It's been tough to get a read on the OKC story this season. Injuries have had a major impact on the individual players, so the boxcars are tough to read. With the game tonight OKC will take a Christmas break, so I thought it might be an idea to give a very quick rundown on some of the roster. We've seen the interesting defensemen in Edmonton, here's the story on the Baron forwards.
- Linus Omark 7, 1-6-7 +2 before injury and he hasn't been back in some time. Omark started the season in Edmonton and should be back in the NHL at some point this season.
- Magnus Paajarvi 2, 0-0-0 E scored a beauty shootout goal and has been saying all of the right things about being demoted. I expect he'll get a recall when the organization moves Hemsky or if there's an injury (Gagner is banged up, so maybe he gets the call tomorrow).
- Phil Cornet 24, 15-3-18 +6 Cornet was the surprise of the fall in OKC, scoring goals on almost every shot until he eventually led the league in goals. An injury has him shelved but this is a player to watch in the second half.
- Gilbert Brule 24, 8-9-17 -3 Brule has been healthy and there's no sign of recall. My theory is that he's paying for past sins--there were times last season when the big league team badly needed him and Brule was unavailable. I could be wrong, but he's playing well and no one talks about him at all.
- Teemu Hartikainen 19, 8-5-13 +1 There are rumors that Hartikainen is about to return, I could see him getting some NHL time before the end of this season--certainly after the deadline.
- Tanner House 26, 4-5-9 +8 He's certainly playing regularly and has posted some offense this season. A center with a defensive reputation could end up being a recall should Lander get sent down.
- Tyler Pitlick 27, 4-5-9 -9 He's been up and down the lineup but appears to be playing quite a bit at center. Jim Byers has mentioned several times during his ON interviews that Pitlick brings a physical element. I am hoping he arrives at the big league level in time for Ryan Smyth to show him the ropes.
- Curtis Hamilton 22, 2-5-7 E Hamilton has certainly had fewer opportunities than Pitlick but appears to be earning more looks lately. Scored a goal in the team's last game on a nice shot.
I really hope MPS and Omark are a big part of the Oil's future. But something tells me that one or the other may not be around when the time comes for the Oilers to hoist Stanley.
ReplyDeleteEnd of the 1st.
ReplyDeleteOKC leading 3-2
Paajarvi 0G, 0A, 0P, +-0, SH:0
Well, that's it. Shoot him.
ReplyDeleteWhen it walks like a duck...
ReplyDeleteIf Brule is playing well, he may get claimed on re-entry waivers at half price if the big club tried to recall him. Money aside, it probably makes sense to keep Brule in OKC this year if he is getting significant icetime and is contributing to their success.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see O'Marra recalled and Lander sent down. There are not enough Ryans right now and O'Marra brings some crust and faceoff ability.
ReplyDeleteWould O'Marra or Brule have to go thru any kind of re-entry waivers given they are not on ELC's?
"odelyway" - the way of the dyslexic yodeler
@DSF
ReplyDeleteRemember Pajaarvi wasn't drafted to be a big scorer. His value, if he jumps through his "window of opportunity", will be as a strong, fast, two way player, with some hands, the kind that Cup winners need. The kind that if a team doesn't have usually won't win Cups.
Give him a little time. He is the kind of player the Oilers sorely lack.
@DSF
ReplyDeleteIt starts a disco craze? I don't get what the end of your analogy should be?
Except the time when Terrell Owens used it to talk about his supposedly 'feminine' teammate Jeff Garcia. Same teammate who is married to former Playmate of the Year Carmella DeCesare. In that case, his use of the old saying was totally apt.
In summary, the duck analogy you used is crap; very much the same thing you sling against the wall in hopes that it sticks.
And Lowetide, sorry for my comments, but tired of intelligent discussion here being dragged down in some form.
@Fast oil
ReplyDeleteAll true except he has no hands.
His shooting percentage in his last season in the SEL was 5.5.
I believe he could re-invent his game and become a vey good defensive player but he'll have to be far less timid to be effective.
