Some may feel Paajarvi is headed in the same direction. I think it's too soon to tell. Let's see what math tells us.
Magnus Pääjärvi 10-11
5x5 points per 60: 1.36 (8th among regular forwards)
5x4 points per 60: 3.45 (6th among regular forwards)
Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
Corsi Rel: 3.2 (7th best among regular forwards)
Zone Start: 51.6% (5th easiest among regular forwards)
Zone Finish: 52.4% (4th best among regular forwards)
Shots on goal/percentage: 180/8.3% (8th among F's>100 shots)
Boxcars: 80gp, 15-19-34
Plus Minus: -13
So, as a teenage rookie Paajarvi didn't get the push enjoyed by the two other kids (understandably) until injuries started to impact the roster. It was a solid rookie year, boxcars are fine and he does well in Corsi Rel. Now he certainly had the push in zone starts and his shooting percentage is no screaming hell, but on the other hand he wasn't jumping over the boards with 99 and Kurri.
Magnus Pääjärvi 11-12
5x5 points per 60: 0.67 (13th among regular forwards)
5x4 points per 60: nil
Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
Corsi Rel: 8.11(3rd best among regular forwards)
Zone Start: 50.9% (8th easiest among regular forwards)
Zone Finish: 55.0% (4th best among regular forwards)
Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots, no goals
Boxcars: 25gp,0-3-3 -2
Plus Minus: -2
These numbers for MP are a little misleading. He has three even strength points in 273 even strength minutes, meaning that he'd be on par with last year at six even strength points. I do think the demotion was warranted and the young man clearly has the right attitude based on reports.
Paajarvi has not played with the best possible linemates but he also failed to create miles of chances this season. I think it is extremely premature to suggest he is a failed prospect and believe the time in OKC is a great opportunity for him. No hurries returning, and let's remember there were some nice things on his resume during his season and a bit in the NHL.
However, let's frame the issue propely. Paajarvi's Oilers are well below average at evens (NHL average at even strength so far this year is 68 goals; Oilers have 59) and the young man wasn't part of the PP solution. Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water. He's wide by three points, and considering luck and linemates I'm willing to believe this is a lot about circumstance.
THere are a few numbers in there that really stand out for me:
ReplyDeleteThe kid has played tougher minutes with some of the worst linemates available. The puck moves in the right direction, and not only is he not converting, but no one else is around him either. He's getting shots through, but nohting is going in. Yet, even with all that, he's only -2. So without digging at behind the net, it looks like he's not getting killed defensively. Guy's just getting killed by the percentages.
One thing that isn't on here are all the penalties he's drawn. Buddy's sure got a talent there.
Jordan: Agreed. MP didn't (iirc) get a lot of good looks with solid linemates this season. Put him in the Ryan Jones seat and who knows?
ReplyDeleteNice article LT. MP has been my favourite prospect to follow, other than Eberle (Hall went straight to the NHL so I never considered him a prospect really), since he was drafted. I've held high hopes that he can become at least a 50-60 point scorer, and I do sometimes have to admit that that dream is fading gradually... BUT then I remember, hang on - this guy is just 20 years old, has only 1-and-a-bit NHL seasons under his belt, and has played generally in less than favourable circumstances. He's getting the Gagner treatment by some, in that people are writing him off at such a young age because he isn't producing like the 3 Canadian boys.
ReplyDeleteI really wish people would have some damn patience from time to time - I'm as anxious as anybody for all our young guys to turn into the next bunch of HOFers, but these things take time.
He may never turn into the good scoring forwarded we thought he'd be, or on the other hand, he could. To put it simply for everybody out there, IT COULD GO EITHER WAY.
He is not a bust, he is not the second coming. He is just a young guy finding his way in the league. We should consider ourselves lucky that Eberle and Hall aren't suffering similar slumps.
Only one number matters at this point, to me at least:
ReplyDelete20.
As in, his age. Kid doesn't even turn 21 until after this season is complete.
So anyone writing him off in terms of what his upside might be? I'd suggest booking in for the outpatient surgery and requesting the cranial-rectal-extraction procedure. Patience is a virtue that seems to be in short-supply around these parts sometimes...
@HBomb - well said, exactly my point too.
ReplyDeleteHey all, sorry to take from the Maggie discussions (they are solid, Im hoping like hell for him).
