Monday, December 26, 2011

G35 Oilers at Canucks & WJ Day One

The Oilers have faded in the NW standings, but remain one of three teams with a positive goal differential. A closer look reveals a lot of what the Oilers are about is the powerplay.


Oilers 11-12 are 59-65 at even strength, 28-23 on the PP and 4-3 on the PK. The powerplay has been outstanding at home--19 goals leads the league and the 24.4 home percentage is 2nd in the entire league (Canucks lead at home). The Oilers have the 18th best road PP by goal total and the 20th best by percentage.

The Oilers were walking on sunshine 10 games in, but they were also riding historic save percentages and a blueline that looked like it had enough to hold back the water most nights. Khabibulin and Potter and the kid were enormous advantages for Edmonton, but luck and injury and the law of averages saw a market correction.

Minnesota is fading but they are 12 points clear of Edmonton so won't be an issue for Oilers fans before the deadline. Vancouver has been the cock of the walk in this division for some time and an early season snooze is pretty much over, Edmonton won't see them again.

Calgary shows us what a team that wants to improve can do in the early part of the season to make changes, get better and still keep your first round draft pick. Blake Comeau came free of charge and they've added some interesting kids in support roles. I don't know that Edmonton will catch them again this season but it's a race worth watching as we roll along.

I think Edmonton's hopes for climbing out of the NW basement depend on Colorado. Like Edmonton they started strong but have faded since, and neither team is going to threaten anyone in a playoff series.

I hate to say it, but this road trip is probably it for the Oilers. If they can't stay with the Colorado's and the Calgary's, then we'll start to talk about the draft in early January.
Again.
--

Day One of the World Juniors sees Canada playing Finland. The Canadians usually win Gold whenever I'm worried about them and I'm definitely worried about them. It's also a little galling to know that the selection process has excluded Tyler Seguin and RNH in the last two WJ's. I know this is a 19-year old tournament, but maybe we should be watching the U18's instead--after all, most of the kids playing today are already drafted.

TSN schedule
  • Canada Finland 1pm Edmonton time on tsn.
  • Sweden Latvia 3:30 Edmonton time on tsn2 (Klefbom).
  • USA Denmark 6 Edmonton time on tsn2
  • Russia Switzerland 8:30 on tsn 2.
It's weird not having a Canadian or Finn Oiler prospect this season, but the four defensemen should keep us entertained. I'd like to get your opinion on the 4 kids during the tournament, just post whatever you see in the comments sections and I'll gather them all up and do a post at the end of the WJ's.

We'll call it our scouting junket. :-) I asked Corey Pronman from Hockey Prospectus on Nation Radio Saturday the following question: which of the four Oiler drafts has the best chance to be a productive NHL defenseman?

Answer: David Musil.

82 comments:

  1. Currently enroute to Edmonton from GP, left at 3:30, running on no sleep, fueled by caffeine and nicotine, couldn't be more excited. I only have tickets to Canada/Finland and US/Denmark, so unfortunately I won't be able to see any Oilers prospect, but it should be a great day nonetheless. Wish me luck!

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  2. Can't find the cherry version but this fits

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGSzB95RRC0

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  3. A fitting road anthem given the circumstances. I don't know why we figured leaving at 3:30am for a game in the afternoon was a good idea; likely a combination of being too excited to sleep and my old man always telling me, if your not having coffee in Whitecourt by 7, you aren't making time.

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  4. lol. Sounds like my Dad too. We were always "burning daylight." Fucking guy, probably rode a horse 10 times his whole life. :-)

    I ended up listening to NY's Powderfinger after the Springsteen song, man I love that song so much. I was 20 when he released that album, listened to it day and night for weeks.

    If your Dad is the same as my Dad, he'd usually "have a nap" about two and my Mom would say "why in hell did we have to get up in the middle of the night so you could drive down here and sleep all day?"

    That generation had a love affair with the car that we'll never have.

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  5. Out of the 93 goals for, 9 were in one game.

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  6. It sounds like our dads could have had a beer together. My dad has been driving a truck his whole life, so burning daylight was a pretty serious problem in his world. We would all get loaded in the truck by 4:30, and he would have us to Edmonton by 9. Soon as we got to where we were going, he would tip his hat and sleep until we were ready for our next destination, not sure he'd leave the truck all day.

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  7. LT: grabbed my sister's guitar out of mothballs about two years ago and re-learned how to play and Powderfinger was one of the first ones that I latched onto.

    Young's stuff isn't really hard to play and it's fun because he loves the hammer-ons and that makes it sound like you're a lot better than you really are:)

    Anyway, I never get sick of that one and "cowgirl in the sand" is a lot of fun to bang away on as well.

