- Boxcars: 27gp, 0-6-6
- Shots: 25
- Plus Minus: +2
- Corsi (Rel): 14.7 (2nd among F, DNQ)
- GF/GA ON: 16-14
- 5x5/60: 1.54 (5th among F's, DNQ)
- 5x4/60: nil
- Quality of Competition: 12th toughest among F's
- Quality of Teammates: 11th best among F's
- FO %: 33.3% in 21 FO's
- Offensive Zone Start FO %: 52.7% (easiest among F's, DNQ)
- Cap Hit: $600,000 (UFA)
- What do these numbers tell us? Not a lot. He played with good linemates (despite the qual/qual #'s) for many of the 27 games but there's not enough here to draw grand conclusions. Excellent Corsi, passable 5x5/60 and the cap hit was on the way to making this a value contract before injury.
- How could these numbers be better? He needed to get more at-bats in order to establish himself as an Oiler, and he needed to score a goal or two. Other than that, Stone exceeded expectations.
- Where is he with the injury? Stone's season was lost to a knee injury but from the sounds of things the Oilers should be able to count on him in the fall.
- What about foot speed? Well it wasn't a strength before the injury so I don't know that it'll have a big impact on his game.
- Was he better than Jacques? Oh God yes. Stone actually looked like a player who could fill a vital role before the injury (top 6 forward with size and grit) and one hopes the Oilers continue the experiment. Well priced top 6 forwards are gold.
- Seriously, you think that much of him? With the understanding that he didn't get enough time to show if he can do the job, yes. The Oilers had a horrible year but that doesn't mean they have to flush everything. They look to be onto something with Ryan Stone, I'd like to see more of him.
- How important is Stone to the organization? It is up in the air. He could be among the top 6 forwards while making 1M or less. THAT has exceptional value. Of course, the Oilers have to sign him and the club has allowed some players right in this area to fall through the cracks over the last few seasons (Glencross being the obvious example).
Projected Role in 2009-10: In the mix for top 6F on the Edmonton Oilers
Wow, you think top sixer possibly, eh?
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with anything to be honest. Top nine. Fourth line. Whatever he can give us. Kid can play for sure and how many guys can we say that about in this mess.
A top six forward......without 1 goal in 26 games ???? I don't know about that one. I did like his energy but if they were looking for a player to replace Glencross why didn't they just keep Glencross! A bird in the hand.............More K-Lowe wisdom to mull over!
ReplyDeleteA top six forward......without 1 goal in 26 games ???? I don't know about that one. I did like his energy but if they were looking for a player to replace Glencross why didn't they just keep Glencross! A bird in the hand.............More K-Lowe wisdom to mull over!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletei think he's expendable. but....having said that, i do believe the Oilers MIGHT take a chance with him and bring him back to see what he can do. he and Ryan Jones will probably get longer looks next season. wasn't as impressed with Stone as i was with Jones.
ReplyDeleteRyan Stone = career AHLer. Very occasional cups of coffee in the bigs.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers are going to need to have some players who can score a little at the bottom end of the lineup, and can add an element of toughness.
Love this guy. He does everything well enough to be very useful on a team like Edmonton. He can be top six material if you need a thumper out there, but he's more ideally suited for second six minutes running cover for a center that needs to learn the game.
ReplyDeleteHe was one of five Oilers with a positive scoring chance differential this season. No matter the minutes, that's impressive on this team.
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ReplyDeleteHe generated a lot of his goodness in favorable circumstances so if he were a top six forward it would be a Hall-Gagner-Stone slaughter the weak type situation, but there's nothing at all wrong with that if you can get him signed for 600K or something. The guy is definitely quality for the fourth line and should be signable for fourth line dollars -- anything after that is gravy.
ReplyDeleteRe: his offensive stats; Maybe he's Patrick O'Sullivan and can't score, but his line was outshooting when he was out there and that's something. He doesn't seem to generate many shots so I'm not sure he's going to be a 20 goal scorer anytime soon, but I'm guessing it was simply bad luck that he didn't pot anything and that plays to our favor. This guy has all the indicators of being someone who can get signed for value and it should be a no-brainer that he's a cheap Oiler in the fall.
Which means we're going to fuck it up and send him to Dallas while we chase Kovalchuk.
