Coach Renney has shuffled the lines again. Jason Gregor reported that Anton Lander was on the 3rd line with Gagner and Jones yesterday in practice. I do like the look of the top two lines and honestly Belanger has been such a disappointment maybe this is a good idea. I'd still rather see Lander spend the second half in the AHL if he can't post crooked numbers.
I don't make predictions because I suck at them. However, tonight has a lot of good arrows for the Oilers. They seemed suitably pissed at their loss against Detroit, the powerplay should be good for a goal and Minnesota looks as good as their uniform.
I'm not calling a victory. However, it should be a game we can enjoy watching, and lord knows the Minnesota Wild owe us one of those. These are not your Mother's Minnesota Wild, if your mother was Jacques Lemaire.
Maybe a new day dawns. YEO!
excited about the new year. Some healthy kids in the minors and maybe some changes to happen with the big club. Gagner's re emergence is good, but with him on the 3rd line is he being wasted on this team? I like the idea of getting Hemsky ona cheaper 2 year deal if he wants to stay. I hope Tambellini tries to get that done soon, and if he balks at a 2 year $4 mill deal then you move him. I guess the question becomes who will be better in the next 2-3 years: Hemsky or Gagner? Hemsky higher end skill but injury prone, Gagner more versatile (centre or wing) and he is a solid contributor but will never stir the drink on his line.
ReplyDelete"if your mother was Jacques Lemaire."
ReplyDeleteMy students are now staring at me strangely because i guffawed when i read this. Well played sir, well played.
Word verification: Spertin, like snot out of my nose i laughed so hard.
It Sounds like LT is hitting the eggnog early today. A good game to watch AND a win against Minnesota? YEO! Indeed!
ReplyDeleteDo they pick sticks before practice to decide the lines? If this keeps up we'll have to designate the TomBlender to Renney.
If this keeps up we'll have to designate the TomBlender to Renney
ReplyDeleteTom Blenney?
The Tomblender is a terrible name. Please don't use it. Not only can we do better to name it, should it appear, the MacBlender was a great name for a coaching phenomenon that really was beyond rediculous.
ReplyDeleteThe lines that have been going together recently at practice are no where near MacBlender in their ridiculousness. Really - what's changed?
Kid line
Vet Line
checking poorly line-->3rd scoring line
Hold the Fort line
I do understand looking for this kind of thing, but this is no where near MacBlender Territory. It's more like taking a trip to Amsterdam and checking out a Koffee Shop - par for the course.
When Belanger starts centering Hall and Eberle, feel free to make the comparisons. Until then... don't go there - we don't want to be putting those thoughts into the ether.
MIN is finally regressing.
ReplyDeleteThey are one of the most outshot teams in the NHL.
Not one MON player has a postive CorsiON number. PMB is best with -0.31, Cullen 2nd best with -6.13.
Before we point and laugh, only 3 Oilers have a positive CorsiON:
Hemsky +6.46
Hall +4.14
Paajarvi +1.12
Interesting that the current whipping boy is best and the 3rd best is in the AHL.
Sideburns for all!
In the previous Hemsky thread, one poster mentioned something that kinda got lost. I hit on the same thing in the Sail ON thread:
In the DET game 94-10-83 out shot their opponents.
83's 5 most common opponents were:
Lidstrom 11.7 min
Franzen 11.3 min
Datsyuk 10.9 min
Bertuzzi 10.6 min
White 10.1 min
That's some of the stiffest opposition in the NHL.
That line finished with Fenwick's of +6 (Horocoff), +7 (Smyth) and +8 (Hemksy)
Datsyuk had scored 9 points in his previous 5 games. He got shut out, and out shot vs. the Oilers.
I know Hemsky isn't producing like he can, but as good as the kids are, they aren't out shooting the Datsyuk's of the world yet, they are a few years away from that.
Hall's line didn't exactly get the night off, his top 5 opponents were:
ZETTERBERG 13.3
V. FILPPULA 11.9
B. STUART 11.8
J. HUDLER 10.7
N. KRONWALL 9.7
The were just below water with Fenwicks of -3 (Hall) and -2 (RNH) and -1 (Eberle)
That's pretty damn good for top 2 line against top 2 lines.
The bottom two lines shake out like this (Fenwick's):
Jones -7
Gagner -4
Belanger -3
Eager -1
Petrell -1
Lander -2
Jones' most common opponents were:
Cleary 9.2min
Miller 8.9min
Helm 8.6min
Ericsson 6.4min
Kindl 6.1min
I'm not pointing this out just to shit on Jones, but show that something I've seen since he left 94 and 10. His underlying numbers are turning back to the terrible ones he had last year. This game he scored a goal and finished -2.
He was on the ice for every DET goal.
If Jones can work and not sink 94-10 against toughs then why not:
4-93-14
94-10-28
91-89-83
55-20-37/58
Away from 10 and he's sinking and 20 isn't working as a life jacket.
I doubt 57 will have much better luck.
"Minnesota looks as good as their uniform"
ReplyDeleteSomeone a while back mentioned the Coleman cooler wearing Wild....still chuckling at that.
If they don't win tonight the "dive for the bottom five" has officially begun... if it hasn't already. The Wild are a beat up bunch and have lost 5 in a row.
