Tonight we know two dance partners (Chicago, San Jose) and await the final two. We have a chance to see Montreal-Boston in the other semi, and as a consolation prize for history two prime expansion guests (Pittsburgh and Philadelphia). If this were the final round at the Masters, this group would represent Woods, Nicklaus, Arnie and Trevino. All. Star. Cast. In 1971, Ken Dryden blocked out the sun. Is Halak hockey's Haley's comet? Destiny awaits.
These are the pennant winners (SC finalists) since 1967's expansion. Toronto's wonderful streak continues unabated, like a twig on the shoulders of a mighty stream (thank you and we miss you, John Candy).
- Montreal (11): '68, '69, '71, '73, '76-'79, '86, '89, '93
- Boston (7): '70, '72, '74, '77, '78, '88, '90
- Edmonton (7): '83, '84, '85, '87, '88, '90, '06
- Philadephia (7): '74, '75, '76, '80, '85, '87, '97
- Detroit (6): '95, '97, '98, '02, '08, '09
- New York Islanders (5): '80, '81, '82, '83, '84
- Pittsburgh Penguins (4): '91, '92, '08, '09
- Dallas (4): '81, '91, '99, '00
- New Jersey (4): '95, '00, '01, '03
- Calgary (3): '86, '89, '04
- Chicago (3): '71, '73, '92
- New York Rangers (3): '72, '79, '94
- St. Louis (3): '68, '69, '70
- Anaheim (2): '03, '07
- Buffalo (2): '75, '99
- Carolina (2): '02, '06
- Colorado (2): '96, '01
- Vancouver (2): '82, '94
- Florida (1): '96
- Los Angeles (1): '93
- Ottawa (1): '07
- Tampa Bay (1): '04
- Washington (1): '98
- Atlanta
- Columbus
- Minnesota
- Nashville
- Phoenix
- San Jose
- Toronto
Giants walk among us.
A Chicago-Montreal Final would be dandy!
ReplyDeleteIt might happen. Habs up by a goal and the Penguins looking like the Greg Polis 7.
ReplyDeleteI love the analytical posts, but this variety gives me shivers down the back. Takes me back too - HNIC on saturday, Walter Disney on Sunday. Pretty much all there was.
ReplyDeleteFleury is a cunt....
ReplyDeleteDaryl - and nothing would disappoint like this week's Disney being one of those documentary-style nature bits about frolicking raccoons or some such..
ReplyDeleteWOOO hOOO!
ReplyDelete2-0!
Moore exploded the 2nd rounder we gave up. Pens are shaky and starting to play individually. We got them in the ropes.
It's been a few years since I moved to Montreal. I've been roundly indifferent to the trials and tribulations of the under-sized and rudderless (sound familiar?) Habitants.
ReplyDeleteBut...something...is...happening to me. I'm - invested....
In the words of George Costanza:
"I think it moved."
Forgive me, father.
Are you Latvian Orthodox Ben?
ReplyDeleteBen: It's cause they have heart and they don't give up. Something i think i never saw in my lifetime before.
ReplyDeleteNow Lowetide's blog is infected with Habs fans!
ReplyDeleteMan, you can't say Halak is stealing it tonight, Montreal is flat-out outplaying tonight.
ReplyDeleteHail Mary, full of grace the lord is with thee.
ReplyDeleteBlessed art thou amongst women and blessed is the fruit of thy womb, Jesus.
Ha! Exactly Deano! Pray for some cartoons.
ReplyDeleteKinda wishing I got the game down here now - sounds like its worth watching.
WHAT THE FUN?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteholy crap. tuned in at the right time I guess.
ReplyDeleteFleury completely imploded.
ReplyDeleteHopefully the Bruins can out boring the Habs.
ReplyDeleteSo does this mean the Penguins model is out the door?
ReplyDeleteI liked the nature stuff on Disney, way better then the endless stream of moral lesson movies starring a teen aged Kurt Russell.
Was always disappointed if it wasn't a cartoon though.
Everyone on the TV keeps talking about the 93 Habs, but this is much closer to the Ought Six Oil.
So does this mean the Penguins model is out the door?
ReplyDeleteI liked the nature stuff on Disney, way better then the endless stream of moral lesson movies starring a teen aged Kurt Russell.
Was always disappointed if it wasn't a cartoon though.
Everyone on the TV keeps talking about the 93 Habs, but this is much closer to the Ought Six Oil.
Pittsburgh did come back from being down 3-0 against Ottawa in G6....
ReplyDeleteWell they can score goals but the stupidity must stop.
ReplyDeleteHow many times has Malkin made a pass to nobody with no pressure on him?
ReplyDeleteWould Malkin rahter be @ the Worlds?
ReplyDeleteYou know what's funny? There is a thread between G7 SCF 1971 and this game. Hawks were up 2-0 and nothing doing for the Habs until late second period when Lemaire scored from just inside the center ice line.
ReplyDeleteHabs caught fire in the 3rd and that was all she wrote. Who is Pittsburgh's Henri Richard?
From Proice hockey:
ReplyDeleteBlackhawks' coach Billy Reay takes up the story:
"I remember Hull hit the crossbar with a shot that would have made it 3-0. Then (Jacques) Lemaire scored on a long shot to make it 2-1. I thought that was the year we were going to win it, but that's the way things go in hockey."
Lemaire's goal was a weak one, a floating slapshot from center ice. "It must have dropped six inches," Stan Mikita recalled. "Tony (Esposito, the Chicago goalie) was notorious for not being able to see the puck from long distances. I was in the [penalty] box on that end when he took the shot. I might have had a better view than Tony."
It would not be fair to pin the loss on Esposito, but the goal appeared to deflate the Blackhawks. Henri Richard followed up with a pair of goals, giving the Canadiens a 3-2 victory and their third Stanley Cup in four years. For Chicago fans, it was another collapse by a great team that too often found a way to fall short when the games mattered most.
I don't think the Pens have a Pocket Rocket. Maybe Kennedy?
ReplyDeleteFirst playoff action I've watched this year, just got home after taking soup and berries over to my ailing friend =(. Times like these I wish I had a car.
When Gainey signed Camalleri and Gionta to the money and term he did, and then traded a useful player, and their best prospect in McDonaugh with a pick for Gomez I thought he'd finally gone completely batshit. It's sorta too bad he stepped down cause right now he wouldn't be able to pay for a thing in Montreal.
I still think those contracts may come back to bite them in the posterior, and the Habs aren't this good (horseshoes like I haven't seen since the Oilers run) but for the short term Gainey looks like a wizard.
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ReplyDelete"I might have had a better view than Tony."
ReplyDeleteWhat a line.
20 minutes of efforts, that's all it takes.
ReplyDeleteAnd who would be Montreal's Magnuson?
ReplyDeletemichael: Josh Gorges. No doubt.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised that Pang and PDO are the only two who've called out Fleury. He played goal like Theo Fleury tonight and has been inconsistent all spring.
ReplyDeleteLT: Cause Brent Jonhson is the backup? There's 2 goals you can't blame him on. Moore and Cammaleri's shots were close to perfection.
