This is a rather rare item: Geoff Paukovich scoring a goal in pro hockey. After 109 games thus far in his AHL career, the big forward has 10 goals. Paukovich is a physical player (just ask Robbie Bina and Kyle Greentree) but never did show enough to climb the depth chart. The fact he couldn't do it on what was an alarmingly horrible hockey team is certainly a reflection of where he is as a hockey player.
In today's Hockey World, Jim Matheson says "the Oilers won't be resigning Vlad Trukhno or Geoff Paukkanen off their farm team" which may mean Matty thinks he'd be a better player if he was from Finland. Trukhno isn't a surprise, and neither is O'Marra (the article suggests the Oilers may let him go as well). Colin McDonald appears to have survived the cut and will get a contract, owing it to better footspeed, a solid showing during his callup, and possibly a solid porn moustache (also at the NHL level).
I think Oklahoma City's AHL team is going to have a lot more of an "AHL veteran" look this coming season. Guys like Charles Linglet and Jake Taylor will be joined by other battle ready minor leaguers and the overall look of the club will more closely resemble the Manitoba Moose. It will probably mean more graduates spend extended periods in the ECHL, as the one thing Trukhno proved is that sometimes skill in the Q isn't enough to get by in the AHL. A kid like Phil Cornett might be headed to Stockton off the hop this fall.
Finally, with the exit of Paukovich we have another second round pick flatlining. Here's the score during the KP era:
- C Jarrett Stoll (#36, '02) 433 NHL games, a quality selection
- D Matt Greene (#44, '02) 308 NHL games, a top 4 defender
- L JF Jacques (#68, '03) 109 NHL games, team loves him
- G Jeff Deslauriers (#31, '02) 58 NHL games, was #1G last season
- D Taylor Chorney (#36, '05) 44 NHL games, pure chaos D
- R Colin McDonald (#51, '03) 2 NHL games, possible role player
- D Doug Lynch (#43, '01) 2 NHL games, lost career to injury
- C Ed Caron (#52, '01) 0 NHL games, lost career to indecision
- D Jeff Petry (#45, '06) 0 NHL games, pro career just starting
- L Geoff Paukovich (#57, '04) 0 NHL games, should find another team
- D Roman Tesliuk (#44, '04) 0 NHL games, never got started
How many of these picks would you take again in the same spot? 2? 3? Certainly not 5.
The only thing I slightly disagree with is keeping McDonald over O'Marra unless they think they will be able to sign Lander or Riley Nash, then I'd torch them all. The depth chart at center for OKC is looking pretty thin as it stands right now.
ReplyDeleteI guess keeping McDonald will be OK. There is a hockey player in there somewhere and he'll be a useful AHL 3rd line player, but I'm just not sure he'll get it done with the Oilers as a lot of time has passed by on him.
Danger Man: I can't find a list of AHL free agents, but that's the list we need to find for the Barons.
ReplyDeleteThey're going to sign some 25-30 year olds with AHL experience and then some more AHL players who don't qualify under the AHL veteran rule. They're going to look to Europe I'd bet and they're going to have much better blueline depth (way too many kids for the Falcons).
I think Prendergast's positive attitude finally cost him his job: he believed everybody was going to be a player.
It seems Matheson thinks Geoff will be playing for Lukko Rauma come fall.
ReplyDeleteWhen I look back, everything gets so clear!
Jarrett Stoll - Yes
Matt Greene - Yes
JF Jacques - Yes, I man really, that size, that speed
Jeff Deslauriers - No, esp not with the 31st
Taylor Chorney -No
Colin McDonald - Shudda waited til the 81st
Doug Lynch - Yes
Ed Caron - No
Jeff Petry - Oh yeah
Geoff Paukovich - No
Roman Tesliuk - I gues not, he seemed to have the tools tho'.
I'm surprised they resign Mcdonald at 24, while O'marra is pretty much at the same point, a 22, and he didn't stall like Mcdonald did.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone heard anything about how negotiations with our RFAs are going?
ReplyDeleteI don't expect them to break their backs getting Cogs done if they're looking to deal him, but shouldn't we have heard something about Gagner's negotiations by now?
And what kind of $s and years do people think he should/will get?
I think the Oilers will qualify Gagner and Cogliano.
