It looks for all the world like the Edmonton Oilers did it right. Giving all those minutes to the inexperienced, the undersized, the wannabes, the has-beens and the never-weres have had the desired result: Edmonton will own the #1 or #2 pick at the 2010 Entry Draft.
Oh sure, something could still go wrong. The Oilers could talk themselves into Cam Fowler or trade the pick for 10 cents on the dollar, but it is a good bet Edmonton will call out the name "Hall" or "Seguin" when the time comes.
As for the rest of the draft, it appears to be taking shape. When you see this much movement this late in a draft year it usually means that the quality is uneven. This one (so far) reminds me of the 2002 entry draft, which perfectly reflects my point.
The Oilers used their first round pick that season on Finn C Jesse Niinimaki (epic fail) but were able to pick up three NHL players in round two (Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene and Jeff Deslauriers). Redline has mentioned a lack of quality defensmen in this year's draft, which may mean more value is placed on kids like Fowler, Forbort and Mark Pysyk.
There is some late disagreement from a couple of the scouting services on the top 10 for this season. Here's the Redline top 10 with ISS's grade in brackets.
- Taylor Hall (2)
- Tyler Seguin (1)
- Vladimir Tarasenko (4)
- Nino Niederreiter (9)
- Derek Forbort (10)
- Cam Fowler (3)
- Mikael Granlund (14)
- Brandon Gormley (5)
- Kirill Kabanov (7)
- Jeff Skinner (15)
Redline is the better list, although they do some weird things every year (ranking Fowler at 6, for instance). The list to watch for is the final Bob McKenzie list, out a week or so before the entry draft.
I think Oiler fans can count on one of the OHL forwards come draft day and if the Oilers draft trends hold true the 2nd round pick will be a BPA pick. It'll likely be the third round when Stu "Magnificent Bastard" MacGregor fills for need and grabs a knuckle-dragger forward and a tall tree on the blue.
Man, Hall just looks like such a dope in every picture. Doesn't mean a damn thing of course, maybe he's a genius.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Redline still has him ranked #1, they have had a few not so nice things to say about his attitude.
Outside of the really exceptional talents (Doughty), is drafting defensemen even worth it? They take so long to develop that under the new CBA they're UFAs by the time you're ready to get real value from them. Put another way, how many top pairing defensemen are there who aren't UFA-eligible? I don't know the answer to that question, but my guess is that it's in the single digits.
ReplyDeleteThe same might be true of goaltenders - maybe more so.
Of course, if everyone started thinking like that, it would produce some interesting results. But as long as not everyone is, should the Oilers?
Steve: Traditionally the Oilers draft a defenseman with their second pick (Chorney, Plante) and it usually happens in the second round (Greene, Petry).
ReplyDeleteI'm okay with that because (as you say) they develop slowly and therefore pressure their UFA date by the time they're any good.
That squared for goalies.
Unless a goalie is obviously dominant at all levels he has played there really isn't any reason to draft one unless you pick him in the right spot.
ReplyDeleteThey take too long to develop, their development curve is more like a sine wave for most, and there is an overabundance of them, so for goalie procurement you should really be scouting the AHL hard and pick up guys for next to nothing and develop AHL goalies or mature Euros, not kids.
The Olivier Roy pick is a perfect example of where to pick a goalie. From wiki:
He was ranked as the second-best North American goaltender available by the NHL Central Scouting Services going into the 2009 NHL Entry Draft in Montreal.[1] On June 27, 2009, he was selected by the Edmonton Oilers in the fifth round (133rd overall) of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.
That's perfect.
As for doing something stupid, I agree with LT and the 3rd round pick will have us all scratching our heads, but the 1st and 2nd round will be by the book (if they don't trade their 2nd round picks)
Last year MPS fell in the Oilers laps so you really can't say "Good job Stu" on that pick, but picking Lander 40th might be one of those picks you are still talking about years later, and bloggers for other teams rail against their management for passing on this guy once or twice.
