It isn't certain #83 will be sent away, but there's enough out there for some of us to believe this could be the last time we see Hemsky in an Oiler uniform. If it is, he'll be missed just on entertainment value. Ales Hemsky is a fun hockey player and a game rooster.
--
Mark Spector has the best article up on the Hemsky-Schenn dealing and he says in the article "this appears to be one of those deals where strict guidelines have been set, and now the two GMs will sit back and see who blinks first."
We'll know if and when the LAK make a deal. If David Booth heads to the Kings then the Oilers aren't dealing Hemsky to the left coast. Washington got their help (probably) when picking up Sturm.
--
Dustin Penner would appear to be a better trade deadline bargain than Hemsky at this time but interest levels appear to be waning based on the internet. Minnesota and Montreal have been rumored but it looks like it'll go to Monday for #27 too (or the summer).
--
Terry Jones has a solid article up on Steve Tambellini and the importance of the deadline.
--
Rob Schremp is on waivers again. He posted some offense and gave up some going the other way, but as near as I can tell this is about Michael Grabner running his show after coming over on waivers. I'd guess someone takes a chance on him, scoring goals is a tough thing to do.
Going to the game with PDO. Gotta be there if it's 83's last game as an Oiler. Would miss 27 too.
ReplyDeleteA couple interesting things in Jones' article:
"But on Tambellini cleaning up Kevin Lowe’s mess since the Oilers decided to blow everything up"
Is that the first time an Edmonton MSM writer actually placed the blame for the Oiler's destruction since 2006 on Lowe?
Usually the narrative puts the blame on players. Pronger, Souray, Moreau (aka "under performing vets")
He also writes:
" The average Edmonton hockey fan can debate the pros and cons of Penner and Hemsky on close to the same level as your average pro hockey scout. But what makes this such a fascinating study from the outside looking in is that there are no guarantees with most of the young prospects and/or draft choices who would be coming the other way."
Jones' has been a much better read since he got on twitter. It looks like he's been reading a lot of blogs and he's writing much more like a Oilogosphere blogger than he used to.
BOS played late and beat a good VAN team. They are probably tired and will only bring their "C" game and play Rask.
Therefore the final score will be 5-2 for BOS.
Go Oilers!!
*clap,clap*
I think there's about a 20% chance that this is Hemsky's last game.
ReplyDeleteIf the gap in the valuation of Penner is as wide as we perceive, there's less than 5% chance he moves. He's easily worth more to this team than what we hear is being offered.
You know what surprised me, Boston is second in the east for GF. I am sure some of it would be percentages, but still did not expect it to be so!
ReplyDeleteAs it's been said, my hope is that the deadline is about picking up 1 or 2 role players without the expense of Hemsky. I'd be open to losing Penner for a roster player and a pick or two.
ReplyDeleteLofty hopes?
It could get ugly at the game tonight. Bless the brave souls that venture out for the game. Every time I try to name all of the nice players on the Bruins I end up running out of fingers to count on. Plus, 2 studs in net. I could be their year.
In other news, my vote is for Black Swan with the Best Picture upset.
Boston is my second favortie team after Oilers!! Its going to be a fun night
ReplyDeleteSumoil: Same here. Bruins were my team before the Oilers came along so this will be fun.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: FWIW I worked with Terry Jones a little bit about 15 years ago and he's a very engaging, funny guy. Wonderful sense of humor and he can take it as well as he dishes it out (and that isn't always the case).
He didn't eat you?
ReplyDeleteLet's assume ST had the sit down with 83 already, (if he hasn't then show him the door now), if 83 hinted at all he would resign, wouldn't ST make it known he is NOT available? He is in fact available, correct?
ReplyDeleteAlso, so if ST is asking for "the moon", in a way inflating 83's value, then how does his agent use that inflation when negotiating after July 1st if those talks do in fact take place?
What concerns me is the whole circus that might play out if Hemsky is not traded, talks to resign drag out or stop once the season starts (see Josee Bautista with BlueJays). The potential PR fallout for the organization.
If a Hemsky or Penner deal is going to come down to the wire, would you risk them getting injured and sit them out this one? As much as I do not want to see ether of them gone and would like them here for the long term, if there is a chance for a good deal for the Oilers I would be hesitant to play them, especially 83.
ReplyDeleteWhen I used to do some stats at the Oiler games I always made sure I got there for the press box free meal.
ReplyDeleteWatching Terry Jones eat made one fear for the buffet table.
But, to be fair, I also served him a fair bunch at Mo's way back when it was a popular sports bar, and he was always a gent. As LT says, quick with a joke.
I had a bit of an arguement with a guy at work about the trade values of Hemsky Vs Richards right now. So I looked up some stats for the two guys since the lockout.
ReplyDeleteHemsky Age 27 turns 28 in Aug
signed till 2012 4.1mil/season
358 gp 330 pts .922 points per game
Currently Healthy
Richards Age 30 turns 31 in may
UFA in 2011 7.8 mil/season
430 gp 425 pts .988 points per game
Currently concussed
What do you guys think? Who is worth more at this trade deadline?
Jake - With a year left on his contract, what player is going to tell his boss that he is not going to re-sign?
ReplyDeleteThis discussion that everyone hopes has happened is worthless. It contains no reliable information.
From the Kings side, if Hemmer fits, what are the chances he does not re-sign there next season? They are trading for 100 games plus first crack at signing Hemmer.
@ Jake70
ReplyDeleteI would not be worried about Hemsky's agent. Most agents know that GM's have to put the team first and that trades are part of the business. I don't think this would give his agent anymore or less leverage than what a player's performance does to bargaining power.
If the situation is as Spector and Matheson have laid out, I think we have to come to terms with the fact that Hemsky is gone.
ReplyDeleteLombardi is going to be forced into acquiring an upgrade and he doesn't get to set the price. He bit himself in the bum with the Sturm move and now the Goddess of Luck has struck down Loktionov. Tambellini's backyard is apparently filled with dead chickens.
Hemsky is the cheaper option for Lombardi.
I think Brayden Schenn will be an Oiler come Monday afternoon.
Which means we draft Larsson and Lowe's timeline is likely correct.
Sitting them out because we're afraid they might get hurt seems kind of drastic.
ReplyDeleteYou could argue that a good night by either of them, against a good team no less, could seal the deal for Lombardi or whoever else is looking.
Or is it "whomever"?
@spOILer
ReplyDeleteI suspect you are correct about Hemsky and the rebuild timeline.
@Brett Gee 英 明
True enough, but it has been done in the past where a player is sat out pending a trade going through.
This is a game of poker. You can't sit them out because that is showing your hand.
ReplyDeleteJones is very good to read on Twitter. Some are, some are not. It is not a medium that does Matty many favours.
ReplyDeleteI still like Vancouver once all their D get back
Think some of the disconnect between Penner's trade value is that the Oiler blogosphere is full of guys who really know the analytical stats very well. Penner does much better on that scale than the "saw him good" crowd (where I fall). Hemsky is the opposite the "saw him good" crowd literally gets to gasp at something he does 20 to 30 times a year. To Stauffer's credit saw what Penner did in each early.
LT has used the old time comparable to Frank Mahovolich. I expect the opposing players appreciated Frank's game much more than some fans
Gregor interviewed Lombardi a week 10 days ago and he said the playoffs are a war and big bodies are a premium. I expect there are a certain group of NHL GM's that would value what Penner is capable of in a playoff
spOILer: Great line about Tambellini's backyard and the dead chickens. Poor bastard chickens, ST can't make a hockey decision in a month of Sundays but he's hell on earth in the backyard.
ReplyDeletethe painful part for me about Hemsky, is that he is exactly the type of player teams add to push them over the hump and make a run at the cup. In 4 years we'll be looking to deal for a "Hemsky" type, if we do indeed send away a solid vet in his prime tomorrow. If the plan is 4 years out, then why deal him or Penner, when in 4 years we'll need top 6 31/32 yr old vets who can score and have 2 or 3 yrs left. Sign them both to a 5 year deal for around $5 mill, which does not break our cap space, since at this point only Hall and Eberle will get big money in 2 years. Gagner will be Stephen Weiss part 2 at $3 mill, and Gilbert will be the same or gone at $4 mill, with Whitney maybe getting a raise. No big ticket goalie, no wasted money on the back end and our cap situation will be fine in 4 yrs when we run for the cup. Or are my numbers way out of whack? off to capgeek to play.