ReplyDeleteJust curious if you think we could pry Chris Stewart from St Louis. He seems to have fallen out of favor with Hitchcock. He must have some training/attitude issues but our top 6 needs a power forward in a bad way.
STL is bottom 5 in the NHL in scoring and has an abysmal PP. Would Hemsky be enough? Too much?
It would be one thing if MP was playing on the top 2 lines and was putting up the boxcars he had. But as LT has shown - and Jordan points out, for the quality of linemates and opportunity he's making the best of the situation.
ReplyDeleteFrankly it's refreshing that they made a decision to give him some time in OKC to find his game. I would like to see Lander have the same opportunity. After the trade deadline, maybe you bring them back (or with the next major injury).
But the priority should be to allow these guys to develop in opportunities that create success, not ones that only increase the pressure.
It would be one thing if MP was playing on the top 2 lines and was putting up the boxcars he had. But as LT has shown - and Jordan points out, for the quality of linemates and opportunity he's making the best of the situation.
ReplyDeleteFrankly it's refreshing that they made a decision to give him some time in OKC to find his game. I would like to see Lander have the same opportunity. After the trade deadline, maybe you bring them back (or with the next major injury).
But the priority should be to allow these guys to develop in opportunities that create success, not ones that only increase the pressure.
You're not going to math this one out guys. We're not at the stage of wondering whether he's struggling (he is) and there's very little indication that he's headed down the tubes.
ReplyDeleteMagnus' problem right now is largely positioning and his ability to read ahead of the play. A lack of confidence then feeds both these issues and makes them worse. He needs to sort both of these out with a fresh head. At that stage, he'll be fine. OKC is a great place for him to do that, remembering of course that it won't necessarily be reflected in a huge rush of offence (this is after all a league where Mr. Jacques can score, HAHAHAHA).
He's never going to bea tremendous scorer, but he should be an absolutely fabulous 2-way winger who keeps pucks alive in the offensive zone or transports them through the neutral zone for his line mates.
He needs to watch some tape of Eberle. The guy is always positioned well and is reading three steps ahead. That's why his goals often appear as though they came from nowhere. Hall's good and not-so-good games are differentiated by this as well.
Magnus is a smart hockey player. He'll figure it out. Either that or make him a defenseman. He could very well be an excellent one.
Jordan: He might get shots on goal, but he hasn't been creating scoring chances and is on pace for a Colin Fraser like scoring chance total offensively. His usual linemates this season aren't doing anything either so he's not getting much offensive help but I don't think luck is entirely to blame for his offensive woes this season.
ReplyDeleteThis AHL stint will be revealing on that front. I'll list what his peers from the 2009 1st round have done in the AHL this season as a benchmark to measure his performance.
Paajarvi 3 0-0-0
Schenn 7 6-6-12
Kadri 22 8-14-22
Glennie 23 3-6-9
Kassian 18 7-7-14
Holland 23 8-10-18
Leblanc 14 4-6-10
Schroeder 27 6-6-12
Caron 5 1-4-5
Palmeiri 18 17-9-26
Paradis 24 1-5-6
Ashton 30 14-10-24
I'm thinking at least a 0.8 PPG should be expected from him in the AHL but probably should be at the point per game mark like Kadri, Schenn, or Palmeiri.
For me:
ReplyDeleteLast year:
MP played with alot of 3's and 4's
Omark played with alot of 3's and 4's.
Then hall went down March 3, Gagner, March 9, Horcoff march 13.
Hartikainen got called up for March 17. he saw alot of 4th till march 26 when he started to play with Omark, Paajarvi.
From March 17 12GM
Omark 2G 7A .75PPG Even 10.5%
MP 5G 2A .6PPG -5 11% shooting
Harti 3G 2A .42PPG 9.5%
from March 26
Harti
8GM 3G 1A Even .625PPG 18.8%
Hmmm quality teamates and he is strong on zone entry, Draws penalties and creates space.
Smyth-RNH-Eberle
Hall-Horc-MP
Harti-Gagner-Omark
Eager-Belanger-Jones
This is better than what we put out now.
He's only 20 and he can skate like the wind BUT he avoids traffic like the plague, stays away from the wall for the most part, couldn't score a goal if his life depended on it and is in the Minors at Christmas time with "zero" goals!! Not much more discussion required. And don't give me the Ryan Jones "what if"?... Jones battles for his goals and is the hardest working player on the team... with Smid maybe. My prediction, for what it's worth, is that by age 23 he'll back in the Swiss Elite league in journeyman status. Wonderful kid tho.