My crystal ball tells me that in 4 years when someone runs a list of tough minutes out-scorers that Lander will show up "out of the blue" kinda like Stephen Weiss.
Just in time for the mad Russian's actual salary to be below his cap hit and he becomes a more trade-able commodity.
Thank you Stu, you Magnificent Bastard.
Also,
ReplyDeleteI have no problem with making the "reach" picks at 3rd and lower.
The odds on the BPA in these rounds actually playing an NHL game is about 10% if memory serves.
This is a much better spot to see if you smarter than everyone else, because in the 1st round, you aren't (unless you pick Hemsky)
Since the Leafs game I've been in a kind of postseason funk, since with number 1 or 2 guaranteed there's nothing to cheer for/against. Weird.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope they take Taylor Hall, not that I know anything. Oilers pick too many idiots, which is precisely why it's a 30th place team, without an playoff home opener since the 80's.
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ReplyDeleteHelp me fellas
ReplyDeleteI'm feelin' kind-a weak
The way I'm livin' just ain't right
I need somebody t' watch over me
All my blue moon nights
coach: haiku? nice.
ReplyDeleteSo LT when do you do your off-season wishlist post? Seems like the only thing I can think about right now is the moves i hope they make and the moves i expect them to make (unfortunately they are rarely in line. Why do i feel so sure they'll screw up the off season).
ReplyDeleteDBO: I don't think a haiku is the thing that you think it is
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSteve: I agree, in fact after the lockout was over and the new CBA was released, I wrote wrotesomething wondering if the lowered UFA age might lead to a shift towards selecting more F and less G and D. I haven't looked into that, I wonder if that has been the case?
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: I don't necessarily disagree about reach picks, but the player has to have a high upside. If a 5th round pick like Rajala busts because he's too small, that's too bad but I think it's probably worth taking the chance he can handle the NHL at that size because if he can you will get rewarded for your pick. It's less clear that you're getting a good enough risk/reward trade off drafting Abney in the 3rd, IF his upside is 4th line fighter or 3rd line winger.
wondering if the lowered UFA age might lead to a shift towards selecting more F and less G and D. I haven't looked into that, I wonder if that has been the case?
ReplyDeleteIf it hasn't been the case, it should be. It's not just the earlier UFA age with this CBA, it's the waiver requirement.
Developing young defencemen sucks because they need to go through waivers just as they become useful as a callup (see Peckham next season). You're better off keeping 8 veteran defencemen on your roster and bringing up 21 year old forwards as needed.
Riddle me this:
ReplyDeleteHow many picks do the Oilers have in rounds 2 and 3? I can only find their name down once but I thought I heard they had 6 picks in the top 3 rounds.
But baby was awake last night and my mind is less than sluggish.
BTW LT, that was a great parenting suggestion you had last thread. But I'm not sure how it would work with my two that want to bike all the time! ;)
Bar Qu: Looks to me like Oilers picks are at 1, 31, 49, 61, and possibly 78.
ReplyDeleteIt's less clear that you're getting a good enough risk/reward trade off drafting Abney in the 3rd, IF his upside is 4th line fighter or 3rd line winger.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds,
Agreed.
The thing is that the Oilers think Abney's upside is Lucic-esque.
Mind you, I think Lucic is an over rated and way, way overpaid player who unless on a line with 2 all stars, has an upside of 3rd/4th winger.
Also,
ReplyDeleteAbney was the Oilers's 2nd pick in the 3rd round at 82.
They took another "reach" pick at 71 with 6'2 D-man Troy Hesketh, which is what I prefer to see for reaches in the 3rd round too. That pick probably has waaaaaaaay more upside than Abney.
Maybe MBS (Magnificent Bastard Stu) had a directive to take his more fridge like reaches early and the smaller/goalie ones late?
Given that both Roy and Rajala were still available late, they obviously know something we don't about the drafting tendencies of the other teams as well, and took that into consideration.