ReplyDeleteMe Smitty
ReplyDeleteOF course Hemsky has more value. He is signed for another year to a value contract. That alone puts this in his favor
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteI dont think that sending Hemsky away will set us back that much if we end up keeping Penner. The trick is to sign an FA who is an ES outscorer: someone like Tanguay. He is available for cheap price. Lets not forget that sometimes trading away your best player does lay down grounds for progression, but important part is to have a wise person in the chair.
Bruins signed Chara after losing Thornton, Who would have thought that they would survive after trading him. Tanguay has been an ES outscorer all his career and while may not be as dynamic as Hemsky, but the difference may not cost more than 1 or 2 wins, which can be offset by making further schrewd signings
Players only sit out when the deal is already done, but the paperwork is still incomplete. Just like when one buys a used car, the previous owner stops driving it while you get the paperwork done.
ReplyDeleteDBO - because 4 years is a long time and we don't need them in the meantime.
We can make more use of what we get in exchange for them.
Also, they get a chance to accomplish more (go for it) somewhere else instead of toiling away in the salt mine that the Oilers have become.
LT, yup. It's not evaluation, it's augury.
ReplyDeleteWhy use your guts when a chicken's will do just fine.
Great read as always. A couple of things - I think every member of the local MSM is aware of this site, especially if LT & Jones know each other. So Jones probably doesn't brush off LT as just another cheeto eating nerd in a basement. And now that LT's a radio host, the respect level goes up too. I would hope that their writing gets better, I've noticed that Matheson writing has been weak for a long time now.
ReplyDeleteI also wonder how much more respect Hemsky would have if the Oilers would have won the Cup in 06? Maybe that's the difference in perception, although Richards did win the mvp of the playoffs, if I'm not mistaken.
@ WG
ReplyDeletefrom the previous thread. I did not know that Lucic was getting that lucky with shots. However, when its all said and done; If Lucic can continue to score 25 goals(which is possible with increase shots despite reduction in sh%) playing with the best players, then its all good! I see him as a comparable to Scott Hartnell who makes the same amount of money.
Well I see the Lucic signing as that Bruins thought he will outperform his contract towards the later part of the contract. The more prudent thing should have been to give him a 2 year contract and then extending him based on the performance!
The difference is the perception and also the PP points that he has accumulated.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore according to BTN, Richards has the worst Rel Corsi Qual comp. Ales Hemsky is 3rd in rel corsi qual comp. So Richards is also feasting on easier competition.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"Jones' has been a much better read since he got on twitter. It looks like he's been reading a lot of blogs and he's writing much more like a Oilogosphere blogger than he used to."
ReplyDeleteWhat is Terry Jones' twitter ID?
ok, so I retract my last post stating we would be good cap wise in 3 years when the kids need to be resigned and we add some players as well as keep Hemsky and Penner. here is what I came up with for a roster. moved out Omark, Cogs, Fraser, Foster, Bulin, and resigned the rest as well as a UFA or two and the kids coming (and drafted Larsson this coming year.)
ReplyDeleteFORWARDS
TAYLOR HALL ($6.000m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / ALES HEMSKY ($5.000m)
DUSTIN PENNER ($5.000m) / SAM GAGNER ($3.000m) / JORDAN EBERLE ($4.500m)
MAGNUS PAARJVI ($2.750m) / ANTON LANDER ($2.000m) / RYAN JONES ($1.500m)
CURTIS HAMILTON ($0.895m) / ROOKIE UFA ($0.895m) / TYLER PITLIK ($1.500m)
/ TEEMU HAARTIKANEN ($1.100m)
DEFENSEMEN
Tom Gilbert ($4.000m) / RYAN WHITNEY ($5.000m)
ADAM LARSSON ($3.750m) / THEO PECKHAM ($1.400m)
JEFF PETRY ($1.750m) / MARTIN MARINCIN ($0.895m)
ALEX PLANTE ($1.000m)
GOALTENDERS
DEVAN DUBNYK ($2.000m) / ROOKIE VET ($1.000m)
This comes to $76,445,000.00
A few things: Horcoff's deal will be an albatross in 3 years. With expected raises for Hall and Eberle, as well as the need for some higher end skill on the back end we will almost certainly need to move one of Penner or Hemsky if only for the money. Now we could make that move in 3 years time if needed, and move other pieces out and make sure the bottom 6 are cheaper, but from a dollars standpoint we are headed for a real problem in 3 years time when we have to resign the current rookie crop.
So I guess unless we go on a Chicago type of run in the next 2 years, then maybe it does make more sense to make a move now that will position ourselves to make a run in 3 or 4 years.
ReplyDeleteI guess the real question is: with our current players, are we 2 or 3 away from truly making a run in the last year of Eberle and Hall's deals? So, in 2 years are we a contender? if the answer is No, and we would have to make deals then anyways for cap reasons, so do we just do them now and get full value from a position of Strength, or do we make a run and be put in the Chicago position of blowing up the team and getting not much back.
Sum,
ReplyDeleteI think Hartnell is overpaid too. :)
Lucic makes more than Horton, I think Horton is probably slightly underpaid for his current performance, but it still highlights it.
LT,
As TOJ said, Large is hilarious on Twitter. Definitely the best Edmonton MSM sports writer on there, and its not close.
I always thought Jones' writing about the Oilers was unbalanced (in favour of management) and under informed on player performance. I don't think that's the case anymore.
Al Strachan has this to say in response to Jones on twitter (reminiscing about covering the Scotty 22 years ago):
"Your two most common comments were "double rum and coke" and "I think I forgot my wallet."
Beauty.
2 things
ReplyDelete1st you are not accouting for future trades. Furthermore, you are expecting a linear progression in development.
While I like what you have done, I think some of the salaries are inflated and take into account increasing cap. And yeah we may have to Huet Horcoff!
DBO,
ReplyDeleteYou might want to add again. I get that lineup in around 60 Million,
And given moderate inflation, that is probably what the cap will be then.
Plus, once the kids have that much experience, you might have to either buyout Horcoff or trade Penner for a D-man with a cheap-ish price tag for cap savings.
No problem.
Hall's salary is likely to be higher, IMO. And we'll need to spend more on goal. So there are problems, partially caused b the early end of Hall's ELC. But a good GM (uh oh!) could do well with what is here.
DBO,
ReplyDeleteYou said:
"This comes to $76,445,000.00"
I got 60.435MM.
and yes my math is not good this morning. so if it comes to $60 mill, then hell, keep them all!! go get more expensive players. So if it is $60 mill, then cam we add some top end talent right now to try and make a run both now and in 3 years. Crazy rumour on hot stove about Oil in on Richards. Would that work? would we do it? WOuld he do it?
ReplyDeleteWG is right!
ReplyDeleteits 60!
Well considering you might want to shore up that defense some more, might end up spendin about 62 million which shouel be the cap hit for about 2012-13
kris: Halls deal in my mind was one of those 7-10 year deals. Or you can look at it from a standpoint that some of the other deals may be too high. Always variance. If the cap goes up a bit year over year, then re sign Hemmer and Penner and run hard the next 2 years then make moves.
ReplyDeleteDBO: Wow, that really shows the penalty of starting ELC players too early. It would cost the Oilers $7-8M/yr by your estimate.
ReplyDeleteWhere is EasyOil
ReplyDeleteI need an English guy here!!!
Jesus.
ReplyDeleteWG touched on this right off the bat but what a transformation Jones has made in terms of his insight and stances?
That last piece about "there are no guarantees with most of the young prospects and/or draft choices who would be coming the other way."
that is either straight from the sphere or the guy's taken on a whole new POV and either or is fine with me.
That was a really good breakdown from him.
I'll get into this more when I get back home but if you're the Oilers could you really turn down Schenn and Simmonds for Hemsky?
Penner is an interesting guy. He seems to play MUCH better when things count. His game rises and falls depending upon the 'worth' of the game. On a team playing for last place - he really doesn't bother to crank it up. Last year he played great - until it became clear that the team was hopeless.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I think this impacts his trade value a lot and that he probably cannot fetch as much as he should because he has not been playing up to the level he can.
I would keep him and see what he looks like on an Oilers team trying to make the playoffs next year (unlike this year where the season had an * on it saying 'designed for a last place finish' from day one).
I think he may be worth more as a rental a year from now than he is as a 1 year and 3 month player today.
