Jordan Eberle is more famous than his talent level warrants. That's not a criticism, it is a statement of fact. Eberle's pedigree is similar to Marc Pouliot's: later first round pick who has a chance to be a solid NHL player but isn't close to a lottery selection.Eberle's fame? Enormous. I'm not a believer in "big game" performance but this guy appears to be on a one man mission to make people with that belief look foolish. Jordan Eberle has scored some of the biggest goals in Canada's world junior history.
What does that tell us about him as an NHL player?
•Boxcars: 57gp, 50-56-106 (WHL); 11gp 6-8-14 (AHL)
•Shots: 24 (AHL)
•Plus Minus: +8 (WHL); -2 (AHL)
•Cap Hit: $1,158, 333 (including bonuses)
- What do these numbers tell us? Eberle's Desjardins NHLE for his WHL season is pretty much identical to his AHL stint. AHL: 82gp, 20-26-46; WHL: 22-24-46. Those are pretty close, and we can be reasonably certain that Eberle would post "in the range" if he received a lot of playing time in offensive situations. That is, however, not a certainty.
- How could these numbers be better? Eberle didn't rip up the WHL like we'd want him to, but we also have to remember that the WHL is an excellent league. He won the WHL MVP award and would have won the scoring championship if he'd played a little more (Eberle lost the scoring championship by one point to Brandon Kozun, who played 8 more games). And his team wasn't exactly the 1970 Montreal Junior Canadiens.
- What will we notice about him? Jordan Eberle has been touched with the "Steve Shutt 6th sense" around the net. It is hard to describe, but the guy always seems to be in the right place at the right time. I don't know if we can call it positioning, witchcraft or blind luck but it appears to be a skill that Eberle can duplicate against good competition (witness the AHL results and his WHC performance: 4gp, 1-3-4 +2).
- That's a little vague for a math guy. Well, I'm sorry but this fellow does appear to be more than the sum of his parts. He isn't fast, but he does have a quick release on his shot and is a great passer. He scored a goal at the Worlds that looked so simple you kind of wondered if the goalie had stumbled (point blank, went far side and hit the mark) or missed his net. The replay showed Eberle saw an opening and put it there. He made it look easy. If nothing else, allow me to quote Craig MacTavish on the subject of Jordan Eberle: "he's just a playmaking machine and he's going to be very good."
- Anything else? Louise is always talking to me about the big brains and this young man appears to be another in a long line of Oiler kids who probably did well with the nerds. Perhaps that is a reason for his exceptional touch around the net.
- If you like him so much, why are his numbers so low compared to Desjardins' NHLE? Well, I had to divide the playing time up among all of the kids. Add that to the fact that the Oiler kids are going to be hemmed in their own end for long stretches and the estimate looks reasonable. The Oilers aren't going to be a very good hockey team, and Eberle as a rookie is somewhat helpless to improve the result. He's going to have a long season unless the Oilers find some F's and D's with experience.
- Will he be a complete player? I believe he will, certainly in comparison to Hall or MPS (at least initially). At a very young age, Eberle has been exposed to some tremendous coaches and players, and as John Lennon said you are influenced the moment you open your ears. His intelligence married to what looks like a good work ethic should serve as fertile ground.
- How much PP time will he get? Less than Hall, less than MPS, maybe less than Omark. I think he might PK though. The roster (as currently constructed) will require a rookie or young pro to play a man short some nights and Eberle is a solid candidate in the group.
Prediction for 2010-11: 72gp, 12-17-29
He'll impress with his intelligence and skill
''How vague is this for a math guy''
ReplyDeleteLoL Maths are vague themselves.
Eberle was excellent in his AHL stint (How many 20 year old kids instantly became a top player in the AHL right off the bat?). If he outplays his competition at camp he should be on the team.
I think Eberle will surprise many on his speed alone. From my limited viewings he seemed to improve quite a bit year-over-year since his draft.
ReplyDeleteI think he'll be a player who makes his money on the PP. I have my doubts that he'll ever be a big ES player.
LT, you're a dink for projecting his points so low. I hate you.
ReplyDelete"Add that to the fact that the Oiler kids are going to be hemmed in their own end for long stretches ..."
ReplyDeleteYa, there's the rub. According to the Contrarian Goaltender the Rangers got their asses owned territorially during Sather's days from 1999-2002, apparently that's the only time we have a recording of that. This with a whack of future hall-of-famers on the roster.
Add up the goals from the forwards in D, look at the toughness on the team, look at the leadership ... the Rangers look great.
