We're reaching the midway point of this NHL season and lots of things are coming into view. There are many predictable things--Detroit, Chicago and Vancouver are at the top of the western conference standings and Jordan Eberle is in the top 10 in scoring.
The Oilers spent a decade without a "first shot scorer" and now they're falling out of the sky. Taylor Hall can score goals in close and by picking corners, RNH's passes make tap-ins a breeze, and then there's Jordan Eberle. (NOTE: I am not comparing Eberle to BH).
Jordan Eberle is a sublime young player. Terrific passer, ridiculous hands allow him to stickhandle in close (that goal against Russia was no fluke) and buddy has been scoring from outside the normal areas lately. I don't know if it's luck or he's found another foot on his fastball (Dennis mentioned changing scoring angles the other day) but he does appear to be beating goalies when he shouldn't be doing it.
God in heaven, please make this big brained prairie boy strong and sturdy, with a will of iron and endurance you don't normally see outside the porn industry. Amen.
This is Dave Hrechkosy. He scored 29 goals for Oakland as a rookie and never got close again. Losing teams--hey, I was a Montreal Expo fan, do you really want me to tell you about the Pepe Mangual/Bombo Rivera summer--have things like that happen all the time. 29 goals one year, 4 the next.
I've decided that the Oilers organization "test subject" in the Pepe/Bombo/Hrechkosy study is Magnus Paajarvi. Let's see how this turns out.
--
Anaheim GM Bob Murray told Helene Elliot last night that he has two untouchables--Sakku Koivi and Teemu Selanne--but everyone else in play. Ryan Getzlaf would be perfect for any team, but the Oilers don't have the bullets to acquire him without dealing one of the first overall's or Eberle (as part of a package). Their good defensemen are veterans like Beauchemin and Lydman, fine players but not quite right for the rebuild. Fowler is an interesting prospect but he's struggling defensively and that often ruins young D--it's been happening for decades (see Seals, Oakland: Rick Hampton).
St. Louis is a different team now that Hitchcock is in charge. He's very easy going right up until the first mistake. His (reported) style is similar to Billy Martin's baseball style. Legend has it that when Martin got to Oakland he had a meeting with his starting pitchers. They all agreed that they were going to throw strikes.
FIRST game of exhibition baseball, Rick Langford throws the first pitch. Ball one! TIME! Martin comes running out of the dugout and out to the mound. "I thought we agreed we were going to throw strikes?!!?!!"
:-)
Having any one of those three would be a dream(Getzlaf,Perry,Ryan). Outside of RNH, Ebs and Hall anyone should be available.
ReplyDeleteTo continue your porn analogy, Tambo needs to go balls deep on this one.
You can be a Expos fan, Hell there were a lot of us. But please not a Gary Carter fan. That smiling sucker's, Monday at bat. Yech
ReplyDeleteDamn, still ruins a day for me.
What makes you think that Fowler is struggling defensively? His SA/60 is second to only Beauchemin among the Ducks D (not by much) and they're also playing almost as tough minutes.
ReplyDeleteThe team sucks, but if you compare Fowler's CORSIREL this year is 8.3 whereas last year it was -8.4. To me, that's progress.
Okay, you passed the acid test. I knew you were good people.
ReplyDeleteIt was the very loud foul and that puke put the glove down the middle again. Oh shit - and the rest was slo mo. And hope died, right there.
But talk about an organization. They produced stars, man.
Well they should have known when Ron Cey hit that deep fly to left the previous at-bat. Rogers had nothing. Carter did NOT call middle-in, you're right. He called dead red down the fucking middle.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'd better stop or it'll be porch climber red tonight.
ReplyDeleteEither Murray or Elliot had to have been high on mescaline when the this conversation took place. Most likely both of them.
ReplyDeleteSo a 41 year old player who will almost certainly retire at the end of the year and a 37 year old player who appears (to me at least) to be wearing down are the untouchables in Anaheim? Getzlaf (26 yrs old), Perry (26 yrs old, reigning Hart Trophy winner) and Ryan (24 yrs old) are the guys on the trading block?
Unless those kids are openly doing coke in their lockers between periods, I think they can be reasonably looked upon as cornerstone type players who should be built around, not dealt.
There must be something to these rumours though. There was a ton of speculation about Bobby Ryan leaving Anaheim earlier this year and Getzlaf's name has been speculated on now.
Of course this is most likely the GM trying to light a fire underneath some asses by threatening to break up some friendships. If ownership allowed Carlyle to get fired, could Murray be far behind?
I hated the Blues jersey with the red at the bottom, and I hated the Blues jersey even more when I saw Gretzkey in one... it never seemed right.
ReplyDeleteBack on topic, if Fowler is struggling defensively, is this an opportunity? Last year, I believe a lot of people were drooling over hindsight of the Oilers getting both Hall and Fowler. Isn't defensive positioning one of those things that can be acquired (through coaching and structure), and typically takes longer with young people anyways?
Could this be an opportunity for the Oilers to get a young promising young defenceman, with almost 2 years of development already under his belt?
Corey Perry is available?!
ReplyDeleteDamn, I knew we should have re-signed Comrie.
LT: Sorry for going off-topic, but is there any chance you can get Neal Livingston (from C&B) on the show sometime soon? He's doing a terrific series about the OKC rookies, particularly the lesser known ones (House, Lowery). In particular though I think he'd be great just to talk about how good OKC has been this year, and whether or not Todd Nelson should be in the Oiler's (or another team's) sights for an NHL gig (whether as a head coach or an assistant). Just a thought!
ReplyDeleteDon't the Ducks have a really good defenseman from somewhere in Europe who would be a natural fit in the Oilers Top-6?
ReplyDeleteLubricant? Lubraderm?... what was his name again...?
If Whitney can't get healthy, may him and a draft pick might get a deal done for an actual defenseman? Perhaps a 6th or something?
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ReplyDeleteHelene Elliot's piece in the LA Times.
ReplyDeletehttp://goo.gl/6Nhtg
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ReplyDeleteMurray :"We're going to get ready for next year," he said, repeating that he's not rebuilding and doesn't intend to trade established players for prospects and draft choices.
ReplyDeleteTo give up an Eberle or Hall for one year of Getzlaf or Perry doesn't make sense. Pass.
Against BUF Renney shit the bed via line matching and gave an injured 10, and AHLers 12, 56 too much ice time, as they were getting pounded every shift they went out on.
ReplyDeleteHere are the forwards 5v5 TOI from the BUF game:
T. Hall 17:59
S. Gagner 17:48
A. Hemsky 17:16
R. Smyth 13:48
T. Hartikainen 12:43
A. Lander 12:20
S. Horcoff 11:40
J. Eberle 11:38
J. Green 11:17
E. Belanger 09:19
R. Jones 09:53
B. Eager 08:31
Eberle is in the top 10 in NHL scoring, but Renney plays him the 8th most 5v5.
What
The
Fuck
?
Harski playing his 4th game in 4 days and a raw rookie gets 5th most 5v5 TOI?
Ruff sent out Roy, Stafford and Gerbe every time 12,10,56 hit the ice and Renney didn't adjust and they went -4,-3,-3 respectively.
Outcoached and its not even close.
4,89,83 looks like the real deal.
Outchanced Toews/Hossa in their own building and won the chances battle again the next night in BUF.
They are in tough tonight against the Blues.
They will probably see a steady diet of Backes, Stewart and Perron as Hitch loves to go PvP.
Mind you, the rest of the Oiler forward lines are not that good overall (Eberle is awesome, but can't carry a line on his own...yet), so he may just try to avoid that matchup. Will be interesting.
57 looked overmatched centering 94 and 14. If 10 is ok I hope they move him there.
The Blues are big boys who are well coached with very good goaltending (aside: WTF Brian Elliot??) and talented D.
If you listen to the radio broadcast I put the over/under of Stauffer's GETTINGTHEIRSHOWRUN/60 (GTSR/60)AT 9.5.
How Renney deploys everyone not named Hall, Hemsky, Gagner will determine if they have a chance.
He could coach perfectly and the Blues can still win, their roster is just that much deeper at all positions than the Oilers.
Go Oilers!!
