I know the Oilers will be busy this summer (hell, they were 30th with a cap team) but after last July-Aug there should be a "wait and see" attitude toward this management team.For those who don't remember, Steve Tambellini waited all summer so Dany Heatley could say no to the Edmonton Oilers. This continued a galling trend by the Oilers (dating back to pre-lockout) to leave the airdock out of balance and risk crashing on takeoff.
One year it was goaltending (and they made the finals); the next year it was defense (crashed) and now it is a combination of specifics (centers, defensemen) and structure (not enough NHL players).
Last summer, Steve Tambellini gave us his list:
- A #1 goalie
- A top 6F
- Players who were tough to play against
- Grit and size
And here's what he did:
- Signed Khabibulin
- Tried to deal for Heatley (and then signed Comrie)
- Dealt Brodziak for crimes real or imagined in the "tough to play against" department and attempted to sign Chris Neil.
- He (and possibly Quinn and other members of the organization) may have felt that Stone and Jacques gave them enough in the grit and size department. Either way, he did nothing to add actual NHL players in the "grit and size" category.
This summer the Oilers have holes everywhere. In goal, there are questions about Khabibulin's health and which of the kids to employ as a backup (Matty suggests the club will shop JDD because he's got a more proven track record); on the blue, there's Gilbert, Whitney, Smid and question marks; at center, Horcoff is apparently working out like a demon (and a healthy Horcoff is a valuable thing) plus Gagner will be another year older. The wings boast Penner, Hemsky and a bunch of hopefuls, also-rans and never-were's. Here's my shopping list for the Oildrop this summer.
- At least two of the small forwards will be gone (I'd guess Nilsson and O'Sullivan).
- Moreau is flushed.
- Sheldon Souray will be traded for a lesser defenseman.
- A veteran RH center comes to town and settles the middle up front.
- They bring in a big winger with some skill (possibly the new Isbister).
- They sign one of those monsters Stauffer is always talking about on his show.
- Oilers will deal one of the young goalies (I hope they keep DD).
When they break camp, I'd suggest the team depth chart might look like this:
- Goal: Khabibulin, Dubnyk
- Defense: Gilbert, Whitney, Souray-the-lesser, Smid, 2 mid level "Kurtis Foster-Marc Andre Bergeron" free agents, Peckham
- Center: Horcoff, Gagner, veteran RH center from the Boyd Gordon tree, Potulny
- Left Wing: Penner, Hall, Ryan Jones, Cogliano, Jacques or another Coke Machine, Omark
- Right Wing: Hemsky, Brule, Pouliot, Stortini
MPS and Eberle might push Omark or possibly the club trades Cogliano for a stronger 3rd line option. Pouliot might end up at center but I think he'll be top 12 if he stays. The depth chart above represents a lot of turnover (3 new D plus Peckham; 1 new center, 2 new LW's) and if anything this should be a conservative estimate.
The Oilers finished last with this bunch, they can finish last without them. Let's See Action! And please don't tell us how you'll address things in mid-season, because the new NHL isn't built for that sort of thing. Work toward roster balance. It's the right thing to do.
Novel Idea #2 (#1 was yesterdays wild suggestion about not trading Ales Hemsky): how about signing a reliable veteran NHL RW that can perhaps chip in some minutes against tough opposition.
ReplyDeleteI know of a guy coming off a couple bad years in terms of injuries that would be worth the risk and might be willing to sign a one-year deal here. His name is Fernando Pisani.
Deslaurier's value must be less than zero.
ReplyDeleteTrade him? Hmmm.
Sign Him & have him play for the Blazers
You know any team that picks him off waivers will finish worse than the Oilers.
after last July-Aug there should be a "wait and see" attitude toward this management team.
ReplyDeleteLT, you're a more patient man than me. I submit that we have waited and seen what this management team can do, and their results speak for themselves. If finishing dead last isn't grounds for removal, what is?
At the risk of sounding strident, in a salary cap world your sustainable competitive advantage must come from non-roster elements. Scouting, location, coaching, minor league development, and management, to name a few.
