Omark is yet another undersized skill player with quick hands and high creatitvity with the puck. The Oilers have been developing these players 6-at-a-time for a few years now and boast a plethora on the major league team at this time. There is some evidence to suggest Omark's timing (in signing now) is very good and in this way the Swede is not at all similar to Rob Schremp (who kept getting passed by small skill guys every fall until the Islanders plucked him off waivers).
There are several reasons why I think Omark has good timing. First, the club has had an opportunity to evaluate all of the skill kids who were holding back Schremp. Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Brule, O'Sullivan and a few others have had their 500 at-bats (or more) with the big club and shown what they can do in all areas. A guess would have Gagner and Brule (along with the veteran Comrie) as likely to return, and Nilsson, Cogliano and O'Sullivan to be shown the door. Eberle and Omark will be looking to make the big club, perhaps vying for the same roster spot.
Second, the organization appears to have lost its taste for bringing kids straight from junior and college to the show. A quick look at 2007 fall tells us that Sam Gagner (18-year old junior) and Andrew Cogliano (20-year old NCAA) were elevated for reasons other than development and both players may have suffered because of it. Certainly the Oilers will be forced into an earlier "big payday" for Gagner because he started burning his NHL seasons at age 18 (instead of 20) and Cogliano has been running in place for some time now. 2007-08 was also Tom Gilbert's rookie season, but he was 24 as a rookie and had plenty of college experience (plus one full year pro).
If the Oilers were to follow the 2007 template, then we'd be seeing Paarjavi-Svensson, Hall/Seguin and Eberle all break camp with the big club this fall. That could still happen (these are the Oilers) but players like Omark and Vande Velde make it less likely.
Omark has been tracking very well as an offensive player for several years now. Here are his Desjardins' NHL equivalencies:
- (Age 19) 82gp, 10-12-22 (.268)
- (Age 20) 82gp, 13-23-36 (.439)
- (Age 21) 82gp, 21-29-50 (.610)
- (Age 22) 82gp, 20-15-35 (.427)
Based on the numbers and the scouting report, he's earned it.
Would it be fair to assume that Omark's role on those teams was closer than most prospects to what he would be asked to do in the NHL, so his equivilancy numbers are maybe more accurate than, say, a top-flight junior prospect?
ReplyDeletejesse: I'm not sure that is the case, only because it is extremely unlikely Omark will play on the top 2 lines for much of the season.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, injuries will give opportunity and his last two seasons (one in the SEL, one in the KHL) predict 20 goals in a complete season and that certainly has value.
We need to see if he cherry picks, how the coaches react to him and vice versa and how well he'll play should Omark get sent to the minors.
I'm glad the Oilers were willing to come together on a deal that works for both sides.
ReplyDeleteA 2 year deal with the potential for being a value contract with RFA rights at the end of it for the Oilers, and an out clause after one year if he is not happy with his situation, and the max $$$ for Omark.
I wonder who did the contract for the Oilers?
It doesn't sound like the my-way-r-the-highway Pendergrast stuff that we have heard before.
I am very encouraged that there will actual competition for NHL spots. Earning a spot as opposed to having it given to a player should cause significant differences in attitude among some players.
Like my Dad always said, the second you give somebody something, they justify in their mind that they have earned it.
So be very careful about what you give away, it can be harmful.
On a totally unrelated note, with Dustin Penner scoring his 30th and 31st goals last night, he becomes the first player to score 30 in an Oilers Uniform since Ryan Smyth battled for 36 in 05-06.
ReplyDeleteThe last player to do so before Smyth? Some guy named Mike Comrie got 33 in 01-02.
A decade of suck and so little to show for it.
Jordan, Smyth had 31 in an Oiler uniform before he was traded in 06/07. He ended up with 36 that year. In 05/06 he also had 36. Smyth also notched 31 in 00/01 and 39 in 96/97.
ReplyDeleteI'm absolutely on board with bringing in Omark. Even if he's Nilsson v. 2 he's less than half the price.
ReplyDeleteOr if it's POS's spot he steals, we save over $2,000,000.
Spend that money on the third line. Please.
On a tangential note, anyone worried that Ethan Moreau is playing his way back onto the 2010-2011 roster?
I'm kind of surprised that The Waffle King is actually going to show up at camp this year, but it's a pleasant surprise. Here's hoping Leenus has something extra that these other little guys have yet to show.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping 18s trade value is being inflated. I also hope to win the lottery this week.