We will look back in 3 years and say what bleeping moron signed Horcoff for these $$ and for this term. It is a Reddenesque, Brian Campbell type salary clog on the Oiler payroll. We are actually living through the value years of this contract from a cap perspective. Still a very decent player
ReplyDeleteMy fear with trading either of AH or DP is that if we get prospects, nobody knows who will develop. LT had a great example. The Toronto Maple Leafs D from the early 70's is the perfect example, most of them looked to have a great trajectory and then became who they became.
Love our prospects and would really like Schenn and Johannesen sp? But no one can tell where they will end up. The guys who can do that are truly gifted. I think back to when Philly threw out an RFA offer on Kesler, just think if he played on that team, hyper super douche backed up by a very tough team but what an addition
I would rather target real good 3 rd and 4th liners from teams that want a little more scoring for Brule, Cogs, etc
If, as LT reasonably speculates, Hemsky gets traded Monday for what we can only fear will be an underwhelming return, the list of reasons to be an Oilers fan will be a very short one.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, after this blog I am hard pressed to think of another; let's hope LT's wife doesn't demand a trade to somewhere with mild winters....
Buying Horcoff's last year out works so well that buying out his last 2 years may also work.
ReplyDeleteI am still laughing at Jones tweet about JJ Hebert not overseeing the reporters in press box because he was over pestering the NHL official scorer to get the Oiler SOG total up.
ReplyDeleteThat is an example of something that I thought might be weird, Oilers lose 4 to 1 but have 71 SOG. After the tweet have watched shots at goal and they are accurate. If the Oilers shoot at opposing goal, in general, SOG goes up
Hilarious!!
I'll get into this more when I get back home but if you're the Oilers could you really turn down Schenn and Simmonds for Hemsky?
ReplyDeleteDennis: I'd say such an offer falls right into the category of the "knock off socks" $1.20 on the dollar type deal that Tambellini would have to be offered in order to pull the trigger. Schenn plus Fobort would also qualify.
IN the mode of a "hockey deal", would anyone take this? With the Rangers looking for scoring hep, and having some solid two way players, would anyone do Hemsky for Callahan? Doubt the Rags would move him, but Sather is a crazy trader, and they need some O help. Callahan would be a great fit on this team, bringing some goal scoring to go with his hitting machine mentality and great two way play. The deals so far show teams are willing to make NHL moves, not just prospect moves.
ReplyDeleteDeano
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on most things but at what point in time can the Oilers quit leading the free world in buyouts and major bucks buried in the minors. Even the Leafs with 200 million in annual revenue cannot afford to bury $$$ in the minors.
If we don' watch it the Oilers will soon be saying Rexall is so inadequate, that they are losing $$$
And given moderate inflation, that is probably what the cap will be then.
ReplyDeleteThere's scuttlebutt that the cap will go just over 61MM next year.
Also, ESPN is negotiating with the NHL for next year, and the "no money down, revenue sharing" deal with NBC is over.
There is almost certainly going to be a NBA lockout. There might be a NFL lockout.
Sportscasters are scrambling for content and for the first time in a long, long time the NHL TV numbers are growing and they are negotiating from a stronger position that ever.
Couple new TV revenue with a very strong Canadian Petro Dollar and sold out Canadian rinks, and you probably have a $65MM cap in 3 years.
TOJ - it only works because the deal was so bad in the first place. Horcoff's buyout cap hit plus his replacement come in for less than the $5.5 cap hit.
ReplyDeleteIf it isn't already evident, I don't give a damn how much money Katz makes or loses, so long as its not my money that he's making without earning it.
If Hemsky has indicated a desire to stay, I would take that into consideration prior to trading him away for others.
ReplyDeleteThe primary focus of a lot of GMs (armchair or otherwise) has been talent and skillset, but right now I think Edmonton needs to remember the 'culure' of the room. If Hemsky loves snow, cold, media exposure, fan adulation/contempt, and the other things that Edmonton offers, then that is a huge plus that needs to be considered.
Given that I don't know what the real situation is I will have a hard time evaluating any trade. For all I know Hemksy may have requested a trade and that would change a lot about what trade should be made (vs the 'if Hemsky loves it here and is looking forward to the future')
Anyway, the guy is a great player and some of the comments I read this morning (on other sites) suggesting he is a 'third liner' or that he 'doesn't compete and has a losing attitude' remind me that the average IQ is about 100 and that I have to be patient with those on the lower end of the scale because they are simply doing the best that they can.
not sure if it's been mentioned., but looks like our 4th line tonight is Brule between Jones and Macintyre.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling we're going to see a trade on deadline day that both Oiler fand and LA fans hate.
ReplyDeleteSomething like Hemsky, plus one of Hamilton/Martindale/Pitlick, and a draft pick for Schenn.
LA fans will hate it because they lose Schenn. And Oiler fans will hate it because their team gave up both the best player in the deal and then added even more quality to it for an unproven prospect.
it's probably obvious, but I meant "fans" not "fand"
ReplyDeleteMisfit,
ReplyDeleteI lay awake at night fearing that you are right in predicting that scenario. I've had the same fear.
I hope you're not.
It seems the majority of fans on this blog want to keep Hemsky and Penner because they want to compete next year.
ReplyDeleteJust wondering how those fans are planning on upgrading the center position because the only club with worse centers in the league is Toronto.
The smart GM already has Anton Lander projected in the 3C role.
Seems upgrading the C position is impossible without moving 1 of Gagner or Horcoff because whoever we take in June will be playing in the top 6 come October.
So who should be leaving town Lowetiders? Gagner, Horcoff or better yet, both?
DBO: That'l be great (5%) or a disaster (95%).
ReplyDeleteTraktor: That's not ''Smart'' it's overprojection.
ReplyDeleteWe're pretty fck'ed if the best option comes to sending him to the AHL.
Considering MPS' offense on his previous year and comparing with Lander you'd expect his offense to not be quite there yet.
That would leave us with:
Penner-Couturier-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Eberle
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Omark
Jones-Cogs-Reddox
Traktor: That's really the wrong way to look at it because you have to find centers first before making room, but I realize you're trolling so I'll humour you. I'd start by brooming out Cogliano for a 2nd-3rd and then see what Gagner can get you. I can't see a scenario in which Horcoff is dealt and it makes sense.
ReplyDeleteCrazy time:
ReplyDeleteI know it's not Lombardi's MO to go for the blockbuster but he has the cap space so why not just swing for the fences and get BOTH Hemsky & Penner?
To LA: Hemsky & Penner
To Edm: Schenn, Simmonds + (one of Clifford, Forbort, Voynov, #1 pick)
Commence rioting.
I kind of agree with Misfit, and yet I don't. If Tambellini goes back with a sweetener to get Schenn he loses all leverage.
ReplyDeleteUnless it's something like Jones or Vandermeer; giving away any "futures" in a deal for a future is a non-starter in my book.
I think RiversQ has it right: you keep your quality centers (the drop-off between 10 and 89 and the other pivots currently on this team is, to say the least, significant) and try to clear out the redundant "plugs" at the bottom of the roster who can easily be replaced and upgraded upon (Cogliano, Brule and Fraser).
ReplyDeleteLet's face it - most good teams have three decent lines anyways, so if we add Couturier to Horcoff and Gagner, it actually puts us going in the right direction. In summer 2013, there may be a salary concern that forces a move with the last two years of Horcoff's deal, but as the earlier salary projections show, if the cap goes to 64-65 million by then, it might not be an issue at all.
Tambellini has the easiest job in the world when it comes to Hemsky-Schenn. He's made his point, the offer was rejected and Lombardi went public.
ReplyDeleteST can now wait for the phone to ring. Or not.
Either way, the die is cast.
What is Terry Jones' twitter ID?
ReplyDelete@sunterryjones
RQ,
While I don't agree with the Oilers starting so many ELC's this year, you do have to pay them eventually.
This could have been handled differently, but the net gain on the cap in any given year would be much less than $7MM.
Eberle had to start this year.
MPS would have to start next year.
Even if you hold Hall back one year, but you can't hold him back 2.
LT: That's my point. HE has the player people want. He's established the price. He shouldn't be the one calling Lombardi or anyone else.
ReplyDeleteIf he tries to sweeten the deal, he's admitting the asking price was too high, and it diminishes his perceived value.