ReplyDeleteTo give up an Eberle or Hall for one year of Getzlaf or Perry is batshit insane
FYP.
Murry gonna raze it to the ground if he gets rid of all 3.
Might be the right thing to do with Getzlaf and Perry as they only have 1 year left until FA.
Ryan has 3 years left after this one, so he'd cost more.
Only Ryan would make sense to add to the Oilers given his 3 years left, but giving up anyone named Hall, Eberle, RNH, is stupid beyond recognition.
"God in heaven, please make this big brained prairie boy strong and sturdy, with a will of iron and endurance you don't normally see outside the porn industry. Amen."
ReplyDeleteGold LT, gold. Just home for lunch, now have to change my shirt from laughing.
Look at the clip of the Monday home run, bugger was off balance when he hit it, still went out. Playing Kirk Gibson. Ask the LEFT hander Spaceman Lee what he thinks about the Fanning decision to go with the rightie Rogers.
The Blues logo. Bad memories. As a 7 or 8 year old, I got one of those table hockey games, came with Montreal and Toronto of course on the little men....mom said she would order the Flyers stickers as they were my team until 1981...anyway, they sent St. Louis instead...pissed would not describe how I felt and she would not reorder. Uggh.
ReplyDelete57 looked overmatched centering 94 and 14. If 10 is ok I hope they move him there.
Quoted-for-truth Woodguy.
One has to think that a line where Smyth and Eberle are centered by a healthy Horcoff would be capable of some pretty tough matchups. And if Hall-Gagner-Hemsky give the team more of what we've seen from them the last couple of games, that's the start of two decent lines.
Maybe when RNH gets back they could play him with MPS and Hartikainen and give those three the super-protected minutes? Never know, could work (especially when the "fourth" line would be Eager-Belanger-Jones, a trio which should be capable of taking on at least the secondary-toughs).
Problem is the blueline. I've got a bad feeling that Gilbert is out for an extended period. If he wasn't, one would think we'd have heard the good news by now. If he's gone for weeks or months, the Fail-for-Nail/Stink-for-Grink/Worry-for-Murray will be on like Donkey Kong...
Eberle changes the shooting angle on nearly every solid chance, is a precise shooter, and has the quiet mind required to be as amazingly patient as is required. Amazing to watch. I have every confidence an 19-year-old Eberle would have finished on that chance the Canadian jrs had to tie it late that was mindlessly banged off the goalie's pad.
ReplyDeleteIf we get a chance to win the big one anytime soon, and the game is on the line, I pick Eberle every time to take that shot. Not because he's clutch (even though he is) but because he's just better at it than the rest.
I'm still stunned how little San Jose paid to get Thornton (but the Bruins won the cup first so who knows). I'd make a Thorton type offer for Getzlaf. Could also really see Calgary making an offer.
ReplyDeleteAnd if Fowler is possibly on the block, call yesterday.
Go Oilers! I refuse to #fail4nail
We're reaching the midway point of this NHL season
ReplyDeleteI haven't read the rest of the article yet as this first sentence depressed me immensely.
Hey LT, it's a good thing you're not comparing Eberle to BH. I think BH is a weird comparable though because Bill Harris was never that good for his era of hockey he played. Eberle is special.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy said:
ReplyDeleteRuff sent out Roy, Stafford and Gerbe every time 12,10,56 hit the ice and Renney didn't adjust and they went -4,-3,-3 respectively.
Outcoached and its not even close.
If only there was a member of the MSM willing to ask the coach some questions about his "strategy." ;)
Jake70: When you got the wrong stickers, did you run to church, and pray to God and Bobby Clarke for a swarm of moths to eat the stickers?
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ReplyDeleteSlopitch:
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers trade a real NHL player for Fowler, we'll definitely aiming to fail4Nail.
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ReplyDeleteLT wrote:
ReplyDeleteRyan Getzlaf would be perfect for any team, but the Oilers don't have the bullets to acquire him without dealing one of the first overall's or Eberle (as part of a package).
Eberle as part of a package for Getzlaf? Not seeing it LT, given the contract situations I'm not really sure how one could argue Getzlaf to be more valuable than Eberle.
Even if you think Getzlaf is a better player than Eberle, how is 1.5 years of Getzlaf making 5+ worth more than 1.5 years of Eberle making 1+, plus his 4 RFA years?
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ReplyDeleteAs much as 12-10-56 were outplayed, Horcoff was hurt and Green and Hartikainen were playing their 3rd and 4th games respectively in 4 nights. That doesn't change the fact that they shouldn't be out together against any quality, but if they are, I would expect them to perform better with a day's rest.
ReplyDeleteAs for Anaheim, I don't think Murray is going to get a Hall/Nuge/Eberle from any team, and I certainly don't think Tambellini would have to (nor would he) lose one of them to make a deal should they truly be available.
The same way Getzlaf/Perry/Ryan weren't on the table at any point in the Pronger trade, Hall/Nuge/Eberle won't be available for one of their stars.
You don't win a trade when you're giving up a Getzlaf/Thornton/Pronger. Jeff Carter got a draft pick similar to what we're looking at having this year and a top young forward with NHL experience and still not so far removed from his draft year that the fact he was a top 10 pick still held value (plus a 3rd).
Could we get a guy like Getzlaf for Paajarvi/Gagner, our 1st and another lesser asset? Probably not, but it might be a start.
I've got a bad feeling that Gilbert is out for an extended period.
ReplyDeleteLast I heard (yesterday) he was day to day.
Spector tweeted today that he skated today, but left the ice minutes after. Not great.
Not terrible though because he felt good enough to even go for a skate.
Peeps,
If only there was a member of the MSM willing to ask the coach some questions about his "strategy." ;)
Someone cut and pasted one of my posts at ON into an email that was read on Stauffer's show yesterday regarding this.
I found that flattering, and yet it still pissed me off a little because they were my words, not his, but whatever.
Gilbert tweets Carcillo: "LOL U MAD?"
ReplyDelete@BlameGilbert is one of the better sports twitters.
Gretzky was a St. Louis Blue? I choose not to remember that. ;-)
ReplyDeleteWith the year Getzlaf is having, I don't really see his value as much more than what we see Hemsky's value at. I know he has a history of being a good player, but his numbers this year stink (38GP 6-19-25, -14) and frankly NHL GMs/fans tend to think in terms of right now, rather than longterm.
A GM likely could pry him loose for prospects and a warm body with low cap-hit. Especially since he is UFA this year.
You don't win a trade when you're giving up a Getzlaf/Thornton/Pronger. Jeff Carter got a draft pick similar to what we're looking at having this year and a top young forward with NHL experience and still not so far removed from his draft year that the fact he was a top 10 pick still held value (plus a 3rd).
ReplyDeleteCould we get a guy like Getzlaf for Paajarvi/Gagner, our 1st and another lesser asset? Probably not, but it might be a start.
I'm sure I'm not adding anything you didn't know, but there's a few differences between the CLB/Carter trade and a potential Getzlaf trade (with anyone, but specifically the Oilers since that's what we're talking about). For one, Carter is signed long term, and Getzlaf is not, so it's tough to compare the values unless there's some reason you think you can extend Getzlaf, at a reasonable price.
Additionally, CLB was apparently in a rush to get better RIGHT NOW, and it doesn't seem like that's the case for EDM - they are taking a longer term approach.
In terms of value, and the long term build, I think you could argue that it's not worth giving up EDM's 2012 1st round pick for Getzlaf straight up, at this time.
The idea of grabbing any of the three Ducks is appealing...I just can't figure out how they'd be able to pay everyone in the long run.
ReplyDeleteThis is for LT:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sporcle.com/games/notaratface/did-they-ever-play-for-the-montreal-expos
@Woodguy: i thought the wording in that email sounded eerily familiar! Thats plagiarism surely?!
ReplyDeleteFowler's stock is as low as it will ever be so he's likely worth a shot. His offense is off as well. His shot rate is down from last year. Oilers need PP help on D.
ReplyDeleteDoes 89 and a 2nd or 3rd get it done?
speeds: That's what I was saying (badly). It isn't worth trading Eberle for Getzlaf.
