemmer for Ellis straight across is a risk I would still take. I admit I don't like Hemsky's game and never have. Ellis = Syvret 2? Time will tell but I think it's Rafalski 2.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the Oilers continue to hold out for the moon in exchange for their top guys, they are following the right path. Someone is going to overpay and overpay big time this off season. Things are way too close with way too many teams for someone not to get desperate.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you caught that fpb. But I still think there would need to be more for Hemsky in that type of swap, and I don't know what the Habs have that the Oilers need, that the Habs don't need just as much.
Time will tell but I think it's Rafalski 2.
ReplyDeleteRafalski didn't play a minute in the NHL until he was 27. So, maybe not such a good idea to give up Hemmer for Ellis if BF is his comparable.
Tuesday morning standings.
ReplyDeleteBottom 5 NHL via pts%
TOR .462
NJD .396
NYI .394
OTT .389
EDM .377
Saturday's game vs. OTT will be key in the Toilet Bowl standings.
Western Conference via pts%
VAN .731
DET .660
DAL .613
SJS .585
NSH .583
ANA .574
PHX .573
MIN .567
-------------
LAK .566
CGY .555
CHI .547
CBJ .529
STL .529
COL .528
EDM .377
Fun stat of the day:
Via pts% the 23-29th place teams in the league are all from the Eastern Conference.
COL is 22nd, EDM is 30th
re: Souray
ReplyDeleteis it possible that they sent scouts to check on him and say he is not fast enuff for them to only scare off all other teams when edmonton puts him on re entry?
wouldnt that make sense to scout him and say naggh we dont like him, scare off other GMs and when its time to put a claim in, just do so!!!
wouldnt that work to avoid the whole PLUCKING him from another interested team disater?
Anon
ReplyDeleteThat wouldn't work. As soon as the Oil place Souray on re-entry, every team out there is going to know it is by some team's request. Nor will anyone trust one team to do due diligence for the entire league. Plenty of pro scouts have seen Souray play this year; he's not in Siberia.
I can't believe Howson isn't interested though. Souray must really suck.
More fun with numbers.
ReplyDeleteSV% Overall
Khabby .891
Dubnyk .917
SV% 5v5
Khabby .907
Dubnyk .924
SC% 4v5
Khabby .810
Dubnyk .881
I was blue skying next year if v3.0 manages to get a top pairing Dman earlier in the thread.
RQ was trying to bring me back to earth by showing my the horrendous goal differential the Oilers have.
Khabby has faced 830 5v5 shots (77 goals) and 179 4v5 shots 34 goals).
DD has faced 471 5v5 shots (36 goals) and 126 4v5 shots (15 goals)
Total goals against 5v5 and 4v5 = 162
If we swap their shots and apply their SV% to them:
Khabby 5v5 goals 44, 4v5 24 goals
Dubnyk 5v5 goals 63, 4v5 21 goals
Total goals 5v5 and 4v5= 152
Already 10 goals better.
Add to that the upgrade in D (assuming healthy Whitney and 1D), where you have:
6-X playing 1sts
49-77 playing 2nds
5-58 playing 3rds
With no 26,2, and 43 to be seen, and this team might have a current goal differential near zero.
Piles of assumptions but its fun to speculate about it.
Could the Oilers overpay a Bieksa, Phillips, or Gill on a 2 year contract to convince them to come here?
I think you need to do a Khabby and outbid everyone for a guy, but only on a two year so there is no cap problems when the 3 amigos come due for their 2nd contracts.
I don't get the MSM sometimes.
ReplyDeleteListening to Gregor's show yesterday, and Gregor, Rishaug, and Spector were all crapping all over Gilbert. They specifically called out his leadership (or supposed lack thereof) and lack of emotion.
This was a stark contrast to Ralph Krueger's comments on Gregor's show a few weeks ago, where he went to great length to praise Gilbert's team play and leadership (on and off the ice). I seem to recall Renney saying much the same previously as well.
I asked Gregor what his take was (i.e. why do the coaching staff praise his leadership if he's not a leader) and his response was that they must be saying it publicly to try and trick other teams into believe it.
Huh?
Lots of talk about Bogosian, and Principe says two atlanta scouts drove up to the game in Nash. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI asked Gregor what his take was (i.e. why do the coaching staff praise his leadership if he's not a leader) and his response was that they must be saying it publicly to try and trick other teams into believe it.
ReplyDeleteIf facts don't jibe with Gregor's world view he just shouts you down.
YOU ARE WRONG!!
The Thrashers put Bogosian in the NHL at 18 and have burned up his whole ELC.
ReplyDeleteI've been told this is a terrible thing for some reason.
From where I sit, however, he's a 21 year old lottery pick with 2 1/2 years of NHL experience who we can re-sign to a cheapish deal that still leaves him RFA after it expires.
Sounds like something to jump on if he's available.
Bar Qu: Well they got the man which we can't name who's doing pretty good so far in the NHL with 14 points in 24.
ReplyDeleteThey got Jared Tinordi to spare. I guess he could be interesting for the Oil. His low numbers shot him in the bawlz tough.
Up front they got Danny Kristo et Louis Leblanc. Albeit small Brendan Gallagher could interest teams too. Since Markov is on IR they have 4M$ of cap space so it's not an issue.
My guess is the only possible trade is this
U know who + Yannick Weber (21 years old D doing dandy) + 1st round pick.
Bogosian is exactly what you want back if you are moving 83.
ReplyDeleteI do it.
Ellis hasn't played a day of pro, is slow and small. You don't trade Hemsky for magic beans.
Bogosian isn't ripping the cover off of it, but show me a Dman who did being pushed into the show at 18 (besides Doughty)
He's 6'3" 215lb RH shot and plays all situations.
Yes please.