Moose: Yeah, agreed. Now, that doesn't mean he's GOING to have the courage of his (stated) convictions but that's the play.
ReplyDeleteWG: He's got Larsson in there at $3.75M/yr as well. So I counted second contract overpays as $4-5M to Hall, $1.0-1.5M to Paajarvi, and about $2M to Larsson. Either way, the example shows it costs you cap space when it hurts most.
ReplyDeleteLT: If he does hold out, regardless of the outcome I think we can say it's an up arrow for Tambellini.
ReplyDeleteFPB: Absolutely. If he ends Monday with 83 and 27 on the roster there'll be no reason to rip the guy. It's the safe, smart play.
ReplyDeleteMan I can't stand reading posts on other boards by the sheeple thinking we need to trade Gilbert and that hes such a horrible player. What are these guys on, crack? The guy is a 3-4 defenseman stuck in a 1-2 role, don't slam him cause he isn't the second coming of Paul Coffey. The comment about the average iq being 100 is right. Its just frustrating to read that garbage.
ReplyDeleteI can't remember who said it, but it went something like this:
ReplyDelete"Not making a trade might bite you in the ass, but making a bad trade WIlL bite you in the ass."
We all rip on Tambellini for his tendency towards inactivity, but in this situation, that tendency might just be beneficial.
The bigger worry is if Lowe runs through the door to the Oiler trade deadline war-room at noon tomorrow and decides "we need to get three assets each for Hemsky and Penner, and we need them today".
Flaming Bure:
ReplyDeleteI'm not worried about Lander's offense. He's a defensive workhorse and a proven leader at all levels.
Maybe he needs 20 games in the AHL but the smart GM already has him penciled in for the 3C job.
Now you have the foresight to see that kind of thing and get max value for a player like Gagner now (Bogo?) or wait it out and get 20 cents down the road...
Seems upgrading the C position is impossible without moving 1 of Gagner or Horcoff because whoever we take in June will be playing in the top 6 come October.
ReplyDeleteThey will? And for sure not if they take Larsson.
Think the Flames would Capdump Stajan?
That would give the Oilers
Horcoff, Gagner, Stajan, Lander, Fraser
for next season - depth, plus plenty of mix'n'match options.
If the Oilers draft Larssen, he should stay in Sweden next year to gain an extra year's experience and push his ELC start date back one year.
Its not like he's playing in the OHL for free.
If the prospects (Pitlick, Hamilton, Marcinin, Petry, Plant) pan out salary cap management will become the single biggest issue confronting Oiler management. That is ID which kids you want to keep and budget how much $$ you have to spend going forward. They should already have a complete plan in place for that. Any odds of which of you think the Oilers are proactive in that area? Cuz you are dreaming if you think Mr. Dithers is doing that
ReplyDeleteWG
NHL better strike while iron is hot because I can easily foresee a 24 team league in 5 years if US economy and US$ continue to tank. That could decimate any gains from CDN$ appreciation. I expect if numbers were analyzed ALL of the increase in league wicked hockey related revenue is directly tied to CDN$ increase
Not most, all
LT
If he stands pat on "meet my price or no deal", agreed. Now is, though, the very best time to be trading unwanted smurfs and 2 or 3 of our # 8 dmen for picks or, gasp, bottom six players who can actually fill a role. Ie, like the centre from the memorial cup champion Red Deer Rebel that can win draws and kill penalties.
At entry draft GM's tend to spend so much time getting ready for draft that they throw them around, via trades, like manhole covers.
I think he may be worth more as a rental a year from now than he is as a 1 year and 3 month player today.
ReplyDeleteI have been pretty miffed with Penners play recently. I expect the scouts have come away less than impressed. The question is why.
Perhaps its adjusting to marriage or injury or too may burritos. Or perhaps his agent and Tambo had the talk, and Penner indicated he did not want to stay. In those circumstances I could see him losing interest or feeling less a part of the team.
In any event, I expect we will see a big improvement in Penner's play next season - it is a contract year. He should not have a big problem with motivation.
TOJ: If all those kids pan out, as you say, that salary cap problem is a problem you almost WANT to have.
ReplyDeleteAnd even if they do "pan out", how expensive could Hamilton be if he ends up being a 15G-15A third liner, for example?
The salary issues are manageable as long as the management doesn't make any costly mistakes chasing white whales in the UFA market once the Souray and Khabibulin contracts are off the books. If we can get to the point where Horcoff being overpaid by 1.5 million cap-hit wise is the biggest "issue" on this team's payroll, we're going to be in better shape than a lot of teams.
I'm a big fan of Hemsky and think any deal has to have a big return--Dennis' Schenn + Simmonds would qualify, IMO--but I do think all the talk of risk of prospects not turning out has to be balanced against risk of Hemsky not being healthy enough to play when this team is ready to compete. There is no such thing as a risk-free play; you're always making bets of some kind so you need to stack them enough in your favor that you win in the long run. Hemsky's durability concerns, coupled with his playing style, have to be factored into the equation (as does the possibility of the sure-fire prospect getting Stadjuhar'ed outside of Goose Loonies).
ReplyDeleteCouturier
ReplyDeleteSchenn
Lander
That's what the smart GM would try and build down the middle.
The clubs a contender without Hemsky, Penner, Hall or Eberle.
WG: He's got Larsson in there at $3.75M/yr as well. So I counted second contract overpays as $4-5M to Hall, $1.0-1.5M to Paajarvi, and about $2M to Larsson. Either way, the example shows it costs you cap space when it hurts most.
ReplyDeleteRQ,
I'm assuming that the 3.75 for Larsson is his ELC max rookie contract, same as Hall's.
All ELC bonuses count against the cap now.
So Hall making 6.0 is a 2.25 premium on his 3.75 max ELC, and MPS is 1.5M premium, so its only a total of 3.75 premium paid due to starting Hall and MPS early.
I want him to stand at on 83 and 27 unless he gets a great deal OR there has been an indication by the players that they are 'out of here' come trade deadline.
ReplyDeleteWith that said - I would love to see some mid level trades that address one or two of the weaknesses on the team (3rd line centre, PKer, etc.). It is getting time to start re-building after last years 'tear down'. I am ok with no trades if nothing good comes available at a good price, but I at least want Tambi to be thinking about the 'holes' and the 'balance' of this team.
You could argue that a good night by either of them, against a good team no less, could seal the deal for Lombardi or whoever else is looking.
ReplyDeleteOr is it "whomever"?
"Whoever" - it's a subject. Though the filthy descriptivists now accept "whoever" as an object, too, so I guess you're always safe with that.
I'm not worried about Lander's offense. He's a defensive workhorse and a proven leader at all levels.
Maybe he needs 20 games in the AHL but the smart GM already has him penciled in for the 3C job.
So are you bumping Cogliano up to 1C, then?
Traktor et al.,
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is a slight overstatement, but really, you can't count on more than one of Lander, Hamilton, Marincin, Pitlick, and Martindale becoming anything more than an NHL/AHL tweener, or half decent plug, after an AHL run.
They might all turn out great right away, but that would be incredibly improbable given how strong late 1st round/2nd round picks progress in general.
Remember, Pouliot, Nilsson, Schremp, Smid, JDD, Dubnyk, Cogliano, Brule, Chorney, Grebeshkov, Riley Nash, and Jacques all had excellent pedigree once too.
Imagine how much you would've lost trading Hemsky for all of them together, even though that deal would've looked like you were securing your future. 10 First Round Picks and two 2nd rounders just for Hemsky! And Brule was a lottery pick!
That's not to say Lander isn't an awesome prospect. Nor does it imply we shouldn't deal Hemsky or anyone else. But it shows that you can't win reliably by hoarding late first round and second round picks. You need to get some guys who are proven players and you need to hold on to some proven players.
It neither safe, nor smart, to keep Hemsky unless you're dollars to doughnuts sure that he's willing to extend.
ReplyDeleteRight now 83 is an asset which can benefit this team for years, either as an extended contract, or as a chip to land a prospect that's tracking to be a quality NHLer.
Letting the deadline pass, without knowing he can extend, is diminishing the asset. He will not fetch as much as a UFA rental.
If other GMs aren't offering quality then yeah there's that, theres no need to deal him for the sake of dealing him, but not finding that deal might be a bad event in the Oilers history.
"So are you bumping Cogliano up to 1C, then?"
ReplyDeleteI'm using him as a sweetener to get rid of Horcoff.
