According to Spector at Sportsnet Tyler Hall is demanding that the Oilers trade him because they have treated him poorly since they won the pick that they are going to use to pick him at the 2010 entry draft.
Unable to fit the #1 overall draft pick into the 2nd salary cap (once, of course, you factor in the 48.2% inflation for lottery winners) Edmonton was forced to trade the pick for 5 assets. It is rumored that President Lowe, Head Scout McGregor, Coach Quinn and soon-to-be-overweight-again star Penner enjoyed their donairs very much.
Danger Man: For Christ sakes, this is why we're fans! The Oilers have a chance to get it right for all time, this could change the course of the franchise in one fell swoop.
Don't be afraid! Rejoice!! Kiss a girl! Chase your wife around the room! Drink a bottle of rye (or in my case Pepto)!
If Boston wants Hall, I'd be fine with taking their second rounder off them to flop picks. I think Toronto's second rounder (or their 2011 1st HBomb) is blue-skying.
My heart was pounding like hell when they announced the top 5 picks throughout. I just went bonkers doing pump fists afterwards. My brother felt embarrassed for me.
Now lets hope the Oilers don't screw it up by taking Seguin. I don't think they will.
I liked that Hall has publicly stated he wants to be an Oiler, while Seguin has only stated that he wants to play on the team that wants him the most.
If Boston wants Hall, I'd be fine with taking their second rounder off them to flop picks.
Why exactly? 2nd rounders have historically very low odds in making an impact.
We have won our prize. Lets extract value from it.
Hell, we should be phoning up Boston and offering Hemsky + our 2011 first for the 2nd overall pick. (not that I'm a fan of trading Hemsky but this deal is right).
I'll admit, all else being equal I nix Hall on account of the whole Flames fan thing. The asshole.
He has stated he followed the Flames as a kid, but hasn't really had time to follow them since he moved to Ontario at an age of 13. He said if he had to pick a team now, it'd be Detroit.
We have a first overall pick and Taylor Hall wants to be here. I think it would be prudent to select him over a guy who appears to be indifferent (Seguin).
Hell, we should be phoning up Boston and offering Hemsky + our 2011 first for the 2nd overall pick. (not that I'm a fan of trading Hemsky but this deal is right).
Yikes. First of all, Boston is saying that they won't give up their pick, and if anything, they'll try to get Edmonton's.
Secondly, I suspect that Edmonton's 2011 first rounder will be, as Brian Burke would say, "a very good pick".
If you're taking it out of the "How would you feel to be an Edmonton Oiler" response I think you're reaching. I didn't know that bit about Detroit though so if you've read articles I haven't I would like to read them too!
"Boughie told me (Lowe was in the building) after the anthem and it didn't hurt," said Hall, who recorded his fourth five-point game of the season and seventh of his career. "Edmonton's a team I would love to play for."
To be honest, Hall seems more like a sincere kid than Seguin. Seguin seemed to have a cool indifference to him. As MacLean might say, he doesn't seem "engaged".
Sort of funny how Taylor was super tanned though.
I think I'll be happy with either kid. Both have ups and downs. I've sort of been trying to make pro and con lists for both.
Seguin Pros - huge improvement year over year - high goal scoring totals - put up excellent point totals despite lack of supporting cast - by most reports has excellent hockey sense and vision - natural centre, good on faceoffs, RH - room to improve strength and size - skating is above average
Seguin Cons - has failed to perform in every major game or tournament this season - reportedly gets much higher ES and PP icetime than Hall, possibly inflating scoring totals - strength is a concern presently, despite adequate size - willingness to play in front of the net and along the boards is a question mark, could hinder performance at pro levels - might not be NHL ready next season
Hall Pros - has an established track record (3 seasons) of excellent performance at the junior level - to date has performed well in playoffs and at the world juniors - point totals may be more impressive considering icetime at ES is limited by strength of team offensively and defensively (Timmins) - strong along the boards and when driving the net - possibly the best skater in the draft, both in top speed and acceleration
Hall Cons - has not shown substantial improvement year over year, suggesting possible plateauing of ability - plays on a strong team capable of generating offense, possibly without him - injuries may be a concern at the pro level due to reckless style of play - LW in junior, ability to play centre at pro questionable - may not improve on size and strength markedly form this point - possible issues with discipline and team play
Anything else that might have been missed, or appears erroneous?
That Chiarelli Twitter to me looks like they would be willing to flip picks.
I personally think Hall's The Man, but I'm not sure there's enough of a difference to not listen to any offers from Boston. On TSN it was noted that Hall wears No. 4 because Orr is his favorite player. I'd want to know how badly the Bruins want the winger.
And then I'd take the best player in the deal. Hall.
I honestly don't put too much stock into quotes like that (either way, even my Flames bit) because I don't think it makes a difference on the ice. But nice to read just in case he means it beyond saying the right thing :)
Jon K: Anything else that might have been missed, or appears erroneous?
Just the bit about losing meaningful games and not playing well in tournaments. He first exploded onto the scene in Plymouth's stretch run and had a great playoffs. Went on to jump about 10 draft spots in early projections with an excellent Ivan Hlinka tournament.
I might list this on both sides pro and con for Seguin:
might not be NHL ready next season
Would it be better to see him get one more year in jr. before hitting Edmonton ?
I don't think it would be a bad thing like Eberle to have that extra year. Especially when it looks like the 3rd year of jr. for Hall has been positive as well.
Sigh there is an article by Matheson titled "Odds in Oilers' favour" refering to the fact that the odds are in the Oiler's favour to win the draft - anyone want to try and correct them?
(of course I am refering to the article as it was written prior to the lottery).
Regwald: I suppose the difference between Eberle and Seguin (other than size, speed and pedigree.. which is a lot) is the fact that Seguin's already led the league in scoring.
Hall's a solid player, but he needs a center to play with - Hemsky's complaint all over again... Besides, I don't see the Oilers signing a #1 guy anytime soon.
I say go with the non-safe pick and shore up the center position for a long time. Look at all the teams we're emulating - they all go center. Remember, Chicago took Toews first.
Mark-Ryan: I attempted to keep that criticism to the context of this season alone. Regarding last year's stretch run however, reports have suggested that Plymouth's outburst to close the season had more to do with Caria and Terry's performances than Seguin's. I obviously wasn't following any of those games at the time though, so I'd be willing to concede the point.
I say go with the non-safe pick and shore up the center position for a long time. Look at all the teams we're emulating - they all go center. Remember, Chicago took Toews first.
On the flip side of the coin, look at how drafting for needs (2003 - Pouliot over Parise) worked out for us.
You have to go with BPA. Needs change over years. There is absolutely nothing wrong with a Gagner-Horcoff-Nash/Lander/Brule-Pouliot pairing down the middle.
I think it was misfit who said it the best: "People selecting Seguin over Hall are likely overthinking"
What's wrong with Mike Ribeiro? He has posted some strong results in the past, and is coming off a sub-par year by his standards. Still a great player.
Ehhhh, watching those interviews again both kids are nervous 18 year olds who are crapping their pants being on TV. It'll be nice to see what comes out concerning their personalities at the draft combine.
They're not going to deal the Khabibulin contract in a deal that implies that it has negative value, because of what that says about the man who offered the contract.
Ehhhh, watching those interviews again both kids are nervous 18 year olds who are crapping their pants being on TV. It'll be nice to see what comes out concerning their personalities at the draft combine.
