I'm watching the New York Islanders play with Ryan Smyth-style heart in the third period tonight, it's pure joy for any hockey fan. There's 6 minutes or so left in the game and the Islanders are within 4-3 after not having much success for most of the game.Any NHL General Manager worth his salt is going to make a call to Smyth's agent this summer just to see if there's any interest. You also have to assume that the Islanders will make every effort to sign Smyth before July 1 but that seems unlikely as we speak. It goes without saying he'd be welcome in Edmonton, but it's too much to hope for at this time.
Calgary has been mentioned as a possible spot for Smyth, which makes sense. He's a perfect fit for a team built on hard work and just enough offense to get by, and there's no doubt at all he could form a worrisome tandem with Jarome Iginla.
Ottawa would be an excellent destination for Smyth, as they continue to add grit to their skill players, the Rangers must look longingly at Smyth's ability to make other people better, and New Jersey should take a shot at him too. Toronto will make a run because they always do.
Ryan Smyth is a winner. It'll be some time before we see a player like him come this way. Hockey's Pete Rose is now a journeyman looking for his 1980 Phillies. I hope he finds them.
EDIT TO ADD: For those who think the Pete Rose reference may have something to do with Rose's post-playing career, I'm talking about Rose as an active player. Like Smyth, Pete Rose was a talented player who made himself an impact player through hard work, toughness, improving aspects of his game long after those his age had peaked and had no more to give, and generally instilled a sense of 'never say die' in every team he every played for. That's the Pete Rose reference.
Pittsburgh?
ReplyDeleteBurying them for Sid?
He wants a Cup.
Bigtime.
More than the EIG, which is why he played his last game of the season tonight instead of two weeks ago.
The Edmonton Islanders fell short.
As you say, a terrific third period.
They kept making those long passes; up ice, cross ice, skipping the near guy & hitting the far one.
The Sabres weren't handling that very well at all.
Kudos to the Next-Train-Out-Of-Oilerville gang, they played well.
Oh well.
I can start cheering for the Sabres again.
I guess.
Pitts, the Rangers, and Philly are potential teams to go hard for Smytty. I don't think any other team in the league has the money or cap space to meet his monetary and term demands (save Edmonton). It would hurt badly to see him donning Flyers gear and playing for the same team as Hatcher.
ReplyDeleteI freely acknowlege Smyth skills and ES results - but calling him a "winner" ignores a long string of pre-FCP failures in EDM and now in NYI when he was also the go-to guy.
ReplyDeleteRiv and Vic can put up some very compelling numbers supporting Smyth's individual contribution - but the record of the teams that he has led are also there for all to see. I can overlook this shortcoming when Smyth is making $3.5 million and paid like a complimentary player. But at $5.5 or $6 million or whatever he wants - you have to deliver - and 1 goal and 2 assists as "the man" in a 5 game series just does not cut it.
Still - I'd shell out $5 million per on a 3 year deal - but someone will pony up the 5 years Smyth wants but will come to regret it in the final two years of that deal.
I freely acknowlege Smyth skills and ES results - but calling him a "winner" ignores a long string of pre-FCP failures in EDM and now in NYI when he was also the go-to guy.
ReplyDeleteAnd saying that ignores his WJC, his Oly gold, his World Cup Gold, and his two WC golds.
Asia: I'm pretty comfortable calling him a winner. Many of the teams your referring to were being beaten by clubs with superior salaries and procurement depts. None of that is Smyth's fault. Certainly since 2000 Ryan Smyth became a much more complete player (somewhere in there Ryan Smyth became an exceptional passer, and added to his other skills it was an impressive combination).
ReplyDeleteSomeone will pay him, and the final year or so may see a dropoff. However, Smyth's problems will be his body giving up and injuries, not the indifference of many big money ufa's.
I don't know if Ryan Smyth is a great bet at 27.5M over 5 years, but he's a better bet than a few who've come before and received it.
Asia, do you like Redden at 27/yr over 4 years better than Smyth at 27.5/5?
btw, one of the great posters at HF is Darth Milbury and I feel kind of bad for him tonight. Islanders paid in full for 30 games of Ryan.