But look at the Ranger roster from those days ... just sit back and let it wash over you. You had to know that they were going to spend too much time in their own end. And that rarely ends well.
Bob Stauffer seems to have convinced a generation of Oiler fans that cherry picking is actually "creating stretch pass opportunities for the defensemen!". Or "Lupuling", the new, positive term.
These rookies are going to have to be awesome, plus the Oilers are going to need to have lady luck on their side, and reKhab (love that nick) is going to have to be healthy and eligible to play.
It could happen. Bu more likely this will end badly.
It could happen. Bu more likely this will end badly.
ReplyDeleteLol.
What needs to happen is a RE for the team as a whole.
35-40-5-5 ?
Oh, and Eberle is gonna be great. Not boys on the bus great, but, man did we luck out to get this guy, great.
ReplyDeleteAnd I love how you used him to redeem Pou too, LT.
I can't see Eberle getting less powerplay time than MPS, simply for the fact that MPS will likely see more EV time (as the most two-way ready of the rookies).
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteTotally off topic, LT, but I'm into baseball now.
ReplyDeleteYou were miles ahead of your time, brother. A lot of your commentary flies in the face of Bill James and his contemporaries from the era you watched baseball. You seem to have a knack for holding onto the right things from baseball folklore, and letting go of the myths.
With baseball some things have flipped from the 'folklore!' pile to the 'it really matters!' pile over the years since you stopped watching, all with just a minor adjustment to the execution of the math.
You'll be proven right on a couple of other things yet, Lain. But it will take a few years.
In short, colour me impressed.
And, in terms of baseball, how did Bruce get smarter than guys like Tyler and Sunny? I know that's offensive, but it's a good question.
I remember you and Bruce talking about playing dice baseball games as kids. APBA is one you've both mentioned. I've googled it, I know how it works. Was that the big game at the time, LT, or were there others?
In the words of The Tragically Hip:
"A generation so much dumber than it's parents
Came crashing through the window"
Or so it seems.
What I think I'm hearing is that they need another coach that knows how to play for the shootout..?
ReplyDeleteExcellent point, slipper.
ReplyDeleteAlso, they obviously they need a coach who knows how to win with the rope-a-dope strategy.
That's a tough thing to find though, good rope-a-dope coaches always fail miserably in their second year of employing rope-a-dope tactics. Something I call rope-a-dope coaching burnout. Or RAD-cb for short.
LT said...
ReplyDeleteJordan Eberle has been touched with the "Steve Shutt 6th sense" around the net.
Is that the same as the "Charlie Simmer 6th sense"?
...this young man appears to be another in a long line of Oiler kids who probably did well with the nerds.
ReplyDeleteOut of curiosity, do we have anything to base this on?
I'm wondering LT because we have an Andrew Cogliano who was able to get into college and then through two years, so should have some semblance of intelligence, but the other day your post pointed out that he had positioning issues, which to me is directly linked to the brain.
My parents told me Lupuling would make me go blind.
ReplyDeleteEberle is one of those guys you have to see play live. He's so sneaky, and shifty and quick.
ReplyDeleteI know he scored a few goals on the Blades last few years that made me do a double take.
Vic: APBA was the only one I remember, although there might have been something else out there. APBA at one time (this would be 35-45 years ago) used to run big ads in all of the sports magazines and must have had some impact. APBA leagues lasted decades. I still remember the Johnny Bench 1970 card, it was crazy after all the John Boccabella's. :-)
ReplyDeletespOILer: I have some fairly reliable information on some of the players and Cogliano is in fact a pretty smart fellow. As for his not being able to apply the lessons taught I have no idea.
It might be a case where he's putting to much pressure on himself, but after three seasons I don't think we can blame the Oilers for sending him along (if that is what they do).
I think this must have been one of the toughest REs for you to do, LT, because I think we can be far less certain about Eberle's role, line, and ice time than we were with the first two rooks. I think we're looking at a pretty flat bell curve here with a wide range of possible outcomes for Mr. Eberle.
ReplyDeletespOILer: I think they were about equal in terms of toughness. The hard part was giving minutes to Jacques and MacIntyre. :-)
ReplyDeleteSeriously, this team will probably have 20 forwards play for them at one time or another this season so it is really impossible to project. Grab the rookie cards (do people still pay for them?) and cheer like hell.
And let's keep the conversation civil, folks.
Just throw 'em over the boards and pray.
ReplyDeleteEmploying any other strategy could reinforce an "afraid to lose" mentality that could potentially ruin these kids.
And we definitely don't want THAT to happen again.
