We're counting down the days until the Edmonton Oilers stand on the podium and announce to all the world their #1 pick. We're not going to know until Tambellini announces it (or Lowe, or even Katz. If I owned the team there would be a seat for me at the draft table for damn sure, and Katz strikes me as enough of a nerd to get some enjoyment from such a day) but we can read the tea leaves. There are also some other draft trends we can look at before the 2010 edition so lets do that now.
- Will the Oilers trade the #1 pick? No. They "might" make a side deal with the Bruins to stay away from Hall and select Seguin #1 but even that seems a stretch. Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor should make the call and Tambellini should stand beside him on the decision. Either way, the Oilers have a chance to pick #1 overall for the first time in their history and it is a major, historic and symbolic event. Kind of like the moon landing, that sort of thing. In the words of 20th century poet John Lydon: "getting rid of the albatross; I know you very well, you are unbearable."
- Who will they choose? Taylor Hall. These two are equal talents and the things that make Hall more attractive (track record of winning big games, championship resume, fame) are all things the Oilers can wrap themselves around in the darkest period of their NHL history. These are the Edmonton Oilers, not the Mobro 4000. The long haul doesn't mean avoiding the NHL ready player, and the choice is so close that Hall gets the nod based on intangibles.
- Intangibles? I thought you didn't believe in that stuff? I don't. However, when all things are equal and you have to decide between two talents, flipping a coin seems a little vague.
- What else will happen on day one? The Oilers will trade into the first round (middle) and choose Dylan McIlrath. My guess is that the early 2nd rd pick and perhaps a selection from next year or an Andrew Cogliano will also be included, but they're going to address the future blue at the draft. They have no choice.
- Oh God. You're back on the "draft a defenseman" kick are you? Yeah, I think so. McIlrath isn't going to be Orr or even Park, but if he can be Jim Dorey the Oilers will have improved an area of great need at a time when it is vital.
- What about day 2? The Nashville (Grebs) pick starts day 2 (if the Oilers trade up in rd 1) and one expects the Oilers will draft a forward with offensive skills. Maybe another Lander if available, but they could use more skill and this draft is deep.
- Then what? Then it gets fun: The Oilers under both KP and MBS have done unusual work in the third-fifth rounds. This is the place the Oilers have drafted their Coke Machines and obscure Euro's; its kind of like being a Doors fan and listening to the Soft Parade for the first time. We could see a goalie or a coke machine or a Croatian. There's no real way to predict the Edmonton Oilers outside the top 50 overall.
- Which player on the Oilers list is most likely to be traded at the draft? Riley Nash. Moreau, Nilsson and O'Sullivan can be bought out, and the Oilers management group has mentioned it is an option. Why pay anything for struggling role players when you can wait until they're bought out and are a bargain? Souray won't be traded until after July 1.
- RILEY NASH? HA-HA! He has no value! On the contrary, he's going to be a bargain. The Oilers are either frustrated by his career path or his progress (or both) and because we know it other NHL teams know it. If I'm Boston, he's a guy I trade for because the price is low at this time. Plus he's closer to being NHL ready than most of the kids in this draft and might sign right away with another team.
- You're just making stuff up now. No. I'm not. Smart organizations never betray anything about their prospects but fans know the Oilers have soured on Nash without ever leaving our basements to buy Cheesies. Sam Pollock's teams never did that kind of thing.
- Will the Oilers do well at the draft? I think they will. MBS looks to be a guy who doesn't gamble in the first round (Eberle, MPS) and spends some deep picks on draft fallers (Motin, Rajala, Roy). Chances are we'll know 4 or more of the Oilers picks by name as they are called. May not sound like a big deal, but in the last decade Oilers fans were sent running to their search engines for info on Mikhnov, Niinimaki and some other high picks.
- Why don't you guess at four names? Taylor Hall, Dylan McIlrath, Justin Shugg, Sondre Olden.
sounds about right to me.