Thanks Lebowski
ReplyDeleteI guess it is just 10 picks in the overall draft (2 in the second round) with a possible additional pick in the seventh round from the devils.
I don't have a problem with the Oil sticking to BPA in rounds 1 and 2 and going AWOL (Jamie Farr-style) in round three. And if they find hidden treasure in any rounds after that or trade for actual bodies, even better.
Still MC's plan of RFA raiding is better considering the Oil have extra picks.
With multiple picks in the 2nd round, I think the pressure might come down on Stu to start drafting for need earlier than round 3. I hope I'm wrong, though.
ReplyDeleteWith multiple picks in the 2nd round, I think the pressure might come down on Stu to start drafting for need earlier than round 3. I hope I'm wrong, though.
ReplyDeleteI don't think drafting for need is inherently bad; for example, if there are any seasoned NHL veterans in this year's draft, I think the Oilers should take them.
So all the ranking lists lump everyone together except CSS which separates NA skaters, NA goalies, Eur skaters, and Eur goalies.
ReplyDeleteTherefore this list at CNN/SI http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2002/04/25/final_rankings/
is a CSS ranking (I will have to learn how to create a link).
If you do the copy paste thing and go to this address and scroll down to Eur skaters you will find the infamous Jesse Niniimaki at no. 50. So did Lowe and Prendergast have drug or booze problems in 2002?
I can't find the ISS 2002 list but eyeballing it Niniimaki must have been in the no. 200-250 range. Prendergast's explanation was along the lines that they were very impressed with him at some European tournament they scouted. Well that was a damn fine waste of money spent on that trip.
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ReplyDeleteCoach:
ReplyDeleteJohn Fogerty?
All I'm really hoping for is that both Hall and Seguin are very, very good NHL players. There have been alot of drafts in recent memory where the disparity between 1st & 2nd has been a franchise killer. I'm thinking specifically of Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf, Greg Oden-Kevin Durant, #2 Sam Bowie-#3 Michael Jordan....
Every draft can be looked at with 20/20 hindsight but I'm talking about situations where the pundits where arguing about which player to take with the #1 overall and as soon as those two players start playing in the bigs, it's immediately apparent who should have gone first. The Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf corollary fits this example the best. There was a real argument about which of these guys the Colts would pick. Manning is probably going to break every QB record, he's won a Super Bowl and he will be considered by most experts to be a Top 3 QB all-time (I can't stand this guy) when his career is over. Ryan Leaf was out of the NFL by the time he turned 26 and last year was arrested for burglary and controlled substance charges in Texas.
This might be the last time the Oiler's get an opportunity to draft a generational talent. They can't afford to fuck this up.
This might be the last time the Oiler's get an opportunity to draft a generational talent. They can't afford to fuck this up
ReplyDeleteWhich is why psychological testing should be a key determining factor when two players are so close in talent.
Which one tends towards self destruction? Which one tends towards over inflated egoism? (remember when Alexander Daige pronounced before the draft "No one will remember who is picked 2nd"
Well Alex, 2nd after you was Pronger (2nd), Paul Kariya (4th), Rob Niedermayer (5th), Jason Arnott (7th).
Which would set their own hair on fire if it meant winning the cup?
You know.. those sorts of things.
Steve - Do we know if any under-rated GMs are draft eligible this year? ;)
ReplyDeleteI think people like to throw around the term generational talent a bit too loosely.
ReplyDeleteSuperstar player with one of the top 2 picks is what you're looking at for this draft.
There is no Crosby or Ovechkin this go around, what we're hoping for here is a Stamkos, Kane level talent.
I'm not a psychologist so I have no idea, but how much value in pschological testing is lost, if any, in studying a subject when the subject has been heavily coached in how to respond to such interviews, tests, etc?
ReplyDeleteIs there some danger that you are simply identifying which one is the "better liar" - which one is better coached instead of identifying which one is actually the preferable individual in terms of personality?