ReplyDeleteA coach that juggles lines like Renney is a desperate, frustrated coach that knows he doesn't have enough talent. It's a bit sad to watch as I think Renney is a pretty good coach.
I like the idea of Gagner and Jones with Lander. Jones performs best when he doesn't need to worry about defense and can push the puck up the ice. He also needs to play with someone who can pass the puck. So short of Hemsky and Horcoff I would think Gagner, Lander are the next two best options. Lander is still being outplayed but each game he is getting better at being in the right place in the defensive end of the ice. Gagner has been working his butt off, is a playmaker and can score. Its almost like we are trying to create three scoring lines.
ReplyDeleteThanks to the Kid Line Oilers will be in nearly every game.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota everyone still rags on about as if Lemaire's still coaching, wtf is it with that? They're currently a good solid team, much in that Minnesota North Stars tradition now.
Of course every team aside from the Avs looks like a solid, veteran lineup compared to the ridiculous rest of the Oilers.
Take away the Kid Line, and we have the California Golden Seals folks.
Take away the Kid Line, and we have the California Golden Seals folks.
ReplyDeleteExcept the line that out shoots DET's 1st line right?
"Away from 10 and he's sinking and 20 isn't working as a life jacket."
ReplyDeleteHorcoff has zero goals and is -7 in his last 11 games.
Jones has 5 goals and is +2 in the last 11 games.
Looks like Horcoff is the one sinking.
The Oilers have been getting outchanced to a degree that I don't think it's correct to say they've been hitting a lot of line drives.
ReplyDeleteIf you want a reason to be optimistic about tonight then it's because Min are banged up and the Oilers are rested. A reason to be somewhat optimistic is that the vets aren't gonna keep struggling this badly.
Then again 83 is playing through an injury and 6 is terrible so that's gonna hamstring any potential ascendancy.
Another season is over already.
PS: Merry Christmas:)
A quick check at Hockeydb suggests the Seals never had a line that could outchance the Red Wings best line.
ReplyDeleteThis, despite the Red Wings being quite mediocre during the Seals’ Era.
I did come across something interesting tho’.
Check out these divisions in 74-75,Three west coast teams – each in a different division.
Freaky-deakey
Adams
Buffalo Sabres 113
Boston Bruins 94
Toronto Maple Leafs 78
California Seals 51
Norris
Montreal Canadiens 113
Los Angeles Kings 105
Pittsburgh Penguins 89
Detroit Red Wings 58
Washington Capitals 21
Patrick
Philadelphia Flyers 113
New York Rangers 88
New York Islanders 88
Atlanta Flames 83
Smythe
Vancouver Canucks 86
St. Louis Blues 84
Chicago Blackhawks 82
Minnesota North Stars 53
Kansas City Scouts 41
Looks like Horcoff is the one sinking.
ReplyDeleteIn a world of change....
Woodguy: The only Oiler I remember particularly against the Wings is RNH - who was doing very well against Datsyk if memory serves.
ReplyDeleteI've had it with the non Kid Liners, aside maybe from Jones who's picked up the slack recently and looks set to be shortlisted for the old Moreau role.
Smid and Gilbert I like on defence; and imo Peckham's going to be picked up in a flash by 29 other teams should Tambellini agree with certain opinions around here, but unfortunately Teddy Peckman's been way over his head lately - he still needs a lower spot in the batting order to function.
Khabibulin's a good to great goalie, and Dubnyk I used to want to like, now have shed that and see the bust-orama he's turned out to be. Hardly a shock given his "development" under the Hardy Boys(Lowe/anyone else) management of the EIG era.
Yeah, I was gonna say something about "line drives" myself, more like making OK contact on an 0-2 pitch and hitting a sharp grounder to short after swinging weakly at two in the dirt. They've had their moments but have given away way too much, basically gifting the Sharks at least two of their goals in one of those "line drives".
ReplyDeleteThe kid line looks great don't they?
ReplyDeleteI'd speculate that some of that is actually down to bench coaching. Yeah I know we all hate Tom Renney. But he has a hand in the kids' success.
Nugent Hopkins playes the 11th stiffest competition with the 2nd best line mates. Jordan Eberle plays the 7th toughest competition with the best linemates possible. In order to give the kids those sheltered minutes and o-zone starts somebody is forced to do the heavy lifting.
One of those somebodies is Shawn Horcoff. He is facing the toughest competition with the 5th best linemates. His relative Corsi is decent and his Corsi on isn't bad. Is he getting out played, yes, but not by much. Much more importantly he is the guy the kid line is hiding behind.
We see on the road what happens when Renney can't completely hide them. They are tons of fun to watch and eventually they will be the ones protecting kids. However, for now we should all keep in mind their fabulous season is partly the result of quality effects.
vor: It's a nifty argument you put forward, until asked the question: When exactly hasn't the Kid Line scored anywhere in the last 15 games?
ReplyDeleteIMO Dave Tippet's Phoenix Coyotes have surplanted the Wild as the Grinch that stole fun hockey.
ReplyDeleteThat game style and roster make up on a budget seems to guarantee a 7th to 10th position in the west most years.
Too bad our GM can't identify useful vets for reasonable dollars.
Saku's brother is out so if the Oil don't win this one I'm looking at Renney again.