I'm not sure you should draft that kind of player tenth overall when Kulikov is still on the board.
It appears some scouting staffs saw that when he fell in the draft.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure you should draft that kind of player tenth overall when Kulikov is still on the board.
It appears some scouting staffs saw that when he fell in the draft.
Kulikov 172gp 0.360pts/gm
Paajarvi 105gp 0.352pts/gm
The horror.
The horror.
10/11 5v5 pts/60
ReplyDeleteKulikov 1.04/60 (his 2nd NHL year)
Pajaarvi 1.36/60
What the hell was MBS thinking?!?!?
woodguy:
ReplyDeleteYou know that Kulikov is a defensemen, right?
DSF,
ReplyDeleteYou do know that a defensive player can't get any better than no goals given up don't you?
So why exactly would MPS have to change what he is currently doing in the AHL in order to be a defensive player.
Not to mention his incredibly low goals against per 60 while playing in the NHL suggest he might already be a way above average defensive player.
If you really want to make a trade any number of GMs would be happy to take a gamble on Pajaarvi, like say Doug Wilson.
Trading Pajaarvi is a Thrashers kind of move.
ReplyDeleteWtf, the guy got sent to the AHL - some of you seem to think he's already halfway to palookaville - well, he's not.
Pajaarvi imo is up there not far behind Hall/RNH/Eberle.
@ vor
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers gave up on him despite those staler defensive stats. That's why he's in the AHL. Because he has zero offence.
BTW...during his "breakout" offensive season in 10/11:
GFON/60 - 2.09
GAON/60 - 2.94
Hardly a paragon of virtue.
This season in a small sample size:
GFON/60 - 0.89
GAON/60 - 1.34
Radek Dvorak.
ReplyDelete@ WG.
ReplyDeleteAs Traktor noted...Kulikov is a 21 year old defenseman who is on pace for a 52 point season.
I think we can agree that might give folks pause for thought.
So DSF,
ReplyDeleteYou do know his offense is occuring in that same sample size, right?
Thus if his defensive skills are an illusion created by sampling problems so is his lack of offense, right?
Dennis: I don't remember Dvorak's defensive rep when he was a kid. Did they talk about him as a 2-way type?
ReplyDelete@ vor
ReplyDeleteOf course.
But to accumulate the stats he did last season, he would need to be afforded the top six and PP minutes he was gifted last season.
Not going to happen on almost any team in the league.
Paajarvi:
ReplyDelete3GP 0G 0A 0P 1 SOG
If the sample size is too small then we can conclude nothing about MPS offense. So your subsequent comments are pointless since you have no way of knowing any of it since the sample size is too small. A small sample size would render any and all information value contained there in null and void, right?
ReplyDeleteDragging in what would happen on other teams is totally irrelevant and also something you have absolutely no way of knowing, right?
Pajaarvi - still perfect on defence. Can't get any better than perfect can you DSF?
You know that Kulikov is a defensemen, right?
ReplyDeleteDammit!
I did know that.
In a rush to bait DSF I blew a tire.
LT: I wouldn't know, sir.
ReplyDeleteDennis: I don't remember Dvorak's defensive rep when he was a kid. Did they talk about him as a 2-way type?
ReplyDelete4 1/2 years ago some blogger named Lowetide wrote something about it here.
Not sure if paragraph 3 is part of the scouting report.
Looking back on drafts with 20/20 hindsight is a mug's game.
Every drafts have people passing up future Hall of Famers.
My favorite is the 87 draft where Sakic went 15th despite unreal numbers.
Apparently some scouts saw "something" that caused him to fall too.
Many lists had Paajarvi higher than 10th.
@ vor.
ReplyDeleteIf the best you can say about a player is that NOTHING happens when he is on the ice you might be in a spot of trouble.
Most good teams try and run a third line that can outscore the the other teams dregs.
Have a look at Jannik Hansen for reference.
@ Woodguy.
ReplyDeleteNot the first time nor the last, I'm sure. :)
Kulikov FTW Alex.
