I'm not certain that it benefits a great deal but there is a certain amount of value (I think) in seeing if the results have been achieved or surpassed by individuals.
A quick point: this isn't an outer marker projection or even a hopeful one. The idea for the project is the following: should a player better his projected number, we can agree that said player has been better than expected.
Let's take a look.
- Dustin Penner: Projected-81gp, 35-35-70 (.864). On pace: 82gp, 26-26-52 (.634). Penner is shy of the projection but it's hard to call him a dissapointment. Healthy and leading the club in points, the difference in the projection versus reality probably has a lot to do with injuries to Hemsky and Horcoff along with a dismal powerplay. Quality NHLer.
- Taylor Hall: Projected-74gp, 20-20-40 (.541). On pace: 82gp, 26-25-51 (.622). Ahead of schedule and tracking very well. I think it's really important to note that he's on pace to have a better rookie season than Steven Stamkos. I'm not saying he's a better prospect, but he's a very, very good one.
- Ales Hemsky Projected-60gp, 18-48-66 (1.1). On pace: 65gp, 18-40-58 (.892). Not far off the pace, the PP appears to be the culprit here. #83 remains the straw that stirs the offensive drink but he has company. Hopefully he has a healthy 2nd half and it remains completely possible for Hemsky to exceed a point per game.
- Sam Gagner Projected-80gp, 16-37-53 (.663). On pace: 82gp, 18-30-48 (.585). Just off the mark so far, the young man was on target until the injuries arrived. He's 5 points off the pace and has a good chance to deliver his first 50-point season at age 21. I remain convinced he belongs to the Damphousse/Gilmour family.
- Jordan Eberle Projected-72gp, 12-17-29 (.403). On pace: 70gp, 17-26-43 (.614). Way ahead of the projection, I probably underestimated reasonable. Still, credit where due this young man is the real deal and in many ways has had the most impressive season among Oiler forwards.
- Magnus Pääjärvi Projected-66gp, 12-18-30 (.455). On pace: 80gp, 10-22-32 (.400). Off the pace but enjoying a nice run currently. Although he trails the other two famous rookies in performance this season, you can see this guy is going to have an important role soon. Impressive player.
- Shawn Horcoff Projected-68gp, 13-29-42 (.618). On pace: 61gp, 15-23-38 (.623). A solid match in both performance and health, Horcoff is such an important part of the team. It's obvious Shawn Horcoff is a quality player.
- Andrew Cogliano Projected-82gp, 10-20-30 (.366). On pace: 82gp, 11-18-29 (.354). Another good match, Cogliano doesn't take any nights off and had a nice run there before tailing off as the All-star break approached. Renney sees something in him, and I think Cogliano has played quite well this season.
- Ryan Jones Projected-69gp, 10-12-22 (.319). On pace: 82gp, 18-6-24 (.293). This is a solid match, Jones is scoring more than projected but his point total is in line with expectations. I keep wondering if he's going to be a Dave Hunter/Dave Lumley or a Don Ashby/Ray Cote.
- Linus Omark Projected-25gp, 5-5-10 (.400). On pace: 53gp, 7-15-22 (.415). Another good match, Omark has all kinds of talents we could only know once we saw him play the game. A much wider range of skills than I'd ever given him credit for, he's still going to have to work hard to stay ahead of all these younger wingers.
- Gilbert Brule Projected-75gp, 18-22-40 (.533). On pace: 67gp, 11-3-14 (.209). You have to feel for this guy. He was coming off a good year and scored the first goal of the season. Now? No one even asks when he's coming back. Incredible.
- Liam Reddox Projected-None. On pace: 45gp, 0-18-18 (.400). I didn't project him to play this season. I feel shame. What a wonderful player, I hope they don't send him down this week but know they will.
- Zack Stortini Projected-66gp, 4-7-11 (.167). On pace: 65gp, 0-8-8 (.123). Man he's had a bad time of it. HS on opening night, the coach keeps saying things like "Zack gives it a darn good try" like he's some kind of mascot pretending he's a player and his most recent fight drew an alarming reaction from the fanbase. You know, he's not close to being the worst hockey player on this team, right? Right?
- JF Jacques Projected-25gp, 1-1-2 (.080). On pace: 60gp, 6-0-6 (.100). Man. Man o man o man. Boy. Whew. Lordy. Holy crap. Man.
- Colin Fraser Projected-75gp, 8-14-22 (.293). On pace: 82gp, 3-1-4 (.049). I thought he'd be better, but then again I'm sure he did too. Fraser has half a season to show a pulse; if he doesn't, I suspect he'll be playing for OKC next season. A free agent MIA.
- Ryan O'Marra Projected-24gp, 1-3-4 (.167). On pace: 42gp, 4-9-13 (.310). He plays better in the NHL than he does in the minors. I think the Oilers love him.
- Steve MacIntyre Projected-36gp, 0-2-2 (.056). On pace: 47gp, 0-3-3 (.064). A nice match.
