The odds of Hall/Seguin being an elite talent aren't great, although the Oilers are at least picking in the neighborhood where generational talents hang out. Here are the draft odds (a 2004 study of the 1979-95 drafts):
- 2% turned out to be a elite players
- 4% turned into impact players
- 15% turned out to be average NHLers
- 24% played less than 200 games
- 55% never played a game in the NHL
Having said all of that, this pick is a huge opportunity for the Oilers. Future playoffs, winning the division, the conference, having a team that will contend every year, giving the younger Oiler fans their own memories of winning the Stanley. Can one pick make that much difference?
No. But it is a very nice place to start.
2% turned out to be a elite players etc.
ReplyDeleteanyone have those stats for 1st overall picks?
We're getting into semantics here. I'm curious what "Elite" and "Impact" mean in those statistics.
ReplyDelete83 players over that time would be 4 or 5 a year for "elite level." So we'd be counting the LeClairs and the Andreychuks in the group, and a few goalies aside from Roy and Hasek.
ReplyDeleteLT - Of the 17 #1's, how many ended up in the elite category?
ReplyDeleteI get 5:
ReplyDeleteHawerchuk
Lemieux
Modano
Sundin
Lindros
This is a much smaller number than I expected.
Deano, I don't know but lets make up our own list.
ReplyDelete1979: Rob Ramage (no)
1980: Doug Wickenheiser (no)
1981: Dale Hawerchuk (yes)
1982: Gord Kluzak (no)
1983: Brian Lawton (no)
1984: Mario Lemieux (yes)
1985: Wendel Clark (no)
1986: Joe Murphy (no)
1987: Pierre Turgeon (yes)
1988: Mike Modano (yes)
1989: Mats Sundin (yes)
1990: Owen Nolan (no)
1991: Eric Lindros (yes)
1992: Roman Hamrlik (no)
1993: Alexamnder Daigle (no)
1994: Ed Jovanoski (no)
1995: Bryan Berard (no)
So that's 6/17, or 35%.
I added Turgeron. But we're looking at 35%. Having said that, these are two very good prospects we're looking at here.
ReplyDelete"The odds of Hall/Seguin being an elite talent aren't great, although the Oilers are at least picking in the neighborhood where generational talents hang out. Here are the draft odds (a 2004 study of the 1979-95 drafts)"
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how much relevance 1979-95 has to be honest. With the training and nutritional knowledge that's available as well as better scouting there's not as many misses.
2000:
1. Rick DiPietro,
2. Dany Heatley
3. Marian Gaborik
2001:
1. Ilya Kovalchuk
2. Jason Spezza
2002:
1. Rick Nash
2. Kari Lehtonen
3. Jay Bouwmeester
2003:
1. Marc-Andre Fleury
2. Eric Staal
2004:
1. Alexander Ovechkin
2. Evgeni Malkin
2005:
1. Sidney Crosby
2. Bobby Ryan
2006:
1. Erik Johnson
2. Jordan Staal
3. Jonathan Toews
4. Nicklas Backstrom
2007:
1. Patrick Kane
2. James Van Riemsdyk
2008.
1. Steven Stamkos
2. Drew Doughty
2009:
1. John Tavares
2. Victor Hedman
3. Matt Duchene
I like our chances of getting an elite player. At very worst we are getting an 80 point talent but more likely a 100 point guy.
Traktor: Good point. I also think the scouting is better now. Back in the day you'd get Lou Nanne going crazy for one player and maybe not taking the bpa. That hasn't happened iirc since DiPietro.
ReplyDeleteFor completeness:
ReplyDelete1996: Chris Phillips
1997: Joe Thornton
1998: Vince Lecavalier
1999: Patric Stefan
(In my defence, I ain't the first guy to dis Turgeon)
I think we've had one truly "elite" player post-Messier. His name was Chris Pronger (this being if you go on the definition of an Elite player being Hall of Fame discussion worthy).
ReplyDeleteImpact players? We've had a few. Weight, Smyth, Guerin, Hemsky, Visnovsky off the top of my head.
The interesting one is Cujo. Was he an "elite" goalie?
Visnovsky was not an impact player for us.
ReplyDeleteI like the way Traktor has done it, looking at the top 2-3 in each year, which allows for the likes of Pronger making the earlier list.
