There was a time when an Oiler fan could name 15 "heart of the order" players worth keeping (they traded them all eventually) but the current team is a tad shy of the dynasty.
There are 5 names I'd keep for the 10-11 heart of the order list and there's not really a long shot in the bunch. These aren't rookies and these aren't old dogs, these are players who have performed well (if inconsistently) in this season. The Edmonton Oilers have significant talent, even in this very dark hour in franchise history. We know there are good things on the way, but it is important to remember the names of the men who should be here doing the heavy lifting this fall.
- Dustin Penner. Watching last night's game it is pretty obvious the big man is both worn down and indifferent. However, Penner's output in a trying season is impressive when placed against the rest of the roster. Dustin Penner should be this team's MVP and I can't think of a good reason to trade him.
- Ales Hemsky. The main reason he gets mentioned in trade talks is the lack of an 80 point season. I'd point out that Hemsky was very close to that number the last time this team was any good and that he was on pace before injury this season. Underrated player by his own fanbase, he remains the last player I'd send away (although Gagner is gaining).
- Sam Gagner. The man who inspired the nickname Samwise as a teenager manages both spectacular passes and subtle positioning defensively on the same shifts. That stands out on this team and this is the guy the club should build the team around, at least until such time as Seguin/Hall clearly show they're better overall players.
- Tom Gilbert. This post was inspired by a conversation I had this week about Gilbert. Two guys spent about 15 minutes explaining to me that 77 had one good season and Lowe paid him right away; they feel he's been horse bleep since then. Which flies in the face of the math. Gilbert has played almost 250 NHL games with the Oilers and been one of their best players in many of them. Losing teams tend to focus on the negative and Pat Quinn wanted to make him over in the fall, but other than that I can't think of one good reason to rip the guy. He isn't Scott Stevens as a hitter, but he plays an intelligent game, moves the puck well and was positively stunning jumping into the play before Quinn put the Denver boot on creativity. Tom Gilbert is a helluva hockey player. Full stop.
- Shawn Horcoff. I know all about the -30 and the fact that his one time cannon is more like a popgun this season, but Horcoff's Corsi ratings (relative to team and competition) are quality. It comes down to this: if you believe that events can vary wildly in an 82 game season but that everything is drawn back to an actual performance median, the hockey Gods will be rewarding this player in the future. I've taken some heat in defending Shawn Horcoff all down the line (and especially this season) but don't really see a reason to change my mind. If you believe in the things we've come to know over these last seasons (like Corsi, end-zone starts, SP-per-player) then Shawn Horcoff is a case study in drawing back to the median. He's a 15-game winner sitting at 7-16 for the season with a good k/w in a lot of innings. I think you make the bet, and disregard the boxcars and the booing fans and the misquoted cap hit. The Edmonton Oilers need to have the courage of their conviction, and despite the heavy contract the evidence shows this guy can play.
I'm a little surprised that you don't have Ryan Whitney on here LT. Is this strictly due to the small sample size we've seen?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLT: Same question as Dave re: Whitney.
ReplyDeleteAlso, did Cogliano warrant much consideration from you regarding this list?
I was gonna post this in last night's game thread where there was a good discussion about the makeup of the team going forward so I guess I'll post it here.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with looking at how this team is built going forward is we really don't know what the plan is for '11 whether it's to try and turn it around quickly - or gamble that some guys have bounce back seasons both in terms of health and production - or are we going bare bones in order to grab another top five pick.
For instance here's a way we could look at '11 if we're trying to get back to the playoffs - or least go back to rimming around that position.
The Oilers gamble that Khabby remains healthy; they sign Jagr; they trust in 13-67.
So we leave MPS in the SEL and we draft Seguin and leave him in the OHL for one more season and here's what we have up front.
83-10-68
27-89-Eberle
13-Third line centre who can win draws and kill penalties-67
32-78-16/46/28
What does that look like to everyone? Hopefully we don't have to buy out either 12-19 and I think with one year left we won't have to buy them out.
D: 5-6-77-?????
I would like to have 2-49 as the 6th-7th D but that means that we have to find two more D in the offseason and of course we have some players as trading chips plus the FA market to find those guys. A Souray-Hedja trade would be a good move if the latter is healthy but even with that we'd need one more guy.
G: Khabby plus a vet in case he gets hurt. That puts DD back in the A until he tears the place apart and goodbye JDD.
I look at the team I put together and it's a bit slanted and probably the only way it works is if the 10-89 lines can play and hang with the toughs and then the 13-New guy-67 line can take on the softs. It seems an odd call to put a Pahlsson/Madden type with 13-67 but we need that guy on the roster for the two duties I mentioned - and it would be awesome if he was RH - and it wouldn't hurt those two to have an in-play defensive mentor.
The final problem I see with this is where are the six PKers? Let's say that 16 rounds out the top 12 forward so you've got him and 78 as a possible pair but how have they done in that role this year? Not well I'd imagine given the overall lack of success of the PK unit. You have 10 as a candidate and 27 once killed penalties but now he's gassed just playing EV so do you want to go back that route? I think 89 should be considered and maybe 13 on a third duo but guys like 83-67 are non-starters.
There are a lot of questions and part of me thinks the brass will just go bare bones again - and sell it as another year of the rebuild - as a device for another year before they actually have to start thinking about doing the right things to right the ship.
If Quinn + Gilbert is a problem and you are suggesting that we keep Gilbert, are you suggesting Quinn should be gone?
ReplyDeleteQuinn likes Gilbert a lot now, now that Gilbert understands what Quinn wants him to do.
ReplyDeleteLike the player, like the person - but I'm not adverse to trading Horcoff.
ReplyDeleteWhitney has been really impressive. Excited to see if he can carry over his short term success moving forward.
I woke up this morning reminiscing the stupidity of Kevin Lowe's RFA offersheet to 45 point man Thomas Vanek. What luck it was to have it matched. The offersheet was made after a season the Sabres lead the league in team scoring I believe. Classic Kevin Lowe - buy high, sell low.