ReplyDeleteI don't really see his value as much more than what we see Hemsky's value at.
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf is a 6'4" C with a history of scoring, a cup ring and 1.5 years left on his contract.
I think he'd get about 3x what you could get for Hemsky, maybe more.
Return will probably be similar to Carter if he moves, even with Carter having a longer term.
A GM will chaulk up his results this year as an abberation.
EasyOil,
ReplyDeleteProbably, but it was a comment in a blog so its no big deal to me and flattering.
It was also emailed to a phone in show, not "re-published".
If I made $ from writing and it was a post in my own blog I'd probably get my back up a tiny bit, but not with this.
Fowler's stock is as low as it will ever be so he's likely worth a shot. His offense is off as well. His shot rate is down from last year. Oilers need PP help on D.
ReplyDeleteDoes 89 and a 2nd or 3rd get it done?
How does trading a good young 2nd line C for a young D man who is off his game this year AND giving up a draft choice make any sense?
You just said his value is low - Why overpay, esp. with a valuable asset?
If watching Smid, Greene, and other D-men develop has taught me anything, its this: Don't trade for any D-man under 24 who isn't named Lidstrom. Let other teams pay for the mistakes they make while learning.
As for the Quacks... I'd stay away from that trio, and look at other pieces. And by other pieces, I mean prospects. If anyone is available... Devo Pelly-SMith or Emerson Etem are a hell of a lot more intreguing pickups than the other peices that they have.
Just my 2 cents.
Additionally, CLB was apparently in a rush to get better RIGHT NOW, and it doesn't seem like that's the case for EDM - they are taking a longer term approach.
ReplyDeleteAnd its going to cost Howson his job. Carter has 17 pts in 27 games (.629 ppg), whereas Vorack has 23 pts in 37 games (.621). Plus Philly gets Couturier (10pts)and a 3 rd rounder this year.
LA hasn't done much either despite giving up their best prospect, plus Simmonds and a second for Richards.
Thats plagiarism surely?!
ReplyDeleteYes, but that's not generally legally actionable.
I suspect (THIS IS NOT LEGAL ADVICE) that Woodguy might have a copyright claim, but any damages awarded would probably be negligible to non-existent.
It was also emailed to a phone in show, not "re-published".
ReplyDeleteThat definitely constitutes publication.
Woodguy: Smart mentality re your writing being lifted. These days(and I wouldn't be too shocked at any point in time), words do get lifted and re-used - it's called journalism, lol.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is mate, you're one of the sharper knives in the Lowetide constellation of commentators.
Hilarious how everyone thinks the Ducks can't wait to unload Getzlaf. The only reason the GM was even saying those other two guys aren't tradeable is due to NMC clauses. The GM was merely being hypotheticaly correct, just like if Tambo was to state for the record that outside Horcoff(LOL), all the current Oilers(including Hall, Eberle/RNH) were available.
And that would be hilarious.
Gregor just posted RNH out 3-4 weeks with shoulder injury.
ReplyDeleteNo specifics on the injury.
Blah.
Gregor just posted RNH out 3-4 weeks with shoulder injury.
ReplyDelete*facepalm*
Well, at least we have the depth at the center position to at least be able to counter for this loss somewhat (it will be "interesting" to see if the PP has sustain with RNH out).
An extended Gilbert absence, however, well...that would be much worse.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words.
SS,
That settles it, I'm gonna find out who did that and sue him for everything Bob paid him for that email!
Oilers could trade for one of Perry, Getzlaf, or Ryan? With Lowe Expectations calling the shots like we all know he does?
ReplyDeletePasses on the opportunity to draft Getzlaf in 2003.
Passes on the opportunity to draft Perry in 2003.
(Oh WTH...passes on a chance to draft roughly 132 prospects better than the one he DID take) IDIOT!
Passes on the opportunity to trade a whining holdout for Corey Perry.
Passes on the opportunity to ask for any ONE of the trio when trading away one of the NHL's top Dmen.
Openly scoffs at Ryan's quality as a prospect during his war of words with Burke despite the fact he had nothing remotely close in his hand picked stable.
Fact is Kevin Lowe is neither bright enough or hockey talent astute enough to make a trade of this magnitude.
The Lowe Expectations method of building a contender constitutes stockpiling top 3 picks and hoping that in 10 years he'll have enough of them around to finish 8th in the conference and go on a magical run.
No need to rush things when the buildings full afterall.
(recalls joke about Grizzly Bear saying to hunter with a sore asshole..."You're not really here for the hunting are you?"
WG:
ReplyDeleteI must say I am pretty disappointed in Brownlee and his defensiveness when challenged. I did appreciate your comments over there. I'm exercising an open-ended ban of RB in support. Cheers.
My bad on Getzlaf. I mis-read Capgeek on his contract, thinking he was UFA this year, which obviously makes his contract a better value if it is still 1.5 years left. I still think he's the most affordable of the three prominent Ducks, and I really hope the Oilers have nothing to do with that firesale.
ReplyDeleteSo, a kid who's never been injured, joins the Oilers and has a significant injury halfway through the season? That's unusual.
One of my posts,
ReplyDeleteI stated i would not trade Eberle for Getzlaf straight across.
Any set-up player Assist count is a product of the people recieving the pass.
Getzlaf Sets-up .7GPG players and gets .7APG
Gagner sets up .33GPG wingers and gets .4APG
what is even more sad is Gagner produces past what his wingers are Capable of.
Eberle gets you goals! set-up men are dependent on there scorers.
Eberle 20YR NHL 69GM 18G 25A 43P
Getzlaf 20YR NHL 57GM 14G 25A 39PTS
Eberle 21YR 34GM 15G 21A 36PTS
Getzlaf 21YR 77GM 25G 33A 58PTS
Eberle is producing at Getzlafs best rate 1 1/2 years ahead of him.
Plus amazingly
Getzlaf makes the jump from .42APG to .75APG in his 22 year old season.
When Perry and Selanne show up. and continues with them and Ryan.
Interesting.
But of coarse it was all Getzlaf.
Not the future Richard Award winner,
Not one of the 20 best goal scorers in history,
Not one of the 60 best young scorers in hockey history.
Assist men are reflective of who they play with.
So how does getzlaf Assist count drop setting up .4 to .5Goal wingers?
Lets look at an oiler centers who played with consistently played with high end scorers for two years.
O5-06
Horcoff (.65APG) played with Hemsky(.24) and Smyth (.48)
07-08
Horcoff (.55APG) played with Penner(.28) and Hemsky (.27)
look at that Shawn horcoff equal to Getzlaf numbers when playing with equal production wingers.
So it has to be Horcoff is Awesome.
Getzlaf @ 5.25M
Gagner@3.5M
for what will be likely similiar numbers. >4APG when setting up .4GPG wingers
unless of coarse RNH gets moved down and Getzlaf Gets Hall and Eberle as wingers.
the real numbers says not much upgrade from Gagner with equal wingers.
I'm not big on Getzlaf either. I certainly wouldn't trade Eberle for him straight up. That would be robbery of the wrong kind.
ReplyDeleteScorers peak young. Take the good, young, cheap, player every time.
I also wouldn't make any trade that involved this year's first round pick. That could easily end in Kessel territory.
A fair deal might be something like Gagner and Paajarvi for Getzlaf though that is probably too much.
Anyone want to show me were getzlaff gets .7APG from a set of .4GPG wingers i will gladly change my mind.
ReplyDeleteBased onthe play of our young trio this year, all of them will get "Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan" contracts in 2 and 3 years. So knowing this, along with the need for a better top end dman who will cost us money, would it not make sense to make a true run at the cup next year? So while it seems the consensus that we not pursue a Getzlaf, I'll take the opposite approach and see if it makes sense.
ReplyDeleteBased on previous LT posts you need a few major elements in order to make a run for the cup:
1. Kids outperforming their ELC's: We have this in spades, but after next season we begin to pay dearly.
2. Players in their prime playing for next big deal: Whitney and Smid UFA's next year, Bulin UFA (prob done but he could Roloson it). Maybe Gagner (if he gets a 1 yr deal) and Hemsky (if we keep him).
