Saturday, December 4, 2010

Blues at Oilers, G26 '10-'11

This is Bernie Federko. More than any other hockey player, his reputation as a player has suffered because he's in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

Federko was a helluva player. His peak value arrived just about the time Edmonton was posting Stanley's annually, so his name showed up well down the list of scorers, etc. Showing up in the top 10 scorers every year doesn't sound like much, but it's a tremendous challenge when the Oilers, Islanders and Nordiques were locked and loaded every game.

I'm not saying Federko belongs in the HHOF, my views on that institution are well known (I suggest we start over). However, as time rolls along Federko seems to be a punchline and his career somehow without merit.

Bernie Federko was an outstanding hockey player. I thought someone should say that, it seems to have been awhile.
--

Have you looked at the RelCorsi's lately? The kids (Hall, Eberle) are lighting it up:
  1. Hall 14.5
  2. Eberle 10.5
  3. Penner 9.3
  4. Horcoff 6.9
  5. Gagner 6.8
  6. Hemsky 6.6
That's exceptional. The puck is headed in the right direction and they're babies. Shawn Horcoff isn't getting a lot of credit, but he should be and I think Penner is hugely underrated too based on what I'm reading out there right now. This top 6 is humming.
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Do you remember the Gretzky shot over Vernon's shoulder? Or the Yzerman rip that we saw coming at us from the endzone camera? One day, Taylor Hall may score a goal like that one. Until then, I'll remember his backhand beauty for a long time. His terrific speed got him past an actual NHL defensemen and then he went "Dave Keon backhand" on the goaler. I don't know if Taylor Hall knew he could do that, but he does now.

Jesus Mary and Joseph. Kid's a beauty.
--

Do you have some concern about the qualcomp numbers Gabriel is posting this season? I think his system is fine but honestly question it because the coaches seem to be rolling 4 lines. There's more luck involved than the MacT hard match days imo, and when I see Ales Hemsky facing the soft parade I'm not certain it's real. Here are the current qual comp's for all forwards (toughest to easiest minutes):
  1. Eberle .196
  2. Horcoff .152
  3. Jacques .140
  4. Cogliano .123
  5. Hall .105
  6. Pääjärvi .102
  7. Brule .096
  8. Penner .017
  9. Gagner -.005
  10. Fraser -.008
  11. Stortini -.036
  12. Jones -.042
  13. Hemsky -.042
  14. MacIntyre -.129
I'm all for stats versus "saw him good" and Desjardins' work is brilliant. I'm just wondering if there'a point in the season when these things will correct themselves, or if the "rolling 4 lines" syndrome means the qual comp impression isn't as strong. Thoughts?
--

I wonder if there's a point where Steve Tambellini will pick up the phone and add a right handed checking center, a veteran defender and maybe a two-way winger to replace Stortini (who the coach doesn't like). This team is unlikely to make the playoffs and my hope is that the club adds only for the future, but with Fraser not looking like that checker/pk man, with Jones more a scorer than 2-way winger and with the team having holes along the blue addressing these problems now gives the club a head start on summer.

162 comments:

  1. Oilers are playing .500 at home.

    No way they make the lottery, not with the way the kids are figuring out NHL play as they are currently showing.

    Looks like it's playoffs or bust.

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  2. Oilers are playing .500 at home.

    ???

    Oiler's record as per NHL.com
    Home
    3-6-1
    Away
    6-6-3

    Did you mean they are playing .500 away?

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  3. The annoying thing is that these are the questions we've asked for the last 2 or 3 years. I think it was you or someone at Oilers nation, but the question posed was why not bring up the top line from the AHL and run them as our 4th? O'Marra (RH checking centre with size), Reddox (PK and energy two way player) and OMark (who could be subbed for a tough guy when needed). Makes more sense it seems since they fill roles better. Replace Jones and Fraser with O'Marra and Reddox and we are a better team right now.

    I wonder what their plans are. Cogliano and Jones may net you something in a deal with their improved play of late. Even just moving Cogliano and Fraser makes more sense.

    Are we better with this lineup?

    Hall-Horcoff-Eberle
    MPS-Gagner-Hemsky
    Penner-Brule-Omark
    Jones-O'Marra-Reddox
    Stortini-Macintyre

    Seems like we still run the youth option, but have better players to fill needed roles (like the rh c, PK).

    So what could we get for a Cogs or Fraser and one of our D men? Vandermeer is playing much better, so do you try and move him along with Cogs to a team that needs a vet Dman and a young "potential' player?

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  4. DBO - I doubt you get anything for Fraser or Vandermeer. If Vandermeer has a run like he has had lately for a few months then you might get something for him at the deadline.

    I'd pump and dump Cogliano. Again I don't think he has much value now though. But a few more months playing with Penner, some PP time and then you might get something of value for him.

    Hemsky back tonight?

    Hoping to see a good effort tonight, it would be nice to see them show that they haven't been reading their press clippings. Should be interesting.

    December schedule is far softer than November's. If they stay healthy and get some luck they could pick up some points for better or for worse.

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  5. Brule cant play D to save his life so I'm not inclined to slot him in at 3C.

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  6. The Oiler's fortunes seemed to have turned when they played terrible Eastern teams.

    They also changed when Renney took 5 from the top 4 and put 2 up in his place.

    2 is playing much better with 6 than 5 did, and 26 is playing better with 5 than he did with 2. 77 and 49 seem to work as well.

    Is this the death knell of hoping 5 would make it as a top 4 Dman?

    Is there patience for him on the coaching staff?

    Do you try to move 5 this spring or summer if another team thinks he's got top 4 potential?

    Is Murray desperate enough to move Cowen for 13 + 5 + pick or prospect?