I tend to agree with you here Jon, both in that nerves are a factor and in that there's a lot more to learn about these guys in the draft interviews and the combine. I'm honestly going to sit back, relax, and put my trust in the magnificent bastard.
Who gives a flying fuck about all star game appearances? They mean nothing.
Souray for Richards sounds decent actually. Dallas gets the dman they need and adds a couple million in cap room. The Oilers get to dump the extra Souray year and Richards' deal is only one more year. It's basically a buyout.
You just ditched a N1 center saying he's nothing more than Mike Comrie. Then you proceed on believing we could trade that broken old waste of Souray against a 90 point guy.
Seriously did you watch any hockey in the last 3 years?
Wow, I did not realize Richards had such a good year by the boxcars. Good to see him regain some form given 2-3 yrs of struggles since signing his big deal. I figured he was still free to a good home with that $7.8MM ticket.
Interesting that Ribeiro made it to his one all-star game when he shot 25% for the year. Also interesting that Desjardins has him somewhere between a 3rd and a 4th line centre according to competition for that year.
I don't see the comparison to Comrie any way whatsoever.
I think the comparison has value when you consider what these players do well. They do well picking on bottom sixers.
You could argue that Ribeiro does a better job at it than Comrie, but there's no doubt he starts a whack of shifts in the other end and typically doesn't play against legitimate first lines. I see them as similar players.
Regardless, my first point stands - what does Ribeiro do for this Oilers club next year or even the following year? What is the point of acquiring a player like that?
You could argue that Ribeiro does a better job at it than Comrie, but there's no doubt he starts a whack of shifts in the other end and typically doesn't play against legitimate first lines.
See above.
I see them as similar players.
That's unfortunate.
Regardless, my first point stands - what does Ribeiro do for this Oilers club next year or even the following year? What is the point of acquiring a player like that?
Ribeiro is signed for 3 more years. It would provide the Oilers with a legitimate 1st line centre, as well as allowing Gagner to develop playing the soft minutes on the 2nd line. Combined with Horcoff playing on the third line, the Oilers will be deep down the middle, with emerging prospects on the wing (Hall, Eberle, MPS) and Veterans (Hemsky, Penner).
At some point I want to figure out how to explain to guys like fpv that boxcars and offensive production without context, quality of comp., etc. don't tell us as much about a player as they think. (I'm going to ignore the All star game nonsense.)
Ribeiro isn't a horrible hockey player; he can really outscore weak opposition. But if you have a team full of Ribeiro's, you lose a lot of games, because they can't play tough minutes.
And guys like Ribeiro tend to cost too much since GM's overpay for offense.
If the team wants to win more in the present, they need to find cheaper players who can play tough minutes to a draw, so Hemsky and Penner can outscore and win games. Those kind of guys are fairly hard to find -especially for cheap- but if we had them, guys like Nilsson and Comrie could play softer opposition and would look a lot better.
So there's nothing wrong with Ribeiro, but he's not what we need to buy.
And we also need to think about tanking for another year... Not that anyone listens to us.
Ribeiro is clearly better than Comrie. I think RQ didn't mean to say otherwise.
But Ribeiro is in at a 5MM cap hit! For 3 more years!
That said, behindthenet.ca says Ribeiro faced the toughest comp of all Dallas forwards this year, without the best teammates. And he's got a Corsi right around 0 and a positive RelCorsi.
Maybe I've misjudged the guy as a floater too quickly. I'd be interested to see what other people think about Ribeiro's image as soft and his underlying numbers for the season.
Ribeiro according to Desjardines, played the third toughest minutes on the Dallas team
Just this past year - check the last three seasons in Dallas.
It would provide the Oilers with a legitimate 1st line centre, as well as allowing Gagner to develop playing the soft minutes on the 2nd line.
This is drunk talk.
Also forgot to say that Riberio's Corsi rates are fantastic, according to Desjardines.
Not this year, but he did start in his own end more than in the past. In fact he's a great example of the impact of zone start on Corsi - he had nice rates in 08/09 and 07/08, but started 55% of his shifts in the offensive zone in 08/09 and a whopping 70% in 07/08.
71%!?!?!? No wonder he made the all-star game. 71% of faceoffs in the offensive zone and 25% shooting. How do these Oilers manage to shelter a player like that?
Ask Ribeiro to pull a bigger load and he's a negative Corsi player.
Kris: Sure he's not the guy you call to go into the corners, but he's in the elite of the stickhandlers in the NHL.
I believe he may be reasonable expactations of what gagner could be.
He's there to score goals, and produce offense. A good option if you draft Hall, or if you get rid of Horcoff. He will help the young guns produce, by distributing the puck around him. He's a playmaker, an offensive quarterback when he's on the ice. i'd say he looks a lot like Hemsky. Tough i think Hemsky is faster, but Ribeiro a little better at Stickhandling.
My impression of Ribeiro may come from the last two years. In 2008-2009 he faced middling competition with good teammates. And in 2007/2008 he faced the softest possible opposition and scored a career high 83 points with a ridiculous SH%. That's the Ribeiro I remember.
He may have emerged as a serious first line guy. Thoughts?
''Ask Ribeiro to pull a bigger load and he's a negative Corsi player.''
SO WHAT?! He still brings the results home. He got talent. Corsi (As previously shown by another member) has only a 0,55 correlation with future success. Going only by Corsi is more than Drunk Talk. It's being totally oblivious to anything else.
And even if he had 25%, his game is passing, not shooting.
He's there to score goals, and produce offense. A good option if you draft Hall, or if you get rid of Horcoff. He will help the young guns produce?
And who will help the "young guns" (God, that phrase makes me want to puke. I remember all the times the Oilers have thrown it at me.) while the best players in the league dance all over their fucking heads while they fumble around in their own zone like the South East Krygystan Women's Curling team trying to defend against the 87 Canada Cup team with Lemieux and Gretzky?
SO WHAT?! He still brings the results home. He got talent. Corsi (As previously shown by another member) has only a 0,55 correlation with future success. Going only by Corsi is more than Drunk Talk. It's being totally oblivious to anything else.
And even if he had 25%, his game is passing, not shooting.
IF you had 25%, You GOT results, 0,214 going by Drunk Talk. That;s being oblivious at success.
Seriously, did you translate your comment from French to English to Japanese and then back again to English with one of those on-line translators before you posted it?
PunjabiOil said... Ah RiversQ, what's the point of debating if you're going to selectively pick and choose the stats from the years that you want to?
OK let's review:
You love 2009/2010 because you get all wet looking at the quality of competition. No mention of the boxcars and the mediocre Corsi.
However, you also raved about his big boxcar years and big Corsi rates in 07/08 and 08/09. In those cases he most definitely got the soft parade. Unfortunately the three seasons don't all jive with each other in terms of how he was used.
I've given you a more complete picture. There are three years to look at here and you can't have it both ways and neither can Ribeiro apparently.
Riberio was playing softer minutes under Tippett with middling team mates, but Crawford threw him at the heavies this year and he had the toughest QC among Stars fowards at 5v5.
He had 1/15 QC for forwards who played more than 40 games 5v5.
He had 9/15 QT for forwards who played more than 40 games 5v5.
He ended up -0.13 +/- /60, PDO 990
For a comp lets look at Horcoff
2/14 QC, 8/14 QT -1.59 +/- /60 PDO 960
Horcoff Cap 5.5, Ribero 5.0
If the Oilers don't take Seguin, I don't see the problem here. IF the goal is to start making the playoffs.
Kris makes a good point, what is the goal in the next couple of years? Ribeiro will help with a short term goal, but not a long term goal.