Is anyone convinced Steve Tambellini is the smartest
GM in the league? I'm not, and that's why wait and see isn't as compelling a mantra for this fan. I think if we wait, we'll simply see more train wreck.
Part of me has my doubts about Steve Tambellini, but another part of me says that some of the weird stuff that's gone on during his tenure (Heatley chase, Khabibulin signing) have been a product of Katz and Lowe getting a little too involved in the hockey operations side of things.
ReplyDeleteChris Neil getting offered 2 million a year is inexplicable any which way you look at it.
I think you're right, HBomb, it was Lowe's moves last summer. Last year I thought Tambellini was a puppet & he had to go with those dumbass moves & non-moves. But I really think he's trying to right the ship the right way. You'll notice that Matheson didn't say anything in today's Hockeyworld about us trading for Spezza. I think that was a trial balloon & the Oilers realized that people are okay with rebuilding the right way.
ReplyDeleteMatheson also had an interesting quote about Omark from MacT.
Nice post LT, and i agree with the hope that something happens. Take away any good trade by the Oil (in other words assume we really get nothing back for anyone) and you then have the UFA/reclamation signings. And assume like previous years we do not get the top guys, but may get the middle actual NHL guys who make us better but we slightly overpay.
ReplyDeleteguys I'd like to see targeted:
- Would love to get Boychuk on D, but i assume that even though he's an Edmonton kid he'll sign somewhere else for good money. Although i would still offer him a 4 year deal for at least $3 million a season.
- Chris Higgins: had a bad year, but he's fast, plays physical and at one point (only a few years back) was considered a 25-30 goal scorer. he may come cheap, and would be a solid 3rd line RW/LW that kills penalties and can play up in the lineup if needed. basically a younger version of Pisani. he would come at around $1 million.
- Dominic Moore: mentioned last year, but he's a solid two way centre who played well down the stretch for Montreal. Probably need a multi year deal, but a 2 or 3 year deal at $1.5 mill may get him and he fills a need for 3rd line centre and penalty killer.
- Nick Boynton: He played in the finals, but spent most of the year in the minors. He's a solid 5/6 dman with experience and will come cheap on a multi year deal. 2 yrs at $.750 or 1 yr at $1.0 mill may get it done, and he is a better version of Strudwick/Johnson.
- Adrian Aucoin: underrated dman who is solid both ways. Can play top 4 minutes, play the PP and is solid in the room. he's old (37) but is an improvement on what we have. May get him for a 2 year deal at $1.5/2 mill.
to sum up:
- Sign Boynton and Aucoin to fill out D. Sign Moore and Higgins to fill out Forwards. Cost per year = $5-6 million. Gives us actual NHL players, fills needs and stabilizes the team allowing us to take our time with the kids, while moving out the wasted roster spots (JFJ, Nilsson, Moreau. strudwick, chorney)
How about an actual roster that we don't all crack up at by the time we get down to the 3rd D pairing?
ReplyDeleteThat would be something.
Good to hear Horcoff is working out like crazy. I think hes gonna come back and have a big season next year. He has it in him and I know he hates being the fans whipping boy.
ReplyDeleteDBO
ReplyDeleteWould love to sign Boychuk. He and Smid would give the Oil a grit pairing. I would not talk about the money you suggest because he has done it ONCE. This year. But 4 years at $8 million sounds about right
We could not get Boynton or Au"groin" (as in he tears it alot) for the money you suggest.
I would prefer Boyd Gordon over Moore and what will be interesting is if Washington signs Gonchar... they might have real cap issues and a RFA offer might not be matched
Have always been intriqued by Higgins but he had 17 pts in 67 games.....POS had a better year than that and we are kicking his ass out of town
Solid prognasis LT. I agree with practically all of it. Although I still think Eberle and Paajarvi will make the club out of training camp.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I would be looking at re-signing Pisani. Without him the PK is looking very thin.
John Scott is the Stauffer project I would be looking at. He's essentially Strudwick with more of an intimidation factor.
How sad. This rabid fanbase looks forward to merely a complete roster for a change.