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping Leenus has something extra that these other little guys have yet to show.
ReplyDeleteI really hope he is one of those guys with a burning desire to succeed and prove others wrong. Those types usually have a good work ethic.
Work ethic is one of the biggest problems on this team, and I like the moves Tambelleni is making to change that.
Adding competition, real competition for jobs is going to be a very good thing for the Oilers.
The guys who don't really have to compete for jobs, (83,27,10,77,6) are not the problem on this team, so it will be nice to see some competition to round out the roster instead of players getting spot by default.
@Schitzo
ReplyDeleteMoreau has looked 10 years younger as of late...hustling...hitting...not taking dumbass penalties...I wonder if not getting dealt at the deadline (because nobody wanted him) was a wake up call or something along those lines?
I'm sure a few teams are kicking themselves for not returning Tambo's call regarding "Moreau for a 7th rounder" after the last few weeks.
At the very least, I hope his inspired play to close out the season makes it easier to deal him this summer....PLEASE GOD, LET IT BE!!!!
Matty floating Ribeiro for Souray in the summer.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Trade+best+solve+goalie+dilemma/2768049/story.html
PDO,
ReplyDeleteHe floated the same trade around December.
I then saw the same rumor on the fourth period, where it was speculated that Niewy didn't think it was enough for Ribero.
PDO, I beleive that trade idea was fr Matty's More Hockey World this past Sunday. Matheson also noted that the Stars would look to trade Richards instead if they can't sign him to a lower cap hit.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy,
ReplyDeleteJones, in this morning's article, estimated that half the roster was guilty of a poor work ethic and a disinterest in winning, including the mid-season Penner.
Horcoff's work ethic in practice is legendary, but if other leaders like Souray, Moreau and Penner are slacking, most of the rest of the roster is going to be slacking too.
WG, agreed he has floated that idea in the past. Personally I wouldn't make that trade from our end--it would likely take more than Souray because of the age difference, and I'm not a big fan of Ribeiro.
ReplyDeleteRibeiro just makes no sense from an Oiler POV... and his pact has another year on it than Souray's.
ReplyDeleteRichards would be damn interesting if there was a way to sign him long-term though.
Ribeiro for Souray is about the worst possible scenario.
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine having 10.5 million dollars tied up in Horcoff and Ribeiro for a minimum of 3 more years?
Throw in Gagner's 5 year deal and we're easily the softest team in the league down the middle for the foreseeable future.
"The guys who don't really have to compete for jobs, (83,27,10,77,6) are not the problem on this team, so it will be nice to see some competition to round out the roster instead of players getting spot by default."
ReplyDeleteOne of these players is not like the others.
Just say no to Ribeiro
ReplyDeleteTraktor,
ReplyDeleteDo tell.
10 doesn't hard enough for you either?
I thought you just had a problem with the contract for the guy who gets by far the hardest ice time with meh help.
@jonnyshaka
ReplyDelete"Moreau has looked 10 years younger as of late...hustling...hitting...not taking dumbass penalties...I wonder if not getting dealt at the deadline (because nobody wanted him) was a wake up call or something along those lines?"
I suspect that it may have something to do with what Lowetide has suggested in the past - his vision. Mid season Moreau has removed his visor and I wonder if his improvement is linked to that.
I suspect that it may have something to do with what Lowetide has suggested in the past - his vision. Mid season Moreau has removed his visor and I wonder if his improvement is linked to that.
ReplyDeleteWell, there are a number of point per game players in the league with a visor, so the visor excuse does not seem that logical.
Rather, I think the guy realizes that this could be the end of his career if the Oilers buy him out. Essentially, the comfort zone is gone.
Horcoff should have to fight for a role on the club just like everyone else after the season he has had.
ReplyDeleteSure he plays tough minutes but the players playing against him are playing easy minutes.
One of these players is not like the others
ReplyDelete83 is a Eurowussy?
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteI agree that 10 needs to compete for a job, my point was that he is never short on compete.
Ask the Pisscutter twins how they like playing against him.
http://www.tv4play.se/sport/hockeyka...eoId=1.1579039
ReplyDeleteIn Swedish...
The interview is from April 2nd - before the Oilers contract was made public.
