There's a little bit of the hot dog in Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson. Kind of Jaromir Jagr meets Les McKeown. That will no doubt be a side story in the career of MPS as an Edmonton Oiler, following in the footsteps of items like "why does MacT hate Schremp?" and "what CAN Tom Poti eat for crying out loud?" in the years to come.
We're not concerned with that right now. What we're looking for is a reasonable 18-year old comparable from the Swedish Elite League that might help us project this kid into the future. With the season now done the young man ranks "in the range" with some well known SEL teenagers over the years.
- Markus Naslund 39gp, 22-18-40 (1.03)
- Tomas Sandstrom 36gp, 23-14-37 (1.03)
- Daniel Sedin 50gp, 21-21-42 (.840)
- Henrik Sedin 49gp, 12-22-34 (.694)
- Peter Forsberg 39gp, 9-18-27 (.692)
- Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson 49gp, 12-17-29 (.592)
- Nicklas Backstrom 46gp, 10-16-26 (.565)
- Anze Kopitar 47gp, 8-12-20 (.426)
Which player do I like best as a comp? Tomas Sandstrom. Why? Both have/had size and skill, both were well known as teenagers (Sandstrom had a couple of strong WJC's) and both counted foot speed and shooting ability as their calling cards as young men. Both were/are aggressive and capable of playing a physical game. As for the difference in their scoring totals and points-per-game (above), Sandstrom played on a team that scored 3.97 goals per game (143 in 36gp) and MPS plays on a team scoring 2.53 goals per game (137 in 54gp).
This kid could be the worst player on the list above by quite a bit and still be a helluva player.
I have great, great hope for Magnum PS.
ReplyDeleteBut I also worry that he won't bring offense at the NHL level.
Thank You!
ReplyDeleteNow see lander!
He's doing well, but I keep thinking exactly what LT has been thinking; does he have another gear.
ReplyDeleteIt'd be awesome if he's been tracking on 2nd this season, and shifts it up a notch next season.
Thank You!
ReplyDeleteNow see lander!
But I also worry that he won't bring offense at the NHL level.
Guy tracks better than all these and still people say.
He is racking it up against men in a superior league not average competition like major junior.
On a completely unrelated note, I highly recommend checking out Lady Gaga's new video. It's like if Tarantino directed Thelma and Louise, only with more lesbians.
ReplyDeleteNOT WORK SAFE
I can't wait to see him skate with NHLers, just to see if all they hype about his speed is warranted. The way guys like McGuire and McKenzie gush about his wheels has given me this mental picture of the league creating a new rule just for MPS, whereby he's only allowed to skate backwards, just to make it fair for everyone else.
ReplyDelete+14 is a nice marker too, although it might also be an indicator how well he's being sheltered.
ReplyDeleteJust a quick note on seeing the Knights the other day - they're in 2nd, Sarnia's in 10th, 2nd last game of the season, nothing on the line. Think all-star, non-contact game. Within that, your man Kadri stands out well, fast, creative, good passer, runs the PP from the blue. But he's a bit of an enigma too - inside 6' he whiffed on two glorious setups, and in the physically uncontested contest that it was, he got a guy in his sights during the first and it was almost scary - he was locked onto it 5 seconds before it happened and you knew he was going to demolish the guy, pure autopilot. 20s later he gets the make-up high-stick from buddy's teammate, and crumples behind his net, hoping against hope that his cheek will blossom red and yield a 5min penalty. No dice; he gets up and takes his place on the PP 10s after the puck drop. Could all mean a lot of nothing, of course, but at a glance he has arrows pointed in many directions.
I am still surprised he fell as far as he did, and I think if you re-do the draft this summer he goes higher. The concern was scoring and he has been scoring at a pretty decent clip in the SEL.
ReplyDeleteIf he doesn't have an extra gear after this, he'll be a decent NHL player. It isn't unexpected for a big kid like him to progress later than most, though. He really might turn into something special--he has all the tools.
The kid is definitely my favorite Oilers' draft pick since Hemsky.
