Saturday, May 1, 2010

Ladislav Smid: One Hit to the Body

Ladislav Smid gets hurt a lot. These aren't small injuries and no one questions his toughness. However, when your resume includes concussions, a broken hand, a neck injury, arm injury, knees, legs, shoulder it isn't a stretch to suggest that the hits will keep on coming. When looking at Ladislav Smid, injuries are a major consideration.
  • Boxcars: 51gp, 1-8-9
  • Shots: 36
  • Plus Minus: +5
  • Corsi (Rel): -2.2 (3rd among D's)
  • GF/GA ON: 36-31
  • 5x5/60: 0.50 (3rd best among D's)
  • 5x4/60: 14.40 (best among D's)
  • Quality of Competition: easiest among D's
  • Quality of Teammates: best among D's
  • Offensive Zone Start FO %: 46.8% (3rd easiest among D's)
  • Cap Hit: $1,300,000
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Smid played in the best possible circumstances (Lubo as his partner, easy minutes in terms of opposition and a reasonable zone start) and his numbers reflect it. One would hope for more offense, although playing with Lubo meant a lot of playing guard while the brilliant one ad-libbed his way to California. Smid had a good season, that's a nice Corsi on this club and his plus minus is just this side of impossible based on the team he played for in 2009-10.
  2. How could they be better? His limited offensive abilities were identified early by Kyle Woodlief at Redline before the draft, but the rest of the world felt he'd deliver more than he's shown as an NHL player. If this was 1975 they'd call him a "stay-at-home" defenseman, meaning Smid is somewhat one dimensional and if he can't play tougher minutes then his value is marginal.
  3. He's good enough for the 2nd pairing. On this team, yes. But if you're the Edmonton Oilers and this young man is rfa after this season that means a payhike and I don't know that there's a lot of value for a defensive defenseman you don't trust to play the tough minutes.
  4. You're making too big a deal of these injuries. Over the last 3 seasons, Smid has played in 71% of the Oilers games. He's missed 15, 20 and 31 games by season. But it is also the style he plays (Smid doesn't protect himself very well) and the position (defense is a ridiculous position to play).
  5. You just don't like him. Not true, but I do have trouble seeing where he'll help a team win games. Last season Smid played with Lubo under ideal circumstances. Put simply, he was on the ice with a guy who was constantly sending the puck in the right direction but Smid had little or nothing to do with it. He does carry the puck well but his decision making when in possession of the puck is quite poor and is not developing.
  6. How will the Oilers handle him this season? It is extremely likely he'll play tougher minutes next season, and if the club pairs him with a capable veteran Smid may be able to help in a complementary way.
  7. How important is he to the organization? If Smid can play top 4 minutes effectively at around $1M he'll be a valuable player. He needs to impact the game more in all three zones to be a legit top 4D.
By the Numbers
  • 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 0.80
  • 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 0.50
By the Numbers
  • 08-09 5x4 per 60m: nil
  • 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 14.40
Projected Role in 2009-10: Top 4D for the Edmonton Oilers

12 comments:

  1. One Hit to the Body? To continue the music topic from yesterday, that's definitely my favorite "obscure" Rolling Stones track.

    As for Smid - Mattias Ohlund-lite was what I saw in his future his first season here, and I won't stray from that. I hope they get him locked down long-term at a reasonable rate.

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  2. I agree with HB, LS is still too young to see all of his potential. I foresee his longtime with Oilers, and I hope so.

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  3. I think Smid is very close to his potential. He'll never be able to produce a lick offensively. I think he's the type of player you have to gauge on a year by year basis. Once Plante or Petry, Smid might be on the outs, just due to salary and offensive ability.

    Smid just needs to continue to be reliable, and continue to play a low maintenance style. I think him losing Visnovsky will hurt him going into next year, he needs that style of player to play with.

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  4. He's missed 15, 20 and 31 games by season.
    3 seasons ago (07/08) he missed 6 games due to injury. He played 65 games in Edmonton, 8 games in Springfield and sat in the press box 3 games throughout the season.

    Regardless, he's still missed a significant chunk of time and had some pretty bad injuries in the past couple of years. I still like what he brings to this team and hope to see him stick around for a while... and be healthy.

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  5. Doubt it happens, but I really hope they deal him.

