The NCAA season isn't over yet but we're in the home stretch. Cornell lost last night, leaving only Chris Vande Velde still going among the top flight Oiler prospects in college. Dean Millard is convinced Nash should turn pro and get to Springfield A-SAP. I'm not certain that the Oilers AHL Snafu team is the right spot for any kid turning pro, and Nash's situation is somewhat different in that he has expressed that finishing college now is a strong option.
Vande Velde is a different story, as he is completing his final college season. His signing (and heading to Springfield) is more certain than in the case of Nash. Let's go back over the last few seasons in terms of Desjardins NHLE's and see how everything lines up for the current group.
- C Andrew Cogliano 17-19-36 (19)
- R David Rohlfs 11-11-22 (22)
- D Taylor Chorney 6-15-21 (19)
- R Colin McDonald 10-3-13 (22)
- D Cody Wild 5-7-12 (19)
- C Geoff Paukovich 5-7-12 (20)
- C Chris Vande Velde 2-4-6 (19)
- L Matt Glasser 0-0-0 (19)
Cogliano would turn pro the following season and post 82gp, 18-27-45 numbers. His second season was much closer to his Desjardins estimate and this year Cogliano has taken a step back offensively (although a late surge is repairing the numbers to some extent). Chorney looked like he might be able to bring some offense to the show and McDonald looked like a fringe offensive player. It is interesting to see Chris Vande Velde's numbers at 19 years old.
2007-08
- C Riley Nash 11-19-30 (18)
- C Chris Vande Velde 12-13-25 (20)
- D Cody Wild 4-19-23 (20)
- D Jeff Petry 2-17-19 (20)
- D Taylor Chorney 2-17-19 (20)
- L Matt Glasser 5-3-8 (20)
- L Robby Dee 1-3-4 (20)
Nash replaces the graduating Cogliano at the top of the list and Vande Velde becomes a regular. The college trio of defenders looks about equal, with a slight edge in this season to the recently departed Wild. Most interesting here is the age of these prospects; all but Nash are at an age when the Oilers would have been making a decision on signing them if they were CHL prospects.
2008-09
- C Riley Nash 12-22-34 (19)
- C Chris Vande Velde 14-13-27 (21)
- D Jeff Petry 2-10-12 (21)
- C Robby Dee 6-5-11 (21)
- L Matt Glasser 3-3-6 (21)
Nash had a nice season at 19-years old, in the range with Cogliano's a couple of years before. Vande Velde shows slight improvement and Petry has a tough season.
2009-10
- C Riley Nash 13-26-39 (20)
- C Chris Vande Velde 13-21-34 (22)
- D Jeff Petry 4-22-26 (22)
- C Robby Dee 13-12-25 (22)
- L Matt Glasser 2-3-5 (22)
- D Kyle Bigos 4-6-10 (20)
Nash had a nice season for Cornell, although it should be mentioned that most of the really good college kids are at the pro level when at 20. Vande Velde's season is solid, but we should remember that 4th year college kids (especially the 22-year olds) should dominate college. Shawn Horcoff's 21-year old NHLE was 11-41-52 and he was in the NHL halfway through his first pro season (2000-01). Still, Vande Velde's progress has been impressive.
Petry (now signed by the Oilers, he played in Springfield last night) looks like a match for Chorney offensively and from all reports has a much better chance to become an effective defender at the pro level. I think the Oilers sign Vande Velde and possible Dee. Glasser gets passed over, Bigos will go back to college. Petry is already signed and that leaves Nash. I think we should be prepared for him to commit to another Cornell season and that may mean he's dealt sometime during the summer.
It would be a mistake. From this list, Nash and Vande Velde are the forwards with a wide range of skills (and Petry is similar in this way). The rest of the college group should be considered window dressing, with those three prospects worth developing. If Nash does turn pro (as Millard has suggested should happen) I believe a lot of people will be surprised by this kid's level of skill and ability. Some of them may even be Oiler employees.
Nash is gone! You do not trade him unless you get at a second pick better than #51. the compensation pick we get when he signs with another team after his senior season.
ReplyDeleteHaving Vande Velde turn into a player would be great for the Oilers, as he is exactly what the team needs in their bottom six if the rumours are true.
ReplyDeleteGood skating, size, physicality, grit, and all around game. Sounds like a perfect fit.
Copper and Blue has an interview from Feb with Chris and he appears to have a great attitude as well. When asked what he needs to improve on to play in the NHL he responds with "Defence and Tenacity".
That's a welcome change from most of Edmonton's young players who can't stop talking about bringing their fucking offence to the NHL.
If Nash doesn't sign this off season, do the Oilers lose his rights?
ReplyDeleteRick: sorry? He is gone? You do not trade him? He's gonna Wheeler us? This doesn't fit together for me.