Going to Russia was the best decision he's ever made... didn't want to go into numbers, but let slip that his take-home in the KHL was about four times what the Oilers offered... In his mind, the Oilers didn't want him over, but felt obliged to offer a contract... Signed a 1+1 deal in the KHL from the beginning, never intended staying more than a year... very disappointed at the attendance figures in the KHL... food in Russia was horrible quality... first five games in the KHL was watch-and-learn, then he felt comfortable... Became a better hockey player, specifically his shooting is better... Dynamo Moscow wanted to keep him... Hinted, without saying outright, that it was NHL or back to Europe (not at all sure if he was joking; maybe a native speaker can clarify).
The journalists began dumping on the Oilers (dead-last in the league, etc.), but Omark sees it as an opportunity for him. Does not follow NHL at all, though.
Peter (Engineer)
I think you guys are just being blinded by Moreau's sudden ability to make shots go in, in contrast to his previous ability to not have shots go in.
ReplyDeleteChances For/Against - % Favorable
After March 3rd: 16/51 - 23.9%
Before March 3rd: 159/254 - 38.5%
And, since some of that pre-trade deadline ice time was easier fourth line time, let's do the same with SCF/SCA only when he's with Horcoff:
After March 3rd: 15/44 - 25.4%
Before March 3rd: 45/86 - 34.4%
And then, because I hate Pat Quinn, let's see chances for Horcoff when he's with Comrie!
Total: 50/46 - 52.1%
My God! I've got an idea! Let's press box Comrie and play Moreau!!!
I hope he chokes on a prune.
Quinn on Stauffer's show right now.
ReplyDeleteAsked about ADD and DD going forward.
Said its all up in the air, but spent 85% of the time talking about DD.
Mike Ribeiro is a good player in the right circumstances. He had an excellent year at ES last season and at this point certainly represents a veteran natural centre.
ReplyDeleteIf I have to choose between Souray and Ribeiro moving forward at this point, I think long and hard before I say no.
For example, I actually think that Ribeiro might actually be a very good centre for Hall in a sheltered minutes role. However if we end up with Seguin Ribeiro becomes redundant.
Dreger on Oilers lunch now discussing his comments about the Oilers trading into the top 10 at this draft.
ReplyDeleteAlright, I went to the trouble of calculating and colouring all of this data, so it's getting posted:
ReplyDeleteHere!
It's a matrix of percentage of scoring chance events that are positive based on forward pairings. Green is >.500, salmon is <.500. Many of those numbers are small samples so don't think Pouliot-Hemsky are an example of the worst chemistry in history.
Sure he plays tough minutes but the players playing against him are playing easy minutes.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely true. But it's true because the other teams best players are playing against JFJ, POS, Moreau, Nilsson and every other anchor Quinn could put on Horcoff's line. I'm willing to submit only the top 30 or so forwards in the league could have done at all better than Horcoff in that same position. Perhaps many forwards would've got more points than Horcoff in the same postition, but they would've done even worse GAON/60.
Of course, Horcoff has had a bad year, partly injury driven over the middle of the season. But his poor boxcars and the bad plus minus are heavily driven by the fact that he's playing the league's best without Penner or Hemsky or anyone else who can cut it.
After Hemsky went down, Quinn decided to pair Penner with Gagner, Cogliano, Brule, etc. and run that line out against weaker opposition. With Hemsky out, and the rest of the team proven to be soft minute munchers, we only had one player left for the hard minutes and he had to play them with horrid linemates. (And without a true shutdown D, a la Pronger)
That's the story of the season for the Oilers and it's the story of why Horcoff's numbers are so bad. You can't run JFJ-Horcoff-Nilsson against the Sedin's and expect anything else to happen except losses and big minuses for that line. And the minuses don't show Horcoff can't outplay tough competetion. They only show that no player can outplay tough competetion short handed. (Which is obvious)
Indeed, we have two seasons of strong play from Horcoff. We have one excellent playoof run. That means we know who he is and what he provides. This is a large sample size, where he played with a variety of players, and suceeded.
So this idea that he has to play for his spot is totally assinine.
Anyway, Traktor knows all of this and is pretending to ignore the context to make a point. I'd hoped we were over that.
Quain,
ReplyDeleteAwesome work.
12 shows up pretty well on that grid.
I'm interested in seeing Coachpb's defence of 12 on C&B.
32 looks amazing for a guy who had 6 pts over 27 games.
27 and 83 obviously bring it.
13,67,18,19,22 all make me shudder, and 78 doesn't show well here either.
Interesting stuff, and chance of posting the TOI for the grid?
Kris, the guy compared himself to Jesus. You're probably giving him too much credit.
