A few stats of note:
- Canadian defender Mark Katic leads the tournament at +11.
- Canadian forward Steven Stamkos is the points leader (2-8-10 in 5gp).
- The Russian Cherepanov is tied for goal scoring lead with 4.
- The 2008 Draft is going to be tremendous. Stamkos, Drew Doughty, Zac Boychuk and several others are putting the wood to opponents with regularity. For an Oilers fan it's kind of depressing to have three first rounders the year before the watershed.
- If you know of any blogs/sites that are offering info (aside from the IIHF site) on the tournament, I'd appreciate a head's up. I've tried to see the televised games but haven't seen a one (life gets in the way).
I'm starting to believe the Oilers will take Karl Alzner (in photo)with their pick at #6. Why?spee
ds doesn't want them to (this is the strongest indicator. speeds is the reverse Kreskin on this stuff). I saw him play last night and he doesn't appear to have the offensive upside you'd want from a defenseman taken that high in the draft. Since Oilers' fans have their hopes dashed routinely at the draft ("we had Steve Kelly and Shane Doan rated basically even") one must brace themselves for the worst and hope to be pleasantly surprised in a "well that's not a huge dent in my car" kind of way.
All the guys Edmonton might want (Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Voracek) are going to be gone based on the teams drafting in front of them. Too many Philadelphia's (who know what they're doing) and not enough Phoenix's (who are doing a nice job of showing those too young to remember just how Oakland built the Seals).
I personally don't see Alzner as all that bad of a pick. I know we're all hoping for a miraculous stud player after the season we've gone through and I know Alzner doesn't sound like that guy...
ReplyDeleteBut he looks like he can be a valuable player:
18-19: 47pts - 63 GP - 0.75ppg
Chris Phillips:
18-19: 48pts - 58 GP - 0.83ppg
Alzner had less pts in his 17-18 yr season but it looks like no one really scored much for the Hitmen that season.
We'll see how this comparison holds up in the future but if it holds any semblance of truth, I'd say it's a fine pick.
I expect the Oilers to make a splash on draft day. There's a possibility we may not have any first round picks this year.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't this guy have to be an absolute can't miss for us to spend such a high pick on yet another dman? We've got an absolute tonne of those guys that we're currently picking through yet alone adding yet another one.
ReplyDeleteI've love to use a Schremp plus the 6th to move up but I don't know if Robbie had that kind of value before he tore up his knee, let alone after.
Momentai: Problem is Phillips didn't become Phillips for a long time. With the new CBA, a team has to be aware that if a player matures 2 years quicker and can be used 2 years sooner that's 2 years said team gets before ufa. I don't remember the exact year Phillips started paying off but iirc he was fairly typical in that it took a long time. Certainly after the turn of the century.
ReplyDeleteMuller: Yeah, I think the Oilers will deal a roster player, the 15th pick and a high end prospect for a Wade Redden-name type player. Lowe can't afford to get killed July 1 and then wait for teams to float their average rfa's and if he does then he'll be in a new town a year from now.
Dennis: Agree completely. Unless you're drafting Denis Potvin then there's no reason to take a defenseman (or goalie) that high. Logan Couture may not be as good a prospect as Alzner, but there's every reason to believe he'll arrive earlier and have a larger pre-ufa impact.
If Lowe drafts Alzner, there's every chance he won't be the GM when the kid arrives in the NHL.
LT I've seen a couple of the games and left some notes on Lord Bob's site. There are a few things that I have picked up from the tourney, and I'm finding it really interesting to tie the players to their scouting reports. I'll disclaimer all of these notes by saying that I'm just a hockey fan who likes seeing these kids for myself.
ReplyDeleteRiemsdyk has been both dominant and snakebitten for large parts of the tourney and in the last game against Canada he finally seemed to snap out of it. He leads the tourney in shots so far, is tied for second in overall points, and tied for first in goals. He was quite frankly amazing in the Canada game and it was apparent that he can straight out play as he was using his size to protect the puck but also showing some highly skilled 1-on-1 moves including a between the legs deke on Katic IIRC. I'm fairly certain that Philly will not pass on him. A bit of a problem to note is that despite coming out with 8 points, he's only a +1 in the tourney overall.