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  8. As for the Oilers, yeah it's over again. Mostly because of the health of 6 and 83 because given the stock of the kids and the resurgence of Khabby, Oilers would be absolutely be for real if they were getting production out of 83 and 6 wasn't skating like the latter-career version of Brad Marsh.

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  9. Oilers recall Alex Plante. Whitney must have been hobbled by Annie ala Paul Sheldon.

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  10. LT,

    Hope you don't mind me posting this.

    I have a pair of tickets to the CAN/FIN game today.

    Sec 122, Row 9, Seats 9,10

    You can have them for face value of $122.50ea and I'll throw in the US/DEN game this evening.

    email me at vishthrottler@gmail.com if you are interested.

    Also,

    Hope the Dys partied hard and the Oilers are still playing with the energy they did the last 3 games, or else this won't be close.

    If Plante actually plays, and plays with Peckham, it might be a train wreck.

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  11. I like how one of my nicknames became someone's email address:)

    It's good to be King(Dennis) sometimes;)

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  12. Got "Behind the Moves: NHL General Mangers tell how winners are built" for Christmas.

    Neat little sidebar on page 7.

    In talking about how the GM position evolved over time, the author points out that the Montreal Canadiens team that won the Cup in 55/56 had an Assistant Manager named Ken Reardon.

    The cup engraver decided that the best contraction of that title was AssMan.

    "Ken Reardon - AssMan"

    Is on the Stanley Cup

    Dennis,

    Its my catch all email without giving out my keys ones.

    I love the name.

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  13. Oops,

    Its: "Kenny Reardon AssMan"

    Its right before "Hector Toe Blake Coach"

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  14. Wow, there's some quality posting there. Vish Throttler lives via email, that GM book was what I was hoping for (I got the Ron McLean book instead) and now have to get.

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  15. Seven years in Vancouver only increased my loathing of the Canucks so I find games like this evenings are the ones I miss the most.

    Everyone should be well rested and full of piss and vinegar. The Canucks are on a hot streak, as arrogant as ever and no doubt happy to have a track meet with the Oil. Yes, it could end badly but these games are the most entertaining and also tend to be where the boys surprise. I'm optimistic for a W and look forward to following the play by play via this site.

    Thankfully we still get TSN in the middle of the Atlantic and can look forward to WJ games.

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  16. Off to the canada/finland game as well. Only an hours drive. See you there dooz..

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  17. Canada are up 4-0 against Vitkovice ten minutes into the first in the Spengler Cup.

    Mark Crawford is coaching and Marty Turco is in goal for Canada.

    Vitkovice has a 17 year old Australian on the team.

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  18. Agree completely this road trip is the season for this team. We sit 7 points out of eighth spot this morning and I'd put the over/under at 10 points after we finish the trip.
    I'm hoping that management waits til after the road trip to decide whether it's time to "do something" with the current roster because it will be obvious what the course of action
    is after the road trip is completed.

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  19. Hemsky leaves the ice during practice. Lordy. Tambellini's going to get an Esso icescraper and an old Andy Williams Christmas 8-track for 83.

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  20. Does it have his version of White Christmas on it..? That's nothing to sneeze at you know...

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  21. At least Hemsky's just got a sinus issue...Whitney's ankle is messed again.

    Did 2006 put some kind of hex on us.

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  22. Hemsky leaves the ice during practice. Lordy.

    Did the Oilers chance at winning tonight just go down or up?

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  23. Did the Oilers chance at winning tonight just go down or up?

    Lots of people who want to trade Hemsky point to the fact that the Oilers winning % is better without Hemsky this year than with him.

    Using the same logic those people also must be in favor of PIT trading Crosby since their winning % is better without him than with him in the line up this year as well.

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  24. Stupid question; TSN.ca is carrying the Canada-Finland game, but I can't seem to find the link to the stream anywhere on their site. Am I just blind?

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  25. I just went to the site, it says "Click Here to Watch Live" right above the "Fast Start For Canada" heading.

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  26. There we go; using adblock on Firefox makes that link not even show. A lot of the sites are doing that now, very annoying.

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  28. @Woodguy... I hope the sarcasm button was on otherwise you should be taken to the woodshed for mentioning Crosby and Hemsky. In the same sentence!

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  29. I would much rather have Crosby on my team than Hemsky. I like that sentence a lot!

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  30. I liked the part in Matty's hockey world where Perry Pearn was writing speech ballons for guys.

    And by "liked", I mean "holy fuck, that was weird."

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  31. You don't understand parallel logic, do you, Clarkenstein?

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  32. "Lots of people who want to trade Hemsky point to the fact that the Oilers winning % is better without Hemsky this year than with him.

    Using the same logic those people also must be in favor of PIT trading Crosby since their winning % is better without him than with him in the line up this year as well."

