This is Jason Bonsignore. He is STILL a young man, born the same year as Fernando Pisani. Bonsignore hasn't played at a high level since finishing up the 02-03 season in the AHL. Pisani was finishing up his rookie year in the NHL in 02-03. Prospects stubbornly refuse to develop in a straight line.
Remember Jesse Niinimaki? The guy was a dog after the Oilers selected him in the middle of 2002's first round. He had a wrist injury early on and didn't do much to help his cause during a quick North American tour in 04-05.
Fast forward to this season and the same Niinimaki is in the SM-Liiga's top 5 scorers (33gp, 11-20-31). Oiler fans know what this means: a contract signed this summer by a rival team followed by a decade long "in your face" dance by the former first rounder. I kid.
Bob Stauffer talked to Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor today and the entire conversation got me thinking about how a "reach" pick in the first round can impact an organization. Macgregor talked about a bunch of prospects and then touched on Kristians Pelss and his adjustment to the North American game. MBS suggested that he's learning about the WHL style and using his linemates to better advantage; Pelss was used to doing things on his own in the past because (at least in International play) there wasn't a lot of help.
I found it fascinating because Pelss is a 7th rd pick (181 overall) and what baseball people call a "draft and follow." Maybe he grows six inches or adds a foot to his fastball, maybe he doesn't but either way nothing ventured nothing gained.
The old guard often drafted obscure players in the first round. That's a huge difference, implying one has either the balls of a pirate or an addled brain (or both). Jesse Niinimaki was a major reach, Alexei Mikhnov was not heavily scouted and therefore there was a wide range of possible outcomes (I'm a math guy, but you need to see a player to confirm 10 fingers and toes).
This past summer at the draft, Edmonton's list was pretty famous. Most of it showed up at the NHL scouting combine before the draft and many of the Oilers picks were ranked by the major scouting services:
- #1: Taylor Hall: #1 (ISS, Redline, Bob McKenzie)
- #31: Tyler Pitlick: ISS20; Redline30; Bob McKenzie25
- #46: Martin Marincin ISS40; Redline 50; Bob McKenzie71
- #48: Curtis Hamilton ISS60; Redline 121; Bob McKenzie57
- #61: Ryan Martindale ISS61; Redline 100; Bob McKenzie58
- #91: Jeremie Blaine Redline 156
- #121: Tyler Bunz ISS 14G; Redline 178; Bob McKenzie NR
- #162: Brandon Davidson ISS75; Redline204; Bob McKenzie NR
- #166: Drew Czerwonka unranked
- #181: Kristians Pelss Redline218
- #202: Kellen Jones unranked
Why mention this now? Well, with the world juniors straight ahead I wanted to kick start the 2011 draft coverage here. I'll update over the next 10 days and we should have a better idea about the top drawer kids by early January.
You're a bold man, LT, to start draft coverage this early. As they say:
ReplyDeleteWho lets slip Fortune, her shall never find. Occasion once pass'd by, is bald behind.
I suspect you still favor Couturier as first overall, followed by RNH and Larsson?
Scouting fascinates me, how scouts can guess so well how one 80-point scorer in the CHL will be a first rounder, yet another is worth only a fourth. Size? Sure, it matters, unless you have Patrick Kane. Same example goes for "stacked team pads stats, unless you're Patrick Kane", or "excessive minutes pad stats, unless you're Patrick Kane".
I'd love to learn something about scouting.
Oh BTW, Merry Christmas.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your blog. I wish you and your family the best over the holidays and in the New Year. Health, happiness, success, may your dreams and wishes come true and may you strike the balance of calm and excitement that suits you all best.
I echo Bad Wojo's comments re the Blog and wishing you and yours a great and relaxing festive season.
ReplyDeleteThis blog is a must read each day. Love the guys (and girls) that post here. Great place to get and seriously consider someones very different take on what you see with the Oilers.
I have even followed you over to your insightful columns on Oiler Nation notwithstanding FIST
I think it will be fascinating to get an early start on the top draft picks sort themselves out: who are the favorites, how big is the cluster at the top, who underperforms, longshots, etc
Bad Wojo: Thanks for the kind words and the best of the season to you and yours.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to have lunch with MBS. Among my questions:
1. Do you sometimes want to strangle the coach and or manager?
2. How much of an injury history do you get on each player before the draft combine?
3. Is alchohol as big an item for these kids as it was 30 years ago? What about drugs?
4. Was that exchange about Marincin/Pitlick on Oil Change typical or do you open up a can of whoopass?
5. Were you pressured to name Taylor Hall as the top selection?
--
As an aside, I started last year's draft coverage November 20, 2009. I'm more optimistic this season. :-)
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ReplyDeleteBad Wojo: Christmas is on the 25th, its Festivus tomorrow. So happy Festivus everyone, and may the Oilers have a Festivus miracle in their game against LA and come away with a win.