Yeah I'm just agitating the dots tonight with my Smyth comments - not many takers :)
ReplyDeleteYou've gotta love Smyth at $3.5 million this year and last - pure value in a moneyball sense - he's a great ES player as I freely admit. But at $5.5 million or whatever he gets - you are paying in full for his services and the team is taking on all the risk that he stays healthy and VERY productive. He isn't a deal anymore at that rate and length of contract. This is the kind of deal that has not had a history of success for many teams (older guy signs big long term contract that takes him past his prime). The Doug Weight contract seems a decent comparable - and while it was not a disaster for St. Louis - no one would call it a raging success for the franchise either.
Yeah the Isles gave up a lot of assets to barely make the playoffs and then flame out in 5 measly games - a hell of a lot. Think if we had given up our #1 pick, Dubnyk and Schremp for Roloson last March and DET took us out of the first round - people would have called for Lowe's hide and rightfully so.
Redden is no deal either at his price point - but he is a bit younger and just coming into his prime as a dman - so it a bit different than Smyth. He also plays a position that IMHO has more of an impact on the overall game than a LW. I would love to see our top pair as Smith and Redden next year (lord knows Smith deserves this as he earned a friggin purple heart after what he endured this past season).
"Still - I'd shell out $5 million per on a 3 year deal - but someone will pony up the 5 years Smyth wants but will come to regret it in the final two years of that deal."
ReplyDeleteWell, if you feel he's not a winner, why would you be willing to shell out 5M per season?
For the record, he lead the Islanders with 4pts in 5 games. A single player can only do so much....there isn't a single player in the league that could have won the series for the Islanders against the Sabres.
Lastly, why are you so sure that teams will regret his contract in the final 2 years of the deal? Cap going up....who is to say Ryan can't produce the same numbers at 34? or 35? See Joe Sakic? He's no spring chicken, still has game. Lidstrom, Selanne, etc. Sure there will come a time when his play will fall, but that isn't something we can predict with certainty...
Smyth in a Flames jersey would be a kick to the nuts. If he has any respect for Oiler fans, he just won't sign there.
Asia: Yeah, I hear you re:Redden's relative youth. It seems to me though that an organization has to go with its strengths or all is lost. You can find the exact point the Orioles lost their way, and that was when the pitching procurement went south (in a bottle purchased by Dennis Martinez).
ReplyDeleteOilers under Lowe have been exceptional at finding quality defense for low prices. That formula didn't work this past season because they airmailed two kids, and now imo Lowe is going to fill the CFP spot with Redden.
But is that the wisest use of the 6.5M?
PJO: I think Smyth would have to be rated below Sakic in career "bell curve." If we drew their careers on a curve, Joe would peak earlier, have a longer sustain, and a much longer coda.
ReplyDeletebtw, one of the great posters at HF is Darth Milbury and I feel kind of bad for him tonight. Islanders paid in full for 30 games of Ryan.
ReplyDeleteDarth is a good poster for sure.
I don't feel too sorry for him or the Isles. Time will tell, but it's entirely likely they gave up very little for Smyth. The pick is 15th which isn't earth shattering, while Nilsson and O'Marra are fighting uphill against their numbers and past performance to become impact players.
Besides that the Isles don't make the playoffs or force an extra game without making that deal. If you're the type that likes to put dollar figures on draft picks and prospects, then consider this: At worst the Isles added probably $3MM above Smyth's cost for 30 games with those two home playoff dates alone.
Smyth was definitely a force in that series. Easily the Isles' best player.
Have you watched Redden these playoffs LT? He's either injured or not worth the expense.
At the time the deal was made, the Islanders were 6th-7th in the Conference. Not contenders, but you can't blame them going for it.
ReplyDeleteDidn't Lowe do the same thing last year? Gave up a 1st and 3rd for Roloson, a 2nd, Stastny, and Reasoner for two rental players...
I'm not sure if Robert Nilsson will ever make an impact on the Oilers. The small, skilled but lack toughness and lose battles in the corners...just aren't my cup of tea.
O'Marra does sound a bit better two way player, but there are justifiable questions surround his offensive game. I'd be thrilled if he turns into a Grier type (what a fucking player).