@quain...i don't think if they don't bring him back that they will have "fucked it up". it's hard to read this guy....is he an NHLer? or a career AHLer like DangerMan said? he has his good points, he's got good size, plays hard and drops the gloves when need be. bad points may be that he can't score points, based on what we have seen this past year. i'm really kind of on the fence with Stone, so i'll leave it up to the oilers to decide.
ReplyDeleteDid they kill this kid's year (and, potentially, his future) by rushing him back too soon from his knee surgery? Wouldn't surprise me, sadly...
ReplyDeleteIs being on the ice when teammates take shots an actual skill?
ReplyDeleteTo paraphrase Dean Wormer: "Slow and scoreless is no way to go through life, son."
Dug:
ReplyDeleteI think we can safely say the kid can do something at the NHL level. I don't think something is 20 goal scorer or maybe even 10 goal scorer, but he can be a useful piece if only maxing out on the fourth line.
The thing is, you'd pay $600K-700K for Ryan Stone to play 10th to 14th forward minutes because that's what you pay those guys and he has proven at least as good as them. So, if nothing else, you're going to get market value on his contract and at near league minimum dollars you can't ask for much more. However, if this kid achieves any of his possible upside? That's a huge value because you could possibly be paying a guy $700K to play real minutes.
This is a mini-Glencross moment. I doubt he has the upside Glencross does, but he does have a ton of it and you can lock him in at a rate that, if none of that upside pans out, you're still getting full value. Signing him is a near-zero risk move with tons to gain.
One thing to remember about Stone is that his numbers benefit from being on the team when the team was playing well and injured when the team sucked, so his stats may be positively skewed relative to those who played the whole season.
ReplyDeleteThe team was 11-14-2 with him in the lineup and 15-32-6 when he was not in the lineup.
On the other hand, maybe he was the difference¡
I remember him the odd time on the pk but can't remember whether he seemed effective or not. Does anybody recall if he can kill penalties?
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of being too simple about this:
ReplyDeleteEthan Moreau, 6.02 LW Age 34
Ryan Stone, 6.02, LW, Age 24
Seems pretty obvious how buddy slots into the lineup next year. How the hell many LW do we have in front of him? After Penner it's pretty much tumbleweeds down the port side.
Dennis missed a few games of chances so I'm missing about 3 minutes of his 20 total minutes on the PK (oh no! small sample size becomes smaller!), but:
ReplyDeleteStone - 16:22 - 2/7 - (18.3)
In his 16:22 of total PK time, he had a net scoring chance ratio of (18.3) per 60. My data is a bit out of date for this, but the best forward playing real minutes was Shawn Horcoff with (35.4).
The sample size here is so small that it's impossible to draw any real conclusion, but I figured I'd provide it.
Only reason he's in the top 6 conversation is because this is the woeful Oilers we're talking about.
ReplyDeleteA Top 6 Forward Ryan Stone is not.
Sad thing is, he doesn't have the speed to forecheck like a demon bottom sixer.
He's useful, don't get me wrong, and can be had for cheap, but he doesn't add a helluva lot. Smart positionally, has size and grit, and can take a pass... 2nd platoon utility infielder with zero bat.
At the risk of being too simple about this:
ReplyDeleteEthan Moreau, 6.02 LW Age 34
Ryan Stone, 6.02, LW, Age 24
Seems pretty obvious how buddy slots into the lineup next year.
Are you saying that Ryan Stone is going to be our Captain and take way too many offensive zone penalties next year?
quain said...
ReplyDeleteThe sample size here is so small that it's impossible to draw any real conclusion, but I figured I'd provide it.
These are the words that Bruce lives by.
Top six is probably bonkers. A good solid bottom sixer cashing cheques less than seven figures is awfully useful.
With Pouliot (or another 4th line centre) flanked by Stortini and Stone, the Oil might finally have the team tough line that can be thrown out to harass and intimidate the other team while energising the rest of their team. Especially if the centre can take FO and be defensively responsible. This is one line I could be excited about next year.
ReplyDeletethat's IF the Oilers actually bring back Pouliot, Bar Qu.
ReplyDeleteThese are the words that Bruce lives by.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I figure I muddied up the water just by including, but goddammit, I actually bothered to look so that work wasn't going to waste!