ReplyDeleteOnce it is apparent the playoffs are out of reach before the trade deadline (which may be sooner than later), the Oiler’s roster should be adjusted so that a third line can be constructed with:
ReplyDeleteMPS-Lander-Harski
Give them meaningful minutes. If they thrive, great. If they’re just coping, that’s okay too, at least then they are learning what it takes to play at the NHL level, and we’re closer to Grigorenko.
MPS-Lander-Harski
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see these guys as the 2nd line in OKL, playing PK and PP minutes.
Bring them up when they prove the can dominate at that level.
What Ducey said, other than I'd prefer First line in OKC. Somebody around here suggested this idea a while back, and it makes a lot of sense. An after-Xmas option, which is when Harski is due back.
ReplyDeleteGiven that Oilers are rebuilding, isn't it preferable for the management to sit on their hands, rather than trying to be proactive ala the 90's Islanders?
ReplyDeleteAll of the successful rebuilt teams since the lockout took many years to improve. Oilers are going to take this season and flush it from all expectations; as if management is saying to the players ' you're shit and since you can't get better yourselves, we're letting you rot until draft day.'
Re defencemen: Obviously the management expects to land a Weber calibre player, through trade or, as I also suspect through UFA.
I think MPS is creating more chances than his opposition- that is what both his corsi and shot totals per 60 minutes are saying. He just isn't scoring. Pajaarvi's PDO and shooting percentage numbers suggest he will probably always have streaks where he can't produce offense no matter who he plays with. Though playing with boat anchors doesn't help.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is in part that(as LMHF1 pointed out in a previous response) MPS scores best in transtion. Usually cutting through centre ice and getting the puck from a team mate. When that play isn't there he has real trouble being effective to the outside. This is because Pajaarvi hasn't mastered Eberle's great step in move. It can, however, be learned. He also won't dump and chase even though with his size and speed that would be a great option and make NHL D-men hate him. It is that latter reluctance that has so many people down on him.
So mostly this year his offensive options have been throw the puck at the net or try to make a play from behind the net. Pajaarvi cheats for defence and certainly doesn't get the point of body contact. On the other hand some of our guys are a bit too happy to court disaster.
Suggesting he isn't hard working flies in the face of the evidence you can see each game. Not only does Pajaarvi skate miles he gets in the way and moves the puck forward. Most of MPS speed seems to be wasted in endless circles but that has nothing to do with how hard he is working.
The math says Pajaarvi is an outplayer. It also says he is getting better on defence. I think if he had played all year with a healthy Eager and an effective Belanger he might well be seen as a key part of the future. Fernando Pisani V2.
The big mystery for me is why the Oilers won't use him on the penalty kill. Nor why they won't see if Pajaarvi can produce the same sort of defensive outcomes against better competiton while playing with better linemates. I kept wanting them to stick him out with a couple of the other kids when the Oilers are on the road to see if he could help them tilt the ice back towards the other teams net.
I can see letting MPS, Lander and Hartikianen learn to play together in the AHL. It would be good for them as a future line. I don't know enough about Todd Nelson to guess whether or not he would even play them together. Does anybody have a clue if he would? He seems to like to win and to do his best to get that outcome regardless of who he is supposed to be developing.
ReplyDeletePaajarvi is not a typical forward prospect. He is an NHL player everywhere but in the offensive zone, where he is still learning, because he grew up playing defence.
ReplyDeleteSo don't expect him to light up the AHL either where your typical offensive prospect is scoring lots of points while learning defensive reliability.
Paajarvi lacks offensive instincts in the O-zone right now, but all the requires is playing him with an Omark or a Hartikainen who know where the scoring area is, and take the play there. They would lead the "horse" to "water".
Paajarvi is great at facilitating the puck up the ice (as evidenced by his good Corsi numbers) and is defensively reliable. In the offensive zone, for a few years, he will be a complementary player needing someone else to "drive-the-bus" there.
He really belongs in the NHL, with a specific plan for a role and ice time (which should include penalty-killing) because he is one of the Oilers six best wingers.
The only real benefit to being in the AHL is the next coach (Todd Nelsen) getting to work with him directly.
Hopefully, Renney will be gone next summer.
We miss Omark a lot. I blame Renney. That is all.
ReplyDeleteSomeone brought up the Dvorak comparison on here or HF awhile back when it was becoming apparent he needed to be sent down--some thing to the effect of, "I'm starting to think he'll be more Dvorak than Hossa."