ReplyDeletepersonally i don't like the idea of drafting D early, but the oil are so bereft of talent in that area that they almost have to.
assuming the team needs 3 additional NHL quality D - right now, and that's not counting the prospects that will be necessary to bolster the farm, which is also short on quality D - even AHL quality.
getting these three characters, plus prospects for the farm, without trading away any of the potential we have at F or overpaying UFAs is going to be impossible. team needs to keep that to a minimum. best way to keep that to a minimum is to draft.
need 5+ D at AHL quality to NHL quality.
unless something stupid pays off, like switching moreau to 3rd pairing defense, there's just no way to fill *all* those holes without drafting quality D.
If they choose Mcylrath 15 and up i swear I will post ''Robert Nilsson sucks''
ReplyDelete(I'm a little bit more afraid than the Campbell trade, where I would have to shoot myself in the foot)
(By up i mean before 15)
ReplyDeleteregarding Hall/Seguin intangibles .. does Seguin strike anyone else a being a bit of a jerk in interviews?
ReplyDeletenhl.com has a video of Hall and Seguin meeting Patrick Kane in the dressing room before a SCF game and after Kane leaves, Seguin cracks a couple of jokes at his expense, then realizes he's still on camera and backtracks by saying you have to "respect a guy with a mullet". i couldn't help but think Seguin came off as disrespectful of Kane, considering Kane was a key player in a SCF and Seguin was, what? CHL player of the year?
Hall was deferential and respectful the whole time. tho to be fair he's probably not quick enough on his feet, verbally, to be anything but that.
but maybe you want your top player to be a jerk with a tremendous sense of entitlement. maybe it helps competitiveness coz they're going to be forced to back up what they say. not sure.
What dies mcIlarath offer that Plante doesn't? I hate the idea of drafting long term projects with littel chance to be an impact player.
ReplyDeleteIf you can sign one of Malhotra / Moore / Nichol etc cheap, why draft a guy who has no higher ceiling? McIlrath might end up a decent 2nd / 3ed pairing guy but those guys can be had ufa or via trade, espcially if you are ok eating a little salary like with Staois.
I would draft a high risk / high reward guy over a steady guy in the first two rounds. Even if it is another smurf, you can always trade them. After that, fill some holes.
Striatic: I think he's just being honest or enjoys a joke or 2. I like to tone down the stress. Often enough questions in interviews are borderline retarded, or have been asked a million times. Anyway, i don't think a joke or 2 on the 20 cents boxer is too disrespectful. (Compared to what Kane did)
ReplyDeletestriatic:
ReplyDeleteHe's more real in interviews.
As opposed to Hall who's being coached what to say at every moment by the Orr Group.
"The Oilers will trade into the first round (middle) and choose Dylan McIlrath."
ReplyDeleteI see Plante's name has already been mentioned.
Welcome to another Oiler encore Presentation!
C'mon Be Different this Time!
Add a 2nd First-rounder, draft a forward.
"As opposed to Hall who's being coached what to say at every moment by the Orr Group."
ReplyDeletea player who responds well to coaching might be useful.
tho buying into the oiler's coaching system may not automatically be a good thing.
how much should "personality" or "character" factor into a selection like this?
Can we get a run down of which members of the management team have soured on Nash and made this publicly available? Prendergast comes to mind, but I don't know of others.
ReplyDeleteAlso - I'm not sure if I buy it that good organizations don't publicly slam their players every once in a while. I wasn't up in arms over MacT taking shots at Schremp; the Schremp hype machine was kind of an insult to all the other kids on the farm who were putting in their hours, and if I was one of those kids I'd probably welcome MacT's comments. So public comments might occasionally serve some purpose (e.g. in salary negotiations, or in letting other players know that a prima donna's actions aren't being kindly looked upon etc. etc.) Plus I just don't think it has much of an impact upon the player's values trade wise, though I admit I've never taken part in trade negotiations.
Good write up once again, LT. I agree with everything you have posted including using Cogliano as the bait and using the 2nd pick on McIlrath. If the draft shakes down as you have posted, I will be ecstatic. Draft day will be a very intriguing day.
