In the EJ today Jim Matheson mentioned a Finnish goaltender: Jussi Rynnas. He's 6.05 and 205, and Matty says the Oilers have interest in him. He's playing for his town team in the SM-Liiga and sported a .929 SP this season (#1 in the league). The Oilers aren't the only team in need of goaltending, and there are certainly other teams scouting him.
It is encouraging to know the club is looking to address weakness, and one hopes this goalie is both worth the price he'll cost and that he'll continue a long tradition of quality Finns landing in Edmonton.
Would he be available via the UFA route a la Fabian Brunnstrom? Or do you mean the Oilers are looking at expending a pick on this guy? And what about the Khabbi contract?
ReplyDeleteLooks to have a decent butterfly.
I would imagine the Oilers to be one of the most likely destinations for a goalie like Rynnes.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers can make him as good an offer financially as anyone, and have one of the best opportunities for rapid advancement to the NHL for a goalie.
That said, if he doesn't want to play in Edmonton for some reason, you can't do anything about that.
ReplyDeleteBut on paper, it seems like a reasonable fit for a FA goalie looking to sign an ELC.
How far ahead do you think DesLauriers is with respect to Dubnyk? Sure Dubnyk has struggled this season, but then again, he has done better than many other players and he is a full 2 years younger than DesLauriers. I could see more point to resigning both DD and JDD and letting Pitton go after next year.
ReplyDeleteEveryone says this is the year to make the decision between DD and JDD but I don't think so. It's time to let go of guys in the organization like Pitton and Sorochan (don't make any QOs to them after their current contract expires). But to pick between Dubnyk and DesLauriers in this way I think wouldn't be useful.
Especially if a guy like Rynnes might be on the way.
Raven: The problem is that next year both JDDDD have to clear waivers. If Khabi is healthy, there's a three-headed monster lurking.
ReplyDeleteWhat about this:
ReplyDelete3rd round pick, Nikolai Khabibulin and Robert Nilsson to Philadelphia for Kimmo Timonen and Ian Laperriere?
Philly gets their #1 goalie and Edmonton gets a guy to free up either Sheldon Souray or Tom Gilbert for trade. Plus, with all those young RFA Dmen coming up, I'm sure Philly won't be needing Timonen for much longer.
Jagr-Gagner-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-XXX-XXX
XXX-Horcoff-XXX
Jones-LaPerriere-Stortini
Whitney-"Souray/Gilbert"
Timonen-Smid
Petry-Johnson
"Peckham/Plante/Chorney/Strudwick"
XXX
DesLauriers
Dubnyk
I include O'Sullivan because I consider him close to unmovable at his current price. Unless draft pedigree still means anything.
Waivers isn't a problem though, right? They'd still be on an two-way contract (right? or am I wrong) so even if someone claims them it won't be much different than if we didn't sign them at all.
ReplyDeletePlus, Dubnyk is clearly better than Pitton or Sorochan or Perugini, and Roy won't be ready for ages.
Crap, forgot about Penner (in my mind, I had already moved him in a package for Boston's pick).
ReplyDeleteJagr-Gagner-Hemsky
Penner-XXX-POS
XXX-Horcoff-XXX
Jones-LaPerriere-Stortini
raventalon40: I don't think anyone is going to trade for Khabibulin with the idea they can count on him. The Oilers could trade him (imo) but would have to sweeten the deal. Buddy's had a bad, bad year.
ReplyDeleteAs for waivers, it'll be a worry with regard to JDD and DD in the fall. There's also the matter of offering Dubnyk a two-way deal. Should Tambellini give him a one-way deal and then send him out, it might mean some teams stay away from the contract.
But that Dubnyk contract is going to be an interesting one to watch.
What could we give Philly that we don't need? If their strength is defense then we'd have to give them forwards somehow because Lord knows we don't have any goaltending to offer besides Khabbi!
ReplyDeleteI don't think those two teams are a match at all. If Philly had any brains at all they'd sign one of the myriad UFA goalies who are quality this summer.
ReplyDeleteBut the Flyers have been crazy in the G department forever.
