Since we're focused on Chicagoland this week, I thought it might be interesting to have a quick look to see how well the club did at the draft table 2002-2007. In those seasons, the Hawks added a tremendous amount of exceptional talent. There were several top 10 selections: Cam Barker (#3, 2004); Jack Skille (#7, 2005); Jonathan Toews (#3, 2006) and Patrick Kane (#1, 2007).
There were also several picks 11-90 that paid off in spades: D Anton Babchuk (#21, 2002); D Duncan Keith (#54, 2002); Brent Seabrook (#14, 2003); Dave Bolland (#32, 2004).
The club also had at least their share of quality players from the 91-infinity pile. They included James Wisniewski (#156, 2002); Adam Burish (#282, 2002); Dustin Byfuglien (#245, 2003); Troy Brouwer (#214, 2004), D Niklas Hjalmarsson (#108, 2005).
They also picked a lot of kids who aren't in the NHL. They were either plugs, chose to play in Europe or landed somewhere in the middle. Some of those kids were pretty high picks: #52 and #59 picks in the deep 2003 draft; #41, #45 and #54 picks in 2004; #54 in 2005; #33 in 2006; #56 in 2007. They also got less than 100 cents on the dollar from guys like Barker and Skille in the first round.
I guess the lesson here is that picks outside the top 5 are like sorties: sometimes you come back and sometimes you don't come back. The Hawks had 27 picks inside the top 100 in those 6 seasons, meaning about 4 per year. The Oilers have added some good kids in the past few years (Gagner, MPS, Eberle), but this pick (#1 overall) has to be a Toews-Kane pick. It is the key to the cluster. Adding some picks for Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor might help too.
I think that might be what we see in the next couple of weeks. Adding picks, and moving up in the draft.
Off-topic somewhat: I don't know what was worse about the bit on "That's Hockey" that just aired:
ReplyDelete- The fact that Gino Reda called the Oilers' head scout "Stu Matheson".
OR
- The report that IF Tambellni and MBS disagree on who to pick, the final call goes to Tambellini.
Yeah, either player would be great, but with that in mind, shouldn't the call fall to the guy who has the most information? And why does the following scenario suddenly seem plausible?
MBS: "After careful evaluation, we want Seguin".
Tambellini: "Katz wants Hall to help sell tickets and play with Spezza once Ottawa says yes to our offer of Penner and Gagner - so pick him".
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
So who on the Oilers roster and outside of the current cluster has value to other teams where they might be willing to give up a first rounder?
ReplyDelete"Moving up" will obviously cost less, but the fundament problem I see the Oilers having is that they don't have the necessary surplus assets to make a lot of things happen.
It wouldn't surprise me if they traded Penner (I'm 100% certain he's not resigning), but would Tambo be able to get full value? What is full value? Late first rounder? And if that's the case, is it worth it?
I like the fact Tambellini has the final call. Based on his comments, I think he's leaning towards Hall.
ReplyDeleteHere's the quote in which he indicates he has the final hammer
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Taylor+Hall+pays+visit+Edmonton/3137183/story.html
“I totally trust Stu and his assessment for sure,” said Tambellini. “They’ve seen these players in hundreds of games over the last two or three years. Maybe I’ve seen them play a dozen. But I’m the one responsible (for the pick). If I’m not comfortable with it, at the end of the day it’s my call.”
Since I saw the comps of Hall VS Seguin (see previous thread):
ReplyDeleteSeguin = Legwand
Hall = Marleau
With that Comparable in mind, there is no question in my mind that I would prefer to have Hall.
I think people should stop comparing Seguin to Sakic/Yzerman, I have not seen any statistical or analytical comparisons that put Seguin in the same league as those two.
Both will be good players but Hall is the BPA at #1 pick
I think it's a great idea PJO that the guy that agrees with you have the last decision
ReplyDeleteNot who has highest and best knowledge
Great way to run a team
LOL talk about syncronicity I was yapping about Gagner to black dog a few minutes ago.
ReplyDeleteI might as well paraphrase, by saying that although I think Gagner will eventually turn out to be a player watching Patrick Kane score the clutchest goal like an incarnation of Gretzky - wow what a player.
Many of you already know my thoughts on the upcoming draft. Those of you who wish to know can visit my blog.
Hawks, Pens, Caps all look like competing for the cup for the next decade, plus a few still developing teams, none of which are the 30th place Oilers.
hunter - The Hawks, Pens and Caps are all riding talent that they drafted very early.