ReplyDeleteI still wonder about trading Nash, there's such a narrow range of return that makes him worthwhile.
ReplyDeleteYou can't accept less than 51st overall, 2012. And nobody's giving up a first rounder for another team's difficult first rounder.
The more and more we advance toward the draft, the more we're turning into a bunch of gossip talkers. I bet half the shit we take for granted is made up.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeletei'm assuming you'll do posts on Justin Shugg & Sondre Olden?
thanks
I personally don't see the Oilers trading back into the 1st round for McIlrath.
ReplyDeleteKnowing that Tambellini is focusing on changing the culture in the room, and looking for big players with jam, I could see Charlie Coyle going at #31 if he makes it out of the 1st round.
Well Matt Bugg, who you referred to in a previous post, now has his famout Mock Draft out and he had McIlrath going to Bos at 15.
ReplyDeleteDoes Cogs and our second get us this pick? If not, what more do we need to add?
LT - With all this focus on McIlrath, how do you rank the d-men in this year's class? Is he, as Red Line suggests, the 6th best in a weak group?
Misfit...
ReplyDeleteI don't see it either.
McIlrath has nowhere near the upside of a Plante, so why we would fight to make a deal and use a mid-firster on him is beyond me. Everything I've read has said his skating is an issue, so how low will this guy actually go? For eg. Seabrook also had a lot better numbers and went 14th, so I can't see McIlrath falling that low.
Now if he's still available at say 27th, then it might be worth it to spend a spare smurf on moving up if there's a market for it, but otherwise, there's nothing about this guy that tells me it's worth doing some hard deal-making and player-sacrificing to get into the 18-25 range to get him.
As far as spendng 1st rounders on Dmen goes, I'm okay with it. This team could use a Doughty in the system. And ideally we will suck bad enough this coming season to get Larsson next draft.
15th huh? That's a pretty weak draft class.
ReplyDeleteLooking back, the guys taken middle of the second deck, all brought some offence to the table--Teubert, Karlsson, Plante, Wishart, Pokulok. Mark Mitera looks like the highest defensive Dman taken in recent drafts at 19, in 2006, a very very poor draft year for Dmen.
Kabanov fired by his agent today? He's blowing ballast faster than a sub trying to out-drop a depth charge.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'd go as high as 22 for McIlrath, if 22 overall is my only trading partner in the final 9 picks. He's something we don't have in the system. And we have lots of smurfs ...a veritable cornucopia thereof. But that's my final offer. ;o)
If we somehow obtained the 15th overall (by cunning and subterfuge beyond the capabilities of the existing "head" office), could we not do better than McIlrath?
Highlander: Redline would know way more than I about draft strength year over year.
ReplyDeleteAs for my ranking, the D would go like this:
1. Gormley
2. Fowler
3. Gudbranson
4. McIlrath
5. Forbort
I'm with you on the need to draft a defensive/physical d-man, and have been saying the same, myself. The Oil are going to have be careful about how they go about this in the next few years, as they've always had a tendency to address need in bulk, fixing that need, and creating a new need (we all remember how all we used to have were hulking defensive slugs, right?).
ReplyDeleteLowetide, what are the chances of the Oil trading with Columbus for the 4th overall? What would it likely take to make that deal, and who would be on their radar @ #4?
ReplyDeletei couldn't help but think Seguin came off as disrespectful of Kane,
ReplyDeleteOh fer crissakes. Sports and respect have become the most ridiculous pairing.
Loyal: I have no idea aside from Howson obviously knowing the Oilers players very well. Hemsky? I wouldn't trade him but is the guy I'd ask for.
ReplyDeleteAs for #4 overall, I have the top 5 as Hall, Seguin, Gormley, Granlund,Fowler. So I'd say they target Fowler.
Fowler would make sense, particularly if they take Hall. Gudbranson gets some very positive comments in the Hockey News Draft Preview, comparing him to Pronger.
ReplyDeleteRegarding trading Hemsy and/or Penner, I would try to sign them to extensions during the season. If the read was that they weren't very interested, I would trade them at the deadline. They would have a high vale at that time.