Vets underperforming has opened the door for rookies to beat expectations. Might be why we are where we are in the standings too.
ReplyDeleteActually, come to think of it, where we are in the standings has more to do with NK not being able to stop a beach ball
ReplyDeleteNot to be picky LT, but Omarra wasnt really that good in the Nhl. he gave up a ton of chances in his own end and created very little. He still is very young for a checking forward, but soon will/should have big competition from Lander and even fraser for that 4th line center spot.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't stop laughing after reading the "Man. Man o man o man. Boy. Whew. Lordy. Holy crap. Man."
ReplyDelete@ Sam
ReplyDeleteThat's the easy way out.
So is blaming a horrible PP LT.
The Oilers are .80 in 5V5F/A 26th in the league.
Their leading scorer is underperfoming LT's projections by a very wide margin. Penner is on pace for 52 points and this ain't the halfway mark.
A little context please. Dustin Penner would be 5th in scoring rate on the freaking TML's. How bad is that?
LT set the bar low enough that even a chimp with a loaded handgun should be able to shoot those lights out.
"On pace for 38 points"...good grief...185 players scored 38 points or more last season.
I see we're also still pimping Gagner as the next Damphousse/Gilmoour too.
In his 3rd NHL season at age 21, Damphousse scored 26G 42A 68P. I believe the difference between 48P and 68P is some where in the order of
42 percent.
In his 2nd NHL season at the age of 21, Gilmour scored 21G 35A 57P. I believe the difference between 48P and 57P is 19 percent.
Also worth noting that in Damphousse's 4th NHL, 22 year old season he scored 33G 61A 94P.
And Gilmour, in his 4th NHL season scored 33G 61A 94P.
Anyone who thinks Gagner is from that "tree" is deluded.
A more apt comparison is Kyle Wellwood.
Yes, Hall and Eberle are having nice seasons and Magnus looks like he might have the skills to fulfill a non-goal scoring role very well but the rest of the bunch is pretty sad.
Stortini entertains me(for all the wrong reasons), but JF Jacques must have pics of Lowe/Tambellini/Katz propping up a Tunisian gay bar.
ReplyDeleteI just did Gagner's top 25 entry and he's still got a very good chance to hit the Bobby Clarke number and I still like him on the Bobby Clarke tree.
ReplyDeleteIn his 3rd NHL season at age 21, Damphousse scored 26G 42A 68P. I believe the difference between 48P and 68P is some where in the order of
ReplyDelete42 percent.
Care to compare for two eras with different scoring rates, or are we going to cherry pick and forget about putting things into a reasonable context? Or would that resemble "objectivity" too much for your liking?
As for the Kyle Wellwood comparison - Wellwood didn't even play a full NHL season until age 22. Gagner is in his fourth NHL season at age 21. His 18-year old season, with 49 points, is better than any season Wellwood has EVER produced. So the only thing delusional is that comparison.
Damb nice list Lowetide. I questioned you not showing Reddox the proper love at the beggining of the season. I am glad he's been given a chance to prove you wrong. Him and Cogs might make an excellent shut down pair down the line. Besides him and a couple others your expectations are bang on, and this list is about meeting expectations, not a loaded chimp shooting the piss out of them.
ReplyDeleteAs for centers the next couple years, I think Horcoff and Cogliano make up a solid 2 way tandem for the bottom 6. While Talor and Gagner play the pivot on the top two lines. Lander, Mcdonald, Omarra playing fill in. Center ice would be small and young, but, they are all skilled, smart and fast.
Coach: Bobby Clarke tree? What now?
ReplyDeleteDSF,
ReplyDeletePoint is that LT's predictions were accurate for the most part.
38 points takes into account time off for injury - "a little context please"
Damphousse and Gilmour played at a time when guys scored a lot more than they do now. Again, a litte context.
Anyone that did not notice that this is a rebuild, is a little deluded. This team is doing exactly what it should be doing.
@LT:
ReplyDeleteI normalized every forward in NHL history for era effects and found some comparables - Kirk Muller, Dan Quinn, Jeremy Roenick, Bobby Carpenter, Bobby Clarke, Dave Keon, Brian Bellows, Rod Brind'Amour, Vincent Damphousse, Peter Zezel, and Doug Gilmour. Of those comps, Gagner has the best chance of matching Clarke's normalized 21-year-old season.
He needs 26 points in his last 33 games to match Clarke's season and stay on pace.
Hmmm. Well, I'd say he's still from the Damphousse/Gilmour tree but a little farther up the chain based on your numbers.
ReplyDeleteBobby Clarke--as a player--was just about as far away from Sam Gagner as you could get.
Only projection I had much of an issue was the Hall one. I figured you were way too conservative on that one.
ReplyDeleteThe final 30 or games of Taylor's innagural season should be better then the first 50 (Which were quite good)
How far off was Brownlee's picks. ;)
Coach you realize there are more to player comparisons then raw point totals right?
ReplyDeleteI watch Gagner play hockey and Clarke is the last player I think of.