And, hell, I like Stone so I feel okay being underhanded in my promotion of him.
Good point spOILer - Ryan Stone being in the top 6 is more a reflection (indictment) of forward corps - which is just awful right now.
ReplyDeleteNot saying that he does not have a role/value, but I'd be much happier if he were bottom 6. And this is probably where the other Ryan (Jones) winds up next year.
So my question is this: if small smaple size is all you got, do you mention it and acknowledge that it's a small sample, or do you throw it all out and get pilloried for just going by "seen him good"?
ReplyDeleteFunny thing is, I got excoriated earlier this year for using a "small sample size" that included a player's entire career!
So tell me, when is "no stats" better than "small sample size stats"?
With Pouliot (or another 4th line centre) flanked by Stortini and Stone, the Oil might finally have the team tough line that can be thrown out to harass and intimidate the other team while energising the rest of their team. Especially if the centre can take FO and be defensively responsible. This is one line I could be excited about next year.
ReplyDeleteI agree with this. Pouliot has the speed, aggressiveness and defensive chops to be a real good fit between a pair of grinding "energy" wingers.
The best fourth line Oilers had this past year for any stretch of games was when Stone and Nilsson came back from injury and lined up with Stortini on that five-game road winning streak. The trio went +5/-0 over that stretch, with Stortini actually being the one who played centre, taking draws and providing responsible defensive play. He and Stone clicked nicely, did the grunt work, and gave Nilsson a little space to work his magic.
Quinn was so pleased he promoted Nilsson and Stone to other lines when the Oilers returned home, and the team responded by winning 1 of its next 21 games.
Isn't 'saw him good' just small sample size for people who suck at math?
ReplyDelete"I watched him live and he rocked on the penalty kill!"
"He had a SCD of (18.3) in 16 minutes of penalty kill time!"
See, same thing. We're all going to hell now, which is really an eternity of Vic and Carl Gauss beating us over the head with Introduction to Statistics textbooks.
According to Dreger the Leafs have signed G Ben Scrivens from Cornell. That's a nice signing by them. He could have certainly helped our farm team.
ReplyDelete-----
Stone's certainly done enough in a short tryout to justify a good look up and down the lineup in training camp. I suspect he settles in as either an above-average 3rd liner or the grit on a balanced 2nd line. His results in a small sample size are certainly unsustainable in regards to corsi, but I think the same could also be said about his scoring. He had one or two goals called back by my recollection. I think there's potential for more scoring once he adapts to the difference between the NHL and AHL.
Also, Seguin named OHL Most Outstanding Player of the Year.
ReplyDeletehttp://ca.sports.yahoo.com/juniorhockey/news?slug=yhoo-seguinnamedohlsmostoutstand
Stone has zero career NHL goals.
ReplyDeleteThe guy will be lucky to grab a spot as the 13F
that's IF the Oilers actually bring back Pouliot, Bar Qu.
ReplyDeleteIf not Pouliot then another centre with similar skills(as I said). But I'm with Bruce, there is the nucleus of an outplaying, cheap 4th line with the likes of Pou, Stortini and Stone and you don't even have to look outside the org to find them. Perfect for a good 10minutes of EV play a night.
"According to Dreger the Leafs have signed G Ben Scrivens from Cornell. That's a nice signing by them. He could have certainly helped our farm team."
ReplyDeleteHow in the world does Tambellini manage to not sign one of the top free asset goalies on the market?
Rynnas or Scrivens could have been #1 by November. What are these agents thinking? Edmonton should be a prime destination.
Apparently when Tambellini said goaltending was the only place with no holes he meant it. Idiot.
Maybe if the Leafs sign every free agent goalie they'll find one who can play.
ReplyDeletewell i think i'm with you on this one, Bar Qu, i think this year that Pouliot has shown JUST enough to be brought back again next year. (35G 7G 7A). he was one of the ones i thought for sure would be gone after this year, and he still might be, and if so it wouldn't bother me, he's had plenty of chances and hasn't justified his 1st round selection. should be interesting to see if he's actually back next season.
ReplyDelete"Maybe if the Leafs sign every free agent goalie they'll find one who can play."
ReplyDeleteAnd maybe Tambellini will trade picks away for the ones that can't.