    Ignoring just how bad the trade that brought him here was, he's that offensive defenseman who doesn't bring offense, and now is always hurt on top that.

    I'll never forget the insanity that was being $5,000,000 under the cap for "trade deadline room" (because, you know, we may have needed to bring in $20,000,000 worth of contracts!!!!) while having Smid in the top 4 to start 06-07.

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  6. I am a fan of the kid. I think he will be reaching his potential in about three years, most likely with another team.

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  7. I call Anton Volchenkov type.

    Strong and can check and block shots. Won't bring much creativity offensively, but isn't completely retarded when asked to make a breakout pass (Komisarek, Commodore are unable to make a pass worth shit)

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  8. FPB: That was just the name I was going to bring up. Volchenkov also struggled with injury early in his career but is fairly durable these days, esp. when one considers the beating he takes. One can only hope that Smid turns out to be such a player, but I don't see it as impossible. But certainly, I share LT's primary concern on the injury front. Buddy needs to serve up a couple of lumber sandwiches next season.

    Put simply, he was on the ice with a guy who was constantly sending the puck in the right direction but Smid had little or nothing to do with it.

    That seems a pretty harsh assessment, LT. You don't think Lubo benefitted from having Smid as a partner?

    EV stats from timeonice.com:

    Goals
    5 & 71 together: +26/-19
    71 apart: +15/-19
    5 apart: +9/-12

    Both were much more successful as a pair than apart.

    Shots ratio:
    5 & 71 together: .528
    71 apart: .488
    5 apart: .378

    This suggests that Smid missed Vis much more than vice versa, but it still supports that Vis did less well with other partners.

    Note also that Lubo was at +4 when Smid's season essentially ended with that dirty Mason Raymond hit on Jan 20. He was -4 by the time he got traded and ended the season -10.

    Sv% On:
    5 & 71 together: .928
    71 apart: .891
    5 apart: .929

    Smid was "lucky" all year while Visnovsky was only "lucky" when he played with Smid. Or ... ?

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  9. Bruce: I'm certain that Smid has improved over his NHL time in Edmonton. However, do we have a lot of evidence that tells us he can play the tougher opponents? In a season with such chaos, can you agree that the coaching staff still felt compelled to play Smid with a more proven talent?

    I like Smid. Honest. I just don't think there's a tremendous amount of evidence to suggest he is going to be a guy we can count on.

    Of course, Matt Greene's numbers didn't give us that feeling either.

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  10. In a season with such chaos, can you agree that the coaching staff still felt compelled to play Smid with a more proven talent?

    Yeah, it's called the top 4. IIRC, once Souray and Staios went down right off the bat, it was the Glimmer Twins on one pairing and Lubo and Ladi on another.

    Maybe I need to reread what you wrote, but it seems you're criticizing him on the one hand for being a bottom pairing guy and on the other for needing a top-end guy to prop him up. It seems a little confusing.

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  11. Bruce: The Oilers were dying this year. DYING. And yet Ladislav Smid rode shotgun with Lubo. I'm suggesting that if the coaching staff had more confidence in him perhaps they could have asked him to anchor a pairing (which to my eye was Souray, Lubo and Strudwick pretty much all season).

    He did well in calm waters. I, like other Oiler fans, have hoped for more.

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  12. The Oilers were dying this year. DYING. And yet Ladislav Smid rode shotgun with Lubo. I'm suggesting that if the coaching staff had more confidence in him perhaps they could have asked him to anchor a pairing

    One might argue that one reason the Oilers were dying was the coaches didn't know WTF they were doing. They didn't appear to have much confidence in Lubo Visnovsky let alone Ladi Smid.

    I was at one game where with the score tied in the last minute of the third, they pulled Lubo off the ice draw and replaced him with a guy making 1/8 the money (Strudwick). At the same time, they pulled Fernando Pisani off the ice and replaced him with a guy making 1/4 the money (Potulny). Sure enough, wham! we couldn't even get the puck over out blueline and coughed up the winning goal.

    A whole lot of shit went down - esp. involving 41 & 43 - that made no sense to me. But pairing Lubo and Ladi did make sense, and they were pretty decent together.

    He did well in calm waters. I, like other Oiler fans, have hoped for more.

    A case could be made that Lubo himself did (fairly) well in calm waters. For $5.6 MM. I, like some other Oiler fans, might have hoped for more.

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