ReplyDeleteThis club sure does seem to have an aversion to role players with unique skill sets. We want guys who are mediocre at everything, rather than guys who are great at some things and are put in a position to succeed at doing them.
I think that, management problems aside, there's a coaching philosophy that's hurting our ability to match up with balanced lines.
If Quinn was coaching the Eskimos, he'd probably send the D home and get the O the play both ways.
Old-timey style.
The Oilers also signed college free agents Matt Beca, a right-winger with Clarkson College, and University of Nebraska-Omaha defenceman Eddie Del Grosso to AHL amateur tryouts. Beca had 123 points in 139 career games.
ReplyDelete"Beca's not a great skater, but he scored a lot of goals at a bad program. Del Grosso is only five-foot-10, but we need somebody in Springfield who can move the puck.
The article didn't mention Beca is 5.10, 181.
5.10, 181 and "not a great skater"
That's a recipe for something.
I was a big supporter of Nash staying in college. It was a win-win for him. He stays away from the Springfield Isotopes, and he gets his scholarship pays his ticket for a very expensive tuition bill.
ReplyDeleteBut he's only got one year of school left. In fact, I bet he could even finish doing summer courses, maybe even transfer courses. If he's gotten good grades, and the school likes him, they'd surely let him come back whenever he wants: summers between seasons, or when his career is finished. I suppose he'd have to pay the tuition for that last year, but even if he's playing in the AHL with a rare cup of coffee, he should be able to save a bit of cash, and go back and finish the degree whenever he wants to.
Moreover, I think he's done about as much at that level as he can. It's time to try the pro game, and I'm pretty sure he's gonna do it.
Mr DeBakey:
ReplyDeleteDo you have a link to that article?
I thought Springfield signed Beca and Del Grosso to ATA's.
LT:
ReplyDeleteConfused by your 2009-10 stats for the college guys. Were those end of the season stats?
I see Nash with 35 points not 39, Vande Velde with 41 (so far) not 34, Petry with 29 not 26, Bigos with 11 not 10.
I'm half asleep and headed to a funeral so my mind might be lagging.
I sense both frustration and insider knowledge when I read Millard's latest missive so I think there's a lot to consider when he opines that maybe college is more important to Nash.
ReplyDeleteAwhile back the Oilers had a bunch of collegiate offensive dmen - plus Bisallion - and you knew they all wouldn't survive the cut and now with all of Lander-Nash-VDV in the pipe and all pivots you wonder which of these guys see the light of day for the long haul.
It would be nice to see this team in OKC:
ReplyDeleteMinard-Vet or Wiseman-Vet orFretter
MPS-Nash-Eberle
Linglet-VandeVelde-Reddox
Trukhno-O'Marra-Tough Veteran
Arsene-Peckham
Petry-Chorney
Motin-Plante
Veteran
Dubnyk
Deslauriers
Probably not enough good AHL vets on that team to be a real winner, but making the playoffs would be fairly probable. And, of course, it's a pipe dream to expect to get all our guys who should be in the AHL, actually in the AHL. But it would be fun to see, I think.
It might be a mistake to trade Nash, but given the organization's (read: Prendergast's) reaction to his decision to stay at Cornell, maybe Riley is just as unhappy with the Oilers?
ReplyDeleteTwo-way street, folks.
Guy: LT is using Desjardins NHL equivalencies, and prorating to 82 GP.
ReplyDeleteah.
ReplyDeleteso number in bracket is age? and other number are hypothetical stats in a full 82-game season at the NHL level based on production in college?
Guy: As Bruce posted, these are Desjardins NHL equivalencies. I know you're not too terribly much into them, but they do seem to tell a bit of a story.
ReplyDeleteAnd this is also in 82 games form, and the age is in brackets.
ReplyDeleteNash is quoted in this article today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.stargazette.com/article/20100326/SPORTS03/3260386/1119/Cornell-hockey-team-left-stunned
"I honestly have no idea what's going to happen between now and the start of next season," Nash said. "It's going to be one day at a time. If I could give you an answer right now I would, but I can't so I'm not sure."
LT-
ReplyDeleteIf he truly doesn't know what happens next, one could assume that the puck is in the Oiler's zone, at this point. If RN was determined to finish his degree, he would likely have suggested that. Maybe. Or not.
Ben: I think it comes down to the fact that Nash is his own man. He may:
ReplyDelete1. actually want to complete his degree
2. want to try to help Cornell win a championship one final time
3. feel his development won't be helped by going to an AHL team with (quite frankly) a poor track record.
4. keep his options open.
I think Nash might be (like Ken Dryden was) a thinking man. These are usually described as "pain in the ass" types by hockey people.
LT
ReplyDeleteOn a similar note:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ross_tucker/03/22/stereotypes/index.html?eref=sihp
Ross Tucker is a Princeton grad who played in the NFL for 7 years and he's writing about how Myron Rolle is getting down graded on draft charts for having won a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford and wanting to be a neurosurgeon when his playing days are done.
thank god for this blog! and all u commenters, too.