Free assets are overrated.
Wasting a late first/early second on a goalie in the draft seems more managements style.
Yeah, I know what you mean Dug. Injuries and too many years might end up nixing his career in Edmonton, but I'm not sure where the org could find a similar mix of skills (size, speed, hands and FO) for less in the UFA pool. Maybe as part of the Souray trade. Just seems like a lotta effort to get a guy they already have.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the equivalent of going into next season with the goalies we have?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking its a little like taking a road trip with your wife and kids in a 60's pick up that has 350k on it. No spare tire or cell phone for the Tambellini's either.
I wonder how it turns out.
Don't worry Trak, there is no way Khabi will go down for any significant time next season. This year was a fluke and in no way predictable. (insert bookie symbol here)
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure when the sarcasm symbol became the Bookie symbol, but I support the new nomenclature.
ReplyDeleteKhabi, JDD, and DD as the goaltending situation next season says one thing to me, 48% chance at drafting Adam Larsson. Let the good times roll!
Free assets are overrated.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Trak. It's not like Ferguson had any better luck trading draft picks and blue chip prospects for goalies. We know what studs Raycroft and Toskala turned into.
Ghosts of Oilers Past said...Did they kill this kid's year (and, potentially, his future) by rushing him back too soon from his knee surgery? Wouldn't surprise me, sadly...
ReplyDeleteDamn...let's fire the training staff! Oh, right.
I got no problem with free assets, I'm just a little surprised to see Burke snap up no fewer than three fairly prominent ones over the past 12 months. Don't these guys know they're gonna wind up competing with each other for opportunity and ice time?
ReplyDeleteYou're 100% right about Raycroft and Toskala. Hell, the blue chipper The Other JFJ traded to acquire those stiffs was a goalie. All that guy has done this year is lead the league in both individual Sv% and GAA, then beat the Vezina Trophy favourite's team in the first round of the playoffs. So far.
Which goes to show that maybe sometimes you're better off to trust your scouts and wait for your own kid to develop than to panic and bring in "proven" goaltending from elsewhere.
bruce, the funny thing there is the oil did both last year and both were epic failures...
ReplyDeleteThis whole season was an Epic Fail.
ReplyDeleteSo Bruce, you are still of mind that JDD or DD could be the man? Personally, I am not that convinced.
ReplyDeleteJFJ's great white whale was goaltending. Unfortunately he kept chasing the wrong ones and giving up too much to get them.
ReplyDeleteA blue chip all world goalie prospect in Rask who was the hero and best player of the WJC despite NOT winning the gold. Traded for a goalie that had one good season and then was so bad that he became a 3rd string goalie unable to beat out a backup and career AHLer for ice-time. (Jim Carrey anyone?)
1st, 2nd, 3rd for a career backup in Toskala and taking on dead weight and salary in Bell.
JFJ drafted okay, too bad he couldn't make a trade worth shit. Could have easily signed a decent goal on the FA market.
Who here honestly believes Nikolai Khabibulin is going to play more than 40 games next year? He's had 1 good season since the lockout and it was the season when he only played 42 games. He's only had one 30 win season in the last 12 years.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is he doesn't reach 20 wins for this club in any of the 3 seasons left on his contract.
It doesn't matter though because we have Devan "poor mans Alex Auld" Dubnyk being groomed for the #2.
Its not like we need goaltending help at the AHL level either.
James Reimer (0.925s), Rynnas and Scrivens will share the load with the Marlies but luckily Tambellini can match with Bryan Pitton (0.857sv%) or Aaron Sorochan (0.871 sv%).
Eberle named WHL Player of the Year
ReplyDeleteHoorah!
Where was all this commentary 2 weeks ago when I asked whether Scrivens was a good goalie that Tambellini should target?! ;)
ReplyDeleteWith a weak goal pipeline, an Edmonton kid and an ex teamate of Riley Nash there were a few good reasons to make a play.
Or did I just miss the responses in the old thread? I guess the answer to my original question will come in a Marlies uniform.
Nelson, despite our collected sense of self-importance, I don't know if Tambellini weights the opinions on this blog heavily in his decision making processes. I mean, obviously he is aware of what we suggest...
ReplyDeleteI did think Scrivens seemed like a good player to chase, based on what you said, if that is worth anything.
