The Edmonton Oilers have a new scouting director (Stu MacGregor) and a small sample under his direction. Still, there are indications that the "MBS" is going to be his own man at the draft table. Below are Oiler draft trends--both old and new--that may have some application at this year's draft. I think it is worth looking back to see if we can predict the future.
- When they selected Alex Plante in the first round in 2007, it marked the first time a defenseman had been drafted by the Oilers in that round since Mathieu Descoteaux in 1996. In both seasons, the defenseman was the second player taken in the round (Boyd Devereaux in '96, Sam Gagner in '07). What can we learn from it? I think the Oilers will take a defenseman (my bet is Dylan McIlrath) should they trade up to the middle of the first round. The highest choice for the blue since Stu Macgregor took over was Troy Hesketh (#71) last season. Small sample size, but they need to stock the blueline with better prospects.
- The most popular position in the first round is center, with Jesse Niinimaki, Marc Pouliot, Rob Schremp, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Riley Nash and Jordan Eberle all being selected since 2002. In the same span, they've chosen one goalie (Dubnyk) and one defenseman (Plante). No wingers (none!) were chosen in the first round 2002-2008.
- The selection of Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson represents the highest ranked European choice in team history.
- MPS was also the highest ranked winger chosen since Steve Kelly in 1995 (Ryan Smyth was taken the previous season).
- During the "Coke Machine" era, the Oilers would routinely draft kids 40+ slots before one might have expected them to go. Geoff Paukovich was NA#80 (which would put him well into the 100s overall) in 2004 and they picked him 57th overall, dealing NHLer Jason Chimera for the right to do it. JF Jacques was ranked #88NA in 2003 and they picked him 68th overall. We saw that again last season with Cameron Abney.
- Despite going 248th overall in 2003, Josef Hrabel was ranked #30 Euro by Central Scouting. His ridiculous hgt/wgt ratio (6-1, 176) probably helped the slide.
- Rob Schremp fell big time. ISS had him top 5 and CSB had him #10NA but he fell all the way to #25. Mike Green went to Washington 4 picks later and he was ranked #9NA.
- Every year the Oilers say they tried to trade up. They've been after Pitkanen, Coburn, Barker, Alzner, usually defensemen but it never works out. This season they own the #1 pick, and I think there must be some temptation to trade down 1 slot in order to pick up a second pick in the top round.
- The Oilers DO trade a lot on draft day but it's usually down. The infamous Parise-Pouliot deal, the Niinimaki-Higgins trade are just two, although they did trade up for Riley Nash.
The 2002 trade that saw them send Jochen Hecht to Buffalo for 2 second-rounders featured Darcy Regier looking like he was about to pass out with glee on the draft floor. Seriously. - Lowe on the draft floor looks like a befuddled high school Math teacher looking for his shoes. Kevin Prendergast resembled a man about to receive the "Tobacco Rep of the Year" award and Stu MacGregor looks like a guy who wears a suit maybe 10 times a year and hates every minute of it.
- Many think Barry Fraser arrived in time for the 1979 draft, but in fact Fraser's first Oilers draft was the 1978 WHA amateur draft.
- Kevin Prendergast's era started in 2001 and went through the 2007 entry draft. He plucked Hemsky as his first pick and I don't think he made a better choice in the following seasons.
- Garnet Bailey was a scout after spending a little time coaching once his playing career ended.
- When they drafted Messier, several references in newspapers mentioned he was "raw-boned." That phrase is seldom used these days. The Toronto Maple Leafs didn't know he was available, and reports years later suggest it had a major impact on scouting staff turnover.
- Jari Kurri lasted until the 69th pick in 1980 because NHL teams were convinced he would remain in Finland for military duties. We saw this impact young Teemu Hartikainen (as chronicled beautifully by Derek over at C&B) and one would hope that these young men would be allowed to focus on their chosen career at such a vital development point.
- Scott Metcalfe was compared to two-way LW Dave Hunter the day he was drafted.
We've talked about him a lot on this blog, but Tony Hand is the most interesting human interest story Edmonton drafted. - Through about 1983, the Oilers basically buggered the other NHL teams senseless at the draft table. They were that good. 1984-2000 it was the other teams turn.
- Draft years go sideways very quickly. I always use the 5 year window as a "tell", meaning we can call the 2005 draft (too many small guys, specifically Chorney) but college kids (like Vande Velde in 2005 and Horcoff 7 years earlier) can save a draft.