Vor and others...I'm not sure this is an argument you want to keep engaging in. At this point in time it seems clear that Kulikov is the better bet.
ReplyDeleteNow if you want to question the point of why this is a discussion...that seems more admirable. Did DSF and/or Trak strongly condemn the MPS pick (in favour of Kuli) at the time?
If yes, congrats. Let's move on.
If no, let's move on.
Paajaarvi is having a shitty year. It's a real concern...arrows and all that stuff. He's certainly a valuable prospect and he's exactly where he should be, playing big minutes in a lesser league.
jeebus, my word verification is insest
@ Woodguy.
ReplyDeleteNot the first time nor the last, I'm sure. :)
I earned that.
Dennis: me either, although damned if WG didn't find the scouting report.
ReplyDeleteAs for Paajarvi, I was happy with the pick but wanted Jordan Schroeder. Thank goodness Magnificent Bastard doesn't read the blog. :-)
O'Marra with 1g 1a +1 tonight in an OT win.
ReplyDeleteThat gives him 14pts in 21 games and +10.
He didn't look like a downgrade from Lander when he was up.
Would like to see Lander get some time in OKC as well.
He's drowning up here.
So is Petrell.
ReplyDeleteAs for Paajarvi, I was happy with the pick but wanted Jordan Schroeder. Thank goodness Magnificent Bastard doesn't read the blog. :-)
Was just reading the post for when MPS was picked.
You really like Glennie too.
Won't hold that against you.
DSF,
Were you Fake Craig MacTavish back then?
Tracy
ReplyDeleteTreenasOil Tracy
Tambilini has been given the green light to shop Hemsky but Lowe must approve return Lowe still keen on keeping him
31 minutes ago Favorite Reply
Seems to me MPS could follow the same path as this guy:
ReplyDeletedrafted 23rd overall in 2003
03/04 5 pts in 28 NHL games
04/05 AHL
05/06 23 in 82
06/07 16 in 48
07/08 37 in 80
08/09 59 in 82
Yeah, that's DSF's very own Ryan Kesler.
Has Bra and Panties been right on anything in the last year?
ReplyDelete@Ducey,
ReplyDeleteShe had a great run the week of free agency ... since then ... well, she's been Eklund-like really.
@DSF
ReplyDeleteI'll agree that Pajaarvi needs to be more aggressive. I don't know if you notice my comments here and there but I have said that and also that Gagner needs to play like he's pissed off as well. And keep doing it.
If you don't want to play a physical game (in the paint so to speak) in the NHL you had better score a ton.
It is hard to admit that DSF is right, trolling douchebag that he is. But at this point not only does it look like Kulikov was the better pick, I don't think it will be too long before we also think Ryan Ellis or Rundblad would have been better picks.
ReplyDeleteI can tell you if either were offered in a trade I would take it quick.
That being said, I would like to argue that Tambellini isn't the idiot he is presented as being. I get the impression he is relatively dishonest with the media, that he thinks many things that he never says, and that he truly does have a plan to draft high this year, but not number 1, DFL. I think he signed Belanger and Barker so we would have minor improvements but not good enough to draft outside of the top 5-10.
I think this is the mandate given by his boss and there isn't much he can or will do about it. Remember that Tambo was the Kevin Prendergast in Vancouver for ten years and he brought in many of those mid-late round picks or undrafted free agents that have become very good players like Bieksa, Edler, Hansen, Salo, and Burrows. He was in charge of the player development system that enabled those seemingly mediocre players develop into really good ones. He was in charge of player personnel when Vancouver drafted Kessler, Bieksa and Raymond.
I read an article in the Calgary Sun about a year ago where that ahole Eric Francis said he had a few drinks with Tambellini and after Tambo loosened up he said that he spent the first year in edmonton evaluating and determined that they had nothing...mediocre NHL talent, no good prospects, no farm team, no development system, and was happy when they tanked enough in 09-10 for the others in mgmt to let them blow it all up.
I know he went after Heatley and Khabi but we have learned since that Lowe wanted Heatley and Quinn wanted Khabi.