He'd break samwise in half. But if Gags wants to Kharlamov Burrows I'll change my opinion.
With some healthy bodies returning to the line-up it's going to be very intersting who gets sent out as you mentioned LT.
ReplyDeleteOKC has some nice chemistry going as of late and it would hurt to break it all up just for a Reddox/JFJ "loan". Since they were put together, the prospect line of Cornet-Kytnar-Hartikainen has been outstanding, and I'd hate to see that broken up. Kytnar doubled his season points total in January. Cornet tripled his.
No doubt Reddox would improve the farm team if he's sent down, but does a JFJ even help the Barons? I think not.
While I don't think BC and Samwise have such a lot in common, Sammy boy doesn't seem to let himself go. He dropped the gloves a few times IIRC. (In the range for Macyntire LOL)
ReplyDeleteFucking Colin Fraser with 3 points in 43 games. That's sandwiched between Colton Orr and Brad Staubitz on the points per game list and basically DFL among all NHL forwards who play (nearly) every night. At least those guys are noted pugilists whereas Fraser gets kabonged regularly by middleweights.
ReplyDeleteAre the Oilers the only team in the league that feels the need to dress a guy like this every night?
Knightown: Once the Habs dressed Garth Murray. He was terrible in the AHL, wasn't a fighter or a PK'er and was terrible in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteIt was like a punishment for players.
''Oh you've decided to take a shift off? We'll i'l play you with GARTH! (Or play him at your place)''
Dereck, I saw your work over at C&B. It's always terrific but the Gagner stuff seems pretty wacky lately. Comparisons to Bobby Clarke? Co #1 prospect ranking with Taylor Hall?
ReplyDeleteHall's 3 seasons younger, has more points, more goals, more shots, faces tougher competition with lower level players (BTN), double the hits, double the blocks, double the missed shots, Gagner is terrible on faceoffs, Hall has more elite pedigree, more speed and so on.
For the record, are you saying that you feel it's a flip of the coin to see who the better player will be in 5 years?
DSF - Are you saying LT is the cause of the team's woes? Is he the puppetmaster?
ReplyDeleteLT - next year I want at least two 50 goal scorers and I want JFJ to become a power forward!
Bookie: So you want the Oilers to make a brain implant surgery... interesting.
ReplyDeleteI think Gagner might have the pedigree edge what with his dad and everything.
ReplyDeleteBut Taylor's dad was a baller and we need more players with that footbaaaw mentality.
SB: I've always said we should use our first pick on a good punter.
ReplyDeleteThe Penner numbers are a bit of a concern. I wonder how much of it is the fact he is shoring up every ailing line and playing the toughs all the time. Plus I see how he went from 12.4% to 15.8% SH% last year and has moved back a full % this year.
ReplyDeleteHaving said all this, he is not the problem and definitely a guy who needs to be convinced to stay on with this team. A non-replaceable player.
Hesketh lost his scholarship to Wisconsin. I'll have more on the story in a day or so at BU.
ReplyDeletehttp://noalibisnoregrets.blogspot.com/2011/01/hesketh-no-longer-committed-to.html
DG: That guy is already a disaster.
ReplyDeleteI've always liked Gagner and will continue to cheer for him to succeed, but unless something big snaps into place in his game, I just don't see these comparables. I remember Damphousse having a plus shot while Gagner's shot is at best average. Sam has good compete level, but I don't see him ever being as feisty, defensively-sound, or even skilled as Killer. And as others mentioned, Clarke and Gagner are totally different animals.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if Gagner's is more like a Bryan Smolinski - one of those guys that's around forever, putting up 50 or so points every year playing 2nd/3rd line C and filling in on top line when injuries kick in. I know he's still young and I hope (if he sticks with the team) I'm wrong. (Not that a Smolinski-like career would be that bad even; only disappointing given the expectations). Just seems that smaller guys who excel in the NHL always have some other aspect(s) of their game that is elite (crazy fast, crazy shot, crazy skills, defensive demon). Gagner hasn't shown any of those so far, and other than getting better defensively, I doubt he'll significantly improve at any of the other skills as he gets older. I dare say he's had enough at-bats that we know the kind of game he brings to the table.
Will his hockey sense + vision + compete be enough to make up for his other "shortcomings" and let him become a true PVP outscorer? I'll continue to hope but I'm having my doubts. I think more reasonable expectations for him would be as a 2nd line guy who can outscore middling competition for 50-60 pts a year. Again, nothing wrong with that, but I can see the fanbase turning on him for not being a true "1st line centre" à la Horcoff. On the flip side, keeping this view of him makes me more open to trading him now, especially if we can draft/trade/sign a top 2 C that better fits our needs than Samwise.
That guy is already a disaster.
ReplyDeleteCameron Abney loves him. Because he's no longer the butt end of the joke "Who's the worst possible player the Oilers could have picked in the 3rd round of the 09 entry draft."
Ouch.
Dg: Honestly he might be candidate for
ReplyDelete''Who was the worst pick the Oilers could do in the entire decade''.