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  7. Oilers have the most dynamic rookie duo since Kane and Toews, both coming into their own. They're playing .500 on the road, and are headed toward the playoffs, or a 20th place finish.

    Hall making like a young Gordie Howe with 4 goals in the past 5 games.

    The season is a hybrid of over-optimism, and reality(Lowetide).

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  8. spOILer - nor do I but if you're moving Cogs then he's the guy who slots in.

    We've been looking for that centre for years now and I think that unless they bring in a stopgap that he is coming from within.

    So Cogliano is getting his shot and then it will be up to Pitlick, Vande Velde and Lander to win the job.

    But if they get a good offer for 13 they may as well move him and then 67 is the only guy I can see who can slot in there.

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  9. I'm starting to like the way Tambellini is sitting on his hands letting everything work itself out thoroughly, not doing anything just letting nature take it's course.

    If some of the posters were running the club for real, that would be terrifying.

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  10. Cogliano/Brule both appear to be veering toward bust status viz their draft pedigree, but both are looking slightly better in reduced roles.

    There's no reason to trade either of them until the end of the season, hopefully getting rid of the worst one, haha.

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  11. To tell you the truth, Pat. I think would move them both. But if I had to choose, I think I move Brule.

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  12. I also doubt we'd get much for cogs or vandermeer right now, but i wonder if we are "rebuilding" would it make more sense to give O'Marra a shot with the big club as well as reddox and see if they fit the future. Cogs may have some value to a team like the Sens who are desperate for fresh blood and some youth. Cogs is still young, so a team like the Sens may want him for a 2nd rd pick. Maybe Vandermeer goes as well since they could use a more physical vet on their back end.

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  13. Hunter, I think we're taking more if teams come asking for help at the deadline, rather than trying to make a contender out of trading.

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  14. What is up with Stortini anyway. I like his game a lot for his position in the line-up. I think his stats show he's responsible. What gives? Anyone have some insight?

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  15. macotim: I think it comes down to the coach (Renney) not liking him. Stortini (on merit) certainly belongs in the top 12 among this group but the coach scratched him opening night.

    It's a tell, and Stortini's position on the roster is like an old rickety bridge.

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  16. spOILer - I would as well but that contract does not help

    Neither has a future with the club with Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi on the wings and Horcoff and Gagner up the middle plus you have Hemsky and Penner in the mix, I have to think they will sign at least one of them. They had better.

    And the kids are coming.

    Neither 13 or 67 are babies any more, their time is nearly up.

    DBO - yeah I can get behind that, might take injuries though to open holes in the lineup though.

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  17. I'm glad someone finally mentioned Hall's backhand goal in Toronto the other night...it blew my friggin mind. Just to have the confidence to attempt a shot like that on the side of rink that would normally a forehand shot for him...unbelievable.

    I actually read a Ben Massey article on Cnb this week that reffered to it as "pedestrian backhander"... it was much more than that!

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  18. What is truly amazing is that in the 40-80% of icetime that HEH is getting against the best and second best of the opposition - they are tilting the ice in their favor. Maybe that is the method in this madness. Other than Pajaarvi and Jones, each of those forwards have been taking a dose of the toughs.

    That's development? No perry/getzlaf style sheltering here.

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  19. @ Norman Mendoza:

    Or it can be said that Oilers organisation remembers from it's dynasty days how to rebuild a winning team.

    Take uber talented kids and toss them into the water, because great talent always rises.

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  20. I sense a little bit of optimism in here and it feels alright, doesn't it? We might fall off the wagon again and get drilled by the elite teams - that's a good bet - but here's a few games now with the chances for/against looking better and 10 bringing along the kids and 91 getting his shot with 89-83.

    The only worry might be that they didn't play a great gamein TO given the comp so let's see how they do tonight against a banged-up and terrible road team; albeit with a dangerous goalie who can shut out anyone at any time.

    not sure if 83's playing tonight or not and I mentioned Halak could get hot at any time so I'll be pleased just as long as they come close to sawing off chances-wise.

    WG: Yeah, I mentioned that point before about 5 and I guess right now he's the best kind sticking around as long as he's not really getting paid. But, yeah, here's another coach that as of right now isn't ready to give him that top four time he's always thought he deserved. It would be good if he excelled at something - like maybe became an excellent PKer - but right now the best thing he does is carry the puck; though it never leads to anything offensively.

    he certainly can't be pleased with his career path though considering his supposed pedigree.

    But like I said the year he scored all those points in the A seems to be an anomoly worthy of an ESPN 30 for 30 film.

    Still, he's alright as long as he doesn't get paid.

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  21. Hall's backhand goal really stood out for me as well. I think I may even have posted that Gus was pulled unfairly after it.

    How often does a guy going full tilt towards the net throw a backhand shot into the top corner of the net?

    Goalies can't read a backhand as easily and combined with the speed and accuracy it was a either a great goal scorers goal or a wicked fluke.

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  22. Pat: Yeah, that's a pretty good breakdown. It looks like our top 2 pivots are in place - for better or for worse - and then the three kids to slot out the four wing spots and one of 27/83 fleshes it out and the other's dealt away for a D.

    The only way this would change is if let's say 91 became earmarked as a hopefully-elite checking winger and PK and maybe eventually paired with Lander on the third line but that's just spitballing.

    And, yeah, maybe one of 13-67 survive but only if they find a role and if they accept less money: though one bleeds into the other because if you don't get to play on an offensive line there's no way you get paid.

    Unless you're Gilbert Brule;)

    13 would seem to be the best candidate because of his speed and the fact that one of these decades he might learn to win a draw.