ReplyDeletePitts makes this 4-3 before the 10 minute mark and they're taking this.
ReplyDeleteFPB:
ReplyDeleteCamms shot was no where near perfection, Fleury was horribly out of a position.
Camm had a great release, no doubt, and got some heat on it... but that shot should only beat Fleury of it's top cheddar, and it was far from it. It was about 2 feet off of the ice and was a foot inside the post... he should have never had to stick out to his glove to stop it.
As for Moore... you can't give that up in the NHL. He was caught napping.
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ReplyDeleteOk, these NHL Playoffs History Will Be Made commercials are getting ridiculous:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXDDMcny8LQ
Really...Really?
*Waiting for the Crosby magic*
ReplyDeleteCrosby just made Gil look like a donkey...
ReplyDeleteHe's about to take this game over.
Book it.
Draws a penalty...It begins?
ReplyDeleteHalak is channeling Dryden this period. Maybe he'll channel Dave Dryden in the last 10 minutes?
ReplyDeleteThat save on Malkin likely saved the series for Montreal.
ReplyDeleteFuck.
Jesus you guys are downers.
ReplyDeleteYou don't even like Pittsburgh. You just don't like the Habs.
I'm glad Halak isn't completly blind.
FPB: We're NOT Habs fans. You're going to have to live with it, since, you know, you're a Habs fan posting on an Oilers blog.
ReplyDeleteWe're not with you. Honest.
fpb > Oilogosphere
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe that Sutter settled on Olli Jokinen over Lombardi AND Camelleri. Both affected him also giving up the 13th overall to Phoenix.
ReplyDeleteAlso Gionta is an example of a small guy making it in the NHL by being freakishly built...dude is a tank.
LT, you keep reminding me of my age...the first Stanley Cup I followed from beginning to end was in '71, and my oldest strong hockey memory was Dryden kicking out his right leg to rob the Bruins.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it will be Chicago's turn this year...they haven't won since the year I was born. The streak will not hit 50.
If you're the Penguins, do you make some changes during the summer? And is Tambellini writing "the Montreal model" in his scribbler as we speak?
ReplyDeleteLT: Releasing everyone then signing a bunch of free agents while trading it's best prospect to get a quality (But highly paid) center?
ReplyDeleteSomehow this doesn't give me confidence they will repeat.
Oh and Deslauriers should punt Khabibulin and be in the elite that year?
The Pens might go after some wingers to replace Guerin & Ponikarovsky (who wasn't what they hoped he'd be for them). Maybe a very good backup like Biron.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how much cap space they have though, and it cost them two very good physical shutdown D in Scuderi and Gill last Summer. Nothing against Goligoski or Letang, but they don't scream tough to play against.
I've had a soft spot for the Habs since their 86 cup. I won't be upset if they go far this year. Cammalleri and Halak have been super fun to watch.
ReplyDeleteTabarnak!
ReplyDeleteWell if you're the Habs who would you rather play next round? Bruins with their button down style (and a coach who they know) or a tough team with a huge question in goal.
ReplyDeleteChara or Pronger?
It's an interesting question, I expect Boston would be tougher opponent.
I've always liked Gionta, and I know Cammie had a great run last season, but these playoffs have been an eye opener.
ReplyDeleteHow would people rate the Habs knocking off the Caps and Pens to the Oil taking out the Wings and Sharks?
uni - Biron's a better starter than he is a backup.
ReplyDeleteUni:
ReplyDeleteVegas Odds against Caps: -350
Vegas Odds against Pens: -310
So Vegas tought the Habs only had 1 chance out of 10,1.
LT: I don't know. I'd go with the Flyers because they have shaky goaltending, injuries and etc. But then again i don't necessarily want to face a team that just pulled a feat that was last made 40 years ago.
But meh i don't play that game. It doesn't matter who we face it's how we handle it. Let's not fall in the trap in which our opponents fell.
FPB: If your goalie keeps playing like this I don't think much else matters.
ReplyDeleteWith all the money they gave Fleury for being a winner, they're stuck with him, but he's always going to be the rate limiting factor. They'll be able to get by with mediocre goaltending some years, but it's going to burn them in the early rounds in others a la the Red Wings this past decade.
ReplyDeletePlus, they need some wingers, but that's easier said than done when you blew your only useful trading chips on a couple months of Hossa and Chris Kunitz.
Krejci is out and Savard can't be 100% healthy. The Flyers have AHL goaltending. Then again, I can easily see Carcillo (or any of half a dozen Flyers) pulling a Kypreos on Halak in g1.
ReplyDeleteAs long as Bos/Phi goes to g7, I imagine the Habs will be happy. It's not like either team is the Caps or Pens.
I think we have the Habs model - get out shot by a ridiculous margin, give up territory wherever possible, build a top six under six (feet) and then play the whole season without your best player. I guess JDD is no Halak...
ReplyDelete(To be honest, I cannot explain how Montreal keeps winning with my knowledge of hockey. It is a mystery to me in every game.)
So who does Hockey Canada invite to the Worlds - Fleury or Luongo?
ReplyDeleteYikes.
Kevin it's obvious, FPB sacrificed his best village chickens to the gods.
ReplyDeleteEither that or Gainey is some sort of warlock?
Crosby sounds like one of the statzi bloggers: "I don't know many teams that go out and try to get outchanced 2 to 1 and just hang in there."
ReplyDeleteYes they allow a lot of shots. But a great part of those shots are perimeter shots. I mean give that D credit. Crosby looked like a ghost in this serie.
ReplyDeleteKevin:
ReplyDeleteLuck.
PDO: Yes that makes perfect sense.
ReplyDeleteI mean it's not like our goalie is good or our shooters clutch.
Well 17.4MM is a lot to spend on 2 centers, even if they are Crosby & Malkin.
ReplyDeleteThe downside of winning the cup is everyone wants a raise. (or getting to the SCF, just ask Vish)
Losing Gill and Scuderi hurt, they ate up a ton of tough minutes.
Now they will probably lose Gonchar.
They need to load up on the Sidenburgs of the world (shut down D who are relatively cheap) if they want to compete.
If they can exchange Malkin for a younger talented F to play with Crosby (along with picks/prospects, and some cap space), and rely on Staal to play 2C, they might be able to resign Gonchar and have him teach Goligoski for a few years and be cup competitive.
I think Gonchar is more valuable to them than Malkin, and they can turn Malkin into some future pieces.
So how come Montreal's goalie couldn't have a .950 SV% in the regular season?
ReplyDeleteWhy can't Camm shoot at 25% in regular season?
Luck.
They're rolling nothign but sevens right now.
It's going to be fun when they come up snake eyes and nobody in Montreal can understand how getting out chanced 2-1 isn't a recipe for success.
PDO: Yes that makes perfect sense.
ReplyDeleteI mean it's not like our goalie is good or our shooters clutch.
I think I'm actually happy about the Habs' win (I haven't decided for sure yet), but let's all hold the following truths to be self-evident:
1. Eighth seeds do not make the conference finals without luck - piles and piles of luck. It was true in 2006, and it's true now.