Best psych test for these 2 guys is putting them in a room with Oil management, calling them over and seeing who actually comes and who sits there whining and whimpering that they don't wanna go with that guy.
ReplyDeleteErgo, your 'winner'.
Lebowski - to create a link you simply put {a href=" insert url "} and close the tag with {/a}. Use the <> as the brackets and it works easily.
Oh, BTW LT and you other bloggers. Apparently there is a connection between male self destructive behaviour and your blogging.
ReplyDeleteOf course, when you spend your time on the Oilers, maybe that is true.
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ReplyDeleteIs there some danger that you are simply identifying which one is the "better liar" - which one is better coached instead of identifying which one is actually the preferable individual in terms of personality?
ReplyDeleteSpeeds - At least the better liar is demonstrating that he can be coached, which is something, I guess.
Man, Hall just looks like such a dope in every picture.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same thing. He reminds me of Heatley.
Woodguy, I agree re the psychological testing. On the Gregor show Lowe said that the Oilers were doing such, plus face to face meetings and interviewing coaches. All in all he gave the impression that the org. was studying both in depth. So there is some comfort there.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see what Mackenzie's final list looks like, but I wonder if the Oil will pay much attention to that, having regard to not really following rankings in the past. No need to cite examples.
Maybe Stu M's strategy will prove to be much better.
By the way I haven't seen Prendergast in the news lately. My guess is that his leash is very short. I wonder if he'll even be at the draft table.
This might be the last time the Oiler's get an opportunity to draft a generational talent. They can't afford to fuck this up.
ReplyDeleteGiven that the #1 will likely only reach the point levels of an O'Sullivan or Nilsson in his first year, there is a very good chance they will be right back here next year, with or without the correct decision. The big difference will be that a new GM will be announcing the pick if its screwed up this year.
The Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf corollary fits this example the best
I guess there is always hope then.
I might as well say it. Other things being equal and because we will have to look at one of these guys for a long time in interviews and such, Seguin is definitely the more regular looking guy.
ReplyDeleteHall sort of reminds me of Craig Cameron.
speeds: Most modern psychological personality tests such as the MMPI-II have built-in safeguards to weed out liars.
ReplyDeleteBasically, in the hundreds of questions you answer many are asking related things that may not appear related. Different answers for these questions, possibly due to a desire to lie and appear good, will show up as having internal inconsistency.
That being said, administering tests like the MMPI (which is the gold standard in the area) require a certified psychologist to administer and decipher and that isn't cheap. That, combined with the few hours it takes to complete the test suggests that the team is probably using some lesser test which really has no validity or utility, and likely is easily duped by liars.
DBO,
ReplyDeleteThis is closer to a haiku:
Hall or Seguin
The Oilers suck really bad
Please God end this soon
Think line of 5,7, and 5 syllables. Apparently your alllowed to count some two syllable words that where the syllables run together, like "little" as one syllable.
Jon K - considering the total budgets involved, I would hope that psychological testing isn't an area where the Oil cheap out with Katz' money...
ReplyDeleteSpeeds,
ReplyDeleteI know the neuropsych testing for the mentally ill that my wife works with actually has a scale that is supposed to show how much the person tested was trying to answer the questions inauthentically. It sounds too much like something on Star Trek to be real to me but she says it works.
The methodology behind a lot of these tests is kind of LT-like, IMO. The way I hear these tests described is this: If person X gives similar answers to a group of people Y, a large percentage of whom display characteristic Z, you can then predict with a comparable degree of probability that X has Z, too. Cool, no?
"Generational talent" is being thrown around a little too loosely, w.r.t. these two Juniors, IMHO.
ReplyDeleteI haven't read anywhere that these guys are once in twenty years kind of players. They're not Crosby or Ovechkin.
If it's Oilers haikus you guys are after, try these ones from pre-season. Those were simpler times.
ReplyDeleteLT...
ReplyDeleteDidn't you have a recent post identifying five or six college free agents that The Brainstrust might want to consider pursuing?