94-10-4
ReplyDelete14-93-89
37-57-83
55-20-28
These are lines that have a chance to move things forward positively. Substitute in 91 and 23 for 37 and 57 and you have some great lines to play against anyone. But of course, this cannot happen. Too many sideburns on one line.
Those lines are horrible.
ReplyDeleteHall on the RW?
Eberle on the LW?
Jones on the 4th line?
Buy a program and try again.
It can always be worse, just check out that Caps team in 74-75
ReplyDeleteMy God.
Just to be fair I'll put down my line combos so you can call them horrible as well:
ReplyDeleteHall - RNH - Eberle
Smyth - Gagner - Hemsky
Lander - Horcoff - Jones
Eager - Belanger - Petrell/Horti
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ReplyDeleteJones performs best when he doesn't need to worry about defense and can push the puck up the ice
ReplyDeleteI believe the term you're looking for is "cherry picking."
I have a good feeling about tonight's game.
ReplyDeleteSo that probably means another shootout loss to these guys. :(
Kind of off-topic, but with Omark now being pegged at returining around the end of January (re: interview with Todd Nelson on the Spector show yesterday), and the deadline to rejoin the SEL being mid-January (I think), does it seem more likely that he comes back after the seemingly imminent Hemsky deal to try one more time to crack the lineup? Wow was that one heck of a run-on sentence. Personally, I see Tambellini giving Omark a one-year, maybe two-year contract with an adjusted NMC (to prevent another AHL demotion) and likely finding him a new home by next spring. (Hey, Tallon, how about Omark for Gudbranson? Come on, you know you want to!)
ReplyDeleteunisw - Robin Brownlee's latest, as-yet-undeciphered acronym for player performances.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteHere is who RNH played against lat game 5v5 (in minutes):
J. HOWARD 16.2
H. ZETTERBERG 12.7
V. FILPPULA 12.2
B. STUART 11.7
J. HUDLER 10.9
N. KRONWALL 9.7
I. WHITE 3.6
N. LIDSTROM 3.3
J. ERICSSON 3
J. FRANZEN 2.2
T. BERTUZZI 2.1
D. CLEARY 2.1
D. MILLER 1.3
P. DATSYUK 1.3
J. ABDELKADER 1.2
J. KINDL 1.2
D. HELM 1.1
T. HOLMSTROM 1
C. EMMERTON 0.6
Belanger hasn't been playing bad from where I've been sitting. He's been as advertised, but the offensive numbers haven't been there. It doesn't seem to be a matter of him not having opportunities, he just seems completely snakebitten out there, and NEVER gets a bounce his way.
ReplyDeleteIf he's ever a part of a 2-on-1, I always want the other guy to shoot. If he's the trailer on an offensive rush, I pray the puckholder doesn't see him. The guy just can't buy a goal right now.
Last fifteen games,
ReplyDeleteKids at home +12
Kids away -6
Net +6
Vets at home +2
Vets away -4
Net -2
Sheltered minutes plus talent makes great season.
Heavy lifting makes you look bad.
It can always be worse, just check out that Caps team in 74-75
ReplyDelete@Black Dog: Yeah, that was one horrible team, all right. Fun fact: those Caps gave up 446 GA (in 80 GP), an NHL record that exactly matches the NHL record of 446 GF (also in 80 GP), set of course by our 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers. Exact same number on opposite sides of the ledger. Meaning the Caps were as bad as the '83-84 Oilers were good.
Seems reasonable. After all, those '83-84 Oilers were recently identified as by the Sporting News as the third greatest team of all time, and clearly the '74-75 Caps are among** the worst teams ever as well (** he said charitably).
So let's investigate that concept a little further, and fill in the rest of the equation for both teams:
WSH 1974-75: 181 GF, 446 GA = -265
EDM 1983-84: 446 GF, 314 GA = +132
... suggesting that those Caps were in fact twice as bad as those Oilers were good. Which stands up to facts: those Oilers were an awesome offensive machine and an average defensive squad, whereas the Caps were a putrid offensive team and an horrific defensive one, meaning they've got the edge by two superlatives to one. :)
One things is for absolute sure: they were reeeeeeeal fucking bad.
Funny how Ryan Jones can lead Oilers forwards in +/- for the season and nary a word gets said about it around here, but as soon as he goes -2 in one game it gets mentioned 3 or 4 times by 3 or 4 different people.
ReplyDeleteWhat concerns me about this game is it's just the kind that the Oilers ought to win but have managed to find a way to lose. Really, there are no excuses tonite for coming out and laying an egg.
ReplyDeleteBe nice if Smyth can get back on track.
Funny how Ryan Jones can lead Oilers forwards in +/- for the season and nary a word gets said about it around here, but as soon as he goes -2 in one game it gets mentioned 3 or 4 times by 3 or 4 different people.
ReplyDeleteFunny how I can give Jones his due for his improved play in about 30 threads this season and praise his willingness to go to the net and 4v5 play and you say nothing, but the moment I point out he is regressing you point it out.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteUgh, you caught me on it Traktor, I wasn't paying attention to wings at all.
ReplyDeleteI actually like your line-up though. Keep Belanger with Eager and it makes them both more effective.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWG and Bruce - FIGHT!FIGHT!FIGHT!
