This is Mike Ivie, a highly touted catcher who went first overall to the San Diego Padres in 1970. Ivie was an elite level prospect who was plus plus across the board (save speed) but is mostly remembered now as inspiring some of the greatest quotes in MLB history:"Mike Ivie is a forty-million-dollar airport with a thirty-million-dollar control tower." - Dodger Teammate Rick Monday in Baseball's Greatest Quotes (1982)
"A short sermon on the worth of raw talent in baseball: There are probably not ten players in baseball today who have as much natural talent at hitting a baseball as Mike Ivie. Our topic for next week: Pete Rose isn't one of those ten." -Bill James, 1983
The James quote seems like a good place to start with young Joffrey. Like Ivie, Lupul was taken very high in his draft year and the scouting reports were glowing:
Central Scouting: deceptive skater with quick acceleration ... possesses excellent puck-handling skills and works well in heavy traffic ... has exceptional hockey sense and vision ... an unselfish playmaker and constant offensive threat ... is able to play all three forward positions ... a tough competitor who works well in the corners and along the boards ... is used in all game situations ... adept at creating offensive chances in shorthanded situations ... will sacrifice himself to make a play.
Redline: Joffrey Lupul is right up there with Nash as the top pure snipers in the lottery. His 56 goals easily outdistanced the field among all prospects, and he can score in a variety of ways. Lupul plays well in traffic areas and manages to find open ice. But he needs to gain strength and become more consistent.
The Joffrey Lupul we saw this season didn't resemble the scouting reports. When a young player doesn't perform to expectations, there are only a few possible reasons:
- Confidence
- Coach's doghouse
- Injury
- Doesn't fit the role given
- Indifference
- He's just not that good
With the exception of #3 (I read no reports about any serious injuries and he played 81 games), there may be a little bit of truth in all of the other areas.
CONFIDENCE: From the first interview I heard (on the Stauffer show) last summer Lupul seemed a little tentative, somewhat deer in the headlights. I've read a bunch of times that he owned SoCal (as much as a young hockey player can anyway) and the pressure in Edmonton was a tall order. Certainly family connections to the team and all that entails couldn't have been easy, but it seems to me it's a stretch to say Joffrey Lupul's season was a result of coming home. Adjustment problems, sure. But ruining an entire season? It's a stretch. Some notable Yankee pitchers (Doyle Alexander) have struggled over the years but Lupul playing at Rexall on the 2line isn't exactly like being a #2 starter for the Yanks.
COACH'S DOGHOUSE: According to a June 22, 2002 Edmonton Sun article (Robin Brownlee), MacTavish and Lowe did a second interview with Lupul in the days leading up to the draft. Seems like there was interest. This past season I felt MacT showed patience with his young winger and in fact appeared to take the high road at his exit interview on the season. There's no doubt Lupul spent time in MacT's doghouse but I don't believe it was a strong reason for the poor season. Either way, it didn't work.
DOESN'T FIT THE ROLE GIVEN: The only strong argument pro-Lupul forces might have is that the way he was used wasn't ideal. He may have been misused on the PP but he really didn't help himself (his shot total was reduced from 296 to 172) by using his strengths (a quick accurate shot) and good players force the coach to make room and give more minutes. Lupul's difficulty of ice time was not harsh, and even though he didn't have Hemsky on the other wing (Sykora was on his line a lot) he wasn't out there with JF Jacques like Pouliot was either.
INDIFFERENCE: Lupul seems to have an easygoing style that Oilers fans will boo the hell out of should he have another poor season. There were several times this season when the simplest play (get the puck out at the blueline wall) seemed beyond him and his ability to take and make a pass went away for long stretches. Lupul seemed to trail the play (and not in a good way) often. Are these things indifference? conditioning?
HE'S JUST NOT THAT GOOD: Lupul had a very nice final season in junior and a decent rookie season at 20 in the NHL (75gp, 13-21-34, -6). Popped 30 in a strong AHL during the lockout season, scored 28 in his second NHL season (with 9 PP goals in 16 post-season games) and then stepped into the elevator shaft in Edmonton.
