Friday, March 12, 2010

Procurement 2010

The Edmonton Oilers reached an all-time low in the summer of 1993. They finished 92-93 with a 26-50-8 record and were rewarded with the 7th overall pick in the 1993 Entry Draft.

The Oilers had drafted higher than 7 only once (Paul Coffey, #6, 1980) and Barry Fraser's scouting staff delivered Jason Arnott with the pick.

In many ways the Arnott selection represented the beginning of a new day for the Oilers and their fans. Although the player ended up leaving town under less than ideal circumstances the club had rebounded by the time Arnott exited the scene.

The Oilers drafted a very nice group of players 1993-94 (Arnott, Vyborny, Satan, Smyth) but the heart of the 1990's cluster came via the trade route.

Here's a list of Glen Sather's major trades from January 1993 through summer 1995. I think you'll agree these deals had a major impact on the team's makeup through the end of that decade.
  • Esa Tikkanen for Doug Weight
  • Dave Manson for Bo Mironov, Mats Lindgren and a first round pick.
  • Craig MacTavish for Todd Marchant.
  • 1st rd picks in 1996 and 1997 for Curtis Joseph and Mike Grier.

Those trades had a major impact on the team's future. Glen Sather made some mistakes (Satan being an obvious one) but getting Weight and Joseph along with some important secondary players gave the young drafted Oilers a lot of sock when they came of age.

The other day Dennis King posted several questions on this blog that are worth discussing. Dennis said "when will Lowe make deals like Sharp and Versteeg for little in return? When's the last time our GM robbed someone like that? And where's our Kane? Our Toews? Do you see a Keith?"

I'd like to have a lash at the answers.

  1. When will Lowe make deals like Sharp and Versteeg for little in return? I don't think an organization can count on a steal like the Sharp trade, but his point is well taken that this club isn't exactly lapping the field when it comes to grey matter. The real problem is that the team just traded Visnovsky and Grebeshkov without getting a Joseph, Weight, Grier or Marchant. They got an established NHL defenseman and a draft pick that may or may not turn into anything but can't help for years. The rest of the roster players likely to be headed out of town this summer (Souray, Moreau, O'Sullivan) aren't quality veterans other NHL teams will trade their best prospects for in order to edge closer to a Stanley. Trading is an important way for teams to improve, but you need something of great value heading the other way in order to get a Doug Weight. Rangers wanted a Stanley, so they made the deal. Will someone trade a Doug Weight for Sheldon Souray? Andrew Cogliano?
  2. When's the last time our GM robbed someone like that? Years ago, probably Sather. Lowe's high times came at the 2006 deadline and they were trades in reverse to the ones we're discussing here. I'll say Tikkanen for Weight, but let's remember the Satan trade before we give too much credit to Slats.
  3. And where's our Kane? Our Toews? Do you see a Keith? This is an area I believe Oilers fans should be feeling pretty good about. Although Kane and Toews aren't usually unavailable unless you're picking first, the club does indeed have a nice group of young players (Gagner and MPS among them) and Hall/Seguin on the way. I don't think the draft table is a huge area of concern for the organization, especially if the ownership and upper management leave the scouting department alone. If Seguin>Hall then have some balls and make the pick. My guess is Magnficent Bastard has the stones.

So if we can agree that Steve Tambellini, Kevin Lowe and Pat Quinn (and whoever else is in the room when the decisions are made) aren't likely to make a Tikkanen for Weight deal anytime soon what does that mean for the amateur procurement department? Where are they going to get the extra bullets?

College free agents. Young European veterans from the Vyborny tree. Marginal NHL players buried under a deep depth chart at a specific position, players with room to grow. The Oilers need to be very active in the procurement of talent outside the draft and trade if they're serious about building a winner.

The Edmonton Oilers are in need of talent and they are burning daylight on some of this year's available talent.

46 comments:

  1. That is what pissed me off so much about the Grebs deal.

    There was one of the few assets that could return a good young prospect, and Tambellini blew it.

    Perhaps you needed to add something to Grebs to get a decent prospect back, but the RFA rights and 20 games of the puck moving Dman who led the Oilers in plus/minus is sure worth a hell of a lot more than 20 games of Dominic Moore.

    He said himself that he set the bar at a 2nd rounder and Poile met it.

    Poile probably still has sore legs from running to fax machine before someone with a brain would stop Tambellini.

    On the other hand getting a 3rd and a 20 game tryout for Aaron Johnson was brilliant.

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  2. Last robbery was the acquisition of Pronger.

    Robbery in today's NHL is easier if you have a pile of cap space and can target those in cap hell.

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  3. as for the list of free agents ... let me guess the oilers are lining up for the undersized ones ? so, unless they go after Testwuide, Riley or Butler. Scrivens as well. Avoid the undersized until we can clear the Oiler roster of the excess and figure out what to do with Omark.