LT - If you trade to 15 and Tarasenko's there somehow; even you take him right? How are more people not speaking about him?
ReplyDeleteI sometimes wonder what Glen Sather of approximately 25-30 years ago would have done in our current situation. I have a feeling it would go something like:
ReplyDelete"We're pleased to announce the newest members of the Edmonton Oilers: Alex Radulov, Marcel Hossa, Tony Mårtensson, and David Petrasek"
Would it really be so complicated for a team to attempt such a thing?
I sometimes wonder what Glen Sather of approximately 25-30 years ago would have done in our current situation.
ReplyDeleteHe probably would have sent about 5 future Hall of famers on the ice to make everything better.
GMing/Coaching the Oilers of 1984 was pretty easy.
Not exactly what I mean there book. He used to grab some really interesting players to fill the holes in the roster without giving up much of anything.
ReplyDelete'Course, Sather might have signed some interesting college FA's by this point too.
ReplyDeleteThere is lots to be had of the interesting and possibly useful variety to put into the system (ECHL, AHL and NHL-calibre). I dunno why Tambs is still sitting on his hands.
Germany look the best team so far in the wc.
ReplyDeleteZherdev is still available and all he costs is money. Apparently he wants back in the NHL as well. He was holding out for 3.5 last year so maybe he comes over this year for 3.0
ReplyDeleteHe's not small either at 6'2, 200 pounds and was +6 on a team that was -115 his last year in NY.
Sam Pollock would trade Hemsky for #4 and sign Zherdev to take his place.
ReplyDeleteGudbranson gets some very positive comments in the Hockey News Draft Preview, comparing him to Pronger.
ReplyDeleteEvery year, draft eligible defensemen are compared to Chris Pronger. Nigel Williams drew comparisons to Pronger in the Hockey News for crying out loud.
LT - Thanks for your top 5 D. I agree with you on the top 4 and Matt Bugg thinks that your top four go in that order but there is a big drop off between his top 3 and McIlrath.
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced that McIlrath would still be available (or worth a pick that high if we can trade up there) so how big a drop off do you see between McIlrath and in another d-man who fits some of that bill in 6'6" USNTDP d-man Jarred Tinordi?
I like the bloodlines not simply because of the DNA but because they have a much clearer sense of what it takes to succeed at the NHL level. Besides Gagner would have someone to swap daddy stories with.
Other options include Oil King D Mark Pysyk or Red Deer Rebel, and Edmonton boy, Alex Petrovic. While McIlrath is getting all the hype as the next Tyler Myers - and not just here - any of these three may be just as good in the NHL and available when we are likely to pick without costing us what it would to move up to get McIlrath.
What Highlander said -
ReplyDeleteI don't think DM has enough clearance on the rest of his cohort to justify trading up for him.
So if they intend on drafting Hall, then will they make an attempt to sign or trade for a centre? LT who would you expect them to target? I already made my pitch for Sharp (which most here think is unlikely since Chicago will deal a bunch before they deal him). Anyone else other then a whale like Spezza?
ReplyDeletei have a hunch, Lowetide, that the top 5 defensive picks might go exactly like this: 1.Gudbranson
ReplyDelete2.Fowler
3.Gormley
4.Forbort
5.McIlrath
just my guess.
One of these days it would be nice to hear just where things went wrong with Nash.
ReplyDeleteThe oilers liked him enough to move things around to pick him and here's a guy with size who's a good two way fellow and here's an org who could use sizable two way pivots.
I like Tinordi but Pysyk and Petrovic are a little too vanilla for me.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing I don't get is fans wanting to pass on McIlrath because they want to go with a player with more "upside". McIlrath projects to be Milan Lucic on D. That's a home run.
i would love to see Pysyk or Petrovic here, and we if we hang on to the pick, all it will take is one of the goalies to go in the 1st round, and i figure Petrovic would be availible at #31.
ReplyDeleteTraktor: A home run involves offense, no fielding there.
