Sunday, April 4, 2010

Handling the Blue

This is Taylor Chorney. In his pro career, Chorney has been leaking at even strength like a 74-75 Washington Capital.

There are some things we can observe about the young man that might contribute to the horrific plus minus numbers. First, he's a rookie and rookies make mistakes. Chaos passes, errors in positioning, covering the wrong man and on it goes. Second, Chorney has the bad damn luck to be a young Oiler at a time when the veteran chosen to protect him (Strudwick) is a human gas can.

There's another item. The Oilers have played Chorney in some of the more difficult circumstances available to the team since his arrival in pro hockey. Jonathan Willis did a splendid job of showing us the 08-09 Falcons blue in terms of which defenders were playing the toughest minutes. Here are his findings:
  1. Theo Peckham 1.905 (-7) (47gp)
  2. Taylor Chorney 1.751 (-29) (68gp)
  3. Cody Wild 1.712 (-14) (59gp)
  4. Jake Taylor 1.703 (+1) (28gp)
  5. Mathieu Roy 1.639 (-20) (49gp)
  6. Bryan Young 1.489 (-2) (63gp)
  7. Robbie Bina 1.489 (-18) (37gp)
  8. Mike Gabinet 1.422 (-13) (45gp)
What we have here is three kids playing the toughest opponents and three veterans (Taylor, Roy and Young) playing secondary minutes. I understand there weren't enough veterans on the blueline and that injuries had an impact, but the only reasonable conclusion we can draw from that list is that the Oilers were content to have their young defenders struggle against more mature and better competition.

Earl Weaver--the smartest man in baseball in terms of integrating minors to majors talent--never put a young man in a position to fail. His starters, even the really good ones, had to pitch in the bullpen for a time. His position players were mostly placed in a platoon or used for late inning defense. Earl got a tremendous amount out of his rosters and this was a key component.

The Oilers like to send their kids into the deep end, and the results for Chorney have been predictable. This year, Chorney is in the NHL (although he doesn't belong) and has the toughest zone start along the blue (39.3% of his faceoffs are in the offensive end). He's facing mid-level quality and getting mid-level help, although being paired with Jason Strudwick is not actually help at this point in time.

How are they doing with the newest college hire, Jeff Petry? In 2 AHL games this weekend, the Oilers newest pro defenseman is -6. The goals that have been scored against Springfield came from Philip Gogulla (5th in Portland scoring), mid-level talent Cody McCormick and depth player Travis Turnbull. The two Hartford goals were scored by Justin Soryal and Andres Ambul, 2 forwards who are near the end of the roster for the Wolf Pack. He's been paired with Johan Motin and Jake Taylor on the GA.

If we can agree that the step from college and junior to the AHL is a big one, then the handling of Taylor Chorney so far is a mystery. The very early returns on Jeff Petry are less alarming.

24 comments:

  1. Placing young and developing athletes in a position to succeed is an essential ingredient when making a confident player. Making mistakes is part of the learning process - but it has to be in manageable chunks. The Oilers management need to realize that is even more important with the youth of today. Most of these young men have been sheltered and protected from failure - until they join the Oilers organization. (Riley Nash is a smart man not to have signed yet.)

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  2. Does anyone know wher I can see the highlights from the Windsor/Plymouth game last night?

    And also... if everyone says that Seguin is the better defensive player then why does Hall kill penalties and Seguin doesn't. I don't know if that actually true or not but I have read it a couple times now. If Seguin doesn't have the supporting cast that Hall does then you think he would play in more situations, right?

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  3. If Seguin doesn't have the supporting cast that Hall does then you think he would play in more situations, right?

    If he has no supporting cast, they might also be saving him to play 30+ minutes a game at ES and the PP.

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  4. I have also read that sometimes Seguin plays the entire 2 minute powerplay. Probably because of the desire for him to produce combined with the lack of depth on Plymouth. When you go down the Windsor roster it is a much better team from a depth and experience perspective.

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  5. Meh ! Who cares! (jk)

    It's Opening day in the MLB =D!

    Let's make some predictions!

    NL East: Ding Dong Phillies
    NL Central: Cubbies finally breaking it.
    NL West: Rockin' Rockies
    2nd Best: Braves with backdoor Bobby Coxx.

    AL East: Yankees. 200M$ Of them.
    AL Central: Freeze your ass in October, Twins.
    AL West: Rangers, big lumbers and hurlers.
    2nd Best: Royals, i like underdogs =D (But more seriously the Rays)

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  6. I just don't see much of a future in Chorney.

    Off topic a bit: A compilation of MPS's season. Hard not to get excited about the guy. He takes the puck to the net, and appears to have a reasonably good shot

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oehXP_zJYmk

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  7. Thanks for that PJ Oil. The video effects from that have blurred my vision.
    I always chuckle at how bad some of the goaltending is over there.

    I think I've figured out why MPS looks bigger than he's listed. He skates quite upright. Seems to work for him though. It looks like it is very hard to knock him off the puck.

    Having said that this guy needs some stiffer competition. The defense on some of those highlights reminded me of Chorney.

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  8. Mostly defensive zone draws with Strudwick as a linemate?

    Wolves, this is Taylor Chorney. Taylor, wolves.

    I wouldn't have put money on him to begin with - I see him as the MAB/Syvret tree of chaos little defencemen. But apparently he made a pass at Renney's son or something to draw that kind of duty.

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  9. You know what makes an easter egg hunt more fun? Following inches behind your two year old with a bucket, because he's been projective vomiting all night.

    Every time he looked in a nook or cranny all I could think was "please PLEASE do not throw up in there".

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  10. Given the "support" shown towards Chorney this year by upper management, I think we're going to have to pencil him into the starting line-up at this point. Which is going to go a long way towards securing a high draft pick in 2011.