The Oilers could be this year's Cardiac Kids. Or they could fail miserably. Will be fun to watch.
ReplyDeleteFPB: I think Hall's Oilers will win about as many as Lecvalier's Lightning won when he was a rookie. Neither was/is a very good club.
ReplyDeleteLT: Damn. That's called being pessimist lol. 19-54-9-0. Let me doubt we'd do worst. At least we have some actual good players (Hemsky,Penner) something they didn't possess.
ReplyDeleteTBay's problems then were similar to the Oilers and their problems.
ReplyDelete1. 49 players
2. 6 goalies
3. 17 defensemen.
We'd have to be worst than last year. I believe that's going to be tough to do with Hesmky there. And less boat anchors.
ReplyDeleteYou've seen the D depth chart, right? The Oilers have more young forward and fewer veteran forwards, the blue is horrible in terms of depth and the goalie is buying Johnny Cash records.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't looking good.
speaking of hockey cards...where can you get them? i wanted to get into them last year again, but there wasn't a convenience store in my community that had them. sports stores and magazine shops didn't either. finally i found some at the saddledome, but they were 07/08.
ReplyDeleteit shocked me how hard it would be to get back into this childhood pastime.
LT: The surprises those kids can do. I'd be damned if we did worst than the sadsack team of last year. Vets ain't always positive D=. (Ethan, Steve, Sheldon...)
ReplyDeleteFPB: Oh they might win 25 games because of the new OT system but it is pretty clear that the think tank isn't gearing up for much this season.
ReplyDeleteUnless of course we see some movement this week in the D and F area.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI just thought I should point out we don't actually know how bad our defence will or won't be. Team defence is made up of many parts and ours is unpredictable at the moment. That isn't the same thing, yet, as bad.
First off, there is the entire Sheldon Souray issue to resolve.
Whitney, Gilbert
Souray, Smid (health issue)
Foster, Vandermeer
Peckham
isn't a bad defence, not great but not terrible. Maybe Souray is going to suck it up and come to camp and earn a trip out of town.
You have to assume that if we move Souray we are getting a defenceman back or planning to pick up one of the handful of UFA D who would improve the Oilers. That would include Mike Mottau, Freddie Meyer, etc.
Our goaltending is likely to be marginally better than last year. JDD and DD have more experience, Gerber can probably still be a decent NHL backup and Khabibulin could possibly surprise. I am thinking a league average save percentage isn't entirely out of the question.
There are also some useful veteran forwards still in play, Comrie, Asham, etc. More veteran forwards would definitely help our D. I still believe that we will see some additional veteran forwards signed before the season starts.
Perhaps most importantly, there is a significant coaching difference between Renney and his two predecessors that needs to be taken into account. Renney truly believes in a strategic possession game and we have some of the horses to execute his favorite strategy. It isn't by the way rope a dope. Simply put, if you've got the puck keep the puck. If you don't have the puck, go get the puck. His teams outshoot their opposition and they do it by being very aggressive in pursuing the puck and very conservative after they get it. Add that to his reputation for line matching and mixing up his lines and you are likely to see a signficant reduction in scoring opportunities surrendered.
I think we would probably give up somewhere between 240 and 250 goals against as the team is currently put together. With veteran help in the right places we might even manage to only give up 230 goals. As I said in a recent comment, 17-23rd place beckons but the playoofs aren't out of reach with the right late summer signings.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI just thought I should point out we don't actually know how bad our defence will or won't be. Team defence is made up of many parts and ours is unpredictable at the moment. That isn't the same thing, yet, as bad.
First off, there is the entire Sheldon Souray issue to resolve.
Whitney, Gilbert
Souray, Smid (health issue)
Foster, Vandermeer
Peckham
isn't a bad defence, not great but not terrible. Maybe Souray is going to suck it up and come to camp and earn a trip out of town.
You have to assume that if we move Souray we are getting a defenceman back or planning to pick up one of the handful of UFA D who would improve the Oilers. That would include Mike Mottau, Freddie Meyer, etc.
Our goaltending is likely to be marginally better than last year. JDD and DD have more experience, Gerber can probably still be a decent NHL backup and Khabibulin could possibly surprise. I am thinking a league average save percentage isn't entirely out of the question.
There are also some useful veteran forwards still in play, Comrie, Asham, etc. More veteran forwards would definitely help our D. I still believe that we will see some additional veteran forwards signed before the season starts.