Riv put down the Kreskin glasses - you have just made about 10 assumptions regarding the future value of 3 players 5 years down the road.
ReplyDeleteNillsen is no biggie for me - but you consistently undervalue O'Marra who looked fantastic in his AHL debut as an 18 year old and suffered through a injury plagued year as a 19 year old. He's big, smart, tough and projects as a 20 goal checking line center for me - that's valuable. As for the #15 pick - hell you don't even have name and you've dismissed his value. However you cut it - that's a lot of assets for 2 stinking playoff games and I don't think anyone in NYI is happy.
We were going to miss the playoffs with or without Smyth and lost nothing in terms of playoff revenue or buzz, gained 3 first round picks and still have the ability to sign him in the summer - NYI gave up the 3 first round picks, got 2 playoff games and has no guarentees about re-signing Smyth - are you really telling me that you would want to be in their shoes right now instead of ours?
Whoever Smyth signs with next year instantly becomes my 2nd favourite team. Unless it's the Flames. Or Leafs. Or, uh, Oilers, obviously.
ReplyDeleteGiven the choice between Smyth and Redden, I'd still take Smyth. We can get Smyth for nothing but $$$ whereas Redden will cost slightly more $$$ (assuming he were to sign long term) and he'd also cost Torres + Isles 1st + Schremp or someone. Roughly.
But i'm pretty biased towards Smyth, so....
Asiaoil said...
ReplyDeleteRiv put down the Kreskin glasses - you have just made about 10 assumptions regarding the future value of 3 players 5 years down the road.
No, I've made three assumptions.
Nillsen is no biggie for me
OK, so we're agreed there.
but you consistently undervalue O'Marra who looked fantastic in his AHL debut as an 18 year old...
Did you see him play in his AHL debut? It was a grand total of 8 games.
and suffered through a injury plagued year as a 19 year old.
What about his other years in junior? Where are the numbers?
He's big, smart, tough and projects as a 20 goal checking line center for me - that's valuable.
Now who's making assumptions? the key word there is "projects" and I don't think his past performance suggests he's a 20 goal scorer in the NHL. He might not even be Chad Kilger.
As for the #15 pick - hell you don't even have name and you've dismissed his value.
Impact players are few and far between even as early as mid-1st round. The Oilers just bought another lottery ticket. That's all I'm saying.
However you cut it - that's a lot of assets for 2 stinking playoff games and I don't think anyone in NYI is happy.
They shopped those guys around for a reason. They should be happy - they got some playoff action and gave up little to get there.
I can't see him going to the Flames - they have a lot of other Cap issues upcoming before they start throwing 6M per contracts around.
ReplyDeleteOne team that hasn't been mentioned that makes a lot of sense to me - the Canucks. They have most of their core guys locked up already and could use a guy like Smyth - good two way player who can do one thing not a lot of Canucks can - score.
BDHS: Calgary makes a lot of sense imo. They'd need to offload Tanguay but that's a trade anyone would make, with a nice well priced veteran D returning being the best scenario for Sutter.
ReplyDeleteSay what you will about Calgary, but they've been to a Cup final too and have managed to keep their best players. Edmonton's resume isn't as impressive despite the Cup run.
Sutter has some mysterious forwards on his roster who are seemingly incapable of a forward pass but adding Smyth and subtracting Tanguay looks esthetically pleasing no matter who you cheer for imo.
RQ: I agree Redden looks ineffective. I also think the Oilers need to realize they aren't one or two player (CFP and Peca, for instance) away from being strong contenders. They need to build with players from the 25-27 area and sign them to long term deals (guys like Torres) and get some of those mid-level forwards like Dvorak back in the fold.
Even if it only helps the development of guys like Pouliot then it's all good. A healthy Redden would be a nice choice for a team ready to take on Calgary next season but the Oilers aren't that team.
08-09, that's what Lowe must be doing. Unless he can bring in 8 guys like Redden, Dvorak, Mike Johnson, etc. then they're going to have to give 500 at-bats to several kids again this season.
The best thing we can say about the 07-08 Oilers at this point is there is no possible way they'll break in two raw rookie defensmen.
Right? RIGHT?