ReplyDeletepost lockout, this place has been more entertaining than rexall place, that's for sure
Yeah, that Randy Gregg guy sure was a pain in the ass, what with that medical degree, frequent retirements, and Olympic tendencies. Didn't stop him from winning 5 Cups, though.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm watching the Flames/B's first intermission and Cam Neely goes up in the booth with Charlie Simmer and the Flames PPV host - who looks like she got her hair dyed at the same place as Mark Holmes - asks the boys about their time at the old Boston Garden.
ReplyDeleteSimmer talks about his old linemates and turns to Neely and says, "I guess your centre was Barry Pedersen."
He went on to catch himself but it still killed me to no end.
Bruce: Diabolical. Was this known? I remember during his interviews he did seem to know a lot of words.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers sign Vande Velde and possible Dee.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Robby feels the same, LT:
C&B: Are you planning on coming back for your senior year?
Dee: Yeah, for sure. I haven't really spoken with Edmonton at all, but that's the plan for right now. One day, I want to play in the NHL, so I do whatever I can to prepare myself each and every day to eventually meet my ultimate goal of getting there.
C&B: Does Edmonton stay in touch with you?
Dee: A little bit, not so much as of late, but I try not to worry about that so much. I just try to play my game. If they call me, I'll talk to them, which they did a little bit last year. I'm sure they're watching so I don't worry about it.
Coach: Well,he did improve a lot this past season. So maybe keeping him in college one more year makes a better pro.
ReplyDeleteDee is listed at 6.02, 195 on the Maine website. Has anyone seen him play? How big is he?
LT - he's not small, but he seems rail-thin.
ReplyDelete@ Bank Shot - that's one of my two favorite quotes in all of the interviews that I've done so far.
ReplyDeleteC&B: What are you really going to have to work on to make the jump?
VandeVelde: Probably defensive play. Everyone in the National Hockey League is skilled and so much smarter and better positionally, so work on my defensive game and work on being tougher, those are going to be the big things I think. I'm going to have to play with a little more tenacity and know my role. If I can do that, we'll see what next year brings.
My other?:
C & B: You've been described as a power forward and from some photos we can see that your physique is impressive. What sort of physical training do you do in-season? What about during the off-season?
Hartikainen: Yes, I'm similar to a power forward. I try to get to the front of the net a lot and I like to hit often.
It's a seachange from the stuff we've been subjected to for a few years.
I attended a dinner a few weeks back where I was seated with a few good friends and a current UND player. Naturally we got to talking hockey and his experiences in the NCAA and eventually it came out that I'm an Oiler fan (which is becoming more and more fun to bring up publicly...) and so I ask what his thoughts are on Riley Nash at Cornell. Guy cuts me off halfway through the question and says "if you're an Oiler fan, the one guy who need to know about is Chris VandeVelde - that guy can do everything."
ReplyDeleteSo there you have it folks. A friend of a friend saw VdV good - he's an all-star, book it! :)
Also, for anyone who cares about CIS puck, my Bisons trail the St. Mary's Huskies 2-0 in CIS semifinal action on Sportsnet West right now.
ReplyDelete//I think Nash might be (like Ken Dryden was) a thinking man. These are usually described as "pain in the ass" types by hockey people.//
ReplyDeleteOr maybe just the second coming of Shawn Horcoff?
(And I mean that in a good way).
"if you're an Oiler fan, the one guy who need to know about is Chris VandeVelde - that guy can do everything."
ReplyDeleteHe can. Penalty kill, power play, tough matchups, killer on the dot, physical, defensive, offensive - there isn't much more you could ask for a senior in the NCAA.
And he already knows he has to get better defensively and know his role.
The Oilers need more like him.
if you're an Oiler fan, the one guy who need to know about is Chris VandeVelde - that guy can do everything.
ReplyDeleteWell, okay. But how well can he do it?
I like Nash and hope they don't piss him away for nothing. No insights on his decision to stay or not but I for one don't buy the argument that he is going to stay around to try and help them win a championship.
ReplyDeleteMost of their best players including Scrivens and Greening graduate (as does his brother) and it is a very long shot that the upcoming group can come close to winning a national championship. If he stays he either really wants an ivy education or has no intention of signing with the Oilers. If it is the latter they should cut bait for maximum value.
I think I have learned more useful information this morning on this thread than I would from reading the Oilers official site all year long. Brilliant stuff.
ReplyDeleteI am a fan of the Ken Dryden/Randy Gregg/Shawn Horcov/Riley Nash thinking player types. Probably just as much because they are atypical for hockey players as that they are interesting. If the Oilers give up on Nash (without taking the time to make sure he can play) that will just be one more bone I have to pick with the guys running the show.