ReplyDeleteFIGHT!
That 1984 team: goals
ReplyDeleteGretzky 87
Anderson 54
Kurri 52
Coffey 42
Insane.
Rediculous when a 42 goal output is 4th best, and by a defenseman. Imagine that team without worrying about a 2-line pass.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteLast 4 games (besides DET, which we have already seen)
I'd do more, but my eyes and back hurt. (which is probably why I snapped at Bruce for playing Den Mother for Jones for the umpteenth time)
Jones and Horcoff.
SJS game
Horcoff +4 shots, Even
Jone Even shots, Even
Horcoff Top 5 Opponents
Burns, Demers, Clowe, Handzus, Havlat
Jones Top 5 Opponents
Burns, Demers, Clowe, Marleau, McGinn
PHX
Horcoff -11 Shots, Even
Jones -2 shots, -1
Horcoff Opponents
Yandle, Schlenmko, Langkow, Boedker, Doan
Jones Opponents
Yandle, Schlemko, O'Reilly, Pyatt, Korpikoski
CAL
Horcoff -5 shots, -1
Jones -4 shots, even
Horcoff Opponents
Hannan, Smith, Backlund, Stepniak, Comeau
Jones Opponents
Piskula, Brodie, Nemisz, Morrison, Bourque
COL
Horcoff Even shots, Even
Jones +3 Shots,+1
Horcoff opponents
Hejduk, O'Reilly, Landeskog, Elliott, Quincey
Jones opponents
Mcclement, O'Brien, Winnik, Hejda, Quincey
Totals:
Horcoff -12 shots, -1
Jones -3 shots, Even
Meh, they've both been pedestrian.
Horcoff obviously playing tougher comp, but got killed in PHX in shots.
Based on Jones' better numbers against tougher comp when playing with 94-10, you'd expect better when he starts playing the Pyatt's of the NHL world.
LMHF,
ReplyDeleteAwesome.
Bruce,
Sorry I snapped at you, but you only seem to chime in when you think he's getting a bad rap.
You know I've given your new adopted son his due when he's earned it this year.
Bruce McCurdy - Den mother to hockey players who make it to the NHL on drive and spirit in spite of their talent.
woodguy:
ReplyDeleteShots without traffic are meaningless unless you are Stamkos, Kessel, Ovechkin ect.
You need traffic and you need to be willing to go to the dirty areas and out-battle defenders for rebounds.
That's why I don't care about Corsi. Lots of useless players in the past have had good Corsi numbers like Patrick O'Sullivan
"Based on Jones' better numbers against tougher comp when playing with 94-10, you'd expect better when he starts playing the Pyatt's of the NHL world."
Jones is on pace for 27 goals..
This is a better southpark fight:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFCy7tz45xY
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteI didn't use Corsi, I used Fenwick, which excludes blocked shots and is, in my opinion, a better measure.
Yes, traffic is better, which is one of the things I like about Jones, but there is a definite correlation between shooting and scoring, so its a good use as a proxy.
Woodguy: No worries, bro, that was entirely fair comment. I thought I had acknowledged your change of heart re: 28 at one point, certainly I do so now.
ReplyDeleteThe above wasn't directed at you specifically of course, just "3 or 4 people" who have mentioned that -2 against the Wings. What I found odd was not that it had been mentioned, but how often.
I think you and I can both agree, WG, that this is a player who a) is improving and b) is better than we had any right to expect. We also agree that Fenwick >>> Corsi (for most purposes).
WG
ReplyDeletewhy do you think excluding blocked shots is a better measure? Better measure of what? I though Corsi was supposed to be a proxy for zone possession, and thus I would prefer blocked shots be included.
Oh and same to Bruce I guess too.
ReplyDeletespOILer: Agree Corsi is the better measure of zone time, larger sample size counting more events which are zone-specific. However, to me a shot block is a neutral play, no different than a 50/50 battle in the corner. The shot attempt is entirely neutralized by the block, a positive play on both sides of the puck. By most definitions they are Not scoring chances (there are rare exceptions).
ReplyDeleteBy itself, zone possession time matters less than generation of scoring chances, which are usually expressed as shots or missed shots. In other words, Fenwick.
Funny how Ryan Jones can lead Oilers forwards in +/- for the season
ReplyDeleteI haven't mentioned Stortini all season. That's good, right?
:)
I think WG has been positive about Jones. Let's not forget that he's still shooting at 20.8%. That don't last, and it certainly don't last for guys who don't see PP time. Some of Jones' +/- and GF/60 won't sustain. But even so, he'll still be an okay player, especially if he keeps PK'ing well.
Corsi awesome data:
ReplyDeleteLast year 7 of our 8 +ve Corsi players were our worst Ga players and worse than the league average.
I tried using corsi to Constantly measure players.
But I am allways ending up with results like this that say Corsi measures are utter Shite!
It gets better Starting and ending in zones such that you are driving the puck in a positive direction.
5 of 8 are worst goals against
For +/- results 6 of our 9 worst +/- are +ve Corsi. 7 of 9 are +Ve zone finish.
5 of our 9 worst +/- are +ve Corsi and +ve Zone finnish.
What the hel.........
Our three best GA and +/- players last year were: Horcoff, Jones, Hemsky.