3. Vets playing out their careers making one last push: Smyth, Horcoff, Bulin, Belanger. Good news is other then Bulin none are top 6 forwards, but all will play major roles in our own zone.
So we have a bunch of the elements, but we lack (other then #1 dman) a gritty, power forward who can score. Getzlaf is perfect, and knowing we will have to shell out major bucks after next season we may be forced to move a kid anyways so why not make a run at the cup next year. In this day and age of parity, having a true shot at the cup is rare, and if we played it right we could be the Hawks in their cup year. Yes they won then moved out a bunch of guys, but that happens to almost every team (next year the Bruins will have to do it as well).
Edmonton doesn't match up with Anaheim's needs at all. They have 3 good forward prospects in Etem, Palmieri and Smith-Pelley. They have only 2 NHL D under 30 though, who are both still learning the ropes defensively. They also have no depth at centre. If Getzlaf were to go their top 2 centres would be Koivu and Cogliano with a couple of inexperienced young guys - Bonino and Macmillan rounding out the bottom 6.
ReplyDeleteIf they are going to move one or more of Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan they need to get back young NHL ready young D and a player who is, or soon will be a top line centre. The Oilers don't have anything like that. Teams like Buffalo, or the Rangers or the Leafs are much better match for the Ducks.
I'd move MPS, Gagner and any D prospect or kid in the minors they want for Getzlaf. You then resign Hemsky (which we cant afford unless we move Gagner and MPS since Eberle, Hall and RNH will all get huge money starting at $5 mill minimum), and make a play for a dman in free agency. You open up a spot for Omark/Hartikainen or you add a vet in free agency to fill out the roster
ReplyDeleteHall-Getzlaf-Hemsky
Omark/Harsky-RNH-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-Omark/Harksy
Eager-Belanger-Jones
Lander-Pitlik/vet
Whitney-???UFA
Gilbert-Smid
Potter/Vet-Petry
Teubert
The progression of RNH, Eberle and Hall, the addition of the grit and scoring of Getzlaf, a healthy Hemsky (I know, I know), a spot for our favourite Finn, and the last year of cheap kids means next year is our best shot at a cup. not in 3 years, when we will be priced out cap wise due to our kids getting huge money. Next year is our window, and I hope we make a run. Anyone short of Eberle, Hall and RNH should be available. You only get a few shots at the cup, and you have to take it when it comes.
Getzlaf for Cup Run??????
ReplyDeleteLook at +/- for forwards in Anaheim cup run.
1.Pauhlsson +10
2.R. Neidermeyer +9
3. A. Mcdonald +6
4. C. Perry +5
5. Travis Moen +5
6. Dustin Penner +4
7. Kunitz, Miller, Getzlaf +1
Cup run? maybe we can get penner back.
"In terms of value, and the long term build, I think you could argue that it's not worth giving up EDM's 2012 1st round pick for Getzlaf straight up, at this time."
ReplyDeleteI'm sure someone would/could make that argument (and already have, I'm sure), but I still don't think it's a particularly strong one.
Nevermind the fact that the notion of this team not being any good for 5 more years itself is absurd, Getzlaf is 26 years old and will still be an elite forward during that time.
Yes, there's the possibility that he doesn't extend his contract, just like it's possible our 1st round pick never plays a game in the NHL. What's more damaging to the franchise's future? At least with Getzlaf, you've got half a season before you can even talk to him about an extension to see how he fits or gauge his interest. If it's not a fit, I'm sure teams wouldn't mind a chance to trade for him in the offseason or at the deadline.
You know... I really like the idea of trading for Getzlaff and then bringing Penner back on a 1 year deal.
ReplyDeleteAdds exactly what this team needs in the top 6.
Of course, I want the 2010 version of Penner, not this crappy 2012 version.
I'm utterly baffled at how what happened to Hopkins can result in being out 3-4 weeks, and how seemingly all of our hurt players miss significant time rather than a game or two. What's the deal?
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf's Corsi Rel QoC:
ReplyDelete2007-2008 - 9/11 forwards with at least 50 GP.
2008-2009 - 5/9 forwards with at least 50 GP.
2009-2010 - 6/11 forwards with at least 50 GP.
2010-2011 - 4/11 forwards with at least 50 GP.
2011-12 - 2/13 forwards with at least 20 GP.
So this is his first year where he's really facing the toughs. It's also his worst season (at least by boxscores). Coincidence?
Woodguy - Here are my thoughts on the issue of your material being stolen without your permission.
ReplyDeletei thought the wording in that email sounded eerily familiar! Thats plagiarism surely?!
But that's not generally legally actionable.
I suspect (THIS IS NOT LEGAL ADVICE) that you might have a copyright claim, but any damages awarded would probably be negligible to non-existent.
It being emailed to a phone in show definitely constitutes publication.
The thing is mate, you're one of the sharper knives in the Lowetide constellation of commentators.
Anyway, that's about all I have to say about that for now.
Getzlaf's zonestarts:
ReplyDelete2007-2008 - 58.1%
2008-2009 - 57.3%
2009-2010 - 49.1%
2010-2011 - 46.6%
2011-2012 - 46.9%
So he's faced tough sledding by zonestarts, but he's also had the benefit of playing a lot with Perry, Ryan, and one of Pronger, Neidermayer or Visnovsky the past few season.
Why trade for Getzlaf, when Pitlick will be Getzlaf-lite in 2 years? The "Getzlaf" that every wants was mostly a canny Carlyle making a good player look far better than he really is.
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf is NOT a true top line centre. He is a soft minutes centre. As soon as Carlyle lost his tough minutes centre, Pahlsson, and then Marchant/Koivu, and Getzlaf had to face tough matches, and his production evaporated. So he will never be value for money when you have to pay him on his next contract.
On the Olympic team, he was a soft minutes centre.
Perry is the best player of the Anaheim three (and detestable when he is not on your team). He would be the one that I want. A better complement to Eberle on the right side, than Hemsky.
But I'm for not short-circuiting a proper rebuild.
He's had great Rel Corsi numbers his whole career, but I'm not sure subtracting a package like Gagner and Paajarvi and adding Getzlaf makes the Oilers a better team.
ReplyDeleteAt this point I'd have to say Hemsky>>>Getzlaf, and maybe even Horcoff>>Getzlaf.
As much as I am a supporter of both Horcoff and Hemsky, I'd quite easily take Getzlaf over either of them without so much as a second thought.
ReplyDeleteOh, and ditto for Gagner and Paajarvi.
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf without Carlyle, Paulsson/Marchant, Pronger, and Niedermayer has been exposed to be a mediocre player. No value for money there. You are paying for past rings won on the backs of others.
ReplyDeleteBookie, that was gold.
ReplyDeleteDBO, to plagiarize ANA GM Murray and my comment above:"We're going to get ready for next year," he said, repeating that he's not rebuilding and doesn't intend to trade established players for prospects and draft choices.
Anyway, I think the odds of MBS grabbing a nice defenseman out of the lottery are higher than Getzlaf signing a deal to stay in EDM.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteJust catching up on the thread so apologies if someone else mentioned this.
As for Eberle's ice time being cut back,he took a dirty knee from Neidereitter(sp?)in the Islander game.Happened,I think with about 5 mins to go in the first.He hobbled off to the bench but didn't seem to miss much time.I know some other guys posted they thought he looked a little flat without RNH but I think this is the real reason.
Eager spends the game chasing the wrong Islander.Nino is the one that needed a lesson.
I'm not that enthused about the top picks in the coming draft. The top D are smallish and Reinhart has stalled, the other need - a big center, might be Galchenyuk or Girgensons, possibly Faksa, which are more in the five to ten range.
ReplyDeleteI'd hardly call him mediocre.
ReplyDeleteHe's a career 12% shooter shooting 7%. He's getting .883 ES goaltending when he's on the ice.
The biggest difference between this year and last (when he was on a 93 point pace) seems to be bounces. At least in terms of the numbers. He's in a more defensive role compared to his teammates from last year, but his Zonestart is the same.
And again, I'm a Horcoff supporter, but the only time he's ever put up 1st line center numbers was when he was playing in a role that many here would say isn't that of the #1 center (and he still wasn't at a PPG). He was also riding some unusually high percentages in his All-star season too.