I wanted to compare that list to the College FA one Woodlief has in the RLR you linked, but I can'ts seem to find it.
Hall looks like he has Buchburger's hair and lips Mr. Potato'ed onto Ethan Moreau's hatchet head.
ReplyDelete5-7-5 syllables. Usually has some reference to nature.
ReplyDeleteAnother attempt at haiku
Winter's white Spring's Green
Season passes, Oil reborn
With Young Man Drafted
Which of the two is more like Gagner/Horcoff and which is more like Torres/O'Sullivan (to paint with a rather broad brush)?
ReplyDeleteWho is the hunker down worker and who is more prone to whine or be a prima donna?
Who will fit in better, personality and character wise, with the Oiler's young core, such as it is?
Based on the info I have (which I admit is not a lot) I know who I am leaning towards.
Anybody else see this blurb in the EJ:
ReplyDelete- - The Oilers continue to go with only six defencemen on their NHL roster. Alex Plante, who did a nice job in a four-game audition several weeks back, is out with a concussion on the farm team. He collided with Springfi eld teammate Kip Brennan in a recent pre-game warm-up drill.
"First time I've ever seen that happen," said head coach Rob Daum.
This organization is cursed.
Even if we finish last (okay, even *when* we finish last), there's a 52% chance that pick second, right? Good chance that the choice is made for us.
ReplyDeleteThe curse of Ryan Smyth.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone expects an Ovechkin/Crosby. I do think we're looking at a Stamkos/Kane/Toews level player and that would be awesome I think.
I know this drum has been beaten a number of times but here it is for any newbies, check out Joyce's book on scouting, its interesting stuff.
He talks about the interview process (sits in with the BJs when they interview Kessel among others) and also talks about something that the BJs and many others did not do, basically talking to people surrounding a player in order to get a workup on the player. He did one on Akim Aliu and others iirc. So he talked to former coaches, teammates, families he billeted with and so on to try and get more info to flesh out the picture.
He was astounded that the BJs did little of this simple work considering they were investing millions of dollars in the process.
Not a guaranteed process but certainly more info and if you're trying to make a decision its best to be informed.
If I'm Katz at this point, I'm telling Lowe and Tambellini that they're going to be billeting with Hall and Seguin until the season is over. If these kids so much as talk in their sleep we should know it.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm Katz at this point, I'm telling Lowe and Tambellini that they're going to be billeting with Hall and Seguin until the season is over.
ReplyDeleteThe Pope is in trouble over something like this, so I bet Katz will be more careful than that.
BD,
ReplyDeleteLowe talked about "talking to every person these two have ever met"
I get the feeling they might know what they are doing here when it comes to selecting.
When it comes to developing young guys and aquiring real NHLers though....
Well as far as I can remember, the MMPI has about 500 questions. Apparently it can be done in 40-60 minutes on computer these days.
ReplyDeleteI doubt any management team in the league has that much time with each of the players they're targeting. I'm sure they'd rather just ask them questions to find out what they're like as people.
Andrea Bargniani, the Toronto Raptors 1st overall pick in 2006 was off the charts on his psychological testing, its just too bad the Raptros didn't test his basketball playing ability.
ReplyDeleteInteresting post about MVP candidates using stats comparing how the team does with you on the ice vs off the ice. Interesting read, especially since Dustin Penner is the 9th ranked player in the whole league for impact.
ReplyDeleteDon't know how to link so here is the article:
http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2010/3/16/1376132/the-numbers-say-nhl-mvp-is
The curse of Ryan Smyth
ReplyDeleteNo, the curse started before then. I am thinking about the time MAB ran over Roli in the finals.
Someone who has a good memory of such things needs to investigate, so we can find the source of the curse and make the appropriate offerings to the hockey Gods.
Possible other sources of the curse:
1)The offer sheet for Penner offending the hockey Gods,
2)MAB running Roli
3)CFP or Mrs. CFP
4)The offer sheet for Penner offending Brian Burke - who is the devil.