ReplyDeleteOof, sorry.
ReplyDeleteBlogger flipped out and kept telling me "link is too long, cannot post", so I kept trying different things. Can you delete those?
Happy Holidays to everyone.
ReplyDeleteI could give a little insight into players regarding alcohol and drugs.
I suspect no more then your average teenager. I know billets for both the Blades and Raiders and it's night and day with how it used to be.
Billets are expected to provide stability for kids. Routine, meals, etc. Teams impose curfew. Violate a curfew and a guy like Lorne Mollekan will rip you a new ass and ship you to Prince George. ;)
I remember stories of a couple of tough kids who played for the Raiders in the 80's that basically lived together alone in a 3rd world hell hole of place and were rampant alcoholics. I guarantee that stuff isn't happening in the dub now.
If there is drugs then I suspect it is of the PED variety. There is a lot of money on the line. I could see some people using any edge they could get.
I was really hoping this was the "wish LT a merry Christmas and quote your favorite poetry" thread.
ReplyDeleteIn that spirit
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Which either sums up the internet community or the management of the Oilers.
And Merry Christmas LT. Hope it is uneventful and memorable for the right reasons.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu, that's a much better idea.
ReplyDeleteI deleted my last draft-speculated comment.
You're right, maybe we all could thank Lowetide for all his incredible hard work for this past year, wish him and his family a beautiful Christmas and New Year, and perhaps, if we feel like it, share a bit of poetry or a quote or whatever. LT is a gem.
Bad Wojo: Why did you delete it? It was great!! Can you post it?
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the kind words but that gets boring. Rip it up!!!
I agree with LT Wojo - that stuff was gold. Check a cached version of the site to find it maybe.
ReplyDeleteWell, since you insist. I don't know if I can re-post it, but I'll try to go from memory...
ReplyDeleteThat's a great list of questions and if I sat down with MBS (by the way, great nickname for Stu), my first questions would be on Hall/Seguin. In particular, their psych profiles. I was a Seguin guy going into the draft and was disappointed right until the post-draft interview, when Hall said he was shaking in his seat in anticipation. The kid is psychotically competitive, he wants to go #1 so bad, and he really strikes me as a nerd - a jock-y, superstar athlete, but a hockey nerd nonetheless. The psych profiles of the two would be great to discuss, as well as Stu's thoughts on BPA-A (Hall) vs BPA-B (Seguin) + need. In particular, I'd love to know what a scout thinks of someone who wins at every level.
The only question on your list that I wouldn't come up with on my own is the alcohol/drugs one, simply because I can't imagine a kid with a legit shot at NHL fame, fortune, luxury, fitness - and getting to play for a living - risking that for some partying.
Alcohol has very deleterious effects on health and fitness. Youth and already being fit mask that, but as I wrote in my original post, a couple of years ago I got myself into great shape. I didn't drink, I ate healthy, I worked out 6 times a week for at least an hour a day. Within a few weeks of resuming drinking (the weekend hard drinking kind), I found my performance had plateaued and I stopped progressing. The liver works 24/7, and if it's wasting resources (read: nutrients, cell-processing time) on alcohol metabolism, it isn't doing the stuff that's important for day to day life. Besides, a shot of vodka is like a shot of 40% sugar water: it messes with your metabolism as well as your brain.
Everyone into fitness (which has to include NHL hopefuls) will find this out and I can't imagine any kid who wants to play in the NHL, who believes he can play in the NHL (and who makes it if they don't believe?) - I can't believe they'd risk sabotaging themselves by drinking too much.
That said, the special case has to be Russians, where *half* of all premature deaths among males (and there's a lot of them, see Russia's plummeting life expectancy), are alcohol-related. http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2009/090626.html
As for marijuana, the most harmless of commonly available drugs (less harmful than alcohol according to a British study), besides the obvious effects on cardiovascular performance from smoking, are the psychological performance. If you smoke up Saturday afternoon and suddenly the world is fine, music sounds beautiful, you feel super relaxed and lazy, how could you motivate yourself to go to the gym and do some plyometrics? And these days, that is what it takes to get to the NHL. It's not just NHLers working out all year - off-season or not - it's kids. Have you seen the Seguin/Nash Underarmor commercial? Seguin is HUGE. The kid is a beast.
Which brings me back to psych profiles: I'd ask Stu how much they're factored in, how often they're used, if teams are permitted to send draft candidates to a psychologist. My bet is, if they're allowed, they're under-utilized. The older I get, the more certain I am that upbringing and parenting - giving the proper motivation and positive yet driven environment - are even bigger factors than genetics in terms of sports success. Call it the Tim Tebow effect. My bet is that Hall, like Tebow, scored through the roof on that. Hall is a shamelessly happy hockey kid, the way Tebow obviously doesn't care what people think of him and he loves football with all his heart. Intangibles off the charts.