With Horcoff and Belanger on the team, Getzlaf wouldn't have to be the go-to in defensive situations anyway, nor would it make sense to use him that way.
He's an elite player, and a clear upgrade over just about everyone on our roster.
I'd love to draft a defenseman at the top of this draft, but anyone we take is likely 6 years from being a true impact player at that position. If our holes on defense aren't filled long before that, then Tambellini/Lowe/Katz need to be dealt with in a manner far worse than simply losing their jobs, but something not quite so extreme as to get me in trouble with the law for suggesting it.
ReplyDelete"I'm not sure subtracting a package like Gagner and Paajarvi and adding Getzlaf makes the Oilers a better team"
ReplyDeleteWhich centre would draw more attention and take heat off RNH - Getzlaf or Gagner? I am pretty sure it would be Getzlaf. Like how everyone usually did better with Penner.
Big players with skill are hard to defend and draw better coverage, freeing up ice for everyone else. I see it as key for the playoffs. They also typically don't need a chaperone.
I would definitely look at Getzlaf or Perry if the price was right.
Liking the idea of Penner and Getzlaf additions. Doubt Penner would come back, and doubt we have what it takes to get Getzlaf (although remember MPS is highly regarded and an NHLer regardless of what our management chooses to do).
ReplyDeleteHall-Getzlaf-Hemsky
Penner-RNH-Eberle
That is a solid top 2 lines, with some actual size now to go with skill.
Smyth-Horcoff-Harsky
Eager-Belanger-Jones
Solid bottom 6. I think that lineup competes. Our GM however is not smart enough to make it happen. Mind you, he is almost done evaluating the roster and still thinks our current roster can compete so maybe nothing happens.
punches self in face
With Horcoff and Belanger on the team, Getzlaf wouldn't have to be the go-to in defensive situations anyway, nor would it make sense to use him that way.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good point. I hadn't considered that angle. Hall-Getzlaf-Hemsky should be able to go PvP.
I'm still hesitant though. If I knew for sure that Getzlaf and Hemsky would sign long term I'd consider giving up Gagner and Paajarvi for him.
The problem is that Smyth is 36. How much longer is he going to be able to play the minutes he has been this season? Paajarvi has shown to be capable defensively in the NHL already and was outshooting despite playing with goons for teammates. He's Smyth's replacement, possibly as early as next year.
If Paajarvi goes who takes over Smyth's minutes? Hartikainen?
He's an elite player, and a clear upgrade over just about everyone on our roster.
I don't know. Hall is capable of playing PvP right now and he's 20. Getzlaf is really only starting to play those type of minutes this season and he's 26.
Hall>>>>Getzlaf.
Hemksy is a PvP outscorer, and has been for awhile now. He's only 2 years older than Getzlaf.
Hemsky>>>Getzlaf.
Eberle is currently blowing Getzlaf out of the water in terms of how productive they were in their second seasons.
I'd say Eberle == Getzlaf, and (possibly) Eberle>>Getzlaf.
Getzlaf also doesn't kill penalties. He's really only started to play tough minutes this season. He does score more than Horcoff.
I'd say Getzlaf>Horcoff, but honestly it's close.
Which centre would draw more attention and take heat off RNH - Getzlaf or Gagner? I am pretty sure it would be Getzlaf. Like how everyone usually did better with Penner.
ReplyDeleteIf it was Gagner for Getzlaf straight up I'd probably do it. Although Hall-Gagner-Hemsky looks capable of outscoring PvP minutes, does swapping Gagner for Getzlaf make the line so much better that it's worth the jump in salary and cap hit? I don't know.
Of course, this is all contingent on getting Hemsky re-signed. That needs to be Tambellini's number one priority.
misfit:
ReplyDeleteWe're going to have to draft a defenseman at the top of the draft, and there's some good ones this year. Also, there's at least a small chance that Klefbom and Marincin could develop into one in that 4-5 year timeline.
The problem is any real youngish impact defenseman is going to cost either Hall, Eberle, RNH or a #1 pick in return.
Our track record for luring those kind of players here in free agency isn't very good after Pronger.
We could get a second tier or experienced guy via trade of FA, but not the #1 guy all real cup contenders have.
One other thing - RNH's injury will seem less time due to the all-star break. By my count that's 10 games.
Frankly I'm amazed that people have compared Getzlaf to Horcoff in this thread and there still hasn't been a post by Traktor or DSF.
ReplyDeleteThat shit is like the batsignal to those guys.
Note: the batsignal line isn't mine but was in a thread last year. I'm plagerizing.
DBO:
ReplyDeleteplaying with Hall and Hemsky getzlaf will be around .6ApG.
getzlafs goal rate is the same as hemsky's.
.27GPG
That projects to a 22G 48A 70PT season
Gagner is .22GPg the last two seasons.
His assist rate would be .6APG with hemsky and hall.
Or does he majicaly get less apg than the scoring rate of his wingers when he has a APg rate greater than his wingers.
Projects to 18G 48A 66Pts.
3.5m or 5.25M
Yeah lets trade two or three assets: pay2.75Mmore this tear and 1.75M extra next year for more 4 goals
Lets keep Gagner and get Colton Orr off waivers and we will be ahead
Also,
ReplyDeleteRe: Eberle banged up.
I did think to ask if he was banged up but forgot to put it in my post.
Good question.
Re: Brownlee
I've liked his writing more this year, but the man gets his back up like no other.
rickibear: so you think Gagner is as good as Getzlaf, who brings a physical edge to his game, plays well in playoffs, And if you read my first post I am assuming we lose him in 2 years since if we resign Hemsky, we can't afford Getzlaf or Gagner for that matter (and one of Lander or Pitlik may be ready to be the 2nd line centre by then).
ReplyDeleteSorry, but MPS as a non physical 3rd liner, and a small gagner as our 2nd line centre is not much of a price for a true #1 RH centre that allows solidifies our top end forwards and positions us for a run to the playoffs. In no world is Gagner comparable to Getzlaf (especially using a 2 game sample size).
And did you really suggest Colon Orr makes us better? I'm sober, so maybe I am missing the humour but, wow.
Woodguy: having discussed the ins and outs of both plagarism and copyright many times with lawyers, please dont take any notice of these well-meaning but ultimately silly suggestions to waste so much as a second of your precious life on this silliest of situations.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Beatles release a song that sounds uncannily like the one you put out 2 years ago, then you have a case - or that movie you wrote(and properly registered in Washington DC) gets mysteriously copied by Harvey Weinstein - otherwise you merely line the pockets of the cheerleading lawyers, who always make it sound like youre going to clean up, in their hope that you will end up spending all your money on THEM, lol.
Life is a racket.
I've got a relation - a guy who's been a third stringer all his life, that is, until he discovered the dubious joy of going to court - now the poor shmuck can't wait to sue anyone, everyone...and never comes out of any of it other than poorer, lol. But it makes him feel important, in an otherwise highly second rate life.
I must be on the wagon.
I wonder what kind of law the lawyers in this blog actually practise...probably conveyancing and other dull things...but there's nothing like speaking like an "expert" to massage the old ego eh?
I wonder what kind of law the lawyers in this blog actually practise...
ReplyDeleteCriminal defence (though I'm not a lawyer yet).
please dont take any notice of these well-meaning but ultimately silly suggestions to waste so much as a second of your precious life on this silliest of situations.
I'm going to have to ask you to point out the part where anybody made any such suggestion.
When "SS" no longer has time to waste the world will be a lesser place.
ReplyDeleteAre people really comparing a "soft minutes center for team Canada" to a "soft minutes center for the last place team in the NHL"?
ReplyDelete"I'm going to have to ask you to point out the part where anybody made any such suggestion."
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid you're going to have to discuss that with my lawyer.
Yeah, "SS" is very sharp. School + youth can do that to a guy.
ReplyDeleteBut don't worry, a few years in the real world usually has a way of taking care of that, haha.
having discussed the ins and outs of both plagarism and copyright many times with lawyers
ReplyDeleteI can see how a few conversations makes you an expert on something as complicated as IP law.
