This is Andrew Cogliano, getting a hug from Grandma on Janury 6, 2007. He was returning home as part of the Gold medal winning club at the World Juniors in Sweden. From pretty much every account available anywhere, Cogliano is regarded as a quality person and a terrific young prospect. Cogliano was second in the NCAA in total points among sophomores (Ryan Duncan from North Dakota was first) and you'd have to think he'll get a good long look at camp in the fall.
If we made a center depth chart for the Oilers at this minute (and understanding Stoll is injured, as is Schremp), Cogliano would be well down the list:
- Shawn Horcoff
- Jarret Stoll
- Marty Reasoner
- Marc Pouliot
- Robert Nilsson
- Rob Schremp
- Kyle Brodziak
- Tyler Spurgeon
- Andrew Cogliano
- Ryan O'Marra
It would have to be considered a major upset for Cogliano to make the big club this fall, even considering one or two of the players on that list will be dealt. I think the Oilers may include Nilsson in a deal, possibly Pouliot (although I'm hoping they keep him) and with Stoll and Schremp hurt a player like Reasoner is likely to stay if only for insurance.
And the Oilers may end up dealing for a center to compliment Hemsky as well, something that would make it even more difficult for Cogliano. However, if we're making a list of players who could bring energy, aggressive forechecking and passion to every shift, Cogliano is certainly a candidate.
Either way, Andrew Cogliano signing is good news for an organization that has had very little to cheer about in 2007.
Cogliano's going to be a player, that's for sure, but a year of seasoning in the AHL will do him good. I don't agree with putting Cogs behind Spurgeon on the center depth chart. I think style of play has to be considered when ranking players. Horcoff's obviously tops, Stoll second. Pouliot should be ahead of Reasoner because he's got more offensive upside than Marty. I think Nilsson deserves higher than Reasoner also. Brodziak and Spurgeon are more third-line type players, great guys who bring a lot of energy, but not much in terms of scoring. Cogs has better scoring potential than either of those two, and can also play a similar "get in the corners and go to work" type of game, which is why I think he should be higher.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of next year, i hope he gets a long look at top-six minutes to see where he's at. I know he's young, and inexperienced, but he could be great on a sheltered line with maybe Lupul and Hemsky. Cogs can skate like the wind up the rush with Hemmer and back up the D, leaving Lupul as the trailer to play sniper. I think it'd be effective to bundle up our offensive talent to play against the team's weaker lines, and let lines of Horcoff and Stoll (assuming he's healthy) handle the heavy-lifting. Hemsky gets his scoring centerman (potentially), we see if Lupul can still be an effective player, and we see if Cogliano's top-line material.
Two years minimum in Springfield for this fine young skater. I like Cogliano and think his ceiling may be something like that of a Maxim Afinigenov. If groomed correctly he will end up like Maxim. Hopefully he will learn to play without the puck better than this fine offensive player though.
ReplyDeleteFor those out there that think he could make the grade like Hemsky did when he was young, you are mistaken. Hemsky was in the NHL early because of the rules and nothing more. And Cogliano is no Hemsky. In a perfect world Ales would have been in the AHL for at least one season to develop and gain confidence. I believe he is one year behind where he could be without this time in the A - though this is not the fault of the Oilers as he would have been hurt worse by picking up bad habits in junior like our boy Schremp did two seasons ago.
Bring 'em up slowly with confidence. I hope that's something this organization strives for going forward.
On another note, I caught MacT on XM the other day and he spoke about a number of things hockey and otherwise. Is this guy a well spoken man or what. There's been some out there who have been mentioning him for a possible replacement as GM after Lowe moves on and, well, you can definately count me in as a supporter there.
A very intelligent guy who tells it exactly as he sees it. You have to admire that.
T
Get him here this summer as he's never been to Edmonton. Take him to the festivals (Heritage, Capital Ex, Fringe), conduct bike rides along the river valley, etc. Basically, get him comfortable and willing to play in this city..
ReplyDeleteWe all know this city is...less appealing in the winter time.
LT, is it just me or do you also feel like the Oilers are ripe to ruin a lot of prospects in an attempt to prove the organizations draft success? I feel like we're gonna be putting a lot of young guys in the lineup next fall (even moreso than this year) who won't be ready and who'll be ruined in the process.
ReplyDelete.......gosh where to start.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak may be a marginally useful guy but he's been in the AHL 3 years and is still a fringe NHL player and his skating is still an issue. Spurgeon was in the ECHL for crying out loud and may turn into Toby Petersen if he's lucky. Bottom line - both these guys are not worth worrying too much about in terms of development. They are 4th liners at best and frankly I want my 4th liners either to be kids with much more potential (like Pouliot) or vets who you don't need to worry about (like Reasoner).
Nilssen is a winger now as far as I'm concerned so let's not worry about him - but I'm of a mind that his arrival does not bode well for Schremp who may be on the way out even though he's been injured (anyone know how he's doing?). Nilssen just seems to be more of a player even taking into account the age difference.