I agree with each, even on Horcoff. However, in watching him at the game last night you have to wonder whether he can regain the form that puts him in this top five. His hands have abandoned him. Its shocking to watch. I thought the best players on the ice last night were Brule, Cogliano, Whitney, and Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteAlso there has been quite a bit of talk at games recently between periods about moving someone for the number two pick in the draft (should the Oil get the first). Hemsky seems to be the only real bait. Brownlee also wrote on this lately. Lowetide, I would be curious to hear your opinion on this idea.
Horcoff has also lost that foot speed he used to volubly demonstrate. He used to carry the puck and gain the zone before his injuries.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, in November he was quoted as saying his shoulder may not need surgery, but could bother him the rest of the year. I'd imagine it has played a role.
Dave: I've been very impressed with Whitney but we need to see him longer imo.
ReplyDeletebookie: The number one thing I'd like to see is Pat Quinn gone. He's not helping. Development is going backward with many of the kids and frankly the Penner turnaround didn't have sustain. Penner remains a good player but I don't think MacT's kicks in the ass were the problem.
The game has passed Quinn by. Probably lapped him twice.
Which ever side of the ledger your on about Horcov is almost irrelevant. He has a NMC until his last year ('14-'15).
ReplyDeleteHe is going to be here eating up minutes and taking on the toughs for the next 4 1/2 years minimum.
This is a player that the fan base CAN'T run out of town.
So, in light of that. The Oilers management should be trying to find some tough minute, veteran wingers who can make up some kind of shutdown line. This would be the best way to shelter the youngsters on the way up (Hall, MPS, Eberle etc) as well as using an asset in the best possible situation to help the team succeed.
We can have a mediocre (on a good year) first line center, or a great checking / shutdown center to shelter the kids.
Whitney has been more than I expected so far. Very impressed with his transition game, first step and first pass.
ReplyDeleteI'm convinced that Gilbert's struggles early this season were entirely to do with trying to adapt to a new defensive system. He'd played under Huddy since coming to the NHL and for whatever reason that system favoured him.
ReplyDeleteQuinn's (or Renney's?) system seemed to be different and he struggled to adapt. The focus was definitely very different. Quinn's comments about not caring if his D got points as long as they played the system in their zone being the obvious example.
I also think he was not getting partners who would enable him to succeed. Souray and Gilbert were a very solid pair last year. This year, less so, and I think a lot of the blame falls on 44, even pre-injury. Is it fair to place some of the blame on his mental state with all of the BS going on with his wife?
After Souray went down it was a lot of games with Grebeshkov (who was just having an awful season) and Strudwick (Who for all his heart, doesn't have what it takes to be more than a #7 anymore).
Still, after his chat with Quinn the lightbulb seemed to go off. He looks more like the Gilbert of old in his own zone. You're also starting to see him try to sneak in late to the circles again. Perhaps now that he's earned the coaching staff's trust defensively they are taking off the shackles offensively?
Chalk me up as another Whitney fan. This is a guy who is clearly relishing being 'the guy' for the first time in his pro career. I honestly didn't think that 6-77 would be a good pair given that the book on both players is that they play better with a physical partner. Whitney seems to be rubbing off on Gilbert as he's looked nastier. Whitney is also much more physical and meaner than advertised.
Perhaps this type of 'intelligent' player needs to be getting those 24+ minutes a game to be bost effective. Your physical bruisers can't usually play that many minutes since it wears on the body too much. Your 'smart' players, however, are better suited to that, and maybe even excel?
LT - Here's the issue I have:
ReplyDeleteIf Horcoff is really as valuable as you say, then why is the consensus that you couldn't trade him for an LRT ticket?
It could be that this is not the consensus, but haven't really seen anyone say that.
So why doesn't anyone else see the value? Are they all wrong? (I'm fully open to this line of argument and have called NHL GMs flat-stupid on occasion) What is it?
LMHF: I've never bought that you can't trade him. Horcoff is certainly overpriced and with the cap not moving upwards it most certainly hinders his value.
ReplyDeleteBut Horcoff does have value. He's not facing the soft parade and posting these numbers, he's facing Koufax in the first six innings, then Fingers and finally Billy Wagner.
Little wonder his BA is off.
LT - I can understand that, and it's certainly possible. I'd just imagine that Tambellini with his goals of flexibility in the roster and cap, might've dealt him then, but who knows.
ReplyDeleteI'd concur generally on your list, minus Horcoff and plus Whitney. I think it's the next 5 guys where things get a lot more interesting.
It's going to be an odd day when everyone realizes how good Tom Gilbert really is...
I'm surprised that Penner is on your list. Part of turning this mess around is going to be developing a culture of competition, not just drafting first overall and hiring some value players.
ReplyDeletePenner has done nothing in his time as a pro to demonstrate he brings anything to the table in that regard. We need to spend our "veteran" dollars on veterans that will lead and teach the right sort of habits. That's not a guy that can go half a season at a time playing indifferent hockey.
I'd trade Penner quite happily - frankly I'm disappointed we didn't try and pry the Leaf's pick out of the Bruins' hands with Penner, although their salary situation probably wouldn't allow a deal that simple. If you are going to take multiple seasons to rebuild, let's do it properly.
I have trouble blaming Penner for mailing it in the last half of this season. Maybe it's unprofessional of him, but if I was in his shoes it would be tough to give a shit when losing really is in the team's best interests.
ReplyDeleteI just do not get the adoration of Hemsky. The thought of this team being built around him makes me sick to my stomach. If he is in play at the draft I would be beyond excited.
ReplyDeleteHere's to hoping Tambellini gets it right at the draft. Then going out and finding real hockey players during the course of the summer.
The thought of this team being built around him makes me sick to my stomach
ReplyDeleteJason Gregor is that you?