Mind you, if the goal is getting the best player for 44, he may be the answer.
He handled the toughs not too bad, probably had better help than 10 did though.
Centers who can play tougher minutes aren't usually available. On the Oilers 10 should get the toughest minutes, so Ribero should flourish.
Also,
Ribeiro PK's at 7.50 GA/60, 2nd best on Dallas forwards, 10 killed at 6.26GA/60 3rd best on the Oilers (18 was 1st!!??!)
My thing is that Hall strikes me as more of a sure thing. Three years of elite OHL production vs. just a single year of elite OHL production. This year might have been even, but doesn't consistency mean something? If Hall was ahead of Seguin earlier and at least equal to him now... is he not more of a sure thing than a guy who has only had one elite levlel season?
However, you also raved about his big boxcar years and big Corsi rates in 07/08 and 08/09. In those cases he most definitely got the soft parade. Unfortunately the three seasons don't all jive with each other in terms of how he was used.
I've given you a more complete picture. There are three years to look at here and you can't have it both ways and neither can Ribeiro apparently.
So Ribeiro gets better results against softer competition?
And who will help the "young guns" (God, that phrase makes me want to puke. I remember all the times the Oilers have thrown it at me.) while the best players in the league dance all over their fucking heads while they fumble around in their own zone like the South East Krygystan Women's Curling team trying to defend against the 87 Canada Cup team with Lemieux and Gretzky?
Not to mention that 8th best QT on the Oilers is very likely to be significantly inferior to 8th best QT on pretty much any other team in the Western Conference.
While acknowledging he would listen to trade offers, Tambellini said he was inclined to keep the pick.
"I'm sure there's lots of teams that have ideas how to make our team better," he said. "I always have to listen. ... We're focused right now on the No. 1 pick. For us to move that pick at this point, I can't think of what it would have to be."
How can you accord so much importance to QualComp and QualTeam when, in the calculation of this stat, they don't consider the QualComp or QualTeam or Opposition/Teamates.
If your teamates kills the soft, he'l still be super high QualTeam. Same goes for the opposition.
PJO: If Hall's performance so far hasn't swayed them I'm not sure anything will. He's averaging over a goal per game in the playoffs. I think Stamkos is the most recent draft-eligible player to do that.
I hope Windsor gets all the way to the Mem Cup finals so we can get an extended look at how he plays against the CHL's best.
And, shamelessly, so I have a reason to drive two hours to get plastered in Brandon. Toni Rajala, Milan Kytnar and Taylor Hall would be a pretty good reason to make the trip, IMO.
It's a type of conversation I've given up on at this point, at least here. The other side is going to run out selective numbers (and finding ANY set of continuous numbers that shows Riberio as a #1 center that "can shelter Gagner" is going to be MASSIVELY selective) to try an prove a point. Then they'll do the same to attempt to show Horcoff's worth or lack of worth.
It's a shitshow when the word Horcoff is mentioned, much worse than it was with Penner when I gave up talking about him to the hive.
I could probably write about it, but like the Penner piece, it will have an impact on those that think clearly and use more than their gut and confirmation bias to come to conclusions. But the rest - the ones that keep fighting the selected stats fight - will ignore it and go about their merry way espousing all kinds of falsehoods in the numbers.
Unlike so many here I do not have a preference for either of the top two. Not sure why....... but 2-3 years out I have a distinct impression that one of the two of them is going to noticeably outstrip the other.
No clue who it will be but and this is the scariest part---if it is the Magnificent Bastard making the pick, I suspect he will get it right. "Tambi" (patent pending) and Lowe......could blow absolutely anything
It was an interesting comment Tambellini made in that, "Part of the evaluation process will be which player can better handle the pressure of being number 1 overall"
I think Seguin is the better choice. However, it is a little different when you know the Oilers have to choose (and Hall being the safer bet).
I think the Oilers will make a good choice (the problem imo with this organization isn't drafting, it's development) at number one and both of these guys will have fine careers.
I'm pretty happy the Oilers will be giving the Magnificent Bastard the freedom to make the right pick (this based on Tambellini's stammering on PPV not long ago).
LT, here's exactly what Brownlee has had to say today.
Exhibit A: "Archaeologuy wrote: If the rumblings from RB and Stauffer are correct, I'd start warming up to Seguin if I were you.
Brownlee responds: Rumblings?
I'd suggest that unless Seguin runs away to join the circus as the bearded lady or slips in the shower and dislocates his spine between now and draft day, he's the guy."
Exhibit B: "Brownlee wrote: That was a month ago, March 14, and I wrote:
"Assuming the NHL draft lottery doesn't go sideways, the Oilers keep the No. 1 pick in June and they select Taylor Hall -- I believe he's the guy they want just a tick ahead of centre Tyler Seguin -- Lowe should tell equipment man Lyle Kulchisky to pull his No. 4 jersey out of mothballs."
Then, on March 31, I wrote: "I wrote not long ago I believed the Oilers were leaning toward Hall, a dynamic left winger who is less than three months older than Seguin, but has one full OHL season more on his resume. If the Oilers want the player who is most NHL ready now -- which doesn't preclude him from staying a tick ahead of Seguin five or seven years down the road -- then he's the guy. "But, if MacGregor and the Oilers scouting staff think Seguin, who fits an obvious need at centre, projects better beyond the next couple of training camps when, successful rebuild willing, this franchise is on the upswing, well, duh, he's the guy."
A case for both, or fence-sitting if you prefer, but that "tick" I talked about a month ago no longer exists, based on what I've been able to gather. I'm saying Seguin today and I won't be flip-flopping between now and draft day."
-----
On my reading it seems that Brownlee is tipping his hat toward Seguin.
jon k: Well, if we have confirmation that both Stauffer and Brownlee are saying Seguin (and it sounds like it based on reading what you've posted) then the smart money is on Seguin.
“Central Scouting's choices are always very interesting. They can make you rethink and have another look at where you have a player positioned. In many ways Central Scouting is a little bit more pure because they deal with only what you see on the ice and have no part of a team's particular need,” said McGregor.
McGregor, as head scout, makes the final pick.
While there's been the suggestion that this is one year you might want to lose the lottery and select second because the two players are so close that it takes you off the hook, McGregor says he'll be celebrating Tuesday if the Oilers, with their 48.2% odds, win the first pick.
“They are both pretty special guys. And either way having the unbelievable experience our scouting staff has had this year to dig very deep in evaluating these two players is only going to make us better. I'd love to have the opportunity to make that pick.”
McGregor said there's plenty to debate about but McGuire had the right idea about projecting down the road.
“We've all seen players who had great breakout years but don't make the same impact down the road. The difference is what that player is going to become four, five and six years from now.”
Raised on HF, a point that we selected Gagner (center) over Voracek (winger). It's probably fair to state that Voracek had the upper edge at the moment.
I just do not subscribe to the theory of drafting for need. Needs change quickly (look no further than the 'puck moving defencemen' saga)
It killed us many times in the past (Parise/Pouliot), and to a much lesser extent (Voracek/Gagner). Kevin Lowe was also stating before 2007 draft on how the Oilers might use their 15th overall pick on a defenceman to fill the pipeline with a defensive prospect. Makes my blood boil.
Bob McKenzie indicated on TSN that the Oilers aren't sure at this point on who to select.
Funny how Hall is considered the "pure goal scorer" but Seguin has more goals. Can Hall physically dominate at the next level the way that he has in the OHL? I don't think there's much evidence that Seguin will be a better player than Hall - but the reverse is also true of Hall over Seguin.