Showerhead:
ReplyDeleteThat the CIS would allow Danton to play collegiate hockey is an absolute joke. Wonder what he's majoring in?
Also, get off your ass Mr. Representative and get me that new football stadium I read about in the paper today.
It appears the Flames have voted the Sutters off the island. What are the odds MacT end sup behind the bench in Calgary next season?
ReplyDeleteBoston 5
ReplyDeleteCalgary 0
Final
Hahahahahaha
Iggy was being interviewed and talked about winning the last 8 of 11, then promptly lost to the Islanders and the Bruins.
It appears the Flames have voted the Sutters off the island.
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about the players quitting on them, or ownership firing them?
I can't find anything on the latter.
MacT will take over the Rangers next year.
ReplyDeleteBook it.
One of the (few) things we can thank Lowe for is that he never mortgaged the future betting on the present like Daryl Sutter did. No coaching merry-go-round either.
ReplyDeleteJust stupid whale-hunting and misplaced loyalty to the pluggers who took us to the final in 2006.
For all that is wrong with the Oilers, it is fixable with a couple of intelligent 2nd tier free agent signing, and developing the pipeline of prospects.
This is what you need to know about UND and Chris Vande Velde. They came out of the gate like world beaters this season, then in a game against St. Cloud State, on a brutal and illegal hit, they lost their team captain and superstar in the making, Chay Genoway. He suffered a year ending, and maybe career ending concussion.
ReplyDeleteFrom that moment the Fighting Sioux could do nothing right. Fast forward to February when they finally had a rematch against St. Cloud, in St. Cloud, back to back games. On Friday night, Chris Vande Velde, wearing the A on his chest (UND chose not to replace Genoway as Captain), came out and played an amazing game. He was everywhere at both ends of the ice. He worked his butt off, two points, penalty killing, blocking shots. His team still lost, a heart breaking loss.
You could see on Saturday the Fighting Sioux were done. They were exhausted. The thing is somebody forgot to tell Vande Velde. He came out determined to send the entire St. Cloud team to the hospital. If he couldn't beat them on the ice he was going to beat them into the ice (for those of you who don't know scouts are fond of saying VV has a "hard edge"). All the time he was grinding them he was nattering away like Esa Tikkanen. Finally St. Cloud snapped and the stupid penalties began. Vande Velde made them pay (scoring the first goal on the pp and adding three assists) as UND won 8-1.
From there UND caught fire (I think they were 14-1). In their conference final, which they had to win to go to the final sixteen in the NCAA, they met, yes you guessed it, St. Cloud. St. Cloud scored twice early but UND rallied to lead 4-3, but throughout the third UND was trapped in its own end. UND's goalie was superb and twice VV stopped what seemed like sure goals. Then with three minutes left UND took a stupid penalty and an exhausted Vande Velde came out to kill it and once again you couldn't help thinking of Esa Tikkanen in his prime. St. Cloud just couldn't get the puck into anything that looked like a scoring position because he was everywhere they wanted to be.
However, it was what happened after the game that is now part of UND legend. The winning teams captain is supposed to accept the tournament trophy. That would be Vande Velde and Darcy Sajac. Vande Velde wouldn't take it. Instead he starts clapping and chanting "Genoway, Genoway". He even got the St. Cloud fans chanting it. Then he more or less dragged Genoway out on to the ice to accept the trophy.
So its not that he can do it all. Its that he is a hard edged agitator who keeps getting better and who wears his heart on his sleeve. He's the definition of character, something the Oilers need far more of and thats why I think he'll play here for many years.
He and Nash would be a great third line combo. Mr. Fire and Mr. Ice. Heart and Brain.
linnaeus,
ReplyDeleteWow.
That's a fantastic story.
I'm all jacked to see VV now.
With both VV and Lander coming, this team is going to have a real different attitude in two or three years from now. I hope there is room for both.
That the CIS would allow Danton to play collegiate hockey is an absolute joke.
ReplyDeleteDG: Watch this and see if you still agree with yourself. It's quite a story.
Danton has seemingly taken nothing but positive steps since going back to school. Seems like a win/win for both him and the CIS. I'll save my scorn for David Frost.
Btw, St. Mary's just finished crushing Manitoba 5-0, and will play in the University Cup Final tomorrow, hopefully against the Golden Bears.
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteThinking men are great contributors but are hard cases when Big Brother wants them to march to the same tune. All leaders have to suffer through something initially.
Woodguy - I was talking about the players packing it in - their response to Sutter's dressing room rage on Long Island.
ReplyDeleteAnd linnaeus - thanks - best thing I've read all weekend.
I just got back from the Tambellini lunch. No Laforge today, Allan Watt handled the arena hype.
ReplyDeleteHe started by saying that the injuries should have been an opportunity for a few guys who have been saying through their agents that they deserve more ice time. "They had a chance to show me what they could do. And we're in 30th place, so I guess now we know."