ReplyDeleteCan we temper our expectations to match that? Radek Dvorak is a quality, quality player. Elite checker, I would say, who can play spot duty in a teams top 6, be relied on to chip in 15-20 goals and 35-40 points a year. With Paajarvi's speed and size, defense that's been better than advertised and offense that's been worse, I think it works. I can be happy with a Dvorak. Dvoraks help teams win games.
Can we cool our jets and be content if he doesn't end up as a top 6 player?
Pajaarvi reminds me more of Gainey - he's already an NHL player defensively which by itself is no mean feat.
ReplyDeleteNever scoring in Edmonton won't do him any favours. He, like several other current members of the 'big team' should be in the AHL and leave the losing to Hemsky, Horcoff etc.
I find ranking Zone Shift to be far more enlightening than ranking Zone Finish.
ReplyDeleteIf you rank by Zone Finish you can finish behind a guy getting far better starts, essentially making the ranking meaningless.
I like his Zone Shift numbers over last years and his Rel Corsi improvement over last year. I think to some degree we are seeing the effects of small sample size and the effects of luck. Linemates can't be much of an effect if we can trust the QUAL#s.
We probably need Vic to tell us, but I would be curious to know what would be acceptable sample sizes for the various numbers. I feel intuitively, because most coaches generally following the same philosophies game in and game out, that the Zone#s require less sample size than Corsi or GFON/60 to be considered reflective of reality.
I have no problem with Paajarvi going down, but for me that's a matter of giving him the minutes, especially on special teams, to develop, to figure out his game, to learn what he needs to do to survive.
Why go there?
ReplyDelete- Tom Renney
Gregor at ON mentioned in his post today that Gagner-Lander-Jones was a line at practice. i like the look of that. Give Lander a chance to play with actual players or send him down to play with MPS and both get their O games going.
ReplyDeleteYep, it is time to decide to play Lander more, or send him down early enough to OKC to get him integrated into the Barons for the Calder Cup run.
ReplyDeleteMy only concern with MPS is the lack of good scoring ops. Love the size and speed, wish he was a little less gunshy along the boards, but really wish he'd even just rung a few hard shots off posts, goalies heads, etc. Anything at all rather than the soft shots he did manage to direct at the net.
ReplyDelete"Oh, Maggie, Maggie Mae, they have taken you away
ReplyDeleteAnd you'll never walk down Lang Street anymore
You robbed so many sailors, and the captains of the whalers
You're a dirty, rotten, no good, Maggie Mae"
Sorry, saw the title and immediately this song by the Rovers (and others) popped into my head...me and the bro, who is in a uptempo irish cover band, sing this out when we have a few beverages.....nice title LT.
Really rooting for this guy. I think he can make some adjustments and be a really good player. Thought that of Cogliano too so....
Riley Nash got called up today on an emergency basis.
ReplyDeleteLast year he was scoring at .405 ppg in the AHL (32 pts in 79 games). This year he has dropped to .290 ppg - just 9 points in thirty one games with a -8.
It's pretty obvious that MPS is struggling.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention that he's a perimeter player with a pedestrian shot, and lunch pail hands.
The size and speed are gifts that he could use to get to the dangerous areas before averyone else, and become an effective player. Unfortunately he's softer than Mr Whipples Charmin. I've never seen a guy bail 100% of the time like he does. He has no interest in taking a hit to make a play. He disguises it well, but the charade must wear thin when you're playing with him, and he takes the scenic route to the corner just in time to see the puck moved out... Gosh darn it.
I have no idea if that can be fixed, but the list of butter soft swedes with poor shots, and averagr hands, that develop into forwards, is most likely shorter than Gagners inseam.
"You're a dirty, rotten, no good, Maggie Mae"
ReplyDeleteHuh, the lyrics that popped into my head were "Wake up, Maggie ..."
If you rank by Zone Finish you can finish behind a guy getting far better starts, essentially making the ranking meaningless.
@spOILer: But if you rank by ZoneShift, the guy with the tough starts has nowhere to go but up, and the guy starting at the good end nowhere but down.
I analyzed this in some depth a few years ago, corrected for plus/minus (which are end zone results disguised as subsequent neutral zone faceoffs), and came up with a decent formula of Expected Zone Finish was simply Zone start normalized 70% of the way toward 50/50. e.g. if ZoneStart = 40%, EZF = 47%; of ZoneStart = 60%, EZF = 53%.