5) Big George putting some bad Vodoo on the team for not making enough of an offer for him
6)Bob Stauffer eating all of the "good luck"
DBO,
ReplyDeleteReally interesting link.
Parise's 5-on-5 results are tops in the league, and he's also boosted by his ability to draw penalties, while not taking many himself.
Its like a wound that will not heal.
RE: Which is why psychological testing should be a key determining factor when two players are so close in talent.
ReplyDeletePerhaps they should start by performing psychological testing on their own management staff first.
Doesn't really matter who they add to the nuthouse IMO.
Someone who has a good memory of such things needs to investigate...
ReplyDeleteWracking my brain to think if there were any earlier instances of the Oilers offending the hockey gods...
In terms of karms, I think we're talking lifetimes here.
especially since Karma will be angry it was referred to as karms. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteInteresting post about MVP candidates using stats comparing how the team does with you on the ice vs off the ice. Interesting read, especially since Dustin Penner is the 9th ranked player in the whole league for impact.
ReplyDeleteKind of interesting, but not very useful for comparing players from different teams against each other though.
Penner's results are being compared against some of the worst hockey players to ever lace up skates in the NHL, while other players are being compared to legit bottom six difference makers.
Doesn't Hall in that picture remind you of the little person that you used to see on Monster Garage? Weird . . .
ReplyDeleteDBO,
ReplyDeleteAlso,
HTML links primer
kamus said...
ReplyDeleteAndrea Bargniani, the Toronto Raptors 1st overall pick in 2006 was off the charts on his psychological testing, its just too bad the Raptros didn't test his basketball playing ability.
1:28 PM, March 18, 2010
I don't get your reference kamus; Bargnani seems to have come along a bit slowly (never having played in NA from what I can tell) but he averaged around 20 points and 5 rebounds per game in the 2nd half of last season, and seems to be continuing to do so in the 1st 10 games of this season.
So how does this disprove psychological testing, and where does it show that he can't play basketball? I'm no fan of basketball but the kid is 24 years old and seems to be doing alright.
Niederreiter 3rd? They smoking some good things over there.
ReplyDeleteUnder PPG and you're 3rd overall? Ridiculous in so many ways.
That Buchberger comparison is pure gold:)
ReplyDeleteAs others have already mentioned, the Oilers are NOT getting a generational talent in this draft. They probably aren't even getting a Toews/Stamkos/Doughty.
ReplyDeleteTalk about unrealistic expectations/
mps with a nice pp assist in the first game of the playoffs.
ReplyDeletetimrå lost in ot
Lowetide: What level of ability should we be expecting Hall/Seguin to be?
ReplyDeleteNot Ovechkin or Crosby fine. But apparently not Toews/Stamkos. What level then? Can you do Desjardins comparisons with Hall/Seguin with some approximate players like Toews/Kane etc.?
Man, that trade tree of Mark Messier is fascinating. Twenty years later, we're sitting on POS, Tommy Albelin, Riley Nash, and Captain Clutch (and nineteen years without a Cup, fifteen of them without a playoff series victory) as the bounty for that trade.
ReplyDeleteActually, other than the shitty playoff record, that's a hell of a lot better than the initial return. And a sure sight better than the same result for the Gretzky sale.
SpOILer: Here's the entire item from Jim Matheson's column
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Oilers are looking at several U.S. college free agents, hoping to sign some. They’re likely going for big forwards. Here are three names to consider: Forward Brayden Irwin, who’s been at two Buffalo Sabres development camps (U of Vermont), Mike Testwuide (RW, Colorado College) and Cam MacIntyre (winger, Princeton). They’re all at least six-foot-three and 220 pounds. There are several hotshot forwards lighting it up — Stephane Da Costa and Chris Barton at Merrimack College, and Bobby Butler at U of New Hampshire — but they’re all on the smallish side, and the Oilers have too many pygmies.
Master Lok - LT just did this a couple of posts ago (near the bottom).
