Thursday, May 20, 2010

The Chicago Model

This is Gillian Anderson. She is an actress/model and she is from Chicago.

Kevin Lowe spoke of the "Chicago model" again yesterday. That model involves astute drafting, signing undrafted college, Junior and European free agents as opposed to spending millions on a quick fix.

This plan of action runs counter to a few things already in place for this organization. Pat Quinn, Nikolai Khabibulin, Ethan Moreau and others won't be in the league by the time the Chicago model begins working. I would think the team's performance in 2010-11 will have a major impact on the desire of these men to stay Oilers.

It is very good news for the kids. Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson and the first overall draft pick are going to be touted as "the future" in the same way Chicago trumpeted Toews, Kane and Keith.

This is also good news for young men like Chris Vande Velde, Teemu Hartikainen and Alex Plante. The Edmonton Oilers are planning on building a strong young cluster that matures as we enter the 'teens.

The Chicago Model requires patience from management and the fanbase. In all honesty, I think the Oilers (if healthy) are probably going to be too good a hockey team to pick in the top 5 again next season.

87 comments:

  1. "In all honesty, I think the Oilers (if healthy) are probably going to be too good a hockey team to pick in the top 5 again next season."

    I agree with that. If this team addresses the 2nd line center, middle pairing Dman and Khabibulin can find a way to stay healthy and out of trouble, this team has a chance at the playoffs.

    We'e catching teams at a good time as a lot of teams in the west are in a state of flux. The only juggernaut that seems to be is Chicago. The rest is up for grabs.

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  2. I second that dangerman, I believe that with a 2-3 tweeks and 2-3 dumps of over-paid Vets that this team will be much better.

    The Oil were the worst team in the league, no question. Also, i know you shouldn't blame injuries. But, Come ON!

    The oil had a flawed team to begin with but any team that loses their starting goalie, their highest paid d-man, their franchise forward, their best penalty killer for the year will be a very bad team.

    A healthy khabibulin, Hemsky, and Souray replacement will go along way.

    Also, has anyone noticed D.Moore in this playoffs, he looks like he could be a good fit on the Oilers

    Hall Horcoff Hemsky
    Penner Gagner Brule
    Jones Moore Pouliot

    That is a decent top nine.

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  3. The Chicago Model is all about decades of ineptitude.
    I think the Oilers have the right people in place to execute it.

    That model involves astute drafting, signing undrafted college, Junior and European free agents as opposed to spending millions on a quick fix.

    Hockey or Die talked about this the other day
    Khabibulin, Aucoin, Lapointe...

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  4. Ya I agree that the Oilers will likely be too good to get another top 5 unless they trade Hemsky. Assuming Hemsky is willing to stay, I don't see a need to make that move. At some point you have to go with your core. I also think Gagner will emerge as a better player this year and more of a leader.

    The thing about the Chicago (or Pittsburgh for that matter) model is that it involves luck. Chicago won the lottery from the 5th pick to get Kane and Pittsburgh we all know won the Crosby lottery. But I like the sound of not chasing the overpriced vet and hopefully we'll see less chaos from management this summer.

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  5. "In all honesty, I think the Oilers (if healthy) are probably going to be too good a hockey team to pick in the top 5 again next season."

    I've been reading this blog as long as it's been around and I think this is the most far-fetched thing you've ever said.

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  6. Chicago model?

    Did Batman black out the games locally?

    The key to the Chicago model is luck and it pisses me off when people give credit for some great master plan after the fact.

    Kinda like the Oilers talking playoffs at the beginning of the year then talking Chicago model when they started to tank.

    Where was the Chicago model in Oct?

    Chicago was bad for a long time and they got very lucky, although Tallon tried hard to keep it bad.

    Got lucky with Toews going 3rd when in a redraft, he goes first.

    Got lucky to win the lottery to get Kane.

    Got lucky with Keith at 54th overall.

    Sure there is some planning, but luck plays a pretty big part too.

    Terry Jones had an article in the Sun today touting Hall over Seguin.