- The 2004 draft comes down to Dubnyk now. Should Schremp end up being a useful player, I don't think we can credit the Oilers for it.
- The 2007 draft--despite three first round picks--has a bad taste. Plante was a raw player and he suffered major injury problems during key development years, and Nash is the Oilers "Cool Hand Luke" in that there is a major 'failure to communicate.'
Has anyone done analysis of the Oilers second round tendencies? I no longer care who they take with the first overall, but rather think that this draft will be made or broken by who is selected at 31 and 48.
ReplyDeleteStu MacGregor indicated he will go with the BPA in the first 3 rounds.
ReplyDeleteI agree with that sentiment.
However, he didn't practice that in reality last year when he took Hesketh and Abney in the third rounds.
If either of the goalies (Campell and Pickard) are available at 48, would you take them?
ReplyDeleteIf either of the goalies (Campell and Pickard) are available at 48, would you take them?
ReplyDeleteI'm not a fan of taking goalies early in the draft, but 48 seems like a relatively reasonable place to select either of those two. Besides defense, we could use a solid goalie prospect.
MacGregor said "first few picks", not three rounds in that latest interview. He went off book and started projecting in the third last year, and I bet we see a similar practice this year.
ReplyDeleteCampbell has a better shot at being in the Top 5 than he does at falling out of the first round. Pickard would be interesting. At the very least, we'd have a shot at owning the rights to both guys in Goal for Team Canada at next years WJC.
Does BPA mean Karil Kabanov, if he falls to the second round?
ReplyDeleteThe conversion of draft picks to NHL players (and more specifically useful NHL players), to me, is as much the development of said player afterward as it is the ability to identify and select the player. Said another way, you draft Parise, does he turn out to be the player he is today if he went through the Oilers system? I don't know but I would guess that he wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteDoes BPA mean Karil Kabanov, if he falls to the second round?
ReplyDeleteWell, the Oilers did interview him last week.
Chances are though, he's probably picked by then.
Jake 70: Parise's major development time took place in college. Desjardins NHLE predicted he would be a 50-point player in the NHL BEFORE the draft.
ReplyDeleteI don't think his development after turning pro (Albany 04-05) had as much impact as the college seasons.
And before we get too far down the Pouliot-Parise road, i would like to insert "injury" as the biggest single factor in the outcome.
LT, Pierre McGuire just called that comment "unconscionable!"
ReplyDeletesorry Lowetide, but trading down 5 spots to pick Pouliot in the '02 draft will always be a sore spot for Oiler fans, and will always be referred to in some way when talking about the draft.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Parise, watch where Jeff Skinner goes in the draft. I've mentioned him before but we all have our favorites right?
ReplyDeleteI know it's been discussed ad nauseum but I'm starting to think there is some compelling evidence to indicate Hall is the much better choice than Seguin.
ReplyDelete1) Championship Pedigree. Two Memorial Cup MVP Awards vs. Seguin being left off the WJC team. This HAS to be a major concern for the Oilers. The MVP Awards can be chalked up to Hall playing on a better team, but how to explain Hockey Canada passing over Seguin? How can he be the best player in the draft when he couldn't make Team Canada?
2) Difference in Development Curve. Hall's consistent dominance vs. Seguin's late development. More often than not, great players dominaate at every level. At times, Seguin has had to struggle to find his form. Could that happen in the show?
3) Hall just has the LOOK of a hockey player. Seguin looks at times like Joe Sakic. On other occasions he reminds me of Alexander Daigle or Peter Nedved.
4) Despite the center depth argument, I honestly believe the Oilers need a true sniper more than they need a playmaker. This team has lacked finish around the net for years. Hemsky and Hall would seem to make a perfect passer/scorer combination. Selecting Seguin sets up a potential line of Seguin, Eberle and MPS, but where does this leave Gagner in the equation?
5) Don Cherry says the Oil will and should pick Hall. Anyone noticed how often Grapes is actually dead on with his predictions?
Now, all of this goes out the window if we can dump Souray on Boston and pick up another first rounder in the process, but if the Oil step up to the podium and no deal with the B's is on the table, I think they've gotta pick Hall based on the evidence.
I agree about 2007 leaving a bad taste.