The numbers have been mentioned often at MC's site and over on IOF. They are not pretty. Lupul was very poor. The questions we need to ask is "can he improve?" and "is he worth keeping?"
Most if not all of the blogosphere believes getting rid of him is the only way to go. I'm not so sure. Joffrey Lupul is 23 years old, has had some success as a scorer in the NHL and has yet to really help his team win hockey games in any of his three seasons. I'm hoping he's working like a bugger this summer, improving his conditioning and getting a really good FU mad on. He should be doing just that, and thinking about earning that very handsome paycheck this fall.
Will he man up? We'll see. However, his trade value is so low now (or at least I believe it is) it's better to bring him back for another season and hope for better counting numbers and hopefully a step forward in more than one area. One thing is certain: Kevin Lowe gave up so much to get him, he's going to get another 500 at-bats in 06-07.
I agree with you that it's usually a bad idea to move a player like Lupul when his value is low.
ReplyDeleteBut on the other hand, do you think he'll ever be good enough to make up for the $5.4M in cash and $4.6M in cap space he's due in the next two years?
Let's just scrap the coach's doghouse idea. I can't fathom how Lupul didn't get benched for some road games. How do you manage to play 81 games and go +5/-30 on the road at the same time?
ReplyDeleteIt's absolutely impossible that he managed to do this and be in the doghouse at the same time. Furthermore, MacT's doghouse really sucks. You get 4 min of ice per game if you even manage to dress and you get called out in the press. Lupul didn't catch any of this.
One other thing - there's a thread with comps for Lupul's career path over at HF. So far the best two have been Tim Connolly and Vinny Lecavalier. I took a look at their shooting rates (along with some other comps with bad years that weren't due to total suckitude) and Lupul's 05/06 year was bizarre for a young player. Almost double what most young players manage to put up in their early years - Lupul's was 13.2 shots/hr while the others were in the 6-10 range. I'm getting a sneaking suspicion that Lupul's 28 goal year was something of an anomaly.
Sorry, just to add - those are comps that sucked in their 3rd/4th season AND managed to come around. I didn't bother to ask about the obvious ones that continue to stink it up.
ReplyDeleteWill he man up? We'll see. However, his trade value is so low now (or at least I believe it is) it's better to bring him back for another season and hope for better counting numbers...
ReplyDeleteRegardless of the reason for Lupul's poor play, this is the only logical course of action.
Keeping Lupul makes it much tougher to envision a team with three or four working lines.
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking they most likely trade partner would be San Jose for Bell - another guy who stiffed this season. At least he's a left side stiff, where the Oilers have a few openings
But, if Lupul works a bit this summer, comes to camp more purposeful, focussed and in shape - who knows?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLupul would be a lot easier to stomach with a smaller price tag. Now, I bet Lowe wishes he had opted for a one year deal and left the negotiations on the table for this summer. Lupul definitely wouldn't break the 2 million he was making this season.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting a sneaking suspicion that Lupul's 28 goal year was something of an anomaly.
ReplyDeleteWhich is more likely to be an anomaly? His utterly terribly 2006-07, or his pretty bloody good every other year? I think the single instance is more likely to be the anomaly.
I was at the Tampa Bay game shortly after the Smyth trade sitting close to the Oiler's bench. Lupul already had a neutral zone turnover that cost a goal in the game, and later came an ugly shift when he was caught out there against Lecavalier's line. The Oiler's were penned in their own zone for about 45 seconds, and Lupul was completely lost. He was randomly chasing the puck, covering the point, going behind the net, it was absurd.
ReplyDeleteWhen Lecavalier finally scored, Lupul came to the bench. MacTavish met him at one end of the bench, leaned over and ripped into him as he skated in front of the bench, MacT basically chased him from one end of the bench to the other. I couldn't hear what he was yelling, but it wasn't "nice try Joff, you'll get him next time"
I don't know if that constitutes being in the coach's doghouse, or if incidents like that contributed to Lupul's dismal season, but it was entertaining to watch.
I once had a coach who remarked of a teammate of mine: He can skate...He can pass...He can stickhandle...He can shoot... He just can't skate-pass-stickhandle and shoot.