Hemsky was a Point per Game player when he went down [playing with a mediocre (on a good year) first line Center]
Right now there are 23 guys meeting that level.
Can't have guys like that around!
Right now there are 23 guys meeting that level.
ReplyDeleteRight now there are 23 NHLers meeting that level.
Edited for clarity
As shown previously, Corsi has a 0,55 correlation with future success. Which means there IS players to whom this rating has to be taken with a grain of salt.(Already 0,55 isn't that big, borderline considerated).
ReplyDeleteAs i said to JW once, i do prefer ''He had a good season, then a bad one then a good one'' to ''Well he was lucky, then unlucky, then lucky''
At this point we are probably stuck with Horcoff anyway. And that leaves us with pretty much no choice.
If he can run fine next year, good.
If this year repeats, just take him behind the barn.
Nice post LT,
ReplyDeleteOne point: I agree on Horcoff five times over. Watch for a bounce back.
But he's the oldest guy in that core of 5. That doesn't mean he has to be traded, but it might be better to have another 27-ish or younger guy.
That seemed to have been the thinking on Vis.-Whitney, anyway.
Let's hope this doesn't develop into a Horc battle.
ReplyDeleteOh LT, why not put Smid or maybe even Souray in a core of 7? Is Smid not good enough and Souray too likely to be traded?
Complaining that Penner isn't a good enough leader on this team is ridiculous. The people who are supposed to be the leaders on this team are the ones with letters on their jerseys. I don't see how penner can go from being alone in the doghouse for this team last season despite not playing that bad to leader that the young players look up to in one season. Where were those leaders for him last year? Where are they this year? The oilers have a leadership vacuum that needs to be filled but it can only start after we get rid of 18, 44, and/or 10. Moving 24 helped. The new leaders have to outnumber the old ones (if we plan to keep 10 or 83)
ReplyDeleteI just dont think Hemsky is a guy you build around. He is a extremely unique, complimentary player. Not a cornerstone at all. Laughable.
ReplyDeleteAnd watching Horcoff fall off the very good hockey player wagon after his injury, I am ultra skeptical Hemsky will be the same player after his injury.
edited to add Horcoff was/is very much a complete hockey player, whereas Hemsky is PPG fluff.
ReplyDeleteDevelopment is going backward with many of the kids and frankly the Penner turnaround didn't have sustain.
ReplyDeleteThere was never a turnaround. He's still the same great player. He was scoring in droves early because of percentages and his qualcomp, even with Brule. Then he got Hemsky and Gagner and kept scoring against the toughs.
Then he got Brule and Gagner against the toughs. That's one and an eighth linemates against the toughs - and he's still outshooting and outchancing.
If there is one revelation that even the math guys should have this year, it's that Penner is a legit star. I know that MC79 has finally been convinced, I don't know about the rest.
A few things:
ReplyDelete1. I think the moves they've made recently mean the team should be built around Gagner. No disrespect to Hemsky/Horcoff but this team won't be a real contender until Gagner is maybe 23 or 24, and Hemsky was drafted 6 seasons before Gagner.
2. I am suspicious of Smid. Just am. Hopefully it'll be one of those things Dennis reminds me of (although surely the list is long enough!) when it turns out the other way. I like him, always have. But he needs to deliver some offense in order to be a guy you can consistently use in the top 4D.
3. Hemsky is NOT a fluff piece you guys. He has the balls of a pirate, has taken shots from Reghehr that would send Nilsson back to the womb and generally competes in every game he's in. 83 turns the puck over in places where fans can get annoyed and then OTC recalls the three things he remembers from the game in the media srum and whammo we have a new bad guy.
I've seen a lot of Canadian skill wingers from towns we know absorb less than 83 and fade sooner.
Hemsky's a man.
4. Coach: I'm talking about Penner's elite level start, where he really did look like Frank Mahovlich. Fine player when he's not reaching the stars, but not capable of the sustain required to be truly great. I think this season shows us that much.
shanetrain said...
ReplyDeleteI just do not get the adoration of Hemsky. The thought of this team being built around him makes me sick to my stomach. If he is in play at the draft I would be beyond excited.
So says "No Hemsky, no problem". Your analysis sure was spot on there.
Hemsky will need FRAGILE sewn in parentheses beneath his name and above his number for next year.
ReplyDeleteVery proud of Penner and what he has done this year. The guy just isnt physical enough for my liking.
Sounds like Eberle got off to a good start last night. Hopefully the braintrust, lol, can keep him out of that toxic waste that they call the dressing room.
The No Hemsky, No problem thing arose out of getting to see the other forwards touch the puck and seeing what they could do with it.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have been shit with Hemsky and now they are shit without. Whats your point?
Complaining that Penner isn't a good enough leader on this team is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteI don't care if guys don't wear an A or a C (though Penner does wear an A these days). What I care about is whether he shows up to work his hardest and try his best to win every single night regardless of the circumstances.
If you look at teams that win, they aren't full of guys that take some nights off, mail it in when they the team isn't doing well, or whatever excuse seems convenient. They are competing, trying to improve all the little bits of their game, and setting the right example. Penner, from my view, isn't that sort of guy.
I wonder what the prognosis is for Hemsky's torn labrum. It very well may be that he won't be the same player until the beginning of the 2011/2012 season.
ReplyDeleteDoes that change things?
I'm not saying you turn around and dump the guy for ten cents on the dollar, but it might be prudent to find another bonafide option on the RW to play the toughs.
Hemsky's a man.
ReplyDeleteThat this is in question is insane. He's the best wing the Oilers have had since Kurri. Period.
4. Coach: I'm talking about Penner's elite level start, where he really did look like Frank Mahovlich. Fine player when he's not reaching the stars, but not capable of the sustain required to be truly great. I think this season shows us that much.
Tell ya what, sir. There must be some way that we could bet a dinner of the winner's choosing and a night of a bottomless draught glass that Penner is a 30-40-70 guy on a team that isn't complete shit.