ReplyDeleteLots of spots to be filled between Edm and OKC.
and... Boychuk has 56 games of NHL experience total. Its generous to claim he has even done it once.
"Would love to get Boychuk on D, but i assume that even though he's an Edmonton kid he'll sign somewhere else for good money. Although i would still offer him a 4 year deal for at least $3 million a season."
ReplyDeleteThe last thing a rebuilding club should be doing is offering 4 year deals for a player that's had one good year. We need flexibility.
If we're going to sign some players wouldn't it make more sense to sign the guys that are still around July 20th to 1 year deals? Then when we're eventually pushed out of the playoff race when can send them away for picks and give Stu a couple more bullets and call up the Motin's of the world.
Those who make the argument that it was Lowe and Katz pulling the strings to get Heatley last summer are suggesting one other reason why Tambellini has to go. If he cannot articulate a vision for this team that explains why continually chasing a guy who doesn't say yes is a bad idea, then he is not a 'smart' hockey guy. Last summer was a resume for a Milbury style GM and he got the results his actions demonstrated. We will witness more Magoo-like behaviour this summer.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I hope I am wrong.
"Good to hear Horcoff is working out like crazy. I think hes gonna come back and have a big season next year. He has it in him and I know he hates being the fans whipping boy."
ReplyDeleteThe problem for Horcoff is the same problem that Schremp had in 2007. Sure he could probably do this in that if he was put in that position but there's players higher up the depth chart that can do this and that as well.
If he's looking to gain the fans heart I would suggest he stopped focusing on points and start playing like a player that is 6'1, 210 pounds. If he played with Mike Fisher or Ryan Kesler type edge he would hear much less criticism. Nobody is asking him to drop the mitts 20 times but getting outhit by Robert Nilsson just isn't acceptable.
I've always loved Johnny Boychuk and was happy to see he finally made it to the league this year and played well. I think he'd be the perfect signing for us to make as long as it's in the proper price range.
ReplyDeleteIf only we still had Huddy, ol' Johnny boy could be our next RH stay-at-home off the heap project very much reminiscent of Gator and Staios.
LT: I wholeheartedly agree with pretty much everything you said there. A 3C and 3D are what we need. A top-6 LW would be nice too, but I think there'll be enough competition there between Paajarvi, Omark, and possibly Hall, that it's the last priority.
ReplyDeleteHere's how I see our roster breaking down:
Hall/MPS-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Brule
Jones-Halpern-Pouliot
Potulny-Cogliano-Stortini
Pisani
Gilbert-Whitney
new Souray-Smid
Foster-Weaver
Peckham
Khabibulin-Dubnyk
Not a great team, but a team that is going in the right direction. With healthy Horcoff, Hemsky, and Khabibulin, and a bit more from Gagner and Brule, this team is competitive. They're bottom 10, but they'll give us some excitement. Chicago finished 20th in '07-'08, Kane and Toews' rookie year. That's about where I see this team finishing.
FREE AGENTS
ReplyDelete*Best players (per position) in CAPS
**less costly (and generally less effective) as you move rightward
F
Top 6:
C: PLEKANEC, LOMBARDI, Jokinen, Koivu, Wellwood
W: MARLEAU, KOVALCHUK, STEMPNIAK, WHITNEY, Kariya, Afinogenov, Ponikarovsky, Tanguay
Bottom 6:
3C: CULLEN, MOORE, BELANGER, MALHOTRA, Halpern, Morrison
W: ARMSTRONG, Cooke, Torres, Higgins, Burish, Nystrom, Tucker
D
2 way: HAMHUIS, MICHALEK, KUBINA, MARTIN, CLARK, Aucoin, Lydman, Morris, Leopold, Foster, Jones
defensive: VOLCHENKOV, TALLINDER, MITCHELL, BOYCHUK, Sutton, Eaton, Morrisonn, Weaver, Boynton
offensive: GONCHAR, Colaiacovo, Corvo, Bergeron
G: TURCO, NABOKOV, ELLIS, Mason, Niitymaki
Nobody is asking him to drop the mitts 20 times but getting outhit by Robert Nilsson just isn't acceptable.