Cogs + Horc for Komi
The clubs a contender without Hemsky, Penner, Hall, or Eberle
ReplyDeleteOh my, that's really false.
Danny: You're asking yourself to fill in blanks that even the player and management can't answer at this time.
ReplyDeleteThere's no real way to factor in that bet imo. Either the entire conversation crumbles or I have to buy in to your version of the argument.
There's no area for discussion.
Kris, it's only fair that we not reach that conclusion until we see what statistics he's prepared to cherrypick and misrepresent in support of his argument. Open mind, and all that.
ReplyDeleteCouturier
ReplyDeleteSchenn
Lander
That's what the smart GM would try and build down the middle.
The clubs a contender without Hemsky, Penner, Hall or Eberle.
Ok, I had made a promise not to feed the trolls (especially the alpha-male of the group), and this post is about as obvious as trolling gets, but in this case I'm going to bite, because this is too damn easy. (The only thing more hilarious than if this is trolling is if you actually believe it to be the truth).
Yes, we can say that with absolute certainty when Couturier and Lander haven't played a single NHL game and Schenn has played nine that such an NHL squad is going to be a powerhouse, without even considering the makeup of the remainder of the team or the fact we have no guarantee how those three prospects will pan out. (Insert "upside-down exclamation point Bookie-sarcasm-thingy here").
Saying they don't even need Hall, Eberle, Hemsky or Penner to do so is just the cherry on the sundae of stupid that such a statement is. The only thing that team guaranteed to contend for is lottery picks for the next 3 seasons minimum.
Lowetide: as GM of this particular forum, sometime between now and the deadline tomorrow, could you see if you could deal Traktor to a blog looking for a 4th line agitator to support their stretch-drive and playoff run? And if that doesn't work, I'd suggest putting him on waivers for purposes of re-assignment.
TOJ....
ReplyDeleteWe're never playing frisbee together. Ever. I just want you to know that.
We all rip on Tambellini for his tendency towards inactivity, but in this situation, that tendency might just be beneficial.
ReplyDeleteWell, as you all know (and are probably sick of reading) I see Tambo's patience as a big asset on a lot of fronts.
A good rebuild takes some time - as Brian Burke doesn't seem to understand.
Having said that, I would would happy with Hemsky for Schenn + Monday. It would set back the clock somewhat, but it would plug a big hole at C. Add in Couturier, and all of a sudden there is some real depth at C - which is critical.
And maybe RiversQ or someone can explain this too me (again). Given DBO's very good analysis above, why is there this fear that the Oilers are in trouble once the ELC's are ending?
Today is Rod Philips last game.
ReplyDelete@ PunjabiOil
ReplyDeleteput the tv on mute and sound on radio!
Keeping him is as big a gamble as any of it. Its imperative that 83 doesn't walk away for next to nothing. This is a major major asset that's going to shape the franchises future.
ReplyDeleteIMO Schenn is the safe play and thats scary.
We don't know that Schenn is available. If you base your actions on things you don't know (and could change in the future) then it doesn't take long for you to settle on a lesser value.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers hold the cards. There's no better angle, there's no way to win this without risk either way.
ST thinks a lot, let's pray he doesn't overthink this deadline.
One thing I will say about the next two years being a "window" due to the Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi ELC time frame, is that "window" could well be extended a year if a few of the other recent draft picks turn out.
ReplyDeleteAssuming they sign this summer, all of Hamilton, Lander, Pitlick, Martindale, Marincin*, 2011 1st round pick*, 2011 2nd round pick will still be on ELC contracts through the 2013/14 season. Of course, I don't know how many of those players will be providing significant surplus value by the third year of their ELC, if any...
* Marincin and the 2011 1st and 2nd round picks could see their ELC's continue past the 2013/14 season, depending how they are handled.
That said, I really like:
ReplyDeleteSchenn, Lander, and Hamilton.
I just don't like the idea of assuming they'll be able to play tough minutes right away. Assuming that solid prospects can play tough minutes right away and then pencilling them in at key positions has been the Oilers losing strategy for almost 20 years now.
(We got a break only one year when some Pronger, Peca, and the rentals pushed the kids down the depth chart, and, to a lesser extent, a few years when management could hold on to solid veterans like Weight, Smyth, Grier, Marchant, etc. Other than that, it's been rookies with a decent future having to play above their depth for 20 years. Just like Lander at 3C or 2C next year.)
@ LT
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Are-Paul-Stastny-Brayden-Schenn-safe-from-deadl?urn=nhl-326954
"It would have to be really something significant. The way his stock has risen here with the world junior and what he's done, it would have to be really special, and quite frankly, I don't think he's going anywhere."
"Don't think" vs. "not going."
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteIt's not that the Oilers are in trouble once the ELC's of 4/14/91 end, it's that they may not have maximized the value from those ELC's that they could have had they done things somewhat differently.
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteSeriously. How will I live with the burden that is never having an opportunity to play frisbee with you?
What if I agreed with you on everything you post? Told you what you wanted to hear? Said you were the smartest guy in the room (never mentioning the size of the room)? Agreed that present management were not complete tools (ok, I can't do the latter)?
These are things I need to know?
Duce
You definately have more patience than I do.
On PJO's comment. Rod was a very good and memorable PBP guy and wish him every success!!!
Postscript: PJO contining on your "always certain, sometimes right campaign" can you select your pick for our 2011 #1 pick and slag the balance of the field from today till the draft with the same ferocity of your 2010 "Taylor, never that complete douche Tyler" campaign of last year. :-)))
Wasn't MPS's contract going to count as a year, irrespective of whether he was in the NHL or AHL? I recall something along those lines for first rounders as per the latest SEL/NHL agreement.
ReplyDeleteEberle's years would have started ticking off this year.
Hall has clearly shown he's ready for the NHL. You' have to really assess whether pissing off a franchise player to defer an additional 1-3M cap hit for another year would be worth it. On the flipside, loyalty shown to Hall could yield benefits down the road in the form of a 'Sedin' esque hometown discount. It's definitely not an open-and-shut case.
The bigger key, IMO, will be to avoid the disastrous contracts akin to KhabiDUIlin. Sadly, my confidence in Steve Tambellni is at a 52-week low.
This "the Oilers have a two year window stuff is nonsenses".
ReplyDeleteA proper rebuild leads to relatively permanent competitiveness.
Did the Canucks window close when they lost Naslund, Morrison, Bertuzzi, and Ohlund?
If Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Gagner, and Larsson are "real" players, and MBS keeps the pipeline of prospects full, the window won't close after Hemsky and Penner and Horcoff are gone.
It will lead to bad decision-making to say the Oilers have to win the Cup in two years.
put the tv on mute and sound on radio!
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just my cable connection, but I find the radio call is always a couple seconds ahead of the TV feed, so this doesn't work as well as it did back in the day.
As for tonight's game being Rod's last, did something change from the originally announced schedule of "Rod's Classics"?
Because if it didn't, he should have three broadcasts left after this one.
We don't know if he's available, or what Hemskys intentions are, but Tambellini should be pretty damn sure.
ReplyDeleteSeriously. How will I live with the burden that is never having an opportunity to play frisbee with you?
ReplyDeleteWhat if I agreed with you on everything you post? Told you what you wanted to hear? Said you were the smartest guy in the room (never mentioning the size of the room)? Agreed that present management were not complete tools (ok, I can't do the latter)?
Um, I think he was just saying that he didn't want to play frisbee with a guy who thought that "throwing [something] around like manhole covers" was a reasonable figure of speech. I don't think he was attacking your overall point.
The other John - such a campaign in Fiscal 2011 would be artificial.
ReplyDeleteThe Taylor Hall movement was organic.
That said, I'm a Sean Couturier guy this year. Want no part of Ryan Nugent Hopkins, and have a strong vibe he won't reach his projections. The warning signs are already there with his Schremp-esque powerplay production inflating his totals.
TOJ...
ReplyDeleteBro, I was referring to the flying manhole covers.
I am pretty sure that Swedes like MPS and Larssen can play in the AHL and their ELC's slide a year.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I think the AHL is a better place for Larssen that Sweden. Smaller ice, more physical play in the AHL than in Sweden.
SS
ReplyDeleteThanks for your explanation. Your principal will appreciate insights like this moving forward
Actually wondering how I pissed Spoiler off today though.