Coach: I'll drink beer any time, so this should be something we can close in a heartbeat. :-)
ReplyDeleteI'm saying that people shouldn't be surprised about Penner's performance this season based on what he did a season ago. He's a good LW and certainly does drive results.
But I think you'd have to agree that he's not exactly a textbook winger in all three zones. Penner CAN do lots of things but I'm not certain a coach can count on him to care a helluva lot in the defensive zone.
And that's a tell, too.
The Oilers have been shit with Hemsky and now they are shit without. Whats your point?
ReplyDeleteWell, would you rather shit creamed corn or pine cones?
I don't mind 5 as much as I used to and it's not his fault Lowe had him included in the Pronger deal.
ReplyDeleteThat being said we don't know how good he is Without 71 and with these new health problems and that fact it's stemming from an injury he had at age 16 that has to raise a few red flags.
I agree with each, even on Horcoff. However, in watching him at the game last night you have to wonder whether he can regain the form that puts him in this top five. His hands have abandoned him.
ReplyDeleteYou mean his shoulder has. That's been the case since November. I'm sure it's at least somewhat better now than it was then -- it's been five months -- but without proper rest, it's not going to get back to something resembling 100%. I still think he should've been shut down by the Olympics at the latest, since this season was confirmed beyond reasonable doubt as a lost cause to even the most optimistic of us well before then, but I'm not an AT, and I don't have all the facts.
But [Smid] needs to deliver some offense in order to be a guy you can consistently use in the top 4D.
I don't buy that, necessarily. How much did Jason Smith score? How much does Dan Hejda score in Ohio? Et cetera. To revise an old saying, a goal prevented is a goal scored. I'm not saying he's that good yet -- he's got a lot to prove without 71, as Dennis says -- but if he's close to it at any point, I'm not going to fret if he scores three goals a year.
Well, would you rather shit creamed corn or pine cones?
And that made my morning.
Guys,
ReplyDeleteStop feeding the troll.
Anyone who can type the phrase PPG fluff and actually mean it does not have the ability to think critically, analyze and argument and re-examine held beliefs using any new conclusions.
So,
Don't feed the troll.
Shane-Train was the guy who thought the Oil would be better without Hemsky which even from an outsider's perspective was laughable lunacy. That should tell you what you need to know about his hockey opinions.
ReplyDelete---
EFFPEEVEE: I think you need to brush up on your math skills and tell us what 0.55 R^2 values really mean, in the real world. Instead of just using evidence you don't understand to keep moving the conversation backward.
Get cracking, your high school textbooks may not have this info.
That this is in question is insane. He's the best wing the Oilers have had since Kurri. Period.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I think I agree, but it's not that easy a call. Maybe he's tied with Smyth? At least it's a close call, no? Bill Guerin was good too for a time.
The only knock on Hemsky is the goal production, and that's a small knock indeed given that he creates offense for the his teammates. In every other facet of the game, he's as good as the league's best. IMO. The goal totals might improve a bit yet, too.
I pretty much agree with Lowetide's assessment. That's the core as it stands. Whitney sure looks promising from what he's shown so far. I supose we could hypothetically mark this one down as Lowe really does have an idiot savant talent for picking up defensemen. He does fit in our window better than Lubo did too (although I miss watching that guy).
ReplyDeleteRight now what we need is for a few of the draft picks or some of the odds and ends to step it up and give us another 5 players who we can build around. The Swedes look promising, and Eberle is a national hero at the ripe old again of 19 so we have some bullets in the gun for that. Now we need the coaching staff to do something with the Magnificient Bastard's picks.
I wonder what the prognosis is for Hemsky's torn labrum. It very well may be that he won't be the same player until the beginning of the 2011/2012 season.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good question. I think if you look at Vinnie L's performance pre and post shoulder surgery, there's quite a difference. That said, it's hard to know if that's the real cause or if there are other things at play.
I don't think there are that many NCAA hoops fans here but is there anything more comforting than listening to the Verne Lundquist/Bill Raffterty announcing duo?
ReplyDeleteI don't believe there is sir.
This team tries to "turn it around" quickly...with what exactly? The remnants of the worst team in the NHL, plus a lot of excuses?
ReplyDeleteIt's effing laughable to even imagine this, except in a drunken bar conversation with workmates.
OIlers are a team without a single proper winning season in the lifetimes of many of their own fans. Good teams are built, not tossed together like salad.
I follow the Madness only in that I'm an addict and have to fill out a bracket.. ;).
ReplyDeletePast that though, not so much.
Pretty much agree with your top 5 LT... not even sure who else is worth mentioning in it, other than Whitney, who we need some more viewing time with.
Being an Oiler fan is unbelievably boring right now.
LT - I'm in the same boat as you with regards to the coach. His pressers are amusing, but the game has passed him by. He might be able to have success with a veteran team that needs a kick in the pants to take the next step, but he's not a teacher and with the amount of young players we are going to be breaking in over the next few years we need someone who can teach and communicate with young players and get them to learn the system he wants them to play.
ReplyDeleteSay what you will about injuries, youth, an unbalanced lineup and whatever else has ailed this team this year, I've never seen a team this deep into the season that has absolutely no clue how to execute the system the coach is trying to impliment, especially in the defensive zone. My beer league team has fewer ghastly defensive zone breakdowns than the Oilers this year. At some point, that has to fall squarely on the coaches shoulders. If your guys can't execute the system - which they clearly couldn't and can't - tweak the freaking system so you don't get your goalie killed every night.
So the question then is, who do you see replacing Quinn? When the "Coaching Dream Team" was introduced last summer, the general concensus was that Quinn would coach for a couple years and then Renney would step up to the big chair. Is that still the best option available, or has this season been such a disaster from every perspective that we just fire the whole lot of them and start from scratch?