LT: Couple of other goaltending thoughts as they relate to Khabibulin.
ReplyDelete1) If he's still injured and unable to start the season do the Oilers start w/JDD & DD as the tandem? Or do they trade one and get an inexpensive vet (this time)?
2) Or if he's healthy would they consider waiving him and sending him to Springfield instead of risking waivers on either JDD & DD. Certainly no one is going to pick him up on waivers.
Well with the way the Emery and Boucher experiment is going, I'd almost hang onto Michael Leighton for dear life if I were them. I can't but see Khabibulin being an upgrade for them.
ReplyDeleteHowever, injury and old age, if a problem for the Oilers, is clearly a problem for the Flyers as well.
If there were a deal for a goaltender somewhere else, where would you see it happening? Or do you think we are stuck with Khabibulin come rain or shine?
There are a large number of goalies who will be free agents this summer.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?Year=2010&Team=All&Position=G&FAType=2&FilterButton=APPLY+FILTER
Lots of options for Philly.
As for the Oilers, I like the Finn option. Low price, Tambellini doesn't go near the big dollar guys.
Ideally Khabibulin is forced to retire, but I do like the option that sends him to Okla City until 2012.
LT:
ReplyDeleteDeslauriers is also eligible for a two way contract, from my reading of Article 10.2.a.iii.
So I suppose it's not impossible they sign both Deslauriers and Dubnyk to 2 way deals, and then waiver and/or demote either or both in the fall
speeds: Interesting. Do you see any clearance by JDD? Feel Dubnyk might be better? I'm leaning toward DD but it would be nice if he could rip off about 5 more games like his last three.
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe that with the way the market was last summer, we have a bigger mess in net than anywhere else....
ReplyDeleteUnbelievably depressing.
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ReplyDeleteBut the Flyers have been crazy in the G department forever.
ReplyDeleteHomicidally so, for the latter portion of the eighties and most of the nineties.
Raven: Trying to sell a non-physical player of 2nd-3rd line in Robert Nilsson to Philly is like trying to sell books to a bunch of Huns. They don't want him, or his style of player.
ReplyDeleteRaven: Trying to sell a non-physical player of 2nd-3rd line in Robert Nilsson to Philly is like trying to sell books to a bunch of Huns. They don't want him, or his style of player.
ReplyDeleteI have two words for you, and one of them is "Joffrey".
(I'm broadening the definition of "word" somewhat.)
Deslauriers' contract status creates a tough situation for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe, but after the 2010/11 season Deslauriers is scheduled to become a UFA. So if you like the guy, and are convinced he's going to become a good NHL goaltender, you have to consider signing him to a longer term deal to lock him up, maybe 3 years?
If you aren't convinced he's going to be a quality goalie going forward, then a one year two way deal is probably your best bet. However, in that case, there's no advantage to signing JDD over a UFA unless you can get JDD for cheaper than an equivalent G, unlikley IMO given the state of the market.
There's a much better developmental argument for keeping Dubnyk, since he's under team control for 3 more seasons after this year.
I don't know what the overall plan is for management, if they are trying to make the playoffs next season or looking at more as a development year (where it's a bonus if you make the playoffs), but I think I would sign both guys to 2-way deals, try to sign a decent 1B UFA vet goalie this summer, and send one or both of Deslauriers and Dubnyk through waivers to the AHL, going with an NHL tandem something like:
Khabibulin
Mason/Ellis/Biron/etc.
Homicidally so, for the latter portion of the eighties and most of the nineties.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention the aughts.
speeds: Seems about right.
ReplyDelete@speeds:
ReplyDeleteBut we'd still have 3 goalies on the roster?!
I just want to say that somehow, seeing Kotalik scoring for the Flames makes me even sadder than to see Staios do it. I'll never listen to that song again.
ReplyDeleteraventalon:
ReplyDeleteKhabibulin + new goalie in NHL
Deslauriers + Dubnyk waived to AHL, barring an injury in camp.
I would guess that both Deslauriers and Dubnyk would clear waivers, but it's not a certainty I suppose.