ReplyDeleteFPB: O'Marra didn't stall, he backed off a cliff!
LT: Well he did improve from last year, and that's not a thing Mcdonald did in the last 2 years. With 2 years of difference i'd take a shot. Wouldn't you?
ReplyDeleteI mean i'm pretty sure Mcdonald won't have a career, might as well gamble.
So PK hit 2/11 or 18% for 2nd rounders.
ReplyDeleteSomeone (C&B?) wrote about the probability of a 2nd rounder becoming an Actual NHL Player, and it was about 25%.
So PK was a little below average, which is a high water mark in a franchise which has been so far below average on many thing (player development, pro scouting/trades) during Lowe era.
I always liked Darryl Sutter's strategy of trading middle/low 2nd round picks for real NHL players.
Trading a 25% chance for a 100% chance. Hell of a deal.
I guess he was selling hope. Perhaps the Oilers should get LaForge to trade their 2nd rounders.
You wouldn't want to do it every year, but if you can flip your expiring contracts into 2nd rounders and turn those into solid NHLers on a consistent basis, you will continually improve.
Bizarre that Sutter went insane this year and made so many horrid trades.
The higher the 2nd, the less likey you should be to trade it, depending on the draft year, but it can be a solid way to shore up the NHL roster.
FPB: Well McDonald has done some things in the minors. Here's what i said about both in January:
ReplyDeleteR Colin McDonald (41gp, 8-5-13 -11). McDonald got a taste of the NHL and the coaching staff had nice things to say about him. His AHL coach appears to rely on McDonald for tough assignments and his offense is a hair better this year. I think that'll be his problem--offense. The NHL portion of his contract is $550,000 and he's an RFA this summer.
C Ryan O'Marra (39gp, 8-4-12 -7). O'Marra punched his ticket to the show earlier this season and his minor league numbers have improved. We know from Daum's comments that this player is seen as a "3line checking C" moving forward and it is worth noting that his plus minus is among the better totals for Falcons' forwards this year. He has 2 shorthanded goals. An RFA this summer, ending his entry level deal ($1.2M).
AFTER that point in the season, these were the totals:
McDonald: 35gp, 4-6-10 -14
O'Marra: 35gp, 4-2-6 -12
God they were bad.
LT: Well, I think half the team got called up or decimated?¸
ReplyDeleteProbably what caused all the flim flam. Oh well, i'd still take O'marra, he got 2 years to beat that 25 points mark.
Actually, I wrote it down somewhere in here but the only Oilers contracts among F's that were not recalled to EDM were Trukhno, Paukovich and Lerg.
ReplyDeleteSo that was kind of a tell for those guys. Who knows, maybe they will sign O'Marra. If they don't he'll get a chance somewhere else.
Former first round picks get chance after chance after chance. Jesse Niinimaki got another job for crying out loud.
LT: Well, this year it looks like he was a player for Tampere. He might play in the NHL... at 28 or something.
ReplyDeleteLT - "I think Prendergast's positive attitude finally cost him his job: he believed everybody was going to be a player."
ReplyDeleteThat pretty much sums it up and yeah, they will have to find some AHL vets off of the scrap heap, just to simply plug some holes and not to expose the kids that will be down there, especially on the D. One Dman I was thinking they could recoup is Danny Syvret, I believe he is a UFA.
FPB: He was (Niinimaki) basically out of hockey for a time. 34 points in the SM-Liiga isn't mulch (he was 4th in team scoring) and he had a nice playoff.
ReplyDeleteYou never know, but first round picks have sustain in hockey.
LT: As a proud parent yourself I hope you don't mind a question for you and some of the other regular posters on this excellent site.
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I were blessed with our first child about 8 weeks ago. While unlikely to succeed; dad is going to try and shape his future by ensuring Oliver grows up an Oiler and Rider fan.
To that end I decided to plop down the small amount of cash for the season ticket registry (1600 on the list!) a few months ago. Up and coming team, new barn, etc. seemed like a good time to get in.
The stupid part of it is that we live in Vancouver and rarely get back to Edmonton more than 2 - 3 times a year.