    As for how to help the bottom six immeadiately you'd just get rid of 16-22 and bring up ROM and Reddox and give it a shot. But there are a lot of problems with the PK and the more I think about it the more I think the coaching staff's approach isn't helping in the least.

    Still, 16-22 aren't getting anything done so turf them.

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  23. I think that if the goalie played the angle better he stops it BUT i was in love with just how fucking quick 4 cut the corner to drive back towards the net and how much juice he got on his shot attempt.

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  24. Hemsky not skating and reported as "out indefinitely"

    Put him on the goddam IR, let him heal properly and call up 23 FFS.

    Not letting groin injuries heal properly can cause them to linger for freaking months/years.

    Let's have a look at youtube!!

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  25. I think the biggest problem with 5 has been injury. Everytime it seemed as if he is doing well and finally figuring stuff out, he has gotten injured. It happened last season, early this season and seems to happen a lot wit him

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  26. re: players that might help...

    the oilers should have been following that plan last year, in the spring. i'm sure we could have pried broadziak our of minny for souray at the last deadline.

    i'm becoming more and more convinced that the mgt just has a losing attitude and have rebranded it as "a rebuild". there's no reason we shouldn't have fielded a competitive team this year. it's embarrassing -- if the hhof needs a complete restart, so does our "team building".

    i think stu has shown that he can get quality with any pick, so let's try and finish as high as we can. let's get these kids used to being competitive and winning.

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  27. 2011-2012 Salary cap could go up another $2+ million. Discussion next week at NHL B of G mtngs. Full story up soon on TSN.ca

    As per Dreger.

    Am I an idiot thinking that Brad Richards would be a perfect 1C for this team?

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  28. Sat Night HNIC 2nd game so the boys should be pumped. Would not be surprised if they crap the bed again. But lets see what they can do. Give Hemmer a 10 days off and bring up some one from the farm

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  29. @ Woodguy

    It all comes down to how much we are willing to offer. However, at this point I would consider Toronto and the rangers to be the favorites in the Richards sweepstakes.

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  30. @wg everytime i hear about the salary cap going up, i just think, "ok, my seats are getting more expensive" and as a result I'm becoming a bigger fan of WHL because it's actually an affordable "pass time"

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  31. Hemsky out means no reason to not call up O'Mark. Give hi a shot on the gagner's line and run with it.

    And one of Macintyre and storts should go. I like stortini, but Renney obviously doesn't. Move him for a better two way forward like Reddox and go from there. For how much we use MAcintyre, he is useless. Bring up O'Mark and Reddox, and when we can move out Fraser or Cogs bring up O'Marra. Better balanced team. Sorry a balanced team would make too much sense. My bad.

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  32. Ladies & Gents, The Barons:

    Goals:
    Liam Reddox 13
    Linus Omark 12
    Colin McDonald 12
    Brad Moran 8
    Teemu Hartikainen 7

    ES Goals:
    Liam Reddox 9
    Colin McDonald 9
    Linus Omark 8
    Brad Moran 5
    Alexandre Giroux 3
    Ben Ondrus 3

    Shots:
    Liam Reddox 104
    Alexandre Giroux 77
    Linus Omark 63
    Brad Moran 63
    Colin McDonald 54

    Shooting %:
    Colin McDonald 0.22
    Linus Omark 0.19
    Chris Vandevelde 0.15
    Teemu Hartikainen 0.14
    Greg Stewart 0.14

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  33. And Assists:

    Alexandre Giroux 15
    Shawn Belle 14
    Ryan O'Marra 12
    Linus Omark 11
    Brad Moran 11

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  34. On an abrupt change of subject, anybody else see this sophisticated analysis of the arena question from former mayor Bill Smith?

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  35. I didn't want to say this when it happened but I'd imagine there could be something seriously wrong with 83.

    I thought that to be the case when I heard about his reaction the day that he first hurt himself; his behaviour seemed a bit extreme for something minor.

    And now we hear this so I'm prepared for the worst.


    And, yes, if he's not even skating then out him on IR and get someone else up here; we're so fucking thing at the 10-13th forward spots that we can't afford to stand pat.

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  36. Cogs / Brule debate is interesting. It doesn't look like either has much of a fit for the future.

    Brule's offense has completely dried up. Cogliano has displayed tons of 'effort' but not much effectiveness. It pains me to watch him lose draw after draw... I'm surprised he's still floating around ~41% or so--haven't checked lately.

    Toonces hasn't shown much regard for the Oilers inability to kill penalties or win faceoffs, so it's hard to expect that to change.

    If the Oilers can go on a heater for the next month or so, the diminishing draft lotto chances might force their hand to do something internal or via trade.

    I agree about Hemsky. Having played hockey for years, groin injuries are pesky and unpredictable in terms of healing time.

    We all know which numbers should be on the way out at some time soon: 22, 33, 43, then 16...

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  37. If Tambellini was smart will stay the course at this point. He should wait for the trade deadline and use the Sam Presti OKC NBA model That involves using his roster and cap space as a dumping ground to facilitate trades for teams that want to upgrade their talent and are up against the cap.

    Will you take Michael Ryder off my roster? Absolutely, if I get a late 3rd round pick, etc. Presti is a master at stockpiling assets. And we have the MBS to turn an extra 2nd and 3rd into silver!!!

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  38. Good day.

    Lain, you know that I don't think much of qual-comp and qual-team, even with larger sample sizes.

    These metrics told us that last year, after a full season, Gagner played with the best teammates and against the other teams' dregs. If this is true, then Pat Quinn is a line matching genius and/or all other NHL coaches are idiots. Yeah... I don't buy it.

    You also know that I love all the other metrics that our brainy cyber-pals have introduced to us.