I wonder what kind of law the lawyers in this blog actually practise...probably conveyancing and other dull things...but there's nothing like speaking like an "expert" to massage the old ego eh?
It's not as good for the ego as taking a weird baseless shot at a broad group of people I'm sure.
Getzlaf has never been productive in a tough minutes role in the NHL. He is NOT a #1 centre anymore than Horcoff is. And he is going to have to be paid like one. i.e. No value-for-money. Why do the money puck guys go weak in the knees as soon a sexy big overpaid fish becomes available.
ReplyDeleteGetzlaf is as overrated as Dany Heatley.
Carlyle, until this year, was always been able to protect him because he had tough minute centres and/or Hall-of-Fame defensemen. If he's on the market, that means Boudreau is unimpressed.
Perry is the real thing. Getzlaf isn't.
Nugent-Hopkins is going to have to be protected for several years. On a contender, the other two guys are going to have to be able to matchup against top players backed by a mediocre defence.
The Oilers don't have HOF defensemen.
Rapid fire:
ReplyDelete- got 58/60 on that Expos quiz; had 1:28 left at the end. Didn't know that Jim Northrup was an Expo and thought Matty Alou had been.
- 14 is special; the joey mullen comp doesn't even do him justice.
- 58 is a great skater, knows how to use his stick and will get physical every now and then. That being said he still has a ten cent head and when you consider just how jesus long it took for 5 to be worth believing in, it makes you wonder if 58 will ever mature fast enough to help the cluster of young forwards and makes you realize just how much we need dmen with hair on their ass.
Note: only LT or fans of Dan Turner's Expos book will get the that reference. Fuck the rest of you!;)
- 56 should be much better tonight with a day off and good night's rest and a practice. His game should be very adaptable given the style he plays so he should be fine here now and should never go back. Has been on for a whack of GA thus far but has been the victim of terrible netminding, ie Toews goal on Sun and first two GA allowed by Khabby last game.
- watched young 57 try and hang with the brothers the other night on an offensive line and it wasn't pretty. his passing looked terrible alongside his linemates; only hammered home how stupid the decision is to play him 10 min or less in a defensive role in Edm. Should be in OKC playing 15 and all offensive situations. Oil really fucked this season for him and 91.
- been spending my in-game time on twitter and not here like I normally do but a little hat-tip to LT for using 'trifuckta" the other day. Excellent work.
Lowetide, people constantly second guess Renney and I suppose it's with good reason - but from Renney's pov, how would it look if he starts chopping and changing the team, and it's not getting results? He's going to get sacked, right?
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, provided he acts like he's in charge, and damn the results(this is the Oilers after all), his job has got to be a lot safer than were he to constantly try to get overachieving performances from this motley crew. In other words, Renney might feel he doesn't have the luxury of detailed line matching in every game situation, etc.
Or else, maybe he's just a weak NHL coach.
One last thought: I'm pretty meh about 93 being out for 3-4 weeks. If the team had a chance to make the playoffs it would be a crusher but they don't so it isn't.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to watch him develop but both 4 and 14 came through their first big knocks a-ok so I'm confident so shall the youngest one.
In the interm the absence of 93 could be the final referendum of the value of 89 and on the downside it probably means 57 won't be demoted.
On a different (non Getzlaf) note, how did Smid-Potter do against Buffalo? If they played well makes me wonder if a more healthy Whitney back with Gilbert solidifies our top 4 dmen. Of course a healthy Whitney is beginning to move to a healthy Whitney in September.
ReplyDeleteMillion dollar arm, 10 cent head. :-) BEauty.
ReplyDeleteNorthrup came over from maybe the Tigers about 1973 to pinch hit down the stretch iirc, much like Graig Nettles did a generation later.
Alou? Hmm. Felipe played maybe the same year as Northrup and Jesus was an original draft and then part of the Staub trade to Houston with Jack Billingham.
The Houston Astros put the Oilers to shame, they traded the entire fucking baseball hall of fame.
Now, it might be close if ST starts dealing the #1's and Eberle, but surely someone sets fire to someone else's shorts before that happens.
I believe Renney used his fourth line a lot with NYR too so the fact that he gets torched doing that with Edm and still won't stop shouldn't be a surprise.
ReplyDeleteI remember two things I took from his NYR string was: he used six forward pairs on the PK and this excited me and also that he used his fourth line a lot. I think Betts/Orr were two-thirds of that unit.
Renney had Lundqvist in NY to bail him out.
ReplyDeleteSmyth-Horcoff-Eberle start.
ReplyDeleteLooks like on bench you have
Hall-Gagner-Hesmky
Eager-Belanger-Jones
Harsky-Lander-Green
So he was like jim Dwyer in '89? I remember him and Candalaria for that stretch drive; mid aug maybe.
ReplyDeletethat quiz didn't mention scott aldred or rick schu so I wasn't impressed. I don't think they could stump me if it was from 82 on:)
Holy crap is that fourth line AWFUL.
ReplyDeleteThat's the kind of prayer a man can say kneeling beside the bed: God grant me rapture and bounty, but not yet. Amen. As the saying goes, there are no atheists in a topless sports bar.
ReplyDeleteWhen we recently had the pantry door open to Bilbo's favorite seed cake we got Colten Teubert and not one drop of Belgium Ale. Woodguy groaned with visions of sugar plum mountains, but in the aftermath (presently 29 2-6-8 -5 29 PIMs) it was a mite hasty to savage the furniture with our favorite walking stick when the world's largest wooden nickle failed to uncork the premium dram. Compare and contrast against 25 0-3-3 -2 with 2 PIMs. MPS, we miss you!
From the Anaheim pantry, the heirloom silver is likely being eyed up by the Scarborough-Baggins via some tricksy loophole. Tell me, where was that guy when he was here? Sure shined up nice at the center of the known universe on the other side.
Four weeks FFS. Damn isn't our invisible poltergeist becoming brazen in his senior year? Not even "I thought it was my skate boot" before nodding under the knife. Clever poltergeist has it figured. In sunny Rio they feel the chill and get goose bumps all over their tawny bottoms before you sneak up to pull your poltergeist stunt. Perhaps we need to equip our Zamboni guy with a Proton Pack and a Christopher Lloyd fro. We used to have such good ice.
That's mostly on DD.
ReplyDeleteInsists on spotting the other team a goal these days.
Well, they're in Dubnyk's head. I'd have pulled #40 just then.
ReplyDeleteThey look over-matched tonight.
ReplyDeleteanyone have an on-line feed?
ReplyDeleteAt least Boston is kicking the stuffing out of the Flames 7-0...
ReplyDeleteGlad to see the Flames losing so badly but wondering what the Bruins would be doing to the Oilers tonight.
Wow. Dubnyk is wandering crazily tonight.
ReplyDeleteI think thats a bad call on Eager.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't leave his feet and hits the guy in the shoulder.
Hall shows the superiority of location rather than speed on a point shot,
ReplyDeleteAnd freaking Jones in the crease.
Jones goes to the net without the puck better than any other not named Smyth.
Louie DeBrusk analyzing Eberle's shooting choices? Hilarious.
ReplyDeleteHemsky and Hall on the PP works. Renney should've figured that by now.
True, but it was pretty blind-side.
ReplyDeleteNice to see Hem-Gag-Hal keep it rolling.
Butler is working a -7 while the Bruins are up on Calgary 9-0.
ReplyDeleteThat's impressive.
Wow
ReplyDeleteSweden DOMINTATING russia
SOG 39-4!
Score 0-0.
Unreal
Flames letting Seguin run up the score in order to make Taylor Hall feel bad.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that's fair. Legal, but not fair.
Josh Green - assassinator of scoring chances. Yuck!
ReplyDeleteRussians doing the rope-a-dope in Calgary.
ReplyDeleteBoston being "dope" over Calgary in Boston.
Green gets to play the powerplay, but PRV never did.
ReplyDeleteFuck you Mr. Renney.
Fuck you very much.
What is Taylor Hall made of? MOON cheese?
ReplyDeleteGotta love that Eberle
ReplyDeleteBoy it's nice after so long to have a shoot first, ask questions later in Eberle.
ReplyDeleteOilers getting away with murder.
