Lowetide

What'd I Say?

2012-01-12T07:45:00.000-07:00

And with that, we close the book on new content at this blog. It will remain as an archive as we continue to move over the comments section and find an easy way to index things at the new place. I hope you join me, but do understand if this breaks the chain.

This has been an education, a passion and a tremendous amount of fun. It was a shared expression, empty without you. I thank you for that, and sincerely hope you'll indulge me in this one time move across the street.

God bless, thanks for the memories.

New blogsite: http://lowetide.ca/blog/

G 42 Devils at Oilers

2012-01-11T05:00:00.010-07:00

Las Vegas in the olden days must have been something else. The NHL will be expanding soon, 2 more teams are required to make things work. Among the possible cities are Toronto 2.0, Quebec City, Las Vegas, Seattle, Kansas City. The old KC Scouts are in town tonight.

Steve Tambellini could help this team by adding a veteran defenseman now. I understand the hope is that Ryan Whitney is going to be available in the fall but counting on it is unwise. Adding a defender now, and another in the summer, would put a smile on the face of many Oiler fans. That defender may be unavailable now, but two in the summmer should be the plan.

Oilers lost RNH, Jordan Eberle and Tommy Gilbert from the December club that was putrid and have called up Magnus Paajarvi and Ryan O'Marra. NJD are terrible too, this is the kind of game I used to get free tickets to back in the day (not true, the Canuck tickets were the easiest to get) and win or lost it'll be tough to entertain the fans unless Taylor Hall is on fire again.

There's no way to disguise this thing. Oilers have stepped into the elevator shaft and there's no help coming. It'll be interesting to see how many games they win between tonight and the return of Gilbert, Eberle and RNH. Stan Weir spends another season parked in the garage.

Eberle Out 2-3 weeks (per Gregor twitter)

2012-01-10T07:32:00.001-07:00

I'll remember the day Jordan Eberle was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers. Wall to wall grin and as we roll along it's a good starting point for the current cluster. Today or tomorrow or a week from now the Oilers will tell us how bad his current injury is and how long he'll be gone.

Eberle's loss is a big one, and of course injuries are beginning to become a prominent theme for this gifted cluster. RNH is already on the shelf from a freak injury and Taylor Hall has missed time in both seasons due to injury (as has Eberle with the current problem).

Feb 4, 2011: Jordan Eberle misses 13 games with sprained left ankle.
March 5, 2011: Taylor Hall misses the final 17 games of the 10-11 season with ankle injury.
Nov 30, 2011: Taylor Hall misses 7 games with shoulder injury.
Jan 3, 2012: RNH injured and out with a shoulder injury.
January 2012: Eberle injured and out with knee injury.

We shouldn't get into the fetal position over this, but injuries to young players are a concern. The future of the Edmonton Oilers sure is getting hurt quite a bit. They're freak accidents but that doesn't change their possible impact. We're lucky in one way: no reported C word, and with Taylor Hall as one of your young guns that's a shocker.

As for Eberle, we'll wait to hear and I'll update as able and know you'll do the same. I thank you for it.

Half Time Stats

2012-01-09T17:14:00.002-07:00

Who's Zoomin' who? Which of the Oilers young forwards is delivering the best season in 11-12? How much is RNH's 5x4 worth?

There are many in the Oilogosphere better able to answer these questions, but the old man would like to have a lash which can also serve as a mid-season reference. Everything here is courtesy Gabriel Desjardins and his brilliant work at behind the net.

5x5/60 forwards

Eberle 3.23
Smyth 2.46
RNH 2.02
Hall 1.99
Gagner 1.79
Jones 1.76
Eager 1.53
Hemsky 1.52
Horcoff 1.28
Petrell 1.04
Belanger 0.83
Paajarvi 0.67
Lander 0.57

Eberle is all-world this season. I've suggested this is a legit step forward--he's bordering on becoming an impact player--that's maybe jumping the gun a little but even if we default to established level ability (rookie season) the young man appears to be (at the least) a legit top 6F.
Smyth has been out of this world compared to his own recent past.
RNH is delivering solid if unspectacular numbers at 5x5. We'll know more as we progress down the disciplines.
Taylor Hall is moving up this chart rapidly but did have a prolonged drought during the first half. As we get to better know these young players, Hall may be the more streaky of the phenoms.
Sam Gagner has rescued his season over the last few weeks. I'm cheering like hell for him, these last 15 games have been vital for his Oiler career.
Ales Hemsky saw the knives the moment his injuries at an ineffective streak met. Reading between the lines, I'd guess there was a disconnect at some level for awhile. The only remaining question relates to how deep it goes. Is this msm or does management feel the same way?
Shawn Horcoff. Lordy.
Eric Belanger. Any time would be good, still cheering for you.
Anton Lander. Not enough offense.

CORSI REL/forwards

Fascinating list. Hall's heading in the right direction and that's an understatement. Hemsky posts an interesting number here too, and a shout out to young Paajarvi and my guy Gagner. Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander look like rookies.

ZONE START/forwards

Jones 43.4
Horcoff 45.4
Belanger 48.1
Smyth 48.7
Petrell 50.9
Paajarvi 50.9
Gagner 52.5
Eager 53.1
Lander 53.8
Hemsky 54.6
Hall 60.4
Eberle 64.9
RNH 66.8

Interesting, isn't it? Almost bass ackwards. Ryan Smyth sits near the top the 5x5 scoring despite the zone start and would have to be considered the team MVP at this point. Tough zone start, solid 5x5/60. Ryan Jones has the toughest zone starts of all and still delivers mid-level offense. Horcoff and Belanger are not good enough but we can see that they are doing some heavy lifting. Hemsky performs poorly based on zone start, I think injury is the item there.

QUAL COMP/forwards

Ryan Smyth is a killer. An absolute killer.
Horcoff has been climbing a mountain forever.
Even with the injury and the off-season so far, Hemsky has proven he can play against tough opposition. Distant bell now, but there it is.
Anton Lander. Yeah.

5x4/60 forwards

RNH 7.29
Jones 6.25
Hall 6.20
Eberle 5.32
Belanger 3.98
Horcoff 3.84
Gagner 3.64
Smyth 3.29
Hemsky 2.62

The Nuge number is among the best in the entire NHL, we don't know if there's going to be sustain but he could shave some and still be brilliant. On the other side of the scale, Hemsky can do better than that 10 days dead and I suspect his new team will be in love with him by April. Still, 83 has been trending downward for awhile now.

Hemsky 5x4

•06-07 5x4 per 60m: 5.45
•07-08 5x4 per 60m: 5.93
•08-09 5x4 per 60m: 5.00
•09-10 5x4 per 60m: 4.71
•10-11 5x4 per 60m: 3.47
•11-12 5x4 per 60m: 2.62

DEFENSE

CORSI REL/blue

Potter shows very well here, but he was a big part of the early run and was injured when things south. A guess would have him losing ground and back in the pack by spring. Tommy Gilbert is a gem, has been for a long time now. Laddy Smid has also turned the corner, but we should also remember that Theo Peckham had some good weeks when paired with Gilbert a year ago.

Petry and Sutton look okay here, Peckham looks like he's regressed but it's probably just pairing/opponent and Teubert's a kid. Barker did what we thought he'd do and Ryan Whitney is caught in a loop of Ray Milland's Lost Weekend.

ZONE START/blue

Gilbert, Smid and Sutton are doing the heavy work here although the range isn't close to the gap seen at forward. Potter definitely gets the easy at-bats and of course that contributes to the corsi rel above. I like Petry's, Smid's and Gilbert's finish and Sutton can be thrown in there too. Jesus Barker.

QUAL COMP/blue

Smid and Gilbert do the heavy lifting and then it's a blur. Fair?

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS AND PHENOMS

Edmonton's future is in the hands of Hall, RNH and Eberle and along the blue you'd think Smid and Gilbert would be part of the plan. I'd keep Ryan Smyth around because he's having a terrific season and can mentor the kids, and Ryan Jones is playing so well that keeping him around is a no-brainer. I like Gagner and Horcoff's contract means he's here forever. On D, Petry and Potter make sense and Dubynk is a goalie you keep because the alternatives beyond 2013 summer are a distant bell. And for crying out loud stop the nonsense and sign Hemsky.

Devan Dubnyk
Tom Gilbert
Ladislav Smid
Corey Potter
Jeff Petry
RNH
Shawn Horcoff
Taylor Hall
Ryan Smyth
Ryan Jones
Jordan Eberle
Ales Hemsky
Sam Gagner

After that? I don't know. What say you?

Total Recall

2012-01-09T09:46:00.000-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers have recalled Gilbert Brule, Magnus Paajarvi and Ryan O'Marra from Oklahoma City. We can imply a few things from this transaction, including the fact that Teemu Hartikainen and Josh Green didn't impress enough in their latest cup of coffee.

We await news today on Jordan Eberle's injury, and there's a chance Brule won't get through waivers.

Rookies

2012-01-09T06:54:00.001-07:00

Despite appearances, the Edmonton Oilers are relying far less on rookies this NHL season. The huge number of rookies from a year ago are still developing but at least the pace of new hires has slowed to a more normal rate.

11-12 Rookies (TOI)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 658
Corey Potter 549
Anton Lander 395
Lennart Petrell 282
Colten Teubert 182
Alex Plante 32
Teemu Hartikainen 27
Ryan O'Marra 20

A quick note: the NHL doesn't count Potter and Petrell as rookies, but I do because they are first year NHLers and their arrival at a later age doesn't make playing in the league any easier. The 11-12 Oilers have used rookies for 2,145 minutes this season, so we should expect about 4,000 total minutes devoted to rookies over the entire year. Fair?

2010-11 (TOI)

Devan Dubnyk 2061
Magnus Paajarvi 1231
Jordan Eberle 1220
Taylor Hall 1184
Linus Omark 783
Jeff Petry 713
Ryan O'Marra 231
Teemu Hartikainen 209
Chris VandeVelde 207
Alex Plante 45

7,884 minutes or thereabouts devoted to rookies. Man that's a lot of time on ice. The Oilers have graduated a ton of kids since G7 SCF in 2006:

06-12 Rookies (6 years)

Jeff Deslauriers (09-10) 2798
Devan Dubnyk (10-11) 2061
Tom Gilbert (07-08) 1820
Ladislav Smid (06-07) 1481
Sam Gagner (07-08) 1238
Magnus Paajarvi (10-11) 1231
Jordan Eberle (10-11) 1220
Taylor Hall (10-11) 1140
Andrew Cogliano (07-08) 1112
Kyle Brodziak (07-08) 1033
Jan Hejda (06-07) 795
Linus Omark (10-11) 783
Patrick Thoresen (06-07) 776
Taylor Chorney (09-10) 730
Jeff Petry (10-11) 713
Curtis Glencross (07-08) 709
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11-12) 658
Marc Pouliot (06-07) 600
Corey Potter (11-12) 549
Liam Reddox (08-09) 481
Brad Winchester (06-07) 476
Anton Lander (11-12) 395
Danny Syvret (06-07) 295
Jean Francois Jacques (06-07) 293
Ryan Stone (09-10) 293
Lennart Petrell (11-12) 281
Theo Peckham (09-10) 241
Ryan O'Marra (10-11) 231
Matheiu Roy (06-07) 226
Teemu Hartikainen (10-11) 209
Chris VandeVelde (10-11) 207
Zach Stortini (06-07) 207
Colten Teubert (11-12) 182
Bryan Young (06-07) 151
Steve MacIntyre (08-09) 86

The Oilers have graduated a lot of players to the NHL since they went deep into the spring 2006 playoffs. Cogliano, Brodziak, Hejda, Glencross, Winchester and others have spent time in the NHL this season. Moving back the cluster has its downside, and one of them is being a development team for more successful organizations. Would Curtis Glencross help the Oilers?

The best rookies by position are Dubnyk, Smid, Gilbert, RNH, Hall and Eberle. That's a helluva group. I expect that the Oilers will add a lot of rookie minutes in the second half, after all these injuries have to be filled and the trade deadline means veterans leaving town.

Is Corey Potter part of the long term or another Jan Hejda? I bet they sign him.

Sail On, Sailor

2012-01-08T10:28:00.000-07:00

We did this a couple of weeks ago but the Oilers road trip, injuries and zero talk about an Ales Hemsky extension get us here. The Oilers will be active from now to the deadline. Book it.

INJURY

The road trip was a disaster on all levels, but losing RNH, Gilbert and Eberle is especially cruel. Edmonton sent down Teemu Hartikainen and Josh Green after the game and it's reasonable that they'll recall two or three after that game (Oilers play Wedn, OKC doesn't play again until Friday).

I spoke to coach Todd Nelson yesterday and he was strong on several players. He told me that Hartikainen had worked very hard in his time in OKC, that Magnus Paajarvi had done everything asked and was making things happen. He also took time to sing the praises of Ryan O'Marra, Tanner House and Chris VandeVelde and we discussed the key to Phil Cornet's success (pretty much all of his goals are coming from in-close, those high traffic areas).

I'd estimate the recalls could come from that group depending on need, and don't forget Gilbert Brule (although he is coming back from a freak injury and just getting into the swing of things).

STARE DOWN

Ales Hemsky hasn't talked contract in awhile and in our hearts I think we know this is going a certain way. The return will be interesting, and Hemsky is the feature player for the Oilers deadline '12:

Ales Hemsky: Dennis King mentioned yesterday that Los Angeles and Nashville would be good candidates because they have miles of defensemen and need offensive help. I think LA, but would add in Detroit because it makes so much sense. His value will be reduced, but my guess is that he'll bring back a defenseman with some NHL experience and still on his entry level deal.
Andy Sutton: Laugh all you want, these are the guys who have surprising trade value at the deadline. Sutton has been riding an insane EV SP this season and has a solid CorsiRel against third pairing opposition, meaning he'd be a good candidate to move. I'll guess the return is about two rounds above what we're all thinking, so let's make it a 4th round selection.
Nikolai Khabibulin: Jason Gregor said it best a week or two ago, if the Oilers aren't listening to offers on him then the club isn't doing due diligence. NK could garner a high draft pick (late first, early second) or perhaps a quality prospect in return. That might seem like a high price, but ask Tbay about the importance of goaltending.

THE FUTURE

RNH, Horcoff, Belanger, Lander
Hall, Smyth, Paajarvi, Eager
Eberle, Gagner, Jones, Hartikainen
Smid, Gilbert
Whitney, Potter
Peckham, Petry
Plante
Dubnyk

It'll be a summer devoted to blue and (if they trade Khabibulin) goaltending. This is where things usually go off the rails (Souray, etc) so we'll see. I wish we were talking about signing Ales Hemsky but we're not doing that today.

G41 Oilers at Stars

2012-01-07T09:49:00.000-07:00

You can see the Oilers future on display every time they play. Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and on it goes. A 220-pound Finn winger is trying to wiggle into the everyday lineup and said player has some nice things. Is there room? Who goes?

Teemu Hartikainen is 220 pounds of mad Finn, and as he showed last spring the young man can impact the game down low and in populated places. They used to call these guys "corner men" or "diggers" and it's a valuable skill, especially on a team like the Edmonton Oilers.

Teemu's position is LW, a slot that currently boasts Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth, Ben Eager, Darcy Hordichuk and (in OKC) Magnus Paajarvi. Guys like Sam Gagner have played there too this season. Here's the 5x5/60 numbers by LW this season for the Oilers:

Ryan Smyth 2.55
Taylor Hall 1.94
Ben Eager 1.61
Darcy Hordichuk 1.02
Magnus Paajarvi 0.67

I could have included Ryan Jones in the group but am counting him as a RW in this discussion. Gagner counts as a center for our purposes.

In order for Hartikainen to find steady employment in the NHL next season--and his corner work suggests he can compete and offer the team a somewhat unique skill set--the young man will have to battle Paajarvi and Eager for playing time.

Paajarvi has draft pedigree and Eager has a signed contract, so something has to give. They could move Paajarvi to RW (or Hartikainen for that matter) but that crowds that position too. What does it mean? The summer could be spent deciding between Paajarvi and Hartikainen and Linus Omark can't buy a thrill.

In a way it's a nice problem to have, but you, me and Stu MacGregor have to hope that coach Tom Renney makes the wise choice.

This is Cliff Johnson. Houston drafted him in 1966, but didn't become a regular in the majors for a decade. Why? Astros drafted him as a catcher and despite appearances (Cliff Johnson was a big man, and not quick or learned behind the plate) a catcher he would be. One year he hit 20 homer runs in fewer than 400 ab's in the Astrodome (Grand Canyon) and they made him catch 41 games.

Houston had an incredible procurement department in those years, but the management was addled. Hell one year they gave 676 at bats to a guy who couldn't hit one home run while Cliff Johnson watched his career go by.

Stu MacGregor and his staff have drafted these kids, but there's also a lot of luck involved in the process. Teemu Hartikainen is one of the 12 best forwards on this team when everyone is healthy, and he offers some unique components.

Is he here to stay?
--

Nation Radio hits the airwaves this afternoon at noon Edmonton time on Team 1260. We're up against the Oiler broadcast so I should also mention the archive will be available at the Nations sites in the next day or so. Guests scheduled to appear:

Todd Nelson, head coach for the OKC Barons. I'll ask him about Hartikainen's progress between being sent down and recalled, and we'll look over the roster and ask some questions about other Oiler prospects on the farm. Feel free to post questions and I promise to answer them.
James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail. Mirtle hit the internet with a combination of curiosity, integrity and a gift for writing. He's a straight shooter and I look forward to talking to him today.
Dennis King posts his scoring chances at MC's site but he's a national treasure for Oiler fans. I got a lot of questions after his last visit so we're bringing him back to discuss the Oilers, Oilers management, Edmonton media and if we have time we'll get his opinion of the Outdorr classic and its future.
Kent Wilson is improving the reputation of Flames bloggers one well written article at a time. We'll take about Mr. Iginla's journey to 500 goals and the promised land of NHL hockey, and discuss Jay Feaster's spring.
JP Nikota is one of the Pension Plan Puppets fine minds, and we'll talk about Burke, Wilson, Phaneuf and the saga of Colton Orr.

Questions are always welcome, you can post them here or email nationradio@theteam1260.com or @ItsNationRadio or Lowetide_ on twitter. Hope you can tune in.

Jordan

2012-01-06T07:49:00.001-07:00

This is beginning to get serious. Jordan Eberle--gap toothed man child from the flatlands--is finding the upper reaches of the NHL's scoring charts. Jordan Eberle is an emerging player, in that zone between "damn he's going to be an NHL player" and "stand back, I don't know how big this thing is gonna get!"

JORDAN'S PROGRESS

5x5/60: 3.24--first on the Oilers, 4th in the NHL (behind the net)
7th in NHL total points
tied for 9th (with Marian Hossa!) in points-per-game

There is a natural tendency to assume that the two #1 overall picks are the straw that stirs the drink, and certainly their time will come. However, I think it's worth mentioning that Jordan Eberle--selected in the "Pouliot-Schremp" range of the draft--is an emerging talent. The All-Star game is a glorified popularity contest but the truth is that Jordan Eberle has earned the right to play in that game. Jordan Eberle is one of the best young NHL players.

Full stop.

G40 Oilers at Blues

2012-01-05T07:41:00.001-07:00

We're reaching the midway point of this NHL season and lots of things are coming into view. There are many predictable things--Detroit, Chicago and Vancouver are at the top of the western conference standings and Jordan Eberle is in the top 10 in scoring.

The Oilers spent a decade without a "first shot scorer" and now they're falling out of the sky. Taylor Hall can score goals in close and by picking corners, RNH's passes make tap-ins a breeze, and then there's Jordan Eberle. (NOTE: I am not comparing Eberle to BH).

Jordan Eberle is a sublime young player. Terrific passer, ridiculous hands allow him to stickhandle in close (that goal against Russia was no fluke) and buddy has been scoring from outside the normal areas lately. I don't know if it's luck or he's found another foot on his fastball (Dennis mentioned changing scoring angles the other day) but he does appear to be beating goalies when he shouldn't be doing it.

God in heaven, please make this big brained prairie boy strong and sturdy, with a will of iron and endurance you don't normally see outside the porn industry. Amen.

This is Dave Hrechkosy. He scored 29 goals for Oakland as a rookie and never got close again. Losing teams--hey, I was a Montreal Expo fan, do you really want me to tell you about the Pepe Mangual/Bombo Rivera summer--have things like that happen all the time. 29 goals one year, 4 the next.

I've decided that the Oilers organization "test subject" in the Pepe/Bombo/Hrechkosy study is Magnus Paajarvi. Let's see how this turns out.
--

Anaheim GM Bob Murray told Helene Elliot last night that he has two untouchables--Sakku Koivi and Teemu Selanne--but everyone else in play. Ryan Getzlaf would be perfect for any team, but the Oilers don't have the bullets to acquire him without dealing one of the first overall's or Eberle (as part of a package). Their good defensemen are veterans like Beauchemin and Lydman, fine players but not quite right for the rebuild. Fowler is an interesting prospect but he's struggling defensively and that often ruins young D--it's been happening for decades (see Seals, Oakland: Rick Hampton).

St. Louis is a different team now that Hitchcock is in charge. He's very easy going right up until the first mistake. His (reported) style is similar to Billy Martin's baseball style. Legend has it that when Martin got to Oakland he had a meeting with his starting pitchers. They all agreed that they were going to throw strikes.

FIRST game of exhibition baseball, Rick Langford throws the first pitch. Ball one! TIME! Martin comes running out of the dugout and out to the mound. "I thought we agreed we were going to throw strikes?!!?!!"

:-)

OKC sends three to the All-Star Game

2012-01-04T17:21:00.001-07:00

Phil Cornet, Alex Plante and Yann Danis have enjoyed solid seasons so far in the AHL with the OKC Barons. All three will represent the Barons at this year's All-Star game.

Cornet would have to be considered the biggest surprise, after all it was uncertain what role he'd play in the organization this season. Plante has had his best season in the AHL, and his last year and a half in the league are trending in a good direction. Danis is a minor league veteran who has been solid in his return to the AHL.

I think it's important we take a moment to make the distinction between these AHL all-stars and actual elite level prospects. The outstanding prospects in OKC this season are Teemu Hartikainen and that group, these are men who have proven themselves in the very difficult AHL. However, making too many of that league's all star games tells us said player isn't moving up to the NHL as a regular. I'd rank Danis in that category, with the other two still in the prospect stage.
--

One of the cool things about having a solid minor league team is that the big club has options. Tanner House is one of many young pro's in OKC looking for a chance to grab an NHL job. How far down the depth chart is he?

The Oilers depth chart at center has improved mightily in the last couple of seasons. Drafting first overall will do that to you. The procurement department--both amateur and pro--have put in a solid job of adding players who could develop into useful NHLers.

Tanner House appears to be a useful AHL player already. Coach Todd Nelson uses him in a very productive manner as Neal Livingston details in an excellent scouting report. Mr. Livingston tells us his passing ability is a negative and that he's only average in size. Those things aside, the young man is a willing 2-way player with a strong work ethic.

Edmonton has recalled the following "role-playing" forwards this season:

Nov 30: Recalled Ryan O'Marra
Jan 2: Recalled Teemu Hartikainen
Jan 3: Recalled Josh Green

Men like Chris VandeVelde and Gilbert Brule have played in the NHL, and kids like Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton are young pro's well down the depth chart. Where does House rank?

My bet is that he's in the mix for the next recall. If Josh Green struggles in the next game and Edmonton decides they'd like a center, then it might come down to O'Marra, House and VandeVelde. O'Marra is probably the better bet, but House has to be getting good scouting reports from his coach and the Edmonton staff must be aware of his progress.

The Nuge is Out, All over Town

2012-01-04T07:43:00.003-07:00

The Nuge is out "indefinitely" according to this tsn report. There's no timeline for return, but he'll apparently miss at least 3-4 games. This vague information is similar to the Oilers handling of RNH's "will he stay or will he go" status during the period when he was eligible to be returned to junior.