My question is this. What are the chances that I would be able to offload the game tickets relatively easily for cost + possibly a small fee ($5?). The fee being to make up for the few dreg games (Minny on a Tuesday) that I will no doubt get stuck with from time to time. Don't care if I make money but just don't want to lose money while I cultivate what will hopefully be a neat gift to pass on to my son.
O'Marra has done diddly so i'm glad he's appears to be gone and the same for Trukhno, totally useless at the AHL level, no chance for an NHL career. too bad McDonald couldn't have been released as well, but i guess you can't release them all?
ReplyDeleteNelson88: Congrats! I can't really help you beyond saying that there were probably 20-25 times this season that tickets were offered to me for free. That would NOT have happened even a few years ago.
ReplyDeleteI have some contacts, etc but don't think my situation is too much different than most Edmontonians. Oilers tickets don't have the appeal they used to.
Having said that, good times are coming and unloading tickets when this team is humming is as easy as breathing.
Nelson88,
ReplyDeleteYou are probably 2-3 seasons from getting the tickets. They released 500 extra seats for seasons this year (instead of mini-packs, hedging against being horrible again), so the registry dropped quite a bit this year, but should firm up again.
By the time you get the tickets you should have little problem selling them, do it at the beginning of the season and sell them in chuncks (10 games is good)
The Oilers also put an inflated face value on season tickets (they have on mine for years), so if you get face value, you are doing well.
I love that the Oilers charge an administration fee for being on the waiting list.
I think LaForge spends the $$$ on hair dye for the soul patch on his chin.
LT/Woodguy: Thanks for the well wishes and the advice.
ReplyDeleteHere's to Sam, Magnus, Jordan and Tyler making it an easy decision in two years time.
Geoff P never had a hope. The difference between our farm and good ones (I believe) is that a guy like him would've been cut long ago. Or traded for a 7th.
ReplyDeleteO'Marra's a better hockey player than Colin Mac, and should be kept over him if you're keeping one.
"O'Marra's a better hockey player than Colin Mac"
ReplyDeleteMacdonald
226 AHL Games
.15 GPG
.30 PPG
O'Marra
175 AHL Games
.11 GPH
.24 PPG
And when JW ran the AHL QualComp for 08-09 Macdonald ranked pretty far ahead of O'Marra. Don't know about 09-10, but it looks like the org is a bit more enamoured with Macdonald despite the shitshow.
ReplyDelete"JF Jacques (#68, '03) 109 NHL games, team loves him"
ReplyDeleteThis blows me away. I'm sure he's a nice guy, I've never heard anyone say a bad word about him. And if he was playing 4th line minutes against 3rd and 4th line opponents ... probably his play wouldn't be noticably bad.
That's not the case though. Quinn played him way too far up the lineup game after game, no matter how disasterous the results scoring-chance-wise. Jebus, Pat just kept self inflicting pain, like an emo girl with a scripto knife.
I'll never understand that. And apparently when we were watching this unfold and thinking "WTF Pat? Is this a cry for help? Are you disoriented?". At the same time Tambellini was evaluating® and liked what he saw from big #22.
God save us.
"Macdonald
ReplyDelete226 AHL Games
.15 GPG
.30 PPG
O'Marra
175 AHL Games
.11 GPH
.24 PPG"
Ryan Potulny last year
0.23 GPG
0.50 PPG
Shawn Horcoff last year
0.16 GPG
0.46 PPG
Is Potulny even an actually NHL player? Is Horcoff?
Horcoff spent 26 games in the AHL and was over a point per game.
ReplyDeleteMrDebakey:
ReplyDeleteMcdonald's age those seasons:
22,23,24
O'marra's age those seasons:
20,21,22
Heh.
How about that bit in Matty's article about John Scott trying to finish his engineering degree.
ReplyDeleteIf the oilers still believe in smart guys....
i don't think age should matter if you are keeping one over the other with O'Marra and McDonald. if they HAVE to keep one, it really doesn't seem to matter which, but it seems they've made their choice and i'm ok with it. from what little i've seen from both, just their brief NHL games here, McDonald seemed to be the slightly better player. just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI have a little tidbit for the Horc heads too.
ReplyDeleteHe's training with Andy O'Brien right now who has also trained Crosby and A-Rod in the past. I know because I know some guys who work at the school that Andy helps runs in Calgary.