0 Points and -12 in the USHL is absolutely ATROCIOUS.
Combined with shitty charatcher... wow.
To follow Coaches point, if Sam has followed Clarke's point production it gives us some idea where he is headed.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't mean Samwise is Clarke or plays anything like him, just his point production may match Bobby's going forward.
Because he's no longer the butt end of the joke "Who's the worst possible player the Oilers could have picked in the 3rd round of the 09 entry draft."
ReplyDeleteYes he is.
Smolinski is not a good comp; he put up 51 points as a 22 year old rookie in a higher scoring era. Gagner came close to that as an 18 year old, and also had a better pedigree with respect to his draft class (Smolinski drafted 21st, Gagner 6th).
ReplyDeleteThe thing with Gagner -- and the reason you don't give up on him -- is that, as per Coach's analysis, he has improved steadily with each passing season, and in doing so has brushed shoulders with young men from other eras who have gone on to enjoy highly successful NHL careers.
The striking thing about Coach's analysis is this is largely the norm, and not the exception.
Gagner does not have the same pizzaz in his game as Hall or even Eberle. So what? He is a smart, smart player who has exhibited a keen desire to get faster, better, and stronger. And the stats bear that out!
My opinion is that this Gagner debate is ridiculous, and that there are some very smart people around here who will look not-so-smart in the not-too-distant future. There are many problems with this team; Gagner is not even close to being one of them.
Smolinski is not a good comp; he put up 51 points as a 22 year old rookie in a higher scoring era. Gagner came close to that as an 18 year old, and also had a better pedigree with respect to his draft class (Smolinski drafted 21st, Gagner 6th).
ReplyDeleteThe thing with Gagner -- and the reason you don't give up on him -- is that, as per Coach's analysis, he has improved steadily with each passing season, and in doing so has brushed shoulders with young men from other eras who have gone on to enjoy highly successful NHL careers.
The striking thing about Coach's analysis is this is largely the norm, and not the exception.
Gagner does not have the same pizzaz in his game as Hall or even Eberle. So what? He is a smart, smart player who has exhibited a keen desire to get faster, better, and stronger. And the stats bear that out!
My opinion is that this Gagner debate is ridiculous, and that there are some very smart people around here who will look not-so-smart in the not-too-distant future. There are many problems with this team; Gagner is not even close to being one of them.
Um, where are those projected GPs coming from? Reddox has played 12 games of the first 49, but you have him finishing the season with 45 games? By my math, he's on pace to finish with 20.
ReplyDelete@ Bling:
ReplyDeleteYou're Sam Gagner's agent, right?
Lowetide: I see your blog getting more and more popular, and as a result it follows that some of the NHL fraternity are going to try to sneak in here and push their agendas.
Fortunately most of them are morons, and won't be able to stand up to the rigorous standards you have set, lol.
@coachpb9617:
ReplyDeletehmm...Bobby Clarke, one of the greatest captains in NHL history, a combination of Mike Peca's defense and Steve Yzerman's offence. A player who would sooner die than lose a hockey game. Two time SC captain, plus anchor of the only consistently excellent line in the super series of 1972.
Sam Gagner, a slow, undersized player brought into the NHL too soon by incompetant management, now 2-3 seasons removed from a highly promising rookie season. Vanilla both on defence and offence.
I understand. A few too many drinks and I can think all kinds of crazy shit too.
Important Service Announcement To All Readers of Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteRe: DSF's comments
In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into a desired emotional response.
-source Wikipedia
Don't feed the troll.
Now back to your regular scheduled programming.
Matt,
ReplyDeleteThe last few times DSF has been on here (including this thread) he was strong in his opinions, but not inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic. I actually find it helpful to elicit some emotional responses, otherwise things get pretty dull and some posters here live off emotionally charged states.
Finally, if we exclude DSF from all conversation it only encourages ever more extreme content and marginalises his quality. I'm no fan of DSF, but at least he brings an alternative point of view to the group. And based on what he has been putting up lately, that is helpful.
You would thinking watching Gagner get muscled off the puck,fall down,avoid getting hit only to "hurt himself", lose face off after face of and play poor defensively that you may get off comparing him to a guys like Damphousse and Gilmour?
ReplyDeleteLowetide: Come for the Disagreements. Stay for the Company.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous: Don't forget Bobby Clarke.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Bobby Clarke, once my uncle went to see the Flin Flon Bombers(greatest name of a hockey team in human history imo) specifically to see Bobby Clarke, but that night Reggie Leach was far and away the superstar on the ice.
ReplyDeleteWhich kind of tempers the perception of drafting some of these junior hotshots.
McKenzie is saying that Chris Phillips would likely land a 2nd round pick at the deadline. Does that mean we can expect Vandermeer to get us a 3/4?
ReplyDeleteMcKenzie is saying that Chris Phillips would likely land a 2nd round pick at the deadline. Does that mean we can expect Vandermeer to get us a 3/4?