2. Teams do not allow an average of more than 34 shots per game and still win their playoff series without luck - piles and piles of luck.
3. Goalies do not put up .933 save percentages over extended periods without luck - piles and piles of luck.
Teams also don't make the conference finals without skill, so full marks to the Habs for that. But they've been lucky to get past two superior teams (one of which didn't play as if it was that superior on this particular night) so far.
Of course Fleury is an unknown.
ReplyDeleteHe was good enough to win and contribute last year, but hurt them this year.
Goalies is voodoo.
PDO: Halak is 17-1-1 in total when he receives 35+ shots.
ReplyDeleteHeh. Btw he's not a ,950, but ,930.
It's called Upping your game cause it's playoffs.
That's shit that happens in the playoffs. You don't win without luck.
Well I don't bet but if the Habs make it to the finals and the odds are anywhere near reasonable it might be time to bet some beer money on the WC team.
ReplyDeleteIt's called Upping your game cause it's playoffs.
ReplyDeleteSo does Halak just, like, decide to stop shots that, were it the regular season, he'd let in? What's his thought process, exactly?
Hawks or SJS will rip apart whatever joke team comes out of the East.
ReplyDeleteSo does Halak just, like, decide to stop shots that, were it the regular season, he'd let in? What's his thought process, exactly?
ReplyDeletePfft, hockey isn't about winning, it's about creating excitement for the fans by sneaking in as the 8 seed and then turning it on.
It's pretty amazing that not a single team left in the East would have even qualified for the playoffs in the West.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's with the easier schedule.
Steve: Same logic for players.
ReplyDeleteSo what players just decide they shoot wide or put no efforts into regular games. What's theyr tought process?
You know goaltending takes efforts?
You know moving across the crease and lifting the glove and blocker in time requires streght and endurance when your bombarded
Ah, Halak saves energy throughout the season by not lifting his arms to make saves, to ensure he has enough energy to turn it on in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIt all makes sense now!
So what players just decide they shoot wide or put no efforts into regular games. What's theyr tought process?
ReplyDeleteThere is no thought process; it's largely the vagueries of chance (well, not true chance, but something approximating it pretty closely).
You know moving across the crease and lifting the glove and blocker in time requires streght and endurance when your bombarded
Yes. But it takes the same amount of it in the playoffs as in the regular season. And unless you're telling me that Halak decides to put in less of it during the regular season, I don't see how this helps your clutch hypothesis.
is Tambellini writing "the Montreal model" in his scribbler as we speak?
ReplyDeleteYou think he's literate eh LT? Interesting.
mc79: can scribbler mean colouring book?
ReplyDeleteScott you beat me to it. I was gonna say it was in purple crayon.
ReplyDeleteSo does Halak just, like, decide to stop shots that, were it the regular season, he'd let in? What's his thought process, exactly?
ReplyDeleteI think that's a simplistic interpretation Steve. Some players are able to heighten their skills at times of pressure. Some do it for stretches and then don't repeat it. Its more than luck because you can see the difference. If you have every played sports you know that sometimes you are better than other times - the chemicals and mechanics of your brain just somehow come together to make it all work.
To think about this another way, sometimes players 'fall apart' and cant seem to do anything right - is it because they just decided to?
What about 'nerves'. Sometimes nerviousness causes players to play more poorly. Well, what is the biophysical opposite of nervousness?
So, when players seem to be performing like super hero's it can be luck, but I think it can also be everything coming together - the mental, the physical, the situation, etc. It just works. Two years later, the same player might be struggling for a spot on an AHL team, but in the moment, they are a star.
MC: Perhaps he was using foolscap.
ReplyDeleteSo, if Malkin was on the market, who makes a splash for him?
ReplyDeletePresumably Pittsburgh would want back wingers and D.
Funny thing is, I think Calgary may have been a team chasing after him instantly if they still had Dion...
This Mtl team is pretty much 2003 Anaheim with Giguere. Edmonton with that playoff lineup for the entire year I think would have probably won the division.
ReplyDeletewow - terrible grammar by me in the last comment - sorry.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, one more thing to add. I think some players have a better mental and biophysical response to pressure. This makes them better 'clutch players' than others. Its not so much a choice, but part of how they are made up.
Hawks or SJS will rip apart whatever joke team comes out of the East.
ReplyDeleteSo long as they don't beat the crap out of eachother, but watching Boston choke and Montreal knock off two top eastern teams. All you can say is "lol eastern conference"
Is there any statistical evidence of this skill heightening, bookie? I've never believed it and am pretty sure its hogwash after watching sports all these years.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet random every time.
Yeah, I'm with Ben... the '06 Oilers aren't a good comparison.
ReplyDeleteThey're an outlier, in that they were a much better team than a normal #8.
They had ECHL goaltending for 3/4 of the season and upped it to above average NHL goaltending through a trade... I highly doubt any other team any time recently has been able to make such a big improvement to their team with a single move.
Yeah, I take the points about Edmonton not being a great comparitor. Still, by almost any measure they were outplayed by Detroit in that first series; it took a lot of luck to get past that one. I'd have to look again at the San Jose series; I remember that one being more even.
ReplyDeleteI'd also say that Detroit and San Jose were much better teams than a Washington team built up on the easiest schedule in the NHL and a mediocre Pens team.
ReplyDeletePDO: Wait what...
ReplyDeleteOvechkin, Semin, Backstrom, Green, Knuble, Laich, Fleishmann, Fehr, Bélanger.
That team was fucking stacked.
PDO,
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, Mtl was up 10-8 in shots and 2-0 after the first period, the 'let's get outshot by an order of magnitude and pull it out of our ass' is how the SOG looks after two more periods of one team playing from behind and another with the lead. Pitts were badly outdone in the first, like they had the yips or something.
Detroit won the scoring chance battle in that series but outside of Game 1, which the Oilers lost anyways, I don't think the margins were very high in most of the games.
ReplyDeleteAs for the SJ series. The Sharks dominated Game 1 with Game 2 being more even. The rest of the series was to my recollection tilted in Edmonton's favor.
As for the clutch factor, I think there are factors other than chance that come into play:
ReplyDelete1. I suspect that there are players who genuinely don't work as hard in the regular season as they do in the playoffs; I hypothesize that a guy like Glenn Anderson could have built his clutch reputation in part on this, though of course I don't know for sure.
2. There is a different style of hockey in the playoffs than in the regular season, and some players' styles are better-suited to that style.
3. Some players deal badly with pressure, and make more mental errors in high pressure situations. Players less subject to this effect could appear to be clutch by virtue of their performance against opponents more subject to this effect.
But you're not going to convince me that a goalie can sustain a .933 save percentage on those factors, unless that performance is replicated in a large sample size of similarly "clutch" situations; until then, that's luck.
PDO,
ReplyDeleteLA may take a long look if its a choice between Malkin and Kovy, although not giving up anything but money to get Kovy probably tips the scales, but Malkin is more versatile and can play in different spots in the line up.
