In the thread below jon k passed along some information from
Robin Brownlee at ON. Comment #122 from Brownlee is especially revealing and there may be some evidence that the Oilers have already settled on Tyler Seguin. Bob Stauffer has implied a similar outcome on his Oilers Lunch radio show and based on connections I'd say this is a strong "tell" for Oilers fans.
Steve Tambellini hasn't tipped his hand, Kevin Lowe isn't saying and Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor doesn't do his interview for oilers.com for many weeks. However, we can connect some dots. PunjabiOil posted
a link last night that quotes MacGregor:
- Asked if he knew who he'd pick if the Oilers got the #1 overall pick, he said "I have a pretty good idea."
I have no idea if this is indeed correct, but if there were an extra hundred laying around and the bet was available, my money would be on Tyler Seguin to be the Oilers choice at number one at the entry draft.
If you don't reveal who you want, then Boston has more reason to offer something useful in return for certainty they can get the winger. If you say you want the centre, Boston is home and dry for free.
ReplyDeleteYou rarely see a trade to flip the 1st for the 2nd unless one player is clearly miles above the other.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I might see happening is a flip for the option to flip draft pick positions the following year but the Oilers aren't likely to win that. Otherwise a I don't see them getting anything more than a 7th.
Good.
ReplyDeleteLike Tencer says if we are going for Seguin, it may be a flip of picks that the Oilers won't do for less than the other first rounder
ReplyDeleteI'm saddened that Tampa has fired their GM, as I believe it kills my dream of #1 for Stamkos.
ReplyDeleteWould've been nice to just pop a 50-goal-scorer onto the team at the expense of a sap...
I think that it is important that we take a moment to consider what the lottery win means for us - as Lowetideospherians.
ReplyDeleteWith the Oilers winning the draft lottery, we will debate who we should pick from now until the draft. Probably about 15 posts by LT and 1000's of comments. After the draft we have years of debate. People will take one side or the other - often totally ignoring logic or historical context.
If we lost the draft - nothing....
bookie: 'tis true. I had a gigantic "Steve Kelly an example of Oilers bad development system" post ready and the rest of the player reviews but we would have gotten bogged down soon enough.
ReplyDeleteIt is kind of funny, now that the Oilers have the #1 overall pick it seems as though people are afraid the Oilers will take Seguin. Before the lottery, many seemed to think it was a good idea.
Passing on Hall might be a tough thing for Oiler fans to witness.
Charelli has expressed a desire to move up. So if Seguin is our man then ask for the Boston first rounder. Might settle for theirs and toronto's second round though.
ReplyDeleteuni, actually you see it more in situations where guys are close, but play different positions (i.e. the Rick Nash trade).
ReplyDeleteYou almost have to think Boston wants Hall. He's the goal scoring winger they lost when they "traded" Kessel.
If the Oilers want Seguin, they should be looking to trade down.
on the Team 1260 after the lottery last night they mentioned that Boston radio guys had called to discuss what the Oilers would want for the first overall pick since it seems Boston has their mind made up. They discussed that at least they could get Toronto's 2nd rd pick (or boston's 2nd rd pick) and the 2nd overall for the 1st overall. And wondered if the Oilers would take back a guy like Ryder for the 2nd overall and Boston's 1st round pick as well. Would anyone take ryder back in order to get another top 20 pick? Or would we have to send back some salary like Nilsson in order to make it more palatable (saves Boston $2 mill in cap space).
ReplyDeleteI wish we would have lost the lottery. Too much to think about and I already have a headache.
ReplyDeleteI would be surprised if anything happens with the first pick. I don't have enough faith in management to do something creative if the opportunity arose.
I should specify...something creative in the "good" sense of the word. NOT creative as in trading the first overall for Heatley.
I don't see Chiarelli doing it, but 2nd and 17th overall with Ryder for 1st overall is pretty damn fantastic.
ReplyDeleteRyder has an expiring contract so it's just one season. He'll likely get a chance at top gravy minutes since the team is so thin at forward. Best case he forces a rookie to earn a call-up and if he maintains 20 goal form or returns to 30 goal form they trade him at the deadline for a pick. Worse case bury him in the AHL if you have to and let Stu Mac giggle as he walks up to the draft podium.
If there's anyway they can pry a 3nd for a 2nd swap as well out of Boston then I'd be racing to the fax machine.