The buzzword for the day was flexibility - ditching contracts, being careful with the term of new deals.
I got a chance to ask my Khabibulin question. Tambo suggested that injuries were not a big concern as lots of guys are dinged up, and Khabi's fitness numbers were good.
He surprised me by saying that one big reason for the signing was as a mentor to the kids - he went on to throw Roloson under the bus and said that some vets are only looking out for themselves and will do anything to keep the other guy on the bench instead of sharing the net.
I also asked if flexibility was so important, how we gave a 35+ player a four-year deal with a cap hit that binds us no matter what. He didn't address that point at all.
''That the CIS would allow Danton to play collegiate hockey is an absolute joke.''
ReplyDeleteWe're giving a man a 2nd chance here. If we don't do so, there's no purpose in getting him out of prison.
It's a rehabilitation going very well.
Linnaeus: Nice story, got me excited about VV.
ReplyDeleteI hope the Oilers will examinate theyr status at draft day and will look out for Warriors, and not guys who can only fight.
"One of the (few) things we can thank Lowe for is that he never mortgaged the future betting on the present like Daryl Sutter did."
ReplyDeleteYeah, because one thing Kevin Lowe would never do would be to say, make an offer sheet that might cost 4 first round picks to Buffalo for an overhyped one season wonder.
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteNice work sir.
Any other impressions from the luncheon?
Any other questions or answers that stand out in your mind?
Overall impression of Steve Tambellini? (Don't need one of Watt, he's like a record that has been skipping in the same groove from 25 years)
I think it is hilarious that the Oilers.....not a particularly fan friendly management group.....is having a number of meet the GM, President, etc etc luncheons because they are trying to get the City, Province, Feds to gift them a 500 million dollar arena.....
ReplyDeleteSuspect that the last "meet the Prez/GM luncheons" the Oilers ever have is day the city/prov/feds do or do not commit to build them a free arena
In somewhat related, depressing news, Oilers ranked as worst franchise by 12% of players surveyed in a candid poll on TSN. Below florida even ffs. Link:http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=315609
ReplyDeleteBig whoop on the low finish on worst team to play for. These kinds of polls are stupid: if you're winning, people want to play for you. If you're not, they don't.
ReplyDeleteAny other impressions from the luncheon?
ReplyDeleteI think it's finally dawning on the Oilers that they need to tread lightly on this arena project. Watt caught himself more than once saying "when the arena is built at this location" and changing it to "if".
I think the Oilers are serious about rebuilding the farm team and implementing "Oilers hockey" at the AHL level. Tambo clearly identified that part of the sense of entitlement with our current team is that there's literally nobody bubbling under in the AHL who might challenge for a roster spot. Stockpiling assets is a priority.
Any other questions or answers that stand out in your mind?
When asked if he prefers Hall or Seguin, Tambo went out of his way to talk about how much he likes Cam Fowler.
Someone actually asked a follow-up question of "to be clear, we're picking one of Hall or Seguin, right?" and all Tambo said was "Why, am I making you nervous?".
Said that he was looking forward to having the most prized asset at the draft and is excited to hear what other teams have to offer to acquire it. He didn't say he was looking to move it, but said he'd be crazy not to listen to offers.
Said that they expected Grebs to opt for arbitration and were expecting an award of 3.75 - 4.0 million, which they couldn't afford on another puck-moving defenceman. Said Nashville was the only team willing to make a trade without requiring the Oilers to take salary back.
Said that he made every single move available to him at the deadline. Sounds like nobody was answering his phone calls about Moreau, Pisani or Comrie.
Took a shot at Dan Barnes and said they wouldn't be bringing Eberle up just because some sports writer thinks it would be a neat story.
Someone suggested that our "mentors" on the team were all two-way players and asked if there was any plans to bring in an offence-first mentor for the kids. Tambo loves the idea, talked about his own time with the Islanders and said that when Potvin or Bossy made a suggestion, you listen to them. I think that it's fair to read "Jagr" between those lines.
Overall impression of Steve Tambellini?
He talks a good game, but I found it really tough to get a read on him. First he's talking flexibility like our cap hell was all Kevin Lowe's fault, but then he wouldn't answer my question about the Khabi signing.
He said that players need time in the AHL to learn what it takes to become a professional and how tough it is to stick at the NHL level, but then turned around and said that if our #1 pick or Eberle show up in camp and prove they belong at the NHL level he would keep them with the big team.
It's tough to tell where the team goes from here. I don't know if they have the self-control to take the longer, tougher road instead of looking for quick fixes.
Yale beats UND 3-2. On the brightside, Yale is captained by St. Albert boy Ryan Donald, on the downside, VVV's run at the frozen four is over.
ReplyDeleteFrom my phone so short: I've got a sudden fear. What if Tambellini is so caught in the Eberle/MPS hype he thinks they're too well off at F to miss Fowler? Scares the shit out of me.
