The reason I mention Dombrowski today is a conversation he had with his chief scout (Gary Hughes) during the Florida Marlins expansion draft (this is over 20 years ago). I don't recall the exact exchange, but the draft (Colorado was the other team) became a fascinating item for draft nerds like me. The Rockies were selecting mlb veterans and getting everyone on their list, and the Martlins were selecting prospects straight out of Baseball America and they too were giddy with the haul.
Among their cherished possessions that day were Nigel Wilson, Jeff Conine and a fireballer left unprotected by Cincinnati (Trevor Hoffman). Midway through the draft, Dombrowski began selecting talent with big league experience. Hughes balked, suggesting there were still blue chip prospects available. From memory, Dombrowski said something like "I have to put a team on the field in April."
--
I think Oilers management might be a little too far in the "Gary Hughes" camp at this time. An NHL team that dives on purpose may not find itself able to recover for years afterward; reasons include not being able to attract free agents or grumbly veterans and on it goes.
There's also the theory about players learning how to lose. When the Cincinnati Reds were a powerhouse team under Sparky Anderson, they dealt with the lowly Padres for their best pitcher (Clay Kirby). The next season, the Reds kept on winning but Kirby's record improved only marginally. When they traded Kirby, Anderson--the most positive man this side of Kevin Prendergast--said something to the effect that he'd gotten so used to losing in San Diego.
I don't know if I buy all of that, but do think that losing for years and years in a row is a bad idea as a PLAN. The Edmonton Oilers have done extremely well at the draft table under Stu MacGregor; Eberle was #22, MP was #10 and only Hall has been a lottery pick under MBS.
I'm on board with flushing this season, the Hockey Gods have spoken with the recent trio of injuries to veterans. Having said that, I think it's important that Steve Tambellini begin to address long standing issues (PK, RH C) with an eye to the future. If he sees Ryan O'Marra as a future 3rd line checker, then he needs to insist that OM sees that playing time for an audition. If Devan Dubnyk is being considered for the starter of the future, then let him fly some sorties.
There's room for Gary Hughes vision, but a strong Dombrowski at the helm is vital.
The one player that I am concerned with "learning to lose" is Sam Gagner.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing to be a little concerned about is OKC. They've now lost 6 straight and have taken a nose dive since the call-ups (Omark, O'Marra, etc). It would be a real benefit for some of those kids to get a playoff run down there.
ReplyDeleteCan't imagine it's going to get much better with Petry up here for any significant time.
If they're not going to send Omark or O'Marra back down then they need to flush JFJ down there. At least he has a track record of producing at the AHL level and could help stem the tide
With Whitney out for awhile, I do not think tanking is an issue. I suspect that the Oil will be hard pressed to keep their heads above water. They are so thin on D, I expect everyone will adjust and ramp up their forecheck to put all the pressure possible on the remaining group
ReplyDeleteGilbert will get so worn down over the next month from playing 30 minutes a night
I don't believe this season means anything to the ultimate destiny of this team, other than positive arrows.
ReplyDeleteRe a team that never knew how to win - look no further than the 1992-2009 version of this selfsaid disorganization.
I get what you're saying LT, but at the same time, if Whitney's on the shelf for say 3 months, I hope we don't hear post-deadline that EDM could have moved Vandermeer for a decent pick, but didn't because their blueline was so thin.
ReplyDeleteOne of the biggest problems with our developing cluster is the lack of a stud D man. Don't get me wrong, one of Petry, Plante, or Marcinin could develop as such, but the pedigree is not there. At some point, I think Tambellini has to think about trading a significant asset to address this problem so the kids can grow up together and learn to win. I'm not talking about the usual junk we throw around here (Brule, Jones, Cogs, Smid) since they won't garner enough return. Even Penner/Hemsky likely won't have enough value to draw a bonafide top D prospect from another team's farm system since they are UFA's after their contracts. I think he needs to look at trading one of his prized forwards. If it was me, and we land a centreman with the lottery pick next year, I would consider trading Gagner for a stud D plus a veteran centremen (perhaps a RH centreman with good FO numbers). Gagner could get that return. It would be a tough trade to make, but for the right prospect, may do wonders for the future of this team.
ReplyDeleteA little outside the box on this Thursday morning.
The Whitney injury gives Tambellini the room to start addressing the weaknesses on the roster without fear of winning. I would like to see at least one issue (pk, 3rd line center, or whatever) addressed by the trade deadline. We should see more of DD as well.
ReplyDeleteI guess what we are saying is that it is time for ST4.0.
Ashley: Or, barring a miraculous revival in NJ, they could draft Adam Larsson at #2 or #3 and not have to give up the asset(s).
ReplyDeleteTambellini has two big poker chips to play in this rebuild and they are Hemsky and Penner. Ideally we'd be a playoff team next year and keep them both, but realistically their value will probably not be higher than it will be at the draft this year. The return he gets for one or both of those players will have a profound impact on the end result of this rebuild.
If it ever comes down to Penner or Hemsky I hope they keep Penner.
ReplyDeleteFor such a terrible player, half the rest of the league's fans sure seem to keep asking to trade their junk for him. :)
In my humble opinion, you use Penner + or Hemsky + to get whatever you don't get at the draft this year.
ReplyDeleteGet Larsson = target your #1 center via trade (assuming Landeskog can't play C and Nugent-Hopkins isn't the "big" center we want).
Get Couturier = target your stud D via trade. I keep harping on tryng to pry Cowen out of Ottawa since Murray still thinks that teams window for winning is open. It's not.
They can't tank forever. In my mind, with the cap space and the young developing talent they do have (Hall, Eberle, MPS, Gagner, Omark, Peckham, plus whatever first rounder we add this summer) coupled with the experienced NHL qualitty players on the roster (Hemsky, Penner, Horcoff, Whitney, Gilbert), if Tambellini was smart with his cap space and filled out the roster with decent vets on 1 or 2 year deals, they could (and should) be in a position to contend for a playoff berth next spring (2012).
ReplyDeleteI'd go so far as to say that such a plan should be an expectation. If they don't make the playoffs next spring (or, at the very least, aren't in the race down to the final couple games of the season), I'll be fully on board with the Fire Steve Tambellini movement.
Some people say you can't have your cake and eat it to. Well, I don't buy that in this case - developing players need not come at the cost of being on par with the NY Islanders for more than 2 seasons.
As for Sam Gagner - the kid is what, 7 months older than Eberle? Under no circumstances short of a ridiculous offer (i.e. Nashville says they'd take Gagner as a centerpiece in a trade for Shea Weber, and Weber's ready to sign a multi-year extension to be an Oiler) should trading him even be considered at this point. He's progressing as an NHL player. You move the guys who have stagnated and/or have lower ceilings (Brule and Cogliano, I'm looking in your direction), and at this point you do so for whatever return you can squeeze out of someone.
I've been harping on this for a couple years and even I'm tired of hearing myself say it but the management in charge of this team have absolutely NO history of building a winner at ANY level of hockey. And an 8 week run in 2006 doesn't trump 10 years of losing. No, I'm not worried about the players becoming used to losing it's the mis-management team that is killing my desire to watch games. A simply analogy... you buy a beautiful piece of property with an old shit house on that you will demolish. Do you hire the same guy that demolished the house to build the 10,000 sq. ft. mansion? Not me.
ReplyDeleteGagner is a bird in the hand, and a key part of the future. He has been given progressively tougher challenges each season and surviving.