Perhaps most importantly, there is a significant coaching difference between Renney and his two predecessors that needs to be taken into account. Renney truly believes in a strategic possession game and we have some of the horses to execute his favorite strategy. It isn't by the way rope a dope. Simply put, if you've got the puck keep the puck. If you don't have the puck, go get the puck. His teams outshoot their opposition and they do it by being very aggressive in pursuing the puck and very conservative after they get it. Add that to his reputation for line matching and mixing up his lines and you are likely to see a signficant reduction in scoring opportunities surrendered.
I think we would probably give up somewhere between 240 and 250 goals against as the team is currently put together. With veteran help in the right places we might even manage to only give up 230 goals. As I said in a recent comment, 17-23rd place beckons but the playoofs aren't out of reach with the right late summer signings.
sorry for double post, computer problem, brain problem, incompatible software
ReplyDeleteWait, wait... he didn't "rip up the WHL like we'd want him to".... he had the best statistical season in 10 years, factoring in GP and was named the best player in the CHL.
ReplyDeleteI think that's exactly what I'd hope for from a 22nd overall pick... normally that'd be wistfully optimistic.
I also think you're wholly underestimating the ice-time these players are going to get.
You alluded to it yourself - I don't think math fully describes this player. Though it was his 19 year old season, you failed to mention that he was named CHL player of the year. He didn't play on a great team either, not only did they not make the playoffs, they weren't even close (11 points out).
ReplyDeleteTalking about his ability to find the right spot on the ice, particularly near the net, you suggested that it might be due to luck. I find it hard to believe that some players are just lucky - I think in the long run, positive results will suggest otherwise. I don't think any trend that tends to repeat itself over time can be attributed to luck.
I appreciate the fact that you're merely generating interest in a season preview, but I think it's misleading to suggest that this player isn't overly skilled, and is just another late round pick.
I see in Jordan Eberle a future 1st line winger who will score 30-40 goals, 70-80 points, and wears the C on his sweater. At worst, I see him as a 25 goal, 60 point guy who plays on the 2nd line, plays a responsible 2-way game, and sports an A. I agree that he won't have a huge impact offensively in his rookie season, but I think that he's too talented, too hard working, and too resilient and driven to not be a huge success. This is a player who will be far more than the sum of his parts; parts which you seem to be underrating as it is. Many have noted that he's gained a lot of speed since last year, and has also packed on some muscle. (I heard 190 lbs - not bad for a 20 year who weighed closer to 170 when he was drafted).
Can you tell he's my favourite?
"I'm not a believer in 'big game' performance"
ReplyDeleteSince this is basically a mathematics blog, does it follow that you also don't believe in big game choking?
And if not, doesn't it also follow that you think hockey players, and by inference everyone else on earth simply performs in every function of life akin to a mechanical timepiece?
If you're a boxing fan, how would you describe Muhammed Ali's performance against George Foreman, when he threw away his carefully prepared game plan from the opening bell, preferring to stand toe to toe with the monster Foreman instead of his usual strategy of avoiding contact?
Big fight, big game, inspiration of an artist, it's all from exactly the same source - the human spirit. Or don't you believe in things like that either, and we're all simply a collection of organic machines?
You know what... I don't want to be a prick, but I re-read the article and it felt like one giant troll. Like Lowetide let his cousin Steve write this.
ReplyDelete"Jordan Eberle is more famous than his talent level warrants. That's not a criticism, it is a statement of fact."
No it isn't. It can't possible be a statement of fact, it's a subjective comment.
Eberle's pedigree is similar to Marc Pouliot's: later first round pick who has a chance to be a solid NHL player but isn't close to a lottery selection.
I disagree whole-heartedly.
At 20 years of age, Pouliot would be in a holding pattern without the same pedigree at the worlds stage or the AHL.
Eberle is undoubtedly a climber in an early 2008 re-draft.
Some outsiders, including THN, are calling him Calder material.
Eberle didn't rip up the WHL like we'd want him to
Again, I point out that nobody in the WHL has put up a PPG number better than Eberle's 1.86 since Pavl Brendl's ridiculous 1.97 17 year old season. That was 12 years ago.
Even Brendl's follow up to that season was inferior to Eberle's. That team had 5 PPG players and lost only 14 games all year.
I normally think your logic is impeccable... but this makes about as much sense as "I'm a math guy but Tom Gilbert was better in 08/09 than Souray in spite of all my favorite math saying otherwise".
Vic Said :
ReplyDelete"Ya, there's the rub. According to the Contrarian Goaltender the Rangers got their asses owned territorially during Sather's days from 1999-2002, apparently that's the only time we have a recording of that. This with a whack of future hall-of-famers on the roster."