Horcoff and Stoll are solid vets - nuff said
That brings us to Cogs and O'Marra - and I like both of these guys a lot. Cogs has world-class wheels, a good head for the game, good defensive instincts and he's been well coached. Marchant seems a good comparison and if can come closer to Marchant's good years than his mediocre years then he'll be a very valuable player. O'Marra is big, can skate and has some talent - that's something we really lack at center and I'm really excited to see this kid healthy and ready to go in September.
My take - Horcoff, Stoll, Pouliot and Reasoner are our top 4 - trade Schremp - give Nissen a shot at wing - let Brodziak be the first injury callup - who cares about Spurgeon - develop O'Marra and Cogs in the AHL for a full year.
I think maybe some of you think I'm burying Cogliano at 9th, but imo that's the right place to slot him. Reasons? He's an unknown quantity to the coach, and should he come in and earn a roster spot then it should be regarded as major news. Slotting him 5th implies he's got a legit shot, a solid shot, and I don't believe that to be true.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak is exactly the kind of player who could take his roster spot imo. MacT has shown a preference in terms of bench/pressbox for somewhat older players, and in fact when his two extras this season were Mikhnov and Jacques he rarely played them before they were sent out.
I'm not burying Cogliano, but I do think if he makes the club it'll be a "he started 9th on the depth chart and made the team" impressive, not "he came in 5th on the depth chart and made our decision easy."
Either way, it's good he signed.
Kyle
I think the only time under MacT the Oilers have force fed the kids was this season. He wouldn't give in up front, where he allowed Jacques and Mikhnov to sit until they needed conditioning stints, and that is consistent with his past (I have no issue with that btw, if your coach prefers Todd Harvey then the GM needs to get him Todd Harvey).
This year on the blueline, MacT had no options so he had to feed 500 at-bats to Ladislav Smid in the heart of the order, 500 at-bats to Matt Greene in the 8 slot and the results were predictable.
If Lowe gives him more kids this fall we'll know the two men are not on the same page.
on Stoll - reports all over the place that the medical staff have cleared him for full workouts. Say Derek Van Diest
ReplyDeleteHowson was on Stauffer's radio show for an hour yesterday and admitted that:
- they made some incorrect personnel assessments
- puck moving D is still the biggest hole
- the coaching staff have always had influence in decisions, but will have even more of a say this year -- particularly in the pro-scouting arena.
- they really like college guys
- he is very bullish on their D "in the future" and believes that this is now a strength in their pipeline
Brian Metzer, the Pens blogger at HockeyBuzz, is gushing about the play of Nilsson and Pouliot in WBS' playoffs.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=7303
Pouliot should be ahead of Reasoner because he's got more offensive upside than Marty.
ReplyDeleteActually I think Pouliot should be ahead of Reasoner because he has already outplayed him in the NHL.
I think Marty's done. He might play for the Oilers next year but I highly doubt he contributes more than he did this year and he was bad this year.
Forgot to add - I think LT's rankings are solid. This is strictly "what have you done for me lately" stuff, not some creepy HF ranking. If you look at it that way, then these rankings (ignoring potential position changes for Nilsson and Schremp) are pretty air tight.
ReplyDeleteCogliano's never played a pro game - he can't be put ahead of guys like Spurgeon or Brodziak just yet IMO.
Sorry LT. I'm going to nitpick on the list a little bit. I don't see how Brodziak is below Schremp in the depth chart. Kyle was brought up before him this year during the injury situation, has outpointed him this season (0.90 ppg vs 0.77 ppg) and by all accounts had a more primary role on WBS. Couple that with Robbie's recent injury and I think it bumps him down a tad.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Marchant busted into the AHL at a 1.24 ppg pace so if we are assuming he is a likely comparable to Andrew, he's going to have to make quite the impact.
And Riv, you're right about Reasoner. It's a shame since he came back immediately to the Oilers when the mass exodus was taking place in the summer.
I too read a report this morning that Stoll has been cleared for full workouts and expects to start within the next week.
ReplyDeleteI was out of country for a week in April and when I came back was suprised to not find Schremp in the WBS line-up. I am now seeing your injury comments. Would someone be so kind as to fill me in? Much appreciated.
"I was out of country for a week in April and when I came back was suprised to not find Schremp in the WBS line-up. I am now seeing your injury comments. Would someone be so kind as to fill me in? Much appreciated."
ReplyDeleteI believe he has a tear in his MCL, as well as some miniscus damage. He'll miss the AHL playoffs, but should be ready for training camp next september.
Good day, Lain.
ReplyDeleteWell...
I guess I better fabricate some time to chime in, since you are discussing my favourite Oilers prospect. A lofty position Cogs has quietly occupied since his first trip to the WJCs.
While others were moaning the loss of his scoring touch, I was tickled pink that he had taken the defensive aspect of the game to heart.