ReplyDeleteHe is not a phenom. But the Sedins, Gilmour, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc etc did not have breakout years till 24 or 25 years of age. Some people keep forgetting how young Gagner is.
Millbury kept churning the young guys out by not recognizing when he had a good one. Always looking at the new shiny bird in the bush.
Plus, you have two potential dynamic wingers for Gagner in Hall and Paajarvi you will drive the defense back and create space for Gagner to do his thing.
Hemsky is the guy who really doesn't fit with this bunch. Hemsky was well-suited to MacT's talent starved teams. But he doesn't share the puck enough, nor shoot enough in a talent rich roster, and has shown no signs of changing his solo masterpieces to more collective play. He is still resisting adding chip-n-chase and give-and-go to his game.
There is a time and place and usefulness to Hemsky's solo skills, and it is a great asset to stow away in his and the teams back pocket for when it is necessary.
But Hemsky has to change his game or else he is the guy who has to go for the centre or the D.
Do you hire the same guy that demolished the house to build the 10,000 sq. ft. mansion? Not me.
ReplyDeleteThey are are already on the rebuild. Foundation is in already.
If you look down the Hall, you can see the new MPS, Eberle, and Peckham look good. We are holding onto Gilbert, Whitney, Hemsky and Penner to see if they can worked into the new design.
We are just waiting for MBS to ship in some new building materials.
When our guys trade 'pieces' with other GM's, we take back the lesser ones.
ReplyDeleteWe are the ones getting schooled.
These idiots make stupid hockey decisions.
Nobody ever gets adequately replaced anymore.
Right now, they are nothing more than passengers on MacGregor's bus.
Apparently Rolston has cleared re-entry waivers.
ReplyDeleteWho is Captain Hazelwood in this scenario? Kevin Lowe?
ReplyDeleteKevin Lowe's Scorpio - on the bus taking the kids to the ice cream factory.
ReplyDeleteThere's no way this team should miss the playoffs in 2012 given the talent on the club and the surplus of players and cap room from which to trade or add to the exciting kids and still valuable vets.
ReplyDeleteJesus Christ, I see too many people buying into this rebuild thing without ever having a goal in sight.
If we miss the playoffs in 2012 then we've got one goddamn year left on the kids EL pacts.
That would be disgusting.
Bruce or either of the Dereks: can you log tonight's game in case I need it? I may be able to watch but I'm not entirely sure right now.
I'll check back in later
The non-contender die was cast this summer with the 33,43,22,18, and 26 being added to the team.
ReplyDelete3.0 also said publicly that this is early in the rebuild so temper the expectations.
The problem is that the rookies were very good and way ahead of everyone's expectation on the development curve.
If 10,83,6 stay healthy this was going to be tweener team.
If 10,83,6 stay healthy and v3.0 adds some NHL players instead of flotsam, this team could have challenged for a 9th or 8th in division.
Management decided not to make a run at being mediocre, and publicly declared it, so we're getting what was expected.
The loss of 83, 10, and now 6 make the road tougher, but in the end it ends up being stronger ammo for MBS.
Dennis is right. There is no reason for this team to miss the playoffs next year.
The holes are plain to see. The vault has value to trade to fill the holes.
If summer of 2010 was the year 3.0 tore down the old Oilers, then the summer of 2011 better be the year 4.0 built the new Oilers.
If glaring holes and indecision remain on this team, I too will be on the fire Tambellini band wagon.
I'm not there yet, because I think he expected the Oilers to be exactly what they are.
Agreed completely.
ReplyDeleteThe loss of Whitney and management's lack of desire to bring veterans over feels as if it's going to hurt the development of the rookies.
If everyone on the ice is lost, if we can't get a defenceman to make a break-out pass or get the puck out of our zone, or a centre who can get the puck off the draw - the only thing the rookies are going to learn is that they are losing. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle can get all the ice time they want, but if the puck is in our zone, they won't be working on the skills that they should be.
Incidentally, we need look no further than Florida, Atlanta, Long Island, and Phoenix if we want to find teams that learned to lose. Phoenix improved and Atlanta is getting better, but those were some dark years for those teams. Draft high and lose, ad nauseum.
ReplyDeleteWaiting until the draft to trade Hemsky and/or Penner is a nice idea but I think it ignores the reality that starters are not moved at the draft nearly as often as they are at the deadline. The value of these players will never be higher than with this year's trade deadline and IMO that is when Tambi needs to pull the trigger on dealing one or both of them.
ReplyDeleteI would vote for Hemsky being the one of the move and would definitely favour the Oil targeting a Top 4 minute eater on the blue who is physical and can play the role of a true shutdown guy. This leaves Petry and/or Larsson as the guy they look to groom as the PP QB. Washington could be a trade partner (good young D depth) as could Calgary (is now a good time to pry Regher out of their hands?)
HBomb,
ReplyDeleteIt's not to say Gagner's not progressing - it's that he is. Means he has some value. If you need something you don't have, one way to get it is to find a trade, and if it's something good you want, ie. not AHL journeymen, well then you might have to pay with a face card.
Everyone thinks Boston was so smart turning out Kessel for one and now possibly two lottery picks. But they weren't lottery picks when Boston paid for them, and Phil Kessel is bonafide, and was what, 21? That move took some balls to make on that side, and good for LeavesNation how it turned out too. Misery loves company, right?
Further to trading Hemsky at the deadline, I think Gagner's future is very much under review. Contractually, the team is tied to Horcoff as center #2 and quite possibly the org is more excited about the prospect of Pitlick and/or Coturier or RNH as the number one center down the road? If the Oil have the opportunity and do opt for the big center over Larsson (and to be fair both positions are needs), that should be a fairly significant tell on Gagner's longterm future. Ultimately, I think his tweener status will hurt his prospects with this club, and that's unfortunate as that's more about Horcoff's contract than it is Gagner's ability. The other option is Horcoff as a big ticket third liner and is that a realistic consideration?
ReplyDeleteWhy trade for a young D-man when we can just sign Luke Schenn to an offer sheet this summer?
ReplyDeleteAnyone have any empirical evidence of any teams that "learned to lose"? Sounds like a lot of BS to me.
ReplyDeleteI expect that the teams that "learned to lose" are the same teams that had lousy drafts, poor roster construction, and low payrolls.
For a bunch of guys that prefer math to the "saw him good" analysis, its a little surprising that such notions would get much play around here.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTaking my Mom for dinner and the game.
ReplyDeleteI expect a lot of scoring chances for the Avs, and a bunch for the Oilers too if they can make that first pass out of the zone.
77 can do it, not sure anyone else can. Saw 58 make a real nice one last game, hope its a sign of things to come. He'll be killed on SC and Corsi, its only his 2nd NHL game, but maybe he can help create some too.
I've seen more than one poster suggest 83 is the guy to trade and 27 is the one to keep (if you can only have one and also get your druthers).
PDO suggested the same thing to me in a text yesterday based simply on durability.
I think I'm starting to agree.
80 games of 27 > 60ish games of 83.
Would love to keep both, but this team needs a 1D and those two are the only ones who get one.
My guess is you'd have to overpay Penner again to keep him here.
ReplyDeleteHow high would people be willing to go?