    This is my favorite part:

    Part of the problem here is that it’s the Oilers who are picking. They just fired their top man over the past decade from the amateur scouting side in Kevin Prendergast without one iota of controversy. And who knows what the entire scouting department will look like after the draft.

    Dear Mr. Jones,

    This will be Stu MacGregor's 3rd draft as head scout.

    Please try to keep up, you get paid to do so.

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  7. Great Picture LT. I was just starting to think that it was time for another beauty to keep us distracted from the elephant contracts in the room. I remember watching the X-Files years ago and being transfixed by her. Where do you find these wonderful ladies again?

    As for Lowe's comments, I don't see what else he can say right now. His team stinks right now. What else can he say other than they are building for the future.

    One thing I can say for Lowe is that he can read the fan base like a folksy politician - he may not be a great manager of people, but he sure knows what to say, and when to say it. It's probably his biggest asset when it comes his job - without that, he'd have been gone a long time ago, based on the results hes gotten.

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  8. Well, now. That's something to wake up to.

    I'll come back when I've read the article. ;)

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  9. WG - Luck or the skill of the Oiler's brass?

    Pick your poison.

    I'd rather they adopt a strategy that embraces luck as I think it increases our chances of improving the on-ice product.

    Finishing last to get another 48% chance at drafting first again looks way more solid than the incremental moves to try to make the playoffs.

    I heartily agree with LT's statement that, as it is, the team when healthy is not a lottery team. How do we make it so? Souray for Price would help as the asset we get back would be underutilized while he matures along with the new cluster.

    Warm bodies, we need warm bodies.

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  10. I've been reading this blog as long as it's been around and I think this is the most far-fetched thing you've ever said.

    Either you think that LT has been amazingly logical or you think its extremely far fetched for the Oilers to finish above 25th place. If it is the latter, I think you should avoid gambling.

    Nobody is saying they are a playoff team, but as John said, the bulk of the talent on this team was injured last year.

    The only way this team finishes this low next year is if the 'culture' is more of a problem than we think.

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  11. So, does Terry Jones seriously get a real salary for doing what LT and others do better for free? Is it a full time salary, like enough to live well on? If so, the MSM needs to check its model of operation. It appears to have lost the notion of 'merit based' remuneration.

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  12. Deano,

    Drafting is luck with a healthy dose of skill thrown in.

    Acquiring NHL players from other teams or free agency is skill.

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  13. bookie: I think he's referring to the "if healthy" statement being far-fetched.

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  14. Maybe a bit off topic, then again maybe not...Is there a way we could get both Hall and Seguin? I'm sure there is so I guess I'm asking...What would it take?

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  15. First of all, thank you Woodguy for pointing out the ridiculousness of the term "model". The key to being a great general manager is not crafting a master plan and seeing it through to completion, but rather adaptability - how can you best manage a situation with the resources you've been given? Indeed, a lot of those times GMs will be given resources that they never anticipated (Toews in 2006, MPS in 2009). It's not part of a model, it's just luck. If Toews/Kane/Keith turned out to be busts, would we still be calling this the Chicago Model? Absolutely not.

    Secondly, if you want to continue to argue for the existence of a "Chicago Model", that's fine - but, as Kurtenblog pointed out, they're going to have such massive cap troubles next year that this so-called model will become essentially defunct.

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  16. I think there's almost no chance that the Oilers draft top 5 next year barring something silly (like this year, it was beyond silly).

    My optimist nature was stirring again yesterday; because if Svensson, Eberle and Hall all make the team AND deserve to have made the team...we could be a terror for opposing goalies. We also wouldn't have to focus on landing big and expensive offensive fish in the summertime, which would be helpful.

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  17. No way we finish this low again. We replaced MacT, the young skill on this team can now flourish.

    Go! Flourish!

    FLOURISH GODDAMMIT.

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  18. if Svensson, Eberle and Hall all make the team AND deserve to have made the team...we could be a terror for opposing goalies

    And our own, of course. I'm excited for all of these players and do expect good things out of them - it's just that they will all be a bit young to have things completely figured out off the hop. Could be a very fun season to watch.