ReplyDeleteMacGregor is making the pick. Forwards have more value (just do) unless this Fowler kid is another Potvin (which he isn't).
ReplyDeleteThis is all just prattle. My worry is that they've already decided on Hall and won't evaluate Seguin's clear progress with an unbiased eye.
And if they do take Fowler then we'll all be able to live through an "Al Gore" Bonsignore moment. The internet highway may not survive.
Schitzo,
ReplyDeleteI am actually encouraged by your report.
I have the same fear as L.T. In that Hall's jersey is already crested.
On the other hand, you have 89,10 with Lander, VV, and L.T.'S bastard son as options at C.... Not to mention 13...
I still agree that winning teams are stong at C, and while Hall won't hurt, he just won't help as much as Seguin.
Good quandary to have, we could be Flames fans and be looking forward to the 2012 draft.
Hahahahaha, man I hate the Flames.
When asked if he prefers Hall or Seguin, Tambo went out of his way to talk about how much he likes Cam Fowler.
ReplyDeleteSomeone actually asked a follow-up question of "to be clear, we're picking one of Hall or Seguin, right?" and all Tambo said was "Why, am I making you nervous?".
Said that he was looking forward to having the most prized asset at the draft and is excited to hear what other teams have to offer to acquire it. He didn't say he was looking to move it, but said he'd be crazy not to listen to offers.
If they have a top 2 pick, and draft that phudu Cam Fowler, I will take a long, long hiatus from Oilers hockey.
The part of listening to offers is reasonable - I just don't have the confidence in Tambellini to win such a deal. It would most likely be a quantity for quantity deal - the prudent thing to do here is draft Hall/Seguin, and build a team around. Franchise faces like those can be a draw to attract UFA's/retain own free agents.
Unless someone offers a Lindros-esque package, there is absolutely no reason to trade the first round pick.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNote: when listing future C, was referring to who has the job in 2-3 years.
ReplyDeleteAs per this thread...who knows about Nash.
Too bad for VV. I find myself wondering what he may have learnt from the roller coaster ride of a year? If it has reinforced his belief that he needs to work harder at the defensive end of the game and be even more tenacious we can all look forward to a brighter future for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteSimply put, I think change is coming to the Oilers whether they want it or not. It has already begun and nobody can stop it. First round picks get their at bats. There is also real pressure to let kids who over-achieve play.
In the next two or three years Eberle, Peckham, Plante, Nash (if he signs), Vande Velde, MPS, Lander, Hartikainen, Seguin/Hall and Petry are going to be getting major minutes. Then there are the new faces (Whitney, and Johnson). Stone and Jones are probably also going to get real chances over a full season to show what they can do.
I don't know what this new team is going to look like. However, it won't be passive. It also won't have much quit in its collective personality.
What you'd like to think is that somebody in the organization is looking at the emerging talent and thinking, hmmm, what would complementary pieces look like?
Woodguy & Schitzo - I was at one of the season ticket holder lunches a couple of weeks back and for the most part, I liked what I heard. But, and admittedly it's a gigantic sized but, I'll believe it when I see him execute his plan. I worry that this month's answers about the Chicago model might change by next month when the next flavor of the month has success in the playoffs and we switch to the Phoenix / Washington / Boston model. Hell, we might as well go with the Montreal model - we're the only team that has as many small forwards as they do, all we're missing is a couple of goalies.
ReplyDeleteI think Tambellini has a sense of humour, who knew. There is no way they take Fowler. If we traded down to third we'd take the cycling monster from the Winter Hawks not another D.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet my bottom dollar that if Columbus was third over all and we were second we'd take Moore and the third. Then we'd draft El Nino and annouce ourselves well pleased. Otherwise we'll draft in order and by ranking. If we are first and Seguin is the consensus 1 we'll take him.
Only the stupidest team imaginable trades away the right to pick first or second in the draft.
ReplyDeleteThe fans suffer(and pay) through the season from hell, only for the geniuses who got the team in 30th place to trade away the only consolation prize?
An entire generation of fans have known the Oilers to be no more than a marginal, bad team. Once upon a time the fans simply stopped attending the games, and even Oilers management should be aware of this.
Tambellini's just talking the usual baloney all first place lottery teams GM's talk.
Should they pick first, I'd bet all my v-cash on them picking Hall, for no other reason that he looks like Messier.
ReplyDeletehunter: I think they pick Hall because he's a "first shot scorer." Even though Seguin is his equal in this regard the die has been cast.
ReplyDeleteShould they choose Fowler, as PJ Oil says we'll just move along. There's only so much fun you can have cheering for morons.