ReplyDeleteMaster Lok: I think Hall/Seguin will finish with fewer than Gagner's 49 points (as an 18-year old) next season.
ReplyDeleteSoooo, what you're saying is that adding one young, talented player (or 2 or 3) is not going to turn the team around? But, but, but, ...
ReplyDeleteThat's not what they have been telling me!
(damn their hope-selling lies)
Let's not forget Stamkos had a season inferior to Gagner's first as a rookie.
ReplyDeleteAnd both Hall and Seguin have similar draft years to Stamkos'
We're gonna go from the smurfs this year to a team with a Coke Machine glow next year.
ReplyDeleteWow, I can't believe they gave Wisniewski eight games for that. Is the NHL finally catching on?
ReplyDeleteWell, Seabrook didn't have the puck on the play. The league probably gave 5 games just for that. Whatever their stance on headshots, they are certain they don't want headshots on plays where the target hasn't touched the puck.
ReplyDeleteRibs,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think that's a good sign.
I think the NHL should deal with shots to the head the way they do with high sticking. You're responsible for your stick. If you hit somebody in the face, you get two minutes regardless of intent. If you hit somebody in the face and draw blood you get four minutes. The premise behind this rule is that you can play the game without sticking others in the face and so you should be responsible for making that happen.
So, I'd have rule where if your shoulder, elbow, or arms "impact" (i.e. hit with some force) another player's head, it's a 2 minute penalty. If you do any kind of damage it's an automatic 5 minute penalty to be reviewed by the league.
If the league reviews it and decides that the offending player could have executed their check by hitting the player only in the body, but did hit the player in the head, then it's an automatic 5 game suspension. (Or whatever) Notice that's a much lower bar to meet than "if the offending player intended to hit the other player in the head. It's hard to gauge mens rea in these cases, so your better off making a rule that punsihes behavior not intention.
You can then make the punishments worse for repeat offenders.
Of course, my rule is based on the premise that players should never intentionally contact another player's head during a body check and should be held responsible if they don't do what they can to prevent it.
I suppose the problem is that sometimes players who are very innocent get penalized for high sticking, and so a similar rule would likely result in some penalties and some (though very few, I bet) suspensions for players who hit someone else in the head innocently. But that's a fair tradeoff, IMO: a few guys get penalized, and a tiny number get small suspensions, but we largely eliminate this ridiculous head shots.
I know this suggestion will be roundly hated, but so be it.
Little late to give this guy some suspensions, I suppose.
ReplyDeleteI think the only problem with your idea is...
ReplyDeleteIf you do any kind of damage it's an automatic 5 minute penalty to be reviewed by the league.
How do you decide how much damage was done?
Ribs,
ReplyDeleteGood point. You can see blood on a high sticking call. You can't see a concussion.
Still, I think refs are asked and do a decent job making a number of subjective calls. Whether a guy was hurt, like Seabrooke was, is nit always easy to call, but I think refs could do it pretty well.
I think with Hall, he'll have a much bigger chance of making an impact early on. He's be 19 in November and has that extra year of Junior experience.
ReplyDeletemore on topic, if anything, I think that at least the having both players ranked as #1 takes the pressure off the Oilers
ReplyDeleteI think that they'll both be studs... eventually.
ReplyDeletePJO: I think you may be right in your assessment that Hall may have more of an immediate impact. The Oilers, however, aren't going to be a quick fix from the looks of it. I'd much rather have the better player who'll have a greater impact with sustain in the long run.
ReplyDeleteIs that Seguin, or is that Hall? From the early indications, it seems that Seguin may have a better head on his shoulders. Who knows with kids this young though.
Gotta be Hall if fire in the belly counts. The club needs a center more than another winger. Somewhere in my travels I read that Hall has played center. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteEnd of day, the Oilers need to do it one more time. Another top 5 and in 3-5 years we're playing for the Cup. More, we're going to be in the playoffs for the next 5-8 years to come.