ReplyDeleteIt's a pretty weak draft, doesn't take a mega brain to figure it out, when a forward under PPG is rated 6th overall, it's a red flag.
Mike Richards had 87 points with 6''00 when he was drafted, he was drafted 24th overall, in this draft he would be in the top 5. Pouliot in the top 10 probably.
"It's a pretty weak draft, doesn't take a mega brain to figure it out, when a forward under PPG is rated 6th overall, it's a red flag."
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf was ranked 5th overall in his draft with a PPG under 1/1.
In arguably one of the best drafts ever.
Apparently it takes a mega brain to figure out.
If young Tinordi has any of Mark Tinordi in him, look out (one of these guys eventually has to fall close to the tree, don't they?). Mark absolutely pummeled the Oilers in the '91 playoffs. He was one mean SOB.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the classic Jason Smith/Mark Tinordi tilt here:
http://hockeystoughguys.blogspot.com/2008/09/jason-smith-vs-mark-tinordi.html
I will take one of those guys, thank you very much.
"That's a great bout right there. That's a heavyweight BEAUTY."
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link.
Traktor: Okay, let's specify (Getzlaf was taken 19th).
ReplyDeleteAnd, there was a bunch of other guys over PPG with size, thing that's not so much present in this draft.
Look who is number #31...http://www.hockeyprospect.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23291&Itemid=100045
ReplyDeleteOf course he sounds like young Tinordi skates as bad as Plante or worse, so his coordination may never catch up with his body.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, maybe Plante will become that defensive stalwart in another couple of years, and Tinordi comes up behind him? Something has to go right around here eventually, doesn't it?
Interesting thoughts Lowetide. Labelling McIlrath for pick #15 or so is artificial. The draft is a dynamic process. There is bound to be all kinds of talent at pick #15 that will make picking McIlrath look very foolish in 5-7 years, even if he does turn into a top 4 NHL defenseman which is far from certain. Risky pick at 15. Ok at 31.
ReplyDeleteWould you take him if Johansen was still on the board? Could happen.
Ashley, there's a bunch of forwards i'd take at #15, if they were still availible, over McIlrath. i think he's been a little overhyped because of his fistic ability.
ReplyDeletea lot of people seem to be acting like McIlrath is a one trick pony and as risky as Kabanov...i don't get it. he's ranked in the early 20s or lower in every mock draft i've seen.
ReplyDeletei don't understand why people say he's one dimensional. traktor's comparison to lucic is perfect...a bigger angrier jason smith.
the way people are talking around here you'd think this guy is the boogie man -- kid can play the game a little folks; you're not a top prospect without some dimensional skills.
Jfry,
ReplyDeleteI like him well enough as a pick, but I don't think I could burn a #15 on him (and what it would take to get a #15). Price just seems too high.
But if he gets the SMB stamp of approval, really, who are we to argue? He's not a Niinimaki.
Jfry: Guys like Lucic panning out don't come out too often.
ReplyDeleteThen a gain i believe Lucic is oh so overated.
No. They "might" make a side deal with the Bruins to stay away from Hall and select Seguin #1 but even that seems a stretch. Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor should make the call and Tambellini should stand beside him on the decision.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm Steve and I'm the one going up to the podium to make the pick and I'm the one that has to explain it to the president and owner then I want my scouts to give me a good explanation and persuade me if my choice is different from theirs.
On a sidenote, i think Colton Orr might have a record. 2 Straight full seasons wihtout being scratched as a untalented goon.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy, you have to trust the people under you, and if you don't then you need to hire new people.
ReplyDeleteDelegation is what a good manager does. When the Spanish Armada came knocking on the door Elizabeth didn't start ordering around the English fleet and telling them how to fight and what plans to use. She put Howard in charge cause that was his are of expertise, and he in turn deferred to Drake since he was much more experienced and naval battles was what Drake did.
Tambellini isn't a full time scout, and it would be hubris for him to think that he knows more about prospects than the people who do it full time for a living. I'm with LT on this, SMac should be making the call, and Tambellini should trust in that unless something quite extraordinary happens.