PJO
Seriously, go for it in 2011. Last year was hilarious. That douche Sequin is slow footed, has an IQ of38, is a butt munching super douche who hates all mothers and everyone from Western Canada. Classic material!!
This year you have a much larger field to slag and if you are right Godlike status awaits you
I think another year in the SEL makes more sense for Larsson than the AHL.
ReplyDeleteRundblad will be in Ottawa, and Larsson will get to play the prominent offensive D role.
Thanks for your explanation
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure - discord around here makes me sad, except where I create it.
Said you were the smartest guy in the room (never mentioning the size of the room)?
ReplyDeletethis reminded me of this.
I don't think massive boxcars in Sweden are necessary for Larsson's development.
ReplyDeleteThey would shut up fpb, but who cares? We come here to disagree anyway.
I would rather AL learn the North American game ASAP.
Deano: Yeah cause having concern over a prospect who's statistically regressing by a good margin and was hindered by injury makes no sense at all.
ReplyDeleteA good year in the AHL could do the same.
Little comment on Matheson's comments on Bogosin for Hemsky and Petry.
ReplyDeleteIf, and its a huge IF, Hemmer is not coming back.... that would give us pretty good (and young) 1st D pairing moving forward: Whitney and Bogs. Move Gilbert to 2nd unit, Peckham to 3rd pairing, etc. Right ripple effect
Major hole filled in
You forget you are dealing with 18-year old kids. I'd rather Larsson worry only about hockey next year, than culture shock.
ReplyDeleteGive him a chance to dominate in the SEL next year.
THJ: That's one of the worst deals i've ever heard.
ReplyDeleteBogosian can't play 1st pairing D, let alone on the Oil. Guy's not progressing.
Jesus. Shiny rocks.
TSN.ca: Seabrook extended by Chicago, 29 million over 5 years for a cap-hit of 5.8 per.
ReplyDeleteI can't argue with keeping your homegrown talent and ensuring that one of the best defense pairings in the league remains in-tact for the next half-decade, even at an overpay (which I'm seeing here by 800k per), but on the other hand....5.8 million for a d-man whose previous career high in points is 32 seems a tad steep.
fpb
ReplyDeleteYou are wrong
SumOiL: Bogosian's numbers have been posted in earlier threads and it was made pretty clear he can' handle 1st pairing.
ReplyDelete@ Hbomb
ReplyDeleteI have no problems with that contract. Top pairing. Hard hitting
he is like a lesser version of Chara /Weber
FPB
ReplyDeleteThink you are wrong but will leave it to the # analytics guys to comment.
Young, big, fast, hard shooting D are hard to find and Whitney "thinks" the game plemty fine for him and his partner
guy has been having some difficulty playing top pairing as a 20 yr old.
ReplyDeleteIf Smid/Peckham can play tpo pairing on the Oil. I dont see how Bogosian cant cant do it. Furthermore, I dont think he is not progressing.
You are wrong
ReplyDeleteIt's supposed to be an all-caps, Sum.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGodot: You could, in theory, always have Larsson and Lander both in the AHL next season.
ReplyDeletePersonally, if the Oilers draft Larsson, I'd rather see him in the AHL than the SEL, if nothing else to familiarize himself with the smaller ice, different game style, etc, in NA vs. Europe.
It's just wild speculation, but I would guess that if EDM draft Larsson they'll actually just play him in the NHL, but I guess we'll see.
SS
ReplyDeleteJust a wide eyed guess, but did you get your friends into a variety of dust ups largely with your mouth? ;-))))
THJ: Foster can shoot hard too.
ReplyDeleteQC: 0,020 (1st D)
QT: -0,080 (5th D)
CORSI REL: -9,9 (6th D, worst of team)
GFON/60: 1,62
GAON/60: 2,71
On Ice Save%: ,923
PK
GAON/60: 7,89 (Last on D)
PP
GFON/60: 3,82 (10th out of 13)
Just a wide eyed guess, but did you get your friends into a variety of dust ups largely with your mouth? ;-))))
ReplyDeleteUntil they started to discover that they all had urgent commitments elsewhere the moment I started running my mouth off, yes.
TOJ said...
ReplyDeleteActually wondering how I pissed Spoiler off today though.
Bud, you didn't. Just my apparently weakass over-the-top attempt at poking fun at your metephor. Was playing it solely for laughs.
LT: There are thin skinned guys in the Edmonton media? I never would have ROBIN BROWNLEE guessed.
ReplyDeleteOne thing to consider, in terms of trading Hemsky for Bogosian, is you might be able to just sign the guy away as an RFA this summer for a much lower asset cost, even though he'd cost you more money.
ReplyDeleteFor 2011, the compensation for Bogosian on a 2 year 9.8 mil deal might be a 1st and a 3rd. Maybe ATL matches that, maybe not not, but you could front load the deal so that:
(a) it might be harder for ATL to match
(b) you'll be able to qualify him at a lower salary, and ideally sign him to a longer term deal after that 2 year deal.
Of course, the RFA option might be out the window if ATL moves him before July 1. Who knows, maybe that's the reason he's kinda, sorta on the market now, from Dudley's prespective, if he can get good value now.
Just on the Terry Jones point: I've had media guys here tell me he's a great guy too. Man's got a reputation.
ReplyDeleteThe burning question for me is: WHy is Bogo available in the first place?
ReplyDeleteSmells off.
Spoiler
ReplyDelete.....got it once explained to me by SS
FTC,
ReplyDeleteI don't know if they use commas instead of decimal points, i.e. periods, in la belle province, but here we do. It's just harder to read what you're writing when you don't follow standard convention.
I don't know if they use commas instead of decimal points, i.e. periods
ReplyDeleteThey do. My math profs in French immersion had a hell of a time training us to say "virgule" ("comma") in place of "point" ("period" or, in this case, "point") when reading off decimals. Also in teaching us French generally. I didn't really develop any kind of command of the language until I spent a summer planting trees with a bunch of Quebecois, and of course that's since abandoned me too.
Have we confirmed whether this is in fact Rod's last game? Because I've got other plans, but if this is it for him I probably need to drop them.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure this will piss fpv off -who I am coming to love more and more for his rascal ways- but every French person I've ever met has assured me that the Quebecois people most certainly do not speak French. So you couldn't have learned it from your friends.
Although, depending what the Oilers do this summer and next season, one could argue that 2012 1st may well have more value than Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteBut MC's idea of signing an RFA to short-term, front loaded OS, then planning to renegotiate a cheaper long term deal once that contract has expired, and the player is still an RFA, might make some sense and be a good fit with Bogosian, ATL, and EDM.
SS
ReplyDeleteOther plans?? have you invited a bunch of friends out to get beaten up after you tell # of U of A football players that their girlfiends should shave their legs if they are going to go to the bar Saturday night and are excessively friendly after a few beers
Gentlemen: Is Bogosin as bad as FTD says?
quoting Moose,
ReplyDeleteCrazy time:
I know it's not Lombardi's MO to go for the blockbuster but he has the cap space so why not just swing for the fences and get BOTH Hemsky & Penner?
To LA: Hemsky & Penner
To Edm: Schenn, Simmonds + (one of Clifford, Forbort, Voynov, #1 pick)
Commence rioting.
I don't think you are crazy, I had the same fantasy just before I woke up this morning.
But the salary exchange in that scenario doesn't work for LA's cap.
Applicable salaries:
Penner/Hemsky = 8.35 M cap hit
Simmonds = .821 cap hit
LA cap space = 5.21 M
That leaves another 2.32 M to come out of LA to fit under the cap under the blockbuster scenario, Moose.
all figures from capgeek.com
Kris: Partial truth.
ReplyDeleteA good part speaks with the local accent (and words). But there's also a few who just speak international french (I do).
Tough it is true, we do not use points for decimals.
Always tough i'd make more sense, because the comma just marks a pause, then continue, while the dot is just the end of something. Which is not the case, in the case of decimals.
I'm sure this will piss fpv off -who I am coming to love more and more for his rascal ways- but every French person I've ever met has assured me that the Quebecois people most certainly do not speak French.
ReplyDeleteIn many respects, they speak a purer French than they do in France, because when Quebec was effectively cut off from the motherland it became quite linguistically conservative (while in France it was allowed to evolve as languages generally are, with Quebec surrounded by English its residents made a greater point of holding on to their language as it existed at the time). On the other hand, it's lately incorporated a great many anglicisms, which I suspect is more the influence of American media than that of English Canada.