ReplyDeleteThe perception of Gagner's career potential will largely depend upon his performance this season. The mob will allow him the three seasons of his ELC to show what he's got, and no more.
Plante was always viewed as a questionable pick by the fanbase, but quite frankly his physical toolset meant that he was destined to go before pick 20. At least in my mind. Injuries have likely changed his career projection entirely.
Riley Nash was actually positively viewed from the beginning by my recollection, though many rightly pointed out that he was acquired at a great cost of two high picks. He's quickly fallen from grace, but objectively speaking his decision to stay in college 4 years isn't a huge deal. The controversy seems to have grown out of negative public comments by Prendergast and Nash's refusal to respond publically with his intentions. I get the sense that the entire matter could have been avoided if the Oilers asked Nash prior to his draft if he intended to stay in college 4 years. It's apparent they did not, but they still had the opportunity to avoid a mess by simply saying publically that he was going to stay in college 4 years and keep their mouths shut about how they were unhappy about it. Then again, I can totally see their side of it. I mean, badmouthing players to a rabid fanbase never has any negative consequences for the team, right?
It was universally panned as a bad move when Lowe traded down in 2003.
ReplyDeleteAnd this is YK Oil's point - the Oilers didn't get enough in return for moving down. Yet paid handsomely in 2007 in a weaker draft
The Prendergast era looking at it objectively, was more or less average. He did well in 2001 with Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteLots of misses in the first round since then:
Niinimakki, Pouliot (in a draft year in which everyone and their mothers landed an impact player), Dubnyk, Schremp, Plante (big question mark)
i think it's fair to say the pendergast era was bad...no gray area.
ReplyDeleteas for nash...i see him sitting out until he's in the wheeler position and then going to TO (i think) to play with his brother.
they shouldn't have asked Nash what he was going to do about school, they should have asked his brother, is the way it's starting to look.
http://www.dropshots.com/photos/1761/20070524/191728.jpg
also, arniel passed over again as CBJ hires Guy Boucher.
ReplyDeleteseidenberg signs 4 years for 13m (3.25/year). fine signing but what the hell is boston doing with their salary cap situation? they're in the exact same situation Calgary's in with all the 3-4m contracts. just horrible.
sorry...the only reason i bring up the boston signing is that it appears the only way we do business with them at the draft is if we take back a big contract. we can probably assume that Hunwick, Boychuk, Ryder and Wheeler are all plenty available.
ReplyDeleteJfry,
ReplyDeleteNash's brother Brendan signed a two year deal with Montreal.
I think R.Nash gets dealt at the draft this year. Hope they get good return, he's a pretty good prospect.
He's got some size and good NHLE, should be lots of interest, but his rumored "demand for a NHL spot" will hurt his value a little.
Regardless of his talent, if the rumor is true, you don't want that guy on your team anyhow.
No interest in earning a spot, but demanding one be given is not a good sign of character.
You can say he is just looking out for himself, and that is true, but demanding special treatment will probably be the tip of the iceberg.
Not saying pricks can't be good hockey players or help you win (see Pronger, CF), but unless you are CFP or equivalent, you're just a prick who can play hockey and there is a good chance your on ice positives don't outweigh the off ice negatives.
Plus he's a ginger from Consort. The only good things from Consort are lesbians, not gingers.
Dug: That's cool, I just want everyone to remember that Pouliot was well regarded and a certain first round pick.
ReplyDeleteHe was NOT off the board, he would not have been a reach at #17. His career has been impacted by injury and certainly a re-draft would see him well down the list.
None of this was known at the time of the selection, however. We need to remember that, and that many fans were content with the selection.
I am one, but certainly not the only one.
"Kevin Prendergast resembled a man about to receive the "Tobacco Rep of the Year" award"
ReplyDelete11/10.
You hit a bullseye from outer space with that line.
what the hell is boston doing with their salary cap situation?
ReplyDeleteSeidenberg replaces Morris.
Wheeler's Cap Hit will drop by half, or more.
They lose a couple of buy-outs from their Hit too.
//1) Championship Pedigree. Two Memorial Cup MVP Awards vs. Seguin being left off the WJC team. This HAS to be a major concern for the Oilers. The MVP Awards can be chalked up to Hall playing on a better team, but how to explain Hockey Canada passing over Seguin? How can he be the best player in the draft when he couldn't make Team Canada?//
ReplyDeleteDid being cut from the WJC team and being a later developer hurt Matt Duschene? Would you rather have Tavares than Duschene?