ReplyDeleteI agree, but I also don't find it surprising that a guy who's had a couple of years of shoulder trouble is hesitant to deliver hits. Hopefully he's not playing to avoid the next injury, that would be unacceptable.
//Last summer, Steve Tambellini gave us his list:
ReplyDeleteA #1 goalie
A top 6F
Players who were tough to play against
Grit and size //
Chris Neil getting offered 2 million a year is inexplicable any which way you look at it.
Sorry, HBomb, "inexplicable" is not the right word. Neil would have definitely addressed the last two items on the wish list. I can understand why Tambellini would try to grab a player like that, although I agree it was likely an overpay. IIRC Ottawa wound up offering a fourth year to make sure he would stick around.
I'd say Ottawa got far more for their $2 MM on Neil (10-12-22, -1, 245 hits, 175 PiM) than the Oilers got from their $2 MM men Nilsson and Moreau. The 2009-10 Oilers would have been a better, more competitive team with Chris Neil.
Anyway I guess my point is that Tambellini can't win. He gets shit on for doing nothing, and he gets shit on for even thinking about doing something.
i think as a GM, when you look at your roster and see Pisani, Moreau, Nilsson and POS all making over 2m... it's not a huge leap to offer Neil 2m as well and think that he'll be the most useful of the bunch.
ReplyDeleteit's more money than i would have liked to spend, but he would have played higher in the lineup than any of these guys and might even have allowed us to waive JFJ.
Bruce: I'd say you make a very fair and well thought-out counterpoint.
ReplyDeleteNeil's actually a player I like - a guy who can play the enforcer role yet is able to give a team more than marginal minutes.
Is he worth 2 million per season? Maybe on a short term deal. Is he a better value for that sort of cap hit than Moreau or Nilsson? Without question.
I think the truly "inexplicable" part of it was, of all the other needs the team had last summer, that's the one they made a hard push to correct. Given Katz's apparent "personal relationship" with former Oiler tough-guy Georges Laraque, I still wonder if that one wasn't a call from higher-up as well.
It's funny and somewhat, we make fun of Tambellini for taking excessive time to "evaluate" the current state of the franchise, yet I'm having trouble gauging how he's done so far since I can't filter out what were his moves from what were Katz/Lowe "directives".
I think it is impossible to separate the decisions from one or another manager. Lowe has really mixed up the works by being so hands on imo, and Quinn's decision making--far from being an improvement over MacT--have approached Poe-like madness (Jacques on the 1line, etc).
ReplyDeleteMad dogs and Englishmen.
I think the truly "inexplicable" part of it was, of all the other needs the team had last summer, that's the one they made a hard push to correct.
ReplyDeleteA #1 goalie - Khabibulin July 1
A top 6F - Heatley June 30 (thru Sept 15, but whatever)
Players who were tough to play against - Neil July 1
Grit and size - Neil July 1
It's (very) easy to disagree with Who was targeted, but steps were made right off the hop to try to address all of those identified needs.
When Quinn had nothing but square pegs and all he needed was a couple of round pegs it drives anyone to Poe-like madness. He even tried to bash those square pegs to make a round peg, didn't work so well.
ReplyDeleteDBO,
ReplyDeleteI'd have no problem bring in Boynton and Aucoin on two year deals, it's not like we're gonna have our pick of the litter on July 1st and those do bring lots of NHL experience.
I'd consider just about anyone to keep a Peckham/Chorney 3rd pairing from logging regular minutes all year. there's also a lot more available in the dma UFA pool than up front, so I think any trade activity should be focused on shoring up the bottom six.
Bruce: I've got two words for you - center depth. Seems like, for the second straight summer, they completely missed the boat on an area that was screaming for improvement.
ReplyDeleteHe even tried to bash those square pegs to make a round peg, didn't work so well.