ReplyDelete1981, for eg, also had Ron Francis and Grant Fuhr in the top 10, although both outside the top 3 IIRC.
ReplyDeleteweight had a 100+ and a 90+ season bookending a bunch of Hemskyish years.
ReplyDeletethat's pretty close to elite (if we're counting 100 pts as a line in the sand)
i agree that CFP is our only true "elite" player.
Cujo had, statistically speaking, 3 of his worst ever years career years were spent with the oilers. SV%'s of 0.886, 0.907, 0.905 -- amazing in the playoffs, but pretty Deslaurieresque numbers in the regular season.
i think it would be interesting to go over the top 10-15 picks every season and then breaking it into the predetermined categories. might prove interesting, given MPS, Gagne and hall/seguin. maybe i'll do it later, if i have the time.
ReplyDeleteThe interesting one is Cujo. Was he an "elite" goalie?
No, he was a good goalie with an awesome nickname and a terrible high glove.
book;e ... and he was competitive as hell. when the stakes rose, so did his level of compete.
ReplyDeleteI do believe scouting has gotten better and players are better conditioned and prepared than they used to be. I'd say Traktor's list quite nicely proves it. That is a long run of reasonable drafting accuracy.
ReplyDeleteI think given their improved performance we really need to try to hear what the scouts are actually saying about Hall/Seguin and not let our fandom get in the way. The gist of it is that #1 this year, our luck, is going to be an impact but not elite NHL player. We need to dial down our expectations. We are talking Toews and Spezza here people, not Ovechkin, not even Kane.
I don't mean to be a buzz kill but that is just the reality.
book;e ... and he was competitive as hell. when the stakes rose, so did his level of compete.
ReplyDeleteWas he 'clutch'?
He had his games, but I think just as often he let in a soft one. We all just remember the games that he stood on his head to win.
Don't get me wrong, the guy was a great goalie - but I think the term 'elite' is reserved for the top 5% or so and I don't think he is part of that group.
Kane isn't half the player Toews is.
ReplyDeletebook;e, ya, not an elite goaltender, but he also played on some pretty average teams too.
ReplyDeletegood goalie who won some real clutch games along the way, but probably not enough success to put him in the elite category.
Wendel Clark had all the makings of a great player. The Ovechkin of his era in that he had a big goal scoring shot and played the game balls out. Unfortunately for him his body couldn't take him where his heart wanted to go.
ReplyDeletePDO,
ReplyDeleteToews
NHL totals 222 83 108 191
Kane
NHL totals 244 76 154 230
Each season Kane has been a bit better than Toews statistically. The gap widened this year. That doesn't mean Kane can't slip backwards, just that if he continues to progress the way he is going he will be an elite player. It isn't just the points by the way, he is beginning to get it defensively as well. He is a big outplay.
Toews could take a big leap forward, but if he doesn't he isn't elite. At his age, as a forward he needs a season of forty plus goals or more than a point a game in my opinion. He has neither. He is an impact player certainly but not yet elite and starting to look a little stagnant in terms of development.
Linnaeus
ReplyDeleteIf you could draft either one of them: Kane or Toews....... you take Kane and, sorry, my team beats your team. So to the extent that Kane scores more points..... that is my gift to you
Do non-elite players put up 20 points in 12 playoff games? Do they become captain of their team before being able to legally buy their own beer? Do they make the Canadian Olympic team and flourish en route to gold? Do they contribute even when the rest of the team doesn't? And do they do all this while being one of the most defensively responsible scoring centers in the game?
ReplyDeleteIf I had to choose between the two, I'd take Toews hands down.
Not sure what we can glean from this article, but sounds like Tambo is intent on stashing most of the kids in OKC.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newsok.com/edmonton-oilers-promising-top-talent-for-okc/article/3461221?custom_click=headlines_widget
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletelinneaus wrote:
ReplyDelete"I think given their improved performance we really need to try to hear what the scouts are actually saying about Hall/Seguin and not let our fandom get in the way. The gist of it is that #1 this year, our luck, is going to be an impact but not elite NHL player. We need to dial down our expectations. We are talking Toews and Spezza here people, not Ovechkin, not even Kane.
I don't mean to be a buzz kill but that is just the reality."