Milquetoast may delcare they are ready to compete after the draft and trade Hemsky/Whitney and declare they are now following the Pittsburg model. *shudder*
NJ has some room, but Lou may not want to give up the talent going back and he alreay lost a couple of useful pieces for 25 games of Kovy (see, the chance of winning even makes Lou do sub-optimal things, although he may have been auditioning his team to Kovy, and its not as bad if they end up signing him)
Also,
FPB,
I once had black 2 hit 4 times in a row on a roulette table (while I had it covered...yay for winning druken -EV games!)
The wheel never did it again, I guess he raised his game up to the next
level for me.
Also, my ambivalence about the Habs will disappear in the next series; fuck Philly.
ReplyDeleteLT, if it is all random and no player can heighten their performance over certain periods than why would there be any consistent differentiation between any player taking shots that have a random chance of going in..
ReplyDeleteI hope you were being sarcastic...
Are not the best players the ones that refine their physical skills but also commit to focusing their mental game?!..
Is Malkin a bum for multiple games at a time because of random chance or rather that his mental focus (or some similar aspect) is not a consistent, un-erring, factor...
Not every thing/chance/occurrence is because of skill or superior mental focus, there are flukes and lucky plays that can make big differences in outcome. Not every save can or should be credited to halak as proof that he is an amazing clutch playoff goalie.. but to say it is all random is just...
Consistent luckiness (always coming up heads) is far less probable than the 'game' being weighted other factors, such as skill in this case...
Crosby has scored over 500 points in the NHL by 23 years old because he is more lucky than 99.99% of every other person that plays hockey...
stupid
LT:
ReplyDeleteI've never seen a study that could mathematically or somehow scientifically prove the 'skill-heightening', 'big-game' player theory.
I've seen a few to the contrary, that show it's simply a random process. A couple were from baseball, but they were in books so I don't have a link handy.
The trouble being of course that randomness is hard to detect from within the chaos, by definition. And as such, Halak is now 'trying harder' (and whatever else Habs fans come up with).
Oilmaniac: My point is that a player who scores a point a game during the regular seasons (or several regular seasons) will score at about the same level during the playoffs (or several playoffs) and the major variable is random chance.
ReplyDeleteGlenn Anderson
NHL regular seasons: .973 ppg
NHL playoff games: .951 ppg
You can find seasons where he looked clutch and seasons where he looked stone cold. But there it is.
PDO and Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteTo spin this back to the Oilers, IF Pit is putting Malkin on the block, and PIT is looking for young cheap players, think they might have some interest in #1 OV?
Oilmaniac:
ReplyDeleteCrosby regular season - 506 points in 371 games, 1.36 ppg.
Crosby playoffs - 82 points in 61 games, 1.34 ppg.
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteI think Pitt would salivate at a few things the Oilers have.
1OV, MPS, Hemsky, Penner, they may enen like Gagner. They like Whitney too, but needed a winger and in their eyes Goligoski made Whitney expendable to get Kunitz.
I hope Milquetoast doesn't get any ideas. I'm not sure any player is worth that much cap space, and I'm pretty sure Malkin isn't.
NHL regular seasons: .973 ppg
ReplyDeleteNHL playoff games: .951 ppg
Well how about that? Turns out I don't even need a hypothesis for Anderson's clutch performance, because it was figmentary.
Malkin is just flat out not as good at even-strength hockey as Crosby or more than a few centres in this league. He's terrific on the PP and can finish, but he gives back a ton at 5on5.
ReplyDeleteI mean I thought he'd make progress on this but the play just dies on him all the fucking time.
Montreal looked decent in the first period and part of that is just Pittsburgh's horrific forward depth.
Still, Pittsburgh flat-out dominated games 1-6 territorially and as much as one is tempted to say that Crosby was "shut down" he was actually the opposite, he killed his matchups. Just check out the scoring chances at enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com. Crosby just couldn't finish, and for the guy for whom narratives have been written for winning the Cup and scoring the gold medal goal... the un-clutch take is disingenious.
Montreal got flat-out-and-out lucky.
Clutch is not always outperforming your season. Just scoring at the right time.
ReplyDeleteBut i would like to see the stats if in Playoffs goals go up or down compared to season.
Is there any statistical evidence of this skill heightening, bookie? I've never believed it and am pretty sure its hogwash after watching sports all these years.
ReplyDeleteand
But you're not going to convince me that a goalie can sustain a .933 save percentage on those factors, unless that performance is replicated in a large sample size of similarly "clutch" situations; until then, that's luck.
I think there could be some 'clutch' in that some players have better nerves than others - this is probably more true in indidivual sports than in team sports. Some players may also be better at varying their style of play depending on the state of the game. If this is true, then there should be players who are better shutdown players and players who are better 'come from behind players' and it could be checked statistically. I am not keen enough to know the studies, so I can't make a good arguemnt here.
However, I do believe that sometimes 'things come together' for a player beyond the luck within the game. If we consider variables that are not fully controlable (emotional state, natural production of testosterone, twitch muscle reflex, and who knows what else) then there should be times when things line up good and times when things line up poorly. So, maybe it is luck, but I think some of that luck occurs outside of the game itself.
Now, this is not really 'clutch' because many of the factors have nothing to do with the importance of the game/period/competition. Some players might have their best playing periods when it doesn't count. Others find themselves on a run to the cup.
As per sample size, 15-20 games of playoff hockey are a small sample, but if a goalie consistantly plays significantly better than average, I suspect it is because he is 'on his game' as opposed to lucky bounces. The odds of random luck going the way of a goalie for 80% of the games he plays in is very low once you go above a sample of 4 or 5 games. The luck should be trending towards 50% by that point (lucky 50% of the time and unlucky 50% of the time). I am considering luck here as the chaotic aspects of the game that would affect shots going in vs shots not going in.
If you don't believe that players can be 'on their game', then you also cannot believe that players can be 'off their game'.
The statistics that you quote suggest that in the long run, they thier highs and lows are similar in clutch and non clutch situations. However, they don't counter the suggestion that a goalie can get on a magnificant run that is based upon factors beyond the luck of the game.
Perhaps the reality is that ALL NHL games are of such a level that the clutch factor is irrelevant (nerves, etc.). It could be that clutch exists in beer leagues, but not in the upper levels of hockey. This seems logical because those individuals who don't bring their 'clutch' game 100% of the time might find themselves out competed by those who do.
Clutch is not always outperforming your season. Just scoring at the right time.
ReplyDeleteAh, so we're on to the BIG GOALS hypothesis.
See here for a partial dismantling of that. More generally, are you sincerely arguing that non-clutch players score more of their goals at points when the game is, say, 4-1 than do clutch players, and that this difference is statistically significant?
Sorry, this is the link I meant to provide in the last comment.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree that good players generate a large positive scoring chance differential. Ovechkin before and Crosby now were simply stymied by goaltending.
ReplyDeleteHalak's save percentage over 14 games is 0.933, which is reasonable. What is astounding is his save percentage in elimination games, which is so far >0.960. Given random chance, it seems unlikely that Halak will have that save percentage every time the Canadiens face elimination (assuming they face elimination again these playoffs).