Yeah you guys trust Corsi and Zone finnish LOL!
Kent Wilson? (Flames Nation) uses a graph of Qual of comp zersus Zone start to group the players. Then you can measure those groups versu values. to get situational effective players.
I have been doing this with all the Behind the net Data. (post pronger) Lowetide Ver. 1. You take the critical column to find the best in each column and sort them and color highlight them. start doing that for each column and you get the best players in the league. Who are available versus the measures you seek..
Ie: the groups I look for.
What i would like to see:
1. tough Comp
2. teammates
that results in true comp measure
total comp Measure =(comp-Team) +ve good, Negative bad.
3. Ga better than the league average usually 2.5-2.6GA/60. Elite Ga in the 2.3 or less.
4. Corsi. yes i use it. i like to see +ve shot players.
The league needs to set up shot chart like the NBA. Stamkos score x% of the time from this type of shot and position. You get a real Cummulitive GA. that can create true Corsi.
Player X averages x% of shots /60. They yeild X% of shots. you get a plus minus value.
it eliminates the performance of the goalies.
It truely reflects corsi and elimintes the potential of the 300% error in Data.
5. What i consider a critical one Quality of Shot. if you are giving up 30-60% shots alot of the time. that is a red Flag. it is a (%/Shot) value. The lower the better. IE: yeild alot of perimeter play.
6. Zone start less than 50.5% zone start and +ve Zone finnish. I like to see the puck driven in the correct direction.
Though a 3% variance in a zonal play is not as important as the quality (%/S) that a player gives up. Quality of Shot can have 20 times more effect than zone shift.
7. Rreward block shots. A shot is a shot at the net(not going to go wide) you reward dmen who prevent goals. just as cummulative as goalies shots against. Smid blocks a cummulative value of 80%/game. preventing 4 goals every 5 games. To me that is quite valuable.
8. Penalties drawn: PP and Pk are 2-2.5 times more productive than Ev TOI. The drawn penalty is quite valuable.
9. Pk shots/60 and %/shot
Just some of the way to make the half advanced stats we use become independent of chance.
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteWhat Bruce said.
Scoring chances are my Holy Grail, so anything that can approximate them is what I lean towards.
Possession without scoring chances is playing like....ummmm....Barbra Ann Scott.
Rickibear,
ReplyDeleteTwo quick questions.
1. If all you want to do is eliminate goaltender effects then why don't you adjust save % on so it is league average for all players. Say when Horcoff is on the ice our goaltenders are .890 and the league average .910. Horcoffs +/- reflects that on every 100 shots his goaltender lets in 11 goals rather than the league average of 9. So for every 100 shots Horcoff is on for you reduce his goals against by two.
2. Why don't you use adjusted plus/minus? That eliminates all team mate effects.
rickibear,
ReplyDeleteThe other problems I have with shot quality as the primary stat is that a)what matters is if you score and a lot of variables determine which shots go in and which don't and b)team and opposition both enter into shot outcomes, both as independent and linked variables and c)circumstances matter to shot quality.
A knuckler from the blueline can actually be harder to stop than a wrist shot from the slot depending on an amazing number of things.
So an Ovechkin writst shot from the slot isn't the same as a Cogliano wrist shot from the slot. Not to mention that if either is on a screened goalie the quality goes up but we can't tell, unless we are the goalie, what he can and cannot see. Similarly a wrist shot from the slot in the first ten minutes isn't the same as a wrist shot on a goalie who has already faced forty shots and been run into six or seven times.
Calculating true quality could be next to impossible. Meaning you would end up with yet another comparative and dependent statistic that indicates perhaps but certainly doesn't predict.
I'd argue what we need is something like quaterback efficiency ratings.
Woodguy: Actually my holy grail is Goals, for which scoring chances are a better proxy than any of the shots metrics but still imperfect.
ReplyDeleteCounting scoring chances as 1's or 0's does not take into account the quality of the chance (same problem with shots and the others) and they pretty much ignore the finish - or otherwise - of the chance. They are not all created equal, for sure. Better players will create both more and better chances, only the first part of which is measured.
As I understand it, the assumption is that in huge sample sizes this will largely come out in the wash, and I'll admit in the age of parity this is a lot truer than it was back in the day. Which is relevant only insofar that I was forming my opinions while watching an extreme outlier that consistently rode a spectacular PDO rather than any significant outshooting advantage.
Word ver = "wiggy". Hmmm.
Possession without scoring chances is playing like....ummmm....Barbra Ann Scott.
ReplyDeleteScoring chances without goals is playing like ... ummmm ... Jeff Rebuttal.
Woodguy: Actually my holy grail is Goals, for which scoring chances are a better proxy than any of the shots metrics but still imperfect.
ReplyDeleteToo much luck involved in goals for me to count them as the end all be all, even though they are the end all be all (and preventing them)
If you out-chance will won't always win, but you should.
30,000 foot view and all.
All the concepts advanced hockey stats are largely based on Shots. goals win games. Getting them and preventing them.
ReplyDeletebut how they are scored and and were from is varied.
We have a shot chart and type that can be reviewed.
who took them and how successful they are.
It is important and accurate.
All others are interpulations, so inaccurate and invalid. as the oilers team last year proved.