I think he has made some other bad moves, the biggest one in my opinion was trading Cole for O'Sullivan, and it is my theory that Daum was fired for giving a good recommendation on POS leading to what I would argue was Tambo's worst move.
Now here we are looking like a borderline lottery team, marginally better than a year ago. Funny that the last two DFL finishes were blamed on Hemsky and Whitney's injuries, yet here they come back and Whitney is the worst dman while Hemsky in invisible. They are both basically still injured and should just go back on injured reserve imo.
After Tanguay's shoulder injury/operation in Montreal he had a terrible year in Tampa and I think the Oilers would regret trading him for the little he would return at this time. I would try to sign him to a 2 year value contract and I bet next year he is rejuvenated with the extra rehab time along with not having to worry about the contract or being traded. Tanguay played very well last year and this, and in my mind is a very similar player to Hemsky.
Someone here posted either this summer or last the stats on the average number 8 dman playing more minutes than the average second line winger. Who was that and do you have those stats? It is true here as Petry was number 8 out of camp and he plays a ton of minutes. I would love to forward that info to Tencer and Stauffer who keep using the dmen injuries as an excuse. The reality is mgmt should expect the dmen to get injured and have 9-10 who can play at this level or you get what we have. Now that being said, I think Tambo wanted the Oilers to suck this year but I wish they would just say that instead of blaming it on injuries that are not only likely but pretty much guaranteed with all dmen, not just the Oilers'.
The only problem I have with this PRV discussion is that DSF has yet to create a blog and put his thoughts up for others to throw darts at, instead of always being the loudmouth know-it-all at the back of class (good at disturbing but precious little else). I guarantee there would be good traffic on that site.
ReplyDeleteIMO, which is worth nothing, PRV will work it out but will always be poorly regarded vis-a-vis the wonderboys,a nd it will likely cost him a spot on the Oilers (much like it will cost Hemsky this spring).
Fans are dumb like that.
Howcome when I read a report like the Treena's Oil blog I see ST as Charlie McCarthy sitting On Lowe Expectations knee?
ReplyDeleteAgree with WG wholeheartedly. Like to see O'Marra here over Lander. Didn't think he looked bad at all in his brief stint.
O'Marra vs. Lander is asking whether the deck chairs should be angled at 45 degrees or 47.5.
ReplyDeleteBut to accumulate the stats he did last season, he would need to be afforded the top six and PP minutes he was gifted last season.
ReplyDeleteI'm calling BS on that last comment. Last year there was all kinds of talk about Eberle and Hall getting the cherry minutes on the top 6 and Paajarvi getting buried on the 3rd/4th lines. About the best he did for linemates were Gagner and Omark, who created some but gave up quite a bit more. Hardly spent any time with Horcoff, Hemsky, or Penner. Finished 7th in TOI/G, almost 2 minutes behind the guy in 6th. In QualTeam he ranked 15th among the 16 Oilers with 20+ GP.
On the PP he also ranked 7th in TOI/G, nearly 45 seconds behind the guy in 6th. The lion's share of time he did get was manning the point, not exactly the place to be "gifted" big stats.
For those of you who don't like the sophisticated math of corsi I offer the following.
ReplyDeleteIn the four games since MPS was demoted our third and fourth line have have managed 1 point on 14 shots and are collectively -6. In the last four games Pajaarvi played they managed 11 points on 27 shots and were collectively +4. It certainly seems to me that demoting Pajaarvi made all his usual linemates better players and the Oilers a better team. I think before we all say MPS was having a sucky season we might give a thought to who he was playing with.
While I would agree with Bruce that he played in a very similar situation last year, his quality of opposition was 15th and his quality of teammates was 22nd this year and 15th and 23rd last year, I think it misses the staggering improvement in MPS +/- per 60 from -0.85 per 60 last year to -0.45 this year.
I suspect both changes have something to do with the actual linemates he has played with. In our fixation with boxcars we are missing real progress and an emerging talent. His with and without numbers will be through the roof.