I've thought alot about this recently and still haven't formed an opinion one way or the other. I didn't follow the Rangers closely enough during Renney's tenure to say one way or the other how he runs a bench and the team in general. All I know is I keep looking at that Phoenix team that everybody thought would be where we are today and it's so obvious what a great coach can do. Is Renney that guy? Who else is out there that might be? Hitch is likely the obvious answer and he's got deep roots in this city, and his results speak for themself, but I'm not sure I want to be subjected to watching Hitch's system choke the life out of exciting hockey for the next 3 years until he would lose the room and get fired to bring in the next guy.
Gretzky looks kind of Mongolian in that pic. Mongols overran Russia, so it's no stretch he's descended from arguably the greatest army in history.
ReplyDeleteHahahahahaha.
ReplyDeleteHemsky is a great PPG player and didn't have real great teamates.
I mean... way to spit on arguably the best Oiler of this decade.
(Yes i prefer Hemsky to Ryan Smyth)
PPG players are a gem in this league. Don't throw it away.
...and Shanetrain - that's without a doubt some of the craziest stuff I've ever read on this blog. Did Grebs leave you his stash on the way out of town?
ReplyDelete@ Dennis - not much of a hoops fan, but I'll agree with you about Vern Lundquist. One of the great play by play guys, although I tend to favor his work at The Masters. Years later, his calls of Nicklaus on 17 in 1986 ("Maybe...YES SIR!!!") and Eldrick on 16 in 2005when his ball hung on the edge of the hole before dropping ("In your life have you seen anything like that?") remain as recognizable as the shots themselves. And the guys is so versatile - Basketball, golf, NFL. One of the greats for sure.
@Rider Guy
ReplyDeletein regards to Hitch, I don't think this team has the right horses for a successful Hitch team. I can't see Nilsson, POS, Penner, etc. buying into or more importantly executing his defense first system with any amount of success. I could see a healthy horcov, healthy pisani and maybe a pouliot or gagner executing well under hitch.
Based on what this team does have on the roster and in the stable, I'd think a coach like crawford when he was in van or torts when he was in tb. Not either of those two in particular, please. But someone with a bit more of an open aggressive system.
I am pretty sure Horcoff only has a no movement clause for the first three years of his contract and the last year. In years 4 and 5, he can be asked to submit a list of ten teams.
ReplyDeleteI think Horcoff will be tradeable if the counting numbers rebound to average next year, with two years of high actual dollars on his contract gone.
But I see no urgency to trade him. He has been playing hurt, playing the toughest minutes, and playing with an anchor tethered to him (wither Jacques, O'Sullivan, or Moreau). i.e Quinn doesn't tailor his lines to maxmize the unique abilities of a player. Situational player management is a major Quinn weakness.
Cogliano and Brule look like NHL players when they play with Penner. Not so much when they don't. This is true of just about all the young guys.
Penner can kill soft minutes, but produced less in a tough minute role without another elite player.
Penner, Hemsky, and Horcoff are critical because they can take the tough minutes, and allow all our prospects to develop facing softer minutes. The prospects will be ruined if you throw them to the wolves.
Also, I don't mind if Horcov gets moved, but it all depends on what Lowe does with the his $7m .
ReplyDeleteIf he translates it into kotalik and lupul, I won't be happy, but if he turns it into Hamhuis and a proper 3c, I'm all for it.
Unfortunately Hamhuis isn't signing here unless it's an ugly overpay to the point we're worse off.
Ironically, one of the main reasons I want to keep Horcov is I don't trust Lowe to do some good with his cap space if he can be moved, and it seems the main reason the anti-horc crowd wants him moved is more to do with the contract Lowe gave him, than it is to do with the player himself.
Penner, Hemsky, and Horcoff are critical because they can take the tough minutes, and allow all our prospects to develop facing softer minutes. The prospects will be ruined if you throw them to the wolves.
ReplyDeleteSeconded.
These are the guys I want the magnificent bastards picks learning from and being protected by. In my beautiful little dream world, the Oil turn it around in two years and can re-sign Hemmer.
Laviolette would have made a good coach for the Oilers, and copies the vaunted 'detroit model' since the wings hired the last guy that beat them in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there are that many NCAA hoops fans here but is there anything more comforting than listening to the Verne Lundquist/Bill Raffterty announcing duo?
ReplyDeleteRaftery effortlessly compares the Ohio 2 guard to Lenny Wilkins in a sentence and moves on to the next topic.
On talk radio, the guy that did this would be spitting and screaming and sound incompetent.
Raftery is the best colorman in any sport.
Years later, his calls of Nicklaus on 17 in 1986 ("Maybe...YES SIR!!!")
ReplyDeleteIt's wrong, and I feel shame, but any time that I drain a putt from beyond 20, that's my call.
Best golf call ever.
I'm saying that people shouldn't be surprised about Penner's performance this season based on what he did a season ago. He's a good LW and certainly does drive results.
ReplyDeleteYes.
But I think you'd have to agree that he's not exactly a textbook winger in all three zones. Penner CAN do lots of things but I'm not certain a coach can count on him to care a helluva lot in the defensive zone.
Alright, I'll buy that, but I'll also say that his defensive performance is underrated. He plays high quite often in this system, so he doesn't have a real opportunity to show well.
Minard assigned to Springfield.
ReplyDeletePOS is probably ready for Sunday.
LT
ReplyDeleteHorcoff is a good 2nd line center that is having a season from HELL!!
Using the baseball analogy: he is, this year. 8-15 with an era of 5.16 and has too many BB with few strikeouts with a mediocre WHIP
I don't think there are that many NCAA hoops fans here but is there anything more comforting than listening to the Verne Lundquist/Bill Raffterty announcing duo?
ReplyDeleteI don't believe there is sir.
Verne and Bill are both great announcers. They are both very smooth and you can tell that they love the sport by the way they broadcast. Basically they are the antithesis of Billy Packer, who was a hateful prick. Nothing better than Gus Williams for a close game though. He sounds like he might stroke out at any point.