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  19. I think all those who see this team with a chance at the playoffs next year are being a tad too optimistic. We've got great young talent coming in but they dont just turn it on overnight. Chicago had Keith for years and were still horrible, even with Toews and Kane it took a coaching change to turn them into the elite team they are now. The rookies are going to take time to learn the game at an NHL level and they are going to get burnt a bunch of times before they do. Our defence looks really shaky yet and rehabibulin is still a question mark in net. This team could easily be at or near the bottom again next year.

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  20. No way we finish this low again. We replaced MacT, the young skill on this team can now flourish.

    Go! Flourish!

    FLOURISH GODDAMMIT.


    The logic is infallible!

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  21. I think all those who see this team with a chance at the playoffs next year are being a tad too optimistic.

    Just to clarify, I was suggesting that it was not implausible that the team could finish outside of the bottom five - I would suggest that making the playoffs would require something impressive to take place.

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  22. I agree that the team is probably too good to be guaranteed a top 5 pick, as is.

    However, management may well have the same read of the team - after all, they seem to have thought last year's team would be good enough to make the playoffs. Given that, why would they think that the team they have remaining would be a lock for bottom 5 as is, when it's fairly similar to what they had last season?

    That part of why I wouldn't be surprised, if they've truly embraced the rebuild, if they move (at least) one of Hemsky or Penner this summer. Yes, to get whatever you get in return, to shift the value of Penner/Hemsky to the future with other youngsters, but also to move them up the draft list for 2011.

    One thing I will say about injuries though is that I wouldn't plan to be the healthiest team in the league next season. Hemsky has played one 80+ game season in his career, usually missing 10 games or so, plus who knows how his shoulder is going forward. Souray may not be here again anyways, but both he and Khabibulin can be considered injury risks even though you'd expect both to play more games next year than this year.

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  23. speeds: would you rather they move Hemsky and/or Penner to get another top pick next year or go with the current core plus Hall or Seguin?

    I realize its hard to say without knowing the return just curious what you/others think.

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  24. I love how this post asserts that the Khabibulin contract goes against the Chicago model when they made that exact same mistake with that exact same player half way through their rebuild.

    Every time I hear about the Chicago model and Los Angeles model, as if they deserve a lot of credit, it makes me cringe.

    They built teams for the sake of making the playoffs, failed, then suffered through injuries and shitty Goaltending - got a couple top picks, and as it tends to happen, the bottom of the roster sorted itself out.

    It's a lot like the Oilers IMO, and if this works out for them, I won't give them a ton of credit for the turn around either.

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  25. "as is" isn't accurate, because if they go with a D of (assuming souray traded with no return, probably a poor assumption but who knows what they get back?):

    Whitney-Gilbert
    Smid-Chorney
    Peckham-Petry
    Plante

    They probably would be considered likely to be a bottom 5 team.

    Actually, the more I look at it, the less I'm sure that they aren't a bottom 5 team, given they fill the holes we expect them to.

    I think you could reasonably guess they project to be notably worse than:

    VAN
    CAL
    CHI
    DET
    LAK
    ANA
    SJ

    They are less likely to be worse than, but probably worse than:

    NSH
    STL
    CLB (though there are division factors in the central)
    COL
    PHX


    They are maybe in the same ballpark as:

    MIN
    DAL

    Most agree with that, or am I being too negative?

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  26. From the Edmonton Sun

    The IIHF posted a story titled "Saying No to Your Country" on its website Wednesday, claiming that players who chose not to participate were turning "their backs not only on the team and its fans but also to the system which developed them and made them rich and famous." The story, written by IIHF communications director Szymon Szemberg, names Crosby, Henrik Zetterberg and Nicklas Backstrom, among others.

    "How can a player who is 22 or 25 or 27, and who was just eliminated from the playoffs be tired?" Szemberg wrote. "Tired is a miner who works in a damp pit in Miktivka, in the Donetz Plateau in Ukraine, who never sees daylight and who provides living for a family of five in a modest two-room apartment. That is tired.

    "Tired is a divorced mother with two young kids who double shifts as a nurse assistant and cleaning lady to make ends meet.