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  4. The E.Cole-POS trade was an attempted robbery that ended up with the Oilers being handcuffed for 2 years of $3M cap hell ;)

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  5. I almost hope the Oilers finish last and lose the lottery, just so the Hall vs. Seguin decision is taken out of their hands.

    Almost.

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  6. Who did the Oilers trade away Shayne Corson for?

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  7. Riley Nash with 2 goals and an assist tonight. Season totals are now 26gp, 11-19-30.

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  8. Guys like Bruce and LT will remember in addition to t-shirts that said Republic of Alberta and bumper stickers that said Let The Eastern Bastards Freeze In The Dark. I recall another Alberta slogan from the post-boom days: Lord, Give Us Another Oil Boom, I Promise To Not Piss This One Away.

    Such is my mind-frame these days: all I want is one more Cup. I'm not saying we had a The Parade Will Be Held On The Usual Route mentality, but given the results since 1990, I think another Cup in Edmonton would not be taken for granted.

    Watching Stamkos skate for the Lightning right now, it seems to me a couple of high draft picks could really make a difference to this franchise. My only misgiving is that I'm not convinced the current management is the team to take advantage of potential franchise players.

    Just one more oil boom....

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  9. wikipedia -Corson was signed by the Blues as a free agent in 1995, and the Oilers received the rights to Curtis Joseph as compensation.

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  10. Hockey-reference:

    Curtis Joseph:

    August 4, 1995: Traded to Edmonton by St. Louis with the rights to Mike Grier for St. Louis' 1st round choices (previously acquired) in 1996 (Marty Reasoner) and 1997 (later traded to Los Angeles - Los Angeles selected Matt Zultek) Entry Drafts, August 4, 1995.

    I don't recall the exact transaction, shows to go how closely I was following them at the time. Bruce or someone will be by I'm sure, but there's some memory of Keenan being involved.

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  11. Ok, the Grier/Joseph/Corson thing went like this, if I recall correctly:

    Corson was signed as an RFA by the Blues in summer 1995. The Oilers were MORE than happy to let go of the player in question, as he had been stripped of the captaincy late in the strike-shortened 1995 season, setting a bar for leadership-douchebaggery that not even Ethan Moreau can match (even though he's trying).

    The two first-rounders were the compensation for Corson. As was common practice with RFA compensation in those days, the Oilers effectively traded the compensation back to the Blues for Grier and Joseph (somewhat similar to the "sign-and-trade" practices you see in the NBA).

    As such, the net effect was Shayne fucking Corson for Curtis Joseph and Mike Grier. It's effectively the polar opposite of the Satan for Millar and Moore abortion that occurred at the 1997 trade deadline (a big FU goes out to Ron Low for not having a use for a guy like Satan because he couldn't play on the checking line - worst trade in Oiler history that didn't involve oodles of cash, see Gretzky and Messier, or acquiring Joffrey Lupul).

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  12. @lowtide I pulled out the old hockey year book and confirmed the trade as indicated for Joseph and as you speculated, Keenan was the GM at the time. The yearbook also shows Cujo playing for the IHL Las Vegas in '95-96 which seems odd if the trade went down on Aug. 5.

    The point I do remember is Keenan claimed he was not a go-to goaltender having failed him in the playoffs that previous spring.

    His playoff record for '94-95 shows him with 7 GP 3-3 record, 24 goals allowed and 3.67 GAA.

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  13. That's one area where Burke is light years ahead of the other GMs. That trade deadline presser he gave should have been mandatory viewing for Tambellini.

    Some choice sentiments were, loves the free agents, specifically college but has gone after Euros as well. "College free agents are like finding a wallet", costs the team nothing (but the cash of the owner).

    Weaker teams like the Leafs (and Oilers one would think) have a much better chance, his pitch is we have a team in transition with lots of job openings if you can grab them.

    One of the key sellings points is letting potential undrafted free agents know that they will likely start in the AHL and be given every opportunity to succeed. They will face low pressure, and be taught how to be professionals and make it to the NHL.

    Burke pointed to Hanson and Bozak and how they sent them to the AHL on and off as needed. He also mentioned since he traded away a lot of picks and doesn't have a history of building through the draft he's going to continue being very aggressive with undrafted free agents. Said the only thing that bothers him with not drafting a lot is the scouting staff, whom he feels he's let down since they don't get to pick for some time and not many early picks.

    I don't understand why the Oilers aren't more aggressive on this front. Lerg was a good sign, although it doesn't seem to be working out. But you stockpile enough bullets and one shot should hit the mark eventually.

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  14. Is Torres for Brule potentially not such a deal?

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  15. Vande Velde with another goal tonight. Good player.