Thinking about the goalie situation coming up next year... If the plan is a development year and another high pick in the '11 draft, is it such a bad thing running with JDDDD, especially if they are expecting to keep Khabi's contract active?
ReplyDeleteThey're dirt cheap, and a bit more time in the big leagues might make them tradeable commodities in the future, which I dont' think they really are yet. I know some people have written off Deslauriers, but I still think the jury is out on him. I'd like to see a breakout of his stats over his last 10 or 15 starts... he's made progress and will likely continue to do so, even if he never becomes a #1 NHL goalie.
A couple crappy goalies can help secure a higher pick next year, keep salary space clear for bigger moves when they come along (or when the team is ready to do something meaningful with the cap space) and it would be nice to know for sure what we have in those two. For all the talk of Tambellini's perpetual evaluation machine, I think those two are one place where (a) we could use more time to know (rather than assume and extrapolate) what we have, and (b) we have time on our side.
To add, I'm also not all that opposed to the 3 G system, particularly in the case of
ReplyDeleteEDM next season where you have an injury prone, 37 year old goalie at the top of the depth chart.
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ReplyDeleteHow many European goalies are available every year? How about NCAA free agents?
ReplyDeleteWhy are we worried about losing JDD or DD or waivers?
I hope Edmonton has a little more foresight than to go after a 1b type like Biron or Ellis. Why would a rebuilding club go after a stopgap?
Jussi Rynnas or Ilya Proskuryakov would be a step in the right direction but I suspect Tambellini doesn't have the brains and will go the stopgap route.
Tambellini can't even sign Riley Nash or Linus Omark. That pretty much says it all.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteI think you can make an argument either way, it depends what you're trying to do next season. But there's no reason you couldn't sign both an Ellis type and a Rynnes type.
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteTrue. But Edmonton should be looking for flexibility and 5 goalies under contract (Habby, JDD, DD, Ellis, Ellis) doesn't offer that.
If they can get a pick for either JDD or DD at the draft they should take it.
If the Oilers were able to dump all of Khabibulin, JDD and DD I wouldn't shed any tears...
ReplyDeleteJust a bit of a tangent, I was reading Matheson's article on Whitney in the Journal, and while we all had a negative reaction to the trade by and large the guy has been a relevation. His play has been excellent, he's still under thirty and signed for the long term. He seems to be embracing a leadership role and he's certainly playing the part. This turned out to be a surprisingly good move for the Oilers which have been few and far between so it seems worth mentioning.
ReplyDeletewhat's the mini keg hanging in the back of the net?
ReplyDeletealso, amazing use of pads to promote a website.
Lets say you are the Chicago Blackhawks management (wouldn't it be nice) and you know there is a goaltender with a dirt cheap contract whose young, fast, and gives up 4 goals or less in 80% of his starts. He did that while facing about 5 shots a game more than your tremendous defense gives up per game. You also know that he is going to give up three goals or less more than 50% of the time, and two or less 40% of the time and all that while playing with a crappy defense in front of him. He has also put up some decent shut out numbers and is scrappy and competitive.
ReplyDeleteOh wait. He is on waivers. It just keeps getting better and better.
My point is, JDD won't clear waivers. Don't believe me go look at each team in the NHL and tell me there are none with worse back up goaltenders than JDD. The questions isn't does he go, it is should we be concerned?
If we could actually sign Ellis ($2,500,000) or Mason ($3,000,000+) of course not. They'd make a difference now and in the long run. Budaj might be an interesting target ($1,500,000) for a solid #2. Biron based on his statistics is no better than JDD and older and more expensive but you guys seem to like him and he's probably only $1,200,000. So lets say any of them would displace JDD, exactly how many other contenders are there?
The question then becomes, would any of them even come here? So tell me, realistically, pipe dreams aside, what are the odds we can sign Dan Ellis who'd be the best combination of age, value and talent? How about any of the others? Who else is bidding?
If you can't get one of them or make a miraculous trade for Halak or Harding, and what are the odds, then you are talking about either JDD or DD or Rynnes. So a known quantity who might surprise on the upside but will hold you in the game in well over half his starts or a relative unknown quantity (DD) who has some good things but is clearly struggling to get to the next level, or a goalie who has never played a minute of NHL hockey (Rynnes).