Anybody notice something different?
If it's a dead heat between Hall and Seguin in terms of skill (or is it?) I think it comes down to attitude. Which player brings the same kind of punch to the locker room? I think they described Hall as fearless and Seguin as being cerebral.
These characteristics are not mutually exclusive though.
MacGregor made the projecting comment before. His words (loosely quoted) went like 'people need to understand that we need to project whos going to be the better pro'
By adding 'people need to understand' made me think he has his sights on Seguin. Hall is the consensus fan favourite, and will get results quicker than Seguin IMO.
If MacGregors resolve on Tyler being the better pick is strong enough to weather a few years of looking stupid, then how can you argue with that?
According to Spector at Sportsnet Tyler Hall is demanding that the Oilers trade him because they have treated him poorly since they won the pick that they are going to use to pick him at the 2010 entry draft.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to Edmonton Mr. Seguin, just ignore Vish, we all do.
ReplyDeleteWith MPS coming 1LW is covered. 1C is now covered.
Okay, I will be the first to say it (which in no way makes this more forgivable):
ReplyDelete-what would you trade for the #1 pick?
Bookie,
ReplyDeleteNice work sir.
And with the first pick overall, the Edmonton Oilers select Robin Kovar!
ReplyDeleteSome of the other vets on the team are sticking up for management.
ReplyDeleteIt will be Hall. It's a safe pick and he's NHL ready.
ReplyDeleteI'm scared, I hope they pick the right player.
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall on the Edmonton Oilers:
ReplyDelete"I grew up in Alberta but was a Calgary fan".
From right after the Oilers won the draft lottery on TSN.
Unable to fit the #1 overall draft pick into the 2nd salary cap (once, of course, you factor in the 48.2% inflation for lottery winners) Edmonton was forced to trade the pick for 5 assets. It is rumored that President Lowe, Head Scout McGregor, Coach Quinn and soon-to-be-overweight-again star Penner enjoyed their donairs very much.
ReplyDeleteGM Steve Tambellini is still evaluating his.
Considering the Bruins' depth down the middle one has to figure they're more interested in Hall.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the Oilers' depth down the middle one has to figure they're more interested in Seguin.
I wonder if Tambellini is clever enough to wrangle a top 100 pick out of Boston to remove all doubt in getting Hall.
With the first overall pick, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select
ReplyDeleteKeegan Lowe
Danger Man: For Christ sakes, this is why we're fans! The Oilers have a chance to get it right for all time, this could change the course of the franchise in one fell swoop.
ReplyDeleteDon't be afraid! Rejoice!! Kiss a girl! Chase your wife around the room! Drink a bottle of rye (or in my case Pepto)!
Have fun! Smile! Dance! We WON!!!
Some of the other vets on the team are sticking up for management.
ReplyDeleteBookie this sort of article is not going to gel with the pitchfork crowd.
Congratulations. I hope either Hall or Seguin has a long, distinguished career with Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteIn other great news. Romero is throwing gas tonight for the Jays. (not jinxing what he is doing atm)
ReplyDeleteIn other great news. Romero is throwing gas tonight for the Jays. (not jinxing what he is doing atm)
ReplyDeleteDid I hear the PBP guy right? 12K's in 6 innings? Lordy.
In watching the TSN show it appeared to me that Tambi knew already that he had the number 1 before the envelopes were opened.
ReplyDeleteHe would have known right?
I think Boston really wants Hall. I wonder if Tambo would take the Leafs second round pick to move down one spot.
ReplyDeleteThey should scrap the shootout and decide tie games with a lottery!
ReplyDeleteLT: I'm fine thank you for your concern. I will embrace whoever we pick and I will repeat that at least once a day until the draft.
ReplyDeleteUh, Mr Hall, meet your new stalker.
Hey, if Boston wants Hall, offer them the 1st overall pick in exchange for the 2nd overall pick....
ReplyDelete....plus the Leafs 2011 first rounder.
THAT would be shrewd management.
If Boston wants Hall, I'd be fine with taking their second rounder off them to flop picks. I think Toronto's second rounder (or their 2011 1st HBomb) is blue-skying.
ReplyDeleteWhat a fucking awesome day.
ReplyDeleteMy heart was pounding like hell when they announced the top 5 picks throughout. I just went bonkers doing pump fists afterwards. My brother felt embarrassed for me.
Now lets hope the Oilers don't screw it up by taking Seguin. I don't think they will.
I liked that Hall has publicly stated he wants to be an Oiler, while Seguin has only stated that he wants to play on the team that wants him the most.
Would you do something like...
ReplyDeleteOilers' 1st overall + Moreau
for Boston's 2nd overall?
...or would/could you try to get any more sweeteners out of Boston than that?
If Boston wants Hall, I'd be fine with taking their second rounder off them to flop picks.
ReplyDeleteWhy exactly? 2nd rounders have historically very low odds in making an impact.
We have won our prize. Lets extract value from it.
Hell, we should be phoning up Boston and offering Hemsky + our 2011 first for the 2nd overall pick. (not that I'm a fan of trading Hemsky but this deal is right).
I'll admit, all else being equal I nix Hall on account of the whole Flames fan thing. The asshole.
ReplyDeleteHe has stated he followed the Flames as a kid, but hasn't really had time to follow them since he moved to Ontario at an age of 13. He said if he had to pick a team now, it'd be Detroit.
We have a first overall pick and Taylor Hall wants to be here. I think it would be prudent to select him over a guy who appears to be indifferent (Seguin).
Hell, we should be phoning up Boston and offering Hemsky + our 2011 first for the 2nd overall pick. (not that I'm a fan of trading Hemsky but this deal is right).
ReplyDeleteYikes. First of all, Boston is saying that they won't give up their pick, and if anything, they'll try to get Edmonton's.
Secondly, I suspect that Edmonton's 2011 first rounder will be, as Brian Burke would say, "a very good pick".
Oilers' 1st overall + Moreau
ReplyDeletefor Boston's 2nd overall?
No. Why would we?
What's one more year of a 2M cap hit?
Big picture, bro. Big picture.
Taylor Hall wants to be here.
ReplyDeleteProve this.
If you're taking it out of the "How would you feel to be an Edmonton Oiler" response I think you're reaching. I didn't know that bit about Detroit though so if you've read articles I haven't I would like to read them too!
Showerhead:
ReplyDelete"Boughie told me (Lowe was in the building) after the anthem and it didn't hurt," said Hall, who recorded his fourth five-point game of the season and seventh of his career. "Edmonton's a team I would love to play for."
http://www.windsorstar.com/sports/Hall+hits+point+mark/2644010/story.html
There were also numerous quotes at the World Juniors in which he stated the same thing.
Heh, well, what would you accept, then? Every man has a price...
ReplyDeleteHow about:
Oilers' 1st + Khabibulin
for Boston's 1st
Or is Khabi's 3 years not that great of a liability for the club?
I wouldn't accept that proposal either. Honestly, I don't see any reason to trade Hall.
ReplyDeleteHe has franchise player written all over him, while Seguin is still a bit questionable.
Look how it worked out for teams like Florida who traded away their first overall pick a couple of times.
PJO is giddy with excitement.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, Hall seems more like a sincere kid than Seguin. Seguin seemed to have a cool indifference to him. As MacLean might say, he doesn't seem "engaged".
Sort of funny how Taylor was super tanned though.
I think I'll be happy with either kid. Both have ups and downs. I've sort of been trying to make pro and con lists for both.