Bogosin is better than Peckman, but he might not be as valuable as Gagne because he'll probably never turn into a Bowmeester.
ReplyDeleteWe'll all know who runs the organisation when Tambo steps up to the podium in June with his patented shit eating smile and says "The Edmonton Oilers in the second round are happy to select Keegan Lowe".
ReplyDeleteOther plans?? have you invited a bunch of friends out to get beaten up after you tell # of U of A football players that their girlfiends should shave their legs if they are going to go to the bar Saturday night and are excessively friendly after a few beers
ReplyDeleteI was much more sophisticated than that - my preferred approach to alienating U of A football players was trying to get a portion of their funding revoked.
(My motivations for doing so were actually a good deal more complex, and I would say noble, than that, though that didn't always come across well.)
Okay, I'm heading out, so that the rest of you may focus on "hockey", that apparently being part of this blog's focus.
Flying manholes? ...err, nevermind.
ReplyDeleteManholes and other metaphors are not frowned on here as Robin Brownlee is not in charge (you had to see his ON rant on "buzzwords" to understand). I was surprised a person paid to write for a living was so uncomfortable with such a basic literary concept.
I guess we should just leave the metaphors to Jesus.
WMWJU?
Hunter: well he would seem like a legitimate 3rd/4th rounder.
ReplyDeleteNot a lot of offense (21 in 61) but he's +29 on a not so good team.
hoil:
ReplyDeleteI'm under the impression that LA has the cap space to take on both, as they only have to pay ~1/4 of Penner/Hemsky's cap space.
http://capgeek.com/tracker/team.php?team=17&date=2011-02-27
If they don't trade Hemsky, add some talent in the offseason, and win some games next year, it seems pretty obvious that #83 stays.
ReplyDeleteThis would be the logical course for anyone but our FOUR MORE YEARS!!!! crew...
@ Steve Smith: You state Quebec speaks better French than in France, which is ridiculous. I hope for your sake you're trying to take the piss.
ReplyDeleteIt's like saying Canadians speak better English in Toronto than in London, because of the United Empire Loyalist influence.
Language is an organic thing, that constantly morphs and fits itself to suit the era it's being spoken in.
You might as well try to argue that Toronto speaks superior English than London UK, because of the United Empire Loyalists, or that they speak better English in backwoods Kentucky, since they too have been cut off from outside influences since pioneers arrived in the early 18th century, notwithstanding Burt Reynolds and the Deliverance film production crew.
Okay, I'm heading out, so that the rest of you may focus on "hockey", that apparently being part of this blog's focus.
ReplyDeleteNope, we are navel-gazing on whatever topic it was that TOJ was taking us on.
And that's a second on the purer "Norman" french that the QC used to use (read The Two Solitudes).
I love the French - for sticking up against the American "culture".
ReplyDeleteThey seem to be the only independent thinking nation around in Europe lately.
And for all the Americans who read the blog who hate the French - if it wasn't for France you'd still be drinking tea and eating bacon sarnies for breakfast.
Language is an organic thing, that constantly morphs and fits itself to suit the era it's being spoken in
ReplyDeleteUnless its Icelandic. Then it is not so much.
And english still uses the core of words brought to it by the Angles, Jutes and Frisians when they punted the Celts to the corners.
I'm going to delete everything I've posted today, before I turn into Dave Hodge.
ReplyDeleteBruce does a good job interviewing Teemu Hartikainen
ReplyDeleteI see Teemu becoming a "Hart" & Soul player for the Oilers. /principe
He gives good reasons that every European player should acclimate to the game in the AHL.
The Oilers need more Finns.
speeds,
ReplyDeleteD'oh!
I think I made the mistake of reading the explanation for the max cap hit column and applied it to the cap space column. I think I should get my old man glasses out before I try my hand at any more guzintas.
Wouldn't Penner & Hemsky added to the Kings would change the odds in the SC sweepstakes considerably?
It would also make Edmonton a lottery contender again next season (they probably are anyway).
In retrospect my teasing about french, commas, etc. seems small minded and irritating. Please disregard.
ReplyDeleteI sort of want a trade just to see a new player to have something to talk about and watch.
Kris: Normally shit teams like the Oil mix things up with the guys on theyr farm clubs (Like ROM and Mcdonald, JFJ, Smac changeups).
ReplyDeleteWe just don't.
WG
ReplyDeleteBruce has become a pro at it!
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteDeliverance wasn't filmed in Kentucky.
It was filmed in mostly in Georgia, with additional filming in South and North Carolina.
For the record, it has been proven statistically that a heavy southern accent (w/o heavy twang) is the sexiest english accent known to man.
Seabrook is now the 7th highest paid D in the league, and he doesn't bring any offense. Huge overpay. The extra $4,000,000 or so they're spending on Seabrook and Campbell is just going to kill them and instantly burns all the value they have on Hossa and then some.
ReplyDelete--
I'm pretty worried that this is 83's last game.
CBJ and Phoenix are both teams that absolutely NEED to make the playoffs for revenue purposes and are right there.
If we figure that Simmonds + Schenn is what the Oilers want (young NHL player + top prospect)
... Voracek + Johanson?
... OEL + ?
Can probably also throw in NYR as a possibily (Stepan + McIlrath).
I'm not sure this will end well.
Hoil,
ReplyDeleteI caught that Brownlee comment too and was surprised. Thought it was more the place of one of the board regs to speak up, so I left it alone. I don't think any did though.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteDeliverance wasn't filmed in Kentucky.
That was Hunter - you're doing at least one of those gentlemen a disservice.
Back to hockey (really just avoidance behavior: hate doing performance reviews / watching Lakers/OKC game)
ReplyDeleteUnlike LA where I do not think owners give a shit: I think everyone in CBJ are deperate for playoffs. Hemsky or Penner get them a long way towards that goal
Some say Johanson is underperforming in Portland this year but he certainly looks talented and think??? MBS loved him
Besides Oil v. Brus tonight, at 5pm there's the replay of Canada USA Olympic final and the famous 1980 SCF Game 6 OT game between Isles and Flyers.
ReplyDeleteI'm okay with Johansen.
ReplyDeleteBad season debut but he seems like he just shifted gears. (Only if he comes with Voracek).
PDO: Well he's okay. He looks like he's projecting for 45-40 pts.
As for big Dylan I think i pasted him right the first time. Won't be an impact defender at NHL level.
fpv,
ReplyDeleteVery good point. I'd have liked to have seen a few more games of McDonald, Giroux, Belle, or Petiot instead of Jacques, Fraser, Strudwick, Foster, and Vandermeer.
I mean, our AHL guys might be worse, but we're losing anyway. Might as well let the fans have some fun seeing new players while sending our AHL and NHL guys the message that good play results in NHL time, and bad play results in demotion.
If we can snap out OEL and Gormley out of Phoenix somehow that would be fantastic.
ReplyDeleteJust saw on TSN's website that Duke Snider passed today at 84. Another link to the Expos gone. I remember as a little kid listening to Dave Van Horne and Duke call Expos games growing up.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Terry Jones...He has certainly become more critical of the organization recently and it's a welcome change. I've heard it said by Stauffer that Jones had virtually unlimited access to Pocklington and Nichols on behalf of the EIG and that likely led to his writing being very supportive of them, even if they didn't deserve it. He's been critical of Katz since before the sale because he's never had access to him and perhaps his reaction to the lack of access to is write the truth, whether the organization wants to hear it or not.
I think Schenn is can't miss.
ReplyDeleteI think the economy's putting pressure on all the GMs to get some playoff fiat.
I think Lombardi's bosses were the reason he went after Kovalchuk, and that there is still pressure there. Smytty only has a year left. Handzus is aging and UFA.
And I think the stories are similar in NAS, CBJ, & ATL.
And now there's word that Buffalo's new owner has given Regier permission to go for it.
This could go right to the wire, with possibly Richards, Stastny and Hemsky all available for the right price, there's gonna be some brinksmanship till the first deal's made. This could be a 6 way game of stare-down.
Spoiler: By the number of trades we saw earlier than deadline it seems you are correct.
ReplyDeleteFinally something exciting.
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteNot sure AEG even remembers they have a hockey team. If are able to get the only NFL team in LA, via stadium built, that isa license to print money.