    "Why is a 22-year-old Sidney Crosby tired when a 34-year-old Ryan Smyth is answering the bell for his country despite having represented Canada at the worlds already on eight occasions?"


    Is it just me or is this more of an indication of how absolutely irrelevant a tournament played every year during the heart of the NHL playoffs is. I mean its interesting for us because we are watching prospects, but it really is like watching a B-final at a house league tournament.

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  27. Yeah, like speeds says, if they're going to truly embrace the rebuild some peoeple are going to have to die so that a child may live. Honestly, Step 1 needs to be starting Dubnyk/JDD for 70 games, that'll get you 70% of the way there. Keeping Moreau, moving Penner or Hemsky, and pulling in a couple of nobodies from the AHL is Step 2.

    If they move Hemsky/Penner/Souray for a good return of picks/prospects, build JDD up as the starter, and then use the empty salary cap space to get paid for dealing with some of Chicago's cap problems, that's a real rebuild.

    If they go forward with this team + new kids, well, it's 2007 all over again.

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  28. You need a lot of luck to finish last overall and quite a bit to finish in the bottom five.

    Having said that the Oilers have a first overall and two other top tens without even trying so I'm thinking if they put their minds to it we could get a nice string of lottery picks. ;)

    Seriously though, trade Souray for a broken down nag or two (and that is what they will get back anyway), move either Penner or Hemsky if that is the plan (I would not do this but if you want to ensure those sexy picks), fill in the roster with flotsam and jetsam (Chorney and Strudwick) and then you're looking at a decent bet, especially if you send the prized kids away for another year.

    Guaranteed Khabibulin gets hurt so that's a start.

    But I agree with LT, if they remain reasonably healthy and add a couple of NHL players then they likely won't be in the lottery.

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  29. For the record, building up JDD as the starter means using him and his .900 SV% as a way to get a top pick... not as actually expecting him to become our long-term in net solution.

    Just want to make sure nobody thinks I have confidence in him.

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. Sean:

    It's tough to say. To give an honest answer, one needs more information, information that we'll probably never get:

    (1) Are Penner and/or Hemsky interested in re-signing after their contracts expire in two years?

    (2) What kind of money and term can the Oilers get them signed for?

    (3) What can they get for them in trade?

    They also need to know what their projections are for each player going forward from the 2012-13 season forward. Not "What kind of players will Hemsky and Penner be next year?" but "What kind of players will Hemsky and Penner be 2 thru 7 years from now?" Obviously this is unanswerable, but what are the projections, and how does it compare to the 5 or 6 mil per season the team might have to shell out to keep them?

    I don't really have the information to give a fair answer, but I'll kind of answer anyways. If I were the GM, I would be willing to move at least one and maybe both this summer if the returns were "right". If you could get 2 other picks from, say, 4-10 in exchange for Hemsky and Penner, I think you'd have to seriously look at it if you're truly going for a rebuild.

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  32. OT - just turned on the TV - Omark w/ a goal. SWE up 4-1. Anyone been watching to see how MPS has been doing today?

    Warning: I think Keenan is doing colour.

    FIN-CZE tied 1-1

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  33. If you could get 2 other picks from, say, 4-10 in exchange for Hemsky and Penner, I think you'd have to seriously look at it if you're truly going for a rebuild.

    One pick each would seem like a pretty poor return to me.

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  34. The oil had a flawed team to begin with but any team that loses...their highest paid d-man,

    Visnovsky was hurt?

    ...their best penalty killer...

    Horcoff was hurt?

    Hall Horcoff Hemsky
    Penner Gagner Brule
    Jones Moore Pouliot


    Ryan Jones on the third line? Really?

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  35. bookie - I actually think that the team that wins the WC is usually about on par with the 10-12 place NHL team talent-wise. I view it as a chance to see the best players outside the NHL.

    Its only irrelevant to North Americans.

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  36. book¡e the issue I have is how every 4 years or at the WJC these guys talk about what an honour it is to wear the Maple Leaf and how it's a life long dream.

    They seem happy as shit to participate when they know it's the centre of attention, but a lot less so when it's relegated to morning and afternoon games during he week in May.