ReplyDeleteTJ Brodie Even on the night in a 9-0 loss.
ReplyDeleteImpressive young man.
Ebs being Ebs.
From Gagner.
DSF, the hockey universe is achieveing some balance tonight I would argue.
ReplyDeleteFor once, The Oilers are catching alot of breaks.
ReplyDeleteSome terrible calls against the blues
Am I the only one to notice that both Roman Polak and Ales Hemsky come from the Czech Republic. Hemsky was clearly a co-conspirator in that slash to the head; he must be traded before his pinko commie atttitude rubs off on the kids.
ReplyDeleteOilers beating a pretty good Blues team away, and the Flames slaughtered 9-0.
ReplyDeleteTurning into a decent night.
BELANGER!
ReplyDeleteHe's due.
Pang on the Blues feed is sounding like Garrett in Vancouver.
ReplyDeletePlay Sutton at F? He seems to have hands close to the net.
ReplyDeleteThat Klefbom rush was a thing of beauty.
ReplyDeleteSwedes are playing their hearts out in this game (as in Sweden vs Russia, not Oilers/blues).
ReplyDeleteKlefbom is all over the PK breaking up plays and making them going the other way.
ReplyDeleteI know xmas is over in most places in canada outside of NF - some places do it until jan 6th and O Christmas Day - but I feel like humming "what PP is this" when I see the Oil churning out chance after chance.
ReplyDeletejesus, you see the skill up front on some nights and you wonder why lowe isn't doing anything and including up to necromancy in order to find us a couple of real d.
I agree with bookie.
ReplyDeleteDennis,
ReplyDeleteAgree the PP is really worth watching this year.
V3.2 or his boss apparently do not understand how to build around these guys.
He's had 3 years to do it and failed miserably.
Even Tallon did it in CHI.
Assholes.
Two stupid penalties, two goals on the powerplay. Go figure. Hopefully the immediate nature of the punishment sticks in the Oilers' head.
ReplyDeletePotter dumb penalty=goal against
ReplyDeleteHall really dumb penalty=goal against.
Typical oilers
Dubnick's a horrible goalie.
ReplyDeleteOilers lose now.
0-0 Still in Swede vs Russia game. Shots are 117-11 for Sweden.
ReplyDeleteOh theo...
ReplyDeleteso bad
Tuebert never engaged the STL player screening DD. Just stood there and let him be tall in front of DD.
ReplyDeleteRookies.
Looks like the secret is out. Dubnyk is very weak when screened. Can we send him back to the AHL?
ReplyDeletePetry has either gained 30 lbs, hurt a leg or has slow-brain. He keeps getting beat clean.
ReplyDeleteWhat goalie is strong when screened? How is a goalie not being able to see the puck his fault? You've inadvertently suggested the nature of the real problem: the defence.
ReplyDeleteOilers have a good press going...lots of try.
ReplyDeleteSvenbjørgiongöössilindäbergsssssön!!!!
ReplyDeleteSweden Wins!
**** DEVAN DUBNYK.
ReplyDeleteNeeeeext!
jon k:
ReplyDeleteLook at every good NHL goalie when screened, he's trying to move around to get a good look at a shot.
Dubnyk just sits still, leaving way too much net open.
Surely our defense is much to blame, but Dubnyk has to anticipate the shot better, especially from longer angles.
Even Khabi can at least get a piece of that kind of shot on the last goal
"Oilers beating a pretty good Blues team away, and the Flames slaughtered 9-0.
ReplyDeleteTurning into a decent night."
Yeah -- just like the Oilers are "turning into a decent".
Devan Dubnyk is a rookie, but he's come to us with ALL blessings from ALL holy gods. Problem is, he is not a good goalie. More than ANYTHING, in the past two seasons, am I tired of "Dubnyks." He was crying the other day (sorry to say), and that's just not what we need. We've seen him on Oil Change saying "sorry guys" for shootouts, for losses, for winnable games. Dubnyk is shit, shit shit shit shit shit shit shit shit. Shittttttt!
ReplyDeleteDubnyk is not an NHL goalie, not a playoff goalie, not a winning goalie, he is NOTHING that good goalies are. END THE EXPERIMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Another game sacrificed to the God of Youth.
ReplyDeletewell, some good news tonight.
ReplyDeleteSweden wins junior gold in a defensive tour de force, holding Russia to 17 shots.
.. and the Oilers have the Swedish defenseman with the highest +/- in the tournament.
Bloggy - the good news is that you will never have anyone plagiarizing your insights.
ReplyDeleteDubnyk truly looks like a banana-slipping giraffe on ice. Thank GOD we've got Bunz coming up for the cup run.
ReplyDeleteHemmer is the dumbest smart hockey player I've ever seen. He refuses to accept that the best play can simply be throwing the puck at the net. I love watching the guy but I don't think he's ever going figure out this kinda stuff out.
ReplyDeleteSorry, just one more thing. For bookie. This is anecdotal, but recall what the two OKC goalies had to say:
ReplyDeleteWhen they were each asked whether they could stop Paajarvi's nice shootout goal, one of them said "yes, of course" and the other said "maybe, let's try". Who is Dubnyk?
Well boys, you hit a lot of posts, so to the degree that there's any consolation in that: take it.
ReplyDeleteLT - don't you mean sacrificed to Josh Green? The chances that talented players generated for him and he then wasted numbered at least 5.
ReplyDelete"Another game sacrificed to the God of Youth."
ReplyDeleteLT, are we learning? Are we getting better? If we're sacrificing on one side of the balance sheet, I hope we're gaining on the other.
I think we risk sacrificing games with nothing gained but bitterness, mistrust of teammates, blame for bad plays.... All that stuff that sent guys like Brule away :)
Let's get down to brass tacks. Horcoff. He's not the real captain and he's not a good captain. We need a badass D to come in an captain our team.
Hemsky 6th on the team in forward PP time. My how times have changed. Is his house for sale yet?
ReplyDeleteBloggy, i'll bite.
ReplyDeleteof course they are learning.
The Oilers put away 3 goals, on the road, against one of the best - if not THE best - defensive teams in the NHL.
They were themselves undone by mistakes, but that's just youth and Peckham and a bad night in goal. Stuff that we know is bad right now.
My criteria for success over the past 2 years has been whether the Oilers score three goals or more each game. Don't care how many they let in the other way. Last year was extremely disappointing in that regard. This year has not been nearly so disappointing, and the team is clearly progressing.
Could the team be progressing more rapidly? Sure, but the hyperbolic language of disaster does not accurately reflect the current situation.
Hemsky's like a red Fiat Spider convertable - When it runs it's paradise...but it's usually in the repair shop.
ReplyDeleteDubnyk's that 1980 Oldsmobile 4 door you bought during high school for 150.00 - just a totally shit car with no redeeming features whatsover .
Again: Can't anyone say anything specifically good about Dubnyk's ability? Or is it like Pouliot - a shit choice that didn't develop properly, but since Lowe picked him we're stuck with him?
Poor Hemsky. Nothing was going his way tonight. He was bobbling the puck, overskating plays, going off-side, getting the puck stolen from him..Oy. The good news is that he only got demolished once that I saw.
ReplyDeleteThere wasn't much really notable about this game other than the young Oilers struggle against physical teams, but we already knew that.
Smid looked good. Gagner is getting stronger on the puck. Dubnyk can be a little too relaxed sometimes. Horcoff back to winning draws is good news.
Flipping the channel, I'm not sure Canada would have stood a chance against that Swedish onslaught. Very impressive stuff.
Aww c'mon Bloggy. Don't get everyone started on Horcoff. We know we're stuck with his uselessness and 7 million dollar a season contract for as long as the sun sets in the west.
ReplyDelete@ striatic
ReplyDeleteThis was a RAL. (referee assisted loss)
In the second period the Blues were called for everything including a 5 minute major and a misconduct for what was at worst a two minute minor while the Oilers were tackling Blues players all over the ice.
The Oilers were on the PP for 11 minutes in the second period and still lost.
No accident that the Oilers scored 2 PP goals in the second period.
Otherwise the game wasn't even close.