Columbus dire economy, losing some fans as a result, I think deperate but Howson cagey enough to downplay it totally
sPoiler:
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
And we know the Caps are worried, the Rangers always want to make a splash...
FPB
ReplyDeleteI think the poor UFA summer comin upis having an effect too. She could be a wheelie-dealie draft.
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteWhat is this Brownlee comment? I seemed to have missed out on that
I'm saddened by the Duke Snider news. I didn't know he was a legendary ballplayer as a kid (my Dad told me about him) but his gentle way of explaining the game and his class came through all the way.
ReplyDeleteI remember reading a book about the 1981 playoffs and Duke forgot to turn his mic off and ripped a profanity when an Expo struck out in an important situation.
RIP, say hi to Woody Fryman.
He was raggin on a poster, can't remember whom but a reg from here IIRC, for using 'magic beans'. Dennis then posted a clarification of magic beans and then there was further whining from Brownlee about ambiguity of language and a lack of precision. Essentially bitching about the use of metaphor in a post.
ReplyDeleteWas quite ironic.
aaah i see.
ReplyDeleteThanks. Was this on ON? which post was it?
You state Quebec speaks better French than in France, which is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteOnly picking up on this because SS isn't here... He never said "better." He said "purer." A vast difference. And actually quite accurate, linguistically speaking.
Anyway. Not much to be said re: Oilers until tomorrow's donkey show.
For the record: I think Toonces & Lombardi's Mexican standoff will fizzle. Vandy, Jones & Smid will move. Return will be picks & one of Blum or Ellis. If Toonces puts on his lucky rocketship underwear, I could see him pulling the ol' Staios Shuffle with a mort like 22 or 16. Pierre McGuire will say something overtly sexual about several grown men & inform us all who's taking Stanley home (based on one trade).
TOJ,
ReplyDeleteWell the State of California is presently insolvent, LA no better, so I think that stadium is a pipe dream for now.
AEG is a business and I'm thinking they are aware of every profit and loss on their books.
If they want an NFL team every Benbuck is gonna help.
LT
ReplyDeleteThere was serious discussion as to who was the best centerfielder in NYC: Mays, DiMaggio or the Duke of Flatbush.
With the passage of time a very clear hierarchy sorted itself out and Duke was a very clear third but to even be in that discussion is pretty flattering. Short right field wall in Ebbets Field also helped the Duke.
Have a ton of DVH and Duke Expo memories
Spoiler
ReplyDeleteCalifornia is BEYOND broke. Not as bad as Illinois but broke nonetheless
Los Angeles also has 12 million people with no NFL team. Lots of them are beyond rich. Whoever builds there will have a hostage marketplace and will fill every box suite they can build
Expect the hockey team is the Edm equivalent of the Aquila productions unit of Rexall sports--not a primary business, not a secondary business, but one of their business units nonetheless
I just think Columbus would be more desperate
LOL - am watching CBJ v NAS and theformercaptainethanmoreau takes yet another stupid penalty in the 3rd period of a tie game.
ReplyDeleteSome things never change.
TB runs a PP with 5 forwards.
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
Is there a lot of space behind the net in MSG or is it just me?
ReplyDeleteIllinois isn't as broke anymore, the gov passed a tax hike and cuts that we all hate over here, but realize is necessary and will balance or surplus the budget in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteTough choices sometimes have to be made. Glad our gov. cared less about his political career or party than he does about the state and found a solution.
Back to hockey.
I'm slowly warming up to the idea of a Hemsky-Schenn deal, even though I'd really miss Hemmer. His trade value is probably higher now than it would be at the draft or next year, and getting Schenn would push Larsson to the top of the draft list.
We get a solid C and D. We'd need more of each, but that
should speed up the rebuild a bit,
The state of CA has a revenue problem because of stupidity and right now pension payments are too high, but CA is the wealthiest place on earth, save NYC. R.I.C.H. Rich
ReplyDeleteRich,
ReplyDeleteIf Illinois is out of their hole in 3 years I'll be shocked and awed.
The only way is if the Fed Gov't gives them a handout.
R.I.C.H. Rich
ReplyDeleteOnly if baby-boomers are successful in continuing to kick the can down the road and leave their debts to their kids. Unlike their own parents did with them.
The emerging economies are battling having inflationary effects and simultaneously, the US is resorting printing the money each month to pay its own deficit. Interest rates will have to rise on the US. I don't think this is likely to go on much longer.
Deano: My understanding of the Bogosian issue in ATL is that there were 2 problems.
ReplyDeleteThe first is that he was facing toughs and paired with Oduya, who is apparently ATL's equivalent of an up-and-coming Jim Vandermeer without the toughness. Wanders far and frequently. Coincidentally, during this time Bogosian quickly fell into the doghouse with fans.
The second problem is related, as it is believed he had a fairly heated dispute with the assistant coach responsible for the defence. Supposedly, the animosity between them escalated to the point where they weren't on speaking terms.
More recently, Bogosian has been paired apart from Oduya and has seen his play bounce back. Whether he still feels comfortable playing in ATL is an unknown.
----------
RE: Hemsky and Schenn.
I'm becoming less concerned about the possibility of Hemsky being traded by the day. Lombardi and Tambellini both have reputations for inertia. Both parties have come out and said they feel no need to move their assets and LA still has another year in their current window before they have to retool. If they flop this year in the playoffs maybe Lombardi calls up Tambellini again in the offseason. There's really no rush to get something done tomorrow.
On Sunday afternoon Tradecentre, BobbyMac says...
ReplyDeleteRichards is the biggest fish in the sea.
No way Dallas is going to trade Richards to LA, a divisional rival.
MacArthur likely staying.
Sounds like Phillips will be traded.
No Canadian team outside of Ontario discussed.
I would treat Bogo as damaged goods. I would not value him as the #3 OV anymore.
ReplyDeleteSmid was #9 OV, just sayin'.
I don't know if I really believe that a Hemsky for Schenn deal would move Larsson up the draft board. I suppose it might, but I don't see any reason to believe it's all that likely to be the case.
ReplyDeleteYes, Schenn is a C, as might be the 2011 1st round pick, but it's still 1 F in and 1 F out.
Who is to say some other C wouldn't eventually shift to the wing, or if EDM drafted RNH or SC they wouldn't end up as a winger?
I just posted this on another site in an argument with Kings fans:
ReplyDeleteIginla-Nieuwendyk has been widely regarded as a win-win trade. I consider the likelihood that Hemmer would resign in LA to be somewhere around 95%, and Schenn is no Iginla. Lets compare:
1st year with Nieuwendyk: missed playoffs
2nd year with Nieuwendyk: Lost 1st round (thanks todd )
3rd year with Nieuwendyk: lost in western conference finals
4th year with Nieuwendyk: WON CUP!!!!
5th year with Nieuwendyk: Inches from cup
Nieuwendyk played 7 years in Dallas, getting 350 points before being traded. Hemsky is the right player at the right time for the Kings. It's not a rental by any stretch of the imagination.
Nieuwendyk was not healthy. He played 442 games in 7 season, or 63 games per season. That's more time missed than Hemsky has averaged.
Nieuwendyk was not a huge scorer. He had 340 points in those 442 games, or .77ppg, a 63 point pace. Hemsky produces CONSIDERABLY more.
Schenn for Hemsky actually looks to favor the Kings a lot more than Nieuwendyk to Dallas did. It's not nearly as ridiculous as some Kings fans think. I don't know if the trade will happen but if it does neither GM should be vilified.
Tradecentre part 2, Dreger says:
ReplyDeleteHemsky getting lots of interest round the league. Nothing imminent or good enough right now.
Richards domino may have to fall first. Or not.
Speeds, agreed...
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers trade Hemsky for Schenn, they could still draft SC/Strome and move Gagner to RW.
Or they could draft Landeskog.
Depends what they like.
The Duke - Remember back in the early 80s watching Dave and Duke do a game with a buddy of mine, with the Hawk at bat.
ReplyDeleteThey were commenting on his physique and how athletic he was. Duke goes on to say " he has such a fantastic body". We were in our early teens and couldn't believe he said it.
Silly memory but one that stuck, enjoyed those telecasts quite a bit (when the games weren't rained out).
He was great. For years he'd say "the Expos need a lefty hitter with hair on his butt for the middle of the order."
ReplyDeleteHe was a beauty.
Oilers could use a few players with hair on their butt.
ReplyDelete