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  37. Anonymous, don't forget the Oilers were a playoff team for most of 08-09 and lost it in the stretch run.

    I think this (on merit) is a 10th place team that could find itself in the playoffs during a year where a few things go right for them (much like they have been for years).

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  38. Why do we have to use all this model talk. There was no elaborate process involved in Chicago. They got lucky, picked up Toews 3rd overall after the Penguins passed on him, and won Kane. I don’t want to follow Chicago’s path, they went ahead and gave Brian Cambell a ridiculous contract along with Marion Hossa. They had problems in the office leading to overpaying RFA’s. As far as I can see, Chicago has been managed with mediocrity and a lot of luck. Toews and Kane weren’t “developed.” Kane was just thrown right in and Toews only stayed in college for one year before he became the freaking captain.

    Why not look at a team like Nashville, or Los Angeles. These teams, simply make good decisions. Nashville has no money and they still contend every bloody year. They develop there prospects and put a lot of importance on the draft. We keep hearing “draft well,” from Tambellini, but what does that mean? The Oilers just need to realize that the draft is the only way to build a hockey team.

    there’s my two cents on this whole thing.

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  39. Why do we have to use all this model talk.

    We do it because everyone loves a narrative - even if it is unsupportable by facts. So, easier to say Chicago model than to say use some good drafting, rely on uncontrollable factors to go our way and try to guess which free agents will be useful pieces to add when our core of good drafts gets to maturity. The first blithe statement sells seats, the second gets pink slips.

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  40. OT :: why is chorney in the WC but gilbert isn't? did gilbert decline the invite? seems he finished the year strong and might have liked the tourny.

    thanks

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  41. OT :: why is chorney in the WC but gilbert isn't? did gilbert decline the invite?

    I recall hearing that that's exactly what happened, though I can't find a source. It must be the case, though; nobody could possibly argue that Chorney's better than Gilbert.

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  42. bookie - I actually think that the team that wins the WC is usually about on par with the 10-12 place NHL team talent-wise. I view it as a chance to see the best players outside the NHL.

    Sure, I didn't say it was worth watching, but it in no way represents a competition between the best teams that countries can ice. So if Canada loses or the USA gets destroyed it says nothing about the relative rank of those countries on the world hockey scene.

    The IIHF needs to either raise the profile of the event or accept that many players will continue to turn them down. Guilt tripping them is a bit childish.

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  43. speeds: ya I think a top 9 of

    Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Hall-Gagner-Nilsson
    MPS-Cogliano-X

    is better than bottom 5. This is assuming the Oilers are able to fill the gaps on D without dressing Chorney (its been a strength of theirs). But if you think the Oilers are a 5-10 range team with Hemsky and a lottery team without him, its has to be worth it to at least dangle him and see if there are any biters.

    This team really needs a Keith, Doughty or Weber type defensemen to truly take the next step forward as a franchise (dont get me wrong, Hall or Seguin is a huge step). But the biggest point I'm making here is that each of these players were drafted at different positions in the draft and developed at varying length timelines. At some point you have to just go with the core and hope for some "draft luck".

    I guess in summary I'm undecided haha

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  44. This team really needs a Keith, Doughty or Weber type defensemen

    Adam Larsson is the current fav for #1 OV in 2011.

    I don't think that I have the stroke when bargaining with God to make it happen. Any help would be appreciated.

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  45. Apologize in advance for the laziness that follows: I do not recall the exact finish of the Oilers over the last 10 years and am too lazy to look but having lived it.....it is really really bad. Put simply the Oilers have been a really bad team for a decade. Absent CFP and catching lightning in a bottle in 2006 (where a ton of contracts where expiring, talk about bad planning) the Oilers have been outside the store with our face pushed up against the window looking in at the playoffs. So, unlike many, I think for the last decade we have been treated to a HORRIBLE model.

    Now many of you say with a whole series of tweaks we can, gasp, get back to finishing from anywhere from 8th through 12 in the West and eat off of the 10th through 18th pick at the NHL draft buffet.

    That my friends is a a continued recipe for continued ineptitude. Either we draft and develop a solid core to grow up together or we continue to assemble a series of patchwork quilts of squads and then act surprised where we miss/make the playoffs in the last weekend of the season, get 2 home games and say....just wait until next year.