I realize suggesting a Gagner trade would be sacrilege in these parts, but you have to give something good up to get something good. Yes Gagner is going to be a great player. However, it is human nature to overvalue those things we already own. I would submit that he is not going to be a 1C. I suspect he peaks out somewhere between 2C and 3C, but probably getting 2C minutes on this team. While everyone in the league (including us) is blue-skying his potential, that is the time to get maximum value for an asset.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with drafting a Dman is Dmen are risky. They're that volatile stock that gives you both ulcers and extreme pleasure. Many top projected Dmen never turn into much because of injury or poor translation of skill/effort into the show. Other great blueliners emerge as 23-24yo after being drafted in round 2-5 (although most blueliners drafted in those rounds never make it). If you trade for a stud 20yo Dman, you hve taken away 2 years of risk vs a drafted 18yo, and we can be that much more accurate in projecting his potential. Drafting a forward with a lottery pick is a much surer thing. I think the Oil should skip Larsson with the lotter pick, draft the best forward available, and then trade for the Dman they desire. At some point you get too front-heavy. Perhaps Cowen in OTT plus a veteran centreman in the summer for Gagner? Maybe we have to throw in CGY's 3rd rounder? That's not a terrible trade at all.
WG, durability was the deciding factor on Hemsky for me as well. There are cons to keeping Penner: we've got more depth at LW and he can look disinterested on occasion but given his health, size and the occasional Tim Kerr flashes that he shows, I think he's got the greater upside. He seems to fit in with the kids as well.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think trading Hemsky is a no-win situation for Tambi though, as the fanbase so overrates this player that reasonable return for value will not be perceived as reasonable return by the bulk of the fans on the homefront.
I can't see this group of players "learning to lose". I haven't seen this much compete from an Oilers squad since I don't know when.
ReplyDeleteTambellini and friends will have to be pretty bad to mess this thing up.
There is no reason for this team to miss the playoffs next year.
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing this bandied about pretty often and I can't agree with it fully.
Filling a few holes such as 3C and a defensive defenceman should put the Oilers into Columbus territory as one of the cluster of middling teams in the west that has a shot to make the playoffs.
These other teams like the Blues, Coyotes, Dallas, Colorado, Columbus have their fair share of talent as well and less holes to fill in the offseason.
Tambellini would have to have a phenomenal off season pulling out some major coups to make the Oilers a favourite to make the playoffs next year. I don't think he has it in him personally.
WG,
ReplyDeleteI think the other consideration w.r.t. Penner and Hemmer is that 83's skills are more replicated on this team. Yeah he's amazing with the puck and he's an absolute gamebreaker that can score on any given possession, but we kind of have those abilities in 14 and 4 too. His playmaking is replicated by 89.
But there is no one on the team or in the system that brings the board or crease presence that Penner brings. There are no other 30 goal scorers on the team. Throw in the fact he's a decent secondary face off option and I think I keep Penner too.
However, if we can keep both on reasonably valued contracts, my instinct is to try, barring a trade for Weber or perhaps Seabrook.
Dealing Hemsky however creates quite a void at RW unless one of 4, 27, or 91 can flip to the off. Would we be willing to find a value contract in say a UFA Ryder as a replacement?
I can see (and agree with) the arguments from people who want to trade 83 over 27. Yes, Penner is unique on this roster, but I would say the following:
ReplyDeleteHemsky wants to win. You hear him say it in every interview, and he has played like it this year. I want that one my team.
I will say Penner has been much more engaged recently (since 10 and 83 have been out), but I'm not so sure there is much sustain there. It just doesn't seem to be in his personality. For all his faults or underachieving as a player, you know what you get from 83 every night. Even if it's just 60 nights. Odds are of Penner's 80 games you're just as likely to get 60 games of effort.
That being said, I don't think you'd have to overpay either of them. They are both fall in the 20-30 goal; 65-75 point range, and if they see the team heading in the right direction, I think they can be had in the $5-5.5 range.
There's no way in hell you get Weber or Seabrook for Hemsky unless you sweeten the deal significantly. This is exactly what I'm talking about when it comes the fanbase overrating the trade value of this player / asset.
ReplyDeleteOiler fans see Hemsky as comparable to a Plekanec or Briere. To the rest of the league, he's Huselius or Kovalev.
Hemsky wants to win. You hear him say it in every interview, and he has played like it this year. I want that one my team.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm tired of these players who prefer losing, or the ones who are indifferent between wins and overtime losses.
I also think that we should target players who would, all things considered, prefer not to be injured.
@Lee, you're probably right.
ReplyDeletePrior to the start of last season, Matheson floated the idea of a trade--Hemmer for Dustin Brown. I remember typical Oilers fans considering this potential trade a travesty--potential highway robbery by the Kings at the time.
With the benefit of hindsight, the trade probably would have worked out very well given that our team completely lacks a top six or nine player with size, skill, and aggression. Brown like Penner is also a pretty robust player having not missed games due to injury for the past 4 seasons.
Oh and look, hindsight is wonderful... Brown has 16 goals, 33 points in 36 games this season. :p
Another way to go about things is to sign all veterans like the Flames, give up picks for depth and finish no better than Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteI believe not even a year ago the LT faithful were praising what Sutter was doing in Calgary. "What an astute move picking up Dawes."
How did that work out?
You can learn a great deal from others success and others failures but if you want to get anywhere in life you need to follow your own path and stick to it.
Stick to your guns Tamby.
As for Sam Gagner turning into the next Sedin/Gilmour because they didn't develop until later.. nobody was bringing up those kind of points in regards to Rob Schremp when he was here.
Remember when MAP was going to be as good as Parise?
Just give it time folks!
While we're at, let's target players who don't mind arctic weather and will play for a hometown discount. Wait a minute...
ReplyDeleteRemember when MAP was going to be as good as Parise?
ReplyDeleteNo.
Oh wait, are you doing that thing where you completely invent a position for your opponents, because you find ridiculing it to be easier than engaging in actual argument? Carry on, then.
Lee,
ReplyDeletewho said that Hemmer straight across for Weber would be the be all and end all of the deal? Where is the over-rating of which you speak? Or are you just playing to your own biases?
Traktor, I think you need a broader brush. That one seems to be fraying at the edges.
ReplyDeleteSteve Scrub:
ReplyDeleteLT told us all about the great things MAP was doing and it was only a matter of time before he joined Parise. You can even ask him.
Why is that relevant?
Look at the comments about Gagner. Only a matter of time before he joins Pat Kane.
Shit. Just saw 2 months or more for Whitney. Like a kick to the head with a frozen mukluk.
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing is we're not even are waiting for a power forward or a defensive player with intangibles.
ReplyDeleteWe're waiting for an undersized one-trick pony with skating and strength deficiencies.
LT loves his baseball references so I will ask this: is Gagner a 5 tool player/prospect?
His potential is a DH.
I'm not saying that Lowetide never, in a moment of ill-advised enthusiasm, predicted that Pouliot would turn out to be as good as Parise (though my guess is that he didn't, because in my experience virtually everything you say is a misrepresentation). I'm saying that that was never anything approximating the prevalent position.
ReplyDeleteThere have, however, been all sorts of people around here saying that Gagner would be as good as Patrick Kane, so I'll give you that one.
@Spoiler, my bad for misrepresenting your position. Were you advocating trading both Penner and Hemsky for one of either Weber or Seabrook? You'd mentioned you weren't keen on trading Penner, so I was operating under the assumption you were proposing some sort of Hemsky for Olympian D-Man swap.