I don't watch college basketball like I used to but it's a wonderful game. Al Mcguire was my guy, he taught me a bunch about defense.
ReplyDeleteGretzky, Messier, Anderson, Ranford, Fuhr, McSorely, Lowe, Gregg, Beukaboom, MacTavish, Kurri, Tikkannen, Simpson - thirteen names and I've got a raging hangover as am trying to type them.
ReplyDeleteAmazing just how cup winners never are forgotten, even the foot soldiers.
Steve Smith, lol
I think we can add a few more players to this list.
ReplyDelete6. Gilbert Brule. Arguably the only other small "skill" player who has distinguished himself. His physical grittiness certainly makes it easier to swallow his diminuitive stature, and his ability to score goals on a terrible team is promising, when a lot of other supposedly skilled players have not.
7. Ryan Whitney. This team does not have many players walking into their prime, and frankly, they can use all the help they can get.
8. Ladislav Smid. By virtue of showing progress and being an unusual sort of defenceman on this team. It remains to be seen whether he ends up a go-to shutdown D-man or just someone who rounds out your bottom pairing, but at the very least, he's part of the solution rather than the problem.
9. Zack Stortini. Remember when the Oilers moved Brodziak? The problem wasn't so much that Brodziak was so essential, but rather, that Tambellini identified the wrong warm body to dump. Yes, a fourth line center who may or may not have a career as a good third line guy doesn't make or break your team, but they were, and still are, too small up front, and they traded one of their few bigger bodies. I have a similar view on Stortini. It's not so much that Stortini is going to win, but he's not the reason that you are losing, which means that you can't move him, because it just creates another hole on the roster to fill when you already have too many of them. When you're arguably missing two or three qualified top six players, an entire third line, and a few quality defencemen, then you keep your physical, somewhat-effective-for-his-role fourth line winger just because it's at least one less thing to worry about.
10. Theo Peckham. He's probably about two seasons away from being a consistently effective NHL player, but that's okay, so is his team. He's one of those players that has progressed steadily, which is usually an encouraging sign, and just needs time and patience from the organization to be ready. You can probably have him as your 7th man next year (on a blue-line without Chorney, who probably needs to have a year in the minors, preferrably with a team that wins), and let him work his way up from there.
I'm willing to keep Aaron Johnson as a warm body, and you try to get value for Cogliano (in the form of a bigger forward who can play), it remains to be seen if Ryan Jones is a player, but should be given a shot, and Potunly, unless you sign somebody better, is an option for the fourth line. Souray should be moved, but again, I would expect at least a little value for a player like him, and this team can probably take back salary to complete a deal with him.
The rest of them... get rid of them by any means necessary. O'Sullivan is probably a hockey player, but I don't think with Gagner, possibly Cogliano, Brule and likely Eberle coming in, you can have him as yet another sub-6' forward. The rest of them either do not fit (Comrie), are useless (Moreau, Dubnyk, Pouliot), or in the case of Robert Nilsson, a less effective version of Rob Schremp.
Eberle just scored in Springfield, by the way. Second in two nights. I'd say he's a man on a mission.
ReplyDeleteOn that note:
ReplyDeleteSpringfield vs. Hartford:
http://atdhe.net/watch-american-hockey-league.php?s=wolfpack
1 G and 2 A for Eberle so far.
ReplyDeleteI might be in the minority here, but I'm a fan of Tambellini's approach. Let these guys prove they can play in the A before they get a spot on the big team.
Paper Designer:
ReplyDeleteGreat later picks, all worth keeping.
Eberle = flash in the pan.
ReplyDeletej/k
Seriously, make him play 40 at bats in the AHL.
Hmmm, I partially agree w your stortini comments PD, not the problem so dont create another by getting rid of him, but not fully.. foot speed remains an issue that minimizes the effectiveness of his physicality.. If he could be replaced (upgraded) then get'er done..
ReplyDeleteThat being said, there are no other fighters up front and he brings a great work-ethic that probably shines positively on his teammates (going on the basis of his past captaincy and general observation) Plus the good underlying numbers, so another positive..
Anyways,
The fourth line fight isnt for RW, it is centre where it is all bunged up...
WRT Smid, Im really worried about this reoccurring bulging disk issue.. seems like it could muck up his career...
There's no benefit to rushing Eberle, but given that he had nine points in nine games with a similarly wretched Springfield squad last year, you'd have to guess he'd get a nice long look in camp next year if he does the same this time around.
ReplyDelete5 points in 5 periods is a good start.
ReplyDeleteI think we can add a few more players to this list.
ReplyDeleteI think you're using a different definition of "heart of the order",
and missed the line about "heavy lifting"
Brule will be fighting Eberle for the same EZ minutes. Also, I'd say there is no evidence his ceiling is higher than Cogliano's.
Souray is an extravagance.
Smid did OK with Lubo. Without?
Stortini, I like him. But he's filler like Pouliot, Potulny, Stone and Jacques.
Bling:
ReplyDeleteI don't mind making Eberle earn the call up, I think that's a good way to handle the end of this year since he can't play more than 9 NHL games anyways.
I don't know what you can "prove" in 11 games, but he had 9 pts in 9 games at the end of his 18 year old season in the AHL. Admittedly he was a -5; the team was 2-7 in his 9 GP.
He has 5pts in 2 GP, +2, at the end of his 19 year old season. I'm obviously not expecting him to keep that pace up, but if he's got 6 or 7 pts in 4 or 5 games, I'm not sure how bad an idea it could be to give him 5 or so NHL games, let him see what the pace is like, give him an ideaa of what he needs to work on over the summer etc.
CBA question:
ReplyDeleteAbout those 9 games before you start wasting RFA seasons, is it 9 games per season, or is it 9 games total?
speeds: Plus you have a fanbase that has endured an awful season, it might be an idea to throw them a bone. A LOT of season's tickets aren't being renewed.