    If qual-comp and qual-team were derived from TOI, with obvious divisions between forwards and defensemen, we would have a truer picture AND be in sync with what NHL coaches actually do... play their best players most.

    Currently these two stats are calculated from +/-. Stink-eye stats beget more stink-eye stats. imho.

    L8r
    Louise

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  39. I know this off topic but, my brother and sister in law have a bit of a problem. They couldn't find a sitter for my nephew who is 22 months old. Anyways long story short they need to take him to the game with them but they only have my season seat tickets for the two of them. Does Rexall allow parents to bring children under 2into the game for free if they sit on the parents lap?

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  40. Dennis - I'm pretty sure I read that Hemsky hasn't had groin troubles before so it was something new to him. I can imagine it being a shock if that's the case and adjusting/healing might take a bit. I'm not worried because he came back and played a game and didn't look terrible or anything. Groins get teared to shreds playing hockey but it hasn't stopped most players from playing at their top levels.

    - Dreger reporting that the cap could go up $2M next season.

    - Rishaug has Storini in the lineup. Struddy and McIntyre out.

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  41. Jay: Yeah, after having just saw the video rom Renney's pre-game I'm more convinced than ever that bad news is afoot with 83; the only thing that's a positive area is we haven't put him on the IR yet.

    but then again it's not like inactivty isn't something we're not used to either.

    BTW, I really don't know what the deal is with the Oilers and ignoring the PK and not trying to shore up the bottom six. they should be gone mad trying to get rid of 67 because do they really think he'll score points unless he's being lead in that direction? and if he doesn't score points than what's his value? and these are all things I've said since the summer.

    13's a guy I think who might be able to be a benefit as the other winger on a line with two really good checkers and low-event guys. Just ask him to cover his point and forecheck and you could keep him around as long as he didn't want to get paid to much.

    then you get to the 4th line and just fill that spot with guys that can PK. that's not part of the crew we have there so why not try some of the farmhands in those spots?

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  42. Does Rexall allow parents to bring children under 2into the game for free if they sit on the parents lap?

    Yes they do.

    Good idea to bring hearing protection for the little one.

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  43. No Hemsky makes me sad. But this song will always brighten my day.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvI9AuCzhJU

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  44. I know if Hemsky does go out on the IR the hfboarders will go mad if Linus doesn't come up, but would most of us agree Reddox would be the best option to come up considering our weaknesses?

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  45. Anon: That's a terrible video. Is this fellow popular? Entertainment isn't what it used to be.

    Anon: Reddox should be up here anyway. I think Renney would be more comfortable using Reddox instead of Stortini and now that he has Jacques I suspect it'll happen eventually (once they're comfortable with Jacques health).

    As for Omark, it's time. Bring him up, give him 100 at-bats and see what we've got.

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  46. Louise: Yeah, you've always said that about the qual comp. I'm beginning to agree.

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  47. @Dennis, yeah I agree with you. Brule out and Cogliano to the wing on the cheap on the right line makes sense. Cogliano stepping away from the faceoff circle and moving to the wing makes too much sense that it should be unlikely to happen. ;)

    I wonder which scenario would provide greater impetus for V 3.0 to address the pk/faceoffs... It's hard not to think that if the Oilers are in a comfortable draft lotto position (beyond the 40 games) that they won't just let it ride and wait for the draft.

    In my mind, if they're able to stay somewhat competitive and in range of playoff spot (unlikely) by the halfway marker and beynond, that would provide greater incentive to address these issues.

    @LT, I'm sure we all agree that we'd like to see the Ox and Omark. Depending on the Hemsky situation, we might see Omark... If Storts is the odd man out with Jaques back and healthy(pun intended, sort of), then maybe we see something.

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  48. I suggested TOI as a quality measure a few years back.

    MC79 [if I recall correctly] ran some comparisons; Enhanced +/- against TOI, Zonestart and a few other things.

    They all gave similar results.
    There were outliers in each method.

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  49. Thanks for that, Mr DeBakey.

    We should expect outliers, no?

    TOI is dictated by coaches and the players' level of play. There aren't many other factors that influence it, so it is relatively pure.

    By comparison, +/- can be impacted by so many things not in a player's control. It's a fuzzy stat and when you put fuzzy in, you get fuzzy out. No amount of enhancing will clean it up, imho.
    Tho, if you brought this up a few years ago you probably agree with me, at least somewhat.
    :-)

    If Gabe and Vic could get together and create qual-comp/qual-team based on ESTOI, I think we could move many conversations forward.

    ...

    Took you long enough, Lain.
    ;-D

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  50. ID,

    I think ESTOI also has its issues.

    Jim Vandermeer has been leading the Oilers in ESTOI for Oilers D in the last few games and no one will mistake him for the Oilers' best.

    The higher end players get lots of special teams TOI, which will impact ESTOI.

    I had proposed to Gabe a stat which measures Expected GAON/60 based the GFON/60 of the player's cumulative opponent, which will allow to measure "defensive ability", which can take opposition strength into account.

    I.E). If player A has 2.5GA/60 and his cumulative opponent averages 3.0gf/60 then he gets credit for being a superior defensive player.

    Conversely is player B has 2.5GA/60 and his cumulative opponent has 2.0GF/60, he gets dinged for his defensive play.

    Same GAON/60, but with the added metric, player A shows up as superior.

    Gabe is re-doing his site and it may be possible to add this metric.

    There is also a distinct possibilty he was just being nice to my inquiry about adding it.

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  51. Did you mean they are playing .500 away?


    He doesn't live in Edmonton, so Edmonton is home, its away.

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  52. Gregory Campbell just got a penalty on HNIC.