For Oiler fans, one of the few remaining feelgood stories on the team is RNH's Calder run. Should that get derailed it's draft talk full throttle and I'm trying to put it off as long as possible this winter.

Canada lost last night against the Russians, ending their annual run to the Gold at the New Year's tournament. I'm no expert and the Canadians could ice three strong teams every year for this tournament but for me there was some strange happenings during the roster selection process.

On December 24th I wrote "the roster selection process is open to question. Some good players were sent home and the team looks weak in transition and has question marks down the middle." I hate people who second guess after a loss, but in this case there were legit questions about what they were doing and the young men retained versus sent home. Team Canada appears to have favored grit over skill and defensemen who can get the puck to the forwards over creative playmakers. They also chose wrong in goal. I think it was a mistake, just my opinion.

G39 Oilers at Sabres

2012-01-03T07:28:00.000-07:00

My goodness Gilbert Perreault was fun to watch. He could go end to end and deke the entire roster before potting a goal. He could score off the rush with his slapshot, he was a sublime passer and a stickhandling wizard. Buffalo began their franchise with "the franchise" and didn't stop there.

This is the French Connection. L-R Rick Martin (they used to play up his name, like Reeshard Martann although why they bothered in Buffalo is beyond me), Rene Robert and Perreault. The Sabres under Punch Imlach would use the draft extensively to build their team and had immediate success. They would also procure talent wherever and whenever possible:

Punch Imlach reneged on a verbal agreement with Boston to stay away from sniper Tom Webster, and sent the young winger to Detroit for G Roger Crozier.
Sat in his office until right at the deadline so Detroit could call and gift them with trusty C Don Luce.

Mostly it was the draft. 1970 brought Gil Perreault, 1971 Rick Martin plus wonderful 2-way winger Craig Ramsay and effective D Bill Hajt, 1972 Jim Schoenfeld and Peter McNab. 1973 was a misstep but 1974 brought Lee Fogolin and Danny Gare.

By 74-75, the Sabres were one of the top teams in the league. FOUR years. The spring of 1975 they were good enough to get a first round bye and then dispatched Chicago in 5 games and Montreal in 6 games (and that Habs team was a killer) before bowing to Bernie Parent and the Flyers.

Four years. Four.
--

I picked the Oilers for 13th in the conference and 27th overall this season, so can't be surprised they are 13th and 25th, respectively. Last night was a pretty terrific hockey game (injuries aside) and Buffalo is no screaming hell right now. Sabres are not a strong home team but the Oilers aren't good on the road and (I haven't checked) my brain tells me they are garbage on the 2nd night of btb's.

RNH and Gilbert must be hurt, because the Oilers called up Josh Green and Colten Teubert. It'll be fun to see Green back in an Oiler uniform and Teubert has played mostly well in his callups this season.

Predicting this team is insane, but if the veterans play like they did last night and Jordan Eberle insists on being an impact player, well you never know.

G38 Oilers at Hawks

2012-01-02T09:05:00.002-07:00

This is Phil Russell. He was a star as an Edmonton Oil King, was drafted by Chicago and enjoyed success in the Windy City. Edmonton's connections to Boston (Sather) and Detroit (all the old time Flyers like Bucyk and Ullman) are stronger, but the Chicago-Edmonton hockey story intersects from time to time.

This lineup is from sometime between 1963 and 1965, because Len Lunde ripped it up in Buffalo in those two seasons. Lunde would still be remembered in Edmonton because of some strong years with both the Oil Kings and old Edmonton Flyers in the 50s and 60s. JohnMiszuk played two seasons with the Flyers and would have graduated to the Detroit system but they traded him to Chicago in 1964.

Gerry Melnyk (his name is spelled that way universally now) was a very famous Edmonton hockey player with both the Oil Kings and Flyers. He was Edmonton born and bred, and if you ask any old timer about Melnyk you'll get a story or two. Guys my age won't tell you about him as a player, but will pass along the legend of the 1969 entry draft--an entire league afraid to select Bobby Clarke because of a medical condition--and the moment when Melnyk (a Flyers scout) finally convinced Bud Poile to take a chance. Not a bad day for scout Gerry Melnyk, Bobby Clarke did okay in Philly.

Both Hillmans are in that game, plus Bronco Horvath and some fine coaches in Al Arbour and Don Cherry. Larry Wilson's name is written in for Buffalo, he is Ron Wilson's (Toronto coach) Dad who passed away in 1979. Larry's brother Johnny Wilson (Ron Wilson's uncle) passed away over Christmas.

I love these threads that tie the game together, always have. I wish our forefathers had documented hockey the way baseball's lore has been so adored. Maybe it's better, all these little threads that tie the game to communities and families and timelines. Maybe they wouldn't be as special if everyone knew them.

But I do think it's a shame that we don't honor men like Johnny Wilson in the years after they pass from the game. Wonderful people touch this game and leave their mark. Len Lunde passed away over a year ago, and the things he did after leaving Edmonton were exceptional. There should be a place where we keep track of these men, tell stories, write them down and pass them along.

Oilers ripped it up in mid-November in a home game against Chicago. Hemsky scored early and then it was Mamma just wants to barrelhouse all night long. When they meet tonight it'll be a case of both teams being quick change artists; the Oilers look like they were born on the bad side of the moon and Chicago fans are indulging in crazy talk about the 2012 Stanley.

The Oilers finally made a roster move, and it makes sense. Lennart Petrell offered this team a solid PK option early, but the 4th line is beyond bad. Adding Teemu Hartikainen is at least recognition that sending Anton Lander out with extreme role players Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk is not a plan.

I also think it shows good sense to place Hartikainen on the highest line possible tonight. Give the kid a whirl with some skilled men, maybe he'll score a goal and have some chem. MAYBE he'll help ignite one or two of the veterans, as they were a major part of the Oilers victory over the Hawks in November.

Beneath, between and behind there are some in house options for the Oilers. They've stopped plaiyng a clearly frail Ryan Whitney and the Hartikainen recall might be the start of something we'll be telling stories about years from now: the day our beloved Finland gifted our Oilers with another wonderful player.

We could use a Phil Russell too.

RE Revisited

2012-01-01T10:14:00.000-07:00

Back in the summer I wrote several posts attempting to peg "reasonable" for this edition of the Edmonton Oilers. Let's have a look and see how things are progressing.

Going into year 2 of his Oilers coaching career, we expected coach Tom Renney to line match more and to have more bullets every night. I estimated a solid improvement in GF/GA:

2010-11 actual: 193-269 (-76 goal diff)
2011-12 my projection: 223-247 (-24 goal diff)
2011-12 current: 100-104 (-4 goal diff)
2011-12 projected: 222-230 (-8 projected)

So the overall goals for target I placed on the team remains reasonable, and the goaltending is better than reasonable. Seems fair, right? The 8-2-2 start and the Hawks blowout skewed things but they were part of the first half. Oilers are on pact to have a much improved season based on the first 37 games. They may finish in the lottery but another 37 games like this should also be proof of real improvement season over season.

THE FORWARDS

Jordan Eberle 37, 16-23-39 (proj: 82, 22-30-52) Eberle is blowing the projection out of the water. Seriously, this kid is sensational. He's one (of several) who are kicking reasonable's ass.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 37, 13-22-35 (proj: 63, 11-23-34) He's actually passed his projection before the halfway point of the season. RNH is slowing currently but clearly this is a monster rookie season and he's a strong Calder candidate. His PP work is stunning, like the first time you heard Exile on Main Street.
Ryan Smyth 37, 14-16-30 (proj: 70, 18-19-37) I didn't think he'd get much PP time (he's 3-3-6) but even considering that Smyth has been quality in the first half. I can't recall the last trade that benefited the Oilers this heavily but would guess it was Pronger arrival. Well above expectations.
Taylor Hall 29, 10-14-24 (proj: 70, 32-28-60) Hall is off his projection but should clear 50 points if he continues at this scoring rate. The number of sorties that have finished with posts and crossbars tells us lady luck should bless him in the second half.
Shawn Horcoff 37, 8-13-21 (proj: 62, 13-18-31) Playing a prominent PP role was something I didn't think he'd do (Gagner has been demoted) and that PP time (4-4-8) makes his season beyond what I'd estimated. One of the actual NHL players on the roster.
Ryan Jones 37, 12-7-19 (proj: 64, 5-11-16) Passed his projection with ease and has 9 EV goals already. I don't know how badly he's hurt, but Ryan Jones has made a believer out of me this season. Sold, solid year.
Sam Gagner 30, 4-11-15 (proj: 70, 15-35-50) Injuries and changing role have impacted his season, but there's a lot to like here. He's rescued his 5x5 numbers and is having a good run here. I don't know how much longer he'll be on the club, but wish him useful linemates for 2012.
Ales Hemsky 24, 3-8-11 (proj: 57, 17-37-54) God I'm going to miss him. I may cry. He's been like Red was to Andy Dufresne all these years--a friend in deed. Without his wonderful creativity I don't know how we would have survived. I hope he gets traded to Detroit and shoves it up everyone's ass for a decade. Lagging numbers due to injury and lack of PP time.
Eric Belanger 37, 1-9-10 (proj: 68, 13-23-36) He's off offensively which is strange because he's the new Toby Petersen on the PP. I would suggest this has been a very disappointing first half, but the Oilers should stay the course with him. Belanger has been a strong player for years, the Oilers need to solve this riddle.
Lennart Petrell 30, 3-3-6 (proj: 10, 1-1-2) On pace for his projection, but I estimated he'd be in the minors by now. I love Finns, but by Corsi and by number he's not getting it done despite reaching reasonable.
Ben Eager 26, 2-2-4 (proj: 69, 8-8-16) Slightly off reasonable projection, but the real concern is that Eager is not displaying the discipline required to own an NHL job. I expect coach Renney will screw with his playing time--which is fine he's playing too much--but as with Belanger I believe Eager can fill a role on a Renney team.
Anton Lander 33, 1-2-3 (proj: 16, 1-3-4) I'm astounded he's still here. Seriously. What development handbook suggests this?
Magnus Paajarvi 25, 0-3-3 (proj: 82, 20-20-40) Clearly off the rails, I'm going to blame the coach slightly more than the player on this one but the real item is getting him back to last season's levels. Suspect he'll get top 6 minutes when Hemsky is flushed.
Darcy Hordichuk 16, 0-1-1 (proj: 44, 0-3-3) Unlike many others who can't stand his performance, I'm fine with Hordichuk. He plays 4 minutes a night, the coach pays a massive price when he's on but is clearly smart enough to play him sparingly. The late third period shifts of tie games aren't his fault and he's a much better player than Steve MacIntyre.
Ryan O'Marra 3, 0-1-1 (proj: none) I didn't have him playing in the NHL this season. Good on him, maybe he'll get a recall if and when the Lander experiment ends.
Linus Omark, 5, 0-0-0 (proj: 70, 13-27-40) This is where the Tambellin-Renney team lost me. I can't defend an NHL team sending this guy out and keeping Lander, Hordichuk, Eager and Petrell. Mind-numbing.

Overall, this team has performed about as well as projected offensively and were superior defensively. Will they have an 8-2-2 run in the second half? So far, this team has shown marked improvement over last season. The big concern for me is the number of kids who are getting left behind, specifically Paajarvi and Omark. You're going to lose players along the way, but not this way. The Oilers need to put these young men in a position to succeed, especially in the second half when winning isn't job one.

I've decided to take a different route with the G & D, they'll be along in the next few hours or days.

G37 Oilers at Islanders

2011-12-31T08:25:00.001-07:00

The New York Islanders of the Torrey-Arbour era were formidable. Quality, depth, skill and a massive mean streak, the club had impact players who were complemented by a large group of role players. Although Bill Torrey didn't invent the trade deadline, he famously used it to put his team over the top in 1980.

It didn't take a long time for the Islanders to win. Their first draft picks (expansion and amateur) came in 1972 and they won their first Stanley in 1980. Nine seasons. It'll be six seasons since 2006 summer for the Oilers at the end of this campaign.

Islanders had 12 wins in their first season and 19 the next--that was the season they hired Al Arbour. 33 wins in year three and then 42, 47, 48, 51 and then 39 in the season the Islanders won their first Stanley.

Bill Torrey, Al Arbour and a bunch of hockey men with names like Gerry Ehman and Earl Ingarfield quickly became one of the "have" teams at the draft table during the 1970s. Montreal, Boston, Toronto, Buffalo, Philadelphia and the Islanders had better scouting and there was no central scouting bureau at the time.

1972: Billy Harris, Bob Nystrom, Garry Howatt, Lorne Henning, Richard Brodeur
1973: Denis Potvin, Dave Lewis, Bob Lorimer, Lorne Henning
1974: Bryan Trottier, Clark Gillies, Dave Langevin, Stefan Persson

Plus they were always buying a Chico Resch here or trading two old bolts for Bob Bourne. They collected talent and inserted said talent when ready. Some of those kids came right to the NHL, and others--mostly defensemen--came along a few years after they were drafted. The universal draft made eligible 20-year old kids through 1973 and the 1974 draft allowed one underager per team (said player had to be drafted in round one or two, Trottier was the Isles choice).
The key elements to the success of the Islanders came from Oakland, Charles Finley and the broken down Seals. Brad Kurtzberg wrote a book on the Seals called (aptly) Shorthanded, and it includes this item on Torrey's dealings with the Seals owner:

Bill Torrey and the people he knew built a dynasty on Long Island, but it could just as easily have been put together in Oakland. Does anyone seriously believe Bill Torrey--the man who walked the streets of Montreal for an hour before the 1973 draft with Sam Pollock alongside trying to talk him out of Denis Potvin--would have traded the pick that became Guy Lafleur?

Both the Oilers and Islanders are drafting well, both have outstanding prospects in all areas of their farm system and a few at the NHL level. The key comes in taking those talents and marrying them to veteran players who can help them develop and win by mentoring them.

In a very real way, we don't have to wonder about Steve Tambellini and Garth Snow, we already have the answer. Islander and Oiler fans are waiting on the ownership to move on to the next phase. In Edmonton, I believe Stu MacGregor has done a fine job--it's on display in Edmonton with the Oilers, in Calgary and Edmonton at the WJ's, in Medicine Hat with the Tigers and in OKC.

The Oilers have their lottery talents, it's the Chico Resch's and Eddie Westfall's they need to add, their Gerry Hart's and Billy Smith's.

Steve Tambellini believes the Oilers have the pieces in place to make a playoff run. That isn't the question I'm asking. The question is what does Daryl Katz believe? How long is he willing to watch his lottery kids play for a team that's driving in the ditch?
We wait.
--

Nation Radio's New Year's eve show hits Team 1260 at noon today. You can email questions to nationradio@theteam1260.com or drop them off here in the comments section. You can also check @itsnationradio or @lowetide_ on twitter and I welcome your questions and comments.

Jonathan Willis will be on the show for the entire first hour. Jon has a mountain of information on the world juniors, advanced stats as they pertain to this year's edition of the Oilers and the NHL in general.
Scott Taylor from Jets Nation. There's a story brewing here and it involves Winnipeg pushing Toronto out of the playoffs. Scott will give us the Jets view and we'll talk WJ's.
Pension Plan Puppets have several smart people who monitor the Leafs and one of them will join me today. We'll talk about the rocky relationship the fanbase has with their goalies and also discuss the importance of the numbers 18-14-5.

Hope you can tune in. We'll also be discussing cool ways to bring in the New Year, so pass along your suggestions.

The Lesson of Corey Potter

2011-12-30T08:46:00.000-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers have some depth issues on defense. That isn't news, hell the summer of 2006 was a long time ago. I'm wondering about so many young defenders on the current 6. Smid-Gilbert is a veteran duo, and after that it's a lot of inexperience (Peckham, Petry and Teubert) and minor league experience. I'm wondering if it might be an idea to grab another AHL veteran.

In last night's game a Colten Teubert pinch was followed by a Wild goal. Now I'm not blaming the kid, every defenseman learns on the job and the Oilers are asking him to play in the NHL sometimes this season.

However, I think there's some evidence that another Corey Potter-type might benefit the big league club more than another flat out rookie like Teubert.

Corey Potter's PDO (966) is the lowest on the team and his SP is also the worst (.895) on the current Oilers team. Meanwhile his Corsi Rel is the best on the club--all of this is among defenseman and behind the net supplies the info here. Gabe also tells us Potter is facing mid-level competition overall.

I'm not saying the minor league defender is the solution long term, but last night the Oilers had some things going and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on some really fixable sorties.

Good AHL defensemen have value, we know this because the game's history tells us so. Should the Oilers trade for a minor league veteran--another Corey Potter--even if the cost is someone like Theo Peckham? I think it's worth considering.

Hand Jive

2011-12-30T06:44:00.000-07:00

Every once in awhile there's a Tony Hand story to remind us of the legend. Last time he got a lot of news was three years ago when Hand was approaching 4,000 career points (!!!!!!!!) at the age of 42. The British Hockey League (it's been called all kinds of things) has improved over the years, but Hand remained at the top of the scoring charts well into his 30s.

Hand is from Edinburgh, and his career story is about two things: legit hockey talent in an unusual spot and a touching loyalty to his homeland. NHL teams were calling 25 years ago, but his heart belonged to the Murrayfield Racers of the BHL. I think there's a movie there, and his book must be a delight to read.

Anyway, Hand is miles past 40 now and is getting some recognition as a coach. He has been appointed the coach of the British team and will "lead GB at the 2012 World Championship (Division 1A) in Slovenia and also the tournaments in 2013, 2014 and 2015."

This coaching gig hasn't slowed down his playing career. Hand is currently player-coach of the Manchester Phoenix of the English Premier League. Last year he scored about 2.5 points a game, and he's off the pace this season. Hand has only 22 points in 15 games. :-)

Tony Hand's career stats are here. Oilers drafted him in 1986.

G36 Oilers at Wild

2011-12-29T06:44:00.000-07:00

Small victories are big steps. The Edmonton Oilers have some maturation on defense and youngsters learning on the job in Edmonton and in Oklahoma. As with all of these things, you never know about specific players but (as they say) if you throw enough on the wall some will stick.

The Oilers fanbase would have loved Jim Dorey. Seriously. He played the game in black and white with red rising every time his skates cut through the ice. The great thing about the olden days was if the game sucked or the home team was horrible, a good bench clearing brawl could make things more interesting.

One of those might be fun, right? Theo runs over some Minnesota pepperpot and it's game on. That doesn't happen anymore because the actual players don't fight and the fights that do happen are pretty much booked in advance.
--

The development of the blue continues tonight, with all of Petry, Peckham, Teubert and Potter trying to grab the rope and climb. Oilers are going to enter the summer with an uncertain depth chart that has Ladislav Smid, Tom Gilbert and Ryan Whitney (when healthy) as actual NHL players. Steve Tambellini did find Potter, but Tom Renney's memory banks get a big assist on the goal. I don't know that any of the men trying to establish themselves can be counted on next year in a major role, but would guess that Jeff Petry is the closest among the kids.
--

Ales Hemsky is getting a lot of attention lately. Matty has an article up about him and there seems to be blood in the water. Every time you read "Ales Hemsky" lately the words "left practice early" are sure to follow. It's become quite an item, but the smart bet is to ignore the gossip and get 83 straightened around and scoring. A one or two year deal seems wise, I wonder if the Oilers are still thinking about it or if it's all about the trade.
Matty does say that the Oilers would be looking for a defenseman in return, meaning Nashville is in the mix along with (as Jim Matheson mentioned) Detroit and Los Angeles. Maybe this is the year they get Voynov from the coast.
--

I don't have much to say about the game tonight. Hope the kids do something special and no one gets hurt. Two points would be very good, but don't count on it. Sometimes it is best to have the faith of a child and to look for small victories. Remember that meeting a long time ago where the season ticket base told the Oilers to fix it, get it right?

If they knew then what they know now, would they say that same thing?
--

Keep those reports coming on the WJ kids. Interesting insight on the group, you can read the comments section over the last few days or stay tuned and I'll have a post offering your words on them around the end of the round robin.

Teubert Recalled, other Barons Waiting for Same

2011-12-28T08:40:00.001-07:00

The OKC Barons lost last night, but there is good news on the pro prospect front. Colten Teubert has been called up by the Oilers and he might have some company based on improved health and solid performances.

Last night in the middle of the first period, two young Barons rang shots off the post. Magnus Paajarvi--in OKC to find his confidence and some swagger--hit iron and then Teemu Hartikainen--back after missing 10 games--did the same. "We had great chances, it's just one of those things that happens" said head coach Todd Nelson.

Phil Cornet also returned to action, he was the hottest shooter in the territory when injured, and veteran Josh Green scored a goal in his first game back (from suspension and illness) after being parked for 5.

We know from what Gabe Desjardins' taught us that about 45% of AHL offense should come with the player should he make the NHL. Here are the AHL numbers for the Oilers various prospects (I'm including Kirill Tulupov because I think it's only a matter of time before they add him to the 50 man list).

Phil Cornet (25, 15-3-18) forced his way into the conversation before injury.
Gilbert Brule (25, 8-10-18) has done everything asked but remains in OKC.
Teemu Hartikainen (20, 8-5-13) surely he's next to be called up.
Ryan O'Marra (28, 6-7-13) is +10 and having his best pro season.
Hunter Tremblay (30, 5-6-11) has been consistent if not spectacular.
Alex Plante (28, 1-10-11) earned a call up with fine play.
Chris VandeVelde (31, 3-7-10) lost in the flood a little this season.
Tanner House (28, 4-5-9) +10 and certainly has the confidence of the coach.
Tyler Pitlick (28, 4-5-9) has adjusted well to pro hockey, arrows pointing north.
Taylor Chorney (17, 3-5-8) is now an established tweener.
Curtis Hamilton (23, 2-5-7) a little behind Pitlick but a quality prospect.
Linus Omark (7, 1-6-7) remains a fine talent in search of an NHL coach who believes in him.
Colten Teubert (17, 2-4-6) has done more than anyone in OKC to impress the NHL staff this season.
Kirill Tulupov (17, 0-5-5) signed an AHL contract recently and I bet the Oilers will get him signed in the summer.
Antti Tyrvainen (11, 0-4-4) lost in the flood too but performs well when he plays based on what I've read.
Magnus Paajarvi (4, 0-1-1) looks good according to everyone, I imagine his speed scares the daylights out of AHL defensemen. They'll punish him plenty if he goes to the scoring zones, though and that's what he'll need to do in order to post crooked numbers.
Milan Kytnar (7, 0-1-1) back to Stockton and honestly it'll be hard to create a scenario for him next year that involves the Barons. Might be playing his final games in the organization ala Johan Motin earlier in the year.
Cameron Abney (2, 0-0-0) is on a timeline that isn't reflected in the boxcars. I have no idea how he's progressing as an enforcer.
Ryan Martindale (2, 0-0-0) in baseball they always say players who sit are "victims of a numbers game" and in this case that might be correct. We can't really be critical because he isn't getting the at-bats in OKC. His Stockton boxcars are coming along fine.

The Oilers have some issues at the big league level--injuries on the blue, a 4th line even the coach doesn't love--so callups for Hartikainen, Teubert and even O'Marra seem possible. As the season rolls along, we might see players like Pitlick and of course Paajarvi's return is only a matter of time.

(Last Chance for) Hearts of Stone

2011-12-27T07:35:00.001-07:00

As the reality of another lost season grips fans of the Edmonton Oilers, the time has come to talk of "next year": the draft, the men who offer hope and finally a defensive pairing worthy of the Oildrop.

I've long since given up on hoping for some kind of grand intervention by Oilers management for this season. Ryan Whitney's in real trouble, things are unlikely to end well. Alex Plante made "face plante" an unpleasant headline and Corey Potter is doing his best to show you why he was in the minors all those years.
Ladies and gentleman, I give you Ladislav Smid and Tom Gilbert (courtesy behind the net)

QUAL COMP

CORSI REL

Gilbert's signed through 2014, Smid is free a year earlier. When we get around to talking about next season--and I think we're there--Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid are actual NHL players.

That's two.