Seguin Pros
- huge improvement year over year
- high goal scoring totals
- put up excellent point totals despite lack of supporting cast
- by most reports has excellent hockey sense and vision
- natural centre, good on faceoffs, RH
- room to improve strength and size
- skating is above average
Seguin Cons
- has failed to perform in every major game or tournament this season
- reportedly gets much higher ES and PP icetime than Hall, possibly inflating scoring totals
- strength is a concern presently, despite adequate size
- willingness to play in front of the net and along the boards is a question mark, could hinder performance at pro levels
- might not be NHL ready next season
Hall Pros
- has an established track record (3 seasons) of excellent performance at the junior level
- to date has performed well in playoffs and at the world juniors
- point totals may be more impressive considering icetime at ES is limited by strength of team offensively and defensively (Timmins)
- strong along the boards and when driving the net
- possibly the best skater in the draft, both in top speed and acceleration
Hall Cons
- has not shown substantial improvement year over year, suggesting possible plateauing of ability
- plays on a strong team capable of generating offense, possibly without him
- injuries may be a concern at the pro level due to reckless style of play
- LW in junior, ability to play centre at pro questionable
- may not improve on size and strength markedly form this point
- possible issues with discipline and team play
Anything else that might have been missed, or appears erroneous?
Alright!
ReplyDeleteSeguin, please...
What, no Souray thrown into any deal?
ReplyDeleteThat Chiarelli Twitter to me looks like they would be willing to flip picks.
I personally think Hall's The Man, but I'm not sure there's enough of a difference to not listen to any offers from Boston. On TSN it was noted that Hall wears No. 4 because Orr is his favorite player. I'd want to know how badly the Bruins want the winger.
And then I'd take the best player in the deal. Hall.
PJO Thank you!
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't put too much stock into quotes like that (either way, even my Flames bit) because I don't think it makes a difference on the ice. But nice to read just in case he means it beyond saying the right thing :)
Jon K: Anything else that might have been missed, or appears erroneous?
ReplyDeleteJust the bit about losing meaningful games and not playing well in tournaments. He first exploded onto the scene in Plymouth's stretch run and had a great playoffs. Went on to jump about 10 draft spots in early projections with an excellent Ivan Hlinka tournament.
@jon k
ReplyDeleteI might list this on both sides pro and con for Seguin:
might not be NHL ready next season
Would it be better to see him get one more year in jr. before hitting Edmonton ?
I don't think it would be a bad thing like Eberle to have that extra year. Especially when it looks like the 3rd year of jr. for Hall has been positive as well.
I like the thought of one more jr. year for him.
Sigh there is an article by Matheson titled "Odds in Oilers' favour" refering to the fact that the odds are in the Oiler's favour to win the draft - anyone want to try and correct them?
ReplyDelete(of course I am refering to the article as it was written prior to the lottery).
Hall put up 45 goals in 63 games as a 16 year old, among the team leaders in scoring.
ReplyDeleteWindsor runs 4 lines, and if he was getting the icetime and PP time like Seguin is, I think he'd do just as good/better.
Hall is a guy who has stepped it up whenever it's counted. WJC, Memorial Cup (MVP), OHL playoffs. He's a legitimate guy.
As for him plateauing - that's what they said about John Tavares.
This summer would be great if we can draft Hall and swap Souray for Mike Ribeiro.
Regwald: I suppose the difference between Eberle and Seguin (other than size, speed and pedigree.. which is a lot) is the fact that Seguin's already led the league in scoring.
ReplyDeletewell i thought finishing 29th would have been better as the 29th place team has won the lottery more, right Gregor? Right?
ReplyDeleteHall's a solid player, but he needs a center to play with - Hemsky's complaint all over again... Besides, I don't see the Oilers signing a #1 guy anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteI say go with the non-safe pick and shore up the center position for a long time. Look at all the teams we're emulating - they all go center. Remember, Chicago took Toews first.
I'd take Tyler Seguin over Taylor Hall.
ReplyDeleteMark-Ryan: I attempted to keep that criticism to the context of this season alone. Regarding last year's stretch run however, reports have suggested that Plymouth's outburst to close the season had more to do with Caria and Terry's performances than Seguin's. I obviously wasn't following any of those games at the time though, so I'd be willing to concede the point.
ReplyDeleteThis summer would be great if we can draft Hall and swap Souray for Mike Ribeiro.
ReplyDeleteWow. Uh, why exactly?
I say go with the non-safe pick and shore up the center position for a long time. Look at all the teams we're emulating - they all go center. Remember, Chicago took Toews first.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side of the coin, look at how drafting for needs (2003 - Pouliot over Parise) worked out for us.
You have to go with BPA. Needs change over years. There is absolutely nothing wrong with a Gagner-Horcoff-Nash/Lander/Brule-Pouliot pairing down the middle.
I think it was misfit who said it the best: "People selecting Seguin over Hall are likely overthinking"
Wow. Uh, why exactly?
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong with Mike Ribeiro? He has posted some strong results in the past, and is coming off a sub-par year by his standards. Still a great player.
Ehhhh, watching those interviews again both kids are nervous 18 year olds who are crapping their pants being on TV. It'll be nice to see what comes out concerning their personalities at the draft combine.
ReplyDeleteThey're not going to deal the Khabibulin contract in a deal that implies that it has negative value, because of what that says about the man who offered the contract.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side of the coin, look at how drafting for needs (2003 - Pouliot over Parise) worked out for us.
ReplyDeleteExcept this time, the experts are divided as well meaning there's a way better chance the players in question are actually pretty equal.
Isnt Hall a natural center? Isnt this the first year hes played on the wing?
ReplyDeleteEhhhh, watching those interviews again both kids are nervous 18 year olds who are crapping their pants being on TV. It'll be nice to see what comes out concerning their personalities at the draft combine.
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree with you here Jon, both in that nerves are a factor and in that there's a lot more to learn about these guys in the draft interviews and the combine. I'm honestly going to sit back, relax, and put my trust in the magnificent bastard.
Ribeiro is Mike Comrie. Nothing to write home about. Anyway what good is Ribeiro going to do? Although I suppose you take what you can get for Souray.
ReplyDeleteRiversQ: Yeah i guess Mike Comrie's been to the all star game twice also.
ReplyDeleteWho gives a flying fuck about all star game appearances? They mean nothing.
ReplyDeleteSouray for Richards sounds decent actually. Dallas gets the dman they need and adds a couple million in cap room. The Oilers get to dump the extra Souray year and Richards' deal is only one more year. It's basically a buyout.
RiversQ: You're insane.
ReplyDeleteYou just ditched a N1 center saying he's nothing more than Mike Comrie. Then you proceed on believing we could trade that broken old waste of Souray against a 90 point guy.
Seriously did you watch any hockey in the last 3 years?
Riberio put up 83 and 78 points before this year. He struggled with injuries this year, but still put up a respectable 53 in 66 games.
ReplyDeleteI don't see the comparison to Comrie any way whatsoever.
What would it take to get Florida's pick?
ReplyDeleteSouray and ?
Wow, I did not realize Richards had such a good year by the boxcars. Good to see him regain some form given 2-3 yrs of struggles since signing his big deal. I figured he was still free to a good home with that $7.8MM ticket.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Ribeiro made it to his one all-star game when he shot 25% for the year. Also interesting that Desjardins has him somewhere between a 3rd and a 4th line centre according to competition for that year.
Hall's a Flames fan, you say? Well, that explains the look on his face then.
ReplyDeleteI flipped a Seguin again.