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  53. Great read LT, but I'm not sure how you can say Renney is rolling 4 lines? You must have a different definition of rolling lines that I do. The ES TOI for the 4th line forwards are:
    JFJ - 7:40
    Fraser - 7:39
    Stortini - 7:15
    Smac - 3:32

    The top of the list for Forwards ES TOI:
    Hall - 15:05
    Eberle - 14:28
    Horc - 14:25

    Wow, what a great sign to see those two at the top of the list. Special players.

    I love it when Renney sits the 4th line and just rolls over 3 even lines. The 4th line isn't much fun to watch.

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  54. Tim the toolman Thomas at .956!

    I know he's got a 7ft octupus playing in front of him for half the night, but where would the Oilers be with a SV% like that?

    Chiarelli wouldn't be stupid enough to trade T. Rask would he?

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  55. Anyone else notice that Columbus was playing great hockey, but hasn't won since Ethan Moreau came back?

    Maybe his wife is letting the kids run wild in players only areas there too.

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  56. Woodguy: Jim Vandermeer has been leading the Oilers in ESTOI for Oilers D in the last few games and no one will mistake him for the Oilers' best.

    Ummm... "We should expect outliers, no?"
    ... especially in small sample sizes, correct?
    :-)

    I often like the way you think, Woodguy, and you may well be right about how to determine qual-comp/qual-team. I would still like to see a full season (not coached by OTC) based on ESTOI.

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  57. These metrics told us that last year, after a full season, Gagner played with the best teammates and against the other teams' dregs. If this is true, then Pat Quinn is a line matching genius and/or all other NHL coaches are idiots. Yeah... I don't buy it

    You can sniff test it with timeonice.com.

    During the Ottawa game Gagner played 7 shifts against Neil-kelly-Foligno and one es shift aginst alfreddson-Spezza-regin.

    Horcoff and the kids saw a bunch of time versus Ottawa's vaunt.

    Then against Montreal, gagner plays a bunch of time against the halpern and Pouliot-Darche-Eller lines while Horcoff sees alot of time against Gomez and Plekanec.

    Against San Jose, gagner sees a bunch of time against Couture-ferriero-Clowe, and exactly 1 ES shift against Thornton-Heatley-marleau. Horcoff had 15 shifts against the big line.

    Maybe other NHL coaches just aren't all that worried about gagner, or the Oilers coach IS worried about getting him out there against guys that can do damage. Probably a bit of both.

    It certainly appears he is very much being spared facing the vaunt just by eyeballing how the shifts line up.

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  58. Bank Shot, I was talking about Gagner`s last year as an example. The Oilers have many more concerns for opposing coaches this year.

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  59. This is a bit of a bellweather game for this squad...

    First game back after a successful road trip. Playing a team we have had recent success against...

    Will they let off the gas or go for the jugular? Tonight might be a good tell on where this team is at mentally.

    Oiler teams of the past few years lost this kind of game every chance they got.

    WG... you put down any units on this puppy?

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  60. I was at the game in Montreal and I remember Hemsky, either hitting a teammate or a Canadien in the center ice area. Their midsections seemed to contact, and Hemsky winced and headed immediately to the bench. It seemed innocent enough but he was leaned over in the bench in obvious pain. Groins are nasty buggers and I suspect that was the causative play.

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  61. ID,

    First of all Bruce M says hi. We are at the game together.

    In regards to ouliers, I think that they ST TOI skus things enough that its not an outlier, but something that needs to be accounted for.

    Lastly,

    "I often like the way you think, Woodguy,"

    I am humbled, thank you, but now question your sobriety. :)

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  62. Bank Shot, I was talking about Gagner`s last year as an example.

    Yeah, but the qual comp looks vaild this season and I don't see why it wouldn't in any other season. gagner has been getting the best linemates + weakest comp for a few years now, and Quinn's usage of guys like Horcoff, Pisani, and Moreau looks pretty similar to what Mact did.

    Why do any other coaches care if Gagner has been getting the primo minutes? To this point in his career, he hasn't been burying the other team's with his advantages in linemates and icetime, so they wouldn't really have any reason to avoid that matchup if the Oilers were looking for it.

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  63. Gagner handling Thornton or Toews or similar ilk is hard to believe. He should be facing 2nd liners till he's hammering it out of the park. Its only fair to him.

    Can someone explain to me why these stupid smartphones don't have <>'s?

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  64. Due to a series of fortunate events, I have 3 units on the Oilers in regulation to win 20.

    I should really buy out...

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  65. Fraser - loses a fight against a guy in his 2nd NHL game

    There's not many things that he does well.

    What did we do to get Lee + Weekes 2 weeks in a row?

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  66. SK:

    We live West of Ontario.

    --

    My god.

    When these Oiler forwards get some mojo going this is all kinds of fun to watch.

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  67. That's an interesting interpretation Mr. Referee.

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  68. These guys are really getting fun to watch once they are over the opposition blue line.

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  69. Right back at you, Bruce. Hope you guys enjoy the game.

    Woodguy.

    Now can be added to the often in that quote you have there. :-)

    Ideally, all TOI is accounted for in the process. I can't do it myself, so I would be more than happy to just have the evens count. Cross-referencing with the other delightful tools at our disposal should suss out the anomalies.

    I'm sure that Bruce is too much of a gentleman to affirm that I am indeed old enough to start questioning my sanity, but I'd pass most sobriety tests these days... years... decades...
    ;-D

    ...

    Bank Shot.

    My discussion here was not about Sam Gagner. It was about the shortcomings of the current qual-comp/qual-team stat. I used him as an example because it was a bone of contention throughout the summer. That said, if you really think that he's getting marked the same way this year as he did last year, then there is no point going any further with you.