G35 Oilers at Canucks & WJ Day One

2011-12-26T05:42:00.003-07:00

The Oilers have faded in the NW standings, but remain one of three teams with a positive goal differential. A closer look reveals a lot of what the Oilers are about is the powerplay.

Oilers 11-12 are 59-65 at even strength, 28-23 on the PP and 4-3 on the PK. The powerplay has been outstanding at home--19 goals leads the league and the 24.4 home percentage is 2nd in the entire league (Canucks lead at home). The Oilers have the 18th best road PP by goal total and the 20th best by percentage.

The Oilers were walking on sunshine 10 games in, but they were also riding historic save percentages and a blueline that looked like it had enough to hold back the water most nights. Khabibulin and Potter and the kid were enormous advantages for Edmonton, but luck and injury and the law of averages saw a market correction.

Minnesota is fading but they are 12 points clear of Edmonton so won't be an issue for Oilers fans before the deadline. Vancouver has been the cock of the walk in this division for some time and an early season snooze is pretty much over, Edmonton won't see them again.

Calgary shows us what a team that wants to improve can do in the early part of the season to make changes, get better and still keep your first round draft pick. Blake Comeau came free of charge and they've added some interesting kids in support roles. I don't know that Edmonton will catch them again this season but it's a race worth watching as we roll along.

I think Edmonton's hopes for climbing out of the NW basement depend on Colorado. Like Edmonton they started strong but have faded since, and neither team is going to threaten anyone in a playoff series.

I hate to say it, but this road trip is probably it for the Oilers. If they can't stay with the Colorado's and the Calgary's, then we'll start to talk about the draft in early January.
Again.
--

Day One of the World Juniors sees Canada playing Finland. The Canadians usually win Gold whenever I'm worried about them and I'm definitely worried about them. It's also a little galling to know that the selection process has excluded Tyler Seguin and RNH in the last two WJ's. I know this is a 19-year old tournament, but maybe we should be watching the U18's instead--after all, most of the kids playing today are already drafted.

TSN schedule

Canada Finland 1pm Edmonton time on tsn.
Sweden Latvia 3:30 Edmonton time on tsn2 (Klefbom).
USA Denmark 6 Edmonton time on tsn2
Russia Switzerland 8:30 on tsn 2.

It's weird not having a Canadian or Finn Oiler prospect this season, but the four defensemen should keep us entertained. I'd like to get your opinion on the 4 kids during the tournament, just post whatever you see in the comments sections and I'll gather them all up and do a post at the end of the WJ's.

We'll call it our scouting junket. :-) I asked Corey Pronman from Hockey Prospectus on Nation Radio Saturday the following question: which of the four Oiler drafts has the best chance to be a productive NHL defenseman?

Answer: David Musil.

Merry Christmas

2011-12-25T06:54:00.002-07:00

It's early, a little before 7. Kids are asleep, my wife is snoring (don't tell her, she doesn't think she does it) and it's just the dog and me. We got the dog about a month ago from a nice family in Legal, it's a Shitzu/Pom we named "Ziggy" and she's the cutest kleenex box I've ever seen.

The kids think we got her for them, but the truth is that it's been a tough year for my wife. We lost her Dad in the summertime and it takes a long time to work through it. Hell, I lost my Dad in 1992 and it's still a thing for me so maybe we're not supposed to get over those things.

Anyway, we find ourselves happy and warm on Christmas morning, the kids are long past Lego and the Powerpuff Girls. We'll spend the day with classic rock (the Band, Stones, Neil, Who) and new games--including a rock trivia game my daughter is brilliant at already. I guess the Al Gore really is a help for today's youth.

I'm rambling. Merry Christmas, be good to each other. Have a little too much to drink, but hide the keys before you do. And if you have children my kid's age--my son graduates high school in the spring and the girl will one day rule the world--make good use of the entire day, grab an extra hug and a laugh or two. These precious "just us" Christmases last until about noon now--I wouldn't have it any other way.
God Bless, Merry Christmas.

There Are Four Lights!

2011-12-24T09:25:00.001-07:00

The World Juniors take center stage beginning on Boxing Day, and Oiler fans are going to have to check the schedule and programs. There are four Oiler blue to keep an eye on.

Oscar Klebom got a look at things and "talked to Tambellini" while playing a solid game for Sweden against the Canadians last night. Klefbom looked good to me, he was on what looked like the third pairing and was part of the PK rotation. I noticed he seemed to get more shifts as the game wore on and Klefbom was out on the ice during the final minute of play.
He's a rangy kid, I saw him cheat for offense only once and in fact he re-set for position several times (it looked like he was going against his instincts on 50/50 puck pursuits, etc). Hard to tell by one game but he's a bigger kid and mobile.
--

The four lights are:

Oscar Klefbom, #6 for team Sweden.
Martin Marincin, #21 for team Slovakia
Martin Gernat, #25 for team team Slovakia.
David Musil, #6 for team Czech Republic.

I'm not an expert on any of this stuff, but do talk to people who spend a lot of time on the WJ. Many are picking team Russia for the win, some have Canada as low as third. If you bet every year on Canada either winning or losing the gold medal game there would be little to worry over.

I do think the roster selection process is open to question. Some good players were sent home and the team looks weak in transition and has question marks down the middle.

Nation Radio hits the airwaves at noon Edmonton time on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:

Peter Loubardias from Future Considerations and other parts of the hockey world. Peter is to junior hockey as the internet is to everything else: an exceptional source and a must read.
Jason Gregor from the Jason Gregor show. I'll ask him about his fundraising leading up to Christmas and we'll discuss the Oilers and what happens from here through the trade deadline.
Kent Wilson from Flames Nation. Kent will give us the latest on a very nice run by the Flames and we'll discuss Iginla's march toward goal number 500.
Corey Pronman from Hockey Prospectus. Corey will give us the inside scoop on the draft eligibles at this year's World Juniors.
Aaron Vickers from Future Considerations. I'll ask him to give us an overview of the tournament and the favorites to play in the gold medal game.

There are also some irons in the water for other guests as we set the stage for this year's WJ's. Please feel free to email nationradio@theteam1260.com or you can post in the comments section below. I also check ItsNationRadio and I'm at Lowetide_ as well.

Merry Christmas. I want to wish you and your family the best of the season.

RNH and his Rookie Season

2011-12-23T16:52:00.000-07:00

Lots of talk on the Al Gore lately about RNH and his even strength and road numbers. Before we get too far into this, let's not start a witch hunt. NO ONE is suggesting he isn't an outstanding player, no one is implying he isn't the Calder favorite. Let's look at the issue of road points and even strength points.

Even strength points

RNH is killing it on the powerplay--I don't know if an Oiler rookie has ever impacted 5x4 in this way--but at even strength things have been less impressive. I thought it might be an idea to compare rookies over the past few seasons to RNH's rookie even strength totals.

Desjardins 5x5/60

Andrew Cogliano 07-08: 2.28
RNH 11-12 2.23
Sam Gagner 07-08 1.96
Jordan Eberle 10-11 1.79
Taylor Hall 10-11 1.78
Magnus Paajariv 10-11 1.36

Looks pretty good by this metric, Cogliano had a quality rookie season and of course the three kids last year showed signs of things to come. Now, we're not looking at difficulty of minutes here because it's tough to compare across seasons. Suffice to say that the Hall-Eberle duo faced tougher opposition that the rest of the kids on this list (they were paired with the veteran Horcoff a year ago).

Desjardins 5x5/60 for recent F Calder winners (courtesy Desjardins as always)

Jeff Skinner 10-11 2.49
Patrick Kane 07-08 2.32
RNH 11-12: 2.23

RNH is facing 2nd level opposition according to Gabe

Which is about where Kane was among Chicago's forwards in his rookie season

Now I know we're not supposed to compare across teams, but it does show that RNH's soft parade opposition from early in the season has been replaced by some "Zetterberg" nights as NHL coaching staffs have adjusted their sights.

Overall, I'd suggest the young man has done pretty well even considering he's had terrific linemates. I don't know that he's going to win the Calder if he continues on this pace, but the 5x4 numbers have to be considered as well.

Is it fair to call RNH an average offensive rookie at 5x5 and a special one via 5x4?
--

Home/Road

RNH

Home: 18, 8-17-25 1.39ppg
Away: 16, 5-4-9 .563

Taylor Hall (rookie season)

Home: 35, 10-9-19 .543ppg
Away: 30, 12-11-23 .767

Jordan Eberle (rookie season)

Home: 35, 11-11-22 .629ppg
Away: 34, 7-14-21 .618

Jeff Skinner (rookie season)

Home: 41, 16-19-35 .854ppg
Away: 41, 15-13-28 .683

Patrick Kane (rookie season)

Home: 41, 15-36-51 1.24ppg
Away: 41, 6-15-21 .512

Based on those numbers, Kane would look to have had a similar path as a rookie. The following season he scored 2 more points on the road than at home, so it would appear to be something that one can overcome.

My own guess is that the home/road thing has a lot to do with the kids being the target of opposition teams and that means some tough sledding on the road. Breaking up the line might help, and coach Renney has done that on the road. As RNH gets older, one would also expect to see him be more effective in all areas and one of them might be splits.

The good thing is that he's tracking well as a young NHL player, miles better than we had any right to expect as fans. I don't think it's possible to find a really negative thing to say about the kid.

He's golden, touched by God.

Parlez-vous français ?

2011-12-23T08:01:00.002-07:00

This is Yvan Cournoyer. I hated the Habs when I was a kid--I say hated but that almost doesn't do it justice. Montreal in those days represented Lex Luthor to my beloved Bruins. However, Cournoyer was one of the guys you just had to tip your hat to, because he was electric.

I think Bure would be a modern day comp, but honestly #12 hasn't been seen before or since. One thing about the Montreal Canadiens that was true in my youth--the annual story of the season was always either Habs Win! or Habs don't win!

They were, for lack of a better name, the hockey Yankees.

One thing I rarely do on this blog is discuss politics. Mostly because hockey and women are more interesting, but also because it's a subject that can derail the topic at hand quicker than Lindsay Lohan can, well, pick something.

The French language was always an issue for Montreal fans. Al MacNeil was basically fired after winning the '71 Staney, because he'd benched Henri Richard during the playoffs. Little or no mention about John Ferguson's being pushed to the background, but the Richard issue got MacNeil a job with the Nova Scotia Vayageurs and Scotty Bowman (who could speak French) the best job in hockey.

The French language issue remains, but the Habs are handling it differently. Worse. Badly. Sam Pollock somehow managed to replace his Stanley-winning coach with another guy who had an English last name and not skip a beat, and if you try to tell me the political climate was less edgy then I'll call you a liar.

This is really about one thing: winning. Habs fans should stop embarrassing themselves with vicious verbal toward their English speaking coach and beg the God they pray to for the day when their French speaking GM gets the gaspipe.

In hockey, politics changes with W's. Even in Quebec province.

G34 Wild at Oilers

2011-12-22T07:48:00.000-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers have been hitting line drives lately, but they've been loud outs instead of doubles into the gap. The Minnesota Wild are "death to fun" and are experiencing a market correction. This isn't exactly "guaranteed win night" but Edmonton has a good chance should they play with the kind of effort we saw the last two games.

Coach Renney has shuffled the lines again. Jason Gregor reported that Anton Lander was on the 3rd line with Gagner and Jones yesterday in practice. I do like the look of the top two lines and honestly Belanger has been such a disappointment maybe this is a good idea. I'd still rather see Lander spend the second half in the AHL if he can't post crooked numbers.

I don't make predictions because I suck at them. However, tonight has a lot of good arrows for the Oilers. They seemed suitably pissed at their loss against Detroit, the powerplay should be good for a goal and Minnesota looks as good as their uniform.

I'm not calling a victory. However, it should be a game we can enjoy watching, and lord knows the Minnesota Wild owe us one of those. These are not your Mother's Minnesota Wild, if your mother was Jacques Lemaire.

Maybe a new day dawns. YEO!

Room Service

2011-12-21T17:10:00.000-07:00

I got into an interesting conversation today with a friend. The discussion surrounded what the Oilers might want in return for Ales Hemsky. I've operated under the assumption that Hemsky leaving would mean the Oilers getting an established defender in return.

My buddy suggests the Oilers badly need a power forward, or at least a forward with size to add a physical element to the skill lines.

What say you? A solid NHL defender or a physical policemen to ride shotgun for RNH, Hall and or Eberle?

Maggie May

2011-12-21T07:31:00.002-07:00

We got into a good conversation yesterday about Magnus Paajarvi, so I thought it might be a good idea to get the math out there and discuss this full on.

Magnus Paajarvi has some things in common with this fellow, Juha Widing. Widing was born in Uleaborg, Finland to Swedish parents; MPS was born in Sweden to SWE-FIN parents. Widing had several strong seasons in the NHL but faded young and overall would be considered a disappointment based on his initial promise.

Some may feel Paajarvi is headed in the same direction. I think it's too soon to tell. Let's see what math tells us.

Magnus Pääjärvi 10-11

5x5 points per 60: 1.36 (8th among regular forwards)
5x4 points per 60: 3.45 (6th among regular forwards)
Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
Corsi Rel: 3.2 (7th best among regular forwards)
Zone Start: 51.6% (5th easiest among regular forwards)
Zone Finish: 52.4% (4th best among regular forwards)
Shots on goal/percentage: 180/8.3% (8th among F's>100 shots)
Boxcars: 80gp, 15-19-34
Plus Minus: -13

So, as a teenage rookie Paajarvi didn't get the push enjoyed by the two other kids (understandably) until injuries started to impact the roster. It was a solid rookie year, boxcars are fine and he does well in Corsi Rel. Now he certainly had the push in zone starts and his shooting percentage is no screaming hell, but on the other hand he wasn't jumping over the boards with 99 and Kurri.

Magnus Pääjärvi 11-12

5x5 points per 60: 0.67 (13th among regular forwards)
5x4 points per 60: nil
Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
Corsi Rel: 8.11(3rd best among regular forwards)
Zone Start: 50.9% (8th easiest among regular forwards)
Zone Finish: 55.0% (4th best among regular forwards)
Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots, no goals
Boxcars: 25gp,0-3-3 -2
Plus Minus: -2

These numbers for MP are a little misleading. He has three even strength points in 273 even strength minutes, meaning that he'd be on par with last year at six even strength points. I do think the demotion was warranted and the young man clearly has the right attitude based on reports.

Paajarvi has not played with the best possible linemates but he also failed to create miles of chances this season. I think it is extremely premature to suggest he is a failed prospect and believe the time in OKC is a great opportunity for him. No hurries returning, and let's remember there were some nice things on his resume during his season and a bit in the NHL.

However, let's frame the issue propely. Paajarvi's Oilers are well below average at evens (NHL average at even strength so far this year is 68 goals; Oilers have 59) and the young man wasn't part of the PP solution. Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. He's wide by three points, and considering luck and linemates I'm willing to believe this is a lot about circumstance.

Magnum PS Headlines Baron Roster

2011-12-20T17:00:00.000-07:00

The Oilers have a couple of days off, but the OKC Barons head into the break with a game in Charlotte this evening. Magnus Paajarvi will play in his 3rd AHL game.

It's been tough to get a read on the OKC story this season. Injuries have had a major impact on the individual players, so the boxcars are tough to read. With the game tonight OKC will take a Christmas break, so I thought it might be an idea to give a very quick rundown on some of the roster. We've seen the interesting defensemen in Edmonton, here's the story on the Baron forwards.

Linus Omark 7, 1-6-7 +2 before injury and he hasn't been back in some time. Omark started the season in Edmonton and should be back in the NHL at some point this season.
Magnus Paajarvi 2, 0-0-0 E scored a beauty shootout goal and has been saying all of the right things about being demoted. I expect he'll get a recall when the organization moves Hemsky or if there's an injury (Gagner is banged up, so maybe he gets the call tomorrow).
Phil Cornet 24, 15-3-18 +6 Cornet was the surprise of the fall in OKC, scoring goals on almost every shot until he eventually led the league in goals. An injury has him shelved but this is a player to watch in the second half.
Gilbert Brule 24, 8-9-17 -3 Brule has been healthy and there's no sign of recall. My theory is that he's paying for past sins--there were times last season when the big league team badly needed him and Brule was unavailable. I could be wrong, but he's playing well and no one talks about him at all.
Teemu Hartikainen 19, 8-5-13 +1 There are rumors that Hartikainen is about to return, I could see him getting some NHL time before the end of this season--certainly after the deadline.
Tanner House 26, 4-5-9 +8 He's certainly playing regularly and has posted some offense this season. A center with a defensive reputation could end up being a recall should Lander get sent down.
Tyler Pitlick 27, 4-5-9 -9 He's been up and down the lineup but appears to be playing quite a bit at center. Jim Byers has mentioned several times during his ON interviews that Pitlick brings a physical element. I am hoping he arrives at the big league level in time for Ryan Smyth to show him the ropes.
Curtis Hamilton 22, 2-5-7 E Hamilton has certainly had fewer opportunities than Pitlick but appears to be earning more looks lately. Scored a goal in the team's last game on a nice shot.

Game starts soon, you can usually grab the radio from the AHL's site.

Sale On Sail On, Sailor

2011-12-20T07:17:00.000-07:00

Every week or so, other NHL teams are extending their soon-to-be free agents and restricted free agents. Recent examples include David Krejci in Boston, Victor Hedman in Tampa, Niklas Kronwall in Detroit and Braydon Coburn in Philly.

The Edmonton Oilers have all kinds of things to do in the next few months. I imagine one of them will be to evaluate their soon-to-be free agents and offload those who aren't in the long range plans.

UFA

Ales Hemsky: I think he's gone. My sincere wish is that they sign him to a 2-year deal at reasonable dollars and then make a decision the summer RNH goes super nova (should that happen) at the bank.
Ryan Smyth: One assumes after trading himself Smyth will also negotiate with himself. I can't imagine the eruption that would take place if the Oilers botch a Smyth re-signing, and trading 94 would be a violation of the management-fan Geneva conventions.
Lennart Petrell: Love the Finns but he's gotta go. Petrell has been owned 5x5 according to our friend Corsi and the organization should have enough penalty-killers by next fall. I doubt he has any actual trade value at this time.
Darcy Hordichuk: I'm fine with bringing him back. I don't think the Oilers need this player type, especially when they have an effective powerplay--and that looks possible if RNH is for real with the man advantage. However, coach Renney ran two of them in NYC and has two in Edmonton, so it's better to have a 4 minute a night guy than someone like Jacques who the coach likes enough to play a lot. Hordichuk has no deadline value.
Andy Sutton: I'm undecided about him. Sutton does some good things but his injuries and suspensions have made him less reliable. On a team that already has issues with player availability among veterans, I'd pass on the opportunity. Sutton is exactly the kind of player teams trade for at the deadline, his value would probably be a mid-round pick.
Corey Potter: I like him despite the falloff in performance. I can certainly see him among the top 6 next season even with an upgrade for the Whitney pairing. Potter should have decent value at the deadline should the Oilers choose to deal him.

Oilers also have three minor league UFA's in Yann Danis, Ryan Keller and Josh Green.

RFA

Sam Gagner: I know he's a divisive player among Oiler fans, but my vote is to sign him to a contract that suggests he's part of the future in Edmonton. I think the decision to trade him is unlikely to occur at this year's deadline.
Cam Barker: I don't think he's shown enough to warrant another contract. He can't have any trade value, I think that's clear.
Theo Peckham: He's a tough call, but they've invested this much time and Peckham has improved as a PK defender. If they decide to hurry up the process on the blue, perhaps he's a guy they offload but otherwise signing him is the play. I do think Peckham has some trade value.
Jeff Petry: Developing player who has a nice range of skills. Oilers need him to climb this depth chart as soon as possible. Trading him would be insane, this is what they need to add.
Devan Dubnyk: I think they should sign him with the idea that he's the starter of the future. Trade value would be fluid, extremely unlikely to be dealt.
Linus Omark: Sign him and plan for him to be a regular in 12-13. This is a player I can see being traded at the deadline or over the summer.

Gilbert Brule, Alex Plante, Chris VandeVelde, Taylor Chorney, Ryan O'Marra, Hunter Tremblay and Milan Kytnar are also RFA. Among the players listed here, I'd say Hemsky and Sutton are the best bets to go as we approach the deadline.

G33 Red Wings at Oilers

2011-12-19T06:59:00.000-07:00

A great defenseman is like a warm blanket on a cold winter's morning. Opposition sorties dissolve like sugar in coffee, alka-seltzer in water. The puck is moved up expertly and the shot gets through on the powerplay. Calm feet. Big brains. Complete skill set. A great NHL defenseman is a very valuable item.

The photo shows the expansion Buffalo Sabres against the veteran Red Wings. This was 40 years ago. Delvecchio is the captain for Detroit, Howe is crashing the net, Buffalo's #7 is Floyd Smith and #3 is I believe Tracy Pratt. This scene has been repeated thousands of times over since this photo, and NHL teams are still looking for defensemen.

I thought it might be interesting to compare the Wings and how they use defenders with how coach Renney is rolling them out this season.

It's 5x5 Rel Corsi but there's also the TOI totals and this is all players with 5 or more games. That's pretty consistent delivery of the top 6 there, with Lidstrom and Ian White getting the most work and delivering a solid year. Lidstrom is a freak, please Baby Jesus let one of these Oiler kids be half the player.

This is Qual Comp and Qual team and there's some interesting stuff here. By the way, all stats here courtesy Gabe Desjardins as always. White and Lidstrom are facing the toughes and then the veteran tandem of Kronwall and Stuart get the secondary toughs. I've seen quite a few games this season and that top 4D are very consistent and of course the wealth of veteran forwards helps out every shift.

Detroit had some issues over the summer with defensemen, and it's interesting to see how they solved those issues.

First thing we notice is that the Wings defenders have been healthy. Again this is >5gp and we see the Smid-Gilbert pairing at the top and Potter still shining after that brilliant start. Now, I know injuries are random things but the Oilers knew Ryan Whitney would be an issue and chose to solve their D problems with Barker and Suttin. Andy Sutton has been a pleasant surprise, but I think we knew Cam Barker's 5x5 performance would be outside the realm of "delivering consistent defensive play." A quick note on Jeff Petry--he does pretty well here.

This is about what we might expect, right? Smid and Gilbert followed by the dog's breakfast and Barker is behind the youngsters and the old guys. Only Colten Teubert is facing softer music.
--

I think that's the measurement we should employ, comparing the Oiler blue to a real, bona fide NHL top 6. How many Oiler defensemen could go to Detroit's training camp next season with a strong chance to play every night?

And another thing: is Ian White this good or does Lidstrom help that much even at his age? And if White is a better option than Barker--and he is--did Edmonton look into spending the extra money on White? How would they handle Petry? Why are their guys healthy? Would Smid-Gilbert improve Detroit? Where would they slot on the depth chart?

I don't remember the last time Detroit had fewer than 4 actual NHL defensemen. Probably in the days of Gary Bergman. I'm stretching it, but not by much.

Winter 2011 Top 20 Prospects

2011-12-18T19:00:00.001-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers are brimming with prospects. The last two #1 prospects (Hall and RNH) are tracking well and another graduate (Jordan Eberle) has the tools to run with that pack.