So their radio guys call our radio guys and ask each other what they'd give up for who....
ReplyDeleteHow does this have Anything to do with figuring out what the real gm's are thinking?
Halfwise is 3/4 correct - getting something for the flip depends on Boston believing you actually prefer Hall. That might be tough to sell at this point.
OT - How about a nice Evander Kane jersey, I need to get one of those. That punch should earn him a Lady Byng nomination.
Alice: just starting conversation. you may think it means nothing that radio guys are talking about it, but the reality is that if they are talking to management and it has come up, then it's a possibility.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oil can get anything extra and still get their guy, then they have to get it done.
If the Oilers want Seguin, they should be looking to trade down.
ReplyDeleteI think we should draft Hall, immediately trade him to Boston for the second pick and Boston's second round pick, and then draft Seguin.
That way we get the #1 and #2 overall draft picks plus Boston's second round pick. That is WAY BETTER than making the trade before the draft in which case we would only get the #2 overall and Boston's second round pick¡
"I don't see Chiarelli doing it, but 2nd and 17th overall with Ryder for 1st overall is pretty damn fantastic."
ReplyDeleteThis would be rather outstanding. I would hope to make that deal early however, then go shopping with Cogliano + 17 in my hand; or something to that effect.
Supposing Seguin makes the team, do you need someone to ride shotgun with him? I suppose Penner's a fairly obvious candidate unless we go grab a big vet.
Bookie,
ReplyDeleteWhat if Boston turns around and says they're happy drafting Seguin after all and they were just BS'ing you the whole time about wanting Hall.
You just got the player you didn't want, and Boston got the player they did want. It would be like losing first overall for nothing.
No, all this moving picks business is just silly talk. Select the guy you want and move forward.
I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this or not, but...has any team traded the kid they've picked first overall to the team picking second for their pick? I almost like Bookie's idea, it's like the ultimate game of chicken. It would be interesting to see if the return would be greater in that situation than making the trade before the draft. I like both players about the same anyway.
ReplyDeleteBut maybe it's too crazy of an idea
With Hall and Seguin being so close in most people's eyes, if you can get another first rounder and still get one of these guys why in the hell wouldn't you do it? Heck, even a 2nd rounder makes it well worth it.
ReplyDeleteI thought you weren't allowed to trade your drafts once they are made, - ?
ReplyDeleteI don't know if anyone knows the answer to this or not, but...has any team traded the kid they've picked first overall to the team picking second for their pick?
ReplyDeleteKind of a dick move to have the kid come up, put on the Oilers jerseys, shake hands and take pictures, and then trade him.
Call me crazy but I think we already have our franchise centre with Sam Gagner.
ReplyDeleteWho's to say drafting Hall won't eventually push Gagner's boxcars up significantly?
I remember the Gagner draft and alot of people being really excited about the prospect of either landing Voracek or Gagner. With the Oilers taking Gagner he was immediately the centre of the future for the Oilers. Now a couple of years later and he's going to top out as the #2 guy?
I don't get it. Gagner is still only 20 years old and is not done filling out his body. He has gotten stronger every year since being drafted even though his boxcars indicate otherwise.
I look at what the Oilers have down the middle and can't help but think that they already have 2 top 3 guys. Horcoff can play in any of those 3 roles while Gagner still could be a #1 and at least a capable #2. If the Oilers get a RH checking centre for cheap I think it makes much more sense to draft Hall.
We still don't know how Eberle and MPS will turn out and Penner and Hemsky only have 2 years remaining on their contracts and it's a toss up at this point if either will be with the organization past that point.
Gagner and Horcoff will be Oilers for at least the next 5 years barring trade. Do you really want to take a chance on losing Hemsky and Penner and having only 1 of Eberle/MPS turn into a legitimate top 6 forward?
This team is still paper thin on the wings. People are still comparing Voracek and Gagner and some hoped Voracek would be the choice.
Now's the chance to get that winger with top end talent. Hall should be the choice.
Something just scares me about Seguin. Not sure what it is but I'm not convinced he'll live up to his potential.
I think the recent media talk about Seguin is just an attempt by the Oilers to balance expectations in the public, since Hall is more famous. And it has been "the fall for Hall" all winter in the media.
ReplyDeleteIt is in the Oilers interest for the public to understand this is more of a 1A and a 1B choice, so if they decide to pick Seguin, the city won't have a massive anxiety attack, or a fit of depression this morning, if they had lost the lottery.