ReplyDeleteI'd say fourth at best. Regardless of actual levels of play, Phillips' reputation (first overall pick! alternate captain! Hall of Famer's nephew!) blows Vandermeer's (can't skate anymore! albatross contract!) out of the water.
In related news, good sweet Christ was 1996 a lousy draft.
Anonymous: No. I believe people can buy into the idea that the Doug Gilmour you hold in your mind's eye may not have been as tough on the puck as a kid as he was in 1988 or 1993.
ReplyDeleteChris Phillips a 2nd pick? God that guy is atrocious, and god teams are idiotic.
ReplyDeleteWaive JFJ and Stortini, then keep Omark and Reddox in the big show. If they try to send Reddox down, someone will grab him as the kid has shown he deserves to be in the NHL. JFJ or Storts on the other hand...
ReplyDeleteThe failure of this team to find reliable 4th liners is comical.
ReplyDeleteThere’s a couple of interesting things in today’s paper:
ReplyDeleteMissing from Monday’s session were Taylor Hall, who is returning to Edmonton from the all-star game in Raleigh, N.C., and Gilbert Brule, who is out with the flu.
The Flu? How long does the flu last? The guy hasn’t played in 10 games. I call bullshit.
"We can't really look at wins and losses, we have to look at the way games have gone," Horcoff said. "The last four or five games we've outchanced every team.
Shawn Horcoff, overpaid yes, but he remains a Dennis fan.
Little known fact. When he was out Horcoff actually did the SC counting for Dennis when Mr. King was out on the lash, fucking and fighting and all that good stuff.
ReplyDeleteSomebody check on Bruce: Stortini is on waivers.
ReplyDeleteZorg waived.
ReplyDeleteShould have shaved those sideburns.
Keep all sharp objects away from Bruce.
Hope someone picks him up and he escapes the Oiler organization.
He'll clear. Too bad.
ReplyDeleteI am currently watching the horizon for the flash of anger from Bruce. I figure it should show up even during the day.
ReplyDeleteJustifiable anger, imo.
I also do not want to see Reddox sent down, it is going to be a kick in the nuts when he is scooped off of waivers. (He does have to clear waivers to move to OKC?) I would get rid of JFJ and Fraser for no return to keep a kid like Reddox who is willing to work his nuts off to keep getting better every year. We need more of this kind of heart on the team and it shouldn't be looked over. Alas I feel ST will shit the bed here and I will be shaking my head as I watch Reddox shut down our PP with a different jersey on.
ReplyDeleteI see we're also still pimping Gagner as the next Damphousse/Gilmoour too.
ReplyDeleteIn his 3rd NHL season at age 21, Damphousse scored 26G 42A 68P. I believe the difference between 48P and 68P is some where in the order of
42 percent.
It took me a while to figure out how you came up with those numbers. 48 is 70.6% of 68, which is what baffled me.
Fun Fact: NHL G/G is currently at about 77% of what it was in 1989-90. While I haven't looked, Western Conference scoring has been lower than the East in recent years (and Campbell Conference scoring was generally higher than the Wales Conference).
Gagner might not be Damphousse but I don't know that these numbers really make your case.
WOW. They waive Stortini over one of the worst statistical players in NHL history...absolutely brutal.
ReplyDeleteWhy do no members of the media call the Oilers out on Jacques?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI had questioned Renney's ability to make decisions in regards to personnel in Edmonton in one of your previous threads LT.
ReplyDeleteI now accept that he might have more say in who he gets on his 23-man roster than I initially believed.
He really didn't like Stortini at all.
Any capologists out there? Was Stortini on a one-way? That'll have a pretty big say in whether he gets claimed or not.
While MC showed the math I didn't need the math to realize DSF had no context for his stats.
ReplyDeleteNot that I much of an issue with his posts nor am I much of a fan of Sam these days.
Zorg should be gone. That Dallas game was embarrassing but I don't think anyone could explain the JFJ love math or not.
I'm sort of glad this happened - it will enhance our future ability to look back on this period as "the J-F Jacques era".
ReplyDelete(Though I guess I have no trouble thinking of the mid-nineties as "the Ilya Byakin era", even though he only played 44 games with us.)
It's a tradedy, not it's a comedy.
ReplyDeleteStortini is on a one way I believe but he makes peanuts so his cap hit won't be an issue if an NHL team wants him on their roster. (They probably won't)
ReplyDeleteI doubt Stortini makes it back under Renney if we don't lose him to waivers. I mean, he wasn't getting playing time no matter how bad the injuries got, so in a healthy lineup, he won't play.
ReplyDeleteIt will be cool to see how well or how badly Zach plays in the AHL. Might be a good place for him to see minutes and improve his game. Maybe he finds the range and has a career as 3rd-line-4th-line tweener.
From Zorg's perspective it is a tragedy (I'm thinking Medea) but from JFJ's perspective (or the fan base's) it is a comedy (The Acharnians or The Clouds).
ReplyDeleteWhat, you guys don't want to see more MacIntyre?