Hunter, LT,
ReplyDeleteI think you guys miss that current Oilers managment are risk avoiding demons more than they are pleasure seeking optimizers. If the consensus is Seguin they'll take him because to do otherwise is too risky. Trading down to take Nino is the only option they would consider because a) he'll play in the NHL, barring injury he will play, though maybe only on your third line. I'm purely guessing it would take Moore to get them to do it. The return is going to have to be spectacular in any case, to a point of making it insane for the other team and they'd never do it with the first only the second. The risk of missing "the player" would be too high in their mind for exactly the reason you said Hunter. It just lessens with the second pick.
Risk avoiding demons? What now?
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteWe all know people who will do anything to avoid risks. In game theory you say they are possessed by a demon, a terribly predictable demon. It will avoid risks at all cost. It is like the Chinese and face, they really don't like to lose face. It makes them somewhat predictable.
It is much harder to predict a pleasure seeker. You have to know what they find pleasurable and how they rank different pleasures. Not obvious at all.
What I am saying is the Oilers management want to look good. Thus, no way they trade down from first. If the consensus is Seguin they take Seguin, same reason. If on the other hand Hall goes #1 to somebody else, and they are picking #2 things change. If somebody wants Seguin desperately enough to make an insane offer the Oilers will consider it. This only works because there is a no risk pick available at that point. NN is no risk because he can already play defense well enough every NHL coach can see he will be a superb third line checker if nothing else.
The reason Tambellini is joking about Fowler is because Fowler is probably the biggest risk in the draft, big upside, huge downside. Tambellini thinks it will be apparent to everybody that only an idiot would pick Fowler and he knows, at least in his own mind, he isn't an idiot. Hope that helps.
The Edmonton Oilers management group make a curious decision every hour on the hour. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteSummer 2006 right through this morning most of us are just trying to find a sane explanation.
They're not hedge betters, they're bloodletters.
L.T.,
ReplyDeleteI don't have the numbers handy, but apparently when you look at 5v5 goal scoring Seguin is in a class above Hall.
In MBS I trust.
Let's consider some of the more recent moves. They trade Grebs for too little. Tambellini says they were scared of what he'd get in arbitration. They were scared of an event that hadn't happened yet. They broke the bank for an aging golaie because they were afraid they wouldn't have a goaltender. They traded Viz for Whitney because the later has a smaller salary and is way lower event. They moved Staois because they were afraid the fans would revolt if they didn't get rid of one of the over pays and nobody wanted Moreau. It is all about risk avoidance. They took Jones off waivers because he was too good to ignore. If they passed and he turned out to be what his college numbers suggested they would have looked like idiots.
ReplyDeleteThat is my thoery and I am sticking to it.
haha ron just mentioned Corsi on coaches corner. Watching him try to explain it to Cherry was hilarious.
ReplyDeleteCherry's response? "Its a dum dum system"
Cherry is partially correct. Ryan Johnson's Corsi IS irrelveant. His job is to win faceoffs, kill penalties, and get the puck out of his own end in a limited minutes role.
ReplyDeleteFor a player with a narrowly defined role like that, Corsi is irrelevant.
Ya im not saying Corsi is the be all and end all of hockey stats -but it is useful.
ReplyDeleteLike most other stats it needs to be taken in the right context.
Cherry being the narrowed minded fellow that he is just blows it off as voodoo.
linneaus: No it isn't, it is about bloodletting and howling at the moon. This is pure Punch Imlach.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else catch the Flames rumour on Satellite Hotstove?
ReplyDeleteKen King gets shown the door because he won't fire D. Sutter.
The new Pres/CEO brings in Steve Yzerman to be GM.
That would be fun to watch.
I guess Murray Edwards would need to come down from Olympus to punt King.....naw he's just get Hotchkiss to do it.
Rider Guy,
ReplyDeleteThe whole "now were following the Chicago model" thing sticks in my craw too.
Pick a goddam plan, make it a good one, and see it through...amending as situations arise, but not going through a whole paradigm shift every 40 games.
"It is like the Chinese and face, they really don't like to lose face. It makes them somewhat predictable."
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese snuck a 250,000 man army right up under the noses of the Americans in the Korean War, and came within an ace of tossing them right off the peninsula in the process. They're anything but predictable.
But when you infer that Oilers management is capable of trading away the chance to draft a great talent for a third line player, well, that really does sound like the world's biggest drug store.
LT: speaking of one shot scorers I heard young Hall's been talking to the Manheim Eagles so he's probably our pick;)
ReplyDeleteHunter, every now and again you say something that's just dead on. Had me laughing with that Chinese predictability rebuke. To be fair though, the Americans just couldn't fathom that the Chinese would send troops against them.
ReplyDeleteI don't feel strongly about Hall or Seguin, but I just hope they get the right one. Odds are they'll both pan out as impact players at the very least. I still get nervous though, since there's always a Moreau, Staios etc. that get drafted fairly high and become very good NHL players, but never game changers. I don't dare think about a Kelly, or gods forbid a Bonsignore.
uni - yeah it may happen but really what the hell do you do in that case eh? Daigle was a guaranteed star and he wasn't the first or last. The year Jagr went there were five guys and all five turned out to have quality careers but the best of them went fifth iirc.