I hope that's everything :)
Oh, I forgot:
ReplyDeleteSince I'd never think to ask about substance abuse, I'd probably never factor in how much that affects later-round prospects, who declare for the draft but aren't listed on the big draft lists, the unrated guys who might go 140th overall, or 200th.
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ReplyDeleteJust to be clear, if we are around 40, somewhat out of shape and are ok with modest health while being in a career that mostly relies upon our brain, but the vast majority of people around us are even more pathetic than we are thus making it easy to rise above the competition; then some beer and pot are ok, right?
ReplyDeletePlease answer as soon as possible - I have plans tomorrow!
I am still upset they drafted Jones. At least grab someone with some size and some possibility of playing in the show. (Small fish I know)
ReplyDeleteAnother question for you LT in your draft analysis: Is Adam Larssen really any better than David Rundblad (they play on the same team) who went 15th in 2009?
A flames fan @ work said his team still had a chance.
ReplyDeletethen i walked him thru the standings and a 95pts for playoff record required. they have to go 29-12-6. he is excited about the draft too.
A number of months ago I posted, under my handle Lebowski, on Russians and alcoholism, both in jest and seriousness. I was castigated by two other posters for being racist/prejudiced. After making a quip about the Irish ala Blazing Saddles (in total jest) LT told me to "take the gaspipe" and banned me for a day.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately (for myself) I still hold a resentment and this is my first post since.
It's fairly general knowledge that alcoholism is ravishing eastern Europe but I guess if you can support your point by citing an article, you probably won't be called out for racism or for making "ethnic remarks" as LT put
it' and then being told to commit suicide.
There's rather a wide gulf between what Bad Wojo said and what you did, which was
ReplyDeleteI think my view on the Russians is fairly accurate however. Generally speaking they seem to have big egos, a sense of entitlement, superiority complexes, want things to go their way, are greedy, and dare I say, booze problems.
re: Russians and alcohol
ReplyDeletewhen i was 17 i had the opportunity to represent Canada playing volleyball. We spent 3 weeks going on a tour of the different "sport schools" and playing in a few different tournaments. This was right in the middle of the political revolution and we were always escorted by military. There was a huge educational aspect to the trip as we were often paired up with guides from the competing teams.
At the time, it was an incredibly poor area of the world. The one thing that absolutely shocked me were the drinking options. A bottle of water was about $5, a pepsi was about $1-2 and a bottle (1 ltr) of vodka was about $0.05. In moscow, there were small vendors every couple of blocks (like hotdog or giro vendors in NYC), except all they sold were smokes and vodka.
We went to 3 or 4 meals at the homes of the players and at each one, they had their own moonshine, which made EverClear seem like vitamin water.
This aspect, perhaps more than any other part of the trip, absolutely shocked me. The communist sport machine was also amazing to see (what with preferential housing, child measurements and Olympic medal reverance).
Any guesses on what Mickey Mantle's career stats would have looked like if he'd stayed off the booze LT?
ReplyDeleteLebowski: I'm glad everything worked out.
ReplyDeletethen i walked him thru the standings and a 95pts for playoff record required. they have to go 29-12-6. he is excited about the draft too.
ReplyDeleteHah, that's great work right there.
LT: Considering what Niinimaki is now and how his injury hindered his development tremendously, combined with the fact that pretty much all the players after him up to Stoll didn't make it, or made it with another team, that KP actually made the right call that day?
ReplyDeleteI remember seeing Bonsignore play as an AHLer a couple times, on the ice with young versions of BIG Georges Laraque, Dennis Bonvie (knew a guy who skated on his line in Nova Scotia hockey, "I never got into more fights than when I went partying with Dennis"), Ralph Intranuovo, Jesse Belanger, Terrance Sandwidth.. Jose Theodore! Yeah, good times. Bonvie scored one game, I turned to my buddy and said "What the hell, I KNOW that won't be the game-winner!" It was. Bonvie was by far the most popular player on the ice, and let's just say I didn't live in Hamilton at the time.
ReplyDeleteBonsignore was a tweener, too good for the AHL but not good enough for even a 12th spot on an NHL roster - even the Oilers of the mid 90s. He was big, could skate and pass but his rink started at centre ice and he worked just hard enough to tantalize, not hard enough to do much else.
As for the draft: I've been looking forward to it since July. Could be worse; a friend of mine is an Islanders fan, and as if that's not enough suffering, he's also a Mets and Nets fan. Poor bastard.