To expand: Goals are too infrequent to count with a lot of meaning, given the luck involved.
ReplyDeleteI like bigger numbers to count to have more meaning and scoring chances happen more frequently.
The longer I pay attention to this stuff the more I think "a hot goalie makes a great coach"
"given the luck involved"
ReplyDeleteWG - What solidified this for you?
I've both played and watched the game for a long time and see no real "luck" involved (then again my definition is probably narrower than yours). I know why others include it in their understanding of the game, but I'd be interested in your take.
Been hearing a lot about powerscouthockey.com on Team 1260 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteHaven't looked too close at how or what they count, but their results more or less correspond to what most around conclude.
Here is their list of Oilers who contribute to winning. They call it their "MVP" rating:
1 T. GILBERT 7.00%
2 J. EBERLE 6.00%
3 R. NUGENT-HOPKINS 6.00%
4 N. KHABIBULIN 5.00%
5 R. SMYTH 4.00%
6 T. HALL 3.00%
7 S. HORCOFF 3.00%
8 R. JONES 1.00%
9 D. HORDICHUK 0.00%
10 D. DUBNYK 0.00%
11 T. CHORNEY 0.00%
12 C. BARKER 0.00%
13 A. PLANTE 0.00%
14 R. WHITNEY 0.00%
15 C. TEUBERT 0.00%
16 R. O'MARRA 0.00%
17 L. OMARK 0.00%
18 A. HEMSKY -1.00%
19 L. PETRELL -1.00%
20 S. GAGNER -1.00%
21 E. BELANGER -2.00%
22 C. POTTER -2.00%
23 L. SMID -2.00%
24 B. EAGER -2.00%
25 J. PETRY -3.00%
26 M. PAAJARVI -3.00%
27 A. LANDER -3.00%
28 A. SUTTON -6.00%
29 T. PECKHAM -6.00%
LMHF:
ReplyDeletePucks jump on perfect passes because of bad ice, you can make your shot just right and it's off by the 1/4" that is the difference between bar down and ringing iron, sometimes goalies make spectacular plays... and on the flip side, sometimes it goes in off your ass a few times in a row.
Jones scores goals, but he's also a cherry picker, soft on the puck, awful in his own end at 5v5 and, despite the reputation he has, likely for being a Canadian on the bottom 6, he's not physical at all.
Oilers win tonight though. 4-2. That bald midget gets in on both Minnesota goals and Eberle x2, Gilbert x1 and Petrell into the empty net for the Oilers...
The fact that three of the skills measured (hits, giveaways, takeaways) involve a degree of subjectivity, or are at least inequitably measured, makes me wonder about the power hockey stats from that site. One thing you can say for goals or stats based on shots is that they have less subjectivity in measurement, making them simpler/more reliable, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI'd have to seriously question any metric that is putting Smid and Potter that low down the list...
ReplyDeleteSmid, Potter are too low and I'd think Petry is getting a little shave too on that measuring stick thingy.
ReplyDeleteBeen hearing a lot about powerscouthockey.com on Team 1260 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned the site last season. I think I even had to sign up to see half of the stats at the time. They have some pretty wacky stuff going on there. It was started up by some guys that were on Dragons Den that sounded like used car salesmen.
PDO - Part of my point was that I don't consider any of those things luck.
ReplyDeleteTSN has pretty much created a Valentines day for Canadian men, with their WJHC coverage. God bless TSN.
ReplyDeleteIn TSNs top 10 special, Jordan Eberle was just named the top Canadian WJHC player of all time.
Gretzky was at #6 or something, but seeing him play as a 16 year old, he was 163lbs, but his skating and physique were identical to 93s. It was eerie how similar they looked.
LMHF,
ReplyDeleteI have BComm (Finance) so I took a ton of stats courses (of which I forget most)
You learn early that large pools of information will yield meaningful results that can lead to accurate predictions, whereas small samples can look like anything.
The best example is the old "Uncle Albert" sample. Uncle Albert smoked 2 packs a day and died at 92 years old when a pimp shot him.
Therefore smoking doesn't affect your heath.
You can look at 10 guys and if they are like Uncle Albert, you can still conclude that smoking doesn't harm your health.
Look at 100,000 guys and the story can become different.
Look at 1,000,000 and you can know to bet against a smoker living to the average age of death. Just make sure you don't bet against Uncle Albert only, you might lose, bet against all of them.
So we know that large samples are much better than big ones for predicting as it limits the "noise" from the variables, or in other terms "luck"
I wrote a ton of other stuff an hated what I wrote.
Essentially, with all the variables in hockey, as in life, luck is heavily involved in individual events, but over a large sample luck evens out.
There is luck in everything, and the more the variables, the more the role luck plays in individual events.
Ribs,
ReplyDeleteOne of them is also a retired economist.
Haven't looked close enough to have an opinion yet.
LMHF,
I think you better define luck for us, because I think its just a matter of semantics.
Well, as they say, Corsi giveth and Corsi taketh away...
ReplyDeleteCorsi is hard to go by on a team that allows a lot of shots, since everyone's numbers are skewed downward past the mean because of it.
So maybe we should look at offensive shots vs. team and league averages for skill players and defensive shots against for defensive forwards and defensemen.