ReplyDeleteTake Seguin or Hall. I like Seguin but if they take Hall and he is an absolute bust I won't say a damn thing. These two guys are consensus top two. Take one. No way you can say I told you so if either of them busts.
I'd still take Seguin though. ;)
As for the topic at hand, I like the look of Vande Velde even if he should have laid up that one time and I like Nash too. If he chooses not to sign I wouldn't blame him a bit. A year of getting filled? No thanks. And if the Oilers do not sign him I'll bet he gets a soft landing somewhere.
Tambellini is great. That Fowler troll will get the internets full of long winded posts of nerd rage.
ReplyDeleteAs to Hall/Seguin. Unless something big happens in the playoffs the Oilers will be taking Hall.
He's been in the spotlight for four or so years now and been performing. He has that track record people like to see.
According to Dean Millard the Oilers signed Matt Beca from Clarkson. A story nice on him here:
ReplyDeletehttp://iphone.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2010/01/28/sp-hdic-beca.html
I'm with you on that Woodguy. I think you have to have a definite plan of how you are going to rebuild the team into a contender and forget the label of the Chicago Model or the Detroit Model. Pick a strategy going forward and whatever you do, stick with it and avoid stupid mistakes like signing old, injury prone, not very good, former Stanley Cup winning goalies, "trading" for disgruntled me first superstars who have stomped their feet until 2 teams had to trade them, offering the moon for 4th line tough guys that can't play and only be bailed out because they take a hometown discount to stay in Ottawa and on and on and on.
ReplyDeleteI hope that Tambo's actions match his words and that the paradigm truly shifted this year and that he's not just saying what the fans want to hear. We'll know if he goes Whale Hunting on July 1st if he really means it.
As for his talk about seeing what temas are offering for the pick...as long as it's just talk, I don't have a problem with it. At least until the lottery happens we don't even know if we're in the drivers seat or we are going to be left with what Boston doesn't want. If he actively starts peddling the thing, I'll be at the Oilers offices with a can of gas and a book of matches, but it never hurts to talk and see what's out there.
On another note, the march to clinching 30th continues. The Islanders are officially out of reach, Florida and Carolina need 1 more point each and any combination of the Leafs earning 4 points of the Oilers losing 4 points clinches 30th.
All the reports over the years on VDV have been very positive. I'm looking forward to seeing him play next pre-season.
ReplyDeleteWe're lacking in guys who are tough to play against and actually have NHL skills. Hopefully he's one.
I think the Oil, in light of Horc, Gagner, VDV, Nash, Lander etc will draft the winger. A sniper to play with Gagner. Only future can tell if that's the right move or not but my guess is that's the one they make.
Fowler is a troll for offers imo.
ReplyDeleteTry to get the team picking second to offer something up for the privilege of getting their 'guy'. The only way to do that is to:
a. be in a position where they clearly want the #1 pick
b. be in a position where they clearly want a player and have to have the #1 to ensure they get the player
By pumping Fowler the Oilers are trying to inject a second option (another team) of fear per 'b' above.
Being too obvious about it though imo.
I like VV better than Nash (even though I think Nash has better upside) and think they are both keepers - only VV is untouchable oddly enough. Honest... don't know why.
His job is to win faceoffs and get the puck out of his own end in a limited minutes role.
ReplyDeleteFor a player with a narrowly defined role like that, Corsi is irrelevant.
Rel Corsi, correlated to zone start and Qual comp., with a large sample size, gives a reliable indication of how good a playyer is at keeping the puck out of his own zone. If you're better at getting the puck out of the zone, you and you're linemates are going to generate more shots for and fewer against.
Ken King is the Peter Principle personified, ad infinitum.
ReplyDeleteYet as long as there is a used car somewhere in the world, he'll have a job.
The Flames deserve all the losing they get.
"To be fair though, the Americans just couldn't fathom that the Chinese would send troops against them."
ReplyDeleteUnless they're in a John Wayne technicolor war, Americans internationally are about as astute as a three year old kid with a .357 magnum.
For this I blame Disney, and the insidious Mickey Mouse club - which teaches American children that all non-Americans are nothing more than comical buffoons. As a result you end up with left wing yanks who were brainwashed by Mickey, or Right wing yanks who were brainwashed exactly the same way by the evil rodent of Anaheim.
He's been in the spotlight for four or so years now and been performing. He has that track record people like to see.
ReplyDeleteCome on Smarmy. No one likes to look at track record. Remember everyone wants to trade Omark and he trends like, Sedins, Forsburg, and naslund in his last SEL year. His U23 KHLgoal scoring year trends like Kovulchuk, Ovechkin, Malkin, and Frolov.
I say trade the first overall pick to make all the guys who want to trade Omark feel better.