Katic looks good in that he seems to be a smart, coachable player. Cherepanov was mostly invisible in the Canada game because Katic was playing a really physical game with him and taking away all of his space. I really think it forced Cherepanov to withdraw, as he really doesn't like the rough stuff or playing in crowded areas from what I can tell. Given our history with Russians I really think we should avoid him. Sort of looked like Samsonov out there, as he plays small in a hunched over sort of way and is similarly easy to knock off the puck by the boards. He's skilled though and I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington take him to play with Semin.
Turris obviously has some skill, but just as Cherepanov sort of looked like Samsonov, so too did Turris look like Lupul. He has a good shot, but it seemed somewhat that he needed a decent amount of time to get it off. Fortunately he seems good at getting away from a defender watching the puck in order to make space for himself. The main thing that reminded me of Lupul is that he was extremely easy to push around. There is hope though, as that very well may be a result of his weight. As someone else noted previously, it really does look like he is skating without shinpads because his legs are so thin.
Couture has not looked good at all, you really have to look for him out there. Two plays I can really remember from a couple of the games. The first he lined up a Russian for a big hit and got the elbow up. Sort of reminded me of a Stoll hit where he'll nail the guy, quickly look to see if the ref is looking, then give him another shove for good measure. The second was a good cycling play with Esposito and Turris. He seems to have a decent amount of grit and gets put out there to keep the other forwards honest. Doesn't look like a top10 pick to me in all honesty, though this could be a case where he just had a bad tourney.
Esposito: A lot of things that Mr Bugg (from Oilfans now, HF previously) has said about Esposito seem to be true. He hasn't had the offense he'd like in this tourney, but he's very often the first backchecker back due to his good skating. He's had two good scoring plays I've seen, the one where he waited for the right moment to pass to Turris (a no-look pass that was a bit off however), and another where he won an offensive zone faceoff and deked around 3 Russians to score alone before anyone knew what was going on. The problem is that those plays don't come along as often as you would like. His playing style is sort of like Hemsky's in that you could see how most people can watch him and come away with the impression that he's lazy. I think a lot of the over-expectations of him are derived from a rookie year where he scored a lot due to being on a phenomenal Quebec team. That being said, I think his potential is closer to a faster, more mature Ribeiro than a Hemsky.
For US defensemen that are eligible this year the one that really stood out to me is Shattenkirk. He's had a big year and from seeing him you can very quickly tell why. He plays big minutes and he's an excellent offensive defensemen who loves to carry the puck himself or jump into the rush when someone else is carrying. Apparently the knock on him is that this can lead to defensive lapses, and though I didn't notice any big mistakes in the Canada game I can definitely see that how that could happen. However he is quick and seems to be able to recover using that. I think maybe the Canada/US game was a case of "seeing him good." He was apparently ranked 21 by the ISS, but after this tourney I could see him going 11-14. The ISS fellow from HF boards apparently now thinks he's going to go in the top10.
What you said about the 2008 draft class is bang on, LT. There's going to be some stud defensemen (Colten Teubert is ranked #1 and Drew Doughty #2 I believe) and just an excellent mix of both playmaking (Stamkos) and scoring (Boychuk) forwards, and that's just from Canada. In every game I watched, the Boychuk, Arniel, and Stamkos line was dangerous every time it was out, either on the rush or dishing passes from the boards. I've been bitching profusely to my friends about how it's just our luck to have 3 picks in a crap year with the next year promising to have an excellent top10, though granted I havn't heard much about it's depth.
Anyway, that's most of what I noticed, just thought I'd throw it out there. For what it's worth, I agree that we shouldn't waste our time developing or waiting on a defensemen like Alzner, however I think we also shouldn't draft Turris for the same reason as he's indicated he wants to stay in college for the full 4.
Oh and because I know you wanted us to look at him, Gillies has looked good in that he's always hitting people and breaking up plays. He was put out a lot in the third in the US/Canada game for what that's worth. It's problematic that he did fan on a few golden opportunities over a few games, maybe indicating he doesn't have the offensive upside you would want from a first round forward.
Something I forgot to mention is that Canada have way too many centres for this tourney, meaning a lot of forwards were playing out of natural position the entire time. Just something to keep in mind when judging Couture, as I believe he was playing LW.
ReplyDeletejoninabox: Thanks. That's exactly what I was looknig for, someone who has seen these guys. Excellent.