Looking back at last summer's draft, as much as I like Scott Glennie I think it's pretty clear he was a bit of a reach at #8. Toss in the Cowen selection and I think MPS should have been gone at least two spots before Edmonton made their pick.
ReplyDeleteHe's a very nice player to have, hands down the best prospect in the system.
Agree. I have heard that he's getting a very large proportion of his starts in the offensive zone. It probably contributes somewhat to his high +/-. Despite any potential drawbacks though it's obvious the kid can bring offense at the pro level and that probably bodes well for his success at the NHL level.
ReplyDeleteWhat are people's thoughts on where he plays next year? I think with MPS that he can still benefit from playing in the SEL another year and then maybe assessing whether he goes to the AHL or NHL directly the season after.
I finished a post this morning about Paajarvi LT, and whether the Oilers might sign him and bring him over for thee rest of the season if Timra's season ends on Saturday.
ReplyDeleteTo paraphrase, there's not a lot of downside to bringing him over, provided he doesn't need to clear waivers to play in the NHL or AHL. It would seem like a good opportunity to assess how h'es developed in the last year, on NA ice, etc.
LT: Nice start with the Poti joke and fuck is that ever an impressive list.
ReplyDeleteAnd while I don't want to threadjack here did anyone else see this?
http://www.faceoff.com/hockey/columnists/story.html?id=de92a89f-60e2-420e-b72f-f4e7799ffea4
Here's what I want to discuss:
__Tambellini took all this in as he sat alongside ex-Oilers head coach Craig MacTavish, who was seen feverishly taking notes when the pair was briefly captured on camera during the broadcast__
I believe Denis Savard stayed on and was in good humour with the Hawks after he was fired but are there any other recent examples of coaches being fired and then keep working for their old club and they seem to be fine with it? I noticed that on Trade Deadline Day MacT spoke of the Oilers almost in a way that he was still part of the org and I didn't know if he was still being loyal or what.
He had a year left on his contract when they canned him right? Or is he doing contract work for the Oilers with this scouting just as perhaps he did for Team Canada at the Olys?
I am starting to think that Dustin Penner be damned Craig MacTavish could be the bench boss again come this October.
He's a very nice player to have, hands down the best prospect in the system
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with that but its interesting to note that The Hockey News future watch had him ranked at #11, 5 spots below Jordan Eberle. Now, the writers for that magazine ain't any great shakes but that ranking is based on scouts and GMs from around the league. Nice to have 2 of the top 11 for sure. Here's the top 11, if I recall:
1. Pietrangelo
2. Markstrom
3. Ekman-Larsson
4. John Carlson
5. Hodgson
6. Eberle
7. Filatov
8. Colin Wilson
9. Sbisa
10. Schenn
11. MPS
Alice-I'm confused. Why is Kadri "our" man? He was picked by the Leafs, no?
ReplyDeleteKT: I think that list speaks for itself.
ReplyDeleteThese are the same guys who had Rob Schremp has the 16th-best prospect in the world at one point, and at another had Jani Rita as the 13th-best.
I still buy THN's Future Watch, but they don't have a clue. I hate sounding so arrogant about it but they really don't.
That is a nice list, LT, but I wonder how you determined it. Surely there are other 18-year-old guys who put up decent numbers but later didn't amount to a whole lot.
ReplyDeleteI remember doing something similar with Milan Lucic a while back where I specifically targeted a few guys he reminded me of and compared him only to them, and of course I got raked over the coals pretty hard for the exclusivity of the comparison group. I personally don't mind the method of "how does the would-be elite compare to The Elite?" but would be interested in your comments as to where some lesser players might fit on that list.
Though I should also admit I've been underrating Eberle to this point.
ReplyDeleteDennis, Tencer tweeted 11hrs ago...
ReplyDeleteInteresting note from @rjmackinnon that Steve Tambellini and Craig MacTavish took in tonight's Hall v. Seguin matchup...together.
MacTavish is still under contract with the Oilers...so if he's scouting in any official capacity, he's doing it for Edmonton.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/league_total.php?season=%&leagueid=Elitserien&nation=&sort=u19
ReplyDeleteBTW, here's a link to Elite Prospects which has the full list of 18-year (and younger) seasons in the SEL ranked by points.