If looking smart has any bearing on who goes first, Hall's fucked!:o)
ReplyDeleteI don't see the comparison to Comrie any way whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteI think the comparison has value when you consider what these players do well. They do well picking on bottom sixers.
You could argue that Ribeiro does a better job at it than Comrie, but there's no doubt he starts a whack of shifts in the other end and typically doesn't play against legitimate first lines. I see them as similar players.
Regardless, my first point stands - what does Ribeiro do for this Oilers club next year or even the following year? What is the point of acquiring a player like that?
RiversQ: I don't know.... how about SCORING GOALS?
ReplyDeleteI think the comparison has value when you consider what these players do well. They do well picking on bottom sixers.
ReplyDeleteHave you looked at Comrie's EV scoring rates lately?
Hint: They're not sexy.
Ribeiro according to Desjardines, played the third toughest minutes on the Dallas team
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=8§ion=qualcomp&mingp=20&mintoi=&team=DAL&pos=
You could argue that Ribeiro does a better job at it than Comrie, but there's no doubt he starts a whack of shifts in the other end and typically doesn't play against legitimate first lines.
See above.
I see them as similar players.
That's unfortunate.
Regardless, my first point stands - what does Ribeiro do for this Oilers club next year or even the following year? What is the point of acquiring a player like that?
Ribeiro is signed for 3 more years. It would provide the Oilers with a legitimate 1st line centre, as well as allowing Gagner to develop playing the soft minutes on the 2nd line. Combined with Horcoff playing on the third line, the Oilers will be deep down the middle, with emerging prospects on the wing (Hall, Eberle, MPS) and Veterans (Hemsky, Penner).
So who did we draft? Brian Lawton?
ReplyDelete---
At some point I want to figure out how to explain to guys like fpv that boxcars and offensive production without context, quality of comp., etc. don't tell us as much about a player as they think. (I'm going to ignore the All star game nonsense.)
Ribeiro isn't a horrible hockey player; he can really outscore weak opposition. But if you have a team full of Ribeiro's, you lose a lot of games, because they can't play tough minutes.
And guys like Ribeiro tend to cost too much since GM's overpay for offense.
If the team wants to win more in the present, they need to find cheaper players who can play tough minutes to a draw, so Hemsky and Penner can outscore and win games. Those kind of guys are fairly hard to find -especially for cheap- but if we had them, guys like Nilsson and Comrie could play softer opposition and would look a lot better.
So there's nothing wrong with Ribeiro, but he's not what we need to buy.
And we also need to think about tanking for another year... Not that anyone listens to us.
Also forgot to say that Riberio's Corsi rates are fantastic, according to Desjardines.
ReplyDeleteAnd we also need to think about tanking for another year.
ReplyDeleteIs that worth losing both of Hemsky/Penner?
Truthfully, the Oilers 'lucked' out this year with injuries to Khabibulin and Hemsky. There is no reason to actively tank next year.
These posts make me laugh. The imagery of an apple-cheeked young boy baiting an old grizzled junkyard dog comes to mind.
ReplyDeletePJO,
ReplyDeleteRibeiro is clearly better than Comrie. I think RQ didn't mean to say otherwise.
But Ribeiro is in at a 5MM cap hit! For 3 more years!
That said, behindthenet.ca says Ribeiro faced the toughest comp of all Dallas forwards this year, without the best teammates. And he's got a Corsi right around 0 and a positive RelCorsi.
Maybe I've misjudged the guy as a floater too quickly. I'd be interested to see what other people think about Ribeiro's image as soft and his underlying numbers for the season.
Ribeiro according to Desjardines, played the third toughest minutes on the Dallas team
ReplyDeleteJust this past year - check the last three seasons in Dallas.
It would provide the Oilers with a legitimate 1st line centre, as well as allowing Gagner to develop playing the soft minutes on the 2nd line.
This is drunk talk.
Also forgot to say that Riberio's Corsi rates are fantastic, according to Desjardines.
Not this year, but he did start in his own end more than in the past. In fact he's a great example of the impact of zone start on Corsi - he had nice rates in 08/09 and 07/08, but started 55% of his shifts in the offensive zone in 08/09 and a whopping 70% in 07/08.
71%!?!?!? No wonder he made the all-star game. 71% of faceoffs in the offensive zone and 25% shooting. How do these Oilers manage to shelter a player like that?
Ask Ribeiro to pull a bigger load and he's a negative Corsi player.
Kris: Sure he's not the guy you call to go into the corners, but he's in the elite of the stickhandlers in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI believe he may be reasonable expactations of what gagner could be.
He's there to score goals, and produce offense. A good option if you draft Hall, or if you get rid of Horcoff. He will help the young guns produce, by distributing the puck around him. He's a playmaker, an offensive quarterback when he's on the ice. i'd say he looks a lot like Hemsky. Tough i think Hemsky is faster, but Ribeiro a little better at Stickhandling.
My impression of Ribeiro may come from the last two years. In 2008-2009 he faced middling competition with good teammates. And in 2007/2008 he faced the softest possible opposition and scored a career high 83 points with a ridiculous SH%. That's the Ribeiro I remember.
ReplyDeleteHe may have emerged as a serious first line guy. Thoughts?
RiversQ:
ReplyDelete''Ask Ribeiro to pull a bigger load and he's a negative Corsi player.''
SO WHAT?! He still brings the results home. He got talent. Corsi (As previously shown by another member) has only a 0,55 correlation with future success.
Going only by Corsi is more than Drunk Talk. It's being totally oblivious to anything else.
And even if he had 25%, his game is passing, not shooting.
He's still a better player than Shawn Horcoff.
And, again, I really think the Oilers need to be buying younger guys, cheaper guys, and guys who aren't going to be UFA in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteWe're still -in fact, we're just now starting in earnest, thanks to Tamblowe- a long rebuild.
I'd aim at moving Souray for somebody else's short term cap problem and a young guy.
Quick FPB, tell us how awesome Vincent Lecavalier is!
ReplyDeleteAh RiversQ, what's the point of debating if you're going to selectively pick and choose the stats from the years that you want to?
ReplyDeleteHe's there to score goals, and produce offense. A good option if you draft Hall, or if you get rid of Horcoff. He will help the young guns produce?
ReplyDeleteAnd who will help the "young guns" (God, that phrase makes me want to puke. I remember all the times the Oilers have thrown it at me.) while the best players in the league dance all over their fucking heads while they fumble around in their own zone like the South East Krygystan Women's Curling team trying to defend against the 87 Canada Cup team with Lemieux and Gretzky?
Now that's a sentence!
LeCavalier's still pretty good. *waits for slipper to beat me with a shoe*
ReplyDeleteKris: Well if your convinced that Shawn Horcoff is a better option.
ReplyDeleteGo ahead.
SO WHAT?! He still brings the results home. He got talent. Corsi (As previously shown by another member) has only a 0,55 correlation with future success.
ReplyDeleteGoing only by Corsi is more than Drunk Talk. It's being totally oblivious to anything else.
And even if he had 25%, his game is passing, not shooting.
IF you had 25%, You GOT results, 0,214 going by Drunk Talk. That;s being oblivious at success.
Seriously, did you translate your comment from French to English to Japanese and then back again to English with one of those on-line translators before you posted it?
:)
Hall saying he grew up a Flames fan... Hall = Edmonton's Iginla?
ReplyDeleteKris: Go ahead and talk to me in French or Spanish.
ReplyDeleteWITHOUT using a translator.
Smartass.
PunjabiOil said...