    Paper Designer: I don't think so. Brule looks like he can score goals and is a hitter but there's a long way to go before he can be counted on as a difference maker.

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  16. @uni, you mean this one?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGANLolukqg

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  17. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope that Petry is our Keith, with no facts or reasons to back it up, but just plain hope.

    And I think it's fair to hope that either Hall or Seguin will be our Kane or Toews..

    I'm honestly more worried about are all of our 2nd and 3rd round picks going to round out like theirs did?

    Because that helped them more than anything....

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  18. Robs from Montreal:

    1st round pick (Pacioretty) and Josh Gorges for Craig Rivet (God is he awful)

    Josef Balej, 2nd Pick for Alex Kovalev.

    Robs at Montreal:

    Jannee Niinimma for Mike Ribeiro

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  19. Petry's having a much better season but there are still some curious numbers.

    His team is 70-76 GF/GA at evens (I had to add up SH goals against by hand so may have made an error). Here are the D's plus minus numbers.

    Josepher +10
    Crandell +8
    Shelgren +7
    Buttery +4
    Petry +3
    Grassi +2
    Krug -3

    I'm certain (based on reports) he is playing big minutes and tough minutes, but it is also true that Petry is 22-years old. Keith was an NHL rookie, same age.

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  20. LT: How much is +3 at 22 on a league where the cream is gone in the AHL or NHL ?

    Can we compare with other dmans? (Gilbert for exemple)

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  21. I have a very good friend who is beginning to get his feet wet in journalism. He covered tonight's Moose/IceHogs game and since I know dg and others are Moose fans, perhaps I could entice a few people to click through and offer their feedback? I am sure it would mean a lot to an aspiring writer who is fresh off the high of getting into his first media scrum.

    Here is the link.

    My apologies of course if you feel like this is spam - I don't post nearly as often as I used to and don't want to come off as showing up just to promote OT topics.

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  22. Showerhead: Thanks for posting the link. I didn't know Yan Stastny was a Moose.

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  23. Gilbert at 22 played for a Wisconsin team that scored 76-62 at even strength (+14). Here's the blue.

    Gilbert +20
    Piskula +10
    Drewiske +8
    Klubertanz +5
    Likens +2
    Olinger +2
    Engle -4

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  24. Eberle scored his 49th tonight. He might be good enough to turn pro.

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  25. Eberle is going to do well in the AHL. There's only one place he wants to be. And that means as much as talent.

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  26. Tikkanen for Weight...

    In my mind (and more than likely it's all just in my mind)... the recent emphasis of the PvP system, and the reason Horcoff is/was valued is because of, as much as anyone, Esa Tikkanen.

    Out-score the other team's best.

    To get a Tikkanen-like return, we would have had to trade Horc before this contract. I wonder if the owner had any say there. Or if it was management. Was it for sure at the time a re-build was imminent and necessary?

    If we see no action in the other markets, is that a tell? Or are we putting too much stock in what-other-players-are-out-there against number of available contracts? If management is focused solely on the great white sperm whale of a first overall draft pick, is that a tell?
    Or, is there nothing more important than getting this one thing right, whatever low probability other options are out there?

    I think trade had better yield some value this summer to give me some confidence in the braintrust.

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  27. LT:

    Think its fair to say Petry is in the Gilbert range though? Is he reasonably our best defensive prospect in terms of upside? (ex: Anyone in the organization not including Whitney, Gilbert and Smid).

    Is it reasonable to hope that about 20 months Petry is making a push for an NHL roster spot?

    I haven't followed the guy a lot, but one of my biggest worries is that he's given (opposed to earning) a roster spot in 8 months.

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  28. Spoiler:

    Vic Ferrari had a GREAT post on it somewhere, but I think under the EIG this team had 100% full intentions of rebuilding, and that the next logical step in line was to deal Horcoff.

    Instead, Katz came in talking about spending to the cap, and we gave away Tyler Myers++ for Dustin Penner, signed Souray to his albatross, and resigned Horcoff to a longterm deal.

    I think Katz in the long-term is a good thing for this team, but the way the transition went down (Right down to him wanting to make "a big splash" with Hossa while we let Hejda and GlenX walk), hurt this team in the immediate short-term.

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  29. Agreed on the college players. They are a cheap way of getting players who have already matured into their bodies. Late on the hockey development may be the criticism, but they may become useful NHLers in the Gilbert/Higgins/Curry/etc. type of mold.

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  30. Maybe they could hold open tryouts throughout Europe every summer, which would give the Oilers a huge profile boost over there, which in turn might attract the odd gem.

    At first I was thinking the usual places like Sweden/Finland, then Igor Ulanov sprang to mind and all of a sudden I'm imagining I'm over in Smolensk or wherever and some 6'6" 237 pound giant appears...all raw talent and totally willing to learn how to play shutdown defence.