ReplyDeleteI dont see why everyone's blackballing Alzner. The West has been bringing out some great defensive prospects in the past few years, and Alzner seems to be in the same mold as many of them in terms of work ethic. Phaneuf in Calgary, Shea Weber in Nashville's playing top4 minutes, Seabrook and Barker in Chicago. Brent Burns is starting to come into his own as a top4 D-man this year also. Jason Smith could make an amazing role model to young Alzner if he's still in Oiler colours in 2 years time. I think he could be top-pair material based on his offensive abilities, and from what i've seen from watching his Hitmen kill my Wheat Kings, he can play in his own end too.
ReplyDeleteThat's a pretty good synopsis Joninabox. I only saw parts of the Canada/US game, so my sample size is kind of small. Shattenkirk looks to be someone I think the Oilers should spend the Islander pick on if he's still available. He's a poised playmaker from the back end and is playing huge minutes. Looks to have some leadership ability too, being named team captain. Seems he's similar in ways to Taylor Chorney but maybe with a higher ceiling.
In terms of the Oiler pick, I'd love to still move up and snag Voracek, he should still be available at the second spot. I think Chicago's pretty set on taking a high scoring centre to play with, and that's Patrick Kane. I'd like to think Philly would give up the prospect more readily than Washington, simply because Philly needs to win. If we give up a roster player that'll help them out like Gilbert or Smid and couple it with our first rounder, Voracek could be ours. If they hold onto 6th, Couture looks like the best plan over the other offensive performers like Gagner or Esposito if they don't take Alzner.
One has to remember that the draftable kids are the oldest players in this tournament - if they are not dominating here - then warning bells should be ringing. Just being "good" is not enough IMHO.
ReplyDeleteI want Voracek and that likely means trading up. We have a ton of young centers - too many in fact - and we should be able to do a swap with CHI in which they get immediate help and the #6 pick. Helps both teams IMHO.
If we can't trade up (and I really don't see any reason why we won't be able to aside from Lowe over-rating his assets) then I am happy to pitch the #6 pick for an impact forward or dman. None of Cherry, Turis, Gagner, Alzner, JVR, or Kane really turn my crank - so I'd be happy to pick up a player that can help us immediately and take our chances with the NYI and ANA picks.
LT: We're not really expecting him to walk in and be Chris Phillips in year one after his draft year or even year 2. However, that is far from stating he can't be a contributor to the club in a lesser role in his fledgeling years. Maybe drafting a kid like Alzner lets us flip Smid to a team looking to rebuild and unload?
ReplyDeleteI don't deny that he might take a while to adjust to the NHL level. But I can't think that hypothetically passing on all dmen because of development issues as opposed to forwards is ever going to be a prudent choice.
And looking at Phillips' icetimes on NHL.com, he was 3rd at ESTOI/GM in 01-02 as far as I can see. They don't have stats past that point so I can't tell you if he received as many minutes years prior.
If Lowe can't make a deal to help this club (be it upward mobility at the draft or for a roster player) and Karl Alzner is the best player available then you absolutely have to take him IMO.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm being naive about development issues but I look at how Nashville could trade a guy like Parent for Forsberg and not really sweat it as evidence that having a glut of prospects in the same position isn't a bad thing at all. If depth makes guys expendable then at least you're getting something for them because they are players of a high calibre.
Regarding the tournament: historically what is the effect of the tourny on draft position? I could see it being very important in terms of comparing players with the elite of their age but I worry about any short-term analysis of a player's worth because there seem to be all sorts of factors that may contribute to "saw him good" or other short-term fallacies in judgement.
Regarding 2008: well damn if Edmonton couldn't even tank at the right time. I don't expect them to do quite as badly as they did this year but next season I definitely don't see them competing for a top 5 pick. Damn again.
LT: Saw the semi-final agsint the Americans and the game against the Russians. Doughty looks amazing thus far. He pretty much can do it all. When the Canadians played the Russians I wasn't all that impressed with Cherepanov.
ReplyDeleteVanRiemsdyk looked good throughout the semi-final, and is a big reason Team USA advanced to the finals.
Even though we lost in a shootout, the Americans deserved the game. We were severely outplayed in the third and OT.
Yeah, last year's Hitmen were highly reminescent of 2004's Flames -- a kick-ass goalie and not much offensively. This year, they've got a good amount going on at the top end of their roster. Chris Phillips sounds like a reasonable comp: won't blow you away but won't get you killed, either.
ReplyDeleteWas the Hitmen game on Sportsnet Friday? I saw that the Vancouver-PG game was last night, but I never thought to check the night before. Too bad.