I think Hall is still more probable. I would prefer Seguin, but won't fret if it is Hall.
//I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this or not, but...has any team traded the kid they've picked first overall to the team picking second for their pick? //
ReplyDeleteBryan Berard, Wade Redden.
godot - I've got a bad memory for that sort of thing and don't recall the situation. Did they do it right at the draft? How was it perceived by the media? Like Schitzo said - it sounds like a dick move.
ReplyDeleteThat was after the fact, though.
ReplyDelete//
He was drafted first overall by the Ottawa Senators in the 1995 NHL Entry Draft. He would not play a game for the Senators, after informing the club he would not report. The Senators traded him along with Martin Straka to the New York Islanders for Wade Redden and Damian Rhodes. //
I think what's suggested here is Boston trading their pick +, to get a guy selected earlier. It'd be the same all the way down, you're waiting at 15 for someone and he goes 11, so you trade your 15 + to get the guy you wanted. Like I said, I don't think it's allowed - else you'd see at least a couple of these moves happen, and afaik it's never been done. So it's likely a rule?
OT, and apologies if someone's already noted this, but Barnes has a pretty good column up on the Journal site. He's as critical of Oilers management as anyone is in the Edmonton media is likely to be, and he strikes a pretty rational balance between the "everything's fine, except Souray's a big meanie" and the "management is mentally deficient, and should all be shot" positions that seem to be prevailing with different segments of the fanbase. Barnes is not bad.
ReplyDelete@Alice:
ReplyDeleteIf you can deal draftees after being drafted (whether it be the next day or 2 years down the road) why wouldn't you be able to do it on draft day?
(just looking at the situation logically as I don't know if there is a rule about it or just an unspoken agreement among GMs to not treat the kids like pieces of meat...at least to their faces.)
Kris
ReplyDeletetemherte slaq¡
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be too disruptive of the draft process itself. You could likely make the trade a day later if you could agree to make the right pick for someone else the day before, but allowing it during the draft it would turn into one of those crazy christmas gift exchanges, and probably take twice as long. Not a very dignified process ~
ReplyDeletebut allowing it during the draft it would turn into one of those crazy christmas gift exchanges,
ReplyDeleteThat would be AWESOME - they should run the draft in reverse and allow teams to steal each others pick, if your pick gets stolen, you get to go back in and pick another pick. They should also put bows on the heads of the draft picks!
Btw, Where the hell are all the smart folks to weigh in on this wrt it being a rule or not?
ReplyDeleteLike, "YOU ARE WRONG!"
Bookie,
ReplyDeleteBetween that and getting "Hall demanding a trade out of Edm" in the First comment yesterday, you're killing us.
It's that i thingy what's done it, like the spiral bacteria messing with your brain or something
Awesome Bookie.
ReplyDeleteOff topic, but it looks like Atlanta is following the Oilers model. They suck for years, fire the coach, promote the GM to President and bring in a new GM in Rick Dudley. Fools should have followed the Chicago model like we are.
We are still following the Chicago model, are we not?
At least with Dudley back in charge of a team, KLowe won't win the most ridiculous hairdo contest at the next GM meeting.
Alice: Trades happen at the draft all the time. I'm not sure how it would be more disruptive. I know at the NBA draft, players have often gotten traded after they've been picked. The teams have discussed things but often don't finalize things until well after the selection. The player sometimes is none the wiser and wanders around happily in the wrong hat.
ReplyDeleteDiscussion on the radio yesterday was that some scouts were concerned about Hall being hit too often with his head down.
ReplyDeleteTambi said for the kids sake he hopes the kid learns quickly.
I would pick Seguin
I don't want to be too much of a dick here - cut to Oilman creaming his pants;) - and before I make my point let me say that old 94 was a fave of mine and I know that athletes don't have to be ultra bright or anything.
ReplyDeleteStill, Hall doesn't seem like the brightest fellow while Seguin is well spoke and thoughtful and plus he's a RH pivot with size and skill to boot.
Fuck it would be nice if I can convince myself that they are really gonna take him and then I don't have to worry about it from now until June.
It seems quite likely the B's and Oil make a move because despite there being a lot of history - some even recent - between those clubs when it comes to deals you also have two kids out there that fill two different needs with two different orgs with clearly different wants.
So this should be a slam-dunk and now all that needs to be decided is what's coming back to Edm.