ReplyDeletePlus your point about seeing the big league curveballs is well taken. Give him 5 or 6 games so he can see what it'll take.
per season.
ReplyDeleteThere's little downside to bringing him up for 4 or 6 or 8 games to end the season. It should help Eberle to see the NHL pace, the fans might buy some tickets, even for the evaluation of Eberle internally it would seem valuable for him to play in the NHL, you can create some sort of video package and have the coaches go over the good and bad with him before sending him home for the summer.
ReplyDeleteMy guess: the plan is to call him up unless he's really bad in the AHL, but Tambellini didn't want to gamble that Eberle would take his call-up to the NHL for granted, and didn't want to have to go back on his word if Eberle were to go down to the AHL and struggle.
I fully anticipate a call-up for Eberle that is conveniently timed for a PPV game.
ReplyDeleteMy first post here on my favorite hockey blog.
speeds:
ReplyDeleteNo downside to bringing him up for a few games? How about the fact that this team is a train wreck? The worst in franchise history, and one where a relative new-comer in Ryan Whitney is harping on to the MSM about guys not wanting to be here.
The Oilers' dressing room is toxic at this point, and filled to the brim with guys who cheat for their offense. Not to say that it would ruin him as a prospect, but I'd rather have him play 20 minutes a game with the Falcons and get a start on learning the defensive side of the game at the pro level.
Damn, if they bring him up for a PPV game they might find a way to pry $16 from me. Just in time to watch him suffer a career-ending knee injury, if the season so far is any indicator.
ReplyDeleteNash scored the 3rd goal (I believe empty net) in Cornell's 3-0 win over Union tonight.
ReplyDeleteECAC champions. I tried to find Blondie's Union City Blue but fricking bing is useless.
Deborah Harry was hot when I was young.
The fact that the team is bad doesn't bother me at all. However, if the dressing room were comic book in terms of toxicity, I suppose I can see the arguement for leaving him in the AHL. Having said that, I doubt the culture is anywhere near that bad, but I'm not in the room so I can do nothing but guess.
ReplyDeleteAl Mcguire was my guy, he taught me a bunch about defense.
ReplyDeleteWhen I learned of his passing it was like a gut punch. He was so genuine in his love for the game and so incredible smart in the ways of basketball.
6. Gilbert Brule. Arguably the only other small "skill" player who has distinguished himself. His physical grittiness certainly makes it easier to swallow his diminuitive stature, and his ability to score goals on a terrible team is promising, when a lot of other supposedly skilled players have not.
ReplyDeleteHe's only distinguished himself as yet another forward that is completely reliant on Penner to generate the play for him.
Coach: Agreed. I was sick. It was like losing a friend.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds,
ReplyDeleteI think you nailed it. Gives better optics when Tambo says he earned the call up.
Debakey,
Brule will be fighting Eberle for the same EZ minutes. Also, I'd say there is no evidence his ceiling is higher than Cogliano's.
I don't think 13 is a good comparble for Eberle. 13 is in the leauge because he's fast, despite his stone hands. 14 will be in the league because of good hands, despite his lack of speed.
Although an argument can be made to keep 14 away from thecaptainethanmoreau.
ReplyDeleteDeborah Harry was hot when I was young.
ReplyDeletePat Benatar was hot a few years later. And she still is.
ECAC champions.
So Cornell is in and North Dakota is as well. Michigan State is likely in and Maine and Boston College in OT knotted at 6! Alabama-Huntsville winning CHA means that Robby Dee and Maine need a win tonight to get in. Alllll kinds of Oiler properties are going to the tournament.
let him see what the pace is like, give him an ideaa of what he needs to work on over the summer etc.
Considering the things that the Gilbert household has reportedly had to go through with Ethan Moreau - I wouldn't want Eberle anywhere near a locker room that contains Moreau, even if it's just a single game.
I guess RIT's win screwed Maine as well.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the things that the Gilbert household has reportedly had to go through with Ethan Moreau
ReplyDeleteCoach: I must have missed this one. Would you elaborate?
BC wins 7-6 in OT over Maine. I think Maine and Robby Dee are one of the last two teams out.
ReplyDeleteVandeVelde, Petry, and Nash will all be in the tourney.
Coach: I must have missed this one. Would you elaborate?
ReplyDeleteThere have been off-hand comments in columns about fractured locker room for two years. There were some rumors floating around that it was young Samwise that finally pulled a Howard Beale in the locker room on the captain.
I've had a couple of people tell me that it wasn't just Sam that was getting the smelly end of the stick from the captain - it was the entire Gilbert household plus one or two.
It's a shame that the people that have access and know about the story and have verified or could verify the story don't have the balls to run it.
Toronto wins again - they could potentially finish outside the lottery at this rate.
ReplyDeleteCoach,
ReplyDeleteStill too vague, please elaborate on "smelly end of the stick"
I think I misinterpreted what you meant by "Gilbert household".
ReplyDeleteI do, however, agree with the school of thought that we need to get thecaptainethanmoreau the fuck out of here. Biggest disappointment of the trade deadline, for sure.
Toronto wins again - they could potentially finish outside the lottery at this rate.
ReplyDeleteBoston with a chance to miss the playoffs AND miss the lottery?
Still too vague, please elaborate on "smelly end of the stick"
There was a very distinct social stratification in the locker room.
And all of the predictions I've just finished reading have Michigan State missing the tourney too.
So Petry and Dee just miss, Nash and VandeVelde are in.
This Blackhawks - Coyotes game is fun to watch.
ReplyDeleteDetroit - Van is good too.
ReplyDeleteDatsyuk with a goal 5 seconds after Bertuzzi.
Not quiet history, but still pretty unbelievable.
I think I misinterpreted what you meant by "Gilbert household".
ReplyDeleteIt's funny, because at this point it's absolutely plausible that Ethan Moreau treated Gilbert's mom or girlfriend like shit.
"He's only distinguished himself as yet another forward that is completely reliant on Penner to generate the play for him."
