The Oilers are currently following the San Jose (Logan Couture) model with regard to highly touted western leaguers, so Eberle is likely to spend all or part of 2010-11 in Oklahoma City, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain (and they'll never get to meet Prendergast. Damn shame).
Desjardins' equivalencies suggests Eberle would do fine offensively in the NHL next season.
i hope we get to see him here next year, but if not, i'm willing to wait for him to develop in the AHL. might mean we get a high pick the following draft as well! ;)
ReplyDeleteAn MVP in the W. An MVP in the O. I'm glad to be a fan again.
ReplyDeleteAn MVP in the W. An MVP in the O. I'm glad to be a fan again.
ReplyDeleteOf course, everybody in the N is awful, but I suppose we'll take what we can get.
a good argument for leaving him in the AHL is that Oklahoma City could probably use the marketing boost of having an MVP and future 'national league star' playing for them in their inaugural season.
ReplyDeletehe might even help them make the playoffs, which would be an additional boost. the more successful the affiliate is, the better the environment for oilers prospects to enter into.
next year the Oilers could dive for another high pick, while building up their prospects on the farm.
unfortunately, i don't think that's a luxury that the Oilers can afford. they need to show progress immediately in order to attract decent UFAs and have players willing to come here despite no-trade clauses.
the nightmare scenario is bombing for a year, bringing the prospects in and not having them meet expectations, and then losing Penner and Hemsky the next year.
i'm convinced that the team needs to make the playoffs in one of the next two years, if only for reasons of reputation. solidifying our reputation as perpetual losers will make even a long term rebuild that much more difficult.
solidifying our reputation as perpetual losers will make even a long term rebuild that much more difficult
ReplyDeleteHopefully the near capacity crowds that will show up next year don't dissuade the tall foreheads of the need to improve quickly and properly. Oh, wait, Tambellini is still running this team. Nevermind.
striatic: Why do you believe the Oilers need to "show progress immediately"? Why do they need to "attract decent UFA's" within the next season or two?
ReplyDeleteI don't see "solidifying our reputation" as a measurable objective for an NHL organization in a Canadian market.
The San Jose model?????
ReplyDeleteI thought we just got on the LA Kings model?
If the Wings win the Cup do you think we will go back to their model?
I would be OK with Ebs creating some excitement in EEklahoma (muppets version)
I think we rushed the wrong prospects. Some other guys REALLY could have used a year more of development. I hope we don't let Eberle spend the year in the A just 'cause. If he's ready, he's ready.
ReplyDeleteYa I think the "Logan Couture" model can only be done by teams like SJ, NJ or Det which have been historically top-end teams. Its gonna be tough for the Oilers to keep him down (well I hope) because he is likely a better option than some of our players. I'd still like to see a 25-40 game AHL stint though.
ReplyDeleteI think it is important to consider the quality of the AHL team your prospect is developing with when discussing where to send a prospect. There are miles of differences between sending a player to Worcester vs. Springfield. We don't know yet how Oklahoma will unfold.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the question we should be asking is if the Oilers can send their top prospects, like Eberle, to AHL teams like Worcester, Hamilton, Hershey, or Chicago? ;) A much more proven model of development.
I don't think there is anything to worry about with being seen as perpetual losers. Pittsburgh was a perpetual loser, enough so to get 4 straight lottery picks, but as soon as they start winning people are of course suddenly willing to play there.
ReplyDeleteThe same thing applies everywhere. If Atlanta was a cup contender for a year or two they could attract free agents just like anyone else and the same will hold true for Edmonton imo.
"Why do you believe the Oilers need to "show progress immediately"? Why do they need to "attract decent UFA's" within the next season or two?"
ReplyDeletethey don't need to attract decent UFAs in the next season or two, but after that season we're either going to need to convince Penner and Hemsky to stay, or pick up replacements of similar calibre.
the problem is doing this while not trading away our quality prospects, and indeed ADDING complementary players in supporting roles. "Actual NHL Players" as LT likes to point out.
we're going to need non-garbage players to surround the prospects and right now we don't have those players, nor quality players to trade for value.
i'm not talking about trying to attract "superstar players" to play in edmonton. the model has to be building prospects into core talents... but we still need actual NHL players to surround the prospects and make the team quality.
since we can't trade our garbage for quality, we're going to need to attract quality.
either that or trade Penner and/or Hemsky for those supporting players with longer contracts to surround the prospects, and go for a longer rebuild.
My prediction. The plan will be that he spends the year in the AHL. However, I think he will force the team to bring him up around the half way point of the season.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that is my hope as opposed to my prediction...
LOL at having to worry about what anyone outside the organisation thinks of the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing that matters is the org itself, it's players, it's fans, it's own teams(NHL+AHL).
Post lockout UFA's generally turn out to be nothing but overpriced, and useless at actually putting a team over the top. I'd be happy if the Oilers made it their announced policy to never so much as look at any of them for a few seasons at least.
striatic: Thank you for the clarification.