Sounds like Horc is pretty motivated and doing whatever it takes to get back.
"if you are keeping one over the other with O'Marra and McDonald...it really doesn't seem to matter which"
ReplyDeleteExactly
Though, I don't know why they wouldn't keep both.
Maybe, they'll offer O'Marra a AHL contract.
maybe they will, Mr D, but O'Marra is pretty far down the depth chart in the Oilers system. though not a scorer, if he's seen as a checker or plummer, he's still rated behind McDonald it would seem, and of course, Chris Vande Velde. givin the fact we already have 3rd and 4th line players here, and McD and VV waiting in the wings, there just doesn't seem to be much room left for O'Marra.
ReplyDeleteI think those NHL salaries for both players are going to factor heavily into the decision of who gets re-signed.
ReplyDeleteIf McDonald is going to be 75% of the player that O'Marra will be, for half the cost, then we should take McDonald. We've got a lot of overpays on this roster, and O'Marra would be the feather in this cap.
LT: In regards to the Manitoba Moose comment and them being an "older team", it's not really the case anymore. We had a lot of young twenty-somethings on the team last year in key places. Losing the likes of Jason Krog, Jason Jaffray and Mark Cullen hurt us a lot and forced the Canucks prospects into the spotlight. I expect them to get younger again this year with the infusion of Canucks first rounders Cody Hodgson and Jordan Schroeder, possibly Yann Sauve and Kevin Connaughton on defense as well. We're losing our experienced goalie in Cory Schneider also.
Long story short, I expect a long year on the farm in Manitoba.
Trak:
ReplyDeleteNice tidbit. Though, it shouldn't be surprising that Horcoff is working his ass off off the ice... he always has.
Might be interesting to see the reaction at HF when he has the C slapped on his chest in the near future... ;)
--
LT, you missed the two other points from that article..
#1) 31st OV for Versteeg... I personally wouldn't do it, mostly because Versteeg isn't worth $3.08, and outside of the obvious answer (guys who can actually play hockey at the NHL level), I don't really see him solving any problems on the roster.
If Chicago is looking to cut salary, you either make them pay futures to do it or you go after a guy who is a legit difference maker... Patrick Sharp would be my choice.
#2) Mitchell & Huskins for Souray. Huskins is what he is (a bottom pairing defenseman making a shade more than you would like), but as someone who rates Mitchell, I think that is a trade you have to do every day of the week.
Matty also threw out New Jersey as a possible destination, but doesn't list any players who could be coming back.
PDO: Yeah, I read them but didn't think they were realistic. If the Oilers trade a second round pick for Versteeg then they really don't know what they're doing. Their 2nd rd pick is basically a first rounder, and Versteeg isn't a guy you move for that kind of pick imo.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Souray deal, I think San Jose will shop the free agents after July 1. Suspect Tambellini badly wants to offload Souray before then.
re: JFJ...why can't we just sign colby armstrong in the off season and forget about trying to pretend JFJ will eventually be him?
ReplyDeletere: torrey mitchel...all flash with an injury history. he's never lit it up in the minors and hasn't come close in the show. mitchell and huskins for souray is just horrible. might as well trade him for a 5th and be done with it if that's what's being offered. mitchell was replaced in the lineup two years ago by a 80 year old claude lemieux.
i think it's more likely that we trade souray for picks (2nd and 3rd, maybe) and then trade those picks for something more in the first round.
does matheson have a clue anymore? i kinda feel like i could mail in his article and people wouldn't know the difference.
Jfry: I think Armstrong will have a few offers, most of them from teams that are closer to contention than the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteHow much would the Oilers have to overpay Armstrong for him to come aboard? Would a front loaded $10,000,000/4 years do it?
He's never brought big offense, so it's hard seeing him getting any more than that.
I'm imagining that's too much for a guy who doesn't bring much offense, looks to be a 3rd liner best suited to be playing against other 3rd liners, and is mostly know because he can lay devastating hits...
But hey, 2.5 for Armstrong is a lot better than 2.0 for Neil, right?
--
I really hope they're not dumb enough to move the 31st for Versteeg... but it wouldn't surprise me either.