ReplyDeleteStortini is definitely not the guy I would send out. Oh well.
The only way Hemsky will meet those expectations is if he gets traded at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteMacintyre (and schremp for that matter) have actually been claimed on waivers. Can't say Zorg will get to join that group.
ReplyDeleteZorg: 4A in 32 gm -6.2 Rel Corsi
ReplyDeleteJFJ: 3G in 27 gm -8.9 Rel Corsi
Is Stortini really much better than JFJ?
Zorg has way more PIM than JFJ as JFJ apparently can't/ won't fight, but its not like Zorg is scaring anyone. When he says "lets dance", he apparently means it.
Stortini's penalties drawn number might interest you, Ducey. I had it up the other day and was surprised.
ReplyDeleteJW, got a link?
ReplyDeleteDucey:
ReplyDeletePenalties Drawn.
Admittedly, the Barch stuff could be driving it up; I haven't checked to see how much impact that had.
Ha! Bruce mentions the same thing in his article over at Cult of Hockey.
ReplyDeleteJW: What's the methodology behind the drawn/taken stats?
ReplyDeleteStorts!! Oh man, that's a shame. Guy always had a smile on his face...
ReplyDeleteWas bound to happen with Stortini. Decent 4th liner, at least on a team this bad, but if the players were honest I suspect they would say that his fights are de-motivational. He's got huge balls to fight the monsters he does, but watching your teammate simply try not to get hit is unlikely to excite the bench or intimmidate the opposition. Whether or not those things can happen after a fight is up for debate, but I think it's clear that most NHL players and managers believe that they can, and that Stortini's efforts do not have the desired effect. He's been openly mocked by opponents on a number of occasions, and I would think that might eventually erode some of the teams support for him in that role. I really respect Stortini but I can't say I disagree with the decision. Sure, Mac and JFJ are more useless (or perhaps equally useless in different ways), but it's not likely to make a huge difference either way.
ReplyDeleteI'd be curious to see how much the Barch incident increased Storts penalties drawn as well...I certainly don't recall him drawing a lot of penalties otherwise.
Will Zach crack the top 6 in OKC?
ReplyDeleteI'm really not sure.
Giroux, Moran, McDonald, Hartikainen, Ondrus, O'Marra are a decent set of AHL'ers, but not great. And I don't know if Stortini is better than any of them.
So, it's not such a big deal to waive Zach.
I hope this lead to trying things like waiving Fraser and Jacques to reward Hartikainen, Giroux, etc. a cup of coffee. It would be nice if we could keep Giroux in OKC next year, and rewarding him with time, and giving him the possibility of more time next year, in the event of injury, as a tweeener is an asset to the club.
Giroux had cups of tea with the Capitals as well. He left for the pay day (as well as perhaps a shot of playing on a crappy NHL team full of holes).
ReplyDeleteHis reward for good play in the AHL is a $500,000 contract.
I do fully agree with your idea of rewarding players like him him though. As opposed to keeping and playing lugs like JFJ in the NHL. It must eat at Giroux knowing that JFJ has skated in more games on NHL ice this season than he's seen in 2 years.
From The Sun on Stortini being waived:
ReplyDeleteWe have too many players for too few spots,” said Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini. “It’s competitive inside, and that’s what we’ve been trying to re-establish within the organization - competition for jobs.
“The players that have been brought up have contributed and we need to look at some people in different ways, different types of lineups that Tom (Renney) wants to see. It’s a hard part of the game, but that’s the reality of it. There are only so many spots.”
Well, if the choice was between Reddox and Stortini, I'm okay with this. Or maybe they thought (from the inquiries they get from other teams) that JFJ wouldn't make it through and Storts would.
ReplyDeleteThe Brule situation will also be interesting going forward.
ReplyDeleteWill he:
1. Recover his game
2. Get waived and play in the AHL
3. Get waived and picked up by, say, the Isles.
The top 9 is pretty filled with Horpensky, Gagliano, and H.O.P.E.
Is Brule tradeable?
Yes, I'm upset.
ReplyDelete@JW/dubya: The Barch incident was just one of the eleven powerplays drawn by Stortini this season.
You may not have noticed them, but I sure have; in my game reports over at Cult of Hockey, I have frequently written some variaiton of "#46 Zack Stortini: Drew yet another penalty when ..."
It's actually a stat that I follow pretty closely, not just Zorg but everybody. Although Hall has zoomed away from the pack with 20 penalties drawn, Storts is/was still #2 on the squad in actual # of penalties drawn, despite his reduced minutes AND games played. On a per 60 basis, check this out, league-wide:
Penalties Drawn/60
NHL forwards min 20 GP, 5:00 TOI/G
===========================
1. Zack Stortini 3.0
2. Patrick Kaleta 2.6
3. Jordin Tootoo 2.2
... and the rest
Similarly, his penalty differential per 60 of +3.0/-14=+1.6, is tied for the best in the league (Tom Wandell +2.0/-0.4=+1.6) First. In. The. NHL.