Which is more likely to be an anomaly? His utterly terribly 2006-07, or his pretty bloody good every other year? I think the single instance is more likely to be the anomaly.
ReplyDeletePretty bloody good every other year? Huh? The guys has had three NHL seasons and none of them have been particularly good.
I realize people get blinded by the 28 goals, but let's get the facts straight.
Lupul was not a good player even in his good year. He got outscored at ES on a very, very good ES team and he put up pedestrian scoring rates on the PP.
(Just as an example - if you head over to mc79hockey.com and compare Lupul's PP scoring rate you'll find that 60-65% of NHL forwards playing more than 120min on the PP, put up better numbers than Lupul in 05/06 based on this year's rates. That means every team in the league has 4-5 forwards that are better on the PP than Lupul's good year.)
So let's get this straight - he's been poor all three years at ES. He's been mediocre to terrible on the PP for all three years. He's had a 9% shooting percentage all three years. There are only two major differences: one year he put up an obscene number of shots (a rate that seems anomalous compared to other young players); and one year he sucked at ES extra hard.
As far as the counting numbers go, Lupul was on pace for another 25-30 goal season after about 30 games and the guy was already -10 at 5V5.
Lupul could turn this ship around, and I'd be happy if he did so, but he's got a long way to go.
Riv,
ReplyDeletethe chorus of dumb oiler fans say . . .
But its MacT's fault for being unable to nurture young offensive players. He's too defensively oriented!
I love Lain to death, I really do. If him and I were drinking buddies, we'd constantly fall out over things and then two or three days later I'd call him up and we'd smooth things over. That being said;) as much as Lain once compared me to WW2 soldiers for my -inability to let things go:) this is where I get to smack back at Lain.
ReplyDeleteAnd in a big way I might add:)
__We'll see. However, his trade value is so low now (or at least I believe it is) it's better to bring him back for another season and hope for better counting numbers and hopefully a step forward in more than one area__
That's Lain trying to explain why we should keep throwing good icetime AND money after bad. We can't trade him because his value's so low? Fuck that. We can't keep him because of the damage he does on the gamesheets and on the finanical sheets.
__One thing is certain: Kevin Lowe gave up so much to get him, he's going to get another 500 at-bats in 06-07___
Here's Lain simutainously realizing why the Pronger trade rots my guts, ie yes I agree we did give up a lot;) and at the same time, he's saying that Lowe's gonna give him some more swings and I can almost hear Lain agreeing with that. In fact I know he is because he said so in the first piece I pasted.
Lain, it's over. Lupul is soft-min -and-overpaid garbage. If we can even get rid of his salary on the chance we can bring someone in who can make somewhat of a difference, the it's worth making a deal just as a salary dump.
Dennis: If we lived in the same town we'd drink the river dry and I'd be divorced by Saturday. :-)
ReplyDeleteThere's no way I can defend the Pronger trade, but at some point imo you need to slice away that topic and deal with Lupul as an individual case.
I understand your pov, but don't agree with it.
RQ: Does Lupul's 12pp goals in 376 minutes at his age come up with any good comps? Digging around the bush a little but that seems to me to be a decent number.
Either way, I'm clearly an apologist on the Lupul front and am prepared to plead guilty. The kid can't possibly be this bad, I'm betting he has a much better 07-08 season.
RQ: Does Lupul's 12pp goals in 376 minutes at his age come up with any good comps? Digging around the bush a little but that seems to me to be a decent number.
ReplyDeleteWell, according to mc79's numbers for this year that kind of goal scoring rate on the PP would put Lupul in the 65th percentile roughly. That's down to 2-3 forwards per team with a better goal scoring rate. Without doing a lot more digging, I would imagine that's not half bad for a player his age.
Check out that thread over at HF if you get a chance. Obviously, I'm leaning towards Lupul not having a positive comp. However I think it's a very interesting question whether or not he can come back. Looking at some of the comparables in that thread, it appears to me that there might be a chance. He'd be coming out of a deeper darker hole than most, if not all, of those other players but that doesn't change the fact that some darn good players have come back from some pretty terrible years.