Khabibulin is having an oustanding season. My eye tells me he is playing as well as I have ever seen. It's not yet Christmas and already his 20-bell saves* fill a full highlight reel.
ReplyDeleteI can't think of a trade that wouldn't harm the team's psyche unless a Ryan Miller level contract dump is coming back. I guess if he's part of bringing back a decent defenseman, the players would buy into it. Otherwise I think trading Khabby would generate some anger and disappointment. No one wants to get sent out to the firing squad game in and game out. These guys need some hope while losing, some belief there's a chance of future wins, despite the team's lies about being truly serious about the playoffs.
If the intent was to win this year, it's difficult to rationalize the Dustin Penner trade. Under the New Regime it appears that long term goals are going to take precedence over short term goals. And long-term, that's probably going to be a good thing. We can sit here and criticize the "Braintrust" and Katz, but it's very likely that their timeline doesn't match the one our patience has. I'm sure they hoped for the playoffs, (and they're always a goal) but given they were unsure on RNH at the get-go means it must have been a pretty slim hope, despite their words to the Press.
Can we agree that long term is more important than the short term?
And, if so, can we agree it's pretty important to be patient and careful in the short term so as not to fuck up the long term? It seems more important to me to be good for a long time rather than right now.
That said the long term is becoming the short term pretty damn fast. If Hemsky gets traded for futures, it's going to be pretty disappointing. And obviously no one has offered anything really good, or he'd already be gone.
I'm in the camp that he should be signed short term. It may be however that the Oil have offered it and Hemsky is unhappy with it. Or it could be that he's been offered a one year but he wants a payday in return and the Oil are unwilling. In which case they'll take what they can get rather than lose him to free agency.
Short term hold on Hemsky makes the most sense to me because I don't foresee a trade return that helps us make the playoffs next year or the year after. Would the Sabres be willing to trade Gaustad for example? Is there a decent defenseman he could pull? If it's a pick and a prospect, like Penner, then how serious is this team about making the playoffs next year?
And short term makes sense because they're easy contracts to trade. And I can't see Hemsky's value being lower than now except when he's IR. A consideration to be sure, but I'd rather risk it and see if he can mprove and trade him when he's playing better, if he's not a long term fit. He's way below his benchmarks for production; this is not the right time to trade just as signing UFAs after peak seasons is bad timing too.
But maybe short term has already been tried and failed. I doubt it, but it's a possibility.
I think Tambellini has proven over and over that attitude is a priority to him and how it affects the culture he's trying to instill and I think that is why Tamby's been (allegedly) pushing to trade Hemsky. And that makes me fear a big haircut on his value. Greece big.
*not a highlight reel. It is however a neat little obit from the past on a Canadian sports legend.
If Hemsky goes as a UFA, the return is cap space. If he gets dealt at the deadline the return is futures and cap space.
ReplyDeleteEither way the trick is to sign/acquire a real player with some of that cap space.
@ Bruce.
ReplyDeleteA quick check of the facts would have shown you Paajarvi was actually second on the team among forwards in TOI last season at 1,231:05 behind only the redoubtable Andrew Cogliano and more than Eberle, Hall, Hemsky and Horcoff because of their injuries.
I think it's fair to assume that, if those players had been healthy, Paajarvi would NOT have received all those minutes and his production would have been reduced accordingly.
Just to put that into "context".
Paajarvi played 1,231:05 last season.
Alex Burrows played 1,226:17.
His PPTOI was 5th on the team at 147:18.
So, given that he ended up 9th among forwards in 5V4 P/60, (at a paltry 3.45) I think it's eminently reasonable
that any coach would seek a better option.
And they did.
Burrows scored 9 points in his sophomore season.
ReplyDeleteThe "problem" with Paajarvi is that Renney is a lousy coach.
ReplyDeleteRenney looked like a semi-competent coach with the Rangers because the Eastern Conference was weak and he had Lundqvist. As soon as the Eastern Conference began to get better with Crosby's Pens, the Flyers, the Capitals and the Bruins, Renney's Rangers began going backwards.