I see something really special in this young man, and think he'll be a contributor to winning games considerably younger than most. aamof - I believe he has it in him to improve enough to force his way into the line-up later this season, but could spend the year in the AHL, especially if we don't get significant veteran help on D.
Cogliano is a quick study and, like Pouliot, his greatest asset is between his ears. He thrives on taking on new and harder challenges.
imho - These boys will both flourish with MacT and co. coaching them. Let's hope they are still here when KLo's summertime dust settles.
btw - I don't see Cogs settling for being a 3rd line centre. He's top 6er "for sure".
Louise
I've been reading the daily coverage of the BPens and their beatie says that MP really didn't have a great first series. He had three great gamse I think but wasn't too noticeable in the other ones. I think Richards echoed that as well and I don't remember him making any comment at all on Nilsson.
ReplyDeleteI think Cogs is an NHLer for sure and I don't think there's a big diff between a guy being a top sixer and a top niner. The difference between a first and third liner, that's a bit different but in terms of ESTOI, which is how I judge guys, top six and top nine isn't exactly a huge divide.
in any case, some of the kids are gonna have to be the add-on's when Lowe makes his 'big trade':D
That's true enough Dennis. You can label a guy a checker or a 3rd line player all you want but if he's top 3 in ESTOI, he's pretty damn valuable to the club by the coach's eye.
ReplyDeleteAnd the Oilers certainly have a boatload of youngsters that the Oilers need to make a decision on especially on the blueline. There's just no way I can stomach a season with 4 young dmen in the top 6. Something just has to give, doesn't it?
Maybe it will, Mo. There are days when I convince myself that Lowe can't let this team twist in the wind for two winters in a row and then there are other times when I look at how tough the NW is, how thin we are ,how cheap the Oilers can be and just how many tickets still get sold no matter how much we suck, and those times are the ones that make me believe that next year won't see things improve.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't shock me at all to see a top six of Smith-Staios-Hejda-Smid- and two of Grebs-Gilbert-Greene. And if that's the case then just how good can we really be?
I'm not saying that defensive core would be acceptable by any stretch..
ReplyDeleteBut am I the only person here expecting Grebeshkov to step in and be better than Bobby Smid? He put up big minutes in NYI, was on the top pairing in Russia, and has put up numbers everywhere he's gone.
Yes, Dennis... I agree that TOI is the logical indicator for determining a player's pucking order ;). I'm old ;p ... and maybe a little stuck in some of yesteryear's terminologies. I was trying to do 3 other things while composing my comment and was ham-handed in my attempt to say...
ReplyDeleteCogs will be a two-way-minute-eater, contributing in all zones.... because, he will never quit trying to improve.
The force is strong in this one... intangibles out the wazoo. I can't wait to watch MacT put him thru training camp paces. (PLEASE, Oilers, keep TC in Edmonton this year.) I know there's a rookie camp coming up, but TC is when the real tests start.
...
Wanted to comment yesterday, but ran out of fabricated time. ;D
Lowetide said...
If Lowe gives him more kids this fall we'll know the two men are not on the same page.
I don't agree, Lain.
I think that MacT got a 4 year extension because he knew that the first 2 years could be rookie-riddled. iow - nasty.
There have been some compromises, I'm sure, but these two are kindred spirit/teammates, who are working together toward the same goal.
RiversQ said...
I think Marty's done. He might play for the Oilers next year but I highly doubt he contributes more than he did this year and he was bad this year.
I hope not, RQ.
He has the instincts and the smarts to be a valuable vet on a good team. But... somewhere along the way (since being dumped last year... getting married... having to play for the '06-'07 Oilers... ????) he has lost his passion for the game.
Passion can be rekindled. I guess we'll have to wait for fall to see if there are any coals left to spark.
L8r
Louise
That whole thing was no slight towards you, Louise:)
ReplyDeleteI think that Marty's just done, it's not that he's lost his passion it's just that he never fully recovered from that leg injury he took during that icing play in TO. I think he had like 10 points in 17 games before that injury or something, and he was creating offense and actually looking like a two way player. I felt good about that becuase he was always a fave of mine. But he hasn't been the same since he's come back and outside of the times when him and winny and thor had a good stretch, he didn't look like a top niner to me this year.
Louise/Ice - I just wanted to say right on, I could not have said it any better.
ReplyDeleteI have watched close to 20 Michigan games this year and everything you say is true, he is great defensively and it may take a while but he will end up in the top 6 I believe.
Berenson is a great coach but appears to be very traditional and the top line of Hensick, Rolhfs, Porter made up of seniors and always were fed the lions share of ice time. Some games I watched Cogs line clearly deserved more ice but generally did not get it and yet Cogs found a way to make an impact at both ends and made the most of every shift (every player has a lapse shift or two but you know what I mean).
Having said that there is no doubt Berenson loved Cogs, in one interview he projected him as an NHL player as a cross between Marchant and Dave Keon.
By the way Cogs and Jack Johnson had some mad chemistry going on. Cogs is great under pressure along the boards and behind the net of getting the puck on the tape of the jumping defender.