You know I actually agree with Dennis in that now may be the best time to ditch Lupul.
ReplyDeleteRight now a case can be made that he had a single bad season and needs a change of scenery. Lord knows that there is more than one NHL GM blinded by foggy-headed opinions of player perfornmance. If some fool thinks he can "steal" Lupul - then we should encourage that behavior and get as much as we can now. Because if he has another season like 06-07 he is utterly untradable.
LT Said...
ReplyDeleteEither way, I'm clearly an apologist on the Lupul front and am prepared to plead guilty. The kid can't possibly be this bad, I'm betting he has a much better 07-08 season.
Honestly, and no offense meant LT, but...
Could he REALLY do any worse? Honestly?
Anyway - I agree with AO and Dennis. Now is the time to ditch Lupul. His value is certainly lower than it was a year ago - but it's not going to get any higher in my eyes, so the chance to move him before he becomes immovable and still get some sort of value is now.
LT, I have some bad news for you;)
ReplyDeleteI'm still not over the fact that Demitra didn't come back in the Weight trade or that for all the great Dmen the Blues had in thier system at the time, we wound up with Jan Fucking Horachek. So good luck with me forgetting about the Pronger trade.
When it comes to Lupul, it's bad enough that the other part of the deal is overrated and is being pimped in the press by Lowe's demand. But the killer is that JOFF's already getting paid on a cheap team and he's eating the soft min and vomiting all over the Oilers chance at winning.
So, you're scrapping over a few extra K with 94 and yet you're paying Lupul when he's never proven anything.
I don't care where he played his minor hockey, it's time to cut the cord unless this guy's gonna play for 400K a year
Dennis: I'd still rather take the bet that Lupul will improve enough (and increase his value enough) over what they can get for him. I understand you think he'll never amount to a hill of beans, but keeping him around for another season (or half of one) to increase his value still makes more sense to me.
ReplyDeleteIf Lupul managed a 25-goal season (or 17 before the deadline) the Oilers would be far more likely to get good value in return.
Right now, what does Lupul get you? This team isn't a Cup contender, give Lupul another year of the Soft Parade and hope like hell he gets hot and comes to camp more determined than before.
LT - be honest - which do you think is more likely to happen.
ReplyDeleteA) Lupul is put into a situation similar to his big ANA season (are we even able to do this?) and rebounds with a big goal scoring year.
or
B) Lupul has a season pretty much like the last one or maybe a bit better
I honestly can't convince myself #1 is going to happen and I want to believe in a UFO junkie kind of way :)
Time to cut our losses so that we can spend more on better players and avoid letting this kid hurts our cap situation in 08-09.
Lupul will likely turn his game around sometime down the line... but it's very doubtful it'll be with the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, there's a real risk he could slow overall team development - with the salary and ice-time he will be given over the next two years. Five million dollars could be spent better elsewhere, (lw/d?)
Although I can see the Oilers giving him another chance this fall (to raise his value?), I would suspect he'll be gone by Christmas.
Everytime I see a post on Lupul, Pronger, or whatever, these words need to be said:
ReplyDeleteShould have got Getzlaf. Settled for Lupul.
And don't buy the "Getzlaf wasn't on the table" crap that every member of the Edmonton media tries to spoon-feed the fans to protect Lowe's ass. He was trading CHRIS PRONGER. He had every right to demand Getzlaf and Smid as the return, and then work to get Vishnevski thrown into the package as well (taking salary off the hands of the Ducks).
The grotesque contract given to Joffrey was just the shit-icing on the shit-cake.
If you make a bad call in the stock market you can hold and hope things turn around - or cut your losses and move on. Holding makes sense if the investment is basically sound - but makes no sense when the company's fundamentals are poor.
ReplyDeleteThe fundamentals of Lupul's game are just plain bad and so "holding" would be foolish. A good manager can admit when he makes a mistake and moves to fix it ASAP - and that's what Lowe should be doing at the draft with Lupul.
Lain, you're just afraid to admit just how bad the Pronger deal was:) That's why you want to hang onto Lupul. It has nothing to do with increasing his trade-value because I'd bet that if Lupul had 14 goals and was a -5 at the 41 game mark next year, you'd still want to hold on to him.