ReplyDeleteNHLE is useful tool but it won't tell us whether Eberle will have a clue in his own zone or handle the rough going.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather not have repeat of the Gagner, Cogliano experiences.
I'd like to see Eberle spend at least 1/2 a season in the the AHL so as to learn as much as possible against big players at a little slower speed and to play some D.
Eberle won't play a single game in the AHL next year.
ReplyDeleteThat's just common sense.
Traktor said: "Eberle won't play a single game in the AHL next year...That's just common sense."
ReplyDeleteDo you have any knowledge to go along with that common sense?
Do you have any knowledge to go along with that common sense?
ReplyDeleteWell, there's a first time for everything I suppose...
Psyche:
ReplyDeleteYou don't have to be an Meteorologist to know the sky is blue.
common sense is the bane of thinking.
ReplyDeletefirst it is not really common. it is instead assumed to be by the thinker.
second it is not sensical, or logical. it often takes the position of the thinker for the universal position (see Kant's categorical imperative, and his position on sex with your desired and your impending death).
third, it is not thinking but repeating what you have assumed to have learned somewhere else.
B.C.B. proves that common sense makes a lot more sense than his first year college level philosophy analysis, when judiciously applied to hockey talk.
ReplyDeleteAnd hunter proves the argument is more important than the point.
ReplyDelete...but as soon as they start winning people are of course suddenly willing to play there.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that I'm sold on this theory. Didn't the start of the mass exodus/nobody-likes-us follow the most successful Oilers season in 15 or so years? Coming within one game of the cup, though ultimately losing, still involved an awful lot of winning.
What is left unsaid by Traktor's usual drive-by commenting is... does he believe Eberle will not start in the A next year because:
ReplyDelete1. He believes there's no way this management team puts him back in the A dues to their own philosophy/incompetence (or whatever).
2. He believes Eberle will force his way onto the team at TC.
3. He believes it makes no sense to Eberle's development to have him in the A.
Such is the nature of the informational vacuums drive-by commenting creates. And in this case the obfuscation by omission appears somewhat deliberate.
Eberle will play every single game in the AHL next year.
ReplyDeleteThat's just common sense.
I think we rushed the wrong prospects. Some other guys REALLY could have used a year more of development. I hope we don't let Eberle spend the year in the A just 'cause. If he's ready, he's ready.
ReplyDeleteAs long as people realize that "better than players currently on the Oilers' roster" isn't the same thing as "ready".
"Eberle made the team last year on merit but we wanted to sure."
ReplyDelete- Pat Quinn
By all accounts Eberle took his game to another level.
I'll put a case of beer down that not only does he make the team but he will also score more goals than Gagner, O'Sullivan, Horcoff and Nilsson next year.
I dont see Eberle spending much time in the AHL. Even though its a small sample size he has clearly shown that he is ready for the next step up.
ReplyDeleteIf Eberle has a good TC it will be tough for the coaches to leave him off the team.
MPS playing with team sweden vs the czech rep here in stockholm tonight.
ReplyDeletehe had the first assist on swedens first goal by victor hedman.
omark is playing on a line with harju and oilers 2005 draftpick fredrik petterson
Eberle: AHL 20GM 9G 14A In 1/4 of an AHL seaon he has a 1.15PT/gm pace which would have made him 5th in league scoring.
ReplyDeleteCan he do it for a full season ???? Do not Know!
But he will force there hand is wrong.
He has forced thier hand.
regardin eberle, hasnt tyler shown that good teams (NJ, Det) don't hesitate to elevate prospects as soon as they're 20 years old
ReplyDeletehttp://vhsport.ru/lg_hockey.html
ReplyDeletelink for the sweden/czech game
thanks to slambanna over at HF for the link
mps is number 91
ReplyDeleteomark is number 23
Hall: 19
ReplyDeleteMPS: 19
Eberle: 20
Gagner: 21
Brule: 23
Cogliano: 23
Omark: 23
Which of these is not capable of making other nhl teams.
Either the NHL route or AHL route can work for Eberle.
ReplyDeleteI'm a lot more interested to know which the Oilers are looking at and why.
Personally, I'd be trying to win next year by loading up on supporting cast vets and putting as many of the young guys in the minors as possible, so that they must force their way onto a very good team, thus improving it.
OR (if for some inexplicable reason I'm precluded from trying that)
Play every competent young person I've got and develop them as a unit in the NHL with the aim that they're better, together, sooner. The best 12 make it regardless of perceived role.
The only reason Logan Couture played most of the season in the AHL is for cap reasons. They called him up and sent him down more than the Oilers did Dubnyk.
ReplyDeleteJust sayin'....
The clock is ticking on Eberle's ELC next year regardless of what league he's in, right? That being the case, if he either tears it up in the A or makes it clear during training camp that he would tear it up in the A if sent down, I see no reason to keep him out of the NHL.
ReplyDeleteHIs ELC only kicks in when he plays his tenth NHL game.