Other than the players mentioned in the blog post, there are some less accomplished players who compare statistically at the same age. So, his numbers are no guarantee of NHL success.
However, working in MPS's favour is that scoring has gone down somewhat in the SEL from when a lot of the other players were in the league.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/league_total.php?season=%&leagueid=Elitserien&nation=&sort=u18
And this link is for those of you preparing for Rebuild: The Sequel next year. The name to note being Adam Larsson, and where he ranks as a defenceman.
Lebski,
ReplyDelete'your man' ~= 'buddy' - it's not particular. Absorbed from my in-laws, who have no idea what a Gradge is btw
My read is that MacT is still, albeit informally, part of the organization. I've seen no mention of Prendergast being with the Boys on the scouting trip. Likely that he's on the way out.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a possibility that MacT becomes part of the Braintrust and the Master Plan.
One niggle I have is that there seemed to be a disconnect at times between Lowe and MacT (e.g. Reasoner).
MacT has the brain power and experience and Katz is reputed to build strong management teams for his enterprises. Maybe this will become the Detroit model LT has spoken of or Chicago which Lowe referred to in his Gregor interview.
As I've mentioned before Lowe seems more like his former self these days.
Alice:
ReplyDeleteThe picture you're painting there suggests to me that Kadri is going to be a Corey Perry type without the ability to finish.
For the leaves, he's perfect.
JW:
ReplyDeleteI agree that there isn't a knowledgeable propspect guy among the bunch at that publication but they simply asked 25? NHL scouts to submit their lists and compiled the stats. This wasn't Adam Proteau or Ken Campbell.
Unless I'm misunderstanding and you are saying the scouts that THN traditionally uses are clueless.
So if MacT is still "under contract" (i.e. he wasn't paid out and told never to show his face around here again) this is one more indication that he'll be back with the org.
ReplyDeleteMacT has deep roots here and I hope the rumours about his ill health were just bad information.
It could get quite crowded at the top, as Quinn and Renney are here, but this could be the Katz style.
After all there's a lot of work to do.
'your man' is a common saying in Ireland, that's where i picked up the lingo, buddy I talk to over there says it all of the time
ReplyDeleteaccording to Pierre MPS would be an elite first line player in the NHl and the Oilers best forward RIGHT NOW.
Crosby.
Schitzo - I've stolen your bit about McGuire and his monster and out it on my site header. Hope you don't mind. If you do let me know and I'll remove it.
I'll make sure thta you get a % of royalties and also that McGuire's lawyer gets your name if he comes calling. ;)
Alice, I too am quite happy that Kadri is Burke's man.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be great if Tambellini is grooming MacT for the GM job?
ReplyDeleteIn regard to posting only the high end 18-year olds, I think we can agree it isn't terribly beneficial to post a bunch of failures. We can agree there is a chance that this kid will bust but it is also true that he's tracking with some impressive names.
ReplyDeleteSo while 10 guys who didn't do much might give us a more complete view, I trust everyone reading this blog is bright enough to know this is a marathon and not a sprint and the chances of failure are more than zero.
Honestly, I think he's a pretty impressive hockey player. The SEL is a strong league (Gabe Desjardins recently suggesting the league is edging closer to and possibly beyond the KHL) and he's playing in a bit of a deadball era currently.
Good arrows.
One final comment and then I'll shut up.
ReplyDeleteLT, would you and say Speeds be up for consulting jobs with the org?
And since Ribs is here, thanks for the call-out as a 'dude'
ReplyDelete"You're not wasting your time on that bloody Lowetide again,"
"Look, it says here I'm a Dude. How do you like that? And down here, - again! This is great."
"Well, 'dude', don't forget to set the coffee before you come up. And if your little monster finds his way onto my side of the bed, you won't just be reading about cheap head shots, understand?"
"A concussion? You wouldn't..."
"More like a soft tissue injury. You and your pal will be out of commission for the rest of the season. Maybe the playoffs too, "
[.]