I was thinking... zone time wouldn't be too hard to track, would it? Only do it for EV, and just have two stopwatches in your hands, one goes when the puck is in the Ozone, one in the Dzone. A total at the end of the night might good to look at, and we'd have a better idea of how it correlates to SC and Corsi.... I'm sure there'd be plenty of guys who would volunteer to do it, I'd do a game a week of it even.
Something to think about for next year.
I don't have a problem with the statement that Eberle is more famous than he warrents. Playing for Team Canada goes a long long way.
ReplyDeletePlenty of my hockey buddies know who he is soley because of that, and not because he's the CHL player of the year or set p/g records for the decade or whatever.
He's gonna struggle out of the gate, I don't think LT's projection is that out of line.
Julian: It's just a pet-peeve of mine. Saying something's a fact when it's clearly an opinion is... ugh. Making a big deal out of nothing.
ReplyDeleteThat assertion that he was expected to have done more, however, I can't stand for.
Not only is 1.86 the best PPG in a decade, it destroys every other WHL PPG in that time frame. Players have lead the league in that span being 0.25 behind, nobody comes with 0.15 of it.
Eberle was, for my money, the best player at the development camp in July. His game just seemed more mature than either Paajarvi's or Hall's, and the scoring chances just came easier for him. He was also the best player in the CHL and the World Juniors last year. He's done enough for me that I think you're underselling him LT. I'm betting that he puts up the best numbers of the Oiler rookies and I'd probably make him the pre-season favorite for the Calder.
ReplyDeleteLT: Very good series so far. I happen to think that being conservative with the boxcars for the kids makes a lot of sense. This is a team with some big holes in it (3C, goal, on the blue, lack of players to play the PK).
ReplyDeleteWith all the young kids who'll potentially be on the roster this fall, it's going to be another tough year to be a fan of this team. If the kids can survive, we may have a bright future.
But there's going to be a lot of hope being sold again this winter.
Mark-Ryan: I posted this over at ON to someone who had the same reaction as you (and others) here:
ReplyDeleteOne of the things "reasonable expectations" tries to do is take all of the bias we may have about a player out of the conversation. Park it, sort of.
Now I totally agree Eberle has been performing at a much higher level than an average 22OV pick, but that wasn't my point.
My point was that Eberle is more famous than his draft day number warrants and that he doesn't possess the kind of elite level skills one associates with a lottery pick (and he is as famous as the lottery picks in his season). I don't think anyone can dispute that, even if we agree that a re-draft would see him go much higher (and I think he would go higher).
Jordan Eberle is more famous than he deserves to be based on his draft number and scouting report. I don't really see a good argument against that statement.
Not that I'm a huge fan, but all indications out of Dallas are that Mike Ribeiro is still very available on the trading block for a top-4 D-Man who can quarterback their PP.
ReplyDeleteAnd the cap hits between him and Souray are pretty much a wash...
I of course realize that Souray has dug himself a hole deep enough to rule out a straight-up swap, but you'd think it could be at least a foundation for a bigger deal.
I disagree that Eberle gets stuck behind MPS in the batting order.. I remember talk about how MPS creates much of his offense off the rush and with speed.. I'd take Eberle over that skill set...
ReplyDeleteI also think that MPS may get a shot at the PK.. with those wheels (and greater than cogs def awareness, supposedly) he may be a wild card / ideal fit for a few Pk minutes...
Hahaha, "LT, you're a dink for projecting his points so low. I hate you." ... hehe ...
And,
linnaeus, you are blue sky-ing...
"I just thought I should point out we don't actually know how bad our defence will or won't be. Team defence is made up of many parts and ours is unpredictable at the moment. That isn't the same thing, yet, as bad."
Not yet..
I didn't know who Pavel Brendl was, so I looked him up on Wikipedia.
ReplyDeleteHowever, Brendl's talent never translated to stardom at the NHL level, where he managed only 22 points in 78 career games with the Philadelphia Flyers and Carolina Hurricanes. He played the 2005-06 season for the Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL and the San Antonio Rampage of the American Hockey League.
You all better hope Eberle is not the next Pavel Brendl.
Well you didn't know who Brendl was but I can assure you Eberle will not be him.
ReplyDeleteMy point was that Eberle is more famous than his draft day number warrants and that he doesn't possess the kind of elite level skills one associates with a lottery pick (and he is as famous as the lottery picks in his season).
ReplyDeleteI think a case could be made that his hands are elite level--it would be an easier case to make if we knew he had a one-timer, but I haven't seen him enough to know--as well as his sense and his desire.
That said, I don't think LT is far off here, people.