George: I'm not convinced, no, but I do hold out hope for Dubnyk. His stats were shit, but he was in a pretty tough situation playing behind the likes of Chorney, Strudwick, O'Sullivan and The Other Other JFJ. He did close very strongly, posting 4-2-0, 2.44, .928 over his last 6. (Yeah, it's a small sample size, I should probably be objurgated for even mentioning it. :)
ReplyDeleteStats aside, I did see DD better than JDD; he seemed way calmer and his fundmentals appeared way sounder. There's also the small matter of what happened in SF after he left, which was in significant part due to the sheer badness of his replacements, but DD looked mighty good in comparison to those guys for whatever that's worth.
Traktor said...
ReplyDeleteWhat is the equivalent of going into next season with the goalies we have?
Well, the best way to suck your way to a high draft pick is to submarine your team's efforts with horrible goaltending. So maybe we're dealing with evil geniuses here?
OK, maybe not.
How many lottery picks do we need to follow these magical teams?
ReplyDelete4?
The Khabibulin contract makes sense!!!
I'd like to think Khabbi is at least an '80s sports car with 350k rather than a '60s pick-up.
ReplyDeleteNot an awesome '80s sports car that talks or travels through time, but at least one with a rockin paint job.
Bruce - I am in the process of forming up the committee to objurgate you....
ReplyDeleteThis whole season was an Epic Fail.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers won an entire 5 game road trip - something Gretzy and the boys never managed to do, so I don't see how you could call this team a failure. So in that regard, they were better than any of the 1980's Oilers teams.
Those were some of the best teams in NHL history. So, logically this makes the 2009-10 one of the best teams in the history of the NHL. We just failed to notice!
commonfan13 said...
ReplyDeleteNot an awesome '80s sports car that talks or travels through time, but at least one with a rockin paint job.
...and a breathalyzer on the steering column.
I'm really enjoying the Khabibulin signing at this point. It's rare that a bad signing blows up as catastrophically as this one. It's fascinating to watch.
So, logically this makes the 2009-10 one of the best teams in the history of the NHL. We just failed to notice!
ReplyDeleteMeh, I think the 5-game road winning streak in 1990 that included Game 4 and 6 of the Campbell Conference Finals and Games 1, 2, and 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals in Chicago Stadium and Boston Garden respectively, was the more impressive feat. :| Granted, that wasn't a single trip, so you can put the 2009-10 team on a pedestal if you like.
PS Bookie: I used to think I was the optimistic one, but you are the champ.
I hold out hope for Dubnyk, but now that SOB Lou has admitted that Brodeur needs a back up who plays 30 games, I have a feeling he'll demand DD be part of the Souray package.
ReplyDeleteIn return the Oilers will get something like Jay Pandolfo and a 2nd.
What about Sergei Bobrovsky?
ReplyDeleteHe's only 21 and hasn't been drafted. 6'1 and currently has no contract.
Played in the 07/08 U20 and posted 2.46 .919sv% in 6 games.
Bobrovsky's last two years in the KHL:
08/09: 32 games 2.49 .927
09/10: 25 games 2.72 .919
Or what about Ilya Proskuryakov
23 years old and is another top KHL goalie without a contract.
He won the KHL rookie of the year in 2008/2009 and followed it up with another nice season: 32 games 1.92 .927
My guess is Tambellini will go the safe route and sign a goalie with no real upside like Jason Labarbera and we'll waste a development season on a stopgap.
My guess is that Lou somehow gets Carey Price for 30cents and Price becomes the new Brodeur.
ReplyDeleteNelson88 said: "Where was all this commentary 2 weeks ago when I asked whether Scrivens was a good goalie that Tambellini should target?! ;)"
ReplyDeleteDon't sweat it. Oiler fans are so used to irrationality that when a good idea or some logic comes down the commentary pipeline, it just goes whoosh through their Corsi filters.
I call douche. Scrivens has been on the radar of quite a few fans who follow the Oilers' prospects. He's the star goalie for Riley Nash's Cornell team.
ReplyDeletei'm really kind of on the fence with Stone, so i'll leave it up to the oilers to decide.
ReplyDeleteThat's very gracious of you.
^^^^so that bothers you steve?
ReplyDelete