SMac should be making the call, and Tambellini should trust in that unless something quite extraordinary happens.
ReplyDeleteI agree - if they don't trust his judgement, fire him. If they do, defer to him.
Traktor nails it on Zherdev.
ReplyDeleteToughish minutes.
Decent results.
No acquisition cost.
Though I’m not sure if he is cultured enough.
I agree - if they don't trust his judgement, fire him. If they do, defer to him.
ReplyDeleteDid you mean Tambellini and his feelings towards his scout or ownership and its feelings towards the GM?
If Tambo thinks he is better qualified than StuM to differentiate between Hall and Seguin it is a serious problem.
ReplyDeleteZherdev is pretty much the opposite of what Tambellini said he wanted to bring to this team.
ReplyDeleteHow many teams does the guy have to get shown the door from before people stop suggesting we persue him?
Buyout period starts soon - I know many of you are waiting to send Moreau his goodbye card, but I suspect that he will be on the Oilers third line this fall...
ReplyDeleteWhy?
- The Oilers won't have budget problems this year so financially better to pay him to play.
- I think that while WE all see him as part of the problem, Tambellini may see him as part of the solution (and sees Souray as part of the problem). This may seem silly, but I remember some notion that the 'imports' to the dressing room were hurting the work ethic and togetherness that the Oilers had durring and prior to the '06 run (the 'all for one' and 'do or die' attitude).
- He finished the season strong
The evidence against this is that there were strong rumours that the Oilers were trying to dump him at the trade deadline.
Remmerde's two bits on Jordan Weal. Seems like he's pegging the kid as a slider and I know I've seen some chatter on here from a Pats fan who feels he's underrated. Here's Remmerde's prediction:
ReplyDeleteKind of hard to figure, but I'd guess he's gone before the end of the 3rd round. Could even be a 2nd rounder. But you have to wonder - if Brandon Kozun lasts until the 6th round, why would this guy go so much earlier?
How far does J-Weal have to drop before it's worth burning a pick on another smurf?
Misfit: Who cares, he's a good hockey player and he doesn't cost much. The Rangers aren't exactly a good exemple, they let him go because he wanted 3,5 and then they gave that to Ales Kotalik.
ReplyDeleteNot really the biggest red flag i've seen.
Every year, draft eligible defensemen are compared to Chris Pronger. Nigel Williams drew comparisons to Pronger in the Hockey News for crying out loud.
ReplyDeleteI think the last times the top Centre prospects weren't compared to Yzerman and Sakic were the years Yzerman and Sakic were drafted.
How far does J-Weal have to drop before it's worth burning a pick on another smurf?
ReplyDeleteDF: Not very damn far in my opinion. He'd be an outstanding third round pick in my view. The kid has two things a small man needs to make it in the NHL: big talent and big drive.
I can imagine I'd be about as pleased if the Oilers stole Jordan Weal in the third round in 2010 as I was when they stole Mike Comrie in the third round in 1999.
I think the last times the top Centre prospects weren't compared to Yzerman and Sakic were the years Yzerman and Sakic were drafted.
ReplyDeleteWasn't Sakic compared to Yzerman?
I don't remember Crosby being compared to anyone else.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that's a tell.
If we can somehow get Hall or Seguin and one of the top 4 defensemen in the draft, I'll dance a jig of joy.
ReplyDeleteIf we can somehow get Hall or Seguin and one of the top 4 defensemen in the draft, I'll dance a jig of joy.
ReplyDeleteIf we use a first rounder on a defenseman, I will dance a jog of sadness.
Steve - I believe that is called a reel.
ReplyDeletebookie - I believe that they are trying to move him and I think that they will move him, like Souray, for equivalent salary and value
If they buy him out it costs the same amount of money pretty well with what they pay his replacement. I think they move him in a change of scenery deal. He goes elsewhere for Geoff Sanderson
I don't think they want him near the locker room, unless all of the rumours are untrue. Which is possible.