The rest of this year's group is all about the blue.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will graduate the list later in the season. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but the young man looks very good.
Anton Lander's resume is rather unique because of the "defense first" aspect of it. The scouting report suggests a rather extreme defensive center along the lines of Doug Jarvis. He too is on track to graduate by summer.
Oscar Klefbom is playing in the SEL and increasing his playing time as the year wears on. His scouting report suggests a wide range of skills (size, he can move, creative and a sublime passer) that represents the most complete defender in the system.
Teemu Hartikainen took a little time to adjust to AHL hockey a year ago, but then came on strong and delivered a solid season (plus an impressive callup). He pushed for NHL employment during the pre-season before giving way to an impressive depth chart. Still, I believe his name would have been called by the Oilers if not for the injury that has sidelined him these last weeks. Still a strong prospect for the Oilers.
Martin Marincin continues his development in the WHL and reports have him making progress despite the boxcars. Marincin is a tall, thin defender who needs to fill out but also displays a nice range of skills and a definite nasty streak.
Tyler Bunz was a depth draft pick but has been building a fine resume since he was selected by the Oilers. He did not make the Canadian WJ team but is progressing in the WHL and is the best goalie prospect in the system at this time.
Martin Gernat is the third of the "wide range" defenders and the longest shot based on draft pedigree. A rangy kid, he does have a physical element to his game but his calling card is a tendency to cheat for offense. Interesting prospsect.
Curtis Hamilton turned pro this fall and has been challenged by the jump from junior to the AHL. The points aren't coming as quickly as they did a year ago, but he did score a goal against Charlotte tonight and is getting more playing time.
Tyler Pitlick is the highest ranked "physical forward" in the system and has shown some signs of being able to deliver offensively. As with Hamilton, the adjustment from junior to the AHL is a difficult process and Pitlick's numbers through December 18 (26, 4-5-9) are somewhat similar to Teemu Hartikainen's at the same time one year ago (26, 7-4-11).
David Musil is a personal favorite because he's already composed and has an idea about how to defend. His issues--foot speed, offensive ability--are evident but the job he'll be required to do is already evident in his game. All he has to do is continue to develop and learn to defend at higher levels. A very safe prospect.
Colten Teubert has a big edge over the other stay-at-home types in that he'll audition much sooner and should he grab one of the jobs is likely to be established by the time the others come knocking. Ideally, he'll be a solid EV and PK defender who can give the Oilers toughness without taking stupid penalties. I think that last item might be his issue as we move along.
Olivier Roy has shown well in his first pro season with Stockton (ECHL). Goaltenders take forever so there's no hurry but he certainly appears to be able to handle AA shooters. Roy and Bunz are likely to have a similar audition to the one we saw between Dubnyk and Deslauriers over several seasons.
Tobias Rieder is an interesting prospect and has certainly done enough to get noticed in his 18-year old junior season. I like his resume because there's a range of skills there--all three disciplines--and he's certainly posting better numbers this year.
Jeremie Blain has some things going for him (he's right handed) and there's every chance I'm underrating his defensive ability on this list. We'll know more next season when he turns pro.
Brandon Davidson got sent back to junior and is taking it out on his opponents. A late start in organized hockey probably means this extra season is a reasonable solution to a tough situation (the Oilers had too many pro contracts).
Frans Tuohimaa was a surprise selection for some, but his numbers have improved year over year and he is certainly progressing based on the numbers. One thing I do agree about: this year's list lacks the depth of the 2010 group, but then again with all the graduations (I'll touch on that below) it is to be expected.
Dillon Simpson has some issues as a prospect but he's also the son of an NHL player and was one of the youngest players in his league a year ago. It is possible Simpson's decision to play NCAA hockey at 17 hurt his draft number, and that could benefit the Oilers.
Phil Cornet has not been trumpted as a top end prospect, but his scoring this season will force the Oilers to have a long look at him. 15 goals in a short time frame is a tough thing to do, especially in a league like the AHL. Cornet is currently injured.
Kyle Bigos is a big, strong, tough defender. Bigos' skills are perhaps under wraps in the NCAA and he might have a major impact physically when he turns pro.
Ryan Martindale rounds out the top 20, earning the honor on the strength of a quality junior career. Martindale hasn't had a chance to get untracked at the pro level, but he should get a chance to play regularly in the ECHL in the second half of the season.

#21-30 are here.

A few things:

At the top of the list, RNH is miles ahead of everyone else and I do think Lander's unique skill set makes him the 2nd best prospect. I have Klefom and Marincin above the other defenders and do believe Hartikainen is a strong prospect so he's inside the top 5.
The kids from 6-11 could be switched around and I don't think anyone should care much. We don't know enough about some and in other cases maybe we know enough to hedge our bets.
12-15 are kids who have some flaws but also possess some good arrows, plus they are progressing well enough to have more up than down arrows.
16-20 is once again somewhat random in that there was no strong reason to rank one player ahead of another.
21+ includes players who are trending up, down or treading water and guys we don't know enough about yet (Tremblay, House) but they're bubbling under and we're paying attention.

GRADS FROM SUMMER LIST: Jeff Petry
GRADS FROM WINTER LIST: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Devan Dubnyk, Liinus Omark, Theo Peckham, Taylor Chorney.

That list from last winter was one to remember. I enjoyed doing it, thanks for reading.

DO SOMETHING!

2011-12-18T07:05:00.001-07:00

It's not a fun picture this morning for the Edmonton Oilers. Although 15th in the west is a distant bell, they certainly have a nice shot at 13th before Christmas and could spend the back half of the season failing for Nail. On what planet is this acceptable?

The Oilers never make a significant change at this time of year. During the Kevin-Lowe-in-management era, Edmonton has made exactly one big December trade: in 2003 they cut the Comrie cord on December 16th, acquiring Jeff Woywitka and two draft picks (which Kevin Prendergast turned into Robbie Schremp and Danny Syvret).
In November of 2000, Lowe dealt Bill Guerin and the Oilers 2001 1st round pick (Boston selected Shaone Morrissonn) to Boston for Anson Carter and the Bruins 1st rounder (KP selected Ales Hemsky).

Edmonton Oilers fans awake today to the sounds of Sonny and Cher on the radio and a repeat of Groundhog Day. I don't know if this is the day we drive the truck off the cliff or the day we spend all of our efforts getting into Andie MacDowell's pants, but to say the bloom is off the rose is pure understatement.
Among the rational things the Oilers could do are the following:

Sit Teddy Peckman. The lesson I've learned watching Laddy Smid develop is that the old estimate of 200 NHL games for a defenseman to find his way can be more like 300. The old clutch and grab days are gone and Teddy's "gone fishing" plays are still there--and getting worse. You can't develop all of the NHL's defensemen but I think there's a player here. So I'd suggest a long spell in the pressbox. Six games, something like that.
Play Horcoff and Belanger at center. I understand moving Sam Gagner back to center, makes complete sense. However, there's no harm in running Belanger on a 4line and then PK duties. Hell the 4line is getting killed out there, they could use a veteran hand in the middle.
Stop shaking up the lines every night. Look, last night's top 2 lines were both good ideas, but let them play for awhile together. Gagner and Hemsky have had chem in the past and I defy anyone to find a player who Ryan Smyth can't work with out there.
Send down Anton Lander. We all agree this is a quality prospect, but some time in the AHL to find whatever offensive game he'll bring is a good idea. Right now that 4th line is good for one enima every third period. Anton Lander will be here a long time, let's no rush it.
Play the hell out of the kids. Why not? If you're going down in flames, at least get these players icetime and see what they can do. How High the Moon? Give them 20 minutes a night, especially at home.
Trade Nikolai Khabibulin. I'm not saying do it tomorrow, but if this team continues to slide then a January deal that sends the Russian away (say, TBay) to another NHL city should be worth something nice for the rebuild.
Decide if the club needs another coach for the next phase. Tom Renney's reputation is as a solid teacher and instructional coach, and a player's coach. Do the Oilers want him for another two years, or is it time to go out and get a new age coach? Mike Yeo wasn't famous and has a weird name, but the Wild are kicking out the jams. This is the time to decide, and if he is your guy perhaps someone who can help with line matching should be procured as an assistant. Coach Renney often has a mismatch out there.
Solve the Hemsky riddle. I don't think you could get 50 cents on the dollar for him right now, so whatever his deal Steve Tambellini has to sort this out quickly. Should the organization sign him to a shorter term deal, say 2 years? Or trade him at the deadline despite his reduced value? The rebuild can't afford a "Curtis Joseph" walk situation. They have to get something or sign the man.
Coach Renney must solve the games where the team shows up flat. I've started planning things outside Oiler games and pursue them based on the first 10 minutes. It's a busy time of year, if the Oilers aren't going to show up why should I?
Don't lose that great start in a sea of winter losses. During their generation in the cellar, the Oilers have had some hot streaks and some winning months. It is often followed by a step into the elevator shaft and we're seeing that now. However, the team could still right the ship, end up with 40 wins and consider the season a success. At some point, you have to stand and deliver.

I'm tired of knowing all the names of the really good draft picks by Christmas. Does everyone agree? It's time for the Oilers to do something. I know it's too much to ask for a trade that addresses balance, that's the kind of thing other teams do in order to improve. The Oilers aren't like that, I get it.

But for heaven's sake do something to let the fans know that losing isn't the goal here. Phoenix and Ottawa hooked up yesterday and a pretty damn good defenseman was in the equation. I'm not suggesting the Oilers do that, it's too much to hope for under the Lowe regime.

Maybe Daryl Katz will throw the fans a Christmas bone and text "there will be changes" or maybe they can send down three guys and call up three other guys.

Something. Something before Baby Jesus gets here in 7 days.

G32 Oilers at Sharks

2011-12-17T06:46:00.001-07:00

This is Gary Simmons. Crazy. The Seals had nothing so searched for talent everywhere and found Simmons playing in the Newfoundland Senior League. That league must have been underscouted because the Seals turned up a few players from that part of the world.

I could show you the connection between the Oakland Seals and San Jose Sharks but you'd have to pack a lunch and it would take all day. Suffice to say it involves the Gund family and a promise that took many years to deliver.

The Oilers mailed it in on the first game of the road trip and that probably means they'll play their hearts out and lose in this game. It's a process, and these kids will learn like the generations before them.

I'm beginning to wonder about Tom Renney's future. Stu MacGregor has done his job, delivering shiny new hockey players two by two, and you could certainly argue that Steve Tambellini has procured some useful players too (Smyth, this year's Khabibulin, others).

Tom Renney has done some good things this year too, and I imagine he'll get an extension at some point. Still, as the season wears along and we endure the annual winter of our discontent I wonder what kind of report card the coach will get from this season.

The #1 overall picks are doing very well, Eberle is a machine and the veterans (for the most part) are doing well. The kids who were behind some of the veterans (Paajarvi behind Smyth, Omark behind Jones, Dubnyk behind Khabibulin) have lost their way somewhat and that could cost the coach. I don't think there's enough evidence to suggest Tom Renney is close to losing his job, but getting a long term deal also seems to be a distant bell. Perhaps a one year extension?
--

It's a busy Nation Radio today on Team 1260 at noon.

David Staples from the Cult of Hockey will talk to us about the difficulty the Oilers have been facing over the last few weeks.
Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report will help us set the table for the WJ's.
Jim Byers from the OKC Barons will be on to talk about OKC and their outstanding run. We'll also find out which players are carrying the mail.
Cam Moon from the Red Deer Rebels will help us preview the world juniors and talk to us about 2012 draft prospect Matt Dumba.
Bruce McCurdy will also chime in on the WJ's and tell us about the Oil Kings too. Bruce always has an opinion on the Oilers and we'll ask him about the Paajarvi demotion.
Terry Jones will pop by to talk Oilers and we'll talk about his HHOF experience.

emails welcome nationradio@theteam1260.com and you can also check out twitter @ItsNationRadio or @Lowetide_ and ask a question or pass along a comment.

Oilers Make A Decision

2011-12-16T16:39:00.001-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers sent Magnus Paajarvi to the minors today, hoping some time in OKC will see him get his confidence and scoring touch back over the next few weeks. Paajarvi has always been the offensive third wheel among the gifted 10-11 rookies (Hall, Eberle, MP) but that's a helluva crowd to run with and he could be a productive player in his own right.

10-11 5x5/60

Eberle 1.79
Hall 1.78
Paajarvi 1.36

11-12 5x5 60

Eberle 3.29
Hall 1.99
Paajarvi 0.67

These numbers for MP are a little misleading. He has three even strength points in 273 even strength minutes, meaning that he'd be on par with last year at six even strength points. Still, the guy isn't playing well and looks lost compared to a year ago.

The Oilers would do well to keep him in OKC until he's ripping it up, and it's very important that he plays solid minutes upon his return. The Oilers have too many wingers, and something has to give. Should they end up signing Ales Hemsky, getting special teams minutes is going to be difficult for a player with the talent of Magnus Paajarvi.

It might be time for him to re-invent himself as a two-way player. The ability is there in terms of foot speed and defensive awareness, but his perimeter play will be an issue.

#21-#30: The Rest

2011-12-16T06:52:00.000-07:00

Despite having his finest AHL season, the clock is ticking on Alex Plante. He's a few months away from being waiver eligible, and his chances of being exposed are high; what's more, interest is unlikely to be close to Taylor Chorney level. Alex Plante's mobility is a major item.

#21: D Alex Plante A solid year in OKC so far (his numbers suggest Plante has been their best fulltime defender) but the players ahead of him with similar skills (Smid, Peckham, Teubert) either have a wider range of skills or are ahead of him in the pecking order. It's very difficult to create a scenario next fall that sees Plante protected from waivers.
#22: C Tanner House College grad appears to be finding the range (3 goals in his last 5 games) and may supply enough offense to be a callup option. The Oilers early adoption of Lander makes it tough for all of the OKC centermen.
#23: C Chris VandeVelde Falls behind House just a little based on season performance so far. I thinkVV needs to find a new NHL address, center is well covered rolling out for miles.
#24: G Samu Perhonen He is the one goalie who hasn't performed well anywhere so far this season. I can't find much to sing about, but it's early. We know he's a tools goaltender so the road will be long with many a winding turn.
#25: D Taylor Fedun Wonderful training camp and pre-season had him in the mix for NHL employment right off the top. I don't know about the recovery but am willing to bet on him doing the work required.
#26: W Toni Rajala Has enjoyed a nice resurgence this season but the chances of his getting lost in the flood is massive. Have a look at the Oilers incumbent wingers for next year and then look at those outside looking in. Even if Omark flies the coop it'll be tough and we all know all 30 organizations have plenty of undersized skill wingers.
#27: W Kristians Pelss If I was a "saw him good" type Pelss would be in the top 20. He has a dynamite release, really good. However, he's undersized and not killing it on a very good team so I think this is the right spot.
#28: L Drew Czerwonka Big winger gained fame with a deep run last spring and has some offensive ability. We've seen flashes from big men before--JFJ anyone?--but he is certainly a player of interest.
#29: L Hunter Tremblay Probably not where they wanted him to be at this point, but there are still games to play. Tremblay would need to provide way more offense to pass people.
#30: C Milan Kytnar I don't know what to say. He's been good by any slide rule measurement since turning pro but we all knew he was the guy heading to Stockton based on the organization handling him in previous years. Nothing wrong that I can see. Maybe it's the sideburns.

I have not included defensemen Kirill Tulupov and Ryan Lowery, but I would have had them on the top 30 list had they been Oiler prospects. Should the team sign them and add these players to their 50 man list, I'd certainly consider them legit prospects.

G31 Oilers at Coyotes

2011-12-15T07:25:00.000-07:00

All kinds of indications the Oilers are getting healthy in some important places, and coach Renney's lines appear to make sense. This should be regarded as news.

Apparently Hall and Corey Power Potterplay are back and Khabibulin's extended rest has him good to go as well. The lines:

RNH-Gagner-Eberle
Horcoff-Hall-Hemsky
Belanger-Smyth-Jones
Lander-Eager-Petrell

I like those lines, although if we're telling the truth then VandeVelde on the 4th line in Edmonton and Lander in OKC makes more sense to me. I do think it's time to send Paajarvi down, the kid just refuses to shave those sideburns. When people won't listen, there's not a lot you can do.

--

The top 20 is completed, I'll have a wrap up post tomorrow and detail 21-30. I can say that the graduating class from last winter--Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Omark, Dubnyk--left a large hole so this year's edition is kind of all over the place after about #15.
--

Tyler Bunz not making the WJ team is a surprise, but Oiler fans will be able to see some good young defensemen under the team's umbrella. Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and Martin Gernat are all solid prospects and we should keep a watchful eye on them over the tournament.
--

I don't have much to say about tonight's game. PHX lost last night and maybe they'll be down after the work they put in, but then again the Oilers are on the road so there'll be some exposure. Predicting this young team would be easier if we knew what coach Renney planned to do in regard to matchups.

If Hall and Potter return, that'll be something to watch as well.

#20 Prospect: Ryan Martindale

2011-12-14T17:10:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #20

Summer 2011: #20

Winter 2010: #13

Summer 2010: #14

Ryan Martindale enjoyed an impressive junior career, playing on one of junior hockey's most famous lines during his time in Ottawa. Size and skill and some major questions. So far this season, none of those questions have been answered.

Stu MacGregor: "He was their top line centerman, he played with Toffoli. He was a very solid, big guy. He has to improve his game in some areas, but he has size and skill. His overall commitment needs to be there every night. He's a big kid that has a lot of talent."

Redline: Big pivot has three OHL campaigns under his belt and still shows the same mind-numbing lack of effort and passion we saw in him playing minor hockey, when he was being touted as a can't miss prospect. Effective with the puck in open ice - uses long quick reach, quick hands, and slick puckhandling skills. Lackign strength and drive in his legs, and not quick off the mark. Does have a nice shot release and can be effective when he shows some interest. But is easily pushed off the puck by smaller d-men. Soft and doesn't compete. Loses all the little battles and in not wild about contact.

--

After signing his pro contract (late, it was October) Ryan Martindale joined Curtis Hamilton and Tyler Pitlick as early pro's from the 2010 draft (Taylor Hall beat them all by making the NHL just months after being selected). Martindale's offense in junior hockey is well known and he projected well based on Desjardins' NHLE's. Here are the CHL forwards from 10-11 and their numbers run through Gabe's equivalency:

Curtis Hamilton (WHL) 10-23-33
Ryan Martindale (OHL) 13-18-31
Tyler Pitlick (WHL) 12-15-27
Drew Czerwonka (WHL) 5-11-16
Kristians Pelss (WHL) 5-8-13
Cameron Abney (WHL) 3-5-8

In training camp this fall, Martindale showed flashes of that offensive ability but also displayed the things that may keep him from making the NHL (he's not White Lightning on skates and seems to spend time on cruise control) but he did enough to convince the organization to sign him once the 50-Man situation shook loose.

Which brings us to the curious beginning of Martindale's career in pro hockey. Curtis Hamilton was signed in mid-April, Tyler Pitlick was signed a few days before Hamilton. Martindale was signed deep into the pre-season, in fact he signed just before OKC's season began.

Martindale ended up in Stockton (ECHL) and not much happened in October and November. He did get a taste of AHL action (2, 0-0-0 -1) but would appear to be an extra on the depth chart at this time. His Stockton performance (21, 1-7-8) didn't force the callup, but rather injuries and suspensions.

Martindale is similar to Pitlick and Hamilton in that their stories are starting slowly because of the organization's forward depth. All three will need to force their way into AHL jobs and that could take most of this year and some of next season. Ryan Martindale has not progressed as an NHL prospect, but it would be hard to argue that he's going the wrong way based on opportunity.

#19 Prospect: Kyle Bigos

2011-12-14T07:26:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #19

Not Previously Ranked

Kyle Bigos has made good progress since being drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in 2009. The 22-year old from Upland, Californa has played in Canadian hotspots like Wilcox, SK and Vernon, BC in an effort to make his way as a hockey player. No one should question his level of dedication to the game, at least no one who has spent a winter's day in Wilcox, Saskatchewan.

Kyle Bigos has had a stealth development since 2009 summer. Not a lot of things leaked out of Merrimack aside from "hits hard" and "he's a big guy" but that changed last summer. The Oilers organization started to talk about Bigos as a guy who was developing as a prospect and a player of interest in their estimation.

Stu MacGregor: "His game has done nothing but get better. A young man whose development curve is just beginning to move forward. Great shot, skates well for a big guy, he's someone we see huge potential in down the road."

Mike Sillinger: "His big thing is mobility. He's got to work on his mobility and his puck skills a bit. Watched him play a few times the last couple of years. He's a big guy, hits hard. We need to get him to put fear in the opposition."

Kyle Bigos: "I love to move the puck and play 5-on-5 with the team we have, but I'm also getting a chance on the powerplay. I'm mainly used as a shooter. I also get to play PK which is a blast! I think to go out and block shots and to try and stop the talent-filled teams in HE is a great challenge and a lot of fun."

Kyle Bigos projects as a big man who can play at even strength on the penalty-kill, but is unlikely to see time in pro hockey on the powerplay. He can fight, punish opponents and can turn pro in the fall. He knows what he needs to do.

Bigos: “When I was at Oilers camp they gave you rundown of everything from strength and conditioning to mental health, nutrition, skating, and playing the game. It was a real eye opener. They gave you all tools and it’s up to you to use them.”

Kyle Bigos was a long shot on draft day and remains one today. We should be thrilled if he ends up being Alex Henry. Henry played 177 NHL games and has been an AHL fixture for a long time.

In ranking Bigos ahead of the men in the conversation, some talented (but flawed) players were passed over.

Toni Rajala is having a nice season in Europe.
Chris VandeVelde is boxed in on this roster but could find a home elsewhere.
Alex Plante is having his finest AHL season.
Ryan Martindale still has the tools he possessed a year ago.
Tanner House is showing well in OKC.
Hunter Tremblay is doing the same.
Taylor Fedun showed very well in training camp before injury.
Samu Perhonen has a nice resume if not the results.

Later today: #20.

#18 Prospect: Phil Cornet

2011-12-13T17:00:00.002-07:00

Winter 2011: #18

Summer 2011: NR

Winter 2010: NR

Summer 2010: NR

Winter 2009: #13

Summer 2009: #13

Winter 2008: #19

Summer 2008: NR

Look, I know. It isn't sustainable. I understand this is not a player who boasts incredible size or a slapshot that can break metal. Still, Phil Cornet had a solid junior career and as the rankings indicate took awhile to adjust to pro hockey. Will he sustain it?

Stu MacGregor: “He’s that player who has hockey sense and a good stick so he gets to a lot of pucks around the net. He needs to get stronger and improve his skating a little bit but he has those skills that you need to be an elite player and I think he’ll have an opportunity if he develops physically and puts the effort in to learn to battle.”

Cornet's debut pro season (in OKC) saw him play a secondary role for the Barons. His boxcars (60, 7-16-23) ranked him 8th among forwards on the team. Oklahoma City had two 20-year old rookie pros at forward one year ago:

Teemu Hartikainen 66, 17-25-42
Phil Cornet 60, 7-16-23

Entering this season, Cornet's status among the organization's wingers could not have been strong. In fact, I felt there was some chance he would be in Stockton for part of the season based on his 10-11 performance in OKC. In order to show just how much depth the Oilers enjoy on the wings, allow me to list the options for Edmonton and the Barons:

Taylor Hall
Jordan Eberle
Ryan Smyth
Ales Hemsky
Ryan Jones
Magnus Paajarvi
Ben Eager
Lennart Petrell
Darcy Hordichuk
Linus Omark
Ryan Keller
Gilbert Brule
Teemu Hartikainen
Josh Green
Phil Cornet
Tyler Pitlick
Curtis Hamilton
Hunter Tremblay
Antti Tyrvainen

That's my list, you might want to add Sam Gagner and there's another mile of centers in OKC and surely some of them play wing. Anyway, it was a tough row to hoe for the young winger, especially based on his lukewarm season with the Barons in 10-11.

Cornet: “At the start of the year, we had meetings…and one of the things that I had to do better was to crash the net and stop at the net and get those rebounds and those tap-in goals."
Those meetings must have had an impact, because Cornet's status in OKC has turned around. He is now considered (despite a recent slump) a major part of the team and Barons coach Todd Nelson has been decidedly positive.
Nelson: “He's been playing well. He plays in a lot of different situations because he's a very smart player. I think it's a credit to Phil. He put in a great summer getting into better shape, and you can see it's paying off for him."

Cornet's scoring percentages:

Age 17: 23 goals on 156 shots (14.7%)
Age 18: 29 goals on 242 shots (12%)
Age 19: 28 goals in 237 shots (11.8%)
Age 20: 7 goals on 86 shots (8.1%)
Age 21: 15 goals on 43 shots (34.9%)

I don't have any answers here. We know that 35% is not an expected number, but what should we expect from this player? Using his outer marker from the Q and assuming he could reach 200 shots in a season we could expect 30 goals in the AHL for Cornet.