In any case, congrats to flamingpavelbure for his team advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. I don't have anything against the Habs... well, okay, the Habs could have beaten Calgary in 1989. Then again, Montreal did beat Calgary in 1986 after Steve Smith's own-goal. I think if Calgary had won the Cup in '86, Oilers fans would have never heard the end of it.
Ah jesus. You take ALL THE FUN, away from a cup run.
ReplyDeleteIf it happens to the Oil i'l come raining down with stats all year. Just to take the magic away.
A simplified viewpoint: Habs went 8-6 over the last 14. Seems about right for an 8th place team. It's the timing of the wins that mattered.
ReplyDeleteI hate the Habs more than most Oiler fans, but I don't see Philly or Boston being a problem for them. 2 Slow, undisciplined, injury ravaged teams, one with goaltending questions and the other with serious problems scoring.
Then again, Montreal did beat Calgary in 1986 after Steve Smith's own-goal.
ReplyDeleteCan we GET OVER THAT, ALREADY?
Oh, and Bookie, there's no doubt that players go through periods where they're playing well ("on their game") and periods where they're playing poorly ("off their game"). But as you acknowledge, that doesn't justify the clutch hypothesis. Besides that, I think a much higher percentage of those situations than is generally acknowledged is also attributable to luck.
Actually, I should clarify... a 0.933 save percentage is reasonable for either an elite goalie or one that is on a hot streak over 14 games... Roloson had a 0.932 save percentage over a similar number of games in 2006.
ReplyDeleteoops, and just to clarify - my long post actually defends a different point than the one that LT counters. So, I am kind of changing the debate midstream which is kind of rude of me.
ReplyDeleteLT - as I mentioned at the end - maybe clutch doesn't exist at the top levels. I could very much have been wrong when I casually suggested it did earlier.
If there is clutch it probably comes within games (when the team is up or down by a goal or two) and this would be difficult to measure). It may not exist in the playoffs vs regular season. I really don't have a clue.
I guess the conversation shifted from clutch to streakiness...
ReplyDeleteOne thing I have noticed is that the Olympic years really play havoc with the playoff seedings. In 2006, in the west, seeds 5,6,7,8 all made it to the 2nd round.
ReplyDeleteIn 2010, in the east, seeds 4,6,7,8 all made it to the 2nd round.
Is this an anomaly or the standard.
BGE: Well Halak wasn't that far off that save% this season. So i think it's reasonable.
ReplyDeleteI don't think any goalie had a resume like his in games his team got overplayed tough (17-1-1) but i seen similar cases with Kolzig, Hasek etc.
I think Hasek had a ,937 season in Buffalo.
OT: Eberle should make his WC debut on Friday morning and he may get some significant ice time with Stamkos and Smyth out.
ReplyDeleteFPB:
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the victory. Smile. Kiss a girl. Its spring and your team is in the final four. Don't let us impact your mood.
LT: Thanks. That sounded more like a human being :).
ReplyDeleteAnyone i'm off. Have a good night.
Is this an anomaly or the standard.
ReplyDeleteHere are the teams that advanced to the second round in Olympic years:
1998
East: 4,6,7,8
West: 1,3,4,7
2002
East: 3,4,7,8
West: 1,2,3,4
2006
East: 1,2,3,4
West: 5,6,7,8
2010
East: 4,6,7,8
West: 1,2,3,5
So, in Olympic years, the higher seed as a 56.25% winning percentage, which does seem low to me. I have no idea what their winning percentage would normally be, though, so I don't really have anything to base it on (plus, a good analysis might weight the 1-8 series, which went 50-50 in those years, more highly than the 4-5 series).
In summary, I have no answer to your question.
And is Tambellini writing "the Montreal model" in his scribbler as we speak?
ReplyDeleteWhat, you mean make some terrible trades that downgrade your team, be forced to step down as a result of poor play and injuries, only to watch one of the two young goalies you've been playing in the NHL for 3 seasons roll hard sixes two series' in a row?
I like the coke machine plan better. It looks much better on paper, even if it is in crayon on foolscap
Okay, you piqued my curiosity, so I figured out non-Olympic years: in the first round of the playoffs in non-Olympic years since 1998, the higher seed has enjoyed a 67.1875% winning percentage, considerably higher than the 56.25% they've enjoyed in Olympic years. I'll let somebody who remembers first year statistics better than I do tell us over what confidence interval that's significant.
ReplyDeleteSteve: It was just something I randomly stumbled on that the Habs are having a 2006 Oiler type run. And then I remebered the Oilers beating out a stacked Colorado team in 1998.
ReplyDeleteTo me it just seems the better teams run out of gas because naturally since they are better they send more players to the Olympics, therfore they play more games.
There seem to be a high amount of 7 and 8 seeds that get wins than they otherwise would.
FPB,
ReplyDeleteSo an Oiler blog with a high percentage population of math oriented thinkers are taking the fun out of an improbable Habs playoff run?
You don't say.
In other news crime rates tend to be higher in low income neighborhoods.
FPB -- LT is right: enjoy yourself! Montreal has already accomplished some pretty special things in the playoffs, and you should celebrate. Don't let the peanut gallery grind you down.
ReplyDeleteAs an Oiler fan, I had no problem cheering for the Habs (they've always been my second favorite team). Thrilled that they won and hope we can see some more miracles out of them before these playoffs are over. In fact, I'd say those little magnificent bastards are a hard team to dislike right now.
For those interested, NHL.com's insiders have presented their second round of mockdrafts. Among the highlights:
ReplyDelete- Hall 2 - Seguin 1.
- If we want McIlrath, we're going to have to acquire a pick 15 or earlier, because he's not getting by Anaheim.
- Gudbranson now the consensus #3 pick.
- Alex Petrovic is available at #31 on one of 3 lists.
- Stanislav Galiev available at #31 on two of 3 lists.
Mockdrafts can be found here: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=62435
Though this Cuntreal team is easier to root for then almost any in recent history, it's still Cuntreal and every win is accompanied by fan reaction unmatched by any other following.
ReplyDeleteHateful.
To retort to the anderson / crosby stats taken over their careers..
ReplyDeleteMy arguement was based around the mental aspect of the game, which is not meant to hide within the intangible.. Crobsy is consistently good, in my opinion, because he has developed the physical tools but also the mental tools to focus and deliver consistently.. he is a f-ing pro, like few others.. which goes along with those consistent reg season and playoff totals.. He is ready 'every game' it would seem...
Many players are not as refined as ol crosby, (even he cant score 1.36 points 'every game'..) and i would speculate this group would probably including Mr. Anderson..
"if it is all random and no player can heighten their performance over certain periods than why would there be any consistent differentiation between any player taking shots that have a random chance of going in.."
With anderson's totaled playoff ppg totals you avoid looking at the certain periods of heightened performance and mixed those periods in with all the others... Just from personal experience, there are times that I perform (work, sports, sex haha) better than others because of whatever is going on in life (because people are more than just players of a sport or worker in a company).. people like crosby differentiate themselves by applying sublime work ethic and mental focus / commitment and push away those distractions...