ReplyDeleteYes and god forbid if one guy did it, then we must all believe the same thing.
ReplyDeleteApparently Penner played RW in Anaheim.
ReplyDeleteForwards can play off wing waaaaay easier than D playing off.
Some forwards prefer the off side so they are open better net angles when in a shooting position, and you can skate the puck out of the corner on the forehand, which is waaaay better for shooting and passing options.
Yes Lee, I was proposing some sort of Olympian F for Olympian D trade.
ReplyDeleteLee:
ReplyDeleteOiler fans see his trade value as Briere? You mean un-tradeable? Because that's what Daniel Briere is. Twice the cap hit for the same production.
Although I don't have a pipeline to other GM's thoughts, I would be shocked if they viewed Hemsky in the same light as Kovalev and Huselius (i.e. lazy and disinterested) because those are things he has never exhibited. You can pick apart his game (hangs on to the puck too much, doesn't shoot, etc) but you can't question his desire and jam.
Well, not TWICE the Cap Hit (Briere) but $6.5 for oft injured little guy is not a contract anyone will take otherwise it would have been done already.
ReplyDeleteI think 'learning to lose' is mildly boiled down to learning what level of compete, and accountability a winning team has versus a losing team.
ReplyDeleteI think thats solved by the GM getting a few vets to lead by example.
What I do know, is that this team going two months without Whitney, isn't going to instill some unshakeable sense of being complete losers to the kids.
I also know that the possibility of adding a guy like Eric Staal through the lottery, will infinitely affect this franchise future more than +/- 20 points in the 2010/11 standings.
"I think 'learning to lose' is mildly boiled down to learning what level of compete, and accountability a winning team has versus a losing team."
ReplyDeleteEdmonton had Horcoff, Moreau, Staois, Pisani and finished last in the league.
Not only that but guys like Nilsson, O'Sullivan, MAP ect never learned a thing about compete level and accountability.
There is no such thing as learning to lose. There might be a thing called losing confidence though and that is crippling and real.
SWE/CZE on TSN right now. Lander is #16, right?
ReplyDeleteIn the end it will probably come down to which of 83 and 27 is more willing to discuss re-signing.
ReplyDeleteAlso,
Fights over perceived trade value never have a winner because every trade situation is different for each team and each manger has his own motivations/pressures for the trade.
Hands up who *knew* you could get Heatley for Mihalak? (While dumping Cheechoo to boot!)
Who knew you could get Pronger for 5 (5!) Assets or even Brewer + a couple of pieces?
Which GM's are motivated to buy? What does 3.0 expect back?
If there is one thing we know about 3.0 its that he's really patient when it comes to trading players as witnessed by JDD on the roster this year forever while 3.0 was trying like hell to turn him into something...anything.
Showerhead, I could be wrong but I thought he was #10.
ReplyDeleteI know he's been discussed before but Ryan Parent is back on waivers...considering Whitney/Vandy injuries and not wanting to take anymore D away from OKC, does it not make sense to take a look? He may not be the shutdown guy of the future we desire, but he's young and cheap, what's the worse that could happen?
ReplyDeleteLearning to lose might be up for debate, but chronic losing does seem to breed a "Here we go again" mentality whenever anything bad happens in a game. (See Detroit Lions for example)
ReplyDeleteLearning to win is something a lot of the young guys need to start seeing.
If they could trade Hemsky for a mid round 1st and get a guy like Siemens to go along with a lottery center. That would be pretty cool.
And I realize saying they need to start attempting to win and then dealing off Hemsky in the next paragraph is counter-productive but whatever.
ReplyDeleteWell Lander wore 16 last year...
ReplyDeleteThanks guys, I can confirm he's #16. I have the game on in the background and it seems every time I look up someone has scored. I did follow Lander for one shift in the defensive zone and he could teach a few Oilers a thing or two when it comes to in-zone coverage.
ReplyDeleteAnd now he has taken a penalty. A goal here could send CZE to the 3rd period within one goal in a game they have no business being in.
WG, that is a good point - kind of like saying you knew Dion Phaneuf was worth Anton Babchuk and Tom Kostopoulos (and losing your job over).
ReplyDeleteI don't get jazzed on trade proposals because the players are not fixed quantities like gold or slaves and fetch different returns for different GMs.
As far as this season goes, man but it is a lost cause. And I think (surprise, surprise) that the GM has to wear the goathorns for leaving them in this vulnerable spot. No way the team has to be so reliant on three or four players to have any compete level. And I was never sold on the finish at the bottom mentality either (but if it yields another good player, good). This team should have aimed to finish as well as it could've with some middling contracts of short duration to reasonable players. Then in a couple of years it would be a contender, rather than being 5 years off. And I do think that is the "plan" which should get Toonces relieved of duty.
Briere lead the NHL in playoff scoring LAST season.
ReplyDeleteKristen Huselius has 109 G since 2006/07 and has never played less than 74GP. Hemsky has 70G over the same time period and has played 74GP or more in 1 of those seasons.
I think smart GMs value actual production as much or more than they do 'he tries hard' That argument to me is the equivalent of 'she's ugly but man is she a good conversationalist.' lol
I reiterate that Oiler fans seriously overestimate Hemsky's trade value on the open market though his contract is certainly one thing the org has going for them with this particular player.
And for the record, I am certainly of the opinion that Hemsky is a far better player than Huselius BUT I get to watch Hemsky on a nightly basis (or at least when he's healthy enough to be in the lineup). I'm not sure a GM on an east coast squad that sees him far less frequently would hold his intangibles in equally high regard.
ReplyDeleteYes Lee, I was proposing some sort of Olympian F for Olympian D trade.
ReplyDeletePossibly a tad harder to make Canada's Olympic team on D than it is making the Czech national side on O?
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteHow is Cogliano's NHL career progressing?
ditto bar qu
ReplyDeleteHe's just a great shooter right?
ReplyDelete2007-08 .184
2008-09 .155
2009-10 .072
2010-11 .068
He's really progressing offensively:
07-08: 0.55 PPG
08-09: 0.46 PPG
09-10: 0.34 PPG
10-11: 0.26 PPG
As opposed to Gagner's progression:
07-08: 0.62 PPG
08-09: 0.54 PPG
09-10: 0.60 PPG
10-11: 0.66 PPG
Remember when MAP was going to be as good as Parise?
ReplyDeleteJust give it time folks!
This sort of a cheapshot from a guy in the last few months who has clamed with respect to Cogliano that a) he's "better than Gagner" (you can find this gem in the archives on BDHS) and b) is "bringing come Callaghan into his game".
Calling Gagner a "DH" when he's shown he can play a role on one of the top two lines and actually knows how to play in his own zone is ironic, considering that you'll defend Cogliano, who is about as one-tool a player as Schremp at this point - he can skate real fast, but beyond that, he's basically clueless in all three zones and all three phases of the game (ES/PP/PK). But man, can he ever skate!
More trolling from the master of that particular art. Run along now you, adults are trying to have a discussion here.
JDD with the shutout in the Spengler. He looked to be less of a circus act and more of an actual goalie as compared to the last time I saw him between the pipes.
ReplyDeleteGood positioning, less movement, using his size, yet still athletic when required.
Big test tomorrow versus a bunch of Russian ex-NHLers.
Maybe your eye for talent isn't so sharp after all?
ReplyDeleteWould be nice to see a JDD, DD tandem if the season is lost anyway.