There is no evidence to suggest the Oilers value Cornet as a possible scoring option and with the names ahead of him it is unlikely that one outstanding scoring season in the AHL will clear the decks. Having said that, Phil Cornet has certainly done enough to make this list and may have an NHL career after all. Ripping the cover off the ball at age 21 in AAA for a couple of months is no guarantee of future success in the show, but it's a helluva nice trend.

#17 Prospect: Dillon Simpson

2011-12-13T06:52:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #17

Summer 2011: NR

Redline: Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Son of former longtime NHL'er Craig Simpson has very good hockey sense and understands game situations instinctively. Had trouble getting qualilty icetime as a 17-year-old true freshman on deep, veteran defence corps of top collegiate program, but did show steady progress adjusting to the pace of play against older, stronger opponents. Rarely saw the ice on either special teams units. Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility. Tentative to do anything offensively and always has one foot back on defence. Doesn't see the ice well and hurries to get the puck off his stick. Makes sharp defensive reads and is rarely out of position. Struggled 1-on-1 in the corners and down log against more physically developed forwards.

More Redline: "He's a smart player defensively, rarely out of position; but he's a pretty bad skater and he doesn't have any poise moving the puck. He's a slushy skater with a short and sluggish stride. His hands are stiff, he struggles to put passes on the tape and he always hurries to get the puck off of his stick. He's getting the ice time right now because of North Dakota's injuries."

ISS: Simpson is an all-around effective and smart defenseman who contributes in both ends of the ice while competing at a high level. He shows flashes of offensive productivity and potential. He has very good stride and at times when he is moving he almost looks like he isn’t working that hard, but with closer scrutiny, you realize he is actually a very effortless skater, with a very natural and efficient stride. He has very good range defensively, taking away time and space very efficiently. He always seems to maintain solid defensive positioning. Father Craig played 10 years in the NHL with Pittsburgh, Edmonton and Buffalo, and won two Stanley Cups with the Oilers.

Simpson has tremendous pedigree but his scouting reports were conflicting. Redline said he was a stay-at-home type and a "slushy" skater but ISS was more positive toward the player. Part of it may have been that Simpson was among the youngest NCAA players a year ago (17 when he started) and elevated his schooling as to be ready for UND last fall.

I suspect that's an unusal item for a hockey player.

For me, the best report came from Kirk Luedeke of Bruins Draft Watch, who often seemed to put everything together during his two year run with BDW.

Luedeke: A bit of a disappointing season for a player scouts had some real high hopes for coming in. The son of former NHL forward and HNIC analyst Craig Simpson (and nephew of television reporter Christine Simpson) has decent size at 6-1, 195. He scored 2 goals and 10 points in 30 games as a freshman and wasn't overly involved in the offensive scheme/didn't get a lot of ice time. He's a work in progress who has some soft hands and hockey sense, but isn't a great skater. He's slow out of the blocks and needs to work on his stride to get the most out of his movement. Scouts see intriguing elements of his game, but after 12 goals and 41 points last year with Spruce Grove of the AJHL, more of an impact was expected from him- he did not deliver. This is not to say Simpson isn't a legitimate NHL prospect- he is. He grew up around the game and has the natural athleticism to be a player, but this season showed that it is going to take time and he'd require a leap of faith for a team to draft him in the first two rounds.

Age 17: 27, 2-8-10 +11
Age 18: 16, 0-7-7 +3

Simpson was 1-2-3 on the PP a year ago and is already 0-6-6 this season with the man advantage. Simpson has 17 blocked shots according to the UND site so far this season. but there is no blocked shot data available from a year ago.

In slotting Simpson at #17, I had to feel he had more upside than the remaining forwards under consideration (Martindale, Vande Velde, Rajala, Cornet, House, Tremblay) and was clear of what remains a pretty nice group of defensemen (Plante, Bigos, injured Fedun) plus the goalie.

Simpson wins the day based on age--he's playing in a league that featured men 7 years his senior one year ago--his pedigree and improvement year over year. His increased involvement on the PP for instance is another gear that would not have been evident in scouting him a year ago.

Either way, Dillon Simpson makes the list. If I had to guess about his future, I'd suggest his arrows are pointing in a good direction.

#16 Prospect: Frans Tuohimaa

2011-12-12T17:00:00.002-07:00

Winter 2011: #16

Summer 2010: NR

In July of 2009, the Edmonton Oilers hired Frederic Chabot as goalie coach. Since then, they've selected three goaltenders, including Finn prospect Frans Tuohimaa.

6.02, 180 on his draft day, information on the young G wasn't readily available. Selected during the period when the chairs are being put away, Tuohimaa had a solid resume and had been developing through the Finnish system over the years leading up to the draft. Although eligible, he was not ranked by CSS and undrafted in 2010, but was rated the sixth among European goalies by CSS in their final 2011 rankings.

Hockey's Future: Another large goalie who uses his size well, Tuohimaa joined Jokerit's A junior team this season after playing his youth hockey and two Junior A seasons with cross-town rival HIFK. How much of his success can be attributed to playing for third-place Jokerit is debatable, but Tuohimaa was one of the busiest goalies in A juniors, playing in 37 regular season games and seven playoff contests and had the top save percentage in the league, stopping over 93 percent of the shots he faced. While Tuohimaa has not been as highly regarded as some of the other goalies in his age group, and has played for Finland's junior program in some international matches but never at the U-18 or U-20 world championships, his play this season did attract the attention of the scouting community.

In a summer interview with Hockey's Future, Tuohimaa expressed the game plan for 2011-12: "I'm trying to get a lot of games up there in SM-Liiga. I'm here in a challenger's situation but I will really go for it and I hope I will really challenge (projected Jokerit starter and 2003 Dallas draft pick) Eero Kilpeläinen."

So far this season, Tuohimaa has been catching some breaks and is in fact the starting goaltender at this time. His career numbers suggest that steady climb through the Finnish system continues unabated.

Age 17: 18, 3.97 .885 (Fin Jr)
Age 18: 20, 2.89 .911 (Fin Jr)
Age 19 37, 2.14 .931 (Fin Jr)
Age 20: 16, 2.52 .903 (SM-Liiga)

There are some things to consider in regard to Tuohimaa. He's one month younger than Olivier Roy, meaning that Tyler Bunz (6 months) and Samu Perhonen (18 months) are younger than Tuohimaa. Goalies develop along wildly different timelines, but it is a consideration we should keep in mind. Also, although Tuohimaa's numbers in Finland's best league look good, the veteran Eero Kilpelainen is far superior (.924) in SP and Tuohimaa's audition is based on the veteran's availability to the team.

In choosing Tuohimaa ahead of Perhonen, I wanted to point out something I read over the summer at Copper and Blue in an article posted by Lisa McRitchie: and a quote from Stu MacGregor:

You would think that because one of the Finnish goaltenders was selected in the third round, and the other not until the seventh round, that one is better than the other. "Not really quite true. We just thought that with the younger guy, that you needed to get at it, that if you wanted to get him you've got to step up and get him just because he's in his draft year. Sometimes those later aged guys, you can take a little bit more of a chance. I know that [Oilers goaltending coach] Freddie Chabot saw these guys play over in Finland and has watched tape on them. He was really thrilled when I phoned him just before the seventh, just before our pick. I said, 'What if we take Tuohimaa with this one', and he said, 'I'd be really happy.'"

#15 Prospect: Brandon Davidson

2011-12-12T07:00:00.012-07:00

Winter 2011: #15

Summer 2011: #16

Winter 2010: #18

Summer 2010: NR

Brandon Davidson is a 20-year old playing junior hockey. It's actually quite rare for a future NHL player to be sent back to junior but the Oilers had 50-man issues. Either way, Davidson did get a late start in organized hockey so the extra year may not be an issue. If he does make the grade, he'll be able to tell people he's one of the "Orest Kindrachuk" All-Stars.
STU MACGREGOR: "We were looking for a puck mover, and Davidson certain is that. We were surprised he was there, he's a talented kid. He did have an injury problem with a knee just after Christmas; we feel he has a legitimate chance to be a solid guy for us in our organization."

The Scouting Report: One of the most intriguing prospect stories in the draft is that of Brandon Davidson. After being unable to afford AAA hockey, Davidson flew under the radar playing AA, and only started getting some legitimate exposure last season. Fast forward to today, and Davidson has established himself as a strong defenseman for the Regina Pats who has not only played tremendous defense, but also chipped in on offense as well. Given his unheralded path, it’s tough to forecast how much more potential is left in the tank, but he’s certainly deserving of a Top 60 pick at this point.

Mike Remmerde: I usually like late bloomers who come out of nowhere, but this guy's skating bothers me too much. Has big trouble with pivots. But he's got really good hockey sense and is a very good puck mover. Probably goes way higher than I like, but if somehow he lasted until the 5th round, I might be interested.

ISS: Height: 6.01 Weight: 190 Davidson was listed by the Pats after last seasons Mac's Midget Tournament. He has not missed a beat and has added some offensive flair to the Pat d-core. He moves the puck very well and is a key contributor to the PP. He has great mobility and vision with the puck. He has made an easy and smooth transition from Midget AAA to the WHL. Not often is there an 18 yr old rookie who has the impact that Davidson has had this season.
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Age 18 59, 1-33-34 .576

Age 19 72, 8-43-51 .708

Age 20 33, 8-18-26 .788

Davidson has improved year over year offensively, and this is during a time of great turnover in Regina. However, I think he's clearly below a player like Blain offensively, but we'll find out more about this pair next season when they turn pro.

September: 4, 0-6-6 +2

October: 12,5-3-8 +7

November: 10, 1-7-8 -2

December: 7, 2-2-4 +3

Overall: 33, 8-18-26 +10

PP: 33, 3-5-8

PK: 33, 0-1-1

EV: 33, 5-12-17

Davidson ranks in a tie for 5th among WHL defensemen in points. That's a fine number, but we have to take into account that he's a 20-year old playing junior hockey.

Defensively, Davidson plays a steady game and is a good hitter without going D gone wild. Good positionally and a smart player, smart enough to earn the right to play in an OKC post-season game in the spring.

20 years old and still in junior, skating issues and we know he's going to have all kinds of competition. However, he moves the puck well and his numbers have improved each season. He's a rock in a pretty damn good junior league, plus he's the captain and I'm not going to be the one to bet against him. Brandon Davidson has already come a long way.

#14 Prospect: Jeremie Blain

2011-12-11T16:34:00.000-07:00

Winter 2011: #14

Summer 2011: #12

Winter 2010: #19

Summer 2010: #19

Do you remember Jacques Laperriere? Lanky rearguard for the Habs 40 years ago, he used to look like he was running and slipping on a banana peel when he skated. However, Laperriere was an extremely effective NHL defender and had some fine offensive seasons. Won a Norris too. Jeremie Blain--by size, description and in the photo above--reminds me of the great Hab of yesterday.

Which tells us nothing really about how good he is.

Stu MacGregor: "Good size, very strong, competes hard and plays with an edge. A guy we really liked, Billy Dandy really pushed him hard. When I saw him play, the kid played on a terrible team but played hard every shift. We feel we got some more size there and we got some grit."

Blain appears to be a bright young man and his interviews come across as intelligent and engaged. Clearly, there's a light on in there. "I need to get bigger and stronger, for sure. That's typical for any young kid," said the young kid not long ago. The young kid said something else recently that cost him two games, and that might be an issue the organization will have to address when he turns pro.

Let's talk about him as an offensive player.

Age 17 64, 4-34-38 .594
Age 18 40, 2-35-37 .925
Age 19 24, 6-16-22 .917

I don't think he's M-A Bergeron as an offensive defender but those are good numbers.

September: 3, 1-1-2 E

October: 12, 2-9-11 +4

November: 5, 2-3-5 +1

December: 4, 1-3-4 -2

Overall: 24, 6-16-22 +3

PP: 24, 2-5-7

PK: 24, 0-0-0

EV: 24, 4-11-15

Offensively, Blain is among the best prospects in the system. Clearly a quality passer, Blain has played on poor teams and good teams, posting numbers in both cases. He did some good things at the summer prospect camp, and left with the notion that getting bigger, stronger and faster was the key to future success.

Blain: "The most important thing I learned is (I need to be) tougher in front of the net and in the corners. As a D you've got to own the front of your net and you've got to own the corners too. From there I just need to play my game, move the puck quick and support the attack."

You can read about it here.
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In slotting Blain behind players like Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat, I think it's only fair to suggest that Blain may actually be as good or better offensively. It remains to be seen if any or all of these kids bring offense to the pro's, but Blain isn't getting a huge push from the powerplay and has posted very good numbers for 2.5 seasons now (or thereabouts).

I've nicked him a little because of injury (he missed some time last season due to a foot injury) and he doesn't seem to have any one outstanding skill. That said, Blain is a solid NHL prospect.

#13 Prospect: Tobias Rieder

2011-12-11T09:38:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #13

Summer 2011: #14

Tobias Rieder is a RW from Landshut, Germany. He plays in Kitchener, which must feel like home (100 years ago, Kitchener Ontario was called "Berlin") and Ranger fans are certainly happy to have him. Rieder is the 5th member of the 2011 draft group to make the list, following RNH (#1), Oscar Klefbom (#3), Martin Gernat (#7) and David Musil (#10).

Redline: Undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity. Has decent speed, but lacks the explosive first step burst and acceleration you'd like to see in a player his size. Super soft hands and slick with the puck in tight; can create separation with sharp cuts/turns. Sees the ice very well and can saucer touch passes through traffic off either side of the blade. Makes imaginative set-ups, often surpassing his mates with unexpected plays. Average shot, but has good finishing ability from the circles in with a quick release he hides well. Anticipates developing plays, stepping in to intercept passes and start quick counterattacks in transition. Desperately needs to pack on muscle - lost weight during the season and was out of gas from January on. Not afraid to go into the corners and will take hits, but can't battle effectively.

Kirk Luedeke: German winger Tobias Rieder is the second of Kitchener's sublime import duo, and may well be the best player to ever come out of that country when all is said and done. The speedy and ultra-skilled forward showed no transition struggles and has been a crucial element in keeping Kitchener's high-octane offense going, especially with the loss of 50-goal man Jeff Skinner to the Carolina Hurricanes. We're not saying Rieder is the next Skinner (he's got similar size and can really fly; doesn't have quite the sublime hands/hockey sense though), but he's one heck of a scoring talent, and hockey is in his blood. This is a kid who is absolutely driven to be in the NHL one day, and based on early returns, he's going to get there.

The Scouting Report: There was high praise for Rieder at the start of the year as the German born center/winger came over to Kitchener with fairly high expectations. After starting out the year at a pretty good pace, Rieder slowed down as the year progressed. He’s a little undersized but he definitely competes hard for his size and wears his heart on his sleeve on the ice. Didn’t have a great showing during the World Juniors but by the 3rd or 4th round, he’ll be a decent prospect to see if he can continue to develop his offensive game over the next couple of seasons.

ISS: The smaller German sniper struggled with a shoulder injury during the World-U18 and was held to 3 games played, but managed to tally 3 goals. Rieder is a strong offensive player, with two-way potential. He has a very good well rounded skill set but excels as the shooter in the offensive end. Voted Rangers Rookie of the Year, finished 9th in scoring among rookies in the OHL. Rieder production slipped after he slipped down the depth chart when D'Amigo arrived.
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What we try to do on this blog is identify reasonable. The young man's scouting report suggests a nice range of skills and hints at offense, but year one in the OHL didn't get him into the top 100 draft picks for 2011 (Rieder went #114).

History tells us that if he plays in the NHL, we should expect a Liam Reddox level player. Let's compare the young German to Reddox at the same age:

LIAM REDDOX

Age 17 68, 31-33-64 .941ppg
Age 18 68, 36-46-82 1.206ppg

TOBIAS RIEDER

Age 17 65, 23-26-49 .754ppg
Age 18 27, 21-14-35 1.296ppg

Reddox was drafted #112 in 2004 and had a 100 game NHL career. Is that what we can expect from Rieder? I think he's a solid comparable.

Rieder is currently 4th in the entire OHL in goals scored. Reddox tied for 9th in league scoring at the same age.
Rieder has potted 5 PP goals so far (Reddox had 13 in a full season, so that's in the range) but also has 4 SH goals--tied for third in the OHL. Reddox had two SH goals, same season.
At even strength, Rieder is 27, 12-6-18 .667 and Reddox was 68, 21-21-42 .618.

So, you're probably asking why I have him at 13th in the system if he's the new Liam Reddox. There are a few reasons. Rieder's scouting report suggests that he is skilled, has a plus shot and very good footspeed. He also has an advantage over Reddox in that the Oiler forward came through a system that was rife with small forwards.

And I think you can make a case for Reddox having a longer NHL career if Craig MacTavish had stayed as coach. Pat Quinn's arrival meant a season in the minors and by the time Tom Renney took over as coach the Oilers were in full rebuild mode and Reddox was miles from the front.

We're at a point in the top 20 where all of the prospects have some issues. The forwards still to come have size or speed issues, the defensemen to come have footspeed or maturity concerns and the goalie still to come is a Chabot wild card.
From that group, I believe Rieder has the best chance to win the day.

G30 Oilers at Flames

2011-12-10T07:43:00.000-07:00

The Nuge nudged up the scoring parade last night, the first center since Doug Weight to deliver a point total that has the league noticing.

We've known for some time that the kid is splendid on the PP, and that skill is extremely rare. When we talked about his as the #1 prospect in the system late November, I posted:

RNH's 2.41/60 at 5x5 ranks him 79th among NHL forwards who have played 5 games or more. Jonathan Toews had a 2.17/60 number at 5x5 during his rookie season, so RNH seems to be on a solid path. Although Toews was older than RNH as a rookie, their styles (C's with a nice range of skills) are similar enough for the comparable to have some merit despite the 12 month difference in age.
RNH's 8.34/60 at 5x4 ranks him 16th among NHL forwards who have played 10 games or more. Now that's an insane number, but the fact that the Oilers are using him as a major option for dishing on the PP--AND that his beautiful passes are being cashed by linemates--is an astounding portion of this early season. Rookies take a long time to impact NHL powerplays. Jonathan Toews 4.29/60 at 5x5 in his rookie season would seem to be a good "line in the sand" by season's end.

Someone forgot to tell the Nuge about reasonable. This morning, he has a 2.65/60 at 5x5 which ranks him just outside the league's top 30 (Eberle is #1 btw in the entire league this morning among forwards with 10gp or more).

RNH has fallen off 5x4, he's down to 7.99/60 which is still a gaudy number. I never want to compare this young man to he-who-should-not-be-named, but the passes last night were so beautiful and perfect is draws comparisons to some of the very best to play the game.

There may come a time when we take this fellow for granted, even smooth passes are less impressive once you lose scale (when I saw the Spruce Goose it was awe inspiring for the first 25 minutes and then kind of a drag).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wonder.
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Needless to say there was a lot of good in last night's game. A few observations:

Gagner clearly benefited from the push to the RNH-Eberle line, but deserves credit for a lot of hard work on the first goal and other plays in the game. A very good sign.
Eberle sure scores goals from outside places. He's popping goals from high in the slot and picking corners consistently. This season especially, Eberle's shot looks all world.
Ray Ferraro suggested last night that the Oilers might end up moving Ales Hemsky down to the 3rd line when Taylor Hall come back, with Gagner usurping 83's time on RW in the top 6. It sounds ridiculous, and Hemsky has not been himself but the idea of having that kind of firepower batting deep in the lineup is so appealing. I have no idea why they didn't try to roll with more offensive setups when Omark was available, but there's a nice opportunity here to find three lines who can do things. Hall-Smyth on LW Eberle-Gagner on RW? My money is still on the Czech.
Terry Jones has an outstanding article on the kid here.

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Nation Radio hits the air at noon today on Team 1260 (click on icon to the right) at noon today. I read comments posted at both blogs, on twitter @ItsNationRadio and @lowetide_ plus we're available at nationradio@theteam1260.com Our guests:

Matt Bugg from dobber hockey. The prospects expert will spend time telling us about some of the Oilers kids who are emerging this season and we'll preview the WJs and the names to know in that Xmas tournament.
Kent Wilson from Flames Nation will help tee up the BOA tonight in Calgary. Flames are 5-4-1 in their last 10 and the Oilers are 4-5-1 in the same time frame. With the Oilers off for a long stretch after the game, it's an important contest.
Danny Gray from Leafs Nation will break down the sale of MLSE and how it will impact the television sports pie in this country. We'll also have a look at the parallel improvement of the Leafs and Oilers and see which path chosen appears to be working best.
Ryan Lambert from Two Line Pass. Ryan is a keen observer of the game and a clever fellow. We'll talk about the league in general and the BOA specifically, along with some league news over the last week.

Your input is always important hope you can listen live or via podcast.

G29 Avalanche at Oilers

2011-12-09T06:30:00.000-07:00

Based on the lines in practice yesterday, I beginning to think coach Renney misses Taylor Hall in a big way, or Sam Gagner is being showcased. Or both

Yesterday at practice, coach Renney--who is not the hardest line matcher who ever walked a turn at Shawshank--shuffled his lines again.

RNH-Gagner-Eberle
Horcoff-Smyth-Hemsky
Belanger-Eager-Jones
Lander-Paajarvi-Hordichuk

This tells us a few things. Paajarvi's sideburns are now completely out of control, the coach wants to add more truculence at the expense of skill and Eager is getting a push in hopes that he can score and make some noise physically.

The veteran line is back together and will no doubt face a lot of own zone starts and some of the Avs best. The RNH line is also likely to get a push in zone starts, although coach Renney doesn't appear to like line matching lately (after working like a demon to get it earlier in the season).

And they appear to like Gagner at what I'd always felt was his weakest position--LW. Are they giving him a push for trade or do they really feel that line could damage the soft parade.
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Gagner's 5x5/60 number has corrected in a hurry. He is now 1.61/60 and has improved plenty in one week so maybe the coach sees a chance to add a bat in the lineup. Still, Gagner is in the Hall position now and that means something has to give when the phenom returns.
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Jim Matheson was speculating about Linus Omark in an article yesterday. The item is here, and this is interesting:

A report in a Swedish paper says Omark, who will get the cast off his broken foot Dec. 29, has talked to management from his former Swedish Lulea club team. Omark has said he doesn't want to spend the whole season in the AHL.

So nothing concrete but Matheson is connected and if the Oilers told him "Linus is in our long term plans" he would have reported it. You know, sometimes organizations are rewarded by their scouting departments with miles and miles of talent, and sometimes they treat it like a naturally renewable resource.

The Expos used to be like that. They had so many outfielders guys like Gary Roenicke couldn't find a job, yet ten years later they're asking the Blue Jays if Mitch Webster can come out to play. I don't know that Linus Omark can outscore opponents, but do know that a roster that includes Lennart Petrell, a young Anton Lander, Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk should be able to find room for Linus Omark.

How we got to this place (Omark in OKC and Paajarvi's sideburns) tells us about the kind of team Tom Renney thinks he can win with moving forward. With that in mind, if they're going to trade Sam Gagner--and please understand I think it's a mistake--I'd like to suggest the Oilers ask after Zack Kassian.

If you're going to employ big physical players, try to get ones who can play. Surely that's the lesson of J-F Jacques.

#12 Prospect: Olivier Roy

2011-12-08T17:21:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #12

Summer 2011: #11

Winter 2010: #15

Summer 2010: #16

Winter 2009: #19

Olivier Roy is a famous prospect owing to fine performances in the QMJHL and to making Team Canada's WJC U18 and U20 teams as he made his way through junior hockey. He graduated to pro level this fall and has done some good things in 2011.