    I hated this year more than most. I have season tixs and did not go to a single game after mid January. It was too painful to watch. But I want to quit having as our goal 8th place. So if that means shitting the bed again for 1 or, gasp, even 2 seasons to draft AND develop a solid core that everyone thinks....shit we have to beat the Oilers to get to WCF-SCF ...I can live with that

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  46. bookie wrote:

    One pick each would seem like a pretty poor return to me.

    It depends how you're evaluating things. You may well not get as a good a player, but your "expected value" maybe be as good, or better, and would likely occur over a more convienient time frame with respect to contending. I think that return looks pretty decent if you KNOW Penner and Hemsky don't want to re-sign; it's less clear if you don't know if they'll re-sign. And obviously there's a big difference in value between getting the 4th and 5th picks OVERALL vs. the 9th and 10th picks OVERALL.

    What's a 5th overall pick "worth"? $2 million? 4 mil? 6 mil?

    What's Hemsky's value above his cap number the next 2 seasons? $2 million? 4 mil? 6 mil?

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  47. I'm pretty sure Gilbert and Whitney both declined invites.

    Canada is really going to work if they want to win today. I hope Eberle brought his Clutch Stick.

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  48. Say what you will about K-Lowe, but you have to applaud his capacity for frank self-criticism:

    "We've found over the last decade that, except for the last couple years, we've been a competitive team but there wasn't really a year where we were considered a contender at the start of the year."

    Jesus.

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  49. Say what you will about K-Lowe, but you have to applaud his capacity for frank self-criticism:

    "We've found over the last decade that, except for the last couple years, we've been a competitive team but there wasn't really a year where we were considered a contender at the start of the year."


    I think it only counts as "frank self-criticism" if he answers the implied question ("Is it me?") with "yes".

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  50. Why not look at a team like Nashville, or Los Angeles. These teams, simply make good decisions.

    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess a GM isn't going to say to the press or the team's fans that they are going to follow the model of teams that either don't make the playoffs or lose in the first round when they do.

    You may want to follow their blueprint but it doesn't make for a marketable quote.

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  51. If management had an 8th place team with a $45 million dollar payroll they could pick up 2 to 3 very good players that could get them to a 4th- 5th or 6th place team.

    Or we could be the Oilers...

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  52. 'Nashville with money.' resonates with me.

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  53. Afinogenov scores under Mason's arm, stick-side w/ 00:57 left in the first period.

    1-0 RUS after 1.

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  54. It depends how you're evaluating things. You may well not get as a good a player, but your "expected value" maybe be as good, or better, and would likely occur over a more convienient time frame with respect to contending.

    It may be ok as a strategy, but I think you lose on the trade. For Hemsky, you better get 4th overall + some other assets.

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  55. Ya know what, Dubnyk and JJD going 70 games gets us nowhere.

    Because either they perform poorly and we have no backup or they perform well and are poached in free agency.

    Having Khabibulin allows on of them to develop further as his backup with out a pass/fail tag at the end of the season that end up with a goalie prospect gone.

    The best idea is play Khaby 50-60 games, the other goalie 20-30 and hope Olivier Roy becomes the franchise goalie before Khaby's deal is up.

    However, if they can re-up Dubnyk for 3 years at a low salary, that changes things.

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  56. Because either they perform poorly and we have no backup or they perform well and are poached in free agency.

    Well, the whole point here is for them to perform poorly so we get another lottery pick. I'm not at all worried about the possibility that they get poached in free agency (mostly because they suck, partly because they're RFAs.)

    Or, let's put it another way: no plausible scenario in my mind ends with a starting JDD hoisting a Stanley Cup.

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  57. Datsyuk on a 5-on-3, Malkin on a PP.

    3-0 RUS after 2.

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  58. I blame Canada's performance on Messier for not giving MacTavish Marty Reasoner.