In these big losses which we're supposed to learn from, I think about what I might learn as a player if I were on the team.
ReplyDeleteIf I were Eberle, I would have learned over the past two years: "don't trust anyone but yourself"
If I were Dubnyk, I would have learned "maybe this isn't my league"
If I were Hemsky, I would have learned "injuries can change your role altogether and you either fight it or become it"
If I were Hall, I would say "I can do better"
If I were Paajarvi, I'd say "NO MORE DEFENSE BULLSHIT, I'M ALL OFFENSE NOW"
And finally, if I were Horcoff, I would say "I suck as a captain. They call me a vet, I'm not even a vet."
Fussy Britches tweets...
ReplyDeleteOilers talking block buster deal 6 players total
Oilers talking to 2 teams
Tracy
ReplyDeleteTreenasOil Tracy
Oilers talking to 2 teams
4 minutes ago
Tracy
TreenasOil Tracy
Oilers talking block buster deal 6 players total
5 minutes ago
"In the second period the Blues were called for everything including a 5 minute major and a misconduct for what was at worst a two minute minor while the Oilers were tackling Blues players all over the ice."
ReplyDeletei disagree with that.. i think the penalty minutes were appropriate given the injury potential of the infractions.
"Otherwise the game wasn't even close."
i agree with that. it is no secret he Oilers are highly dependent on their power play right now. that said, last year the Oilers were worse *and* their power play sucked. so that's something.
Hall took ten stitches to the ear and it should have been a two minute minor?
ReplyDeleteAre you a hockey fan or just blither on someone's board? Friggin cockroach - Ptui
TreenasOil needs some competition. I'm starting a Twitter account whose avatar will by a topless woman, and every two days I will post "Oilers evaluating, not making any major roster moves - per Garfield".
ReplyDeleteWe'll see who's more accurate.
Steve - I'd follow that.
ReplyDeleteFollow it? You'd plagiarize it!
ReplyDeleteFussy Britches Update...
ReplyDeleteOilers have 2 deals on the table both with eastern teams APG
SS, that is hysterical.
ReplyDeleteI keep reading how the Oilers need a #1 D and that they can't possibly draft and develop one since it takes at least five years.
I decided to test this hypothesis. What I found tells a very different story.
First I took the top 30 minute eaters the last two years and this year to date. Yeah I know many of you will argue that this isn't a true representation of 1Ds. Tell me a better way?
Then I asked how long it took from the time they were drafted for them to reach the year where they would clearly have been the Oilers 1-D. By the way guys like Shea Weber would have been our 1 long before he was Nashville's. That said I think nearly every Oiler's fan would gladly take a defenseman whose development years look like Shea Weber or Nick Lidstrom etc.
In any case the average time was 3.4 years from draft. This sample set includes a lot of guys whose development time got extended by the lockout. Without the lockout the time falls to 3 years.
Now admittedly 1 of the guys each year took 8 years, 2 took 7, and 2 took 6. However 55% made it in 3 years or less (even with the lockout) and 43% have made it in 2 years or less. By the way all three samples include two or more guys taken after #230 in the draft. For example, Tobias Enstrom who was drafted by his current team in 2003 and arrived as their #1 in 2007-2008.
The typical pattern is two years of development post draft in AHL, SEL, or sheltered NHL minutes and then year 3 or 4 they arrive. Sometimes they are a bit protected even then, bascially headlining one of those Ds where every guy plays roughly the same minutes.
The 13 guys in the group of thirty for this year to date who made it in 2 years or less were all legitimate 1s by year 2, no free rides.
Interesting of top 30 so far this year and that list is still changing almost daily 13 were drafted by the team they play for, 10 came by trade, and 7 signed as free agents but two of those still play for the team that rescued them from undrafted oblivion. In other words if you limit your search to only #1D as defined by top thirty TOI in NHL then the most common way of getting one is to draft and develop. Trades come in two types - 40% are #1s who are known quantities and 60% are shots in the dark. Some of those trades get superstars (Dion Phaneuf) as do some free agent signings (Zdeno Chara) but most involve people that even hockey's most avid fans have to look up.
All I am trying to say is that the idea we can trade for a #1 at the prime of their career is unlikely and even signing a big minutes horse as a UFA is not probable. Nor is it necessary. By next year Petry and a recovered Whitney will fight for ice time with Gilbert and Smid. One of the prospects will be beginning to announce themselves as a true #1. If we were to add a mid-range free agent like Johnny Boychuk (who is finally getting it in Boston) we'd be just fine. Otherwise we keep drafting and get lucky and take a 0, straight to NHL 1D. It does happen.
Fussy B...
ReplyDeleteWashington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lighting both dealing with Oilers Tampa has a time limit on it's offer
Both involve taking on salary
ReplyDeleteIndeed Ribs. Treena is suggesting some players may be heading to TB / WSH for some salary.
ReplyDeleteTeams that need some extra scoring trying to push for the playoffs?
Some expensive D coming back?
Interesting... going to nhlnumbers right now.
So who could potentially come back to Edm?
ReplyDeleteLooking at those D corps, I don't even know who I'd like to take.
Apart from Carlson - he's going to be very good but that ain't happening.
Schultz or Hamrlik maybe?
As for TB, Ohlund or Brewer?
I dunno... I hope that if they do trade its sure as hell worth it, say taking on some salary for some good picks.
Then trade those picks for some actual D they can use and mentor the kids.
Fussy Britches drops the bomb...
ReplyDeleteHemsky Gagner and 2nd rd to Caps for 1st(Caps) ,Cody Eakin and Karl Alzner + Poti +3rd rd .....as per Garfield
Not reading this from anywhere else yet.
ReplyDeleteI guess these are the proposed deals. Not done.
ReplyDeletethe other is...
Khabibulin and Hemsky + 3rd to Tampa for Downie + 1st + Rolison. Lowe would like Carter Ashton and 2nd added...as per Garfield
Not sure what I think of that 1st proposed trade.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see Downie in Edmonton - he could use that kind of player. Pretty skilled too.
As for Khabby, sell high, right?
ok, looking at his numbers now, not sure what to think of Downie.
ReplyDelete"Shit-disturber with hands" comes to mind. The PK would sure get a lot of play.
Looking at the standings, TB is in 12th in the east right now. And how much of that is due to bad goaltending?
A trade would be refreshing. Let's hope that if it does happen, its a good one.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I like either of the deals. Hemsky and a 3rd for Downie and a 1st is better than the Penner deal...But not by much.
ReplyDeleteThe Washington deal gets us Alzner but we give up two of our top six forwards without anyone coming back.
That proposed WAS trade is far too good to be true.
ReplyDeleteA Hemsky rental and Gagner for Alzner, Eakin and a pick upgrade?
Unpossible.
If that deal was on the table, it would be done.
I like the Tampa one better, if we can get an additional high pick/decent prospect.
ReplyDeleteThe last year of Khabibulin's contract isn't enough to offset Downey for Hemsky
Washington's deal is not a good rebuilding deal. Alzner is a #2 at best, and he hits RFA right when the kids need to get their second contracts. Plus IMO that would be selling pretty low on Gagner even if Eakin is a nice prospect.
Plus with Hemsky playing in Tampa with Lecavalier, St. Louis and Stamkos he could really blossom and make Tambellini look bad.
ReplyDeleteBut methinks this leak by Fussy Britches is meant to drive the price up for other teams...
Imagine the Oilers playing St Louis or Boston in a playoff round. Something in the line of that commercial - "So Soft".
ReplyDeleteI might actually become an Eager fan. Damn, that big sucker can skate.
Rick: Dubnyk is definitely struggling right now. He's not fighting to see the puck through traffic like you'd want him to be.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think it's a confidence issue. He's so worried about having his butt stapled to the bench he's resorted to tentative play. He needs to be more aggressive.
The real killer is that the kid is taller than anyone else on the ice. All he needs to do is stand upright and look overtop of people. More often than not that puck would hit him in the gut.
Khabi's early season outer body experience has really affected Dubnyk in a negative way. Renney was blinded by the sexiness of those early season victories and neglected the guy who's likely to be carrying the mail for the next couple of years at least.
Dubnyk is a good goalie but he is struggling.