ReplyDeleteAh RiversQ, what's the point of debating if you're going to selectively pick and choose the stats from the years that you want to?
OK let's review:
You love 2009/2010 because you get all wet looking at the quality of competition. No mention of the boxcars and the mediocre Corsi.
However, you also raved about his big boxcar years and big Corsi rates in 07/08 and 08/09. In those cases he most definitely got the soft parade. Unfortunately the three seasons don't all jive with each other in terms of how he was used.
I've given you a more complete picture. There are three years to look at here and you can't have it both ways and neither can Ribeiro apparently.
Corsi (As previously shown by another member) has only a 0,55 correlation with future success.
ReplyDeleteWhere is the link for this?
Riberio was playing softer minutes under Tippett with middling team mates, but Crawford threw him at the heavies this year and he had the toughest QC among Stars fowards at 5v5.
ReplyDeleteHe had 1/15 QC for forwards who played more than 40 games 5v5.
He had 9/15 QT for forwards who played more than 40 games 5v5.
He ended up -0.13 +/- /60, PDO 990
For a comp lets look at Horcoff
2/14 QC, 8/14 QT -1.59 +/- /60 PDO 960
Horcoff Cap 5.5, Ribero 5.0
If the Oilers don't take Seguin, I don't see the problem here. IF the goal is to start making the playoffs.
Kris makes a good point, what is the goal in the next couple of years? Ribeiro will help with a short term goal, but not a long term goal.
Mind you, if the goal is getting the best player for 44, he may be the answer.
He handled the toughs not too bad, probably had better help than 10 did though.
Centers who can play tougher minutes aren't usually available. On the Oilers 10 should get the toughest minutes, so Ribero should flourish.
Also,
Ribeiro PK's at 7.50 GA/60, 2nd best on Dallas forwards, 10 killed at 6.26GA/60 3rd best on the Oilers (18 was 1st!!??!)
My thing is that Hall strikes me as more of a sure thing. Three years of elite OHL production vs. just a single year of elite OHL production. This year might have been even, but doesn't consistency mean something? If Hall was ahead of Seguin earlier and at least equal to him now... is he not more of a sure thing than a guy who has only had one elite levlel season?
ReplyDeleteHowever, you also raved about his big boxcar years and big Corsi rates in 07/08 and 08/09. In those cases he most definitely got the soft parade. Unfortunately the three seasons don't all jive with each other in terms of how he was used.
ReplyDeleteI've given you a more complete picture. There are three years to look at here and you can't have it both ways and neither can Ribeiro apparently.
So Ribeiro gets better results against softer competition?
You don't say.
"This summer would be great if we can draft Hall and swap Souray for Mike Ribeiro."
ReplyDeletePersonally I'd probably projectile vomit but if Ribeiro does end up in Edmonton it'll be proof positive MacT still has his fingers in the pie.
You love 2009/2010 because you get all wet looking at the quality of competition. No mention of the boxcars and the mediocre Corsi
ReplyDeleteI did mention his Corsi, and as per the link I posted, he's among the Stars leader in each of the 4 Corsi categories.
And who will help the "young guns" (God, that phrase makes me want to puke. I remember all the times the Oilers have thrown it at me.) while the best players in the league dance all over their fucking heads while they fumble around in their own zone like the South East Krygystan Women's Curling team trying to defend against the 87 Canada Cup team with Lemieux and Gretzky?
ReplyDeleteThat shit made me laugh out loud, son. Thank you!
We need to figure out one of these days whether Goal or Corsi-rated Qual measures are the gold standard. They paint very different pictures.
ReplyDeleteRibiero's QualTeam is #2 if you use the relative Corsi measure, #4 if you use Corsi, and #9 using normal.
It kind of lends itself to people being able to select whichever best makes their point.
Horcoff's are 7/8/8, so not much variation.
(For the record, I'm mostly a fan of the Corsi brands.)
Hey Seguin was born in January. Malcom Gladwell would say pick him.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think if Boston really wants one of these guys, targeting their pick from Toronto for next year would be a very good idea.
ReplyDeleteOilers win the lottery and even they aren't dumb enough to fuck this one up, or are they?
ReplyDeleteThen Souray blows the lid and Tambellini the fucking general manager hasn't even talked to him once since January!?
Good thing these young players don't yet know what a disaster they're getting into.
Quain,
ReplyDeleteNot to mention that 8th best QT on the Oilers is very likely to be significantly inferior to 8th best QT on pretty much any other team in the Western Conference.
Hall reminds me of Gordie Howe - an idiot who can play the game of hockey on it's highest levels.
ReplyDeleteWhile acknowledging he would listen to trade offers, Tambellini said he was inclined to keep the pick.
ReplyDelete"I'm sure there's lots of teams that have ideas how to make our team better," he said. "I always have to listen. ... We're focused right now on the No. 1 pick. For us to move that pick at this point, I can't think of what it would have to be."
Tambellini - the village bumpkin.
The thing that concerns me is that Stauffer and most recently (Robin Brownlee on ON) are suggesting the Oilers will take Seguin.
ReplyDeleteLets hope Hall puts up an MVP type performance in the remainder of these playoffs.
Brownlee has essentially confirmed over at OilersNation that the Oilers will pick Seguin, giggling the whole way as they run to the podium.
ReplyDeleteI certainly hope Tambellini tries to extract a draft pick from Boston for the insurance of getting Hall.
How can you accord so much importance to QualComp and QualTeam when, in the calculation of this stat, they don't consider the QualComp or QualTeam or Opposition/Teamates.
ReplyDeleteIf your teamates kills the soft, he'l still be super high QualTeam. Same goes for the opposition.
PJO: If Hall's performance so far hasn't swayed them I'm not sure anything will. He's averaging over a goal per game in the playoffs. I think Stamkos is the most recent draft-eligible player to do that.
ReplyDeleteBrownlee has essentially confirmed over at OilersNation that the Oilers will pick Seguin, giggling the whole way as they run to the podium.
ReplyDeleteIt's debateable whether Stu MacGregor has even made up his mind, with the OHL Playoffs and potentially the Memorial Cup still left to be played.
At least I hope.
Then again, you have Jim Matheson declaring the Oilers will be better off with Seguin than Hall because of the center position.
It will be an interesting next few months. I just hope Hall's play over the next month leaves no room for doubt.
Seems like someone is on the sudafed tonight and someone is eating lead paint chips.
ReplyDeleteKeep at it Riv - you're fighting the good fight, but I think you're about to be swept under by the huddled masses.
Keep at it Riv - you're fighting the good fight, but I think you're about to be swept under by the huddled masses.
ReplyDeleteWhy not throw you $0.02 in instead?
I'm not even a fan of Ribeiro, but RQ simply stating opinion as fact with vague numbers was a little thin.
He handled the toughs not too bad, probably had better help than 10 did though.
ReplyDelete*snicker* You think?
Did Ribeiro have a big dumb #22 on his left wing with a habit of holding his stick on the wrong end?
Brownlee has been doing draft stuff for a long time, folks. And he's been right a few times so if he's saying Seguin then we'd be wise to consider it.
ReplyDeleteJust saying.
I hope Windsor gets all the way to the Mem Cup finals so we can get an extended look at how he plays against the CHL's best.
ReplyDeleteAnd, shamelessly, so I have a reason to drive two hours to get plastered in Brandon. Toni Rajala, Milan Kytnar and Taylor Hall would be a pretty good reason to make the trip, IMO.