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  59. Best world scenario for this team next year - the good prospects tear it up in OK (but don't get brought up because Tambo is evaluating them), no quality D replace Souray (we get Rosival instead) and Khabi goes down after 20 games leaving the Bobbsey-twins (JDDDD) to handle the rest of the load. And with a healthy forward core the Oil still end up 26th, earning a 3rd pick in the lottery and getting Tambo fired for leading this team to the bottom 2 years in a row (I know, quit beating the I hate Tambo-rine already).

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  60. "In all honesty, I think the Oilers (if healthy) are probably going to be too good a hockey team to pick in the top 5 again next season."

    The eternal call of the Edmonton Oilers. Lucy is getting ready to dangle out the football and is enticing Charlie Brown to come take another wack at it.

    It's got lazy players, over paid players, hurt players, and players that don't want to play here.

    It's got management that says one thing and then goes out and does the complete opposite.

    It has a waiting list for tickets and a lap dog media and thus has no real need or desire for change.

    This team has more holes in it than Swiss Cheese.

    It's way too early to be making any sort of prediction. Let's wait out the summer and see if Penner and Hemskey decide to stick around or ask for trade(s).

    The team just finished its most miserable season ever and they have been successful in pinning the blame on injuries, the equipment guy and the trainer.

    So it’s business as usual without a single change of any significance.

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  61. Traktor, you're absolutely right. I mean there's no reason this motley crew of Canucks shouldn't beat a Russian team with Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Semin, Gonchar et al =).

    Eberle is just waiting for the final 4 minutes to score 4 goals and send it to overtime.

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  62. I don't see how we're in a bad place if the big 3 (Hall, Eberle, Svensson) turn out.

    That gives us a whole whack of legit top 9'ers by the end of the year. Sign a couple vets and drop the tweeners (Pouliot, Jacques, Reddox, Potulny, etc) and you're completely competitive at fwd.

    If Whitney and Gilbert keep doing what they did at the end of the year, that's a really solid top unit. We've got Smid. Plug 1 really solid vet in there (trades, signed, doesn't matter) then round out with Johnson, Peckham and a guy like Freddy Meyer/Milan Jurcina and our D is set.

    Our goaltending is the question mark, but it COULD be very very good.

    Unless they bugger this up by trying to play the plugs for half the season, we're a very competitive hockey team night-in-night-out.

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  63. Eberle came oh so close to scoring, just had to get it another few inches higher to get it over the pads.

    I think I might be more excited by the upcoming Barons season than the Oilers season.

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  64. Federov w/ a tip in the high slot. Tavares outside-in, quick shot around Grebs. Kovalchuk w/ an EN. Canada w/ a late goal (didn't see it, its on in the other room.)

    5-2 RUS Final.

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  65. Traktor, you're absolutely right. I mean there's no reason this motley crew of Canucks shouldn't beat a Russian team with Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Semin, Gonchar et al =).


    I personally feel that everything except the win against Norway can be excused.

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  66. Deano, I believe Duchene drove towards the slot with speed and ripped it. He's a keeper isn't he?

    So, of Tavares and Duchene, who do you think will end up being the better player, and have the better career? We're talking peak value, and period of consistent high play here.

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  67. Duchene. And it won't be close. Of course, that's just an uneducated guess.

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  68. That gives us a whole whack of legit top 9'ers by the end of the year.


    Its pretty rare for even the best prospects to outscore their opponents are rookies.

    This year's probably Calder winner Duchene was only +0.16/60 playing 6/14 QT & QC.

    It will be a couple years before we can expect the high end young guys to outscore medium comp.

    I say medium comp because it will be tough to shelter them and get them soft comp(too many to shelter)

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  69. Well I thought Redline Report was out to lunch when they ranked Duchene as high as 2nd overall, but he's proved he belongs.

    Woodguy, Tyler Myers already owns the Calder this year, it's not even close. 23:44 average TOI, 11G 48Pts +13 with only 32PIMs. I haven't seen a rookie defenceman this good since...since...well Doughty; lordie these kids are freaks.

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  70. ts pretty rare for even the best prospects to outscore their opponents are rookies.


    What? Is that the MacT wordblender?

    Rare for its best even the South Africa to rookies outscore pretty much.