But I am getting away from the original point that people can focus in and faze out.. it is not too hard to speculate that anderson was not always dialed in, but I was too young to have a good grasp of this era...
BTW, I commend your brevity and apologize for my lack there of...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletehaha, damn steve, you caught my off hand comment haha...
ReplyDeleteThat was why i deleted it, knew it was hoop'd.. anyways
A couple of points:
ReplyDelete- On the MTL vs. BOS/PHI question, they were 5-1 against the Bruins and 2-2 against Philly.
- On Halak upping his game, his EV SV% in the regular season was 0.933, and 0.939 in the playoffs.
On Halak upping his game, his EV SV% in the regular season was 0.933, and 0.939 in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteClutch!
You're going to have to live with it, since, you know, you're a Habs fan posting on an Oilers blog.
ReplyDeleteAnd you're going to have to live with the fact that, for some of us commenting here, the Oil are our #2 team. ;) Don't worry, it's still close between #1 and #2 and a big drop between #2 and the rest of the league for us (the rest of them are douchebags), but some of us will only cheer for the Oil when they don't play our Eastern team. That's still 79-80 games plus the playoffs, mind you.
I would probably freak out if the Oil and Habs met in the SCF though.
it's still Cuntreal and every win is accompanied by fan reaction unmatched by any other following.
You know, it's tough to take someone's complaints about another fanbase seriously when they use such classy terms as "Cuntreal". Hell, even most of us only go so far as to say "Laffs" instead of Leafs. But hey, stay classy.
On Halak upping his game, his EV SV% in the regular season was 0.933, and 0.939 in the playoffs.
Unsustainable! Luck! Fluke! blah blah.
LT: I don't know. I'd go with the Flyers because they have shaky goaltending, injuries and etc. But then again i don't necessarily want to face a team that just pulled a feat that was last made 40 years ago.
FPB, I thought you were a Habs fan (sort of). It doesn't matter who the other option is, we want Boston, because it just wouldn't be a Cup run if we didn't make the Bruins eat some crow before we raise the Cup. ;)
Seriously though, I look forward to next season when (hopefully) both of the teams I cheer for are competitive. But for now, there's only one in the playoffs, and I know which side my bread is buttered on. HATERS GONNA HATE, but the Habs will be triumphant. (I hope.)
despise the sun: But that's the thing. I don't have to live with it. YOU have to find a forum to talk about the Habs among fans of the Montreal Canadiens.
ReplyDeletePosting here and expecting support isn't a good idea for Habs fans. Don't feel bad, it would be the same for Leafs or Flames fans, and certainly for Dallas Stars fans.
It is an Oilers blog. We're aware of the Habs success and sure as hell wish we had your goalie, but I'm not going to pretend Montreal is a team I follow or like or even tolerate.
My hatred of the Habs goes back to before you were born (1971). Too late to stop now. :-)
I haven't seen a single minute of Boston/Philly so won't make any guesses there, SJ either, for that matter, but I think Mtl would stand a good chance vs. the Hawks. Not that I'd want them to, I'm cheering Chicago all the way in here, but they've been a giveaway machine in their own end this spring, and I think that would be suicide against the Habs right now, the way they're executing the forecheck. I don't see the West being a slam-dunk like some others have suggested earlier.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Mtl Model and the Edm model?
Smurfs - Check
Coaching - "Line matching is for pussies, besides we didn't do it during the war..."
Goaltending - "."
We lost two of those three the past off-season. But it points to being fixable.
When did Montreal get this forecheck everyone's talking about? I wrote about it elsewhere but they were relentless in their trapping in G5.
ReplyDeleteAlso, not my site, but if I were LT I'd delete everything that DTS wrote from here on out just to make the point that no, we don't *have* to accept that the Habs fans are happy. I'm enjoying MTL's run so far and if it's MTL-Pronger next round, it's like picking an army to cheer for on the Eastern Front in 1942 but the general douchiness of Habs fans is a bit of a buzzkill.
Oops...posted in the "Coke Machines" thread, but...
ReplyDeleteHere's a full article on the small link I posted yesterday about the Oilers new web-based scouting tool.
There's an interesting line towards the end about fans eventually participating in the scouting process. Good stuff.
http://www.nationalpost.com/sports/story.html?id=3019818
Wow, I didn't realize I offended you guys so badly here. I never expected support, but just wanted to point out that there is some crossover here and that Oilers fans shouldn't get so offended that some of us cheer for more than one team. You might not all be with us, but I'm sure me and FPB are not the only Habs/Oil co-fans. I get not wanting to discuss the Habs on this site for the most part, but in a discussion about which teams will comprise the final four, and when Montreal is in that picture, you're going to get a few of us come out of the woodwork. We're not exactly discussing Ales Hemsky trade rumours here. But if the thought of having Habs fans speak even one line of praise for that team here bothers you so much, then delete my posts. I thought this thread was a discussion about the upcoming Conference finals but I was apparently wrong.
ReplyDeleteNumber of critical FTs Michael Jordan missed in the playoffs from 1991-1998 = 0.
ReplyDeleteAnd it's not like he was a 100% career FT shooter.
It's ridiculous to say there's no such thing as clutch and that some guys aren't capable of raising their games when the stakes get higher.
We just haven't seen any around these parts in a very long time.
Well Mtl seem consistently able to force turnovers in the offensive zone, like Moore's goal yesterday. Whether that's by pressure (forecheck) or by positional play I won't quibble, but the one thing the Hawks seemed to be was pretty poor in clearing the zone. Good in transition, but from in their own end they were a bit of a heart-attack.
ReplyDeleteGeneralizing, of course.
What are 'critical' free throws, in a game that's won 113-111 or something. I thought they all counted the same.
ReplyDeleteHmm, people seem to take this way too seriously. Keep in mind folks that hockey hate is just fan talk. We pick our villains and our heroes and stick with the plot becoming emotionally invested. Often, we tend to let the emotional side overwhelm the rational side.
ReplyDeleteSo, like a good movie where you 'hate' the villain - enjoy it because its just part of the show.
As an Oiler fan, though, I have a hard time deriding another team's fanbase as douchey considering the massive douche convention that was Whyte Avenue '06.
ReplyDeleteIs there any statistical evidence of this skill heightening, bookie? I've never believed it and am pretty sure its hogwash after watching sports all these years.
ReplyDeleteI think it's a real physiological and psychological thing, having learned a thing or two about both, for the reasons expounded on by bookie and Oilmaniac above. How else do you explain Claude Lemieux's playoff stats? I'm not entirely convinced that's what's going on here, certainly not with Cammalleri, but maybe with Halak? I dunno; maybe not, given the numbers JW posted. I think if it's repeated over a large sample (again, Lemieux), I think that's probably a distinct phenomenon from streakiness, which is much more likely to be either internally (i.e. physiologically) or externally (i.e. on the ice) random.
Well how about that? Turns out I don't even need a hypothesis for Anderson's clutch performance, because it was figmentary.
Except wasn't your hypothesis more that some guys fold under pressure while some don't, and it's the guys that don't who look clutch even if they're not so much elevating their game as not folding? (Or was that Oilmaniac?) Also, don't most players see a drop in their production in the postseason, because most of the shitty teams are gone, and thus staying neutral would be considered a positive?