PRE-DRAFT

Redline report: "Roy has great athleticism and flexibility and is a tough-minded competitor who never gives up on a play. While he's fairly advanced technique-wise, the problem for this typical butterfly netminder is his penchant for constantly going down to the ice too early and swimming around the crease. He gets by with that style in the junior ranks, but at only 5-11 and 163 pounds, he's too small to cover the corners, and we suspect that pro shooters will pick him apart up high and take advantage of his habit of overcommitting."
NHL Central Scouting’s Chris Bordeleau: “He catches your attention. He's steady and he plays well all the time.”
Cape Breton goaltending coach Scott Gouthro: “Olivier Roy has extremely quick reflexes and when he challenges is extremely hard to beat. He continues to work on his puckhandling which is a key tool for the next level. He is a warrior, his competitive nature and desire to win is exceptional.”

Oilers goalie coach Frederic Chabot 2010 fall: "He’s shown a lot of maturity in the last year. He’s just six feet tall so he needs to very, very precise as to how he positions himself in the net. But he’s one of those goalies who looks bigger in the net. He stands tall. He does a good job challenging guys.”

The Oilers have run a few goalies through Stockton over the past several years, and I thought it might be an idea to compare their SP's in their first ECHL seasons.

Olivier Roy 2011-12 .922
Devan Dubnyk 2006-07: .921
Andrew Perugini 2008-09: .908
Glenn Fisher 2007-08: .903
Bryan Pitton 2008-09: .886

I have no idea what this means, aside from the fact that Roy does appear to be a legit goaltending prospect. The Q grad is average in size, a butterfly style goaltender and trails Tyler Bunz by my estimate but that doesn't mean the organization feels that way.

Roy has been the ECHL goalie of the week and is 6th in SP in the entire league. Roy's junior career was impressive, and his pro career is starting off well. He might be off broadway, but he's also serving notice. Despite not fitting the modern goalie template, Olivier Roy is getting the job done and then some.

#11 Prospect: Colten Teubert

2011-12-08T07:00:00.002-07:00

Colten Teubert is destined to be a crowd favorite in Edmonton. A tough, physical defenseman with a large mean streak, he stands out as a strong skater with size. I count him as the 2nd best defensive defenseman in the system, and the 5th best defender overall bubbling under.

Winter 2011: #11

Summer 2011: #15

AHL coach Mark Morris: "Like most guys who enter the American Hockey League, the biggest challenge is making the reads. He is a strong skater, so if he makes a poor read he has the ability to eat up ground and shut people down. What I like about him is that he seems to get a piece of somebody every time he is on the ice, and he is a hard guy to play against. At times when he handles the puck, he might not make the best choice, but he keeps the game fairly simple. He is an old school defenceman in my books; the type of guy that everybody will appreciate over the course of time.He's not going to wow you in the beginning, but I think over time he will prove that he is a force to be reckoned with and he can be a reliable, dependable defender."
NHL Director of Central Scouting EJ McGuire: "Colten is a smooth skating defenseman, who can skate the puck out of trouble and can jump up the ice with the puck. I like Colten for a lot of reasons, but most of all for his ability to take charge of the game. He projects as a support three or four defenseman, at least initially in the NHL, with a good offensive upside who won't hurt you on defense."

"He's big, strong, mean ... and he just continues to get better."
Regina Pats Head Coach Curtis Hunt:

Colten Teubert on himself: I consider myself a punishing defenseman. I'm the guy that you put out against your top players and tell me to shut them down. I think I have a great shot from the point and get it through.

The Hockey News: Teubert is a classic defensive defenseman who excels in the shutdown aspect of the game and plays with a pretty wide mean streak. “He’s not as polished as [Luke] Schenn, but he’s meaner than Schenn,” one scout said. “He’s a nasty guy to play against.” One scout said Teubert might tumble on draft day because he can be a little erratic and compared him to Bryan Marchment. Another scout wonders what all the fuss is about with Teubert. “I think he’s a little overrated,” the scout said. “He has pretty average hockey sense. He has good size and mobility and he competes, but I think his hockey sense keeps him from being a top pick.”

Morey Gare after his trade to Edmonton: "We like a lot of things about his game that we're kind of lacking with our organization. He has good size and strength, good mobility, we like his physical game and his toughness. Most importantly, his willingness to be involved physically in the game and to be hard to play against. We see him as more of a defensive defenceman who will be able to contribute some offence. He moves the puck well, too. We're really drawn to the whole package."

I believe Morey Gare's report on him is the one to adopt as a reasonable line in the sand. I think Teubert was hired because Alex Plante's mobility made him a question mark for the highest levels. Teubert is a better prospect because he combines size and speed, along with that mean streak. If they can coach him up on the coverage aspect--and he certainly looked capable as an Oiler earlier this season--then the Oilers have a legit NHL defenseman who can play a role.

I like Teubert as a prospect, believe he's going to have a career and cover the 250 game bet required to be considered (on the blog) a successful draft pick. I don't believe he's a better prospect than the defenders listed above and will explain my opinion below.

I've been dancing around this over the last few posts, and now that we're at Colten Teubert it's time to be very specific. I think Colten Teubert's outer marker is Jason Smith. Now, that's a fine, fine hockey player. Wish we had three of them, honestly. In 05-06, Jason Smith played 15:09 at evens, 4:13 at SH and 15 seconds a game on the PP. I think that's what we might see in Teubert's best seasons. I think David Musil's potential is similar.

The reason I ranked Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and Martin Gernat above them is because they have a "wider" range of skills as prospects. We don't know the future, but if these kids reach their outer marker, they may have stats similar to Jaro Spacek that season (15:26, 3:24, 4:48 by discipline).

My rankings give zero reward for being close to the NHL. None. The wider the range of skills, the higher the ranking. It's very likely one of the three will fall down the list, not able to sustain the offense and exposing their weaknesses defensively. However, as we sit Colten Teubert's rank is 11th, and honestly if this was three weeks from now Dillon Simpson might jump ahead of him. This list is about potential.

G28 Hurricanes at Oilers

2011-12-07T07:26:00.000-07:00

I have tried in these years to hate Carolina, but it's hard to find bad things about a place where Nina Simone was born. I have tried to despise that Hurricane team, but Doug Weight was on that team so it isn't a universal hatred.

I've tried to hate Jimmy Rutherford, but the man played for so many bad teams it doesn't seem fair to be angry at him for climbing Mount Stanley on the Oilers' watch.

I've decided to trumpet the 2006 Oilers. What a wonderful team! Roloson had such a wonderful run, the blueline had real star power and was extremely effective, and the offense was firing on all cylinders. The coach had a strong hand every series and played them with aplomb.

St. Fernando, Smytty, the Hemmer, the Russian Horcov, the Human Rake, Rollie the Goalie, Radek and Peca and Raffi and Rachel Hunter and on it went. The hired guns (Spacek, Samsonov), Winchester's goal and #10 blocking a shot in Detroit City with his face. You could write 2 Subterranean Homesick Blues with all the news that spring.

They won a pennant, the first in this town in more than 15 years. Bless you boys, wherever you are.
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The Hurricanes lost in Calgary due to a missed extra point last night and they're pretty awful. Having said that, the Oilers aren't exactly lighting things up over the last month so fans shouldn't be too confident. In their last ten, Edmonton is 4-5-1 and the Hurricanes are 2-7-1 in their last 10 games.

Oilers are due a PP goal and it would be nice to see Paajarvi score a goal. A win is a must, but we've been saying that for awhile now.

#10 Prospect: David Musil

2011-12-06T08:03:00.000-07:00

If we're playing favorites, David Musil is near the top of my list. He was so calm in pre-season that one could easily project him into the future as steady, reliable defender. Lots of PK, tough EV minutes and plenty of grit and toughness.

Winter 2011: #10

Summer 2011: #8

Redline report: His father, Frank, was a longtime NHL defenseman and currently a highly respected scout. David has excellent size and strength and plays a rugged brand of hockey with a bit of a mean streak. He reads developing plays well and uses anticipation to break up plays before they become dangerous. He's got good hockey sense in all three zones, but his offensive upside is limited due to his mediocre point shot.

TSN: Highly touted in the Czech Republic for several years, one of the rare players to compete in three U-18 championships. Good genes, being the son of a former NHLer and a tennis pro, and nephew of Bobby Holik. Strengths - Has good gap control and active stick. He can play a physical game given his size and strength. Has a hard shot, good character and leadership abilities. Weaknesses - Shot lacks accuracy, takes too long to shoot, feet are below average, hands aren't great, not a puck carrier, dead ends himself. Could be more consistent with his physical play.

ISS: He is not easy to get around, can play physical when required and isn’t afraid to mix it up or answer the bell when required. He has great gap control and can really lure players in and then strip them of the puck using his big reach. His skating ability has come a long way as has most of his other technical skills.

Bruins Draft Watch: With Musil, it is more about the fact that he looks like a safe defender but nowhere near the high-upside guy he looked like several years ago when he burst onto the scene in the various international tournaments as a 15-year-old. Another aspect of Musil's game we have heard troubling things about is with the intensity and desire -- some NHL evaluators have said that he is the product of hockey coming very easy to him early on and the natural physical advantage he enjoyed at a younger age. Now, his peers are catching up to him and surpassing him, and he's not consistently bringing the kind of intensity you want.

Musil is listed at 6.04 and 203 and will no doubt have the size to play at the NHL level. He is not going to be an NHL PP option (the only category that Musil is ranked is PIMs) but should be a solid EV and PK performer. I think he's likely the best candidate in the system to be the next Jason Smith-Steve Staios type defender on the Oilers: steady, can move the puck up and will score 3-5 goals for you each season.

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A note about Musil and his position in the top 20. My list is based on potential, range of skills and the players chances of playing north of 250 NHL games (I think that's a reasonable line in the sand as the lowest requirement for a prospect to turn into an NHL player).

Musil scores well as a "good bet" and I do think he has the tools to contribute to winning games. I don't think he's a "complete" defender in that the offense isn't going to reach levels where he'll be a PP option in pro hockey. Is a defenseman who can play in all three disciplines more valuable than a defenseman who can play in only two? I believe so. However, if Musil flourishes in the EV and PK roles at the NHL level he could easily be the best blueliner on this list.

Measuring that requires knowledge that I don't possess, so we go with what the numbers and history tell us. David Musil is more likely to make the NHL than some of the players ahead of him on this list, but in a role that will require 15-22 minutes a night.

#9 Prospect: Tyler Pitlick

2011-12-05T17:53:00.001-07:00

ALL scouting reports rave about Tyler Pitlick’s ability to be a physical factor in games, and many suggest he will indeed play in the NHL as a center (although he’s back on the wing of late). The great unknown–at least the great unproven–is his ability to score goals and contribute to goal scoring.

Based on the monthly stats, offense is a moving target for the AHL rookie. Here are Pitlick’s month by month totals so far this season in Oklahoma City:

OCT: 8, 1-2-3 +1
NOV: 11, 3-1-4 -7
DEC: 2, 0-0-0 -1
OVERALL: 21, 4-3-7 -7
PP: 21, 2-1-3
PK: 21, 0-1-1
EV: 21, 2-1-3

The role played has a major impact for any player, but I think Pitlick’s special teams points suggest he is getting chances. The coaching staff must see good things, because they have other options. The AHL seems to have a dizzying rotation of PP/big minutes/healthy scratches that players go through, but Pitlick has done some things with his chances. The step from junior to the AHL is a big one, and Pitlick’s dry spells are predictable.

Pitlick is an interesting interview. This article is a very good look into the “new” Oilers and their emphasis on communication. I would dearly love to quote about 10 things from the article but will limit it to just one:

Pitlick: “College was pretty physical, but I don’t think it really compares to this level. It was a step up for me last season in Medicine Hat, and I think I handled it well. It’s been another step up here in OKC, but I think I’ve done well adapting to this, too. That’s one area, but there are a lot of other things I’ve had to work on as well.”

Based on reports, Pitlick is a very physical player in the AHL and we know that’s no beer league.

Redline Report: “Accelerates briskly out of cross-over and blows by defenders. Has an NHL calibre shot right now. Flashed the ability to power through defenders. Can gain separation in corners with sharp twists and can turn on a dime. Patient playmaker. Long-limbed with farmboy like strength. Aggressive and finished checks. Can shield the puck and work it down low, but often gives it up due to his eagerness to come off the wall and attempt to dance around defenders. Work in progress defensively – will come back deep and battle for the puck but lacks awareness in coverage assignments. Green in many facets and was stuck on a Mankato team that was every man for himself, but was a big-time talent.”
I’m very hopeful about Pitlick, but the offense is going to be the story. Even if he ends up being a winger, Edmonton can get full value from a 2-way, physical winger who can chip in 15-20 goals a season. His NHLE by season suggests that might be what we’re looking at in this player:

09-10 (18): 82, 10-7-17
10-11 (19): 82, 12-15-27
11-12 (20): 82, 7-5-12

A few things here: first, his 18-year old season was in the NCAA and freshman don’t play a lot traditionally. Absent strong evidence that he was a top 9 option every night, I would suggest that Pitlick’s NHLE’s should be given a little leeway. Same thing with this season: although Pitlick is playing, we don’t know the role and that no doubt impacts the numbers. Remember, Fernando Pisani didn’t score a lot as an AHL rookie and he was an older NCAA grad.

Tyler Pitlick is an interesting prospect. He isn’t an offensive dynamo, but with all of the top end talents already in Edmonton there might be a role on a skill line for a physical forward prepared to get his nose dirty. Pitlick’s skill set tells us there are several options, and one of them might be as a complementary player on a skill line.
In other words, exactly what many fans are calling for right now at the NHL level.

Klefbom Named to Team Sweden

2011-12-05T07:06:00.001-07:00

There was a time when Oiler fans could see the club's very best teenagers at the World Junior Championships. This year the best U20 plays at Rexall with the big club, but there are a few gems still available for the WJ's.

Oscar Klefbom is the headliner.

I got the news from Guy Flaming over at Coming Down the Pipe yesterday afternoon. As you know, Oscar Klefbom has been struggling a little with injuries but has played in the SEL for most of the season. He is one of 7 defensemen on a fairly impressive Swedish team and we should see a lot of him over the holidays.

OILERS AT THE WJ's

Team Canada: G Tyler Bunz (1 of 4 G's named, 2 make the team)
Team Czech: D David Musil (named to prelim roster, should be a lock)
Team Latvia: L Krisitans Pelss (has been named to the team)
Team Slovakia: D Martin Gernat (has been named to the team)
Team Slovakia: D Martin Marincin (has been named to the team)
Team Sweden: D Oscar Klefbom (has been named to the team)

Team Canada and Team Czech will play their preliminary round games in Edmonton, the Swedes, Latvians and Slovaks will be in Calgary. The tournament gets underway on Boxing Day. My source for the above info is elite prospects and please let me know of any errors or omissions. The schedule of games is here.

From what I can tell, the following eligible Oiler prospects did not make their national teams:

G Samu Perhonen (not named to team Finland)
F Travis Ewanyk (not named to team Canada)
D Dillon Simpson (not named to team Canada)
D Jeremie Blain (not named to team Canada)
L Drew Czerwonka (not named to team Canada)

It's going to be a very interesting WJ's for Oiler fans, with four quality D prospects on display. Tyler Bunz should see some action if he makes Team Canada and Kristians Pelss will play a lot for his team.

Prospect #8: Curtis Hamilton

2011-12-04T18:52:00.000-07:00

Curtis Hamilton reminds me of the Montreal Canadiens of my youth. While my favorite team (Boston Bruins) would draft guys like Mike Bloom and Al Secord (basically Lucic types), the Habs would select a bunch of "two-way" forwards and a "checker" or two. Curtis Hamilton is a "Hab-type" prospect right from the Del Wilson playbook.

Winter 2011: #8

Summer 2011: #4

Winter 2010: #6

Summer 2010: #15

DRAFT DAY CHATTER

STU MACGREGOR: "An extremely smart player, a great two way player. Strong, has good size, works hard along the boards. Very strong on the puck, has good vision, very good penalty killer. A guy who plays hard and smart."

SMARMY BOSS: Hamilton played on the Blades top six for the most part. He's not a coke machine--he can score and he was a touted first rounder. Got injured in the WHL vs Russia game and missed the top prospects game due to that injury. Recovered from a second break just in time for the playoffs and played really well without much in the way of rust. A blatant hit from behind in the Brandon series seperated his shoulder and put an end to a disappointing injury filled season.

CENTRAL SCOUTING: "He has very good upside with all the tools. He's not an aggressive player by penalty minutes, but he finishes his checks in all areas and is very effective. Good size and skates very well, also. He's strong on both the penalty kill and the power play. You see him and just like what he brings to the table."

REDLINE REPORT: "If they still had the opt-in rule, his agent might tell him to wait until next year. Two broken collarbones adds some uncertainty. I was hoping he'd answer the questions this year I had about his somewhat soft style of play, but that didn't really happen this year. Has good hockey sense and some hands, but I can't decide if this guy could be a steal outside of the top 100 picks or too much of a risk. I think I'd just let some team with extra 3rd/4th round picks grab him."

BRUINS DRAFT WATCH: "Curtis Hamilton of the Saskatoon Blades suffered a nightmare, injury-plagued season with two collarbone breaks, the second of which ended his season just after the new year. Considered a wide-bodied winger with solid skills (OK skater, good shot, has a nose for the net) if not a high-end package of hockey tools, Hamilton is one of those guys who will drop because he simply didn't play enough in his draft season, but could end up being much better than a lot of the players who will be picked before him. If he's there early in the fourth round when Boston's pick (via Carolina in the Aaron Ward trade) comes around he'd be hard to pass up, because he fits the mold of what the B's are trying to do in terms of adding size, skill and scoring to the wings. He scored 20 goals in 58 games in 08-09, but only seven tallies in 26 contests this year, so Hamilton does not come without risk, and is why he will fall on draft day."

ISS: "Well rounded player who can provide offense and raise the intensity level when needed. Hamilton has a very good technical package and understands the game very well. A strong and aggressive forechecker who can really fire the puck, Hamilton struggled with some bad luck and injuries this year which really affected his production. Hamilton is honest and hard working with the ability to play in all situations and against all types of players. He is hard on the puck and rarely backs down from battles for pucks or space and isn’t afraid to hold his ground after the whistle. Hamilton is very good at drawing defenders and then getting the puck to the net and then driving hard to the net on his own for rebounds or to create space for his teammates."

Hamilton followed up his injury plagued draft season with an outstanding year in the WHL. Here's the breakdown by discipline:

Overall: 62, 26-56-82 +48

PP: 62, 6-18-24

PK: 62, 3-5-8

EV: 62, 17-33-50

Those numbers tell us Hamilton played a lot in all three areas. After a disappointing playoff run with the Saskatoon Blades (who've never won the WHL championship but have been to the finals several times), Hamilton signed a contract with the Edmonton Oilers and prepared to start his professional career in OKC.

It's been a slow progression for Hamilton so far in the American Hockey League. He's played in 17 of the club's first 23 games and has not (until recently) been a regular option to play with the top end veteran forwards. Hamilton's boxcars (1-5-6 +1) have been helped by increased playing time after the Teemu Hartikainen injury (1-2-3 +2 in his last 5 games).

He has played some on the PP (3 PP assists) so seems to be getting some results when the opportunity arises. Hamilton has been playing most often recently with Gilbert Brule and Josh Green and has seen action with AHL veteran Ryan Keller and Mark Arcobello. If Hamilton can get quality playing time at EVs and on the PP with that group while Hartikainen and Omark are out, the numbers will come.

OKC Barons PBP man Jim Byers told me in mid-November that Hamilton had been in and out of the lineup at times and was "waiting his turn" with few special teams options. Byers said Hamilton was "feeling his way" into the lineup through mid-November. Since that time, Hamilton has played 7 games and is 1-2-3 +3. What's more, 11 of his 19 shots on the season have come during that time. Although we don't really know the TOI totals, all indications are that Hamilton is getting more opportunities since the injuries.

Curtis Hamilton is a quality prospect. The Oilers are producing some very good talent and have worked hard at procuring solid talent for the AHL team over the last couple of seasons. The men in his way are veterans like Josh Green, Mark Arcobello, Gilbert Brule and Ryan Keller. Phil Cornet, new hire Tristan Grant and fellow 2010 draftee Tyler Pitlick are also in the mix and of course injured (Hartikainen, Omark) players and callups (O'Marra) are part of the equation.

As for the top 20, Hamilton's slide shouldn't be viewed as a negative. The gap between Hartikainen at #4 and the player at #11 isn't wide, with most of the group interchangeable. Hamilton has done nothing to suggest he is not a quality prospect, and the things we worried about with this player (injuries) have not been a factor since he was drafted 18 months ago.

#7 Prospect: Martin Gernat

2011-12-04T09:19:00.001-07:00

Martin Gernat moves up this list based on an exceptional WHL debut and a scouting report that suggests he has a wide range of skills. Martin Gernat could be a draft bargain we talk about forever.

Winter 2011: #7
Summer 2011: #19

The legend of Martin Gernat began right after the 2011 draft’s second day. The Oilers included a major item in their talking points: they had Gernat in their top 35 overall for the 2011 draft. We know scouting departments are prone to hyperbole, but the Oilers brass stood by the statement after taking him in the 5th round (#122 overall) in June.

Redline scout Radim Jelinek: Gernat is a smooth skater with fluid stride and decent footwork for his size. Has very good vision and hands, moves the puck well, handles the puck with confidence making solid decision with puck. Likes to join the rush regularly and shows good instinct in sliding from the point into scoring positions. Just started developing physical play in his game, still very inconsistent using his body, needs to play aggressive, physical game all the time. When he uses it then he is tough to beat 1 on 1, angles forwards to the outside, tights forward up at the boards, hits hard. Lacks strength right now and still growing but has frame to fill it out. D-zone coverage is still very average, needs to read the play better defensively, improve positional play and play much tighter game. Very raw but I like his progress throughout the season and see some similar things in his game as in Martin Marincin´s. He is far from him as Marincin was first rounder in my eyes while Gernat is later-round pick but upside is there.

Kirk Luedeke: Slovakia’s best defender has excellent size (6-5) and good mobility for such a big kid. He’s fluid in his movements and still a little gangly, but had a couple of memorable plays where he jumped in from the point to get a good shot off, but was denied by Gibson. He was burned on a couple of missed coverages, but overall, was one of Slovakia’s better players in a thrashing. Lack of physical play and strength is his biggest shortcoming right now, but he has the kind of projectable upside that makes him a solid sleeper for the 2011 draft.

Stu MacGregor: Watched Gernat a lot. He’s a big guy, skates extremely well, 6’4″, still quite
slim, passes the puck very well. Really quite excited about what he might be able to bring.

Gernat has a wide range of skills. He boasts size, skating, skill, passing and a good shot among them, plus he’s a physical defender when required (took a fairly brutal checking from behind penalty Thursday night). He’s a “rangy” defender from the Dale Rolfe-Jacques Laperriere family tree and plays with confidence. His monthly splits are worth talking about.

September: 3, 3-3-6 +3
October: 12, 3-9-12 +5
November: 11, 0-4-4 +7
December: 1, 0-2-2 +3
Overall: 27, 6-18-24 +18
PP: 27, 2-7-9
PK, 27, 0-0-0
EV, 27, 4-11-15

Gernat is tied for 6th in rookie scoring, tied for 5th in scoring among defenders. His downturn in November owed to returning soldiers and less time on special teams, but he’s been a member of the top 2 pairings for the entire season.

Since this is a somewhat unusual choice at #7, I felt it might be an idea to give my reasons for it. My top 20 holds “wide range of skills” as the most valuable of all traits among prospects. Gernat isn’t reliant on offensive numbers for this ranking, and he can play defense in a very good junior league–maybe the best one.

Gernat’s size (6.05, 191) and speed make him a very interesting defensive prospect. That kind of resume alone could mean a Matt Greene career for this young man. However, I think there’s more to his game, enough offense and defense to play some special teams minutes and play what the kids today call “top 4″ minutes at the highest levels. I watched him closely this past Thursday night and he’s effective without the puck, very long player and strong for his age.