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  70. Decent period. They're moving their feet, tight checking, being physical. Couple of great offensive shifts. Probably should be able to beat up on this team with its injuries but they play that aggressive checking, stand it up at the blue style that has been givin us fits all season. And they have Halak.

    Just ask Gilbert Brule.

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  71. I kind of prefer the broadcast with no pbp...

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  72. I had the chances at 8-5 and after giving up the game's first two chances the only problems afterwards came on a lost own zone draw that resulted in two chances for Stl.

    The 10 line's on fire and the Oilers look interested in scrumming around down low in the Blues zone and taking it to the net so I'd say right now the biggest enemies are their PK or own zone draws.

    They really don't look like they're overly interested in shooting themselves in the feet and the Blues are really thin up front and only have so much offense to flash.

    I had the chances at 8-5, BTW

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  73. And then they forget to show up for the 2nd.

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  74. It looks like Halak could be the biggest worry tonight.

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  75. Its interested focused shifts like Penner is having this game that makes you wonder about the times when he's just okay.

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  76. hockey night in 3D next week. hilarious. maybe i'll drop acid.

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  77. Speaking of goalers (love that term BTY LT) that Timmy Thomas is a roit. It's not often you tune into games to watch the goaler, but I'd pay $ just to watch him.

    Ran out of Coke. Just found out that 7Up with the Captain is a reasonable fill-in.

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  78. Who ate Penner's donuts before the game? Guy ran at 2 guys in one shift.

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  79. Would love to see more of that shot from Magnum.

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  80. Pretty hard to argue that the org is purposely tanking when the 4th line barely hits the ice.

    Seems like Hall is really starting to feel his oats now too. Hopefully he can break the Calder drought for the Oil.

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  81. Can't imagine the scoring chances favored the Oil that period.
    Apparently the ice is sloped one way tonight. Oil should be good to go in the 3rd.

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  82. If this turns out to be a long term injury for Hemmer (10-15 games or more), it makes me wonder if the Oiler's don't choose Penner over him if they have to pick one or the other. Both guys are under contract for 1 more season and I think that's it's more than likely that we won't see both re-signed. Hemsky has a better points per game average than Penner, 0.79 ppg to 0.59 but Penner has missed 4 games in his career so far and Hemmer misses around 10 per season and with his style of play, I think he's going to be more liable to get hurt as he gets older. I'd like to see the Oiler's retain both of these guys but I think one of them will be trade bait as early as this summer.

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  83. I had the chances at 7-11 for that period and the Oilers saved it somewhat by registering the period's last three opps but other than that a very poor period with one problem being D being caught up ice and I dunno maybe that's something Renney's pimping.

    Khabby looks great, though, so one goal might be enough to get it done.

    BTW, I am loving 89's work ethic and new found strenght; he's going to the net nearly all the time now.

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  84. It looks like the Red Sox just swung a deal for Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. I hate to see Beltre go but Gonzalez is going to be a beast in Fenway.

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  85. Great read by Paajarvi to create room for that pass.

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  86. Nice play by Ikea. Jones has a bit of finish. I'm starting to come around on him.

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  87. Brule has been better the last few games but he's in love with that slapshot off the rush which kills the play and has almost no chance of going in.

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  88. Yeah, if Jones can become a Glencross type, we will have replaced someone for the first time in years.

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  89. Nice goal.

    Jones is a weird player. Tweener of sorts. Tries but falls down a lot. He can score though.

    Paajarvi far better since moving away from 13 and 67 but they are better since Penner joined them. 13 having a nice game tonight I think.

    The Horcoff line really doing a terrific job these past five or six games.

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  90. I get Paajarvi off my pool and he gets 3 straight games with a point.

    Oh and Khabi going for the 2nd straight SO.

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  91. RQ...

    He's found some good spots in the slot tonight and utilized his shot with traffic in front.

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  92. I don't know anything about winning face-offs, but 13 looks like he's trying to cut down a tree with a dull axe everytime he steps up to the dot.

    Nice play by 91 on the goal.

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  93. Petreangelo looks like he'll be a helluva D-man.
    If St Lou ever gets healthy again look out. They lack high end scoring, but there's lots to like.

    Having said that they have a bunch of guys that never play a whole season.

    KhaBoozin has been great tonight.

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  94. spOILer: I fully endorse the chances he has found in the slot tonight, but that slapshot on the rush is always a stupid play. You can score that way, but it's not worth the 100 odd rushes it takes to find a goalie that duffs it.

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  95. like i said, seems like 91 is over the flu. and is learning to play in the chel.

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  96. RQ...

    Rebound is the more common occurence and he doesn't usually put it where the keeper can kick it to the corner. Might force a face off too. And might change how the D plays him on the next rush. But I agree it's not something I'd like to see every game. Maybe on a line change.

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  97. F Me. Will Smid ever learn to protect himself a little better?

    It's going to be a short career.

    I'm in favour of getting a good return on him if the chance arises just based on the lack of him giving a s**t for his own melon.

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  98. Eberle has such a nice quick release.

    Gagner seems to have turned the corner. We can argue about this and that but he wins more than his share of puck battles, is responsible without the puck and creates chances every game. Nice player.

    Eberle's point there.

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  99. Someone take fpb out back and teach him a lesson lol.

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  100. Who had Brewer in the former Oiler scores pool?

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  101. SK Oil: Well that wasn't a regular contact.

    Really odd when you get knee'd in the face.

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  102. Spoiler: Not my fault if Penner and Cogs can't handle the puck alone :P. (jk but that sequence was fun)

    Honestly i tought he'd finish it, Blues weren't threatening before the nifty move by Johnson.

    (Is Eric Jack's bro?)