Where does Desjardins put SEL vs AHL, I know I saw it here some months back, was pretty close, wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteThe AHL will be important for him regardless, needs some time to adjust to the NA rink size. Or so I'd imagine - maybe that's not as big an issue as we sometimes think.
?
I can't speak for LT, but I know I would love to do something like that. I would very interested to gain some insight into exactly how management of an NHL team works, what exactly they look at in making player personnel moves, etc.
ReplyDeleteKT: It's less a matter of who is doing it than the track record as a publication. I remember listening to Brian Burke talk about how out to lunch their track record is and I basically agree with him.
ReplyDeleteAt a guess, the problem is that they're having a lot of scouts rank players now in the AHL and elsewhere (in different organziations) who they haven't seen since junior, and thus the rankings always seem to reflect where those players were drafted more than their accomplishments to date.
I wouldn't put much stock in anything Pierre "Monster-Loving" McGuire says. Bob McKenzie I'd pay a little more heed to.
ReplyDeleteMPS and Lander would be well served to remain another year at Timra, until they are absolutely crushing that league, or at least have another season of experience under their belts.
Other than that, bringing both over for a cup of coffee or a whirly dirl in the AHL after the SEL season comes to an end wouldn't be a bad idea.
On TSN MacTavish fully said that he's got deep roots in Edmonton, and he still feels very strong loyalty for them, so I think he is just loyal to the organization more than anything else. If they asked him to step into a role there's little doubt that he'd accept.
Oh no. I can feel my hopes rising.
ReplyDeleteDamn you LT.
Hey, I'm lazy as hell but I'm curious... how do the comparisons line up with past players in Anton Landers current age and production rate over the years?
ReplyDelete"LT, would you and say Speeds be up for consulting jobs with the org?"
ReplyDeleteLT is already on the payroll. He did most of the legwork on the Horcoff deal.
Oh yah, and great post LT, makes me positively giddy about MPS is what it does.
ReplyDeletePut me on the side that wants MPS overseas for one more year. If we're following the CHI/PIT model, no need to bring our young players in early at the expense of a good year of development. Conversely, unless he REALLY blows everyone away, I want Eberle to spend a year in the AHL too.
Schitzo - I've stolen your bit about McGuire and his monster and out it on my site header. Hope you don't mind. If you do let me know and I'll remove it.
ReplyDeleteThis is the closest I'll ever get to being internet famous. What a great day.
In regard to posting only the high end 18-year olds, I think we can agree it isn't terribly beneficial to post a bunch of failures.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying this to tell you how to write your posts - I hate it when people do that to me - but the busts are instructive too, I think, in terms of understanding what his number tells us. My sense of the SEL is that 18 year olds rarely do anything there, so this is a postive.
It's not the SEL but, for example, Jani Rita did nothing in SM-Liiga in his age 18 season.
LT is already on the payroll. He did most of the legwork on the Horcoff deal.
ReplyDeleteOh you're just pissy because this means that your recommendations of a massive contract for Andrew "Shooting Percentage" Cogliano will be ignored.
uni - when it comes to anything I say about McGuire put in one of those little Biafran bookie things to denote my skepticism
ReplyDeletein the wjc he also said that if he were an Oilers' ticketholder and MPS and Eberle weren't in the lineup next year he's turn in his seats.
He's a tool and I've saddened that he was not hired by the Wild last summer to be GM.
You have to admire Traktor's perserverance. It's to the point where he set up Highetide just to prove his point.
ReplyDeleteOf course by his standards Crosby's not a first line centre for Team Canada.
Crosby.
ReplyDeleteWe can agree there is a chance that this kid will bust but it is also true that he's tracking with some impressive names.
ReplyDeleteThanks. This was my thinking in the Lucic example.
I do agree with MC79 that the more thorough approach would be to include some guys who did impress at 18 but later fell off the rails. But as a "first blush" method, this one shows MPS at least belongs in the conversation with some pretty terrific players.
Hightide doesn't have enough grammar and punctuation errors to be mine.
ReplyDeleteAnd Crosby isn't a 1st line center until he shuts down Joe Thornton in the playoffs.