Btw, Where the hell are all the smart folks to weigh in on this wrt it being a rule or not?
ReplyDeleteWell, smart folk is debatable, but I'll chime in.
(a) Commencing with the 2005 Entry Draft, a Player selected by a Club in the Entry Draft shall be registered on the Reserve List of the selecting Club as an "Unsigned
Draft Choice."
Combined with
The rights acquired under the selection process under this
Article shall be transferable without Waivers to any other Club by standard assignment and the transferee Club shall thereby acquire all of the rights of the original selecting Club.
There's no length of time set out before you can trade picks. From a practical point of view, I have no idea how often the "Reserve List" is actually updated. If you want to give it the strictest reading possible, you would need to wait until the league releases the updated Reserve List to trade a newly-drafted player.
(I doubt that you actually need to wait for the league to update the list, by the way - that's just the strictest interpretation I can think of)
ReplyDeleteyou also have two kids out there that fill two different needs with two different orgs with clearly different wants.
ReplyDeleteSo this should be a slam-dunk and now all that needs to be decided is what's coming back to Edm.
Or, Chiarelli - who seems like a smart guy - reads the situation, guesses that the Oil will take Seguin anyway, and waits his turn while giving up nothing.
Or, Chiarelli - who seems like a smart guy - reads the situation, guesses that the Oil will take Seguin anyway, and waits his turn while giving up nothing.
ReplyDeleteI'd take Hall just to spite him.
I mean, the organization is going to find a way to fuck this up anyways, might as well get a moment of joy from the suffering of others.
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteIt seems plausible, but I've Never, ever, ever seen a trade involving a draft player during the draft. That's close to zero, no? So i think the Draft Hall and then flip is not only a non-starter for being a dick move, but either written-or-unwritten can't do. Funny, I thought that I must have read about this prohibition on Lowetide in a previous year, because I have no other clue where the idea might have come from.
Dennis: You should be fans of a few players in the organization then as it's possible they might have a bias in that direction as well. Dubnyk and Brule were both named CHL scholastic players of the year. Moreau and Eberle were named scholastic players of the year for the OHL and WHL respectively. Plus, Stortini and Gagner were the winners for their junior teams.
ReplyDeleteBen: I believe so was Boyd Devereaux.
ReplyDeleteBTW, this is what some of the trades in the top part of the draft have looked like in the past.
ReplyDelete2003: Florida trades #1 + #73 to Pittsburgh for #3 + #55 + Mikael Samuelsson
2002: Florida trades #1 to Columbus for #3 and right to swap 1st round picks next year
Florida trades #82 and 2003 4th round pick to Atlanta on condition that Atlanta doesn't select Jay Bouwmeester
1999: Tampa trades #1 to Vancouver for #4 + #75 + #88
Vancouver trades #1 + conditional 3rd round pick in 2000 to Atlanta for #2 (Condition being that neither Sedin is selected by Atlanta)
1982: Minnesota (#2) trades Brad Palmer and Dave Donnelly to Boston (#1) on condition that Boston doesn't select Brian Bellows
The trades in 2002 stand out because Don Waddell put the screws to Rick Dudley after Florida had already agreed to flip picks with Columbus. Waddell had hinted to Dudley before that Kari Lehtonen was his guy at #2 in that draft so Dudley felt comfortable trading down from #1 to #3. But Waddell then told Dudley after the trade that he needed compensation or he would select Bouwmeester. So Florida ending up giving up picks to move down in the draft. Waddell said after the draft though that Lehtonen was the #1 player on their draft board.
The 1999 shuffle was so Burke could grab the twins.
Brian Bellows was the consensus #1 pick in 1982 so Minnesota was willing to pay to have him drop to #2. Boston would have taken Kluzak anyways.
Good old Boyd. Always thought he would catch on somewhere. He seemed to in Detroit as a 4th liner till Danny Cleary V2 showed up and ate his lunch.
ReplyDeleteDid okay his last stint as a fringe Leaf (11 or so points in 25 or so games), so I was a bit surprised to find out he's in Switzerland or something now.
I remember the Gagner draft and alot of people being really excited about the prospect of either landing Voracek or Gagner. With the Oilers taking Gagner he was immediately the centre of the future for the Oilers. Now a couple of years later and he's going to top out as the #2 guy?