    Hemsky 22 3 8 11
    Crosby 8 2 10 12

    Yeah.. great logic

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  33. "Lots of people who want to trade Hemsky point to the fact that the Oilers winning % is better without Hemsky this year than with him.

    Using the same logic those people also must be in favor of PIT trading Crosby since their winning % is better without him than with him in the line up this year as well."


    Reading comprehension is apparently a learned skill.

    I never stated Hemsky and Crosby were equal players, nor mentioned points.

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  34. The people who argue the Oilers are somehow "better-off" without Ales Hemsky are probably the same geniuses who make the argument that we'd be better off without Shawn Horcoff or Tom Gilbert in the lineup also.

    They'll probably also be the first one stomping their feet and yelling when we get a lousy return for Hemsky at the deadline. No, the guy isn't having a great season, but no, this doesn't mean the Oilers should just "trade the bum".

    "Short hold" would be the way to go. Offer Hemksy a decent raise on a shorter-term deal (example - 9 or 10 million bucks over two years) and try to have him either build up his value or find his groove in his role on the team going forward. It's not like the team is at the point where they're in a position to be shedding experience (and skill, for that matter) for more magic beans (prospects & picks).

    Get good players. Keep good players. And veterans aren't a bad thing either...

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  36. LT said;
    It's also a little galling to know that the selection process has excluded Tyler Seguin and RNH in the last two WJ's. I know this is a 19-year old tournament, but maybe we should be watching the U18's instead--after all, most of the kids playing today are already drafted

    My post from the other day...one of the reasons why I'm finding it a little tougher to get hooked in this year is the continuation of two trends that make the Juniors less interesting for me:
    1. Many elite 18 year olds make the NHL and almost all are in the NHL by 19.
    2. The overall depth (in Canada) of 19 year olds makes it extremely tough for the elite 17 year olds (and 16) to make it.

    I love seeing the guys in the full cages come out and dominate. I remember Niederreirter and Pat Kane as two recent examples and just 15 years ago it was not unheard of for guys to play at 16 (Spezza, J-Bo, Lindros).

    Take last year. Instead of a coming out party for the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins you get two weeks of Casey Cizikis. No problem with the pick...he was a better player last year. The point is, the trend seems to be that many of the top Canadians will never get to play in the World Junior (RNH, Skinner, Seguin) and that's a shame.

    I wonder if the IHHF has put any thought into changing it to the World Under 19s in order to catch some of these kids?

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  37. This may be his last chance to get a big pay day, and if I were in his position, I would probably try to take advantage of that.


    Given his below average performance its probably in his best interest to sign a 1 year deal and hope to be healthier/play better next year so he can sign a more lucrative deal.

    His play so far this year, and his missing a significant amount of time in the last two years make it unlikely he'll hit as big a home run this summer as he would in summer 2013 if 12/13 is a good year for him.

    That is, unless he rips it up in the 2nd half of the year, and/or performs well for whatever playoff team is going to get him at the deadline.

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  38. Given the lack of top 6 forward free agents, I think he'll get the lucrative contract. All it takes is one team.

    That's a good point.

    Your logic is good in theory - but do you think Vokoun regrets signing that 3-4 year deal he was offered by Florida?

    Not really folllowing you here.

    If 83 gets a nice offer, he'll probably sign it.

    If he doesn't get a nice offer than a 1 year is in order.

    Is that what you meant?

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  39. I'm as big a Hemsky detractor as anybody but still agree with a short term sign.

    Hemsky as a 2nd line game breaker is the exact role he should be playing on any team.

    The problem of course is no agent in the world is going to let him sign a short term deal 6 months from UFA status.


    This is why good teams don't let players that have value play into there UFA year, we have no leverage and basically can do nothing but play the crap out of him regardless of his performance and hope he up's the value of the forthcoming trade.

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  40. I'd love to see it, but don't think the Oilers will do it. Two reasons: they've traded all the veterans why stop now?

    And, I do think a team like Detroit or Pittsburgh will come calling with a sweet enough offer to make the deal happen.

    Three assets baby. To quote Sesame Street, a loaf of bread, a container of milk and a stick of butter.

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  41. Lowetide:

    Apparently "quantity" matters more than "quality" in this town when it comes to general managers.

    We've already seen Ricky Ray for Steven Jyles, Grant Shaw and a draft pick - will the Hemsky trade look better or worse by relative comparison?

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  42. I am just wondering if anybody has a feed for the game? Thanks.

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  43. I don't know. If three assets come back for Hemsky the way he's playing now, I'll be fairly surprised. And I think management would rather have a 1st than a handful of mediocre assets. I'm not sure how he could bring much more than a 1st rounder right now... depends if there's a bidding war.

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  44. This team needs breaks or bounces. That was neither a lucky break nor a fortunate bounce.