Man, if I was a judge sitting and listening to you make submissions Trak, it would drive me nuts. Judges will frequently, during the course of oral argument, poke and prod at the argument that you're giving them. Responses that basically amount to ignoring the question and saying "Look at the problems with his argument"? They're for losers.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to do a more thorough review of this question to see if my instinct is right. I just looked at Sundin - he's well below MPS's mark.
ReplyDeleteThis is broad strokes stuff but I'm not sure we'll find a lot of busts at MPS' level of offence.
Oh Traktor, you never continue to amaze.
ReplyDeleteIn all fairness to LT, he had no idea that Lowe would go out and get drunk with Horc's agent the night before the signing.
ReplyDeleteAcumen:
ReplyDeleteLook at the first link in my previous post. Lander's 43rd on the list in points.
41. Fredrik Bremberg 1991-1992 39 9 6 15
42. Markus Åkerblom 1987-1988 37 6 9 15
43. Anton Lander 2009-2010 48 6 9 15
44. Alexander Steen 2002-2003 45 5 10 15
45. Loui Eriksson 2003-2004 46 8 5 13
The names surrouding him are interesting, representing a complete of range of potential outcomes for Lander.
As an interesting note, Fredrik Bemberg actually had a cup of coffee with the Oilers back in 98-99 and had good numbers in the AHL as an older player but either didn't want to stick around in the minors or wasn't considered NHL caliber.
I think a criteria would be draft pedigree as well. You might have outliers that never did have NHL speed, size, or just simply had a fortuitous situation, caught lightning in a bottle but never was considered a top prospect.
ReplyDeleteRalph Intranuovo, Peter Sarno, Peter White types.
I remember seeing Intraneuvo play as a junior with the Soo. Man could he skate.
ReplyDeleteThat's a picture of a hockey player? I thought it was a race car.
ReplyDeleteSaw MPS at the WJrs so here's my attempt at a scouting report:
ReplyDeleteMPS - He's dynamic, gets you on the edge of your seat when he winds it up, but seemed prone to disappear some shifts if he didn't get the puck. It looks like he needs some room to wind it up. He's very fast straight down the wing and while driving wide, but didn't look exceptionally quick or shifty in tight spaces. He was more likely to protect the puck with his long reach and drive to the net wide rather than try a fancy move to beat a defender.
The junior defenders learned to back right in when he got it wound up so he created alot of space for himself and teamates just with his straight line speed. I'm afraid in the NHL his space and time to wind it up will be limited so his scoring chances may suffer becasue of this.
He surprised with his physical play. He wasn't running around crushing guys, but he didn't shy away from the corners, protected the puck very well, and drove the net hard. He looked bigger than he's listed and was very hard to knock off the puck. Keep in mind this was Junior hockey.
It was odd the Swedish coach didn't play MPS more, especially when they were down. Of course Pierre noted this as well.
IMHO He'll be exciting to watch, and will create space for his linemates but wether that translates to pucks in the net is debatable. Finding him the right centerman will likely have a big effect on his numbers.
As for Lander: Also saw him at the WJrs.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we should be paying much attention to his offensive numbers. His cieling of a quality 3rd line C/PKer is probably bang on. He's a two way player. He was often the last forward out of his end.
He skates well, but no where near MPS speed. His game was little smart plays and good positioning at both ends. I didn't notice his faceoff prowess, but have read before that he's good in that area.
In the offensive end he showed good hands and a nose for the net. He was opportunistic on loose pucks on a few goals.
He didn't appear to be overly physical, but didn't shy away from it either.
He was very strong on the Swede's 1st unit PK. Active stick, not running around, good positionally. He didn't appear to be out of place on the 2nd unit PP either.
IMHO his cieling is a Marty Reasoner in his prime which is exactly what this team has needed for a while.
I never understood why Reasoner didn't end up as a 30 goal scorer.
ReplyDelete"I never understood why Reasoner didn't end up as a 30 goal scorer."
ReplyDeleteJFJ and puck luck. Plus we never picked up a veteran C to play behind Reasoner.
Traktor, there are 87 other keys on that piano you're playing.