ReplyDeleteBut Kris,
ReplyDeleteHE'S MAKING $7 MILLION A YEAR FOR ELEVNTY BILLION YEARS HE BETTER BEAT EVERYONE IN THE LEAGUE ON HIS OWN.
It is all plot born in Kremlin, comrades.
ReplyDeletejon k - part of me is afraid that Tambellini isn't clear on the whole concept.
ReplyDelete'We'll give you our first rounder and Cogliano for your first rounder (seventh overall).'
Hangs up phone.
'Whoo hoo. We have a top ten pick! ... Wait, what do you mean?"
Yeah, please forgive me for the taking the bait or feeding the trolls or whatever.
ReplyDeleteAny chance that Kenta's kid survives the night of the long knives? I see more in store for him than for Patty O'Suck
ReplyDeleteDreger on Oilers lunch now discussing his comments about the Oilers trading into the top 10 at this draft.
ReplyDeleteAnything of any value or any sanity come from that appearance??
Rt40,
ReplyDeleteHis very favorable buy out number might be too tempting for Tambellini to resist.
PDO
ReplyDeleteAn argument can be made for Souray for Richards with no intention to resign him, especially if they go with Seguin.
You get Souray off the books and replace him with a veteran D at 1.5-5M per year, saving 3M+ the following year.
Richards becomes the top line centre so Horcoff, Gagner and Seguin all face lesser competition for the better part of a year, and less pressure to live up to his contact/make the leap/save the franchise respectively.
Assuming the Oil aren't contenders, Richards would be the most attractive playoff rental at the deadline, so you can turn him into a bluechip prospect and and first round pick.
I think I'd rather have a first round pick, a prospect, 3M cap space and a year worth of breathing room for Horcoff to regain his form and Gagner and Seguin to develop than another two years of Souray on the point.
Shane: Not really. Just generally:
ReplyDelete- Sort of talked about how some general managers are more aggressive in trying to move in or out of that range.
- Said that Hemsky is not being shopped, but he would have to be part of any deal to acquire another pick in the top 3.
- Suggested that if Edmonton is truly in for the full rebuild Tambellini should at least be considering whether Hemsky will be a part of that.
At least as far as I can recall. My initial excitement was dampened pretty quickly and the show was put into the background in a hurry.
Marc: All the indicators from Dallas are suggesting that they'll re-sign Richards, even if it means up to his current 7.8 million. Hence why they are going to jettison Ribeiro, with Jamie Benn looking more to be an ideal #2 centre every week.
ReplyDeleteRichards is enjoying a lot of success, at least personally, in Dallas. He's also the man there and not behind a guy like Vinny who he might resent for undeservedly getting the limelight. I think he re-signs.
jon k
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's likely they trade him, but they are operating with a self imposed cap of 45M and I'm not sure how they fit a 90 point player into that. I'm sure that they'd love to trade Ribeiro, but who is going to take him for another 3 years at 5M per without sending significant salary back?
"Woodguy said...
ReplyDeleteTraktor,
I agree that 10 needs to compete for a job, my point was that he is never short on compete.
Ask the Pisscutter twins how they like playing against him."
I'd say the Pisscutters like it just fine.
In 6 games against the Oilers, Daniel scored 4G,3A while Henrik had 3G and 4A.
Horcoff was -4 at EV in those games and was also on the ice for 3 PP goals against.
In those six games, Horcoff tallied one assist.
But don't let the facts stand in the way of a good story.
I don't think there will be any shortage of teams lining up to "help out" Dallas with their salary crunch. Off the top of my head I would think that Columbus would be interested, as well as New Jersey if they can't re-sign Kovalchuk. Both teams also have self-imposed caps but would be looking for another top 6 centre.
ReplyDeleteDallas has their fair share of money problems right now but I think they'll try very hard to keep Richards. If they lose Turco and Ribeiro's salaries in the offseason they'll be fine and not much worse off.
I assume this is the end of Nilsson's spell in Edmonton, and about time.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see what they do with the young goalies. Here is Dubnyk's SP since the March 03 game in against Chicago:
ReplyDeleteMar 03 Chicago L .894
Mar 11 MTL OL .846
Mar 13 TOR ND .947
Mar 15 CBJ L .857
Mar 19 Det W .939
Mar 21 SJS W ,964
Mar 28 STL L .935
Apr 2 DAL L .829
Apr 5 MIN W .962
That's a .905 SP over his last 9 games since the Oly break and a .926 over his last 5. Prior to that he last played in January and looked pretty uncomfortable in that first audition. So I think there is a bit of optimism going forward with this kid - particularly when looking at how the farm team simply disintegrated after he left. Of course it's all about consistency and longterm results - which this short period of good performance does not address at all - but he looks more stable and comfortable to me than JDD. A bit of promise with this guy though - we'll see.