ReplyDeleteIf this recipe holds, Tampa has Stamkos and Hedman.
I think it's a great idea PJO that the guy that agrees with you have the last decision
ReplyDeleteNot who has highest and best knowledge
Great way to run a team
I'd like to know how exactly one concludes, based on that article from the Journal, that Tambellini is leaning towards Hall. Seems pretty noncommittal actually.
Personally, I doubt they've made up their minds yet, which, given that they've still got a fortnight worth of time to do their homework, is precisely where they should be. Take every moment and leave no stone unturned in terms of research.
I think that might be what we see in the next couple of weeks. Adding picks, and moving up in the draft.
ReplyDeleteI know a cheap and easy way to add #15...
LT: I can't believe you haven't added Hunter's blog to your blog roll yet! :)
ReplyDeleteThis upcoming season of Oilers hockey will rot your socks off. Which I believe is Tambellini's plan. Stink and draft high.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Oilers should pick Hall and then grab the best player in the draft next year also.
Coach:
ReplyDeleteIs Boston picking 15th?
Bing your sister over here, let me dance with her just for the hell of it!
ReplyDeleteLT;
ReplyDeleteFYI as I know you have hyped "NHL Draft Notes" a couple of times.
After a slow start to the year Remmerde has added a number of scouting reports for the WHL kids. Great stuff. Interesting that he thinks Howden might fall to the 2nd round. If he is available and they take Seguin 1st overall that would be another Warrior I would be interested in.
- The report that IF Tambellni and MBS disagree on who to pick, the final call goes to Tambellini.
ReplyDeleteI cannot imagine a situation where the Head Scout has the right to over-rule the GM. How is it that this suprises you? Now, the GM may risk his working relationship with his head scout or maybe even see him resign (The head scout would have to have very strong feelings about a pick to do this), but the GM is the boss.
I think that there is getting to be a tendency to be critical of perfectly normal things on the Oilers.
Since I saw the comps of Hall VS Seguin (see previous thread):
ReplyDeleteSeguin = Legwand
Hall = Marleau
In my mind...
Hall = Marleau
Seguin = Brad Richards
Kind of makes picking a bit harder.
Anon:''I think people should stop comparing Seguin to Sakic/Yzerman, I have not seen any statistical or analytical comparisons that put Seguin in the same league as those two.
ReplyDelete''
Steve Yzerman
1981-82 Peterborough Petes OHL 58 21 43 64 65
1982-83 Peterborough Petes OHL 56 42 49 91
Tyler Seguin
2008-09 Plymouth Whalers OHL 61 21 46 67
2009-10 Plymouth Whalers OHL 63 48 58 106
Now you do. Hurp fuckin' durp.
I just hope Hemsky isn't our Ruutu.
ReplyDeleteRibs...you cannot just pick players for fun and say..".that's who he will remind me of"
ReplyDeleteThere is evidence that Seguin tracks similar to Legwand.
1. Draft pedigree (Legwand 2nd ov) (Richards 64th ov)
2. Scouting reports
3. Stat anaysis
I posted this earlier but here is legwand VS Seguin comparison
Both played for Plymouth.
Their draft years:
Seguin 106pts
Legwand 105pts
Rookie Years:
Seguin 67pts
Legwand 62pts
Both players win OHL MVP in their draft year.
David Legwand scouting report leading up to draft:
Quote:
Central Scouting report: Exceptional skater. ... Agile with great balance and able to maneuver effortlessly around opponents. ... Excellent one-on-one and carries the puck with confidence. ... Hard and accurate shot which he can release in stride effectively. ... Tremendous vision and anticipation. ... Able to raise level of his game
Seguin scouting report:
Quote:
"Tyler Seguin makes things happen every time he is on the ice and he makes his teammates better. He's a skilled forward. He's a guy that's obviously a top-line forward with all kinds of puck skills and playmaking abilities. ... He's an elusive guy in traffic, avoiding checks with the puck."
-Chris Edwards, NHL Central Scouting
Richards is not a fair comparison and Richards is clearly an outlier for the 64th overall pick
nice try though!
Jon: How come you can say it's not a fair comparison? You have a scouting report from Richards?
ReplyDeleteWhat about Yzerman? Theyr stats are carbon copies. (And Yzerman had an oh so much better team)
Holy fuck I wish the draft was over so we could talk about something else. My God. Seguin is this guy. Hall is that guy.