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  45. Mark, try this:

    http://www.justin.tv/sortsall_35#/w/2313469840

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  46. Mr Renney,

    Playing your 4th line against the other team's best usually results in a goal.

    Regards,
    Everybody

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  47. How was that sneaky? It was right in front of both zebras. Canucks live off inteference and pick plays.

    Every once in a while there's a ref that will call their picks all night long, but not very often.

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  48. Maybe WG, but the 4th line by all rights should have earned a PP there against the Canuck 1st line.

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  49. There's another pick by Kesler on Peckman - all night

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  50. One reason why teh Canucks are so hated; they get away with bloody murder with the clownshoe refs of the NHL -- moreso than any other team in the league.

    And their fans will whine and moan if they take any kind of penalty.

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  51. I think it was decision making similar to that play that kept Potter in the AHL.

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  52. If we whine about the Canuck fans whining, then what are we whining about?

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  53. It's periods like that that make me think this team is 5 years away from being a contender rather than 2 or 3.

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  54. Is this road trip over with yet?

    Jesus.

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  55. Heads up LT;

    It's not just the four D-men draft picks playing in the WJC. You keep forgetting Kristians Pelss, who's going to continually be rocked playing for Latvia.

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  56. I'm pretty sure that "Ebbetts" means "Stempniak" in some language or another.

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  57. There isn't an Oiler forward in his 20's who can play tough comp except Hemsky, and he's always hurt and on his way out of town.

    This team is a long ways from anything.

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  58. Well Eberle fits that bill.

    But point taken.

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  59. The refs have seen how horrid the Oilers have been and took it as a challenge.

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  60. Man that was a violent hit. I'm not certain if Plante turned into it or it was a dirty hit or maybe just circumstance but man that was chilling.

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  61. There's probably no better time for an interview than an Oiler powerplay in Vancouver.

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  62. Yeah, I'm a little surprised by the call. Hard luck, Plante. Hoping or the best.

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  63. Weise accomplished what he was trying to do.That hit was meant to injure not just take a guy off the puck.

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  64. Dangerous play. Can't say Plante helped himself though.

    I've seen Weiss charge at a few guys over the few times I've watched Van. Where do they find all these dinks?

    Wow - Potter - that's a Pee Wee hockey play there.

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  65. LT, agreed, from that backside angle it looked frightening. Plante took the full force of it square in the face.

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  66. Ryan Smyth just stopped me from turning to other things.

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  67. I'm just glass Smyth made up for that crummy check job on the goal against right before he banged that one in.

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  68. Alice,

    I think he's close too.

    More bad decision making by Potter on the shortie.

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  69. Oilers have no right to be in this game, and they aren't.

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  70. An obvious observation:
    Eager is kind of useless out there. Most of his job is to run the other team (Dale Weiss). Well, he's quite poor at his job.

    You can tell he's trying, but he's a step late and his timing is way off.

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  71. Using the same logic those people also must be in favor of PIT trading Crosby since their winning % is better without him than with him in the line up this year as well.

    I just hope those people run PIT and that they are talking to Edmonton right now...

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  72. Horcoff zero goals and -7 in his last 13 and Cogs shooting % is back over 15.

    Just like old times.

    Gagner played less than 13 minutes tonight. I guess the bright side is that he isn't being showcased for a trade.

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  73. And now, an unsolicited scouting report form an unqualified dufus.

    I drove all the way down to Calgary to watch Klefbom; boy is that guy is not afraid to shoot. He had no powerplay time and he still tied for the team lead for shots(5), and had at least three more get blocked or miss the net. The problem, however, is that his shot is not that good. They were almost all non-threatening wrist shots, and his one slapper was nothing special either. You've got to like his skating and penalty-killing, but that shot could use some work.

    I thought the best player in Sweden's nine goal performance was the guy who only got one assist, Johan Sundström. He does everything.

    Also saw the Russia game, that whole team is good. Especially Kuznetsov.

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  74. Gagner played less than 13 minutes tonight. I guess the bright side is that he isn't being showcased for a trade.

    Wow, you're capable of looking at the bright side, Trak ?

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  75. Musings

    This team is still poorly constructed, hell, no one has a clue. Neither fish, nor fowl nor good red meat. Other than the kids, who are all on one line, no one knows what's going on.

    The Horc line - are they the checking line or the secondary scoring? Smyth's shot timed on a sun dial; cement hands Horc or softie Gagner, who can't carry the puck. I remember a sequence in the Oilers end - scrum on the boards, Gagner gets the puck and in two steps loses it, rinse and repeat.

    The two kids need a boards man, a crash banger to give them room. Put a good line on the kids and the team is done like dinner.

    The team still needs a second line center to go with Hall and Hemsky. The best center after the Nuge is playing on the fourth line.

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