This does sound like the general consensus, but I'm not sure EDM's head scout agrees. Stu McGregor could have reduced the expectations for the #1 pick (about 11 minutes into the second hour of today's show), but didn't take any steps in that direction on today's Oilers Lunch.
Not sure what we can glean from this article, but sounds like Tambo is intent on stashing most of the kids in OKC
ReplyDeleteI think thats standard marketing talk. They kept telling Springfield they were going to load the team up with talent as well.
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteI heard MBS on Stauffer's show too and was surprised when he didn't take the chance to temper expectations with 1st OV this year.
Maybe now that Pendergast is gone MBS feels he needs to take over the role of Minister in charge of Over-hyping Prospects.
Linnaeus, Toews doesn't look to have stagnated at all by my eye. Each season he's trended upwards in his level of play and responsibility. Sure he's not scoring like Kane, and his point totals don't look too impressive, but he brings it every night and plays the toughs while he's putting up his points.
ReplyDeleteKane started out with the buttery minutes and he still gets the best offensive minutes unless I'm mistaken. The playoffs have shown that Toews can explode. If anything Toews seems similar to a Gilmore type developmental path. Very very good defensively at an unbelievably young age while putting up decent points. After a few seasons and some opportunities he seems primed to explode offensively.
Given a choice of the two, I'd go Toews right now hands down. Who would you rather have, a Doug Gilmour or a Luc Robitaille?
Bank Shot, they did load Springfield up with some pretty good talent for an AHL team. The problem is that Oilers called all that talent up as injuries mounted.
That article has a factual error. Seguin and Hall can't play in Okla City next season.
ReplyDeleteThat article has a factual error. Seguin and Hall can't play in Okla City next season.
ReplyDeleteMight take a while for OKC sports writers to grasp the nuances of the CHL/NHL relationship.
It also takes a while for granite to erode.
1979: Rob Ramage (no)
ReplyDelete1980: Doug Wickenheiser (no)
1981: Dale Hawerchuk (yes)
1982: Gord Kluzak (no)
1983: Brian Lawton (no)
1984: Mario Lemieux (yes)
1985 Wendel Clark (yes)
1986 Joe Murphy (no)
1987 Pierre Turgeon (yes)
1988 Mike Modano (yes)
1989 Mats Sundin (yes)
1990 Owen Nolan (no)
1991 Eric Lindros (yes)
1992 Roman Hamrlik (no)
1993 Alexandre Daigle (no)
1994 Ed Jovanovski (no)
1995 Bryan Berard (no)
1996 Chris Phillips (no)
1997 Joe Thornton (yes)
1998 Vincent Lecavalier (no)
1999 Patrik Stefan (no)
2000 Rick DiPietro (no)
2001 Ilya Kovalchuk (yes)
2002 Rick Nash (yes)
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury (yes)
2004 Alexander Ovechkin (yes)
2005 Sidney Crosby (yes)
2006 Erik Johnson (no)
2007 Patrick Kane (no)
2008 Steven Stamkos (yes)
2009 John Tavares (yes)
I'd say closer to 50% that we get an elite or near elite player with the first overall pick. Only a few players on the list who didn't turn into highly effect NHLers.
ReplyDelete1979: Rob Ramage (no)
1980: Doug Wickenheiser (no)
1981: Dale Hawerchuk (yes)
1982: Gord Kluzak (no)
1983: Brian Lawton (no)
1984: Mario Lemieux (yes)
1985 Wendel Clark (no)
1986 Joe Murphy (no)
1987 Pierre Turgeon (yes)
1988 Mike Modano (yes)
1989 Mats Sundin (yes)
1990 Owen Nolan (no)
1991 Eric Lindros (yes)
1992 Roman Hamrlik (no)
1993 Alexandre Daigle (no)
1994 Ed Jovanovski (no)
1995 Bryan Berard (no)
1996 Chris Phillips (no)
1997 Joe Thornton (yes)
1998 Vincent Lecavalier (no)
1999 Patrik Stefan (no)
2000 Rick DiPietro (no)
2001 Ilya Kovalchuk (yes)
2002 Rick Nash (no)
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury (yes)
2004 Alexander Ovechkin (yes)
2005 Sidney Crosby (yes)
2006 Erik Johnson (no)
2007 Patrick Kane (no)
2008 Steven Stamkos (yes)
2009 John Tavares (yes)