ReplyDeleteDangerMan: I'll say. Oilers had all of 5 forwards who mustered as many as 60 hits - 2 smurfs (Brule and Cogliano) and 3 fourth-liners (Jacques, Stortini and Moreau). The team desperately needed a couple of top 9 types who would play a hard game, so Quinn tried to make a guy who played a hard game (JFJ) into a top 9 type. The results speak for themselves.
I've got two words for you - center depth.
HBomb: Absolutely no argument from me. I was just using LT's list of what needs Tambellini did identify, not that gaping hole which he obviously should have. As much as a Chris Neil might have improved the team, a Marcel Goc could have done the same for a third the money.
Is JFJ on the top line crazier than Reddox on the top line? Or Toby in the PP rotation?
ReplyDeleteThe thing that I hated most about Quinn was how he continued to reward O'Sullivan for perimeter efforts. Its one thing to pump and dump a player but O'Sullivan got cherry PP minutes for the entire season and he was probably the least deserving of those minutes.
I'm almost positive O'Sullivan only got those minutes because he is Irish like Quinn.
I get that management was probably trying to get some interest out of POS but you need accountability and when guys like O'Sullivan are rewarded for not pulling on the rope its no surprise that there's only 2 or 3 players pulling by the end. The culture of this team will never change until management makes examples of players like O'Sullivan.
"Bruce: I've got two words for you - center depth."
ReplyDeleteWe could add 4 Blair Betts' and still have a glaring hole down the middle.
Hbomb: You're worried about Tambellini doing weird stuff and then suggest to keep Pisani?
ReplyDeleteDa fuck?
DBO: Well, Higgins physical? I'd say he's more yellow than Nilsson.
How come you cry for the Management to pass the broom on the old stuff, and still want them to resign Pisani? He sucked last year, is injury prone and going downwards, just no arrows going his way.
Pisani would be an excellent option, but I imagine a contending team will sign him or he'll get an invite from a team with a chance to win the Stanley.
ReplyDeleteUnless the Oilers have expressed interest in Pisani staying with the organizationa after retirement I don't know why he would return.
LT: Contending teams? 8 points and -16 in 40 games? I'd be damned if they can't find better.
ReplyDeleteTraktor: depth is the problem on this team.
ReplyDeletePenner-Horcoff-Hemsky could play power-vs-power and do well (as shown in 08-09), leaving Hall-Gagner-Eberle/MPS to chew up soft minutes as the 2nd line.
The problem comes after that. You need at least two lines that can play against tougher matchups, and with the current make-up of this team, Horpensky is an Easter Line (i.e. all the eggs in one basket in the form of the best two way C, RW and LW on the team).
This team needs more guys who have a) experience and b) the ability to play a 200-foot game.
LT: Yeah i know context always pop up for some of the favorites here.
ReplyDelete(Not bitching I know Fernando had terrible conditions)
But 8 points and -16 still suck ass no matter the context, it's not good in any stretch of the imagination.
FPB,
ReplyDeleteyou're not signing him for last year, you're signing him for next year. So you ask yourself,
What role can he fill? Kill a penalty, shelter/mentor some kids.
Can we use that? I think there's a few kids coming. Sure.
How much will it cost? <1M
Who cares what his boxcars were in 09-10? What can de do in 10-11, and what risk is there? Hell, if you're Really too deep (Hahahaha - wait, I think I'm crying...), drop him thru waivers to OKC.
Zero downside to this that I can see.
Where can we find 3 more warm bodies like Pisani up front and 2 more for the D?
ReplyDeleteMove them all out @ the deadline for a pick.
Alice: Same logic for Jason Strudwick. I don't think it would be too respectful to a guy like Pisani to send him to OKC say, a guy like Nash makes his way on the roster instead of him. What you risk is not trying to fill that hole properly with something that's going to be useful now, and for years to come, form your Pisani 2.0. If you fail to do so at the end of the summer no harm, but he certainly should not be the first option. He can always be a TC invite.
ReplyDeleteLets just be thankful Pisani got in his 400 games by the end of the season so he can collect his pension.
ReplyDeleteTalk of bringing him back though is just crazy.