Gernat is not the most certain prospect left on the list, but he has more potential than the 2-way AHL forwards (Pitlick, Hamilton), the other WHL defenseman likely to play in the NHL (Musil) and the tall tree in OKC. I had to establish in my own mind that Gernat’s potential made him enough of a prospect to leap the young men listed above. I’m satisifed he’s bona fide. Martin Gernat is a quality NHL prospect. The rest is up to the Hockey Gods. Godspeed young man. We need you yesterday.

G27 Flames at Oilers

2011-12-03T09:21:00.003-07:00

Ryan Jones had a night to remember last night, as he was a major player in a big third period comeback for the Edmonton Oilers. Jones has 9 goals currently, tied for 34th in the NHL. I can show these numbers aren't sustainable, but what is?

Entering this NHL season, Jones had scored 33 NHL goals on 251 shots. That's 13.5 per cent, which is an excellent total. Not Craig Simpson, but 13.5 would keep you in the league a long time. This year, Jones is shooting at 22.5%, which would rank him in the top 170 seasons of all-time (he is tied for 162nd this morning). Jones is a mature player (27) but we don't have seven seasons to look back on as evidence of his shooting ability. His college numbers were very good and he's finding the range in the NHL, pushing his totals higher.

Is Ryan Jones on track for a 30-goal season? His 22.5% shooting percentage says no. However, his underlying numbers--the same numbers that told us a year ago he had extreme luck on his side and to be wary of his future--show him to be winning the day despite a horrific zone start (38.3% OFF) and playing with the Dixie Dregs.
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Young Gagner is slowly but surely climbing out of the early season hole that had Oiler fans wondering what went wrong. Samwise is now at the outer edge of the offensive forwards in 5x5/60.

Ryan Smyth 3.49
Jordan Eberle 3.38
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.44
Ales Hemsky 2.35
Ryan Jones 2.30
Taylor Hall 2.10
Shawn Horcoff 1.80
Sam Gagner 1.29

For those wondering about RNH's total, his 9.15/60 at 5x4 ranks him second among NHL regulars so far this season. That kid is a wonder, especially what he's doing as a rookie with the man advantage.

*all advanced stats courtesy behind the net.ca, nhl-reference and nhl.com.
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Last night's win was important for clearance. Should the Oilers beat the Flames tonight--certainly possible but not a certainty--they would enjoy a 9-point cushion on the Pine Island Lodge for the Aged. Although the Iginla's would have two games in hand, that's still a nice gap.

I don't think this team makes the playoffs, they're bleeding too many losses that should be wins. However, I also think that my summer prediction (13th in the west) will miss the mark based on their quality of play almost 30 games into the year. 10th in the conference? Seems reasonable.
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During the reasonable expectations series, I had the Oilers scoring 223 goals and allowing 247. Currently, they are 73-66 (average NHL team is 68-68). Can they sustain it? If the Oilers continue at their goal scoring rate, they'll end up around 230 goals and their GA would be 208.
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Nation Radio is on the air again this afternoon noon to 2 Edmonton time (Team 1260, click on the icon). I read questions from this blog, Oilers Nation, twitter (ItsNationRadio and Lowetide_) and you can also email nationradio@theteam1260.com if you'd like. Best questions are from you.

Jason Gregor host of the Jason Gregor Show each weekday afternoon on Team 1260. Jason had some interesting takes this week--especially on Ales Hemsky--and we'll talk about that plus the importance of tonight's HNIC BOA.
Kent Wilson will be by to tell us the name of the basement underwear blogger that caused Jay Feaster's gaunch to get tied in such a big knot. Kent will also tell us just how good Blake Comeau is and we'll argue over tonight's game.
Dean Belanger from Jets Nation. Dean will discuss the emerging Evander Kane, how the Jets are winning these games (close and not so close) and give us an overview on the state of Canada's newest NHL team.
Thomas Drance from Canucks Army. I want some answers on the Bobby Luongo item, it seems crazy to trade either goalie with the billion dollar man looking wobbly. I'll ask about Burrows, Raymond, injuries and waking up from the Stanley run sleep.

I'll have a couple of other surprises, so please tune in at noon today.

G26 Jackets at Oilers

2011-12-02T07:37:00.000-07:00

The legend of RNH is beginning to find voice through stories. The other day on tsn, it was mentioned that NAS coach Barry Trotz chastised veteran Mike Fisher by saying "you know he's outplaying you!" to which the veteran replied "you know he's pretty good, right?"

RNH is among the top 5 scorers in the NHL. Lordy.

In the thread below there was some gentle chiding for one of the C&B folks re:RNH but the truth is that pretty much everyone was wrong about him and parsing "how" wrong begins in miles as opposed to inches. I picked him to play all year in the NHL but big whoop, the kid is soon to pass my reasonable projection in the next few weeks.

We can, as a group, agree on one thing: The Nuge was undersold by the scouting people. Either they really didn't see this or they didn't believe what they saw. I also think his EV TOI totals might have been very revealing and would like to once again suggest that the NHL fund all junior leagues in Canada with the technology required to procure their TOI totals. And then publish them, you dummies. Jeebus. The NHL has a massive audience for this kind of thing and holds on to the "Clarence Campbell recipe cards" technology like grim death. Honestly. What a bunch of idiots.
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We shouldn't compare RNH to 99 or even Doug Weight, because despite modern scouting and all those eyes this young man doesn't have an obvious comparable. Sublime skill, a worker on the back check, apparently as young as his age and running on pure hockey intelligence.

Stand back, we don't know how big this kid is going to get. The early returns are breathtaking.
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The Blue Jackets have righted the ship in net and are much improved over their last 10 games. This club isn't the one that sunk like a stone at the beginning of the year, and for an Oiler team that can't get out of its own way lately this is an extremely loseable hockey game.

The CBJ and CGY games in the next 48 hours are very important. Lose them both and this team will be pushing 13-15 in the conference. A goal from any line that doesn't include the good Ryan's would be nice.

Sail On, St. Sebastian Arrow

2011-12-01T12:04:00.000-07:00

Mike Grier retired today. A fine Oiler winger over several seasons, we could use four like him today. Sail on Mike Grier. We didn't forget you, never will.

#6 Prospect: Tyler Bunz

2011-12-01T07:21:00.000-07:00

Winter 2011: #6
Summer 2011: #9
Winter 2010: #20
Summer 2010: NR

Edmonton might have a good one here. Tyler Bunz has been tracking very well since his draft day and might be the rarest of all things: a starting goaltender drafted by the Oilers.

I'm no goaltending expert but have been following the Oilers long enough to spot new trends. Whereas the Moog-Fuhr draft era was a matter of hitting a big fly twice in quick succession, most of Oiler history is filled with failed G prospects drafted from the back of the cupboard. The Devan Dubnyk draft--a first rounder who has progressed to the point where he is heir apparent--is highly unusual in Oilers history.

I believe Tyler Bunz represents a few "new trends" for the Oilers. Let's begin with the goalie himself describing his style:

"I think my size is definitely a strength for myself, I can move well for a big guy and love to battle-I never give up on the puck. I like to play the puck as well, I feel it keeps me focused on the game more. I need to improve on rebound control and being more consistent.

Next, let's look at his year over year progress.

SP's over the years

Age 16: .886
Age 17: .898
Age 18: .919
Age 19: .923 (so far)

Bunz' current SP ranks him 3rd in the WHL behind the starters for powerhouse Kootenay and Tri-Cities. He finished 2nd one year ago. Oil Kings color commentator Kent Simpson talked with me this past Saturday, and discussed his quick glove, mobility and ability to handle the puck. Bunz is an athlete, very capable and added to his size and resume should be considered a very good goaltending prospect. Bruce McCurdy posted an excellent interview with the young prospect yesterday.

I'd like to take a couple of minutes and talk about Oilers goalie coach Frederic Chabot. I think his influence in the organization has been growing since the day he was hired, and it is having a dynamic impact on the organization at this position. In the interview above we can see some innovation (young Bunz told McCurdy "I’ve learned from watching video with Oilers goalie coach Fred Chabot" and the draft template (big kids with athletic ability) seems to be following a specific form.

I don't want to overstate it, but there seems to be a (wait for it) plan in place for procurement of goaltenders. Since hiring Chabot summer 2009, Edmonton has drafted size. Bunz (6.01, 203) in 2010 and Samu Perhonen (6.05, 184) plus Frans Tuohimaa (6.02, 178) are at least average in size and clearly have some development ahead. The scouting reports mention athletic skaters with projectable frames and quick reflexes.

We'll see, and let's not start thinking about the Oilers being a goaltending factory, but Tyler Bunz is on track as a prospect and has certainly gone well beyond his draft number.

G 25 Wild at Oilers

2011-11-30T07:32:00.002-07:00

Sometimes my kids will ask me what it was like to grow up in the 60s. I'll say things like "well we road bikes a lot and drank cokes and sometimes for fun we'd push a tire down the road." This is followed by much laughter.

Since my children sometimes frequent this blog, I offer as proof this photo of ~~Robert Zimmerman~~ Bob Dylan* pushing a tire down the road. The photo also offers proof that "littering" isn't a modern invention.

The Oilers are once again in need of a win to keep pace with the very competitive NW division. It's funny, the Canucks are the king of the hill but long time contender Calgary is off the pace. You'd think Minnesota would be the likely candidate to slide up the division, with Edmonton and Colorado waiting for a better tomorrow.

This season, Minnesota is the strongest team in the division so far. Their GF-GA numbers suggest some mirage (despite being 57-53 GF/GA overall, they are 10 goals better than league average in GA) but the wins and points keep on coming.

Minnesota is in 1st in the conference this morning, the Oilers are tied with Nashville way back in 10th. However, the difference is 5 points and should EDM win tonight it is down to 3. Oilers staying within 7 to 9 points of the top all season (should they do it) would be a clear indicator this team has made progress.

However, a long losing streak would effectively snap the chord on the season and put coach Tom Renney's future in doubt. At least a little. The organization has stated in many ways that improvement in a real way is the goal. Using last year as a line in the sand (they were 8-12-4 after 24 by my count a year ago) their current 12-10-2 is real progress. Gotta keep the train rolling.
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Lines in practice yesterday had Gagner on the 2line and Paajarvi back down on the 3line. If he doesn't shave those sideburns I don't know what'll happen. Coach Renney will probably go with NK tonight, Dubnyk's sideburns have been getting a little long too.
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In the last 10 games, Jordan Eberle's shooting percentage is 26.3 and he's scoring from Mike Bossy places. I know he will come back to earth sometime, but he sure looks like a 30+ goal scorer right now. Is 25 a reasonable number based on his first quarter? The kid hasn't disappointed one time, not even close.
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The new blog is up, I'm working on a few things. If you get a chance, have a quick look at things, any input is welcome.

*My daughter has informed me Bob Dylan only allows the President of the United States to call him that other name. Apologies to Mr. Zimmerman.

Oilers Recall O'Marra

2011-11-29T16:55:00.000-07:00

Oilers recalled Ryan O'Marra today. He's a checking center and a guy who has spent a lot of PK time in the minors. He's 20, 4-4-8 +5 but wasn't the callup of choice among Oiler fans. What happened?

Teemu Hartikainen would have been my choice, but he's out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury (by the way, Taylor Hall's injury is now 2 to 4 weeks). I mentioned the other day that there were several worthy candidates in OKC and the choice of O'Marra is curious based on box cars.

Some possible reasons they recalled another checking C:

This move was made as a reward for all the hard work. As you may remember, O'Marra spent a long time in the outhouse with this organization after coming over in the Ryan Smyth trade.
The organization is serious about players spending years in OKC before getting a callup. This was a featured item in the first Oil Change episode this fall, the organization feeling they needed to impress on young players that the AHL was part of the plan.
They aren't going to use Sam Gagner at center in the Renney regime.
Anton Lander is going to move to the wing for awhile
A center is injured and we haven't been told about it.
A trade is coming (hey, at least I'm consistent).
They aren't that high on Phil Cornet as an NHL player.
They are worried about Gilbert Brule's waivers.

However, I don't think it is any of that stuff. No, my theory is that Ryan O'Marra is getting this NHL shot as an agitator/fighter, and that if he is successful then someone else will get sent out. O'Marra has been adding fighting to his resume over the last year or so, and I'm convinced this is the reason he got the call.

#5 Prospect: Martin Marincin

2011-11-29T07:00:00.004-07:00

Winter 2011: #5

Summer 2011: #7

Winter 2010: #4

Summer 2010: #9

Martin Marincin is a dirty bugger. This isn't ordinarily celebrated on this blog, but it's part of his resume and so I wanted to discuss it. Marincin's famous WJ hit on the American Zucker was followed by another "incident" this fall in the WHL.

That's a filty hit, folks. Dangerous. Marincin's "range of skills" are the calling card here, and those skills are so difficult to acquire I believe Marincin is clearly a better prospect than the offensive defenders (Blain, Davidson, Gernat) and the defensive defenders (Teubert, Bigos, Musil).

I'm saying he could lose a lot of his offense (by not playing on the PP) and still make the NHL as a useful player. And if he delivers on all fronts, he might end up being the best, most complete defenseman drafted into the system since Jeff Petry.

There are by my count 6 strong candidates for this slot, so don't be too upset if your player isn't here. I do have my reasons for posting Marincin here and will list them, but the entire top 10 this winter is excellent.

Here are my reasons for ranking Marincin top 5.

He has a wide range of skills.
He is playing for a very poor hockey team. Last I checked, Marincin was +2 on a team that is -12 overall. His number is the best on the team among defenders.
Prince George coach Dean Clark: “You know who he reminds me of is when Alexander Edler came into our league with Kelowna. I think he’s better than Alexander was with Kelowna and look what Alexander turned into in the NHL."
He has been described as a man among boys at times this season, although the boxcars aren't as impressive as one year ago.

Although his boxcars appear to be way off from a year ago, a closer examination of Marincin's even strength totals suggests he's on track and the team is off the rails offensively.

2010-11: 67, 6-18-24 .358
2011-12: 22, 1-6-7 .318

The PP numbers are way off and that's a concern. However, we know that most defensemen don't drive the PP bus and the scouting reports have him playing an effective 2-way game (outside of the period just after returning from suspension). PG is averaging 2.33GF this season, down heavily (3.58 a year ago). I don't think it's reasonable to suggest anything Marincin is doing would be responsible for that kind of dropoff.

Martin Marincin will play for Slovakia at the WJ's in Alberta this Christmas. It will be the third appearance at the tournament for the 19-year old defender.

Dan O'Connor, Cougars pbp man (courtesy ironsight): "Even though he didn’t score any goals or put up any helpers, Martin Marincin was a man among boys through spurts of Saturday’s game with Kelowna. Marincin proved once again that when he wants to, he can be the most effective and lethal player on the ice. He’s fast, strong, smart and skilled, and has the ability to take a game over. If Marincin puts forth a similar performance tonight against Kootenay, the Cougars will have a great chance to win."

G24 Predators at Oilers

2011-11-28T07:04:00.000-07:00

This is Jimmy Page. Before the Yardbirds and before the New Yardbirds and before the session work he was just a kid trying to play Rumble. Everyone starts at the beginning.

Taylor Hall's injury gives coach Renney a chance to shuffle the deck and elevate one of the bottom sixers into a feature role. Now, he sure doesn't want to (Hall's a better player than the men available to replace him) but for at least a few games (more likely longer) one of the lesser lights gets a chance on the big stage.

As a fan, I'm hoping it's Paajarvi. 15 goals a year ago, zippo this season. If he spends three weeks in the top six and scores a goal a week, maybe his confidence shoots up and he rescues his season.

As an observer of Tom Renney, I think Anton Lander may get the chance. Just as coach MacT used to elevate Toby Petersen, so too this coach appears to trust Lander already and that's a huge factor. Lander's math suggests he's a more likely candidate to get shipped to OKC and Paajarvi, but coach Renney has chosen Lander over many others this year and that may continue.

Finally, Ryan Jones. He'd be a strong temptation for coach Renney, as Jones has played the exact role required earlier in the season--and with aplomb. Whatever I may or may not believe about Jones on this roster, he's played very well this season.

Either way, this is the second injury in 1.5 seasons for Taylor Hall and at some point we're going to have to begin factoring in "games lost per season" into his equation. With Hemsky on the other wing, these "opportunities" are going to keep appearing.

Beginning tonight, we get insight into how the coach feels about the young forwards not named RNH, Hall and Eberle.

#4 Prospect: Teemu Hartikainen

2011-11-27T15:15:00.000-07:00

Winter 2011: #4

Summer 2011: #5

Winter 2010: #17

Summer 2010: #13

Winter 2009: #9

Summer 2009: #7

Winter 2008: #18

Summer 2008: #19

The most obvious signs that the Edmonton Oilers are deep in pro forwards are the young men in OKC. Among them are Linus Omark (injured and inelgible for the top 20) and five members of the Winter top 20. Teemu Hartikainen is the top ranked forward from the minors, and I doubt he spends much longer in the AHL.

Teemu Hartikainen impressed Oiler fans during a cup of coffee with the big club late last season. He arrived at training camp in the fall blocked by several summer acquisitions (notably Ryan Smyth) and ended up being a late cut from training camp. In OKC so far, there's been plenty of coverage about a healthy scratch, but digging a little deeper shows some very nice things for our latest Finn phenom:

4 powerplay goals already have him tied for 2nd on the team and tied for 12th in the entire AHL.
60 shots on goal in 19 games is a solid total, in the league's top 20.
This from a player who traditionally begins slowly.
Hartikainen is not in today's OKC lineup. He was injured early in the 2nd period last night when he was tripped and slid awkwardly across the ice into the boards. He never returned to the game and is out with a shoulder injury. He might be in Edmonton tomorrow as a callup if not for the injury.

Hartikainen on Hartikainen: "Last weekend our head coach Todd Nelson benched me because of a bad game I played previously. I have to admit that it felt pretty effin' bad to hear just before the match that I've been benched for one weaker game. But it is what it is. Of course I had a discussion with our coach where we went through the elements of our game plan and personal expectations that weren't met. While I don't agree with getting benched, I do think our coach has a point here. I got a relaxing day off after tough start. I've had a good few days to think and concentrate and I surely won't let this happen again. This has improved me mentally in the long run."
Hartikainen on what he has to do in order to become an NHL regular: "Just play a simple game. Tip the puck and hone my skills a little more so when I go back there I'm not coming back (down here) anymore," he said. "They told me when they call me up they want me to be a top-six forward, score the goals here, get some points and be one of the leaders."
Todd Nelson on Hartikainen's progress: "It's coming alright. Play (well) away from the puck, stopping and starting, managing the puck. Those are the biggest things for Harti that he has to work on. When he got sent down he was disappointed. It took him a few days to get over it but he's better now. He's here, he's working hard, he's having fun and he's only going to get better and better."

Hartikainen is on pace for 30+ goals this season. My guess is he doesn't make it (injury aside). I expect he'll spend at least a portion of the 11-12 season in Edmonton, and this time when he gets here Teemu Hartikainen will be an Oiler to stay.

10-11 OKC 66, 17-25-42 .64
11-12 OKC 19, 8-5-13 .68

#3 Prospect: Oscar Klefbom

2011-11-27T08:35:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #3

Summer 2011: #2

Pre Draft Story

Redline Report: Klefbom is a real Red Line favorite. He's certainly the most overlooked of the top prospects, but is the best pure passer of the bunch, and his skating ranks only behind Murphy. He already makes pro style passes — crisp and with touch — and excels at breaking the trap with tremendous stretch passes through the neutral zone, showing great vision. He was also the natural leader on Sweden's national under-18 team. All this comes wrapped in a 6-3, 196-pound package, and Klefbom has really stepped up the physical aspect of his game over the last 12 months. At Red Line, we believe he might ultimately become the best all-around balance of offensive upside and physical strength in this year's class.
TSN (Grant McCagg): Captained Sweden to a silver medal at the U-18 championships, and appeared in 23 games for Farjestad in the SEL at 17 years of age. His stock rose as the season went on, culminating with his strong play at the U-18's. Strengths - High character player who did it all for Sweden at the U-18's, considered a warrior with tremendous leadership qualities. Good size and strength, reads the play well and will jump into the rush, good vision and passing skills, good compete level, likes to play physically. Weaknesses - Has a clumsy skating style, needs to work on quickness and lower body strength. NHL Upside - May develop into a top three NHL defenceman who takes care of his own end and sees some time on the second powerplay unit.
Corey Pronman: "Oscar Klefbom is a very toolsy defensive prospect with considerable upside if everything goes right. He’s an above-average skater who at times flashes plus. Klefbom gets up to top speed very quickly with a powerful stride which lets him take off and jump into the rush and get back into defensive position if the play gets behind him. Klefbom’s puck skills are solid-average as he can carry the puck at a notable level when moving at top speed. He’s a decent passer, and while he has the potential to be an above-average distributor, the hockey sense and vision doesn’t seem to be there enough for him to be that player. He has a decent shot, although I haven’t noticed much bad or good in that aspect of his game. Klefbom has a good frame that has filled out nicely for a player born in late July at around 6’3″, 200 lbs., but he doesn’t really use his body much from a physical perspective though he can win some battles. I’ve also seen him make bad decisions when being physically pressured. Hockey sense is Klefbom’s major liability as it grades from 35-40. He doesn’t see the ice well, takes too long with decisions, his defensive game is suspect and he can get too overzealous at times with his offensive rushes and pinches.”
Kirk Luedeke: “Sweden’s top puck rusher is Brodin’s teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he’s been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin’s equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he’s on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he’s not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.”

You can see why the Oilers liked Klefbom, he's a "perfect fit" for an organization that badly needs defenders with size, speed and a wide range of skills.

Stu MacGregor: "A big, great skating defenseman. A solid, two-way guy who moves the puck intelligently and competes really hard. We were really pleased he was there (with the 19th pick). We wanted to get a defenseman, especially one with size who can move."

He was listed as 6.03, 203 around draft day, which is a good size for an 18-year old defender. Klefbom served notice with an effective 2010 Ivan Hlinka and then delivered well in all areas during his draft season (10-11)

SEL 23, 1-1-2 8:50TOI
WJ 6, 1-3-4

This year, Klefbom has been playing a little more in the SEL per game and hasn't yet registered a point. Klefbom has posted crooked numbers at lower levels this season:

SEL 14, 0-0-0 11:19TOI
J20 10, 0-3-3

He's back playing again and he's likely to play a big role for Sweden at the WJ's over Christmas. Oiler fans will get a chance to see him play up close, and get an idea about how the rangy blueliner goes about his business.

With Klefbom's skills and ability to push the puck up the ice expertly, it isn't out of the question to project him as a 20 point NHL defender eventually. Should he earn a powerplay opportunity, that number would of course matriculate northward.

INJURY

Oscar Klefbom has been injured three times since September 1st. Martin Lunden gave us the details on the first injury:

Klefbom was unlucky enough to get cut on his thigh by an ice skate, the wound was sewn with ten stitches, and when the stitches were removed there was an infection. Now Klefbom is on penicillin which also prohibits him from playing.

This was followed by a head injury during a rough practice a couple of weeks later. Again Lunden gives us the information:

Klefbom got a shoulder-tackle to his chin (during a tough practice four days ago) which caused him losing his helmet and bumping his head on the ice without protection and suspicions were that the hit might have left Klefbom with a concussion.

As it turned out, Klefbom was fine. However, in mid-November Klefbom did sustain a concussion in a game against Russia. Lunden was on top of this story as well, via Finnish report Sami Hoffrén.

Klefbom was hit to the head by a Russian forward and he had to leave the game. Didn’t play in the tournament after that hit. I assume Klefbom suffered a concussion.

He's back in action now. However, after suffering at least one concussion I'd say that injuries are enough of a concern for us to consider Klefbom less of a "blue chip" prospect than he was on draft day. Still the best defenseman in the system, and the concussion isn't a giant cloud over his future.

It is a down arrow. That's why he's #3 this time.

G23 Oilers at Avalanche

2011-11-26T07:36:00.002-07:00

The Edmonton Oilers are less wildly unpredictable than they were awhile ago. Whereas early in the year we had no idea which team was going to show up, these days we can wander through our afternoons thinking the club has a legit chance to win every night. The Oilers are one of the feel good stories in the entire NHL 11-12

Late in yesterday's thread, Traktor posted "was Smyth this good the last time he was an Oiler? His board-work can only be described as art" and my brain got rolling and damned if it isn't an excellent question.