ReplyDeleteMaybe JDD can even increase his trade value.
Lee: with regards to Gagner and Horcoff and only having room for one as the 2C, consider this idea - a sign of actual depth would be having players further down the depth chart than they would be on most teams, as opposed to the opposite.
ReplyDeleteFor example, right now, we're in a situation where whomever is the 1C on any given night (Horcoff or Gagner) would be widely considered a 2C. Say we were to draft Couturier and he turned into that point per game 1C in a couple of years - suddenly, if the salary structure allowed for it (which it would until some entry level deals started to come up for renewal), having a guy who is a capable 2C as the guy on the third line shows that the team has actual depth. With this in mind, and noting (as has been pointed out by others) that defensemen don't develop as quickly as forwards, wouldn't the best case scenario be to somehow get Couturier, trade from the team's position of strength (the wing) to land a defenseman in the 23-25 year old range to bolster the top four, and then go about filling out the rest of the roster?
And on that note, with respect to Gagner's future being under review (as mentioned by Ashley) - given that he just turned 21 this past August, I don't think that the Oil would be smart to actively shop him. But like I said above, if Gagner as the centerpiece of a deal could land you a Weber-type (and believe me, it would take more than just Gagner to land that class of defenseman), you look long and hard at it (I'd go as far as to say everyone not named Taylor Hall would be in place if such a scenario presented itself, but I'm not the GM, and who knows how much Tambellini values Eberle, Paajarvi, Hemsky, Gagner, etc.)
Anybody else a little underwhelmed by A. Larsson from watching him in the WJrs?
ReplyDeleteHe's a physical specimen for sure and a powerful skater, but isn't overly physical. The thing that worries me is his intensity and he doesn't engage opposing forwards in front of the net.
It doesn't look like he's getting any more ice time than any of the other Swedish D so it's not like his coach thinks he's their stud.
Am I missing something? Is he like Penner in that he looks like he could care less, but is actually getting things done out there?
Should be interesting to see him play against the big boys tomorrow.
If Weber really doesn't want to re-sign in NAS, it'll be interesting to see how they handle the situation.
ReplyDeleteIf they decide to deal him at the deadline or draft, will they be able to get more value than they'd get in RFA compensation if he's signed away (which you've gotta think would be at at least the 2 firsts, a second and a third level)?
We've seen from the Kessel deal that that can be a pretty rich haul if it's the right team's picks you're getting.
Or would they decide to just keep him whether he wants to be there or not by refusing to make a deal and matching any offer sheet?
I don't know if things are even likely to come to any of that in the Weber situation, but it would be a potentially important case study for Oilers fans to watch considering so many people are convinced our young guns are going to want out of here in a few years.
Trading Gagner away for anyone/anything this year (that is actually available - The isles won't give up their pick, and Seabrook isn't waering the copper and ble next year) is not a sound play.
ReplyDeleteGagner has shown growth and development in his game, and trading that away right now on dreams of drafting a #1 Center who may or may not be able to play that role within 3 years is foolish, especially if as many have suggested we have a legit shot at the second season next year.
The same argument can be made if you think that Pitlick could be that player - he's not there yet, and trading the guy who currently fills that role before there is a replacement is a bad plan unless you are planning to lose (see trading Stoll, not resigning reasoner, and dumping Brodziak).
The best move this team can make is to make sure that the AHL team gets into the second season and that the Oilers are in the draft lottery again.
For context:
ReplyDeleteGagner was drafted #6 and Couture was drafted #9 in the same year.
One was pushed into the deep end and the other's development was stunted in the minors.
Carry on.
Jordan: there's something to be said about not further eroding positions of weakness.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers aren't particularly deep on the blueline or at center, so trading from either of these two positions, unless it's a swap like the Whitney for Visnovsky trade, doesn't make sense.
Which brings us back to looking at the wingers and this whole "Penner or Hemsky" question. Both players may be a peak value at this trade deadline, with a full 1.25 years to go on each of their contracts, which are both of pretty good value in terms of cap hit.
I could live with one of them being dealt (my choice would be to keep Hemsky and deal Penner, but I can understand the argument for the other position) and the other being extended. Keeping both, if they could find a way to do it, would be great. If both were dealt in the name of the "rebuild" however, I'd be rather disgusted with v3.0 at that point.
Deano: I think you missed the "Bookie sarcasm symbol" after the phrase "development was stunted in the minors" with respect to Logan Couture. Am I right?
ReplyDeleteHBomb - yes you are.
ReplyDelete¡¡¡¡¡¡
They don't over-ripen in the minors.
I'm still not convinced that having gagner play in the NHL hurt his development. I might buy that playing with other NHL Rookies for several seasons did, or that playing on an unbalanced team that decided the best direction for the team was to tank for two of those seasons was not good for him. But simply saying "Gagner is a poorer player than he could be because he was rushed to the NHL. Just look at that Couture kid" without looking at the context of the teams that drafted them (especially when one was a Stanley favourite and the other was dealing with an incompetant GM) is asinine.
ReplyDeleteComing back to trading Penner and/or Hemmer for futures... I wouldn't make the call on either of these players this year unless another GM decides to channel Mike Milbury. It's far smarter to play out the string this year, see where we draft/who we draft, and make your extension offers to both players in the summer. Whoever you work something out with you keep. Then you can trade them in the offseason for a fair package (no fire sale prices here) or try to make a run with them, or trade them at the next deadline.
I might make an exception if we move Hemsky for Jordan Staal, if for no other reason than he fits a lot of needs well, and this team needs more Jordans...
The problem with a deal for Weber is that Nashville is likely going to want a rightie Dman back... and I doubt his name will be Foster, which means Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteGilbert would be a fairly attractive option for them because that's a contract they CAN afford and while he doesn't have Weber's shot or meanness, he is not without ability.
But it doesn't move our D depth ahead because we would be back to needing a top 4 guy and would probably still need to sign a Phillips type UFA in the off-season to cover the hole. It would almost certainly guarantee Petry playing next year, and probably Vandermeer getting re-signed (for cheap).
And that's not considering the picks or prospects or wingers we may also need to give up to make the deal.
Now a lot of this depends on how motivated Nashville is to trade Weber. If they feel there is no way they can afford him, and have to trade him, then all a team has to do is make the BEST offer, which is usually not the RIGHTLY VALUED offer.
Spoiler: Well I think even if they fail to get another D, Weber being a better defenseman should make it easier for his partner.
ReplyDeleteAny price NAS could not afford for Weber would get them at least 2 firsts, a second and a third (if not 4 firsts) if they choose to hold on to him and let the offer sheets roll in.
ReplyDeleteJordan - I have never said Gagner was a poorer player for being rushed.
ReplyDeleteI have said rushing kids is risky (ask Columbus and Phoenix) and also that I think Sam's dad deserves a lot of credit for it working out as well as it has for him.
In reference to your point about the Sharks being a Stanley Cup contender, I have also said that not having better options at the position is a reason to fire management, not a reason to promote kids.
I wanted to make the comparison going forward from here as I think that Couture was handled much better from an organizational standpoint.
Couture is in Gagner's graduating class not Eberle's, Paajarvi's or Hall's.
By the looks of it, Couture has arrived ready.
I wish I cheered for a team that was well run.
It's a damn shame that Vancouver didn't throw Daniel right into the deep end with the big club and pull Henrik along slowly in the minors.
