Tuesday, December 7, 2010

#14 Prospect: Chris VandeVelde

Winter 2009: #4
Summer 2010: #5

Winter 2010: #14

Chris Vande Velde took a tumble down the top 20 list this winter. It's happened before (Alex Plante), and with Vande Velde it has to do with adjustment to the pro's and how much offense he'll bring with him. It also has to do with Vande Velde's unique qualities (size, skill, grit) being duplicated all over Stu MacGregor's drafts and the depth of this year's list. Having said that, Chris Vande Velde does have some unique qualities.
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I don't have much pre-draft on Vande Velde:
  • Redline report: He has an incredibly long reach and is uncanny playing in traffic. When he got his skating legs going, he was nearly impossible to push off the puck, in an almost Keith Primeau–like fashion. Like Oshie, North Dakota has VandeVelde slated for the fall of 2006, and until then, he'll skate for the Lincoln Stars.
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Vande Velde is outstanding in the faceoff circle. He was well over 50% for most of his time in the NCAA and he was a go-to guy at UND. Desjardins NHLE's suggested he was going to have enough offensive to be considered for a skill line once in the show:
  • 06-07 (Age 19) 82gp, 2-4-6 (.073)
  • 07-08 (Age 20) 82gp, 12-13-25 (.305)
  • 08-09 (Age 21) 82gp, 14-13-27 (.329)
  • 09-10 (Age 22) 82gp, 13-21-34 (.415)
Riley Nash at 20 (13-26-39) and Shawn Horcoff at 20 (9-33-42) had strong NHLE's than VV, but he stayed longer in college and the offense finally came. Added to his secondary skills, a 35-point Vande Velde could be a useful NHL player.
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The Copper and Blue boys are doing fine work over here. The link takes you to an early season glance at AHL qualcomp. Vande Velde looks like he's facing mid-to-low level competition with linemates outside the top 6F's at that point in the season. Based on reports elsewhere, VV seems to be on a checking line.

Earlier in this series, I mentioned the Bubbling Under men who were in Winnipeg for a road trip to see the OKC Barons. This was their take on Vande Velde:
  • Chris VandeVelde was pegged as the de-facto checking center tonight, and was given the linemates befitting a player that the coaching staff wants in a defined role. He was able to saw-off the Moose top line of Hodgson-Volpatti-Shirokov with a little help from his friends. He showed good hustle, average speed and good skills in the faceoff dot. Although he appeared to defer to Milan Kytnar once in the third period when both young centers were on the ice together (a draw that Kytnar did win). Wasn’t shy in throwing his weight around in the corners either. Was the last Barons shooter in the SO and wasn’t able to impress, attempting to out-deke Lack only to run out of both time and space rather quickly. Wasn’t a good effort, especially with Reddox and Moran left on the bench.
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Vande Velde had a strong training camp, and I thought he played well enough that a return ticket this season for a cup of coffee was possible. However, he's not scoring at even strength. VV does have a PP goal and a shorty, but his EV numbers don't stand out even among the checkers:
  • Ben Ondrus 26gp, 3-3-6 -6
  • Matt Marquardt 16gp, 2-3-5 -3
  • Chris Vande Velde 25gp, 2-3-5 -7
  • Milan Kytnar 24gp, 1-3-4 -6
  • Greg Stewart 21gp, 2-1-3 -3
Kytnar is 2 years younger than Vande Velde. I understand it's a transition, but Riley Nash (26gp, 5-7-12 at EVs) started very slowly too. Vande Velde is older than most rookie AHL players; although he isn't expected to impact the scoring sheet, I think more was expected. Among AHL rookies, Jeff Petry (4-11-15) ranks 15th; Teemu Hartikainen ranks 33rd (7-4-11); Vande Velde is tied for 72nd. He may be another Colin McDonald (not enough offense).
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Vande Velde might benefit if the Oilers recall Ryan O'Marra. The top 4 C's (from what I can tell) are O'Marra, Moran, Vande Velde and Kytnar. The best wingers (Omark, Giroux, Reddox, McDonald) are in the top 6. VV did fill in with Reddox and Omark for a few games when O'Marra was hurt, an extended period in the spotlight might help him.