ReplyDeleteIt's all about taking the best asset Wolfie. In 2005 the Pittsburgh Penguins already had Evgeni Malkin in their back pockets, but there was another up and coming centre with strong, muscular legs that was leading the draft class. Rather than defer to other "prospects" like Bobby Ryan and Jack Johnson, or go "off the reserve" with Carey Price...they tabbed another pivot. Then they did it AGAIN the next year.
To make a long story short, they've been to the Cup Finals the last two years.
Gagner may still wind up being a #1 centre, but if the Pittsburgh model proves anything, having two #1's (and a very young Jordan Staal) isn't that bad of a safety net.
Vancouver trades #1 + conditional 3rd round pick in 2000 to Atlanta for #2 (Condition being that neither Sedin is selected by Atlanta)
ReplyDeleteVancouver traded #1 and another pick for #2? That doesn't seem right.
The trades in 2002 stand out because Don Waddell put the screws to Rick Dudley
This would be the same Rick Dudley who TODAY assumed Don Waddell's at-long-last-former job as GM of the Thrashers? Great timing for your otherwise-unrelated comment.
If I was a Thrasher fan, I'd be more than a tad alarmed that my team just hired the one guy Don Waddell ever schooled on the trade market. :)
I see the point you're making, Dorito, but I don't think that Sidney Crosby is the best example of the tough decision to take BPA instead of drafting for need.
ReplyDelete2006 is funny too, because after EJ went first overall the next five players were all centres. At that point you HAD to choose on talent instead of positionally, unless you went way off the board.
Vancouver trades #1 + conditional 3rd round pick in 2000 to Atlanta for #2 (Condition being that neither Sedin is selected by Atlanta)
ReplyDeleteVancouver traded #1 and another pick for #2? That doesn't seem right.
Not if you think about it the way Burke did. He was willing to give a shitload to come away from that day with both Sedins. He had the 1st and 3rd overall, but was worried that after picking one Sedin, ATL would sweep and take the second. To give up an additional 3rd rounder to give ATL the honour to select 1st overall (and consequently blow it with Patrik Stefan) is a small price to pay.
It may have been Brian Burke's only shrewd move as a GM.
Bruce: It was weird but my guess is that Atlanta would only agree to not take either Sedin if they could make their selection at #1 since it would be better marketing for a brand new expansion team. As you can see, Don Waddell does like to screw with other GMs to get something for nothing.
ReplyDeleteAnd I saw the story on TSN this morning about the shakeup in Atlanta and I meant to comment on it before I forgot since I found it amusing.
We are still following the Chicago model, are we not?
ReplyDeleteThis made me laugh out loud. Rider guy with the post of the week.
If the Oilers are following a model, they chose the one with the most fumes from the excess glue.
If the Oilers are following a model, they chose the one with the most fumes from the excess glue.
ReplyDeleteI thought they were following the white powder trail of Kate Moss...
dorito: That would have been the 80s Oilers.... I probably shouldn't have gone there but that scandal was pretty big.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Schitzo that taking Crosby was a no-brainer even if you have Malkin already.
If Hall and Seguin are a saw-off, I see a greater need on the wings than in the middle. The 06 Oilers proved you don't need elite centremen to get to the Cup final.
I think elite wingers are harder to find. I also don't believe the Oilers need an elite centre. I'm also not convinced that Seguin's ceiling is any better than Gagner's.
With Vande Velde, Lander and Nash in the pipeline. If Pouliot can get over the injury hump. I think the Oilers are in good shape down the middle. I would still like the organization sign a vet to bridge the gap.
I don't think MPS plays in Edmonton next year. Eberle is 50/50 to make the club. After Hemsky and Penner there's not much.
If Seguin were head and shoulders better than Hall I would say take Seguin. I think team need has to be considered since no one is the clear BPA.
Also, I just love the way Hall shoots the puck. As a goalie watching him shoot, that puck is lively off his stick. If you can get a dynamic shooter like Hall who also happens to be able to distribute the puck....
Even Gretzky has said that the most important ingredient to winning a Cup is goaltending. So I guess it doesn't really matter who the Oilers pick until the goaltending issue is addressed.
Tambi addressing the media right now...
ReplyDeleteTambellini IS David Brent.
ReplyDeleteFor crying out loud, he thinks in goal is the only place "we're set"...#*$&(*%&$(*&%#!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThat was one hell of a presser.
ReplyDeleteWhat did you expect Tambellini to say JohnnyShaka?