Trouble is, I'm pretty sure the Oilers went 0 for 11 on those 11 powerplays, and I know they gave up 2 if not 3 goals on the 5 powerplays where Zack himself was in the box, so all that positive penalty differential has turned negative on the scoreboard. If you want to blame THAT on the guy who's working his ass off and keeping his composure and getting you a manpower advantage many more times than not, well, you're delusional.
The powerplay is broken? I know! Let's get rid of a guy who keeps causing the goldurn things. That'll fix 'er!
ffs
Eberle fails Renney Test - per Terry Jones
ReplyDeleteIs Brule tradeable?
ReplyDeleteNo
Last summer he was.
A day late, several mill short
Ladies and gents, your Edmonton Oilers.
Looks like a masterful job of assessment and evaluation leading to the correct decision!
ReplyDeleteGood thing we have experts running the show¡
I may grudgingly need to give Tambellini credit for making the right move here. If the coach ain't gonna play the guy, then reasonably that is the guy you send down. JFJ gets time, SMac is considered indispensible in his pugilistic(?) role, therefore Stortini is odd man out.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, this is just another stike against Renney and needs to be added to the file for whether we think he should keep his job next season (because we know the Oilers listen to us - look at the great 3rd line checker/PK'r they got!).
@JW/dubya: The Barch incident was just one of the eleven powerplays drawn by Stortini this season.
ReplyDeleteYou may not have noticed them, but I sure have; in my game reports over at Cult of Hockey, I have frequently written some variaiton of "#46 Zack Stortini: Drew yet another penalty when ..."
OK, but in the last three years Storts went 1.3/0.8, 1.6/1.3, and 1.9/1.8 (penalties taken/drawn per 60). Hardly a proven track record of drawing penalties, though maybe it would continue.
Anyway, I respect Stortini for his playing ability (relative to the other options anyway) and courage, but as long as he's being mocked by the other team I don't think he's right for the role he was asked to play here. I've never played hockey at a really high level, but have played my whole life. I do think fighting can affect momentum, and I do think Stortini's fighting style was counter productive (at least when the guys he was fighting were smaller than him, I don't think anyone begrudges him for protecting himself against the big boys).
Beyond the possible intimidation factor, I liken it to playing with a guy who beaks like a tough guy but won't back it up. I've played with a lot of guys who talk tough but never step up, and after a while you can't help but hope someone will knock them on their ass to shut them up. I don't think the players and mangagement would feel much different than fans when watching Stortini fight...you can respect the difficulty of his job all you want, but eventually you want a guy in that role to try and kick the other guys ass rather than holding on for dear life.
You may not have noticed them, but I sure have; in my game reports over at Cult of Hockey, I have frequently written some variaiton of "#46 Zack Stortini: Drew yet another penalty when ..."
ReplyDeleteI'd say the issue is that you spent a lot of time typing words about a bit player on a last place hockey team.
I know you old guys are prone to tangents but time to refocus your energies.
and that's more of a smarmy joke then a real insult. So don't get too mad.
ReplyDeleteIt's not a huge reach to say that Zorg TODAY is a better NHL'r than JFJ. But in either case you're scraping the bottom of the barrel - why not see if the guy who can actually skate and has proven himself effective at the AHL level can put it together given (most of) a full season in the show. If he fails, so what cut him loose at the end of the year - so long as you don't lose the ginger on waivers to do it, really what's the downside this season?
ReplyDeletewhy not see if the guy who can actually skate and has proven himself effective at the AHL level can put it together given (most of) a full season in the show.
ReplyDeleteAgreed - we shouldn't give up on JFJ until he's had a solid 100 NHL games played. He should probably get some time on the top line, too, just to be really sure.
Until those things have happened, I'm fully behind him staying on the roster.
Oilers - Team Today on Hemsky...
ReplyDelete"I got a puck in the neck in the Vancouver game (Jan. 7), then in San Jose (Jan. 13) I got hit in my nose, kind of in my face, and I felt it pretty good. The next morning I didn't feel really good but the next day I felt okay to play, and I played two games.
"I just wasn't into it, I didn't feel that good. The next day I came again, I told them I've got some issues and stuff like that, but I had a cold too so I was thinking it was the cold," Hemsky continued. "The next game against Minnesota (Jan. 18) I figured it's probably the headaches, I didn't feel good, so they just pulled me out and we treated it like a concussion."
According to head coach Tom Renney, the lengthy ordeal will likely come to an end tomorrow.
"I think Ales is right there to play," the coach said. "He had a good skate again today, he did really well on the test, so I think we're going to play him."
One thing to consider when comparing Gagner's seasons to those of Damphousse and Gilmour is that they seem to have had a bit more depth on their teams, and exploded once they passed guys on the depth charts.
ReplyDeleteGagner has been getting fed primo icetime since day one, and hasn't been able to grasp the top line role despite having a few cracks at it. We'll see what happens going forward, but he doesn't really seem to have too any dominant shifts that indicate he is capable of breaking out into a dominant 80-90 point player.