Too much luck involved in goals for me to count them as the end all be all, even though they are the end all be all
ReplyDelete@WG: Exactly. You, a gambling man, are more interested in predictive stuff, whereas I, committed non-gambler, historian, and astronomer who looks backward in time by definition, am more about analyzing what did happen. In so doing I'm more interested in who actually won than who "should have" won. So goals are the thing. They too are counted as 1's and 0's, but those 1's actually do count.
Not saying I'm not interested in what happens next, just that my approach is a little backward, eh. :)
Also,
ReplyDeleteWe have no idea what kind of sample size is needed to know a players "true" shooting rate, etc.
The sample size of entire careers can be so small that someone living on either far end of the bell curve can be there for their entire career.
Paul Kariya had 402 goals on 3509 shots.
You will probably get more information by studying the sample of 3509 than 402. Probably.
You'd get more information by studying how many shots he was on the ice for, regardless who shot it.
What would be even better if there was a set definition of "scoring chance" and someone counted every scoring change Kariya was a part of for his career.
See what I'm getting at?
ReplyDelete@WG: Exactly. You, a gambling man, are more interested in predictive stuff,
Or insurance.
Mind you a lot of Muslim countries outlaw insurance on the basis that its gambling.
Every see a traffic accident in Egypt?
Everyone gets out, yells at each other using amazing hand gestures and loud voices.
Then they pick up their bumper and throw it in the back seat and drive off.
No car insurance in Egypt.
Wg - i'll have to elaborate another day - game time.
ReplyDeleteJones scores goals, but he's also a cherry picker, soft on the puck, awful in his own end at 5v5 and, despite the reputation he has, likely for being a Canadian on the bottom 6, he's not physical at all.
ReplyDeleteJones ranks second among Oilers forwards in hits. If he's not physical at all, what does that say about the rest of them?
He leads all Oiler forwards in blocked shots, takeaways, takeaway:giveaway ratio, and penalties drawn. I realize some don't rate that stuff for much, but others would call that a "wide range of skills". For sure, those aren't the markers of a guy who is soft on the puck.
If he's not physical at all, what does that say about the rest of them?
ReplyDeleteAnd if your aunt had testicles, would she be Jacques Lemaire?
Not saying I'm not interested in what happens next, just that my approach is a little backward, eh. :)
ReplyDeleteNot backward, just different.
Which is perfect for you. :)
You're more of a journalist and journalists need to tell stories.
Taking about "luck" all the time makes for shitty journalism.
The human mind is great at creating narratives to give meaning and connection to random events.
A lot of professional sports journalists make a living at it.
Ha!
Speaking of Corsi...
ReplyDeletePhil Kessel just finished the night with 10 shots on goal, 4 blocked and 1 missed.
Kid's a player.
At the game - why no hemsky,
ReplyDeleteAt the game - why no hemsky,
ReplyDeleteAt the game - why no hemsky,
ReplyDeleteTraded.
(Kidding. Ill.)
ReplyDeleteSS: Hold on, you'll get the chance to confirm soon enough.
ReplyDeleteOilers look like they have their legs tonight.
Hall with 4 turnovers on that powerplay.
ReplyDeleteJones ranks second among Oilers forwards in hits. If he's not physical at all, what does that say about the rest of them?
ReplyDelete... who cares? That's like a 14 year old bragging to his buddies about losing his V-card but ignoring the fact it was to a 43 year old tranny.
He leads all Oiler forwards in blocked shots, takeaways, takeaway:giveaway ratio, and penalties drawn. I realize some don't rate that stuff for much, but others would call that a "wide range of skills". For sure, those aren't the markers of a guy who is soft on the puck.
Blocked shots come on the PK. He's been surprisingly good there this year.
Edmonton stats guys are notoriously ridiculous for all of the above stats. The variance from city to city on them is exactly why I don't give a fuck about them.
How about this... when's the last time you saw Jones blow someone up? The answer is never. He leans on guys a bit, and I wish a guy like PRV could add to to his game; but... a guy like Jones? I wanna see him bury a guy every couple games. Never happens.
As for the soft on the puck comment... he falls all the fucking time. Knocked off the puck and the other team gets it. Which is NEVER counted as a giveaway, but is sure as fuck a much easier play for other teams than it should be.
He's good on breakaways (that he cherry picks for), is good in tight on the net, and has been a serviceable PKer.
And that's about it.
Glad to help the cause LT.
ReplyDeleteLove Potter on the PP. He's been great all year.
ReplyDeleteHall's fighting it tonight. Hope that crosscheck wakes him up.
Jesus the Wild must bring their own porridge for each game. If the Wild had invented hockey it wouldn't have made it out of Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteZZZzZzZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ........
ReplyDeleteEberle might be the best of the kids.
ReplyDeleteWhat a beauty
That's just unreal.
ReplyDeleteEberle looks like Mike Bossy's son.
ReplyDeleteEberle. Build him a fucking mountain.
ReplyDeleteThey should keep that kid!
ReplyDeleteIs there a better player in tight around the net than this guy, boy.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of good hockey players.
ReplyDeleteWow.
LMHF#1: If you want proof of the power luck has on the outcome of hockey games look at the team that is playing against Edmonton tonight.
ReplyDeleteThis Minnesota Wild team is second in the west, they must shit horseshoes all day long.