Note "Zone Shift" is positive in one case, negative in the other. I don't put a lot of stock in that number alone without context.
e.g. RNH has a Zone Start of 67.0% and a Zone Finish of 59.3%. This is a raw ZoneShift of -7.7% which looks kind of sucky. Add +22/-18 for actual goals for and against (BtN stats which exclude empty netters and other odd-man goals) to O- and D-zone finishes, which actually results in a slight decline of his Adjusted Zone Finish to 58.6%. But his Expected Zone Finish is 50% + .3(67% - 50%) = 55.1%. So he's actually doing alright, to the tune of +3.5%.
ReplyDeleteBtw, I'm not claiming this 70% regression is a hard-and-fast constant or anything. It's based on analyzing one NHL season in detail league-wide, but needs to be repeated. But I'm confident that it's a decent rule of thumb.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteSo you are saying that even though a player is out there against the 11th stiffest competition with the 2nd best team mates and is -6.61 Corsi on and 25.0 SFON/60 and 28.2 SAON/60 and has an unadjusted zone differential of -8.7 he is more than maintaining the territorial advantage granted him by being given the most o-zone starts on his team? Additionally, that if he is 67.7 o-zone starts and 59.0 0-zone finishes he is in fact out playing the guy who is 42% o-zone starts and 53% o-zone finishes?
Conceptually I find that perplexing. You've made bad good and good bad by assuming there is an inherent difficulty in keeping the puck in the offensive zone and an inherent ease in getting it out of your own end. Do you really beleive that?
Good stuff Bruce.
ReplyDeleteI think knowing net Zone finish is important as it adds to the picture (although the Corsi or Fenwick numbers are probably better indicators) of which way the puck is moving.
I knew there was a correction factor, and your informed approximation is better than most.
Thanks.
Conceptually I find that perplexing. You've made bad good and good bad by assuming there is an inherent difficulty in keeping the puck in the offensive zone and an inherent ease in getting it out of your own end. Do you really beleive that?
ReplyDeleteI think it has more to do with plays that end in the neutral zone (there for not a O or D zone finish), as well as the fact that getting the puck out of the D zone is a strategic "win" for a team under pressure, then a line change often happens.
In that case there is no Dzone end.
Most shifts do not end in a whistle, but with a line change, so there is no zone finish.
Not 100% on that, but remember what I read elsewhere.
vor: It makes sense for players who are at either extreme. Just take a look at the zone start charts on Behindthenet. Players with heavy o-zone and d-zone starts universally go back towards the middle regardless of the quality of the player.
ReplyDelete@vor: Let me answer your questions in reverse order:
ReplyDeleteYou've made bad good and good bad by assuming there is an inherent difficulty in keeping the puck in the offensive zone and an inherent ease in getting it out of your own end. Do you really beleive that?
Yes. The tendency of the play is to flow to the middle of the ice.
Let's take it to the logical extremes. Player A - let's call him "Chorwick" - starts 100% of the time in his own end, can never get the puck going in the right direction, and finishes every shift right where he started. His ZoneShift on its own is neutral - zero.
Meanwhile Player B starts 100% of the time in the O-zone. He succeeds in keeping the puck in there the whole night, yet the very best he can do for ZoneShift is neutral - zero. Does it make sense to you that these players have both achieved the same thing?
Additionally, that if he is 67.7 o-zone starts and 59.0 0-zone finishes he is in fact out playing the guy who is 42% o-zone starts and 53% o-zone finishes?
Nope, he's not. Your example is so close to RNH stats I cited that I'll assume it's him, and the net result of adjusted OZF minus expected OZF is +3.5. Meanwhile, the second guy you mention has an OZS of 42, an expected OZF of 47.6, and an actual of 53% for a net of +5.4. He's done slightly better overall.
Any player whose ZoneFinish and ZoneStart are significantly on opposite sides of 50% is either doing really well or really badly, depending on which direction.
For the Oilers, the guys who start more than 50% in the good end and end more than 50% the other way - the guys getting crushed in other words - are Hordichuk, Eager, Lander and Petrell up front, and Barker, Potter and Whitney on the blue. That's a pretty good fit with what I've been watching.
This may work out but if the Oilers are getting used to the idea that he won't be a huge scorer then why not try to round out his skill-set by letting him PK
ReplyDelete