    I think he's going to have a career in much the same way Gilbert Brule is currently. He's going through the wringer with the Oilers (as Brule did in CBJ) and will emerge as a passable and productive member of another organization once we run him out of town. He's being forced (like Brule) to play over his head when he's too young. It's going to take a year of devotion in the minors to sort out the wrinkles in his game, but he'll likely come back all the better for having done it.

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  11. Taking out an EN goal, Petry stands at -4 in 5 games so far. I don't think his results are alarming, nor are they cause for concern.

    In that 5 game stretch Springfield has been outscored at ES 15-4. Their goalies have collectively put up an 86.2 SV%.

    The results for the rest of the defense are below. Perusing the names in the motley crew it's not surprising that Springfield is not playing well right now. They've been decimated by injuries as well and most of the guys on the backend belong in the ECHL.

    Jake Taylor -4 in 5 games
    JF David -5 in 5 games
    Eddie Del Grosso -3 in 5 games
    Chris Armstrong -1 in 5 games
    Jordan Bendfeld -4 in 3 games
    Johan Motin +1 in 2 games

    The early results on Petry are just that, early. He's been logging a lot of time on a very poor team. Hopefully he'll be able to translate that experience seamlessly to playing for the Oilers.

    -----

    As a side note I am somewhat confused by Motin only playing in 2 games over the 5 game stretch. Injury? Especially with guys like JF David and Del Grosso playing in all 5 games. From the few games I've watched this season I doubt the team offers Bendfeld another contract. Quite frankly he's an atrocious player even at the AHL level. Armstrong is the only defender who consistently looks good out there, which shouldn't be surprising given his experience at that level.

    -----

    Schitzo: From what I've seen/heard, it would not be inaccurate to say that Seguin gets rode hard by his team. He basically plays every second shift at ES for Plymouth and has at times played full two minute powerplays. Hall almost gets the opposite treatment from Windsor. As soon as they put the game out of reach he sits out at ES and plays mostly on special teams. When the playoffs started I was firmly in the Hall camp and nothing to this point has changed my mind.

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  12. I hope the Oilers know what they are doing with Motin.

    He seems to have some of the best underlying stats but get HS a lot, just like Wild.

    Also, if you are going to sit a guy, tell him why. I couldn't believe the Wild comments that Daum would HS him and not tell him why.

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  13. Off topic, but there's no better place to discuss first overall draft picks:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/business/04view.html?ref=sports

    The NFL is not analogous to the NHL for a number of reasons (older draft age, non-guaranteed contracts, sissy boring game where fat guys push each other and then rest), but I suspect the NHL draft would benefit from a similar analysis.

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  14. "He seems to have some of the best underlying stats but get HS a lot, just like Wild."

    Wild is -8 with only 2 points in 14 games with Providence.

    Perhaps Wild is no good.

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  15. Traktor,

    You may be right. Wild might not be worth the pixals to write about him.

    Its lack of communication regarding getting HS, and losing ice time to players who buy all measures, were worse.

    I'd hate to see the same thing to happen to Motin. Every time I see him, I see him good and the math likes him too.

    If Benefeld is getting ice time while Motin sits, and Motin isn't being told why he is sitting, the Oilers may be souring a good prospect.

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  16. I noticed that Wild has been a pretty significant minus when I was looking at the AHL defensemen. I suspect he was protected quite a bit as an Oiler prospect due to inconsistency in his play, at least judging from Daum's comments from interviews. If the Bruins were not expecting that and played him in a more complete role it might explain his -8 in 14 games. Then again, Providence is almost as bad as Springfield so it just might be the team.

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  17. jon k: That was the problem. He most certainly was NOT protected in Springfield (Willis' work). The Oilers apparently bring in the new hires and throw them in the deep end of the pool.

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  18. Bohologo: Same goes for Baseball. Sometimes teams are even obliged to pick a lesser player because they can't afford BPA.

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  19. Brian Rafalski didn't play a game in the NHL till he was 26 or 27.

    Chorney is what, 23?

    Little skill guys take a long time to be able to compensate for their littleness.

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  20. LT: I might be misinterpreting Willis' two articles, but it seems to me that as the season progressed Daum played Wild more, but against substantially weaker opposition. His split shows a much lower qualcomp in the second half. His qualcomp from the first half of the season where he seemed to be struggling skews the average final qualcomp closer to the top of the cluster.

    In summary, I sort of came to the conclusion that Daum aptly viewed Wild as a useful, but flawed defenseman who needed to have his difficulty of play moved downward to have more success. He's since gone to another team that doesn't know him as well as a player, where he's struggling.

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  21. jon k: The problem is the way he started, and it does seem to be an organizational flaw. Why not start these kids on the 3rd pairing?

    The Oilers now rotate the new defensemen in the AHL between tough minutes and healthy scratches. Crazy.

    The other day Vic asked me why I was on about "development" and onside with the Oilers drafting. This would be an example.

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  22. Gotdot, that's a good point. Just remember though that Rafalski is by far and away an exception. His size to effectiveness ratio is just nuts, and I don't think anyone really believes that's Chorney's upside. Even then though, besides his play, it clearly shows that Chorney shouldn't be in the NHL. Heck, you could argue that a stint in the ECHL to build his confidence and settle his game before slotting him into the AHL for a season or two wouldn't be a bad move.

    It always struck me as odd how much the Oilers touted Chorney, and downplayed Wild. Large disparity there. At the end of the day I'd like to have seen less extremes and more moderation with their development.

    If they could have toned down the Chorney affinity a level, and upped the Wild love a level, I think it would have benefited both players a lot more than how they were actually handled.

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