In 00-01, he went 82, 31-39-70 +10 on a team that fnished +15 overall. That was the year he was with Weight and Guerin to start the year and then when Carter came over they ran with that trio (sans Guerin who had been traded) before Comrie came up at New Year's. Anyway, Smyth was golden that year.

It doesn't matter, Smyth is Smyth and all the memories are good ones (save July 2006 through Feb 2007 and that wasn't his fault). I don't know that he's ever played this well, but my memory isn't what it used to be back in the day. Perhaps the younger set will have an idea.
--

Colorado is 2-7-1 in their last 10 and the Oilers aren't much better (4-6-0) but have been making steady progress after a losing streak early in the month. Avs are in dangerous territory, just 2 points clear of Calgary (heh heh) but I kind of feel Colorado is a sleeping giant. Duchene, Stastny, Landeskog--these two teams are going to be battling forward sets for a decade. It'll be fun, unless you're Calgary.

I thought Jonathan Willis did a splendid job grading the game yesterday. His report is here.
--

Nation Radio hits the air today at noon on Team 1260. Among the scheduled guests:

Corey Pronman, NHL Draft Expert for Hockey Prospectus.
Scott Taylor from Jets Nation. Taylor has been bringing it since joining the Nations Network and will back up his words with more words.
Kent Simpson from the Edmonton Oil Kings (color commentator). Kent will give us some insight into an interesting Oil King team and how they look this season and we'll get updates on the usual suspects (Gernat, Pelss, Reinhart, bonus Bunz).
Tom Benjamin from Canucks Corner. Tom is a wise observer of the game, so we'll cast our questions a little wider than just Canucks, but there will be plenty of time for discusiion about the suddenly surging Vancouver squad.
Kent Wilson from the Nations Network. Kent will discuss the Flames pickup of Blake Comeau (a wise move) and we'll have another look under the hood of this year's Flames.

Emails: nationradio@theteam1260.com
Twitter: @itsnationradio or lowetide_
I read comments and questions posted here and at ON.

Hope you can tune in.

G22 Oilers at Wild

2011-11-25T07:39:00.001-07:00

Ryan Whitney is like a hockey version of Halley's comet in that he appears every 75 games.

Sam Gagner looks like he's turning a corner, and it paid off in a small way with that very nice pass to the Russian for a late goal the other night. Gagner: "There are times when the ankle still hurts. What I'm struggling with is the tape on my ankle. You want it tight enough to give you protection but not so tight you can't skate. After the second period in Nashville, I retaped it and it felt way better in the third."

Coach Renney is making today's game a big one--more than it already is--in an effort to get the Oilers on a winning streak. Edmonton has been losing in Minny since Lou Nanne had hair--well, not that long ago but for a long, long time. I don't think there's much to it, Lemaire that freak poisioned the water hole and forced all offensive players to become work drones. This version of the Wild is 8 games over .500 and leads the conference, and is being led by Koivu, Cullen, that rat fink PM Bouchard and some silly good goaling by Josh Harding and Niklas Backstrom. Their no-name defense seems to be holding up well.

The Minneapolis sound won the world over long ago, but it's a giant sucking sound for the Oildrop. Maybe Hoppy and the wunderkids can win the day.

#2 Prospect: Anton Lander

2011-11-24T16:31:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #2

Summer 2011: #6

Winter 2010: #9

Summer 2010: #8

Winter 2009: #10

Summer 2009: #10

The major story regarding Anton Lander broke in the early days of summer camp: his skating, long considered a small negative, had improved greatly.

Oilers Skating and Skills Coach Steve Serdachny: Anton has had incredible development. He's made incredible strides in his skating and his quickness, he has so many great intangible qualities and a fantastic individual. Foot speed, mobility, efficiency have been a part of his program and something he's been working on. This guy is a dedicated learner and working hard to become an Edmonton Oiler.
Stu MacGregor at summer camp: “His effort is so consistent, every shift. The best way to put it is he works smart. He’s really intelligent, good on faceoffs. That really stood out for us. His skating may have held him back from being a first-round pick, but it’s improved

10-11 Boxcars: 49, 11-15-26 in the Swedish Elite League.
Desjardins NHL equivalency: 82, 14-20-34
His faceoff numbers in the SEL were just below 50%.
Lander was 28th in the entire SEL in time-on-ice last season at age 19.

Lander arrived at camp and kept impressing the coaching staff and the fanbase. His impressive speed married to solid 2-way play in pre-season meant he was in the mix for an NHL job at center; when Sam Gagner was injured late September it was Lander (ahead of Brule, O'Marra and others) who won the 4line job for the Oilers.

Anton Lander has not delivered a strong season at the NHL level. Oiler fans will know the 4line has been a dead zone so far this season. Blaming Lander for it is ridiculous, but the math facts tell the story of his season:

5x5/60: 0.33 (11th among forwards)
Ozone %: 50 (8th among forwards)
Qual Comp: -0.083 (10th among forwards)
Qual Team: -0.425 (12th among forwards)
CorsiRel: -22.5 (13th among forwards)

There's no real way to look at those stats and create a positive spin. Lander and men like Lennart Petrell, Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk have been bleeding all over everything. There are some things we can point to as "less than disastrous" including Dennis King scoring chances (as compiled by Jonathan Willis) but the math suggests he should be in OKC. Coach Renney's choices for the 4th line have been curious this year, and Lander is included in the group.

Lander is getting 9:20 EV every night plus a buck forty on the PK. Among rookie forwards, that number ranks 8th in the entire NHL. Edmonton owns the 7th best PK in the NHL, and Lander is the 5th F option on the Oilers--ahead of Lennart Petrell. His faceoff percentage is 40.7 in 150 sorties, and we know that's a pretty good number for a rookie.

Anton Lander is an excellent prospect. His improved speed and quickness were so good he won a job in the NHL, and he may one day flourish in the role. His performance so far this season is predictable, and unfortunate in that he should be in OKC building momentum. I don't see a reason to punish him for it. Anton Lander is the second best prospect in the system.

#1 Prospect: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

2011-11-23T17:00:00.001-07:00

Winter 2011: #1

Summer 2011: #1

Pre Draft Story

Ken Hitchcock: "My opinion on Nugent-Hopkins has changed ... last summer I thought he reminded me of Joe Sakic, but it's Pavel Datsyuk now. He strips people of the puck, he's crafty in high-traffic areas, he dishes well, he's got great patience with the puck."
NHL Central Scouting’s B.J. MacDonald: “(Nugent-Hopkins) has very good puck-handling capabilities. His on-ice awareness is very good. He's one of those guys that knows where everyone is and where they should be and where the puck should go . . . He can dish both right or left, either on his backhand or forehand with that kind of vision. But not just the vision, but the fact he can lay that puck between the skate boot and the skate blade -- that's hard to find.”
NHL Central Scouting’s Peter Sullivan: “A couple of people high up -- and not naming names -- said Hopkins has the best vision since No. 99 (Wayne Gretzky). That's the highest compliment you can get. But the other thing is the way he competes. He never takes a night off and he works as hard in his own end as he does in the offensive zone and that takes a special player with a special set of skills to do that.” ither one of those two guys (in ability), that's a pretty good thing."
Redline Report: Nugent-Hopkins has the highest offensive upside and is the most potent playmaker of the bunch. He'll struggle to handle the physicality of the NHL over a grueling 82-game season since his current walking around weight is a slightly built 163 pounds. But he is gritty and willing to battle in traffic and stand up for himself, so he'll eventually get there. One thing he has shown is a consistent ability to elevate his game at the biggest moments.
TSN (Grant McCagg): Had a slow start in terms of goal production, including going goalless in 13 games in October, but ended the 2010-11 season with 17 goals in his final 20 games after being cut from Canada's U-20 team. Strengths - high end skills, including amazing vision and agility. Quick elusive skater with superb edges. Soft hands and creative puck handler. Solid work ethic and character. Weaknesses - Needs to add some muscle to compete with NHL defencemen in tight quarters. More of a playmaker than a goal scorer, although he began showing more finish at season's end. NHL Upside - first-line center who draws comparisons to Pavel Datsyuk in terms of style.
Kirk Luedeke: Outstanding skater with explosive burst, top-end speed, excellent lateral agility and superb edgework. Shifty, with quick feet and the ability to accelerate rapidly over short spaces. Elite stickhandler; can make any play at top speed or in traffic when there isn't much time or space. Soft touch on the puck for on-target passes. Can thread the needle through a maze of skates and sticks to hit the open man. Lightning release with a bullet shot that is accurate. Will pick corners at will. Hides his release point well and confounds goalies with his ability to get the puck on net from just about anywhere. Off-the-charts hockey sense- puck follows him around the ice. Always in the middle of the action and makes quick cuts to open up room for his linemates. The most creative player in the draft and a deadly scorer with the man advantage. Makes everyone around him better. Leads by example with his hustle and work ethic. Never quits on the play. Will initiate contact and not afraid to take the hit to make the play. Good character kid- wants to be a leader and has game-breaking ability to put his team on his shoulders at any given time.

In writing the RNH RE this summer, I suggested "reasonable expectations" would be 63, 11-23-34 (.540). The problem with reasonable is that we assume everyone gets equal ice time, and history tells us junior TOI rates can vary wildly. There were reports that the Rebels were running lines equally at even strength, but who does that? I think one of the reasons the RE for RNH (82gp, 11-27-38 .464) is going to be off has to do with ice time. We need ice time totals for these kids. I know some rinks in the WHL track it, I've been told that it has been available to media from time to time. Either way, I've been reading some Tom Awad stuff and a few other things and may try to estimate ice time for next year's fun.

The other thing about RNH that we weren't absolutely clear about last winter: he's a complete player type. Ridiculous offensive ability owing mostly to insane creativity. He just sees stuff that others don't see. He also has a great work ethic getting back on the play, and makes heady plays in all three zones with or without the puck.

There are several areas in which RNH is outstanding already:

Tom Renney in October: “He’s doing a good job. On top of his points, our defensive structure isn’t lost on him.” 18-year olds from the WHL don't often get that kind of rating from an NHL coach. Don't be fooled by the lack of hypberbole--that's an NHL coach telling you the kid is soaking things up and then going out there and delivering. Music!
Steve Tambellini: “I think he's played well right from Day 1 of the regular season. People are focusing on the production and that's obvious, but I think what the coaching staff was impressed about right from rookie camp is his intelligence in the defensive zone. To play centre, that position in the NHL as a young person is quite a task at times.”
Brent Sutter: “He’s a very level-headed young man. He handles everything really well — very grown, very mature for his age. I’m happy for him. He’s a good young man, he’s a great young man, and that’s what makes him unique, too. Special player, special kid.”

THE WHO, BY NUMBERS

RNH's 2.41/60 at 5x5 ranks him 79th among NHL forwards who have played 5 games or more. Jonathan Toews had a 2.17/60 number at 5x5 during his rookie season, so RNH seems to be on a solid path. Although Toews was older than RNH as a rookie, their styles (C's with a nice range of skills) are similar enough for the comparable to have some merit despite the 12 month difference in age.
RNH's 8.34/60 at 5x4 ranks him 16th among NHL forwards who have played 10 games or more. Now that's an insane number, but the fact that the Oilers are using him as a major option for dishing on the PP--AND that his beautiful passes are being cashed by linemates--is an astounding portion of this early season. Rookies take a long time to impact NHL powerplays. Jonathan Toews 4.29/60 at 5x5 in his rookie season would seem to be a good "line in the sand" by season's end.

NHL teams are aware of RNH with his ability to make plays. He has been the target of opposition teams with hits and intimidation and it's very difficult for coach Renney to keep him protected on the road. In Dallas the other night, Brendan Morrow spent enormous amounts of time focusing on the rookie, at one point attempting a check at the blueline that backfired (and apparently injured the much bigger Dallas forward).

After 20 games, he's one of the Oiler players other clubs target. Perhaps that's the biggest compliment of all.

Matt

2011-11-23T07:38:00.001-07:00

Redline Report has their latest out online and Oiler fans should know two things: Griffin Reinhart and Matt Dumba are unlikely to be around in the middle of the first round next summer. Reinhart, who has been described as a possible Shea Weber-clone, is ranked #10 by Redline.

Dumba? #7 and rising. Redline: When you combine his exciting skills with the type of passion and intensity he displays, the potential is there for something special.

He's 6.0, 183 and eligible for the 2012 entry draft. Brendan Ross from dobber hockey offered this scouting report on him during the summer.

Ross: Dumba could be one of the best skaters in the entire 2012 draft class at this point as he possesses elite agility and can be extremely elusive. His offensive skills should definitely excite fantasy addicts in the near future but on the ice he is a fan favourite for his bone crushing hits earning him comparisons to former Red Deer Rebel Dion Phaneuf (good or bad). Dumba registered a remarkable 12 assists in six games for the Team Pacific at the U-17 WHC. Keep this exciting defenseman on your radar as I feel he could become one of the best offensive defensemen of the 2012 draft. Dumba’s defensive game is nothing to sneeze at either but his elite skating skills, great puck control and hard accurate shot are a rare combination. The Calgary-native’s rookie production of 15 goals, 26 points and 83 penalty minutes are an indication of his potential to eventually become a multi-cat stud.

Dumba's WHL progress offensively has been impressive year over year:

Age 15: 6, 0-2-2 -1
Age 16: 62, 15-11-126 +24
Age 17: 22, 7-11-18 +8

Craig Button reported he was brilliant at the Ivan Hlinka. There's a lot we don't know about this player, but every road loss gives the team a better chance to draft "in the range." I trust the Magnificent Bastard no matter where he picks (Eberle at 22? freaky scouting) but having a chance to call Dumba's name at the 2012 entry draft should be considered a long shot based on the NHL team's performance this season.

G21 Oilers at Predators

2011-11-22T07:40:00.000-07:00

The Oilers continue their tour through towns where wins go to die with a stop off in Nashville. The Preds have been on the road a lot since the start of the season and still rank among the top 4 teams in the conference. They are 6-1-3 in the last 10 and have opponents singing the sad songs all night long.

Nashville's defense is currently posting some unique plus minus numbers. Shea Weber (+19) and Ryan Suter (+15) lead the way--by a mile. Kevin Klein and Jonathan Blum (both -9) are joined by Francis Bouillon (-5) as the other regulars. It's a curious gap, suspect it'll close as the season wears on. Still, you can't argue with that top pairing.

I think this is crunch time for the summer statements by Steve Tambellini and Tom Renney about winning being the priority and playoffs being the goal. If true, then the 4line and the inexperienced D have to be altered right away. The Oilers don't have Linus Omark as a callup option, but Teemu Hartikainen could get the call and Magnus Paajarvi is a better player than he's shown this year.

The blue? Peckham-Petry, Chorney-Teubert. It's the hockey equivalent of getting 4 ab's in a hitter's park against the inconsistent spot starter. The young D are playing like Bob Sebra 1987.

G20 Oilers at Stars

2011-11-21T06:58:00.000-07:00

Ryan Smyth has done everything else this season, maybe he can find a W in Dallas. For Oiler fans Dallas may not be hell, but you can see if from there. Of all the places for Sheldon Souray to show up, deep in the heart of Texas would not have been first choice.

Since Marchant beat Moog the southerners have had the decided edge, and that edge has stretched over a long time. On the '06 run, I kept hoping that the Oilers would meet them in the playoffs (Colorado dispatched Dallas about the same time the Oilers were flushing Detroit) because that was one spring Dallas would have been in trouble.

I won't be cheering against Souray, the Oilers put themselves in the position of being the bad guy in that scenario long ago. However, I'll cheer like hell for the team to beat Dallas, and will vehemently refuse to acknowledge a feeling of impending doom even if the good guys go down 2 goals.

I honestly have no idea what to expect from the Oilers at this point. I think one of the teams will win and neither team will score 11. I think Dallas will score at least one special teams goal. After that, it's a blur.

Rookie scoring 11-12

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 19, 7-12-19
Craig Smith 19, 7-8-15
Luke Adam 20, 6-8-14
Matt Read 16, 8-5-13
Adam Henrique 15, 4-7-11

Oilers Top 12 F's (5x5/60 mins behind the net)

Ryan Smyth 3.24
Jordan Eberle 2.78
Ales Hemsky 2.36
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.18
Taylor Hall 1.77
Ryan Jones 1.57
Shawn Horcoff 1.37
Lennart Petrell 0.80
Ben Eager 0.54
Sam Gagner 0.44
Anton Lander 0.37
Magnus Paajarvi 0.33

I don't really have anything to say about the blue. The win Saturday was terrific, even the second time I watched it yesterday. However, there's just no way this six can keep NHL forwards at bay. Here's the EV running time from Saturday night:

Gilbert 14:41
Teubert 14:12
Petry 14:02
Chorney 13:51
Smid 13:36
Peckham 11:09

Gilbert and Smid were PK men for 7 minutes and Gilbert had big PP time (3:46) too. For me, Teubert looked exposed and that's probably the guy Edmonton will send out when Whitney is better. I remain hopeful the Oilers will trade to improve the current D, but have been doing so since 2006 summer, so even the cry Wolf story went home.

According to tsn, Dallas has lost 5 in a row. They have Eriksson and Benn plus some talented scorers and their goaltending is good. Their defense looks weird to me: a bunch of stay at homes and a shooter in Souray, but it doesn't look like a modern day crew. I guess that's Goligoski's job.

I don't make predictions, especially after Saturday night. That's why you play the games.

Lust For Life

2011-11-20T08:35:00.001-07:00

The quotes last night ranged from the sublime ("Steve Smith: What a stupid god-damned hockey team...just idiotic") to the ridiculous ("Irony can be a funny thing sometimes") and the emotions flow as the mind races.

Some observations

On a night when everything was beautiful, Jordan Eberle's psycho-pass to Ryan Smyth for a goal in the first period was the outer marker on the night. Sick, sick player.
Duncan Keith's hit on Taylor Hall was filthy, but just as he did at the Mem Cup Hall came back immediately to score and punish the opponent in the most effective way. I didn't hear a lot of running our show talk last night, hopefully a reflection of that argument gaining steam over the need for an enforcer.
Hall had a couple of shovel jobs, but that ripper that cleared the defender and found twine meant he was back for sure. What a tremendous shot. He's going to score a lot of goals in the NHL.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is not from this planet. I always thought he had a certain Spock-like quality but those cross ice passes that hit the stick on the fly aren't possible. If Eberle is sick, RNH is wicked-sick. Cerebral squared. Lordy.
I'll be starting the Top 20 prospects later this week (started last year's on November 24th, that seems about right but we'll see) and can say there are 9 forwards, 8 defenders and 3 goalies on the list.
The CBC coverage of the game was disappointing. I taped the game and will save it for years, but truth is that the event would have had more value if tsn had done the game. I'm not a hater of HNIC, it's been a part of my life for decades--since I was a kid--but the commentary was beyond poor. Only a top flight postgame with Scott Oake and Shawn Horcoff--an excellent After Hours--saved the broadcast.
I still believe trading Sam Gagner at this point is a mistake, but after a night like that one it's easy to argue he's expendable. He had 5 shots on goal, +1 (Hemmer's starter) and played 18 minutes, but he's third wheel behind RNH and Horcoff and that role can be played by Belanger all day long. Garrioch has him off to Chi-town and maybe that's the better plan. I'll miss him when he goes, smart hockey players are a rare item.
Garrioch's article talks about Carle from Philly and if ST is going to make a move now would be a good time. Road trip ahead through some tough enemy territory and those young hires on the blue will be exposed.
I tried like hell to track the line changes, but Renney wasn't exactly playing three chord rock with the forwards. Was there any rhyme to the combinations?
The PK didn't flourish without Petrell, I expect he'll be back in the lineup (possibly replacing Lander).
Jeff Petry (0-3-3 +5) has landed. Sending him down now would be idiotic.
Magnus Paarjarvi is lost. He needs to spend some time in OKC. If racing behind the opposition net were rewarded he'd be Gretzky.And it isn't TOI because he played more than Eberle, the kid's just off the rails. It happens, a trip to the farm where he can kick the daylights out of the AHL and get PP time is a good thing.
Theo Peckham had his best game of the season.
Ben Eager played 10:18, about 7 minutes more than he should have. The only other player I thought was poor (Teubert) is a rookie callup. One performance understandable, the other maybe due to concussion residue.
Good for Tom Gilbert. He's a man.

G19 Hawks at Oilers

2011-11-19T07:33:00.003-07:00

On May 8, 1990 the Edmonton Oilers were in a little trouble. in their series against the Chicago Blackhawks. Down 2 games to 1, Edmonton's leader Mark Messier was quoted in the papers as saying "we have to find a way to turn it up a notch and play with more discipline." Famous last words.

The story goes that in the dressing room, before game 4 in Chicago, Messier stood up and stated the team couldn't take any costly penalties. Discipline. After which he went out and damn near cut Steve Larmer's arm off.

Messier's performance that spring (1990) was the stuff of legends. Oiler fans who remember it cannot possibly hope for another like it, and yet it's exactly what we're doing.

Coach Renney finally started looking at some different lines in practice yesterday. Reports had the tune going something like this (courtesy Gregor's twitter):

RNH-Smyth-Eberle
Horcoff-Hall-Jones
Gagner-Paajarvi-Hemsky
Belanger-Eager-Petrell-Lander-Hordichuk rotating

I'd be thrilled with that top 9, but doubt we see it for long if at all. NHL coaches love their veterans and I suspect we'll see Horcoff and Smyth together at the slightest sign of trouble. And with a defense that boasts two new hires due to injury, trouble bought a suite to be near the action.

Sometimes it's better not to think too much. Tonight might be an example. Cheer like hell for the home side, hope for some creativity from the coach and maybe the Hawks don't show up two nights in a row. And if they do, maybe make a list of talking points for the people you're watching the game with tonight. Subjects include the weather, Christmas shopping, kids and school, the government and flying south. It's always good to be prepared on night's like this one.

Nation Radio hits the airwaves at noon today, Team 1260. It'll be up at Oilers Nation sometime Sunday and our scheduled guests include:

Jonathan Willis from Cult of Hockey, Nations Network, Hockey Prospectus and ESPN Insider. Jonathan is that rare item: a man who can converse equally well in the math hockey world and in the "saw him good" group. I'll ask him about his recent article entitled "Statistics are Dumb" and the point he was making.
Trevor Maughan from Arctic Ice Hockey. We'll talk Jets and their steady improvement, including two impressive wins this week.
JP Nikota from Pension Plan Puppets and Leafs Nation. The PPP people are some of the finest bloggers on the planet, and JP has been doing some excellent work re:scoring chances. I'll attempt to mock him, but am a bit of a fan so it'll probably be lame.
Tab or Sam from Committed Indians, a Blackhawk blog of some note. Chicago stumbled last night after a nice run recently, and I'll check in and see what the CI folks think about the team, tonight's game and Chicago's chances this season.
Jesse Rogers from ESPN Chicago. We'll talk about the importance of this road trip as an indicator of how this year's Hawks look moving forward.

Emails welcome at nationradio@theteam1260.com and I'm on twitter now too @lowetide_ if that works better for you. I do read comments at both blogs and enjoy your input and questions for our guests. Have a great Saturday, drive safely.

Oilers Recall Two

2011-11-18T18:32:00.000-07:00

Taylor Chorney (in photo, in Blues uniform) and Colten Teubert were recalled by the Edmonton Oilers in time for tomorrow night's game against the Hawks. Andy Sutton and Corey Potter were to have MRI's today and we should know more by game time, but I'd guess that both of the new hires play tomorrow night.

Ryan Whitney is apparently getting closer, and that should be the item Oiler fans hold onto tightly. The truth is that beyond the Smid-Gilbert pairing it's a crapshoot. Chicago, with their skilled and fleet forward group, are poised to place a righteous beating on the men from Edmonton in the HNIC game.