ReplyDeleteWe could have had this debate settled once and for all.
FPB, agreed and Petry's development can be a game change too (or possible bait instead of Gilbert).
ReplyDeleteI'd deal our first rounder this year for Weber.
ReplyDeleteHe's guaranteed good, young, and at this point Couturier doesn't look like a world-beater. Larsson is having a disappointing season so far and has dropped on draft boards.
Weber, Whitney, Peckham... heck, even Gilbert. I'll take that and keep Smid on the third pairing where he can play mean hockey.
Gagner is doing a lot better than a most of guys in his graduating class.
ReplyDeleteHe would likely move up a couple of positions in a redraft.
Two years with MacT was a lot more productive than two more years with Dale Hunter would have been.
Bad Wojo, I think the trick there would be to deal the 2012 1st rounder.
ReplyDeleteYou don't trade the 1st for Weber without him signed to a new deal.
ReplyDeleteThat plus I doubt Edmonton is on Weber's list of probable destinations. It is sort of silly to be talking about him. Too early in the rebuild to expect that type of player to come to Edmonton. The organization and the team have to regain competitive credibility first.
Godot: Similar deals happened a lot.
ReplyDeleteMalone, Hartnell, Timmonen, all RFA's getting dealt and signed. (Altough not in the same conditions)
No one else was going to offer Malone that kind of money.
ReplyDeleteEdmonton ISN'T Philadelphia.
godot - that's a strawman.
ReplyDeleteCouture did not spend the last 2 years in the CHL.
The fact that the Oilers have had nowhere to develop talent because their AHL farm teams were so shitty is just another reason to condemn management.
Tired of excuses - especially self-inflicted ones.
The only guys ahead of Gagner that are doing worse are Hickey (a reach pick at the time) and Turris (kid pushed into the deep end whose father is not the Director of Player Development for an NHL team that Phoenix is trying to reclaim).
Thanks for helping make my argument.
"For context:
ReplyDeleteGagner was drafted #6 and Couture was drafted #9 in the same year."
For context:
Couture is 6' and Gagner is 5'10.
Sorry but was Gagner somehow going to grow 2 inches and learn to skate in the AHL?
Gagner's weaknesses aren't going to be rectified any time soon.
"Gagner is doing a lot better than a most of guys in his graduating class.
ReplyDeleteHe would likely move up a couple of positions in a redraft."
I would love to see your list.
Don't forget Sutter, Shattenkirk, Galiardi, Benn ect...
HBomb, I am full agreement with you on the roster buildout.
ReplyDeleteI would deal whichever of Penner & Hemsky commands the better return at this year's deadline for a tough, top 4 D man with high upside. Follow that up with a C stud in the draft and then deal the Penner or Hemsky player that's left over at next year's deadline for the player that best fits the youth core and meets the most critical need remaining at that time.
That leaves the Oil coming into 2012/2013 with the current youth core coming out of their sophomore slump years and we should be in good shape for the first of hopefully many long playoff runs.
A part of me hopes the Oil draft Larsson because I'd love to see us develop another true bluechip D-man ala Coffey or Lowe, but it does seem to make more sense for Tambi to deal the excess forward depth for proven D starters.
The question as always is whether Oil mgmt. is actually smart enough to pull that off without getting fleeced in the process.
If the Oil land Weber for anything less than Hall, Eberle or a Burke-ian bag of picks, I will build a shrine to Tambi in my basement.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, the problems with the Oilers aren't on the front end, and trading their centres (whether you like them or not) will not make the back end better.
ReplyDeleteI think Gagner, Horcoff, Hall, PRV, Eberle and Gilbert need to be untradeable and Penner and Hemsky only for the very best deal possible (and likely not even then). Which leaves UFA/RFA signings or giving little to get cap-strapped teams to give up quality pieces as salary dumps. Nashville will keep Weber, imo, so he is out. That leaves other teams like Van, Cal, SJ, NJD, ??? as trade/raid possibilities.
Who is there on D that could be had by a savvy GM to get?
Oh, wait ...
So I take it you think 14 is a horrible player too Traktor?
ReplyDelete13 is a way better skater and he's bigger than 14 too!!!!
Lee: There's Siemens, Hamilton and Murphy for that too.
ReplyDeleteWe could get a lower pick and still get a hot commodity
I like a Hemsky for Alzner or Carlson deal at the deadline. This recent losing skid has exposed Washington's lack of forward scoring depth.
ReplyDeleteWe could get a lower pick and still get a hot commodity
Given MBS's sterling track record to date, I wonder if the Oil would ever considering trading down in the draft to garner a starter and a lower round first from another team? Might not be a bad move in a draft that's supposedly lacking in quality on the topside?
Bar Qu, no worries. Gilbert IS untradeable.
ReplyDeleteI keed. I keed ;) He IS playing much better of late.
pdo:
ReplyDeleteStill think Horcoff is better than Richards and Marleau? lulz
Glass house or something like that..
Lee: The draft got a lot of hot kids early, than it falls off.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler:
ReplyDelete"(Hemsky) he's an absolute gamebreaker that can score on any given possession"
This is quite a stretch IMO. We may see this yet this year but to date...no way.
Hemsky has 3GW Gs over the last 3 seasons. That doesn't exactly scream 'game breaker' to me. Johan Franzen has 12 over the same period with comparable time lost to injury.
ReplyDeleteRealize Franzen plays on a far better team, but he is a RW that I would regard as a true game breaker.
And, this is where Tambi can go exceedingly wrong IMO, if he repeats Lowe's mistake by building around players like Hemsky. Deal this inconsistent, oft injured player to address our need for a Top 4 D Man and move on as an org.
Trak:
ReplyDeleteThis is why nobody takes you seriously.
I still think Horcoff is a better player than Marleau.
Not sure I remember saying Richards, but I'm sure it had a lot do with Horcoff @ 3.6 vs Richards @ 7.8 if I did.
What exactly does that have to do with what I said though? Right now you're saying Gagner is bad because he's small and doesn't skate well. Eberle is small and doesn't skate well... thus?
You're a cherry picking troll.
I was referring to his skills... on any given possession he is a threat to take it end to end. Wow... reading comprehension has become a real issue around here lately.
ReplyDeleteGodot... keep in mind Weber is RFA not UFA this summer.
And what the hell does game winning goals have to do with anything?
ReplyDeleteHemsky has 3GW Gs over the last 3 seasons. That doesn't exactly scream 'game breaker' to me. Johan Franzen has 12 over the same period with comparable time lost to injury.
ReplyDeleteGWGs are the most meaningless statistic out there. YOu might as well look at goals scored on Mondays.
Deano: I think you missed the "Bookie sarcasm symbol" after the phrase "development was stunted in the minors" with respect to Logan Couture. Am I right?
ReplyDeleteThat would be the Temherte Slaq or more simply ¡
That's too hard to say ¡
ReplyDeleteIf Weber opts for arbitration, then he is an UFA after next year.
ReplyDeleteSo he is "effectively" a UFA.
This is a great thread.
ReplyDeleteNot in terms of great content (although there is lots of that), but in terms of lots of different sub-threads, including hard feelings and bringing back stuff said years ago.
Wife and daughter both caught the bug going around so had to stay home and take care of snotty noses, aches, chills and coughs instead of take Mom to the game.