You've gotta love Smyth at $3.5 million this year and last - pure value in a moneyball sense - he's a great ES player as I freely admit. But at $5.5 million or whatever he gets - you are paying in full for his services and the team is taking on all the risk that he stays healthy and VERY productive.
ReplyDeleteThat's kind of the thing though. You can't have a team of 20 somethings because you can't draft enough of them. I sort of wonder if Lowe and Co. want to spend their big bucks on guys closing in on UFA status - less health risk and cheaper and spread their veteran money around. In any event, I would have swallowed hard and paid it. I've gone back and forth a million times on whether Smyth's game is conducive to playing for a long time...some days I think yes, some days I think no. Today's a yes day.
Somehow, that Islander jersey all in orange looks so wrong on Smyth.
ReplyDeleteGiving up Assets to Ottawa
ReplyDeletethen paying Redden $6.5
is a Bad Idea
If the Oilers can afford $6.5 on one guy
[$6.5 is his cap hit, is his salary higher?],
Use it to front-end load a Free agent contract for Smyth or Markov or some guy they think will work with Hemsky
Use the Assets to acquire some mid-level forwards.
Funny headline in the Journal this morning
"Sabres banish Satan, Isles"
Satan?
Any other former Oilers on that team?
That's a package the Isles were throwing around so I doubt they gave up anything that made them lose sleep. There was something they saw about Nilsson that screamed expendability and this draft wasn't so deep that their pick looked super-valuable. O'Marra seems like an NHLer for sure but as a difference-maker? Probably not.
ReplyDeleteDreger was in spin mode last night talking about how Lowe holds all the cards now but how many of those cards are worth bragging about? A lot of things went wrong for the isles after that deal and it isn't like Smyth caused them. If Rick D didn't get hurt, the Isles might very well be 6th and now they'd be in the second round. Not to mention Simon going nuts and the last straw, Hill's suspension.
I don't think Snow gave up a whole lot so I still think it was a good gamble and speaking of injuries, it looked like 94 was just getting his legs back in the last two games of the series after getting injured late in the season vs the Rags. The reason the Isles never made this a real reason was they really got nothing outside of the A94-Sillinger-Hunter trio. Blake didn't find any real chem with anyone and we know about the rest.
I don't know Dennis, the Islanders are in a bad spot now. They have some cap money but really don't have much to trade "in the system" that will get them anywhere. Okposo is a player they can deal, but it would be foolish to do so. Islanders have holes (we all saw that) and outside free agency there aren't a lot of options available for the GM.
ReplyDeleteAs for the value of the three assets, certainly none of them is going to get Lowe an impact player, but a guy like Nilsson could be used as part of a package instead of giving up Pouliot and that in itself gives Lowe some options.
Lowe has a bunch of assets. His problem is the kids alone won't get him his impact acquisition, which is why Torres is probably heading out of town.
Yeah, outside of the fantastic contract for Rick D, there's very little to be optimistic about in Long Island from my perspective. Despite the popular theory that Smyth return package was a throw away for that franchise, it doesn't wash with me. Their prospect depth is pretty thin now, and I'd be pretty apprehensive about going forward with a defence core that's headed by Tom Poti and MAB. Those two had a pretty decent series and seem to be long lost brothers considering how they've positively bolstered each other's results, but c'mon.
ReplyDeleteIf you watched the series, which they were very fortunate to look even half decent in, and focus on who did what, alot of the positives on that team have some sort of FA status this off-season.
I guess we'll have to wait and see boys. I hated the Pronger trade and I was proven right about that by around Feb but I'd imagine this one's gonna take a little longer to boil.
ReplyDeleteOverall I still hate the deal and specfically the the idea that the Oilers think they can find a better way to spend the 5.5 that 94 was looking for. LT is right that maybe Nilsson becomes the AND part of a deal rather than MP and at least that would be a positive. As for how much some of these kids will fetch, I don't think that Schremp is gonna be garbage but I think some of the shine is off him and that there might not be much shine left on a guy like Nilsson either and when Lowe's talking cogs and chorney, that makes me think that even he's no longer optimistic about some of the "older" kids and that makes me wonder just how other orgs view them as well.
The Oilers need to find a stupid team with a pricey contract or two And that's their best chance to make hay.