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  71. Woodguy - I'm not sure whether you know that the "advanced stats" aren't exactly something I'm a fan of (all info is good of course, but too much inferring and not enough "why" for me), but even if we put aside that objection, if you can have a strong veteran third line, we have the top 6 to eat minutes. I'm torn between putting the young'ns on one line or having pairs riding shotgun for each of them if they all make it, but the chance they at least provide a decent PP contribution and SO winners is good.

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  72. Woodguy - I'm not sure whether you know that the "advanced stats" aren't exactly something I'm a fan of...

    The notion that you want your players to score more goals than the guys they're on the ice against is an "advanced stat"?

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  73. Uni,

    Forgot about Myers.

    Blocking that out of my memory since it was the Oiler's pick that got him (not that they would have picked him)

    Duchene had a PDO of 1013 as well working for him, which I'm sure helped the ole +/-.

    Taveres on a team not as bad as the Oilers was -0.71/60 with 4/12 QC and 7/12 QT.

    Heavier lifting with meh team mates can make a good kid look bad.

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  74. Bookie,

    Should read outscore as rookies. I type too fast and don't spell check enough, sorry.

    LMHF,

    Best way to shelter would be to make a "kid" line out of them imo.

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  75. You can't always shelter your kids when theyre part of your best elements. They play 20 mins a game, you're not alone coaching.

    And i'd say most of the time it's due to them being on the 1st line. Coaches get them out as soon as they see the opposing's 4th on the ice.

    It's just coaching properly, not necessarily sheltering.

    You shouldn't have to play your 1st line against the other's 1st all the time. That's why you have checking lines.

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  76. + I'l always a problem with the ''soft'' and ''hard'' comp since you directly affect it with how you play.

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  77. LT said...

    This is Gillian Anderson. She is an actress/model and she is from Chicago.

    So let me get this straight...

    Next year's Oilers are going to look like Gillian Anderson?

    Sweet!!!

    @WG,

    Is placing all the kids on one line a good idea while Quinn is coach?

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  78. We can all see the Oilers have many good players but they don't collectively make a team. There are just too many holes for one thing and too little crust for another. With Kevin Lowe having pronounced that we won't be signing any free agents that only leaves us the draft and trades to fill those holes.

    Lowetide is right. With everybody healthy we are not a bottom five team. Year after year we are liking picking 8 to 12th with the current team. That means we will be drafting good players but not ones that are likely to be game changers.

    There is one inescapable conclusion: we need to make some serious trades, either talent for picks or talent for prospects, or both. Talent for talent doesn't work because we are the not ready for prime time players. Just as Hemmer and Penner may have decided or may decide they want out, anyone we got in return would also get tired of waiting on the endless rebuilding. We need everybody to mature together.

    Which would mean, of course, that we are following the Colorado Model, not the Chicago Model.

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  79. + I'l always a problem with the ''soft'' and ''hard'' comp since you directly affect it with how you play.

    You do, but over a season your effect on a given player opponent's rating for QUALCOMP purposes will be negligible.

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  80. With Kevin Lowe having pronounced that we won't be signing any free agents...

    Wait, what?

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  81. With Kevin Lowe having pronounced that we won't be signing any free agents...

    Wow.

    I have not heard that, it would be a huge mistake.

    The only thing I heard regarding Vish and FA's is that some claimed to have asked him about an AHL goaltender and Lowe confirmed they were looking to sign one.

    Have no idea if the claim is true.

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  82. spOILer,

    After thinking about it I don't think we have enough information at this time to make that call.

    The roster could be radically different in October.

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  83. Staples latest with quotes from K-Lowe.
    Links embedded in the article as well from TSN.

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  84. Best way to shelter would be to make a "kid" line out of them imo

    We've discussed this before,and it's always followed by a suggestion that you would need 9 actual NHL players in front of them.
    If we're not signing any free agents,this could be problematic.

    I take Lowe's comments more as "we've got to get out of the whale hunting business" moreso than not signing any free agents.

    Just my opinion.

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  85. Steve: I believe it could become relevant with division rivals.

    You can outscore them early on and they quickly pass on from medium to soft.

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