But 8 points and -16 still suck ass no matter the context
ReplyDeleteYou actually have no justification for this assertion.
R O: Forgot common sense wasn't a strong suit.
ReplyDeleteSo what would you call shitty then? 4 points and -20?
It sucks ass, and context doesn't cover it up. That's all.
Horcoff hit parade since the lockout:
ReplyDelete05/06 - 17 -11th among forwards
06/07 - 36 - 11th
07/08 - 15 - 15th
08/09 - 30 - 11th
09/10 - 35 - 10th
It's obvious his should injuries have little to do with his lack of physical play since, given his team leading TOI, he doesn't hit a damn thing.
And, yes I know, the hits stat is flawed but you would think he and his team mates are on a level playing field.
FPB: Context DOES in fact explain much of Pisani's season. Imagine being in the Atlantic ocean for 20 hours trying to keep your ahead above water.
ReplyDeleteYour two linemates are being circled by sharks and you'll soon have to worry about blood in the water.
That was Pisani's season. You can't look at the boxcars without also looking at context. This isn't 1970.
Those who make the argument that it was Lowe and Katz pulling the strings to get Heatley last summer are suggesting one other reason why Tambellini has to go. If he cannot articulate a vision for this team that explains why continually chasing a guy who doesn't say yes is a bad idea, then he is not a 'smart' hockey guy.
ReplyDeletePrecisely. Look: if you're given the GM title but the guys upstairs are still pulling the strings, you either a) manage upwards effectively and call a halt to the gong show, or b) show some integrity and blow the whistle on the charade.
We don't have any evidence that it was Lowe himself who was so intent on Heatley last summer. Absent any concrete information to the contrary, it's reasonable to assume Tambellini was part of the conversation. Even if he was against it, his reasoning wasn't compelling enough to keep things from going pear-shaped.
Tambellini has not demonstrated the fitness required of an elite GM.
I suspect we're going to see another Who reference after training camp: teenage wasteland.
LT: So what? He did 0 to change a thing, he was PART of the guys circled by sharks, maybe the guys with him drowned the engine, but he didn't have a repair box or emergency kit with him. Sure he didn't have good teamates, but he didn't do a god damn thing to help himself out.
ReplyDeleteHe sucked just as badly as his teamates. Look at a guy like Joel Ward, he punched the Sharks a good couple of times and he got out alive with his flare, bringing in the cavalry.
Two leaders: both return to prominence in their homeland to lead their country out of a history of international marginalization, restoring national pride and unifying the country. Even going so far as to bring internaitonal sporting events to their homeland to show off how far they have progressed.
ReplyDeleteThe context: one does it with reconciliation and forgiveness, unifying across racial boundaries. The other using racial divisions to intensify nationalist feelings and prepare his country for war.
The context gives you the difference between Nelson Mandela and Adolf Hitler. (I'm paraphrasing lots of history, I admit, in the name of making a metaphor. Try not to read too much into my choice, it was the simplest one I could think of.)
I am not convinced that context completely exonerates Horcoff or Pisani, but at it at least needs to be considered, in the name of intellectual honesty.
And LT, I don't buy the blurring of management lines as clearing Tambellini for last summer either.
I'm not so sure we should be talking about competing at all. Next season is a development year, we arent making the playoffs anyhow, so lets get a good draft pick from it.
ReplyDeleteThe holes are obvious, but atleast we have a reason NOT to address them for once.
Why does my skin itch at the mere mention of Pouliot playing here another season. Does this guy have tabloid pictures of somebody in the organization? He has the physical resilience of a small bird. And is a constant reminder of what an awesome hockey player Zach Parise is.
ReplyDeleteDano: He'l never be a cool kid as long as he plays for the Devils tough :)
ReplyDeleteif khab goes down again this year, we need a NUMBER 2 GOALIE.
ReplyDeleteNO POS, MOREAU, AND strudwick.
sign 3 people on Peter's list.
Trade for crap for low picks. Bundle low picks to trade up. Sign old men short term. Aspire to 29th in 2011 and to contend in 2013.
ReplyDelete