Otherwise, he's another tweener.

13 comments:

  1. I don't figure how you put VV ahead of O'marra given they're the same age.

    + O'Marra's outburst got him from 3rd/4th C in OKC to 1st. That's incredible from a guy almost considered dead.

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  2. Hey, I'm cheering for O'Marra. However, his role (3rd line checker) moving forward isn't the role he's in now. So, the points are nice but he's going to be a checker if he has an NHL career.

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  3. LT: Yeah sure, but O'Marra's played there last year and now he's further down the road. Rare are those guy who come up from the AHL where they were checkers (Or none at all) and are succesful. Still a nifty +12.

    I just doubt VV can progress. 23 Years old seems like the last year teams consider guys as ''prospects''

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  4. The point is that O'Marra has been in pro hockey for all these years. THIS is his best season. Vande Velde will of course need to adjust but there's still hope for him.

    O'Marra's had a nice season and I do hope he gets a recall. But his career path has been the wonky item, not Vande Velde's.

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  5. LT: Yeah but how many guys who are 3rd liners at 23 get on top after? Usually when they do they're too old and considered lifetime AHL'ers (Ala Corey Locke).

    Even if it's O'Marra's 3rd pro season he's still further in development. It's probably next year or nothing for both of them.

    Oh well I guess time will tell.

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  6. I think you have to give Vande Velde his entry level contract before deciding. jmo.

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  7. VV seems to have taken some time to develop in college. It might be a confidence thing. Give him some time.

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  8. Could he be more of a Pisani in the middle? College numbers don't seem to be too far off...

    - serum114

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  9. 10 out at least 8 weeks with MCL damage.

    Lottery time.

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  10. FPB

    Isn't it possible that VDV is developing more along the lines of a Paul Gaustad or David Steckel? College guys that need a couple of years in the minors to develop and become good defensive forwards?

    Seems O"Marra is on a similar path although he took the junior route, he looks to be to be a better 4th line option than Fraser at this point. Not sure who will be better, O'Marra or VDV.

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  11. I don't trust those Desjardins numbers for senior year. (Projecting 34 NHL points). Putting up a point/game in 4th year isn't impressive, particularly when he started college a year late. If you expect a player to bring offence to the NHL, he usually has to display it in his first 2 years of college, or absolutely demolish his last couple of years.

    It's nice that he has size, but if he doesn't start showing some offence this year, he's not going to get ahead of guys like Lander, Pitlick, and even O'Marra. Speaking of O'Marra, he's bigger, faster, and more physical than Fraser, and he even shoots right-handed.

    LT, you've mentioned, on several occasions, the promotion of the Cleary line that occurred many years ago. I'd like to promote the Reddox-O'Marra-Omark line, but I think we'll need to wait for Fraser and Jacques to get injured before that happens. Even then, they'd probably throw a wrench in it and call up Ondrus.

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  12. Oilfan: Seems to me Gaustad fits more with O'Marra than VDV.

    Well yeah if you look at it on the Steckel side of things, VDV might pop-up as a good 4th liner. I just think O'Marra above that now, that we can hope a 3rd liner out of him.

    (Fun fact Steckel was a 1st rounder!!!)

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  13. That`s a good point on experience versus age and we`ll need to see what VV can do with more icetime if it comes this year and if that doesn`t happen then considering his age we should have a good idea what to expect from him by the middle of the 2012 season.

    Also, ROM and McDonald have put their time in down in the A and both of them are now benefitting from playing on lines that feature combos that are either really good minor pros or guys who have fared well abroad: McD playing with Giroux-Moran and ROM with Omark-Reddox.

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