@Woodguy
ReplyDeleteIt's a type of conversation I've given up on at this point, at least here. The other side is going to run out selective numbers (and finding ANY set of continuous numbers that shows Riberio as a #1 center that "can shelter Gagner" is going to be MASSIVELY selective) to try an prove a point. Then they'll do the same to attempt to show Horcoff's worth or lack of worth.
It's a shitshow when the word Horcoff is mentioned, much worse than it was with Penner when I gave up talking about him to the hive.
I could probably write about it, but like the Penner piece, it will have an impact on those that think clearly and use more than their gut and confirmation bias to come to conclusions. But the rest - the ones that keep fighting the selected stats fight - will ignore it and go about their merry way espousing all kinds of falsehoods in the numbers.
Shit. I sound like Vic.
LT, on OilersNation, Brownlee was responding to the comment that Stauffer is saying Seguin.
ReplyDeleteBrownlee said ... if that's what Stauffer is saying, then book it. i.e. He's in the know, so he is probably right.
Regwald: Ah, okay. So Brownlee's not saying these are his contacts?
ReplyDeleteUnlike so many here I do not have a preference for either of the top two. Not sure why....... but 2-3 years out I have a distinct impression that one of the two of them is going to noticeably outstrip the other.
ReplyDeleteNo clue who it will be but and this is the scariest part---if it is the Magnificent Bastard making the pick, I suspect he will get it right. "Tambi" (patent pending) and Lowe......could blow absolutely anything
It was an interesting comment Tambellini made in that, "Part of the evaluation process will be which player can better handle the pressure of being number 1 overall"
ReplyDeleteI think Seguin is the better choice. However, it is a little different when you know the Oilers have to choose (and Hall being the safer bet).
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers will make a good choice (the problem imo with this organization isn't drafting, it's development) at number one and both of these guys will have fine careers.
I'm pretty happy the Oilers will be giving the Magnificent Bastard the freedom to make the right pick (this based on Tambellini's stammering on PPV not long ago).
LT, here's exactly what Brownlee has had to say today.
ReplyDeleteExhibit A:
"Archaeologuy wrote:
If the rumblings from RB and Stauffer are correct, I'd start warming up to Seguin if I were you.
Brownlee responds:
Rumblings?
I'd suggest that unless Seguin runs away to join the circus as the bearded lady or slips in the shower and dislocates his spine between now and draft day, he's the guy."
Exhibit B:
"Brownlee wrote:
That was a month ago, March 14, and I wrote:
"Assuming the NHL draft lottery doesn't go sideways, the Oilers keep the No. 1 pick in June and they select Taylor Hall -- I believe he's the guy they want just a tick ahead of centre Tyler Seguin -- Lowe should tell equipment man Lyle Kulchisky to pull his No. 4 jersey out of mothballs."
Then, on March 31, I wrote: "I wrote not long ago I believed the Oilers were leaning toward Hall, a dynamic left winger who is less than three months older than Seguin, but has one full OHL season more on his resume. If the Oilers want the player who is most NHL ready now -- which doesn't preclude him from staying a tick ahead of Seguin five or seven years down the road -- then he's the guy. "But, if MacGregor and the Oilers scouting staff think Seguin, who fits an obvious need at centre, projects better beyond the next couple of training camps when, successful rebuild willing, this franchise is on the upswing, well, duh, he's the guy."
A case for both, or fence-sitting if you prefer, but that "tick" I talked about a month ago no longer exists, based on what I've been able to gather. I'm saying Seguin today and I won't be flip-flopping between now and draft day."
-----
On my reading it seems that Brownlee is tipping his hat toward Seguin.
jon k: Well, if we have confirmation that both Stauffer and Brownlee are saying Seguin (and it sounds like it based on reading what you've posted) then the smart money is on Seguin.
ReplyDeleteFun stuff.
What I wouldn't give for a Gare Joyce live-blog in the Oilers war-room.
ReplyDeleteQuotes from Stu MacGregor from a week ago
ReplyDeletehttp://www.torontosun.com/sports/hockey/2010/04/07/13500321.html
“Central Scouting's choices are always very interesting. They can make you rethink and have another look at where you have a player positioned. In many ways Central Scouting is a little bit more pure because they deal with only what you see on the ice and have no part of a team's particular need,” said McGregor.
McGregor, as head scout, makes the final pick.
While there's been the suggestion that this is one year you might want to lose the lottery and select second because the two players are so close that it takes you off the hook, McGregor says he'll be celebrating Tuesday if the Oilers, with their 48.2% odds, win the first pick.
“They are both pretty special guys. And either way having the unbelievable experience our scouting staff has had this year to dig very deep in evaluating these two players is only going to make us better. I'd love to have the opportunity to make that pick.”
McGregor said there's plenty to debate about but McGuire had the right idea about projecting down the road.
“We've all seen players who had great breakout years but don't make the same impact down the road. The difference is what that player is going to become four, five and six years from now.”
Does he know who it would be if he picked today?
“I have a good feeling,” he said.
just found out! I'm so stokeD! woooooooooo
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with Seguin. He seems like a high-character, franchise centre. (like Toews vs. Kane?)
ReplyDeleteRaised on HF, a point that we selected Gagner (center) over Voracek (winger). It's probably fair to state that Voracek had the upper edge at the moment.
ReplyDeleteI just do not subscribe to the theory of drafting for need. Needs change quickly (look no further than the 'puck moving defencemen' saga)
It killed us many times in the past (Parise/Pouliot), and to a much lesser extent (Voracek/Gagner). Kevin Lowe was also stating before 2007 draft on how the Oilers might use their 15th overall pick on a defenceman to fill the pipeline with a defensive prospect. Makes my blood boil.
Bob McKenzie indicated on TSN that the Oilers aren't sure at this point on who to select.
I hope it's Hall.
I prefer Seguin but it is so close. It is absurd that some people are panicking that their guy might not be the one chosen.
ReplyDeleteTambellini will calmly assess the situation, and has been doing so for a very long time.
ReplyDeleteAnd we can all rest assured that when he climbs the podium, it will be to continue to assess the situation...
Funny how Hall is considered the "pure goal scorer" but Seguin has more goals. Can Hall physically dominate at the next level the way that he has in the OHL? I don't think there's much evidence that Seguin will be a better player than Hall - but the reverse is also true of Hall over Seguin.
ReplyDeleteAnybody notice something different?
If it's a dead heat between Hall and Seguin in terms of skill (or is it?) I think it comes down to attitude. Which player brings the same kind of punch to the locker room? I think they described Hall as fearless and Seguin as being cerebral.
These characteristics are not mutually exclusive though.
See Sam Gagner.
http://www.torontosun.com/sports/hockey/2010/04/13/13575096.html
Apparently Seguin got bigger and he's 186 pounds now.
MacGregor made the projecting comment before. His words (loosely quoted) went like 'people need to understand that we need to project whos going to be the better pro'
ReplyDeleteBy adding 'people need to understand' made me think he has his sights on Seguin. Hall is the consensus fan favourite, and will get results quicker than Seguin IMO.
If MacGregors resolve on Tyler being the better pick is strong enough to weather a few years of looking stupid, then how can you argue with that?
PJO, in both of those cases (Parise/Pouliot and Gagner/Voracek), there was very little seperating them at the time.
ReplyDeleteGagner/Voracek was basically seen as a dead heat (yes there were those who preferred one over the other, but overall it was pretty close).
In that case, picking for need is exactly what you want to do.
If you view 2 guys as equal (and project them to be equal down the road), why wouldn't you draft for need?