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  103. Somebody needs to teach the Oilers how to actually clear the zone. Eberle turning it over in the d-zone is painfully common, and he did it on the play that led up to the goal against.

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  104. FPB,
    In my view he led with his head like a football player. Get your hands up or something, just protect your dam head..

    It's just amazing how often he's in these precarious positions.

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  105. Horcoff smarter than your average Russian tractor.

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  106. spOILer: You're dreaming. It's a 50 ft slapshot with no traffic for a screen or a deflection and you'll never get a teammate on a rebound because they just crossed the blueline too. He's not thinking there at all. If I'm the dman there I want him to do that every rush. I suppose it could have a Columbo effect, that's all I'll give him.

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  107. Fzt - no they're not brothers

    SpOILer - I believe that's Komrade Horkov and traktor - the correct spellings I mean

    Though west of the Urals its generally Horcov.

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  108. The high-flying Oilers, I like them too. Nice goal, Hall.

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  109. Four in a row, six of eight.

    Weekes you schmuck its called advantage, they are not going to blow it dead.

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  110. Weekes is on crack. You have to get possesion for that be blown down. and the puck was in the net 5 seconds after Msdonald went down.

    And Mark Lee: it wasn't a hit by Horcof. Mcdonald fell into Horc's leg.

    Just brutal commentating. CBC will be getting an email.

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  111. Yeah Weekes is a tool. Macdonald fell and tripped Horcoff with the Oilers having puck possession.

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  112. So as they keep replaying the Andy MacDonald collision - which looked brutal and quite worrisome, though a complete accident - Weekes just completely ignores it. Bravo, you douchebag.

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  113. Steen for the Blues would be a great 3C for the Oilers. He reminds me of Horcoff from 6 or 7 years ago.

    Just brutal announcing by Lee & Weekes in OT. I'm shocked!

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  114. RQ... You're exaggerating at 50 feet... even moreso if we'r discussing all his shots. He can follow up on his own rebounds if the D played tight to the shot. And he had no help there anyway-he got the puck deep. And he tried it on what 1 out of 6 or 7 rushes? I aint gonna complain too much when he's on the shot deficient Oilers.

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  115. Well done on giving the Blues a point.... right?

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  116. PBoy, totally agree on Steen. He's turned into a solid player (like most players after they leave TO). He's been getting lots of chances, just not cashing, leads the team in shots.

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  117. Weekes is a tool and our Oil announcer buddy Jack is pissed tonight I'm sure.

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  118. Nice finish, but I'm still stunned at the call by Weekes and Lee.

    The #1 overall pick for a Canadian team just scored an OT winning goal and Weekes and Lee are debating on what should have happened when Mcdonald went down before and after the puck went in the net?

    Get real. I'm hitting mute next time these bafoons are on.

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  119. I'll have the chances up soon enough but I had the Oilers at 7-4 for the third period and 23-20 for the game a nice bounceback in the third period after a bad second period and a nice bounceback after a less than stellar game in TO.

    The timeline's gonna get moved up if the three kids keep playing like this and 83 isn't done for a long time.

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  120. That's one of the amazing things. That the Oil have accomplished much of this streak without 83.

    Moving the timeline forward would infer Tambo making a positive move. We kinna break the laws of physics.

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  121. Weekes is on crack. You have to get possesion for that be blown down

    Not really, if the player's health is thought to be at risk, the ref can blow it down. If McDonald looked unconscious, the ref is to blow the whistle the moment he sees it - if the puck were just about to cross the other goal line it doesn't matter. I think it was clear though that McDonand was conscious and was just woozy - no convulsions or nothing, so its fine.

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  122. Good game - loads of exciting things happing on this Oiler's team.

    I think the patience of Tom Renney deserves a lot of credit.

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  123. The Famed Hall needs to sit beside Smytty for a season and eat a steady diet of cliches. For all his honesty, he's still handling Awkward Hours wonderfully.

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  124. Whitney Watch: Now tied for 12th all-time for points in a season without a goal. Not bad for only 26 games in.

    Additionally, Eberle and Hall now 2nd and 5th respectively for rookie points totals; 7th and 2nd overall respectively for goals by a rookie.

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  125. OKC finishes a three point weekend in Winnipeg with a 4-0 win.

    Both Omark and ROM had a goal and an assist apiece and the Barons killed all 14 PK attempts in those two games.

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  126. Oh wow, Hall now leading the Oilers in goals too. Jebus.

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  127. The top 12 forwards all looked good - except for Brule. He doesn't seem to be able to win a battle.

    Cogs really coming along. His compete level has really gone up.

    Gilbert with very strong game too.

    Just remember the Oil won 5 in a row last December, only to lose the next 20.

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  128. Ducey: Cogliano is starting to have things go his way a bit more, but I don't know that his compete level was ever the problem.

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  129. That's a lead that might not be relinquished. 14 & 4 are absolute delights. Yeah the defensive errors are there but they're both amazing in their own end considering their level of experience---especially if they're really facing top comp.

    Watching these two figure the game out is a delight. Maggie starting to adjust too it looks like.

    Dennis is right. The Brainstrust might have to make a decision soon. All hinges on 27 and 83. Can they suck and keep them both? Do they even want to?

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  130. PBoy

    You realize Steen makes $3.35 m for the next 4 years? Good player, agreed wholeheartedly but sheesh we CANNOT pay a 3rd line center $3.35 million dollars.Particularly if the kids keep developing because they do not project to $4 million dollar players in 3 years

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  131. We are not positioned badly if we want to make moves at the deadline. We just need to make sure we are not making short term moves, a la rent Brad Richards for 6 months at a cost of Petry and Pitlick

    Agree completely, sound out Hemsky and Penner and if they want to stay for doable money...do not trade them. We need to identify the best three or four young RH 3C who wins face offs and kills penalties and trade for them at the deadline. Someone will be desperate. Ditto someone like Travis Hamonic on the Island. A young kid who could develop into #3-4 d man.