ReplyDeleteDid anyone think Tambellini would come out and say something like: "I really screwed the pooch and signed Khabi to that contract, now not only do we still need to solidify the goaltending situation, we also have a hugely limiting contract on our books for the next few seasons".
Too many mentions of JFJ and toughness. Thought he might have taken a shot at Roli too....
ReplyDeleteUni, the first step is admitting you have a problem. I'm sure Khabby could explain this to him, if only management bothered to check in on injured players.
ReplyDeletewhat did he say?
ReplyDelete"With Vande Velde, Lander and Nash in the pipeline. If Pouliot can get over the injury hump. I think the Oilers are in good shape down the middle."
ReplyDeletePlacing your chips on that number I don't understand. None of those guys are sure things...none of them are close in fact.
If Jean Francois Jacques is back on this team in the fall, I'm gonna start hucking grapefruits from the stands until he falls on one and hurts his back. GIVE UP ON THE BUM ALREADY!
@uni,
ReplyDeleteWe all know they need help up front, on the backend, and in goal...yet Tambi says goaltending is fine...what place did we finish in again and how many goals did we give up?
I'm not expecting him to come out and say Nick let him down and the kids sucked ass but when he readily admitted that the rest of the team needed improving and let the tenders off the hook that's just silly.
Ed, well played.
ReplyDeleteLHMF, if JFJ is still here next season, along with Strudwick and Khabi/JDD/DD, I'll dance a little jig and start saving for my Adam Larsson Oilers sweater.
There's an English version on Elite Prospects as well, but I rather prefer the Google Translation version.
ReplyDeleteGreat talent that is very round. Larsson has an excellent inside game, good physics and is also good both front and rear. Severe Stopped when he gets up to speed and carrying the puck in a highly secure and efficient manner. Capable standby players, which also can be closed. Strong in the close control.
I wouldn't mind one more 1st overall pick at all...I think this management group has what it takes to do it again in 2011, lottery willing.
Dennis, Souray asked for a trade during last years hissy fit, goalie is the only position without holes, made mention of players being happy with their point totals production (again), wants culture change (blah), teams needs more toughness (blah blah), spoke with Moreau quite a bit, changes came at deadline and we can expect more change, Eberle has a good chance of making the team in his mind, won't decide on draft pick until end of June (supposedly), more... It's a good one to listen to. I haven't heard Tambellini sound this confident with the media...ever. Good sign?
ReplyDeleteHere's the presser... Link
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/boomer960
ReplyDeleteIginla willing to waive NMC.
goalie is the only position without holes
ReplyDeleteHahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!! Did he really say no holes? No holes barred, more like it.
... or, to quote one of my game reports over at C&B:
Normalcy returned when Ottawa stopped trying to pick the corners and started shooting at the middle of the net. Goals followed in rapid succession, one through Deslauriers' nine-hole (off the back pad and in), another through the seven-hole (between catching glove and hip), then two more through the more traditional five-hole.
278 GA, 15 worse than 29th place Toronto. You can blame a lot of that on the defence and forwards, but let's just say our netminding didn't make those other problems disappear.
LHMF: Good stuff. But i still believe they could mismanage enough so that he gets to start game 1.
ReplyDeleteYou can blame a lot of that on the defence and forwards, but let's just say our netminding didn't make those other problems disappear.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Bruce. The goaltending is definitely also bad.
On goalies, he says he doesn't want to go into next season with 3 guys.
ReplyDeleteWill be curious to see what Tambi's "assessment" of goalies yields in trade. Will he trade ADD and keep DD or reverse.
ReplyDeleteHave to think DD might have marginally more trade value, but you run a risk that when (not if) Khabibulin gets injured again that you've got to go w/ADD for the balance of the season and the wheels come off again. He's never going to be a #1 goalie in the NHL.
The risk of next year being another complete stinker remains high no matter what other moves are made this summer if we go w/Khabibulin as our #1 netminder.
Not sure that I'm ready for another winter of hockey discontent after this last one.
won't decide on draft pick until end of June (supposedly)
ReplyDelete...minus the "end of". After Combines and final interviews anyway. Comibine goes May 24-29.