    Brought a tear to my eye.

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  31. Agree with Smarmy. The Pronger acquisition was an out-and-out robbery that should be mentioned forever when speaking of one-sided NHL trades.

    Two busts and a #3 Dman for one of the best players in the game at the time.

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  32. Agreed about Pronger.

    Great link to that "Burke interview". That was one of the funniest things I've seen all week.

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  33. PDO: I believe the best D prospect in the system is Theo Peckham. Petry is having a fine season and we're told he's more physical than Chorney (not hard to imagine) but we can all agree that the step from junior and college to the AHL is a steep one.

    I'd think he'll play most of his first pro season in the AHL.

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  35. Oilman came halfway to disproving my idea that we didn't rob anyone - and good on him because it's the closest he came to getting me;) - because we picked up a guy like Hedja for nothing and we traded a guy on the downswing in Tarnstrom for a guy on the upswing like Glencross.

    But both those guys walked as FA's when they could've been affordable and we know they could've been usedful so there's no point in making a robbery if you can't keep the loot.

    My whole point is there's more to a rebuild than pointing at a time and breathlessly shouting, "we want to be like them."!

    If we're gonna have a Keith or Seabrooke then it's gonna have to be some of either 5-6-77.

    And so on and so forth.

    The draft will give us some hope that we can duplicate other pieces on the Hawks roster but unless we're gonna be bad for a lot of years in a row like the Pens were then along the way we're gonna have to haul real players out of mid rounds like the Avs used to do or late rounds like the Wings used to do OR we are gonna have to pull off a couple of steals.

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  36. Showerhead: Thanks for posting the link. I didn't know Yan Stastny was a Moose.

    Yeah, he was traded to Vancouver for a bucket of ice shavings or something at the deadline.

    And this is slightly unrelated, but had I been online when (who?) was asking about Hitmen to watch, I'd have recommended draft-eligible Matt MacKenzie. My vantage point in the fifth row isn't optimal for scouting even if I were so inclined (I'm generally not), but he has rounded out into an effective WHL blueliner who plays in all three situations. Tried to find a recent scouting service ranking, but I don't know where you find these things. But if the Hitmen are coming to your town in the playoffs (it'll be Moose Jaw or Swift Current in the first round), give him a gander.

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  37. McKenzie was 85th in the CSB mid-term rankings. That's North American skaters, which in an average year makes him a late 4th round pick.

    Having said that he's listed at 6.02, 220 so could go higher.

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  38. Does trading Bonsignore, Kelly, and Mush for Roman Hamrlik count as a fleecing?

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  39. Dan McGillis flipped for Niinimaa was another big one. I think those might have been the last two trades Slats really hit out of the park.

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  40. @LT: I figured it would be 3rd or 4th round. He had a really good stretch of games through Jan-Feb, culminating in getting the "C" for a game when co-captains Michael Stone and Ian Schultz were both injured, over alternates Brandon Kozun and Joel Broda, which really surprised me.

    I expect by the time the draft rolls around, he'll have moved up a bit, though a lot of that will probably hinge on the playoffs. If he's consistently solid through a deep run, that will probably play in his favour.

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  41. He covered tonight's Moose/IceHogs game and since I know dg and others are Moose fans, perhaps I could entice a few people to click through and offer their feedback?

    I was at said game, but remember maybe 25% of the game's action.

    Thank you for my birthday present, Mr. Kokanee.

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  42. Schitzo: YES and yes.

    Being as how I was so young during the glory years the team's from '97 onward feel like my clubs because I saw so many of those games. The Oilers looked up-and-coming in '97 but got off to a poor start in '98 and then you had the Hammer and Guerin trades and we got back on track.

    I still remember what was maybe Hammer's first game as an Oiler against Cuntreal when he actually got cramps because he wasn't used to such an uptempo game.

    And I believe the Arnott/Guerin deal happened after a Sun afternoon home loss to the Kings and then we were off to the races.

    Love that '98 team to death.

    OM: Yes halfway; that's pretty good all things considering:)

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  43. I still remember what was maybe Hammer's first game as an Oiler against Cuntreal when he actually got cramps because he wasn't used to such an uptempo game.

    That was the first game I ever attended in person. Oilers up 3-1 after two periods and nothing but sad faces in MTL jerseys buying beer in the intermission. The wheels absolutely fell off for the Oilers in the 3rd culminated by a very poor Mironov pinch that led to the MTL go-ahead goal by Koivu on a breakaway I believe and Jocelyn Thibeault outplaying Cujo. It was a long ride back to Fort Mac with my MTL fan buddy who went with me.

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  44. I am not happy with that as well. maybe you guys can be an advice about this stuff. This is quite confusing and frustrating too! Thank you in advance!

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