Eberle is a guy who could double LT's boxcar projections, or... he might not make the team and might spend most of the year in the A.
There's a couple of wild cards in this too---the early performance of Cogs and Brule, and one Linus Omark.
As LT points out, playing time is the crux.
Gotta play this guy on the PP and give him the close to the net role. He's golden there. Better than Comrie golden quite possibly (in that area). That'd be a big boost.
ReplyDeleteAlso - If he really did win the chance battle at last TC, I'm surprised you're not giving him more credit for it LT. I wouldn't pick my players that way, but many around here seem to.
You all better hope Eberle is not the next Pavel Brendl.
ReplyDeleteAt least Eberle actually likes playing the game of hockey, that's one thing he has over Brendl.
I always remember an old newpaper article I read that had a quote from Roenick, back in the days when he and Brendl were both playing for the Flyers...he said something to the effect that Brendl was always walking around like his day sucked, he never had a smile on his face.
In all and all I think Horcoff's PP time should be given to the rookies if we want best results possible. (From them)
ReplyDeleteFrom Puck Daddy :
ReplyDeleteThe Issue: The Tampa Bay Lightning have scored just six shorthanded goals in the last two seasons, worst in the NHL.
Was It Addressed? The Bolts' penalty killing wasn't terrible at 80.1 percent, but they had an inexplicable struggle in converting shorthanded chances.
Because the extra 1.5 points they could have gotten with triple the number of shorthanded goals last season (tied for 2nd in the league) is what was keeping them down in the east.
"Jordan Eberle is more famous than he deserves to be based on his draft number and scouting report. I don't really see a good argument against that statement."
ReplyDeleteThere's a great argument against this actually. Here it is.
Draft number: 22nd overall, 2008
Scouting report:
Negatives - On the small side, and not that fast for someone of his stature.
Positives - Slick hands. Nose for the net. Great on ice awareness, particularly in the offensive zone. Is equally adept at putting away scoring chances as he is at setting them up. Impeccable character. High maturity level and passion for the game. A born leader.
Here's where your argument is misleading. You suggest that his fame is overstated based on his draft number, as if his draft number is an indication of his current ability. To a large degree, it was an indication of his ability, AT THE TIME THAT HE WAS DRAFTED. Your argument is thus falacious, because it asserts that a measure of a player's past ability is also an accurate measure (or at least point of comparison) to his current ability.
Now perhaps EBerle still isn't a top-5 pick in a 2008 re-draft (So far, 2008 looks like the best draft year of the decade after the monster 2003 draft), but he's very close.
Stamkos and Doughty were top-2, and are the best players drafted this decade outside of Crosby, Malkin, and Oveckin, IMO. Tyler Myers went #12, and would certainly go 3rd overall in a re-draft. Zach Bogosian actually went 3rd overall, and some scouting services had him ahead of Doughty. Erik Karlsson looks like an incredible steal for Ottawa at #15, as does John Carlson at #27 for Washington. There's several other potentially good players in there including Pietrangelo, Schenn, Hodgson, etc.
Point is, in what was a very strong draft year, Eberle would not be drafted top-5, but top-10 might be realistic. In a weaker draft year (Hello 2007) he probably is a lottery pick; certainly a top-10 pick.
If I were to take draft position and a scouting report and try to make a highly subjective assertion based off of it in the opposite direction, then I might say that Gilbert Brule is a lot less famous than his scouting report and draft position would suggest. His accomplishments are vastly deficient as compared to what one might have expected based on his draft position and scouting report. I could bring up more examples like this one, and ones that are even more glaring (Patrik Stefan, Benoit Pouliot, Cam Barker, etc.) The point is that your 'statement of fact' is very misleading. I think it would be accurate to suggest that he is unusually famous for a player this young at that draft position, but not that he is more famous than he should be. Saying that inherently diminishes his accomplishments. The other side of the coin is that Jordan Eberle, a very young player who has a fairly high pick in 2008, has done everything to exceed any and all expectations of him that were established in June of 2008. He has excelled in every situation he's been placed in thus far in his career, much like Taylor Hall. The fact that you turned his fame into a negative is surprising, subjective, and inaccurate, as his fame is rooted in accomplishments, and accomplishments suggest future success.
He DESERVES most of the fame he has thus far based on his ACCOMPLISHMENTS, and that fame has no relation to his draft position or scouting report. If you want to discuss reasons why he may not become a star in the NHL based on his scouting report, that would be justified, but it would also be a completely different argument.