ReplyDeleteJesus.
Bookie - agreed, I said something similar the other day. Tambellini can't win right now. Part of that is his fault but a lot of it is Lowe and a lot is just people being sick of an organization that has really screwed things up over the last while.
I don't mind his work this calendar year. The Grebs deal strikes me as being a bit off but overall I think he has been better than average. Now this summer is a big one for him. He has to, as LT says, try and augment this cluster. He should try and move some salary and/or malcontents and/or deadwood if he can. He has to rejig the organization, which I think he is doing - the farm team, player development, support systems.
But when he dumped the guy who sharpens skates and everyone freaked out you knew that he can't win. Even if he lays the groundwork for a championship franchise he'll likely not be around to see it to fruition.
I have not seen any statistical or analytical comparisons that put Seguin in the same league as those two.
ReplyDeleteDraft Year:
Goals & % of teams Goals
Seguin - 48, 0.20
Sakic - 60, 0.18
Points and % of team Points
Seguin - 106, 0.17
Sakic - 133, 0.16
When a team is drafting 5th overall, It is the head scout's choice.
ReplyDeleteWhen a team is drafting 1st overall, it is the owner's choice.
A good owner will delegate the choice to his GM.
A good GM will delegate the choice to his head scout.
FPB is Legwand a bad comparison?
ReplyDeleteFrom my point of view, Legwand is the most similar in all three areas of draft pedigree, stats, and scouting reports.
Everyone is entitled to their own view but until someone shows me differently, Legwand is the best comp and there is evidence to back that statement up.
Jon: What's that even gonna proove?
ReplyDeleteHey let's just find someone who ressembled Hall and then sucked ass.
FPV has out of context numbers. Somebody pat him on the head!
ReplyDeleteBD: I hear ya re: The Pick. It's amazing how many ways we're finding to take the fun out of a win-win situation.
ReplyDeleteMy coping strategy is picking a long shot (ranked well out of the first couple rounds) for which to root. I stumbled onto Devante Smith-Pelly watching the Cherry-Orr Game and, whenever I get burned out on TyTay talk, I gleefully watch his grainy youtube videos and look forward to tracking him in the draft.
Smarmy: Yeah i guess mentionning Yzerman's team was better had jackshit to do with context.
ReplyDeleteWe should really do a new game where we score with attemps of shooting instead of actual goals
(Just kidding)
Seguin + what Boston will give up to get Hall > Hall
ReplyDeleteSounds like Boston might be willing to give up pick + roster player to get Hall.
Chiarelli isn't the sharpest GM (see Lucic and Thomas contracts)and he had WIN NOW pressure, so I believe it.
Turn what Boston gives up + to get McIlrath.
That would be a good day.
Jon,
ReplyDeleteI have read that Legwand has world class talent and zero desire.
Giving a shit plays a big part.
I trust MBS to figure out if he'll give a shit.
I gotta say, I wasn't sold on McIlrath until Remmerde's take went up. Very convincing. To the point that I covet the guy now.
ReplyDeleteThe 25th seems even further away...
in the last week or so, i read a nashville scout / coach talking about Legwand. He called him the laziest guy on the team. That is the opposite of Seguin so the comparison is not a very good one.
ReplyDeleteI think that Tambo is saying he will overrule Stu in order to convince Chia that we are drafting Hall. Too many sources have our scouts leaning towards Seguin so Tambo nips that rumor with one statement.
Woodguy wrote: "Chiarelli isn't the sharpest GM (see Lucic and Thomas contracts)and he had WIN NOW pressure, so I believe it."
ReplyDeleteBOS has its goalies at $7M. One is the most highly touted rookie goalie in ages. The other won the Vezina last year.
EDM has some combo of vet/kid at $4.45. Either kid is a dubious NHLer. The vet is an aging, injury-prone sieve.
BOS has a 22-year-old power FW who had 17G as a 20-year-old and who spent 2/3 of this year hobbled by a high ankle sprain.
EDM has a 30-year-old "No. 1 C" who was -29 this year and has only once topped 53 points.
One team owns 4 picks in the Top 50. One team has a de facto GM blinded by the reflection of his 6 Cup rings as a player and a de jure GM who was turned down for the job by pretty much every other team in the league.
One team made the playoffs. The other team finished 32nd in a 30-team league.
Nobody associated with the Oilers is in any position to question the sharpness of Chiarelli's mind.