So Derek Stepan from the Rags thrusts himself into the rookie debate:
38pg 11g 12a 23pts
Good for second in the league in rookie scoring behind Couture's & Skinner's 26pts and just ahead of Eberle"s 22 and Hall"s 21.
I'm 38 years old and I cannot remember 1 Oiler in the top 5 in rookie scoring let alone 2.
Add to that Paajarvi's 14pts with much lesser line mates and Gagner's 23 points and that's a lot of young talent.
A lot.
Those guys won't get burnt out from losing this year, they have won all their life, a few years of sucking won't hurt them.
Traktor is right though. Losing confidence as a player is far worse than losing games playing on a team that isn't very good.
GWGs are the most meaningless statistic out there. YOu might as well look at goals scored on Mondays.
ReplyDeleteI thought plus/minus on every second Thursday was the most meaningless stat of all.
What about shooting % on astroturf?
ReplyDeleteSpoiler,
ReplyDeleteI can comprehend what you wrote. You said he (83)is an absolute game-breaker. I disagree with this comment. I agree he is a threat to go end to end and has sick skill.
I agree with the idea of your post from 12:10pm though (trading 83 vs 27) and that his skill set is duplicated.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteI can't figure out exactly why 21 year old who has scored:
37pg 18g 8a 26pts. 70.2ppg Sh% 15.4
Is so faaaaar superior to a 21 year old who:
35pg 9g 14a 23pts 65.4ppg SH% 12.2
You talk about these two 21 year old like one is the 2nd coming of Messier and the other is worse than Andrew Colgliano.
Why are you seeing one so good and the other so bad?
WG:
ReplyDeleteBecause he knows a lot of people that post here like 89.
I doubt he even believes half the shit he writes.
Yep, that's what you want. Kelly Buchberger giving Eberle tips on where to shoot from.
ReplyDelete300 fucking games and Smid still can't defend the back door.
ReplyDeleteAll kinds of bad happening on that one.
ReplyDeleteSmid with his 3rd of th year.
"I hate myself for loving you" on the PA after the goal. Pretty appropriate song for Oiler fans in general. Even more appropriate for Leaf fans.
ReplyDeleteNorthlands ice claims its 3rd victim.
ReplyDeleteJake... my definition of a gamebreaker is someone who can change the score on any puck possession. You say you are disagreeing but you're not putting forth any alternatives or any reasons against.
ReplyDeleteSidney Crosby. Alex Ovechkin. Steve Stamkos. Gamebreakers.
ReplyDeleteHemsky. Impressive dangles at full speed. Much of it amounting to not much on the score sheet.
Yeah, PPG players grow on trees.
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky. 465 GP. 372 PTS.
ReplyDelete... are you serious?
ReplyDeleteHow about this, since the lockout:
335GP 308P
How is what he did in 02-03 and 03-04 remotely relevant?
Coverage gaps seem to be an issue.
ReplyDeleteWow, nice giveaway Cogs.
ReplyDeleteThey aren't just gonna lose alot, they are gonna get blown out.
Holy F. This team is the best in the league at puck watching.
ReplyDeleteThis season is going to get ugly.
It's okay guys, 13 is adding some Callahan to his game.
ReplyDeleteYou made a blanket statement categorizing him as PPG player. If you assess him on the basis of his career to date, he's not. That's how it's relevant.
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky, RIGHT NOW, is a PPG player.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe this is even an argument because of what he did in his rookie season...
I could be wrong, but by Cogliano's look was he blaming Peckham for that one??
ReplyDeleteCogliano: the new Moreau.
ReplyDeleteEven more damning, let's assume the Oilers are paying Hemsky for a minimum 82 games worth or work. Well, he got 22 points last year. That's considerably off a PPG pace. Oh right, durability shouldn't factor into the equation. Right.
ReplyDeleteKatz is getting about $1.5M per night in gate receipts. Wonder how he'd feel if he paid that much every night to watch this KLowe shit saga? Groundhog Day KLowe style. Groundhog Day Klowe style. Groundhog Day Klowe style.
ReplyDeleteI'm about 60 seconds from deleting everything with the word Hemsky in it. Thought people might want to know.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteRIGHT NOW, Ales Hemsky is -1 with 0 points. That's the problem with cherry picking sample size. It's hard to know where to draw the line. lol
ReplyDeleteKatz is getting about $1.5M per night in gate receipts. Wonder how he'd feel if he paid that much every night to watch this KLowe shit saga?
ReplyDeleteThe Gross Domestic Product of Belgium is about $383 billion. I wonder how George Costanza would feel if he paid that much to go bungee jumping off the CN Tower?
RIGHT NOW, Ales Hemsky is -1 with 0 points. That's the problem with cherry picking sample size. It's hard to know where to draw the line. lol
ReplyDeleteSure, choosing the lockout as your cutoff is a little arbitrary. But can we agree that what Hemsky did in his rookie season isn't really reflective of his abilities today? And can we agree that what he did last year probably is quite relevant to his abilities today?
If we can agree on those two things, then we can agree that the appropriate sample should exclude his rookie season and include last season, which makes both of your offerings kind of dumb.
On a positive note, the Avs are demonstrating what a team can accomplish when it's absolutely stacked at forward. Good harbinger of days to come for the Oil?
ReplyDeleteSpoiler, do a poll and see how many think 83 is an absolute game-breaker.
ReplyDeleteThat was one painful period to watch. Is Penner hung over?
Spoiler, do a poll and see how many think 83 is an absolute game-breaker.
ReplyDeleteTo make that poll useful, there would need to be some definition of terms. Spoiler's offered a definition. In saying that he is incorrect that Hemsky is a "game-breaker", are you saying that he's using the wrong definition, or that he's applying the definition incorrectly?
Christ, people, some logical rigour, please.
Guys. Seriously. If you want to suggest that Hemsky is not a good player, I encourage you to start a blog. Call it Hemsky sucks AND blows or something.
ReplyDeleteEnough. Please.
SS:
ReplyDeleteIt's arbitrary, but I think it represents when Hemsky became comfortable at this level. I'm iffy on using "prime" (he's a much better player now than he was in '05-'06)... but really you can go back at any point since the lockout and if Hemsky wasn't a PPG player, he was right there; 06-07 being the outlier.
Lee,
ReplyDeleteYou're in pretty deep.
Try digging up.
I'd like to think the Avs bode well for the Oilers future, but I remember that our team is run by morons and go make another drink.
ReplyDeleteSS, I can get onboard with what you're saying, if we can get onboard with the idea that GWGs might be a tad relevant to the discussion if we're discussing a players' impact as a gamebreaker (whatever the hell that means). For such a meaningless stat, it is interesting how many of the game's elite players dominate that particular metric.
ReplyDeleteNever thought I'd admit to this but I think this team actually misses Horcoff more than 83 at this point in time. Trade him.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteHe's not good.
HE SUCKS¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡
Stamkos sick goal on a penalty shot.
ReplyDeleteFor such a meaningless stat, it is interesting how many of the game's elite players dominate that particular metric.
ReplyDeleteIs that actually true? Are there players who consistently get a higher percentage of their team's game-winning goals than of their total goals? Are the players who consistently get less?
My hypothesis is that if you calculated those numbers, they'd be all over the map, with no clear patterns. I stand open to having my hypothesis disproved, as always.
I think Stamkos' penalty shot was disrespectful to Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens. You wouldn't see Crosby or Ovechkin doing that. What a jerk.