ReplyDeleteHIs ELC only kicks in when he plays his tenth NHL game.
ReplyDeleteI thought that was only the rule until they were AHL-eligible? If that's the case, why is Ryan O'Marra up for a new contract this year?
Steve might be talking about years of RFA status. If he plays in the NHL or AHL he'll be a UFA at 27 either way..
ReplyDeleteI think to be a UFA you have to either play 7 years in the NHL or be 27. So we wouldn't be wasting a RFA year or anything by having him play in the NHL.
I think to be a UFA you have to either play 7 years in the NHL or be 27. So we wouldn't be wasting a RFA year or anything by having him play in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's what I meant, not ELC; sorry about that.
But with the ELC, does that mean that he's automatically under contract for X years beginning from his tenth NHL game? That doesn't seem right - again, why is O'Marra's ELC up in that case?
Thank you Traktor for clarification on your original comment.
ReplyDeleteThe couple of things that strike me about Eberle are his desire and confidence... If the Oil choose to play him in the A while they continue to clean out the cupboards because Sloth-ellini hasn't completed the job over the summer, I'm okay with that. But I don't think they'll be able to keep him off the team for long.
He seems to want to be The Man, and to me that's the striking difference between him and Hemsky at the same age.
The 10 NHL game limit for ELC triggering applies to under 20 players I believe. Once they begin their 20 year old season their ELC starts to run regardless of whether they play in the AHL or NHL.
ReplyDeleteThe difference between San Jose and Edmonton is the players in front of the respective draft picks. LC has Marleau, Thornton, Setoguchi, Pavelski, Heatley all in front of him. JE has Hemsky, Penner, Nilsson, Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano in front of him. I see a difference there.
ReplyDeleteI'll put a case of beer down that not only does he make the team but he will also score more goals than Gagner, O'Sullivan, Horcoff and Nilsson next year.
ReplyDeleteI'll take that bet. But since mailing a case of beer is likely to create a mess, why don't we wager our right to post here.
If Eberle plays and scores more than all of Horcoff, Gagner, POS, and Nilsson (not combined, of course) then I won't post here for a year. If you he doesn't play in the NHL or if he doesn't score more than all the players listed above, regardless of what team they're on, then you can't post here for a year.
If that bet is too strong or mean, we could bet names. If you lose you post under a name I chose, and if I lose, I'll post under a name you choose.
"why don't we wager our right to post here."
ReplyDeleteThat's like Stortini asking Chara if he wants to go.
Chara is too smart to waste 5 minutes in the box over a guy like Storts.
Chicken
ReplyDeleteLeave him in the A so I can see him a few times in Abbotsford and don the Oil colours.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that I'm sold on this theory. Didn't the start of the mass exodus/nobody-likes-us follow the most successful Oilers season in 15 or so years? Coming within one game of the cup, though ultimately losing, still involved an awful lot of winning.
ReplyDeleteActually, it came right after our best player demanded a trade out of town. The other rats saw that the ship was sinking and bailed. If Pronger stays, I bet most of those other guys stay, too.
omark is playing on a line with harju and oilers 2005 draftpick fredrik petterson
How is Freddie playing these days? I remember him for a season or so with the Hitmen, thought he looked pretty good, then he bailed for Sweden and nary a peep since.
Again, leave him in the Ahl for a year. Err on the side of caution. You cannot destroy a prospect by leaving him in the minors a bit too long, but bringing him up too early could hurt development. See Gagner, Sam.
ReplyDeletestriatic, did you use the phrases Oklahoma City and bombing in the same post? Doesn't bode well for our AHL Karma. ;)
ReplyDeleteGood day.
ReplyDeleteTeam Dean: ...You cannot destroy a prospect by leaving him in the minors a bit too long, but bringing him up too early could hurt development. See Gagner, Sam.
Oh good grief.
Sam Gagner's development is coming along very nicely. The kid will finally be able to legally drink alcohol in the U.S. next season and he's already a "real NHLer".
His 18 & 19 year old BIG brain got on the job training, directly applicable to the NHL game. I think he learned a helluva lot more from playing for MacT and co. than from anything the OHL could have thrown at him. And because of this, he should reach prime performance levels much sooner than if he had just started his NHL "at bats". Of course, he could reach UFA status sooner, too. meh - Build a good team and lock him up or it's all irrelevant anyway.
Now... MacTavish was a line matching artist, while Quinn, when not aimlessly rolling along, looks to have all the finesse and instincts of a house painter in comparison. Shelter was a fleeting thing in 09-10, and unless Renney starts running the bench, it will be again in 10-11. This concerns me, somewhat.
That said... Jordan Eberle also has a very BIG brain. He'll be 20 at the start of next season, so his UFA clock is ticking regardless. He's had some games in each of the last 2 AHL seasons and he'll be training and practicing with Team Canada for the next few weeks. If he makes the opening roster, he'll have earned it.
L8r
Louise