I hope Souray is dealt before July 1... it's going to have a huge impact on next season, and the sooner it is dealt with, the better.
mitchell 5'11", 180lbs
ReplyDeleteversteeg 5'10", 180lbs
just can't see it happening for either guy if we're really concerned about the minute men.
LT: What are the odds of that pick being better than Kris Versteeg?
ReplyDeleteThey seem pretty slim to me.
Jffy:
ReplyDeleteThey also both play a lot bigger than their respective sizes... though I think Mitchell is a real 5'11", and Versteeg is no where near 5'10".
FPB:
That's not the question though. The question is what are the odds that the guy the Oilers take at 31 will be better w/r/t to his salary than Versteeg will be in 2-3 years.
@LT: i agree we'll never get armstrong, but JFJ is also never going to resemble the player we wish him to be (armstrong tree), so i think we should find someone else in that tree...last summer it was neil, as PDO pointed out.
ReplyDeletei think it's very likely that our 1 or 2 UFA signings this year, will be a "grit" guy with a bit of a track record...who unfortunately will be put too high in the line up by quinn'r.
For the record, I was dead serious about 2.5 for Armstrong being a lot better than 2.0 for Neil.... I think Armstrong can actually play hockey in a western playoff teams top 9.
ReplyDelete@PDO: i agree they both have a little grit, but i'd rather have comrie at 1.5 and mohaltra for 1.5 than versteeg for 3m.
ReplyDeleteif we got both those guys, the average size of the oiler's would be smaller than my old midget team. it would make taylor hall one of our biggest players. ugh.
I have zero interest in the Versteeg deal for the reasons LT pointed out... but I'd make that deal for Mitchell every day of the week.
ReplyDelete@PDO
ReplyDeletewhy so hot for mitchell?
FPB: What are the odds that the Oilers will be any good in the next two seasons? So, you've got Versteeg humming along in 10-11 and 11-12 but there aren't enough actual NHL players so the seasons are interesting but don't have post season value.
ReplyDeleteSo now he's 25 and already well paid, now you have to make a decision about dollars and free agency.
I'd take the pick.
Jfry:
ReplyDeleteSeen him good, mostly.
Tough on the puck, competes at both ends, nice wheels. Still only 25. Doesn't bring a lot of offense, but brings a skill set the Oilers don't have a lot of. Would also add some nice balance to the roster down the middle.
I doubt he's as good as I have him in my mind, but I could definitely see him having a nice year here.
Did you guys see that quote from Lowe in Staples column the other day? It was something like we're going to take all of Lucic's shifts on tape and show them to Jacques and whammo!
ReplyDeleteI mean really. I can say stuff like that because as a fan it is completely within my power to believe it is true.
It reminds me of the time Scotty Bowman was coaching the Blues in the 1970 SCF. Before the series, Bowman said "we've been having scrimmages and practising getting ready to play against Orr. Only problem is we don't have Orr."
Lucic isn't Orr, but he has established himself as a useful NHL player. Jacques isn't a useful player, and for some reason (as Vic mentioned above) Quinn felt such a need for a physical winger on the 1line he bought a fridge and put it on LW.
I'm astounded at how badly Jacques played last season, but do remember a buddy of mine with a hockey background laughing that the Oilers drafted another all hat no cattle coke machine.
My buddy saw him play for the Edmonton Roadrunners and told me Jacques had no ability to read a play or get himself in a good position.
I thought he was wrong, but that was like 6 years ago. Oh well. :-)
LT: In two years it's probable.
ReplyDeleteYou have to take for account that if you go now for a guy like Versteeg. He's not terribly overpaid at 3,0M$. And it's not like it matters if you get rid of guys like O's or Moreau.
Jacques is horrible, and I would pay Armstrong (or even Neil) 2.5 a season just to make sure I never had to watch Jacques try to play hockey at the NHL level again.
ReplyDeleteFunny how JFJ was praised in TC. Now everyone's taking it's turn to spit on his tomb.
ReplyDeleteIf only we could be rational. Like Habs fans. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: Heh, never said Habs fan are more rational (In fact theyr more insane than anyone i'd bet)
ReplyDeleteBut JFJ was a hole the size of an elephant and people fell blindly into it.
Well he certainly played poorly last season, but I don't know anyone (aside from the Oilers) who were touting him as a 1line player.