    Those are the deals I would like to make: a series of incremental advantages looking 2-3 years down the road

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  132. For all the years of pining for someone to play with Hemsky to cash on all those sweet passes, I'm perfectly happy seeing Hall and Hemmer on different lines.

    Pajaarvi may never get 60+ points but he's started to contribute in alot of little ways. He will be to the Oilers what Jordan Staal is to the Penguins. Has he ever played center?

    Weekes isn't nearly as bad as you all make him out to be. He tries too hard to make flowery statements and it obscures the fact that he knows the game.

    Whitney is a true number one dman. Aside from the obvious, he deflects 10 shots a game with his stick. Visnovsky is good, Whitney is better, cheaper, bigger and I suspect is better off-ice just due to the language barrier.

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  133. Mixed feelings on this one. I thought the Blues had some horrendous in-zone coverage. 4 and 14 are going to be special but I don't think this team turns the corner until one of 13/67 are dealt. Also, the 49/77 pairing has done a lot for Theo's game (weird how 77 tends to elevate his partners, almost like he's a valuable player!!)

    Also, let me try the 'what have you done for me lately thing':

    "No Hemsky, no problem"
    "Jim Vandermeer is a great offensive defenseman".
    "Khabibulin has rejuvenated his career!"

    Outliers folks, let's not get too carried away. There will be some sustain for 4, 14 and I'd say 49, but this is streak, plain and simple. If I were a betting man (and I am) my prediction would be that 35 falls apart sometime soon.

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  134. Oh, and who else had that period of silence at the start of P2 (just rink audio). Wasn't that the greatest? I am so sick and tired of Kevin Weekes using 100 words to say something completely meaningless.

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  135. @ Kinger

    49's performance this season stands on its own. 77 benefits from having a predictable stay at home dman as much as the the reverse. Both are good players that compliment eachother but 49 sure as hell hasn't collapsed when not paired with 77.

    re: offense without Hemsky, it's called scoring depth, get used to it.

    No reason to think that Vandermeer can't continue playing this way. He's still making mistakes, the big difference is he's simplified his own game while others around him have learned how to support eachother.

    re: Khabi- 3 different goalies have won in the last 4 games.

    My point: don't be so damn pessimistic.

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  136. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  137. Weekes isn't nearly as bad as you all make him out to be. He tries too hard to make flowery statements and it obscures the fact that he knows the game.

    His dead wrong comments also obscure his knowledge of the game.

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  138. "I think a lot of people tend to get caught up in the moment."

    Well thank god you're around. I kid. It would be impossible not to be a little pessimistic about this team, or long-viewish if you prefer.

    I realize as do most that at least 2 of the past 4 wins could have gone the other way if the opponent had any competent scorers or if our goaltending had struggled. But I think the team will play above .500 from here on out. Youthful exuberance and all that, plus a good coach.

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  139. Above .500 eh? Hmm.... maybe. I think another note of caution right now though, is that so far this season the Oilers have had very little injury trouble and that's not likely to remain the case for the remaining 56 games. Especially on D, the team could be in a world of hurt if they were to lose a guy like Whitney or Gilbert long-term.

    I'll always cheer for them to win in a given game, but it's still a development year and while I'd like to say goodbye to the blowout losses, there are likely to be a whole lot of one-goal losses this season.

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  140. Agreed. An injury to Whitney is worst/best case scenario, depending on where you stand re: lottery pick.

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  141. problem is that even if the team sputters out and plays like it did before the past 4 wins there's really not much room left at the bottom.

    i find it difficult to believe that edmonton can under-play the Islanders, Devils, Leafs and Panthers.

    whatever you think of the oilers, those are four truly wretched teams.

    that leaves one lottery spot and a number of teams fighting with the oilers for it.

    edmonton still has a very inconsistent, mediocre team. they could easily have lost tonight.

    but they just might not be abysmal and a lot of other teams are plumbing the depths, so do they end up in the nightmare scenario of missing the playoffs AND the bottom five?

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  142. I don't think bottom 5 is the target of this year's tank job. It's gotta be bottom 2 (arguably 3). 3-10 are a crap shoot. Maybe that even opens up the trade market for 1st round picks at the deadline. At any rate, I say go for broke.

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  143. Steen is way too pricey. This team needs a jay mcclement in the worst way. Fraser does nothing out there

    At what point (especially if the kids keep improving) do you consider moving hemsky? He'd bring an excellent defenseman in return.

    I'm enjoying the wins. I forgot what that felt like

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  144. but they just might not be abysmal and a lot of other teams are plumbing the depths, so do they end up in the nightmare scenario of missing the playoffs AND the bottom five?

    That can be mitigated by being sellers at the deadline and giving MBS some more draft picks.

    Right now the Oilers should be looking to pump and dump Vandermeer, Foster, Jones, and Brule. Maybe Smid. If Bulin keeps playing well, a team might even make a deal for him.

    Add in the fact that the Oilers can take on some salary to free up someone else's cap space and Tambo might be able to add two or three 2nd and 3rd round picks.

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  145. Keep Foster. He's got a heck of a shot and actually likes it here. I'd rather see Smid dealt as he's basically a walking injury waiting to happen.

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  146. @Ducey

    i can't see any team taking Bulin's contract. money, age, dui, g.a.a., m.v.p.,..

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  147. Hi, certain me on lisachu

    http://www.nilechat.net/phpBB2/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=194779 i-love-bg.de/forum/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=109300

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