It's two weeks until draft day and there's a lot of folks who can't help but live/eat/sleep/breathe/poop prospects right now. This is all well and good but the sense I get as a lurker is that people are just adding noise at this point. Correct me if I'm wrong but nobody who posts here is a professional scout, nor has anyone gone through the trouble of getting footage on each player's season and plowing through it with a keen and analytical eye.
ReplyDeleteAs a result, we have folks in the math camp who tend to say these players are pretty much equal and folks in each player's camp whose minds aren't exactly changing at this point. The season is done so the math isn't changing any more than whichever bias you happen to have. We are just commenting on comments about comments which is a good recipe for two things: 1) becoming more entrenched in our views and 2) getting further away from the truth.
Did things get this way during the Gagner draft?
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteWhy McIlrath? Why not another F if EDM manages to get a middle of the first pick?
SH:
ReplyDeleteIt was a bit different for the Sam draft, since we didn't know who would be available.
IIRC, most were hoping for either Sam or Voracek, but were unsure if either would be available, so it never got overly heated.
It also helped that it didn't become a reality until much later in the season that we would be drafting that high.
1. Draft pedigree (Legwand 2nd ov) (Richards 64th ov)
ReplyDeleteSeems somewhat irrelevant to me. The draft and its players change every year. If all of the best players were picked first in the draft, I'd agree. They're not.
2. Scouting reports
Well, if you can find one, it's a good bet that it says a lot of the same things.
3. Stat analysis
Richards put up more points but the leagues and state of junior hockey are a lot different these days. Tough to compare stats.
Legwand is a good recent example by the book but from what I've seen and heard, Seguin plays a different game. He reminds me a lot of Brad Richards. Time will tell, I suppose.
Everyone keeps saying pick the best player available.... that might be hall it may not. As an 18 year old yep he is better but in 3 years it might be brett connelly and then everyone will say the Oilers make a mistake. Hall, Seguin whichever, just be thankful we have a choice this year for two quality players.
ReplyDeleteArt,
ReplyDeleteI am not associated with the Oilers except being a fan and season ticket holder. (Place comment questioning my mental acumen here)
No where did I say that any Oiler executive was sharper than Chiarelli.
There can be two (or more) dull knives in the drawer.
Speeds,
McIlrath seems to be the target. If they can get a pick high enough to take one of the other highly touted Dmen who they rank ahead of him that would be a good day too.
I saw Pretty In Pink on TV the other day.
ReplyDeleteThe vibe I get from Taylor Hall is that he's like the James Spader douchebag character. Seguin seems more like the Andrew McCarthy good-at-heart character.
So because the Oilers organization is already hard to like ... my vote goes to Seguin.
And as an aside; just generally this roster could do with fewer Molly Ringwalds and Jon Cryers.
I would like the Oilers to draft a James Spader in "Crash" type.
ReplyDeleteAnd as an aside; just generally this roster could do with fewer Molly Ringwalds and Jon Cryers.
ReplyDeleteAmen.
Can someone please explain the McIrath tunnel-vision to me. Why is this kid so superior to the other dozen or so prospects that could go in the middle of the first round?
ReplyDeleteLooks a lot like Alex Plante to me, not that there is anything wrong with Alex Plante, but there is huge opposition to Plante's selection to this day.
I don't get it.
Deano - The "Intimidation" factor. NHL teams love it.
ReplyDeleteI for one think the Oilers have enough Mollies on the roster.
I would like the Oilers to draft a James Spader in "Crash" type.
ReplyDeleteYou're the King, LT. The King.
Ribs - thanks. I see the superficial appeal to the commenters.
ReplyDeletemeh.
BPA not nastiest player available.
It's hard to stay away from a Pretty in Pink reference because fuck that's a good movie.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Crash and The Love are Showcase porn flicks.
There is evidence that Seguin tracks similar to Legwand.
ReplyDelete...
Their draft years:
Seguin 106pts
Legwand 105pts
Rookie Years:
Seguin 67pts
Legwand 62pts
...
You are wrong.
Legwand's big 105 point campaign was his rookie season in major junior and his draft season. His numbers went down in his second year.
Legwand's big 105 point campaign was his rookie season in major junior and his draft season. His numbers went down in his second year.
ReplyDeleteHad Legwand played in the OHL as a 16 year old, it would be fair to assume his draft year numbers would be higher.
Had Legwand played in the OHL as a 16 year old, it would be fair to assume his draft year numbers would be higher.
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