ReplyDeleteBrownlee on Stauffer's radio show right now. Some interesting observations he's sharing. (Corey Graham is hosting.)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletecare to elaborate?
ReplyDeletePsyche: Got a rundown on what Brownlee said for a guy sitting in the waiting room of a doctor's office?
ReplyDeleteR O: While Traktor is consistent on his dislike of Horcoff, he's not at the Ray Finkle level of obsession that it would take to start the Highetide blog. My guess is that's the handiwork of HF contributor and noted Blogger sociopath Dashing Silver Fox (aka On The Bench, Fake Craig MacTavish, and, as Lowetide himself said, only God-knows-what-else).
Well I for one am sweating profusely, and with all the cheese-dust already in the air, and - shit - Pierre's caught another mouse, I think it's time to get the hell back upstairs.
ReplyDeleteHe takes a long time killing them, I think.
What is Brownlee saying?
ReplyDeleteHas there ever been a stranger comparison for and Oilers prospect than MPS to Les McKeown/Jaromir Jagr? Is it really accurate to give MPS a comparison to a mulleted, bi-sexual, alcoholic?
ReplyDeleteOkay, my only real worry about MPS are his season splits. Didn't he score most of his goals in a 20 game span and then dry up recently?
ReplyDeleteTo me that suggests that his boxcar numbers might be -I reapeat might be- inflated. Indeed, we're going on a less than 50 game sample size, too.
I know, all signs are pointing in the right direction, but am still holding out some skepticism about his offense based on the splits.
Ugh, now I can't find the splits and am probably wrong.
ReplyDeleteKris: I can't find them anymore either but I remember that was his issue last season where he had about half of his points in the first quarter of the season and three quarters in the first half.
ReplyDeleteHe definitely slowed down this season as well. I wonder if it's a conditioning or a focus issue.
"MPS a comparison to a mulleted, bi-sexual, alcoholic?"
ReplyDeleteStop dissing Jagr.
..Or I keeeeel you.
ReplyDeleteOne can only dream that someone like LT could one day be in charge of the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteI still don't think MPS will be much of a finisher at the NHL level.
ReplyDeleteAt the 2009 WJC ( http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/172/IHM1720SWE_83_6_0.pdf ) and the 2010 WJC ( http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/205/IHM2050SWE_83_6_0.pdf ), MPS led the SWE team in SOG, but only scored 2 and 3 goals respectively.
On his Elitserien team this year, he had almost 50% more SOG ( http://stats.swehockey.se/ > Elitserien > Players by Team > Timra IK ) than the next closest shooter on his team and finished tied for 3rd on the team in goals. Of course, the plus to this is that his offense this year doesn't seem to be driven by unsustainable percentages.
From what I have seen at the WJC and highlights of his Elitserien games, MPS generates most of his offense off the rush at EV, but isn't very effective on the PP (1 PPG this year) or on the cycle.
I think fans expecting him to come over and be a big scorer will be disappointed, but I think it's very likely that he will turn into a solid two-way EV player in the Dvorak mold with a 30G-30A ceiling, which we all know this team could desperately use.
Boondock,
ReplyDeleteIf he can forecheck half as well as Dvorak, I'll be very very happy.
But I too am not expecting any great shakes as a finisher at the NHL level. But he's still young and ya never know (see Kopitar, Anze).
Reasoner didn't wind up a 30-goal man because of the knee injury. He'd finally found the extra gear right before then, and it all came crashing down.
ReplyDeleteIf he can forecheck half as well as Dvorak, I'll be very very happy.
ReplyDeleteYeah, when I mention Dvorak as a comparable, I mean it as a compliment for sure. Some might bristle at the suggestion, but I think that would be a great outcome for MPS.
I love LT but his views on Lupul have me thinking he's just fine where he is;)
ReplyDeleteBiafran bookie things
ReplyDeleteI had those once.
Penicillin cleared it right up.
Dvorak as a comparable to MPS, to me, would be a bottom-end scenario for the player in question.
ReplyDeleteWhich means the kid is one heck of a prospect. Dvorak is no slouch of a hockey player, and if that's your bottom end, you've got some serious "upside".