This is why I always hesitate to do reasonable expectations. :-)
ReplyDeleteLet me ask a question: the moment Jordan Eberle was drafted, did Pierre Mcguire scream "FINALLY!" and fall in a heap?
No. No he didn't. So, we can conclude that Eberle went where he was supposed to based on his scouting report.
Since that day, 14 of the 21 players drafted ahead of him have played in the NHL. It is something of an oversimplification, but you can see that Eberle was not a generational talent in his draft year.
He HAS played his 18 and 19 year old seasons in junior, giving him a chance to play in some famous tournaments. He has taken advantage of those things, and credit where due.
Having said that, I don't see (and have not seen) any evidence that he's a lottery calibre player. This leads me to believe that he is more famous than his talent level warrants. In fact, I believe it to be fact. I welcome more of the intelligent comments above (all excellent) but don't see a reason to change my original statement.
As an aside, I'll be thrilled if he does become Steve Shutt, or scores 35 goals this season. Absolutely thrilled.
But is that a reasonable expectation? No. No it is not.
Gawd I love semantics.
ReplyDeleteEberle being drafted:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-fQJyRpXAk
Watching Eberle and Hall at the WJCs, I don't see how anyone can possibly say that Hall is a superior player to Eberle right now. Yes, Hall is a great dangler, but those moves are not going to work on NHL defencemen until he learns to take them up a notch (which will take some time). Also, Hall did not appear to know how to use his teammates very well - a bit of a one-on-one kind of guy.
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary, Eberle has an elite hockey sense already and that will translate well to the NHL right now. Despite the fact that he is not a dangler like Hall, he put up incredible points at the WJCs despite not playing with top-level linemates. He knows how to use his linemates extremely well, even though they weren't nearly the scorers that he was. One of them was Brayden Schenn, a lottery pick.
As for size, every time Eberle went into the corner it looked like he was going to get crushed, and yet he came out of the corner with the puck every time. 0.6 seconds later he has passed the puck and 1.3 seconds later it was in the net. He's that smart. Eberle is the kind of player who doesn't have to touch the puck for more than a second. Again, that will translate well to the pro level.
If this is too much "saw him good" analysis, then let's just go with the numbers of the best WHL PPG in 12 years (on a poor team), and an NHLE of 46 points.
Hall is flashy but Eberle gets results. I would bet good money that Eberle's 5X5/60 will be well clear of Hall's this year.
Sask Oil: Agree completely with your last sentence.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's hard to compare Eberle to many top forwards simply because they never played in the WHL at his age.
ReplyDeleteMike Comrie is the only Oiler who comes to mind, he went to play for Kootenay after jumping through the van Ryn loophole. He was eight months older than Eberle and scored 79 points in 37 games (2.14 points-per-game) going +23. Kootenay looks to have been a decent team without Comrie, and an excellent team with him.
Would Comrie be a decent comparable for Eberle, LT?
As spOILer says, if he can score from a distance then he's probably going to be able to play a different game.
And for whatever reason Comrie was placed in the best possible circumstances in his rookie year (He got Smyth and Carter as wingers.
Weight played against the other team's best D, and usually against their best forwards, with Cleary and Zholtok iirc. Both undervalued players by Oiler fandom at the time.
Marchant-Moreau-Grier took up the rest of the tough minutes, and a lot of D zone work and PKing.
The 4th line of Murray-Horcoff-Laraques was just terrific, they outplayed their opposite numbers by a wide margin over the back half of the year, and ended in he offensive zone too.
Contrarian Goalie says that the Oilers were an above average team in terms of Zone Time in that era, though not elite. Corsi paints the same picture. So Comrie benefited from playing on a strong but unspectacular 5v5 team. He wasn't contributing that aspect as a rookie, he was just benefiting from it.
The Oilers had a pretty decent D that year too, though they did run into some D injury problems near the end of the year I think.
In those near-ideal circumstances Comrie scored 22 points in 41 games. So .54 points-per-game.
I don't think that the Oilers are strong enough this season to afford a rookie that type of opportunity for counting number success. Not without damaging the team's chances to win each night.
And if they do go crazy and try to pump one rookie ... every PR man in the world would recommend playing Hall with Hemsky, and building a tough minutes line around Penner and Horcoff to try to eat up the ice timeof the other team's best forwards. Probably some line built around Fraser and whatever wingers they can find who are hard on the puck to try and take some D-zone draw burden away.
That should get Hall the Calder, or close to it. It will probably squish the rest of rookies, though.
"Since that day, 14 of the 21 players drafted ahead of him have played in the NHL. It is something of an oversimplification, but you can see that Eberle was not a generational talent in his draft year."