That Hall made the team and was an impact player at the WJC in his draft year is certainly a plus for him.
Hockey Canada chose the wrong guys at centre. They made political choices to satisfy the Leafs and the Flames and for ratings, and it cost them the tournament.
Lt
ReplyDeleteGeez man, there is loyalty and then there is loyalty
Pouliot would not be drafted in the first round and what is much much worse is that neither he nor Jacques would get drafted in the top 45 today in a redraft of that class.
Today I have NO idea how he was drafted ahead of Kesler,Richards and Perry (core Olympians) what is much worse their numbers were all noticeably better as was Patrice Bergeron drafted 23 spots later
He has had the same career as Jeff Tambellini and that is a HUGE disappointment
the other John: That's what I said. Pouliot would not be drafted in the first round today.
ReplyDeleteHowever, he WAS ranked in the first round on draft day. Bob McKenzie had him in the first round, and his top 30 is pretty much the Bible.
Hindsight tells us he didn't deserve that number; we can argue whether or not injury impacted it but there is no argument here (or anywhere) about how it turned out.
Didn't Hall also get cut from Team Canada in his first attempt to make the team?
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteThe concern I have is that the Oilers have, historically, wanted to show they are the bleeping smartest guys in the room and always stretch a bit for a pick so that if the guy plays out they get credit for being geniuses. That is what Pouliot was, Nittymaki etc
That has happened 4 or 5 times in the last decade and NONE of them have worked out
Teams like NJ take safes picks and rarely blow it
Pouliot was injured so much his nickname is "sicknote".
ReplyDeleteOther John: Yeah, I agree with that completely. I'm hoping MBS has cured that tendency but understand your point. It's arrogance.
ReplyDeleteHunter: lol. Watch them take Connolly first.
Other John: Adrian Foster blinks two times
ReplyDeletewhile laying in bed wearing a body cast signed
by all the NJD scouts.
can you say a little more about the Adrian Foster situation, please. his wikipedia article is pretty thin.
ReplyDeletethanks.
Jfry: some info here
ReplyDeleteDidn't Hall also get cut from Team Canada in his first attempt to make the team?
ReplyDeleteThe fact that he had 2 attempts should put him ahead of Seguin. While Hall was taking his first shot at Team Canada in 08/09, Seguin was trying to find his form scoring 1 goal in his first 17 games in the OHL. He finally found it, lighting it up in the 2nd half of that year, but Hall was well ahead of that pace leading his team to the Memorial Cup. That's the thing. Point out any accomplishment Seguin has achieved, and it appears Hall has done it earlier, bigger or better.
Would you rather have Tavares than Duschene?
ReplyDeleteYep.
BTW, Oiler fans, Robert Nilsson has a chance to win an award of sorts. His beauty against Detroit is competing for goal of the year. We can vote for him now on
http://goalsoftheyear.nhl.com/ though I doubt any of them will beat Sedin's marker vs. Calgary.
@danny: thanks for the link.
ReplyDeletea poster in that forum says this:
"Does anyone remember the fuss about Dan Cleary? He was nothing short of the saviour of the NHL the way they praised him. Thatcher Bell was highly touted, Jarrett Stoll was a potential #1 overall pick in the 2002 draft"
i remember the first two, but had never heard of Mr. Stoll being thought of in those same lofty standards. was he also a teenage phenom?
thanks.
Jfry: Nah. 2002 was his re-entry, in 2000 he was picked by Calgary as an 18-year old. I think HN had him mid-1st and he slipped because of footspeed.
ReplyDeleteDear Everyone, Stu Mac will make the right choice whether it's Seguin or Hall, if you are disappointed with the pick if it is Seguin please become another teams fan.
ReplyDeleteSincerly
Steve Schulte
PS: How good was Glee last week!
Gare Joyce's book mentions something about Foster. I don't have hear, so this isn't exact, but their reason for taking him with their first pick was that he was one of the best 15 year old players in the world at one point, and they weren't too interested in what came after him as they felt that was a weak draft. They felt that if they didn't sign him, whatever compensation pick they would get later on (no. 45 overall, right?) would be better than what was left on the board that particular draft year.
ReplyDeleteSeems like they ended up signing him anyway though.