I know the hatred of JDD has reached lunatic proportions here but really? Your 2010-2011 Oilers goaltenders Jussi Rynnes and Devan Dubnyk!
I think Khabibulin, JDD and DD sounds much better. I mean by all means sign Rynnes and send him to the AHL. Better yet rescue Andrew Salak from purgatory if you like Finnish Phenoms. Or both.
I don't really understand why so many people think Deslauriers isn't a good goalie. I don't know if he'll ever be a full fledged starter, but I very much expect him to have a career about as good as Mathieu Garon's and become a solid 1B option. His contract will be affordable, so I'm very comfortable in handing him the backup role.
ReplyDeleteThe question becomes Khabibulin. We'd all like to send him to Siberia, but who really knows what will happen. Lets for a minute assume that we can get rid of him. Do we roll with Deslauriers and Dubnyk? Though it shouldn't be plan A, I don't think it would be a bad thing either. Our lineup will only get younger next year, so there won't be too much pressure on them to get this team into the playoffs. At the same time, they'll both get a real chance to establish themselves as NHL goalies.
Each of them has looked pretty good since the deadline, when our defence managed to improve immensely with the additions of Whitney and Johnson and the addtion (by subtraction) of Grebshkov and Staios. If we tighten up that defence just a bit more, I think two big goalies with pretty good talent good prove quite a few people wrong.
I expect he'll go to Philadelphia; Philly has the motivation and the money (they can sink guys in the minors if Cap is an issue) and the team is far, far ahead of where the Oilers are.
ReplyDeleteOn a somewhat related note, here are some goalies who have gone from absolutely nothing (not expected to be solid backups, nevermind legitimate starters) to substantial success since the lockout:
ReplyDeleteNiklas Backstrom
Tim Thomas
Craig Anderson
Jaroslav Halak
Brian Elliot
Pekka Rinne
Jonas Hiller
Chris Mason
None of these goalies had draft pedigree (Halak and Elliot were taken 9th round 2003, Thomas, Hiller, and Backstrom signed out of Europe with little or no fanfare, Rinne was 8th round 2004, Mason was a 5th round pick long ago, and Anderson was a 3rd rounder.
The point one could take out of this is that draft pedigree is meaningless, but another way to look at it is that these goalies were given a chance and seized the opportunity. Most of them have made it later in their careers, so perhaps another take away point is that goalies tend to mature later.
Deslauriers is turning 26, and Dubnyk is turning 24. Perhaps neither will ever be a solid #1, but they both have #1 talent if they can improve their consistency. I'd much rather see them playing than Khabibulin - he has no long-term future with this club. There aren't any significant upgrades on the UFA market that fit into our core. All are too old to be of any long-term use, other than Dan Ellis and Antero Niitymaki, but I don't see either of them as being a huge upgrade. Harding in Minnesota hasn't been impressive, so basically unless we can land Carey Price, or another young stud like Jonathan Bernier or Tuuka Rask, I say we stick with J(DD)^2.
Tukka Rask makes me laugh every time. I know let's trade a blue chip goalie prospect for the 3rd string goalie in Boston that can't beat out a career backup and career AHLer for a start. I mean he had that one good year, and we all know goalies never have aberrant good years.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Boston learned their lesson well (*cough Jim Carrey), but JFJ wasn't paying attention. Ah where's a JFJ when you need one? And for all those touting Harding, he's struggled a bit, and how sure are you that he's any better than Toskala, and we all know Toskala put up some good backup numbers in San Jose.
The knock on JDD is that he's been given all the chances anyone could ask for at this point and the best he's ever put up are adequate replacement rate numbers. Beyond that his technique always looks suspect. When your good years are pedestrian and your form looks bad, it does not inspire confidence.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally be it in junior, the AHL or NHL JDD has never posted numbers which one would project forward as being a quality starting goaltender. At best his potential is to be be Jussi Markanen and I don't even think he's there yet.
linnaeus, JDD might not clear waivers, but that doesn't really matter. He's easy as hell to replace.