ReplyDeleteIt's a huge oversimplification. Spending 2 years in junior is more indicative of his size than his talent level. Eberle was 5"10, 170lbs on draft day. I'm 5"10, 165 lbs (basically Eberle's draft day size) and let me tell you I'm pretty scrawny compared to NHLers. I'd get killed playing in the NHL. For comparison's sake, Taylor Hall, who's considered a bit small, weighed in at 185 lbs this year. Sam Gagner, also considered small, was 5"11 and 191 lbs on draft day.
Those 14 players drafted ahead of Eberle were much more mature physically. Stamkos was listed at 183 lbs on draft day and 196 now, Doughty was 213 on draft day and 219 now, Schenn at 209, etc. I think you get the point. They were all bigger, stronger more, and more NHL-ready physically. Eberle was never expected to jump straight to the NHL and the Oilers drafted him knowing full well that he would spend another year or two in junior developing into a man's body and since that time he has put on 15 lbs of muscle.
Considering his talent, his extra years in junior, short time in the AHL and how much ice time he'll get I think 12-17-29 is pretty low. I'd be surprised to see him with anything less than 35 pts and I wouldn't be surprised to see more like 45 points if he gets significant PP time.
LT: I see your point. I may have taken your original comment slightly out of context, as you probably didn't imply all of the things that I inferred from the statement.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, Eberle probably isn't a lottery player, and I don't think he'll dominate out of the gate because of his lack of size, strength, and supporting cast (other rookies), but I think that he'll be one of those players that just keeps getting better. You may not be underrating his skills, but I think you underrate the quality of his character and his sheer drive and determination. Being a math guy, I understand that character is difficult/impossible for you to quantify, but I think it's what truly separates guys like Joe Sakic from the rest of the pack. Sakic was picked 15th overall on draft day, behind a bunch of guys who had little or no success in their careers (Wayne McBean, Chris Joseph, Dave Archibald, Jayson More, Keith Osborne, Dean Chynoweth). I'm not saying that Eberle will be nearly as good as Joe Sakic, but I think they're similar with respect to their quiet intensity and great attitude. (Sakic is also 5'11 185, though he had a lot more speed). I think Eberle has enough skill to become a really good player when coupled with the intangibles he brings.
I think in his prime he'll be a
35 goal, 70 point guy, and a
team captain.
Peter: When you say "but I think you underrate the quality of his character and his sheer drive and determination" my response is "good, that's what I'm trying to do."
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to add all of the things I've learned as an Oiler fan about Eberle and his exceptional character, I'm trying to set a reasonable performance bar.
If he outruns the number, then we can be happy that the work ethic and skill (and luck, there's always some luck) paid off with a season beyond the expected.
Again, we're not talking "outer marker", we're talking "reasonable."
It's crazy that Dough(t)y was 213 at 18 on draft day and has only gained 6 pounds in the two years since - all in his second chin apparently.
ReplyDeleteI can't even imagine his ceiling if he ever gets in shape.
Eberly will make Hall look better then he is. This kid is a beauty and anyone who suggests other, just don't know hockey
ReplyDeleteThey say that because of the internet the world is changing faster than ever, but no matter how long I avoid it, it seems to stay exactly the same.
ReplyDeleteThank-YOU Anonymous, for reassuring me that I'm not alone in having been passed over by progress.
Am I the only person to ever have to opened a can of tuna fish wish nothing but a hammer and a phillips screwdriver? Let me tell you all, it freaking humbling.
And hats off to you, Vic. For never succumbing to the pressure to make friends and influence people.
ReplyDeleteA Comrie comp for Eberle... that's so damn reasonable it's just downright cruel. As one who's proudly displayed Jordan's pee-wee hockey card as my internet avatar steadfast for the past seven years, it's damn near Earth shattering.
If I were you I wouldn't open any packages post-marked from Stand-Off, AB you sonuvabitch!!1!
slipper: You kill me. :-)
ReplyDeleteslipper said:
ReplyDeleteAnd hats off to you, Vic. For never succumbing to the pressure to make friends and influence people.
Thank you slipper, it's always nice to see my art appreciated by someone who understands it.
Common: Fat is necessary for a healthy body.
ReplyDeleteI thought the line "Eberle didn't rip up the WHL like we'd want him to" was amusing. After the Steve Kelly's, Bosignore's and that ilk, a 22nd overall pick who wins the MVP of WHL is something to be happy about. Sure, hes not Crosby, but geez, who is?
ReplyDeleteHemmertime