It is good Paajarvi is getting ice time, but all his time in the AHL is really wasted time. He is not a scorer. His offence won't come till his mid-twenties. He should be developed as a shutdown/matchup player, and he is already ready to be trained to execute that role at the NHL level, if the Oilers actually had a competent coach.
"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDeleteO'Marra vs. Lander is asking whether the deck chairs should be angled at 45 degrees or 47.5.
In your opinion of course yes? Much better to just whine about the 4th being a useless appendage vs trying to improve it...even to a small degree.
And we've all seen enough of O'Marra to make an educated opinion I guess?
No, there might be a legitimate reason that the deck chairs would be better positioned at 47.5 degrees; it's just unlikely to be a terribly consequential one.
ReplyDeleteTo flamingpavelbure - from the Detroit thread....
ReplyDeleteWhat you are looking for is the 26-27-60 formula which is a rule of thumb more than anything. If a NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level. Obviously there are exceptions but it raises red flags if not adhered to.
spOILer: The write-down on Greek debt was valued at about 50% (depends on the creditor) and I'd be willing to accept that in Hemsky's case if we were starting with his highest value (nearly a PPG player). In fact, such a valuation would probably be the starting point for a reasonable exchange. That said a 2 year deal at $4-$4.5M is my preference (unless he can be worked into a d-man package).
ReplyDeleteAside from the notable issue of bringing in more defensive help, I still maintain that one of the biggest problems with this team is Renney's steadfast refusal to construct a 4th line that matters. He refuses to put Belanger down there, despite the fact that 20 could solidify a good defensive unit. He'd rather play him as a winger, which is crazy to me. Play him with Jones and Eager and you could have a pest/defensive line that you could play 8-10 mins a night (Jones and Belanger could then beef up on PK time). This would also solve the Lander/Petrell problems (that they're getting killed at 5x5). Obviously this isn't helped by injuries to players that could make up a 3rd scoring line (Omark, Harski, etc.) but it's something to think about for January. Of course, maybe it's an ego thing, but if that's the only reason (no one wants to be a 4th liner), it should be remedied and fast.
A quick check of the facts would have shown you Paajarvi was actually second on the team among forwards in TOI last season
ReplyDelete@DSF: That's rich, you admonishing me about being fast and loose with the facts.
Your original point in this post - the one before you moved the goalposts yet again - was about Paajarvi getting "gifted" top 6 minutes. He didn't get any such thing on a game to game basis, and only accrued higher total minutes than many teammates due to his playing 80 games and virtually everybody else playing less than 70. But it had nothing to do with him being gifted anything, he was just a survivor.
By the closing weeks of the season when he finally did get some bigger minutes night to night, all of his potentially talented linemates were on IR, and he was "gifted" time with Cogliano or VandeVelde playing against the toughs.
I think it's fair to assume that, if those players had been healthy, Paajarvi would NOT have received all those minutes and his production would have been reduced accordingly.
Paajarvi had splits of 10-14-24 in his first 60 games, and 5-5-10 in his last 20, when his ice time did increase marginally due to the injuries. But he was scoring at a rate of 0.4 P/GP throughout the first 3/4 of the season when he was mainly a bottom sixer, and increased it slightly to 0.5 when his ice time got bumped.
His 20-game splits of 6, 9, 9, and 10 points suggested, at minimum, consistent secondary scoring, obviously with potential for improvement given he was all of 19 years old playing on a shitty team. Needless to say his start to this season (25 GP, 0-3-3) is a more prolonged lack of production than anything he demonstrated at any time last year. It's disappointing for sure, but I don't think you can draw a solid line connection from his rookie season to what he's done this year, whether in the time he played in the bottom six (most of the year) or in the top six (the end of the season). He produced in both situations with subpar linemates, and this year, still playing with subpar linemates, has taken a step back.
If your point of the moment is "he's having a lousy year" we can agree. If it's
"he was always a bum", well, you can launch that balloon all on your own.