ReplyDeleteThe only teams that have a worse backup goaltender are Chicago (Huet), Columbus (Mason), Detroit (Osgood), Los Angeles (Ersberg) and Ottawa (Leclaire).
In those cases they either have a young guy in there (Columbus) or a young guy coming in (Los Angeles). Or they've committed money or picks to get the guy (Chicago, Ottawa).
Goalies of JDD's calibre right now are a dime a dozen... he's not much of a risk to be claimed, nor is he much of a loss if he does get claimed.
Peter, they might not have had draft pedigree but most of them had a pretty solid pro track record. Either that or they came out of nowhere in their 30's (does it make sense to hang onto a guy to see if he does that?)
ReplyDeleteBackstrom was dominating the Finnish Elite League in his mid-20's.
After his first rough year in the AHL (20 years old) Craig Anderson had an average AHL sv% of .920.
Halak dominated the AHL the moment he got there.
Brian Elliot posted sv% of .915 and .926 his first full years in the AHL.
Jonas Hiller was dominant in the Swiss league, and was excellent in his quick stint in the minors before making the NHL.
That leaves Chris Mason, Pekka Rinne and Tim Thomas who you could argue are comparables.
Mason didn't have his first dominant pro season until 26 years old (in the AHL). Tim Thomas was much the same (though his was a bit later on). Pekka Rinne was up and down and fairly inconsistant.
The problem is, JDD never had a dominant season in the AHL. He's missing that high level performance that all of these other guys had. So it's not draft pedigree that's important... but there's been nothing across JDD's career that suggests he'll be anything more than a 20 game backup.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteI would guess that if the Oilers sign an Ellis type and a Rynnas type, they'd probably let JDD go.
Even if they didn't, I don't see how that they gain much flexibility by having less goalies signed:
If, this summer, they have:
Khabibulin (3 years, NMC)
Ellis type (1 year, 2 mil)
JDD (1 year, two-way)
DD (1 year, two-way)
Rynnas (2 year ELC)
What's so inflexible about that? Maybe they can't do much within the year (maybe they can, who knows?), but they certainly have flexibility for future seasons.
linneaus:
ReplyDeleteI haven't gone through the teams recently, but last time I looked I got the impression that there aren't a ton of teams looking to spend ~2mil on a 2nd goalie this summer. I guess I should go through it again now, to get a better read.
But, if Edmonton offers ~2 mil and the backup spot, while telling the agent that they don't plan on playing Khabibulin nearly as much as a Luongo/Kiprusoff, I would imagine that's a pretty good situation for a goalie. Lots of starts, and as good money as could be expected elsewhere.
As others have pointed out - there is very little risk involved in walking away from JDD. JDD still has signifcant issues with technique and has not put up numbers at any level. So he has performed basically as expected (mediocre) and there is very little risk that he suddenly explodes into a top tier starter - he simply hasn’t been that at any time over his pro career. But I’ve been saying that for years and they keep wasting development time on him (there is an opportunity cost in keeping deadwood around)
ReplyDeleteWith goalies developing so late - I’ve come to the opinion that the UFA market plus draft and follow is the way to go. The Bulin signing was conceptually fine except for his age, injury status and length of term - lots of red flags - and other guys fit the bill much better. Drafting a quality kid like Roy in the later rounds also works and sometimes you hit a gem - but it takes years to find out. So we should take advantage of the UFA market when a good option is available - plus develop our young guys and give them a chance to see if they turn into more than just replacement value players.
JDD has had his chance and he is what he is - very replaceable for little money on the UFA market. So you move on and DD is the next guy in the development chain to get a shot next year. He’s shown some stuff a little earlier than JDD and does not have quite as many holes in his technique - but there are still questions about his upside. Frankly that’s the only reason to keep him over JDD - he may be a late bloomer - but JDD’s had his chance and it’s time to move on.
As for the young Finn - sure signing him and giving him the top spot in the AHL next season makes some sense. He fills a hole in the development chain that Pitton was supposed to be in - and he could get a chance at the NHL in a year or two.
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