ReplyDeleteWhat's with all the panic? Sure we're getting beat 3-0 but we're not getting super outshot'd or beat up.
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky is not good at hockey¡
ReplyDeleteAndrew Cogliano is adding some Calahan to his game¡
Sam Gagner is a bust¡
Jason Strudwick is so good in the room he deserves to be on an NHL team¡
Did I miss anything?
I'm not sure how saying Hemsky is not Alex Ovechkin or a PPG player throughout his career is saying he's not a good player? Same goes for saying a lot of his dangles don't result in points. A fair amount do and the skillset is undeniable regardless of the end result.
ReplyDeleteThe current way GWG's are calculated makes them useless even in the spirit of what they're supposed to be anyway... if they followed what baseball did for game winning RBI's I'd be a lot more interested in them.
ReplyDeletePDO said:
ReplyDelete"I still think Horcoff is better than Marleau."
Wow.
Number of times Marleau has scored 25 goals: 7
Number of times Horcoff has scored 25 goals: 0
Marleau was born in 1979
Horcoff was born in 1978
Marleau has 722 career points
Horcoff has 389 career points
Keep digging
The Stamkos goal should have been voided.
ReplyDeleteHe just stops going forward.
PDO: lol. At least we don't have Pat Quinn thrusting the crazy train onto the 1line.
ReplyDeleteWG, your slam is no more original this time than it was the first time you used it against me. If you want your insults to be effective, try avoiding cliches. Actually, avoiding cliches is a good rule of thumb for life in general. :)
ReplyDeleteMy hypothesis is that if you calculated those numbers, they'd be all over the map, with no clear patterns. I stand open to having my hypothesis disproved, as always.
ReplyDeleteNow I'm all curious, so I want to look at some case studies. Only problem is that I'm not aware of any quick way of seeing how many game-winning goals a team scored in a given year. My first thought was that it would be equal to the number of games that team won, but the shootout messes that up. Can anyone help me out?
If Omark gets the PB for turning over the puck which led to a bad chain events culminating with the puck in the Oil net, what does 13 get for assisting on Fleischmann's goal?
ReplyDeleteNext game, Stortini centers JFJ and Smac with Brule playing 3c?
@fpv
ReplyDeleteI agree that spin-o-rama shot where the guy stops skating should be void.
I'm just more concerned about the lack of respect Stamkos and the Lightning are showing the game. I thought they were better then that.
Trak:
ReplyDelete#1) There's two ends of the ice.
#2) Joe Thornton is responsible for a lot of that offense.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDid I miss someting? Is this whack off night at the OK Corral?
ReplyDeleteSOME OF US THINK HEMSKY IS A BAD BAD MAN!
There. Can we move along now?
Sam Gagner isn't bust.
ReplyDeleteHe is just getting outscored by Rob Schremp, that's all.
While the Stamkos goal was creative it was borderline illegal. He was very close to stopping himself and the puck to be able to raise it on the backhand.
ReplyDeleteI believe the rule is it must be a continuous motion?
Anything else good on TV tonight?
I hope the Oilers don't rush Hopkins. He seems like a guy that could use a couple of years in junior to beef up.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what the Oilers do with their top six in the next few seasons. They can't pay everyone. If the 3 rookies from this season live up to expectations there will be some tough choices to make.
Which five guys would everyone keep out of the following? What if Hall and Eberle demand raises such that the Oilers can only keep four of these guys? Who gets walking papers?
Horcoff, Gagner, Hemsky, Penner, Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/careerstats.htm?fetchKey=00002ALLAAHAll&sort=gameWinningGoals&viewName=careerLeadersAllSeasons
ReplyDeleteLooks like a pretty elite group to me.
So Marleau is a product of Thornton yet Horcoff does it all by himself haha good one pdo.
ReplyDeleteSo players that score the most goals also score the most game-winning goals? That's both thoroughly shocking, and completely irrelevant to my hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteSB: Some guys continue to go forward. I don't know why they don't apply the rule sometimes because it's a spin-o-rama.
ReplyDeleteIf you check out other spin goals like Blake, PMB and Grabovski, they all either continue forward or are impeded by the goalie to do so.
Absolutely not the case with Stamkos.
BLAMMO. Traktor plays the Schremp card. Collect 200 bucks and pass GO.
ReplyDeleteBOOOYAA
Smarmy:
ReplyDeleteLOL
The GWG thing of Hemsky is even more irrelevant due to the fact he's a passer.
ReplyDeletePassing to a guy with an empty net is the same as a goal.
He does that a lot.
So players that score the most goals also score the most game-winning goals? That's both thoroughly shocking, and completely irrelevant to my hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteTo follow up on that, in case you (Lee) are being genuinely dense rather than disingenuous, what do you think that list would look like if we looked at the career leaders in goals scored on the first and third Tuesdays of a month?
(I'll give you a clue: it would be "a pretty elite group".)
Sam Gagner is a bad, bad man¡
ReplyDeleteWhat a pass.
Belgium would have gotten the first *and* second assists.
ReplyDeleteGet yer shine box, Robbie!
ReplyDeleteWhy is he running out Petry and Strudwick?
ReplyDeleteRecipe for disaster
Foster also with an assist on the goal
ReplyDeleteThe next Orr?
Zach's a tough guy to scratch?
ReplyDeleteRenney sure makes it look easy.
Couldn't restrain yourself from another personal insult 'ey SS? That's pretty much par for the course for you.
ReplyDeleteHere's a thought...
Elite players (i.e gamebreakers) have something in common. They don't just try hard or make pretty dangles. They produce goals AND lots of them. Some of these are empty netters scored every 4th Wednesday, some are scored at a crucial point in a game that turns the tide in their team's favour. Some (not all) of that latter group will be categorized as GWGs.
Because these elite players are so productive in all facets of the game, they tend to dominate these career metrics. This seems to be borne out by the NHL's career stats for GWGs being inordinately dominated by Hall of Fame (i.e. elite)players.
So as much as we'd like to diminish it, Franzen scoring 12GWGs compared to Hemsky scoring 3GWGs over the same period actually means something. At the very least, it merits consideration if considering the merits of that player as a 'gamebreaker'
Cogliano with the soft hands.
ReplyDeleteLee:
ReplyDeleteFranzen: Goal scorer
Hemsky: Passer
Well Liles wont be going down in the crease for a while.
ReplyDeleteDouble entendre?
How about that finish by 13. Way to get the puck into the top half of the net.
ReplyDeleteThis is some interesting officiating....
Hemsky's not a game breaker because Cogliano can't finish.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers should call up Plante and Belle, and go
ReplyDeletePeckham, Gilbert
Smid, Plante
Belle, Petry
Smid needs to be paired with someone who can play a little defence.
They have lots of players they can waiver without caring if somebody takes them or not. MacIntyre, Jacques, Strudwick, Foster, Brule.
Because these elite players are so productive in all facets of the game, they tend to dominate these career metrics. This seems to be borne out by the NHL's career stats for GWGs being inordinately dominated by Hall of Fame (i.e. elite)players.
ReplyDeleteOf course elite players will dominate that stat, just like they'd dominate the first and third Tuesday stat. That doesn't make the stat relevant. The only thing that would make it relevant is if we needed it as a proxy for total goals, but since those stats are readily available, we don't.
On the personal attacks thing, here's our last interaction. Spot a single personal attack I made on you. For bonus points, spot the part where you implied that I should be gassed to death.