OT, but for some chuckles check out how badly this Swiss goaltender gets clowned by MPS and Omark in Sweden's 5-4 shootout win over Switzerland today:
ReplyDeletehttp://svtplay.se/v/1964048/straffavgorandet_schweiz-tre_kronor
For crying out loud, he thinks in goal is the only place "we're set"
ReplyDeleteHe is correct. Khabi Over 35 contract. Set! .910-.915 Save %
Two young goaltenders:
One who reflects a .901-.910 save precentage.
And one who was .865 save % and lacked confidence until Replacing in the TO game.
After Looked good and first win kicked the confidence. since that point .922 Save %
Camp will be interesting next year.
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ReplyDeleteDrinky-bulin is back for another year, then.
ReplyDeleteWell, I suppose there are 3 possible scenarios:
1. He stays healthy for at least most of the season and provides decent-ish goaltending. If we can add some vets around Hemsky, Penner, Horcoff, to help shield Gagner, Cogliano and maybe 1 -dear God, not 5- rookies, we could make the playoffs. Of course, we'd need some of that Denver puck luck, and we'd have no chance in the playoffs.
2. Khabi goes down early and we're back to craptastic JDD and or underdeveloped DD. If so, our bad goaltending drags us down to another lottery pick. Hopefully, by the deadline we're sellers, which will help improve our draft position.
3. Khabi goes down in the middle of the season, which sort of leaves us high and dry.
At this point, I suppose 2. is in the best interest of the team in the long and medium term. If we suck again, maybe Tambellini finally gets the boot, maybe we finally find a way to duff Khabi or trade his contract to a cap-poor team. And most importantly, it forces management to make deals in the long term interest of the club.
Unfortunately, I find it hard to conceive watching a team this bad again next season. So, I'm secretly rooting for 1. to happen.
Undoubtedly, since this is the Oilers we're talking about 3. will happen and the Oilers will trade a bunch of young guys for vets and then miss the playoffs anyway.
He is correct. Khabi Over 35 contract. Set! .910-.915 Save %
ReplyDeleteTwo young goaltenders:
One who reflects a .901-.910 save precentage.
Khabi has put up a .910+ sv% once in the past 5 years.
And the one who reflects a .901 - .910 barely cracked that lower marker.
On goalies, he says he doesn't want to go into next season with 3 guys.
ReplyDeleteWhat, you mean like he wanted to make the team tougher?
Or he wanted to change team culture by not moving ANYONE last summer?
I also remember him wanting to trade for Danny Heatley...
What Steve wants, and what actually happens seems to be rather far apart...
Dawgbone: I have an editor for a fiance. Quebecor. Set does not mean good! It is Set.
ReplyDeleteOld goaltender who will be 20-30 in Save %.
Jdd who shows to be a 30th-40thh save % guy.
DD glimpses of wow in AHL and last 8 games since his Confidence was helped.
OT, and apologies if someone's already noted this, but Barnes has a pretty good column up on the Journal site. He's as critical of Oilers management as anyone is in the Edmonton media is likely to be, and he strikes a pretty rational balance between the "everything's fine, except Souray's a big meanie" and the "management is mentally deficient, and should all be shot" positions that seem to be prevailing with different segments of the fanbase. Barnes is not bad.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Barnes is about as critical of management as is allowed by the Edmonton media (yes, I'm choosing to frame it that way), but that article did have some curiosities... specifically Barnes saying that Strudwick is a keeper! (And that Pouliot should be shown the door.)
I mean, yesh, I guess so, Dan... if you're aiming for another lottery pick next year.
4. A rejuvenated (and sober) Khabbi wins the Vezina next year and the exciting young Oilers win the division.
ReplyDeleteStranger things have happened.
So as I understand it...
ReplyDeleteLast years Goalie plan was:
#1 36 year old guy with a history of injuries.
#2A Young guy with 10 games experience.
#2B Young guy with 0 games experience.
So you go into the season hoping #1 stays healthy.
So now the plan is to get rid of 2A or 2B??
Short version of Tambellini presser.
ReplyDeleteTambellini throws Lowe and Prendergast under the bus.
There is still a NHL backup goaltender glut.
ReplyDeleteAnd since Khabibulin looks like he will be ready to go in September (for a couple of months anyway), I hope it is Khabibulin and Dubnyk,
with risking JDD on waivers to play in OKC, or trading him, and signing a one veteran backup out of the glut to be ready in OKC.
Short version of Tambellini presser.
ReplyDeleteTambellini throws Lowe and Prendergast under the bus.