I feel bad for Stortini as a person. He gives it his best. I could care less about losing Stortini the hockey player. Forwards 11 and 12 on a hockey team are the least important positions on a team. Even the best teams are only ten deep in good forwards, and it doesn't even really matter who fill the last couple of spots.
Penalties drawn are fine and dandy but they don't mean much when your power play blows.
ReplyDeleteLike which team I'm thinking of at this moment...
Mr D: well, to be fair, I liked 10 long before he liked me;)
ReplyDeletePat: I know we both love music and I have this saying as to how you know if something's a good rock song: it makes you either want to fuck, fight or drink and the special ones make you want to do all three;)
So, I like your description of me;) but the fighting thing's lost since passed. Right now I am as Durant said about Bosh: a fake tough guy:)
As for today's move, 33 is the first guy that should have been out the door, then 22 and finaly 46. One of those guys is gone now and another one might be gone if 67 gets back - though that could as easily be 16 out the door as Renney's comments today indicated he'll probably keep 13 at the pivot so that plus perhaps another go at pivot by 4 means less of a reason to keep around 16 - and despite believing in what Bruce and JW are preaching about 46 drawing penalties i'm still not here to post up a big 46 defense.
I just think, though, that it hits me the wrong way for Renney to basically say "46 has a huge heart and is a great guy but can't skate worth a fuck; or at least not well enough to stay in the league" yet 33 keeps drawing a stub.
Then again I've always had a problem with authority figures;) and in that respect MacT was like that literature teacher that I really liked:)
Seriously, though, I wouldn't risk farming 85 in order to save 46's spot but 33's a potential disaster when he plays and no one wants to fight him anyway so what happened here today doesn't make all the sense that the brass says it does.
Note: 46 seemed like a good soul and I hope he catches on somewhere else.
Icing a complete team means caring which guys fill roles 1-12 and not simply your top 6 or 9. Stortini filled his role well on the bottom of the roster, but was fighting confidence issues(imo, first the coach's, then after sitting undeservedly, his own) for most of this season. I don't think he is a bad hockey player even on a good team, but Renney didn't want him, so he needs to move on.
ReplyDeleteProbably as has been suggested elsewhere, if he had been re-branded as a pest he would've been getting the love he deserved. As it is, we are getting my favorite player back soon at his expense. Good, but too bad too.
Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteDoes this mean Eberle isn't all that truthful when he's hurt? Or did the appendectomy take more out of him then it did Matt Cassel?
Also, I don't think 67's tradeable but I would waive him and hope someone would pick up half the freight on the recall.
ReplyDeleteThere's no place for him on this team going forward because he can't outscore the kids and he can't check or play D or kill penalties.
Just hope you only have to eat half his pact and just move on.
@Steve Smith re:
ReplyDelete"Agreed - we shouldn't give up on JFJ until he's had a solid 100 NHL games played. He should probably get some time on the top line, too, just to be really sure.
Until those things have happened, I'm fully behind him staying on the roster."
Everyone's a comedian - Is JFJ the second coming of Scotty Upshall, duhh no. But since neither he nor Storts seems to have any impact on a game given their 4 mins. of ice time, what difference does it make?
If neither is presently helping you win, keep the big fella who can skate for another 30 games and if there isn't anything else (which is most likely) then flush him. I have nothing against Huggy Bear - he seems to have a great attitude, but I do think it's fair to say JFJ's ceiling (based on his toolbox) is higher than Storts, and if by some miracle he improves yippee. Provided it doesn't cost you a real someone who does help (like the Ginger), does it really matter which ineffective player you cut loose first?
re: Brule - full props to all (including JW) who recommended selling high on Brule. A look at the current roster + prospects + other teams castoffs = no room for him on this roster. And if you can't crack the Oilers' top 9 this year...
ReplyDeleteWell, Tyler math is not my strong suit, nor is it yours if truth be known.
ReplyDeleteNo matter how you want to slice the roast, Gagner is from the Wellwood tree not the Gilmour/Damphousse tree.
Trust me on this one...I saw them ALL good.
Wayne Simmonds playing with the kids/scrubs for the Kings tonight.
ReplyDeleteI would love to lift him out of LA.
DSF: I saw Wayne Gretzky good.
ReplyDeleteTrust me on this one...
ReplyDeleteWell why didn't you just say so in the first place?
Never trust anyone who says 'Trust me."
ReplyDeleteSo don't trust me.
ReplyDeleteSam Wellwood is not a hardwood.
Pure aspen pulp.
And FPV now we're seeing Gretzky in Gagner?
Alrighty, then.
Dsf:
ReplyDeleteRight. I'm puzzled at how you concluded that.
@Smarmy Boss: Smarmy joke taken. I laughed.
ReplyDeleteTrouble is, I spend a lot of time writing words about ALL the players on a last-place hockey team. Every player, every game. It's my job.
It's hard enough to find positive things to say about many of these bums.