You might not all be with us, but I'm sure me and FPB are not the only Habs/Oil co-fans.
Yo.
Also, I'll second the '03 Ducks comparison, and in fact, I made the same comparison prior to game seven. That team got outshot badly (-6.5 SD/G, probably only that good because of the Minnesota series), saw a similar slate of teams from their respective conferences (DAL, DET, MIN, NJD --> WSH, PIT, BOS/PHI, CHI/SJS), and had a goalie with an absurd save percentage (.945 in '03 is probably similar to .933 in '10). The difference is, those Ducks got by on something like a goal and a half per game, while Montreal is doing quite a bit better than that offensively.
Given that SJ is the President's trophy winner and Chicago came in #2 in the conference, based on the '03 NJD-OTT result, that means Chicago over Montreal in 7 four weeks from now. Book it.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"For those interested, NHL.com's insiders have presented their second round of mockdrafts. Among the highlights:"
ReplyDeleteMIKE G. MORREALE'S MOCK DRAFT II
13 Phoenix Coyotes Calvin Pickard, G, Seattle (WHL)
28 Chicago Blackhawks Jack Campbell, G, U.S. U-18 (NTDP)
Morreale also projects that Mikael Granlund and Vladimir Tarasenko both fall out of the 1st round.
What an idiot.
Alice:
ReplyDeleteI define "critical" as any FT in a close game with little time remaining that, if missed, would put the shooter's team in serious jeopardy of losing the game. Either by leaving the opponent with too big a cushion or letting them stay in position to take the lead.
Going to the line up 2 with a chance to make it a 2-possession game or down 3 with a chance to cut it to 1 for example.
A goal that cuts a team's lead to 6-1 in the third counts the same as one that puts it down 0-2, but obviously one save would have been more critical for the goalie to make than the other.
Some guys wilt under that pressure, and some guys thrive on it.
Warren Rychel comments on Hall's propensity for taking big hits.
ReplyDelete"I haven’t seen a player over the last three years get hit more than him, harder more than him."
Doogie2K:
ReplyDeleteThe Habs have already beaten this year's President's Trophy winner.
I think the reality that trumps everything may be that every few years the Habs win the Cup, and there's just no stopping it or making sense of it.
CF,
ReplyDeleteI understood what you were getting at, it's just that somebody pulling out a '100% of critical free throws' - you saw that somewhere, well there's a somebody there who decided which ones were Not critical, and I'd be interested in the metric. Well, not really interested, but a bit dubious. I agree with your point tho, calling it all Random streakiness requires averting our gaze from some ornery bits that we can't explain.
As to the Habs just being due, well, just because. Spare a thought for our patient host here, if the hockey gods really do roll thus, then LT is Job in the wilderness.
Except wasn't your hypothesis more that some guys fold under pressure while some don't, and it's the guys that don't who look clutch even if they're not so much elevating their game as not folding?
ReplyDeleteNo, it was that some players (probably fewer now than in the past) dog it during the regular season, so their full-effort performances during the playoffs look like clutch performance. The 80s Oilers sound like the kind of guys who'd do that, Anderson especially. But the statistics don't bear it out in his case, so I'll throw it out.
Also, don't most players see a drop in their production in the postseason, because most of the shitty teams are gone, and thus staying neutral would be considered a positive?
That's a good point, and seems intuitive, but are playoff games on average lower-scoring than regular season ones (as they'd have to be if most players' production was tailing off)? I thought not, but I'd like to know.
ie. Pisani '06. Hot streak or clutch performance?
ReplyDeleteie. Pisani '06. Hot streak or clutch performance?
ReplyDeleteHot streak seems far more likely to me, but it's hard to say for sure without a larger sample size of clutch situations. Which, of course, no Oilers' going to get in the near future.
Good point :-)
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to pick an example that was near and dear, it's always easier to call the Other Guys streaky, where we want to believe our own are a little more than that. It's why we're fans, after all.
How else do you explain Claude Lemieux's playoff stats?
ReplyDeleteRegular season PPG: 0.647
Playoffs PPG: 0.675
What's to explain?
The Habs have already beaten this year's President's Trophy winner.
ReplyDeleteI think the reality that trumps everything may be that every few years the Habs win the Cup, and there's just no stopping it or making sense of it.
My bad. The Sharks were #2. Still, Dallas was #2 in 2003, so the minor discrepancies all balance out.
What's to explain?
It actually went up, which is an exceeding rarity, as far as I've seen. Every time we talk about playoff scoring somewhere on the Internet (especially on Sharks sites), it's not a question of whether it goes down, but by how much. Because I'm lazy, and Hockey-Reference doesn't appear to do it, anyone know where I can find out what the difference is in GPG between the regular season and playoffs?
anyone know where I can find out what the difference is in GPG between the regular season and playoffs?
ReplyDeleteIt probably goes against my case, but what we should really be looking at is the difference between GPG by playoff teams. Assuming you're correct that they score less in the playoffs, that may not show up in a league-wide GPG comparison, since the higher scoring by playoff teams could be offset by lower scoring by non-playoff teams.
I'll start putting something together to see what I can figure out.
I'm of the opinion that "clutch" is a mistake of perception. However, it strikes me that discussion here has centred around showing that "clutch" performers perform no better in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteFor the sake of argument and rigor, could it possibly be that clutch performers keep playing to their ability, but everyone else tails off during the playoffs?
Personally, I'd be really surprised if that's the case. However, I leave it to others with more time and dedication to check.
- Mustafa Hirji
Yay Habs!
ReplyDeleteSo much for the powerhouse Pens.
OT - CZE up 1-0 on SWE after 1.
ReplyDeleteActually, it seems apparent that Montreal is following the Edmonton model (2006), hot goaltender, desperate defending, trap, small forwards.
ReplyDeleteSo if Cammalleri is Pisani in that comparison, I guess we actually got a bargain with the Pisani contract considering Cammalleri is making $6 million.
ReplyDeleteYay KLowe!
For the sake of argument and rigor, could it possibly be that clutch performers keep playing to their ability, but everyone else tails off during the playoffs?
ReplyDeleteMustafa: I already hypothesized that above.
Anyway, I just looked at scoring in 2008-2009. In the regular season, the playoff-bound teams scored 3.076 goals per game. In the playoffs, they scored 2.736 goals per game. So it does appear that scoring decreases during the playoffs, by about 11%, which actually restores Anderson's clutch reputation.
One major caveat, though: unsurprisingly, the amount by which a team's scoring dropped was quite strongly correlated to how soon that team was eliminated (Pittsbugh's scoring actually increased substantially in the playoffs, and Detroit's 3.304 playoff clip was a decrease from the regular season only because its regular season scoring rate was so absurd; for almost any other team, that would have been an increase). So if you've got a player who has played a high proportion of his playoff games on teams that made the finals (like, I assume, Anderson, though I haven't actually checked that), you'd expect a much smaller drop than for a player whose teams were consistently eliminated in the first round, for whom you'd expect a major drop.