ReplyDeleteHe needs soft min and when he gets them he can't exploit them. Oh yeah, and he's also getting paid by a team that doesn't pay everyone. I don't know what else to say on the matter. It's like the Salo thing: you get it or you don't.
Lowetide, this has nothing to do with the topic, but do you still have the ''Reasonable expectations for Oiler prospects in 2006-2007'' blog entry?
ReplyDeleteOr was that accidentally deleted?
Cheers
Dennis: We probably have different definitions of "afraid". The Pronger deal worked out as badly as one could possibly imagine, but what I'm talking about here is Joffrey Lupul and getting maximum value for him. Despite this past season he's a pretty famous player for his age and a high draft pick.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me getting good value for Lupul in a season when the Oilers look like they're not going to have a strong club is logical.
We've seen all we need to see LT - the kid is positively Russian in his one dimensional crappiness and his name should be Lupulov - in fact I'll start calling him that in honor of his soft, effortless game that lacks any semblence of purpose.
ReplyDeleteYeah Lupulov it is.....
Asia: I'm suggesting they run Lupulov out there for a solid half season of the soft parade.
ReplyDeleteIs it not POSSIBLE he would improve to the point where his value would increase? I read the venom and understand it, but it still seems to me that even in this situation the better play is to wait and get better value.
I can't imagine what Lowe would get for him now, but it would have to be 10 cents on the dollar.
This Lupulov thing kills me - too accurate :)
ReplyDeleteI don't know LT - ATL is in a complete mess - maybe we could swap Lupul and cap space plus a not so important draft pick for a year of Hossa and try to extend him. Hossa has always been a quality guy at ES and on the PP.
If we can move him now I would - but the soft parade and Xmas deal is also clearly an option for Lupulov.
Asia: Exactly. If they can get value for Lupulov now, great. But I have a feeling his value is so low only problems (Samsanov?) are likely being offered now.
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteAsia: I'm suggesting they run Lupulov out there for a solid half season of the soft parade.
I'm not entirely disagreeing with you LT, but what if he coughs up another -10 GD in that time period? A -10 in 30-40 games playing soft opposition is death for an NHL team.
I can't imagine what Lowe would get for him now, but it would have to be 10 cents on the dollar.
Welcome to the new world order.
Lupul was two mistakes - the trade was compounded by the contract. In today's NHL, you can probably survive getting the shaft on talent, but if you kill yourself on the price too... Well, then you're really neck deep.
I'm not 100% sure what to do about Lupul, so I don't know if I can be too critical if they hang on to him. It's probably 100-to-1 odds that he can be a difference maker, but there is that sliver of a possibility.
However, I do question the rationale for keeping him. If you don't think he can be a player the best move is probably to cut him loose ASAP so that you can actually fix the team. Holding onto him for an extra 2nd round pick (or equivalent) will never be worth it especially when the rosters are never as fluid the rest of the year as they are at the draft.
RQ: It'll be interesting to see how Lowe and co. handle his situation this summer. Their cap number doesn't allow massive change (as needed) and unless they plan on offloading Roloson (which makes a lot of sense for a rebuilding team to do) then the Lupul dollars are a huge problem.
ReplyDeleteThe only players I can see coming back are other huge problems (Samsonov) and even teams like Columbus are going to be smarter.
Phoenix is the only reasonable destination I can see and can anyone fathom the Coyotes sending an inexpensive, useful player back?
First of all, they don't have more than 3, and secondly the new GM has enough problems with bad contracts now.
I think Lupul's gonna be fine. I'm predicting he'll score at least 25 goals and his plus/minus will be no worst than -25. I think that's a damn good season for a guy with only three years in the league plus a year in the AHL. Lowe elected not to fight with Burke over the inclusion of Messrs. Penner or Getzlaf so I'm sure he knew what he was getting when he picked up Lupul. Joff's always been a guy who's played the tough min and has always come up with his head above water in doing so, I might add, so I'm sure he'll bounce back next year and that contract will prove to be an absolute bargain.
ReplyDelete