Just listened to that (thanks for the link, ribs) and yeah, no kidding. Basically: "the development system is garbage, the team culture is garbage, and most of the players are garbage, and these problems are ingrained. It has to be burned down, and it'll take a long time to fix."
Were it not for the goalie thing, I'd actually be optimistic about Tambellini. As it stands, gotta wait 6 months or so to see what happens.
Ironically, I'm now left still evaluating.
digger:
ReplyDeletePaajarvi's was pretty good, but for Omark to pick top corner on a clapper like that...wow.
The puppet has painted himself into a corner with the Khabibulin signing. So the only real option left if they want to keep the guy on the NHL roster is to start the year with him along with one of the young guys and hope like hell he can hang together. Of course it will help if he isn’t overplayed - but like the Oilers ever show any sense with goalies?
ReplyDeleteOf course my preference is to have Dubnyk as the the young backup since he has shown some very positive signs over the last part of the season since the Oly break. If Khabibulin can hang together for about 45 of the tougher games (absolutely no B2B) and allow the Oilers to protect Dubnyk a bit next year in his 35 starts - then we may be able to manage this horrific signing. But it all depends on a young guy emerging as a quality starter over the next two years - and Khabibulin being willing and able to mentor and gradually become the backup by the end of his contract.
No sense keeping JDD around as he has demonstrated to be back-up material with some serious technical issues that will probably prevent him from being anything more. If Khabibulin gets hurt again - JDD does not help at all - you have to go out and trade for a real starter. So the best strategy IMHO is hope for Dubnyk to emerge and Khabibulin to hang together under a reduced load.
I get that a lot of you hate our goaltending. Perhaps Tambellini sees something you are missing. So lets do a little thinking about his position.
ReplyDeleteWhatever analysis you do you get basically the same conclusions, goaltending was our biggest problem but it wasn't over 50% of our problem, not close, not even in terms of goals allowed.
If we had upgraded our goaltending to league average we would have given up 23.9 fewer goals [(league average goaltending sv% - our sv%) X total shots on net by opposition over season]. That would have made us 10 points better. [23.9/219 (league average goals allowed) times 92 (league average points). We would still have been 30th overall.
Had we been able to forecheck and to clear the puck from our own end as well as an average NHL team we'd have given up 21.9 fewer goals [(1-league average sv%) X (Oilers shots allowed per game -league average shots allowed per game)]. Finally, had we not had to rely on AHL defencemen we would have given up 13.2 less goals. [this is a VORP (value of replacement player)analysis]. These two factors cost us another 15 points. Then there was the impact of our scoring drought which cost us 5 more points [(league average goals scored - Oilers goals scored)/219 X 92]
The question for all of you who don't agree with Tambi is, how many of those bad goaltending goals [(league average goaltending sv% - our sv%) X total shots on net by opposition over season]were about quality of scoring opportunities surrendered rather than goaltending mistakes? If we gave up just 0.9% more quality scoring opportunities than an average NHL team then we simply hung our young goaltenders out to dry. Maybe our GM thinks we were a quality scoring opportunity leaking machine. Anybody want to argue that point? Remember us stuck in our own end with Chorney and Struds playing for over 3 minutes?
Had we been able to forecheck and to clear the puck from our own end as well as an average NHL team we'd have given up 21.9 fewer goals [(1-league average sv%) X (Oilers shots allowed per game -league average shots allowed per game)].
ReplyDeleteIf you're talking about replacing the defence and not the goalie, shouldn't that be [1 - oilers sv%] in your math?
(It actually makes your point even stronger, btw)
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteI actually had it that way to begin with (1-Oilers sv%). However, I thought the other way did a better job of eliminating the goaltender effect. However, you are right that it did highlight how much of our problems came from the brutal territorial disadvantage we suffered from this year.
Fair enough. I'm pretty neutral on the goaltending situation, simply because the other issues you've identified are going to be long-term fixes. If we can get those ducks in order, the goaltending can (one day in 2014, give or take) be addressed via free agency or trade.
ReplyDeleteLinnaeus: "Hate" is definitely not the word w.r.t. our goalies, the younger ones especially. I agree that there's plenty of blame to go around. In 2009-10 this organization was deficient in pretty much any area you care to analyze: goalies, defence, forwards, coaches, management, pancake-eaters ...
ReplyDeleteWhich is different from saying there are no reasons for hope, at least in the on-ice portion of that list.