ReplyDeleteI think Jacques kind of personifies the Oilers COKE MACHINE era of drafting. They kept drafting size in the second and third rounds and they got burned over and over again.
That's why the Lander pick appeals to me. His scouting report reads like a guy who can play instead of a project.
I don't think that Jacques would be taking so much stick from the fans if he Quinn hadn't kept throwing him into the deep end of the pool, game after game. He wasn't just drowning, he was dragging others to the bottom of the pool with him most nights. You couldn't miss it.
ReplyDeleteHe may well have looked fine splashing about in the shallow end with Stortini. If that had been the case, there would be a fraction of the amount of discussion about this player.
@vic, i think jfj/brodz/storts would have made a great 8 minutes a night line. replace brodz with pouliot or ... he comes in as glennX-lite (in skill, not size).
ReplyDeletei also agree completely that the fan support swoon is as a result of Quinn making some weirdo line calls.
has there been much scuttlebutt in edmonton about the coaching situation?
I think most of the darts are being thrown at JFJ because he's a convenient excuse to blame Horcoff's poor play on.
ReplyDeleteJust saying.
Seriously you need a new f'n hobby.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Seidenberg signed a 4 yr deal with Boston. No dollars yet. May mean they don't expect to get Boychuk signed. Would still like to try and sign Boychuk. maybe get his rights in the possible swap with Boston of the picks.
ReplyDeleteThe problems that I see from Jacques are back surgeries and his lack of ability for handling the puck, like he can't even grasp the concept of off the glass and out. Like someone said during the season, he doesn't need a hockey stick to do what he does. To me there is only spot open for either Jacques or Stortini, not both, pick your poison.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have Hemsky, Eberle, and Brule fighting to the top two spots at right wing. Where exactly would Versteeg fill in. (And technically, O'Sullivan and Nilsson haven't been bought out yet.)
ReplyDelete$3 million would be better spent on a defenseman or on a checking centre (if it's Hall and not Seguin).
Versteeg can play left wing too, but same point applies...Penner, Paajarvi, and maybe Hall.
We don't need scorers. We need physical players who can play tough minutes.
"We don't need scorers."
ReplyDeleteEdmonton had only 1 player last year that scored more than 17 goals.
Penner is the only bona fide NHL player who's not named Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure there are one maybe two NHL defencemen, but out of the 4-5 candidates, no idea.
"We're set in goal".
Every single name other than the above is a prospect.
//Edmonton had only 1 player last year that scored more than 17 goals.//
ReplyDeleteSo you want Quinn to turn Eberle, Paajarvi, Hall/Seguin into checkers, because you signed Versteeg to score goals.
Top six candidates on the wing. Hemsky, Penner, Paajarvi, Eberle, maybe Hall, Cogliano, Brule (plus O'Sullivan and Nilsson if they are not bought out).
I like Versteeg, but I prefer we fill holes We need people to check so the prospects can be developed into top six roles.
Alan Ladd please, not Chris Versteeg.
Godot: Not to piss on your thing, but look at who played the toughs in Chicago. It's not Andrew Ladd.
ReplyDeleteVersteeg had similar stats with tougher competition and lesser teamates.
//Versteeg had similar stats with tougher competition and lesser teamates.//
ReplyDeleteHe's too expensive @ $3 million for a 3rd line role. We have lot of potential prospects for top 6 roles. We need affordable checkers.
The Oilers biggest problem has been the lack of a physical 3rd line capable of handling tough minutes and at 3rd line salaries.
My argument sucks badly at the current moment.
But I look at Penner, Paarjarvi, Hemsky, and Eberle, and maybe Hall, and I don't particularly see the money for a Versteeg.
I'd rather spend the money on a defenseman or on a physical 3rd line winger at a 3rd line salary.
Nothing against Versteeg as a player though. I just think the priority should be elsewhere.
but how thrilled would Versteeg be to come here to a 30th place team after potentially winning a stanley cup?
ReplyDeleteGodot: I'd take Versteeg over O'sullivan anyday.
ReplyDeleteTrade a 2nd rounder for Versteeg, and get something for O'sullivan.
Dug: How thrilled would be Ryan Malone?
You gave to PAY to be on the Oilers season ticket waiting list?
ReplyDelete