As for JDD - .910 SP since the break and the last loss at PHX was typical - using athleticism to make up for technical issues. When it works it looks pretty spectacular to the layman - but it also makes him wildly inconsistent which is his MO. Of course the bad goals ended up creating the PHX loss anyway - that's what bad goals do - and when the dice are not rolling his way he looks abysmal.
I'd resign Dubnyk and put him in a position where he starts 25-30 games next season. I try to trade JDD since I just do not see that more starts will show us anything more than we already know - he's a backup. The only reason you give young goalies starts is to see if they can become top tier starters. if they can't - their replacement value is very very low and you move on to the next guy in the development pipeline until you hit a winner. You simply cannot fall in love with a prospect goalies and wait forever - they all don't pan out - and when they don't you simply move on.
Peter,
ReplyDeleteAre you originally from Jasper?
But don't let the facts stand in the way of a good story.
ReplyDeleteEspecially the cherry-picked facts that allow you to take potshots instead of making fair evaluations that take context and large sample sizes into account.
At this point, I expect you or Traktor to change the subject to Horcoff's contract.
Off-topic: my girlfriend's doing her teaching practicum right now, and in that capacity is teaching a number of major junior hockey players. Somebody has told her that one of these students is going to go high in the 2010 NHL draft. Only thing is that this player's a 17 year old defeseman whose team website lists him as 5'8". This suggests to me that, however good he is (and he's apparently one of the best skaters in his league), he's unlikely to have an NHL career and correspondingly unlikely to have an NHL career. My questions:
ReplyDelete1. Who are the shortest defesemen in recent NHL history? How often do defeseman under 5'10" play in the NHL? I note that MAB is listed as 5'10", and I'm not aware of many defensemen smaller than him.
2. Do any of the scouting agencies make their complete lists available for free online? Where can I find these?
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7317
ReplyDeleteThat should help you out Steve, I don't see any midget D going high on that list though.
DSF,
ReplyDeleteSo he's -4 on the worst team in the league against the highest scorer in the league, and he did this without Hemsky for the most part.
Thanks for making my point for me.
You can go back to the shallow end of the pool now.
@AsiaOil, Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteNot that I'm saying that JDD is much better than DD, but it seems that you're picking and choosing stats to make DD look better (i.e. last five games). And a whole lot of "seen him bad" remarks regarding JDD.
Apparently when JDD has a bad game, it's because he's a mediocre goalie. When JDD has a good game, it's because he's inconsistent and will revert to form. Why the difference compared to DD?
@Steve
ReplyDeleteI grew up playing with guy playing defense who could skate like the wind, see the ice like nobody else I had ever seen, and was under 6 feet. He was drafted in the 3rd round and after that season proceeded to lead his OHL team in scoring with over 120 points...20 points more than his next best teammate. Pretty solid junior player if you ask me.
While he did manage to play in over 450 NHL games, he never really caught on anywhere "fulltime" nor was he ever considered a "top 4" guy...all because he wasn't adept defensively nor did he have the size to make up for those shortcomings.
Long story short, the little guys need to be really smart and make sure they know how to limit offensive chances against them against the best players in the world. Easier said than done for the average sized defensemen...let alone a midget.
PDO: Thanks. As I suspected, he's not on that list (though there is a 5'8.5" defenseman ranked 201st).
ReplyDeletejohnnyshaka: "under 6 feet" is one thing, 5'8" is quite another - or so it seems to me.
Master Lok - JDD has a demonstrated record of being average at best and wildly inconsistant - that's not NHL starter material. DD hasn't proven much either but he's 2 years younger than JDD, a bit farther along in terms of development and potential upside at the same age, and doesn't have as many glaring technical issues. JDD's future is pretty clear - career backup, DDs is less clear and that's the only reason you keep him and ditch JDD who is replaceable very easily and at a very low price. IF DD does not develop significantly over the next 12-18 months then he's in the same car heading out of town and you move on to the next prospect.
ReplyDeleteBelated but what the heck,Happy Våffeldagen!
ReplyDeleteGrant:
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm Danish. I was on exchange in Hinton in 95/96, and at the U of A in the fall of '01.