Either way, Claude Lemieux does come out looking pretty good. The question - which my current grasp of statistics is insufficient to answer - is whether he's further outside the mean than you'd expect an outlier to be given our enormous sample size (every player who's played in the playoffs).
MPS with a goal 1-1
ReplyDeleteAnd of course all of this raises yet another question: don't I have a job or something? The answer is no; anybody know of anyone in Fredericton who's hiring?
ReplyDeleteWell I was saying on here how clutch Fleury was maybe a year ago or so and we all saw how that worked out last night. Needless to say my opinion on clutch play is currently being rethought.
ReplyDeleteThe goals-per-game playoff drop would be somewhat explained in that you've eliminated the crappiest 14 teams of opposition, so now it's harder to score, and (just came to me) the teams you are playing you are playing many times in a row, so they're being coached to play and are learning to play particular to one opponent (you). This assumes the defensive adjustment is more effective than the offensive adjustment.
ReplyDeleteMaster Lok:
ReplyDeleteExcept that Edmonton only got outshot and outchanced in the first round, IIRC.
I dispute the "math" proving Glenn Anderson wasn't clutch.
ReplyDeleteAnderson's career playoff PPG may not have been higher than his regular season average, but:
17 Playoff Game Winning Goals;
5 Playoff Overtime Goals;
sounds clutch to me. That's better than a Stanley Cup's worth of GWG by himself.
Another question that just occurred to me: for coaches that do that newfangled line matching thing, do they change their approach during the playoffs? If their even strength breakdown usually works out to, for example, 30%-25%-25%-20%, would they shorten the bench to something like 35%-30%-25%-10%? If that's the case, you'd expect top-line players to have a smaller dropoff than utility guys. On the other hand, Alice's hypothesis about defensive adjustments might counteract that, since you'd expect those adjustments to be made primarily with the opposition's top scorers in mind.
ReplyDeleteIn conclusion, I have no conclusion.
17 Playoff Game Winning Goals;
ReplyDeleteDo you know many of those put the team up by two or more goals, and only became game-winning goals with the benefit of hindsight? The game-winning goal stat is about the stupidest the league tracks, in my view.
Speaking of clutch.
ReplyDeleteI had a 1980 Honda Civic in 1988, it was a 4 speed.
I was on a double date with a buddy and we took the girls to do "purple city" at the Legislature Grounds.
Afterward we tried driving up the hill to downtown, but given that I had burnt the clutch out while learning to drive a stick and doing dumb stuff like 80kph in 2nd.
We made it halfway up the hill and the civic wouldn't go any hirer and we had to coast backwards down the hill into oncoming traffic.
That Civic wasn't clutch.
WG- Texan meets an Albertan and sez "Back home I could get in my pickup first thing in the morning and drive off in any direction and not reach the edge of my property by nightfall."
ReplyDeleteThe Albertan says "I used to have a truck like that too."
rimshot.
2-1 Czechs after 2.
ReplyDeleteFreddie Pettersson is on the Swedish team.
What did the Magnificent Bastard say?
ReplyDeleteHfBoards has a rumor up that Backstrom re-upped with the Caps for 69/10.
Most Career NHL Playoff Game Winning Goals:
ReplyDeleteWayne Gretzky – 24 goals
Brett Hull – 24 goals
Claude Lemieux – 19 goals
Maurice Richard – 18 goals
Glenn Anderson – 17 goals
Mike Bossy – 17 goals
Are GWG a useless stat?
Maybe...but it's a pretty accurate reflection of the game's most successful playoff performers. No chokers on that list.
lol Woodguy
ReplyDeleteyeah this comparison with 2006 is offbase, the Oilers would have been a much higher seed if they had had goaltending
And after Detroit and G1 v SJ they were in good shape. The Ducks outshot them a lot but it was more of the outside variety. Roloson was good but he was not like Halak, saving his team's bacon over and over again.
Even against Detroit they were outplayed but not to the extent that the Habs were outplayed by the Caps.
As for the series just completed I was not impressed with Pittsburgh. They outplayed the Habs but there were a lot of stretches where they had the territorial advantage but did little with it, imo.
Once it was best of 3 I remarked here or maybe at Ty's or my own site that I could see Montreal taking it. Halak was superior to Fleury and that was the difference. Fleury was terrible last night.
Careful Pat, it's pretty lonely to be me & Panger as the only people criticizing Fleury.
ReplyDeleteMontreal just made their 4 of 13 shots, ya know. The ones that went into the middle of the net and were scored from the corner. Nothing he could do against the greatness that is the bleu, blanc & rouge!
MPS looks damn good against the Czech.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy
ReplyDeleteHilarious!!!
My clutch athlete story would be the last real good Expo team year of the baseball strike
Very very good outfield and Walker was the monster and Grissom could do everything but if I needed one hit in a big game I would go with Moises Alou......bigger the pressure the better he hit
Although he had a bit of Sami Salo in that he could get hurt bending over at the water cooler
Are GWG a useless stat?
ReplyDeleteMaybe...but it's a pretty accurate reflection of the game's most successful playoff performers. No chokers on that list.
As evidenced by all of the playoff game winning goals they scored?
I'm working on a more detailed analysis of Lemieux, and should have it up on my blog in about half an hour. I'll post a link here when I do. The results will surprise, I think.
For the clutch and unclutch arguement i tought of a stat that could help, and actually greatly reflect this in supersize sample.
ReplyDeleteBatting Average with runners in scoring position.
Isn't it the definition of clutch for a batter or a pitcher to have a big positive differential between normal BA and W/RISP?
My full refutation of the notion of Claude Lemieux being a "clutch" performer
ReplyDeleteNot really
ReplyDeleteListening to Stu MacGregor's interview with Stauffer on the podcast. WOW ... Stauffer lays the wood to Riley Nash for the first few minutes here.
ReplyDeleteTowing the party line ... love it Stauffer!
167% increase in the PO.
ReplyDeleteThat's pretty clutch!
Off topic but the Coyotes have traded former second round pick Jared Staal to the Hurricanes for a fifth round pick.
ReplyDeletehttp://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=321464
He has until June 1 to sign an ELC or he'll reenter the draft, in which case the team holding his rights would get a third round pick, right?
Am I missing something here or did the Coyotes, given that they seem to have given up on Staal, just trade a third round pick for a fifth round pick?
Savvy.
Marc - no compensation at all except for first rounders. So they actually got a 5th rounder from what otherwise would have been a total loss.
ReplyDeleteAh,that makes more sense.
ReplyDeleteSteve - that's an excellent analysis, well done.
ReplyDeleteFor anyone who wants to watch an interesting sports-related experiment with social media, Bill Simmons of espn.com is going to try to use Twitter to organize crowd chants during tonight's Celts-Cavs game in Boston.
ReplyDeleteIf this works, I nominate LT to take charge of chants during Oiler home games next year.
C'mon now! It would take forever for LT to train a little bird to chirp out "Go Oilers Go!".
ReplyDeleteI capitulate, Steve. Nicely done.
ReplyDelete