ReplyDeleteThe only player on this team that isn't completely reliant on Penner to create high quality offensive chances is Ales Hemsky. Hardly a revelation.
The difference between Brule leeching and others leeching is about 2-4 million in cap savings.
I don't know how -30 is ''handling the toughs''.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it would be possible for any player to do worst then that.
I don't think it would be possible for any player to do worst then that.
ReplyDeleteYou could ask POS if he thinks any player could be worse.. ;)
Qual Comp:
10: .046 (toughest of C)
19:-.013 (second toughest of RW)
+/- per 60
10: -1.73
19: -1.96
Regarding whether Ebs should get the call to the big club before the end of the year...
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty much acknowledged that the Oilers have an awful room. Stauffer has repeatedly hinted at it on his show and has stopped just short of saying that thecaptainethanmoreau is at the centre of the problem. However, given the season that Springfield has had, they can't have the greatest room either. If you envision yourself being an impact player in the NHL, I don't think being in a bad room for 9 or less meaningless games is going to ruin you mentally to the point that you don't or can't play hockey anymore.
One other point...By all accounts, the Pats room the last couple of years makes the Oilers room look like the Waltons by comparrison. How a team can have Eberle, Teubert, Carter Ashton and Jordan Weal among others and not come within sniffing distance of the playoffs is beyond me.
I'm sure there are many good reasons why it makes sense to leave Ebs in Springfield for the rest of the year. I'm just not sure a bad room in Edmonton is one of them.
...And just like that Detroit does it again. The GA Luongo kills me in my hockey pool, but Calgary weeps.
Detroit turning possibly 1pt into 3pts in two games with less than a second left yesterday and today in overtime.
ReplyDeleteMy inner schadenfraude is laughing at Calgary.
Black Gold: Touché. Tough no one pretends he can handle the toughs lol.
ReplyDeletePOS is terrible too, but LT has a soft spot for some bad hockey players.
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg Jets beat Chicago in OT for the 8th straight win. 1 point back of San Jose for the division, 2 back of Chicago for the conference!
ReplyDeleteFPV said...
ReplyDeleteI don't know how -30 is ''handling the toughs''. I don't think it would be possible for any player to do worst then that.
Great, now you've jinxed him.
Anyone here want to see maybe Pouliot instead of Horcoff on the PP?
ReplyDeleteLeader in goals/60. Think it would be a nice idea
IceCastles,
ReplyDeleteAll that with 13 Million in cap space to spare.
Don Maloney for GM of the year, and its not close.
LT: You have often said, or at least alluded to, Elite players spend little to no time in the AHL. If I remember correctly, when finding proper comps for a player, part of your criteria was time spent in the minor leagues.
ReplyDeleteMy Question, If Eberle was a ppg player last year and is a ppg player this year. Would that not make him look like a potential elite player that should be pencilled in on the big club next year?
I agree with not rushing a player but at what cost? If a player shows he belongs and can cross the line in the sand (ppg in AHL) does he not deserve a chance.
Whether people agree with it or not, I think our RW next year looks like:
Hemsky
Eberle
Brule
Potulny/Storts
I am rooting for Eberle and hopes he continues to improve.
Interesting thought about the lauded "Detroit model."
ReplyDeleteDatsyuk is now already 31 years old. How many good years does he have left?
While it's certainly advantageous to let your kids take their time and develop slowly... there's something to be said about how much time you potentially lose off of your window of them being elite/good/useful, is there not?
"Gilbert Household", I believe means Gilbert, Gagner and Cogliano because they were sharing a house two seasons ago.
ReplyDeleteI have mentioned before that I heard. secondhand of course, that there was some physicality between Moreau and Gagner and that there had been ongoing unpleasantness between Moreau and Souray because Souray didn't think the Captain was providing proper leadership.
Now that last place is all but locked up, I think Moreau should be IR'd or PB'd.
18 has done his all in the fall for Hall.
The Oilers may now want to consider the Coyote Model to emulate.
ReplyDeleteDon Maloney for GM of the year, and its not close.
ReplyDeleteDitto Dave Tippett and the evilly-named Jack Adams Trophy. Tippett was a guy I was touting for the Oil last year; I predicted his firing in Dallas but alas by the time it finally came about not only was MacT gone but Quinn et al had already signed on.
He's sure done wonders in PHX, especially when you consider he wasn't even around for training camp.
Lebowski - The problem with the Phoenix model is that it's based on signing established veteran NHL players to short term contracts that they can outperform. Who builds a team like that?
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else think Pouliot is devastated right now that LT didn't put his name on the list?
ReplyDeleteI'd say that might hurt him even more than the pubitis thing, but that sounds pretty nasty.
The Oilers may now want to consider the Coyote Model to emulate.
ReplyDeleteFuck off... They're already changing models to emulate from year to year. You want them to do it month to month now?
...Cheers.
I have trouble blaming Penner for mailing it in the last half of this season. Maybe it's unprofessional of him, but if I was in his shoes it would be tough to give a shit when losing really is in the team's best interests.
ReplyDeleteSchitzo, is he mailing it in or he is reverting back? He had all sorts of piss and vinegar off the hop and that started fading at about the 25 game mark.
The worry for me is he doesn't have an "I'll show you" card up his sleeve anymore. He'll still be able to contribute, but I think that dominating player we saw early on is gone until the next coach pisses him off.
Had to leave my 2 cents re: Gilbert...
ReplyDeleteAgain, he's a good player with hard to replicate skills - on the offensive side.
On defense this year he's been just awful, and I don't see the skill, grit or attitude to assume he can improve to the level some here expect.
You can say what you will about secondary stats, or what you want to blame it on - but anyone who's watched Oiler hockey this can't claim in any way that he's been good in his own end.
But with Souray soon on his way out, we're stuck with him. My only hope is that Lowe/Tambs get a good checking D-man to pair with him next year to cover for his many mistakes.