Now Smyth. Nice first period for the Oilers.
ReplyDelete99 / 17 / 11 redux ;)
ReplyDeleteThe problem with the wraparound with no rebounders in front is that every now and then, it works.
ReplyDeleteI'll enjoy it for now knowing that I won't enjoy it when it kills the play on the next 300 wraparound attempts.
Hall comes in way too slow on penalty shots/shootouts. Needs to use that speed.
ReplyDeleteOne of these days Oilers will blow some poor unsuspecting team like the Wild out of the rink.
ReplyDeleteWork has been fn insane for me the past 2 weeks. I find strength by looking in the mirror and thanking the cosmos that my name isn't Randy Cunneyworth. Lordy that's gonna be an edgy Christmas for the Cunneyworth kids. Keep your heads down kids. Daddy's had a rough day at work.
ReplyDeleteDanny, en francais s'il vous plait.
ReplyDelete;)
See, luck in hockey.
ReplyDeleteGood for Petrell, good forecheck in the neutral zone.
Petrell goals are always awesome.
ReplyDeleteEbs!!
ReplyDeleteBy the end of the game Hunter will have the Oilers finishing in the playoffs again.
Love it when Eberle scores.
ReplyDeleteI love this team!
ReplyDeleteStatistics are only meaningful if you can calculate the size of the error bar.
ReplyDeleteLarge sample sizes tend to reduce the size of the error bar.
Calculating "averages" is easy. Determining the statistical significance or error bar is hard.
Lots of people are producing a lot of numbers without producing an error bar.
i.e. They are producing hypotheses, not conclusions.
Petrell goals are always awesome.
ReplyDeleteBoth of them?
Bookie can't fit his error bar through the door.
ReplyDeleteWG - the Petrell goal? Positioning, good checking and a guy who shoots well. How was that luck? He created the turnover, won the race and took a great shot.
ReplyDeleteWith error bars, smaller is better! -)
ReplyDelete"error bar is hard"
ReplyDelete5-2 lead and the Columbus BJs blow it. Hard loss.
ReplyDeletePetry is looking good. Not in a Blue Jacket kinda way.
ReplyDeleteLMHF,
ReplyDeleteLennart Petrell even being in the NHL is the combination of many kinds of luck, let alone scoring a goal.
I may have missed something, where is Hemsky tonight?
ReplyDeleteHall, broken foot?
ReplyDeleteError bars are nice to have when you can get them,, but even if you don't have a formally defined error bar, the data is still worth a lot.
ReplyDeleteJake -traded - source -Steve smith
ReplyDeleteMontreal loses 4-0 to Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteBrûler des voitures coming soon.
Hall missing. Shot in the leg?
ReplyDeleteSteve Smith, rormer player and current Member of Oilers brass says Hemsy has been traded for player to be named later. -Teenasoil
ReplyDelete-Taylor Hall shot himself in leg according to someone close to Steve Smith of the Oilers. News later, per Garfield.
ReplyDeleteHall back.
ReplyDeleteUnlike goals, they *do* give points for how pretty they are in that game.
ReplyDeleteRibs:
ReplyDeleteWas hoping someone would.
Verification: Groape.
I laughed.
Imagine a dark lit room with a closet door that is slowly creeping open. The door swings open violently as a flash of lightning fills the room with a sudden burst of blue light. Lennart Petrell is staring at you, smiling, holding his one hand behind his back.
ReplyDeletePoop your pants yet?
lol. Classic.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what the Oiler's record is this season when Smitty has a letter on the front of his jersey?
ReplyDeleteThat was pretty ugly. Petrell's an interesting player.
ReplyDeleteHe tripped. What a load of bull.
ReplyDeleteThat wasn't a penalty, Zidlicky blew an edge.
ReplyDeleteIf the score was any less I'd be very upset. Awful call.
I don't know guys, it looked to me as though Petrell hooked him a little. Just enough to get him off balance.
ReplyDeleteMy only problem with that kind of play is that the 'victim' has to have some responsibility. Instead he goes in with a shitty stance that gives him no strength to take any kind of push or hit. That's on the d-man as much as Petrell.
ReplyDeleteits only that dangerous because he lets it become dangerous. Go in with your shoulder, with proper stance.
Khabibulin has played well tonight, good screen on the goal.
ReplyDeleteThat should read "but that was soft unless there was a good screen on the goal."
ReplyDeleteI think that's the book on Khabibulin. Shoot from anywhere and just put traffic in front of him.
ReplyDeleteI think that's the book on Khabibulin. Shoot from anywhere
ReplyDeleteSure is.
The family probably doesn't know this but I'm travelling back to Vermilion this weekend to celebrate Jordan Eberle's birthday.
ReplyDeletelol
ReplyDeleteSaw the play at the game and the reply there - it looked like he pushed a player in a bad position to me. The call was fair.
ReplyDeleteSo - I will now go through the comments to see if anyone knows why Hemsky was out.
ReplyDeletePDO's prediction darn close. Calls 2 from Eberle and a Petrell goal!
ReplyDeleteHemsky obviously was the problem the last few games.
Just getting caught up on the stats discussion above. I wish I hadn't been so busy today. Hope we have that discussion again when there's more time, some great points. Like Ricki's too.
ReplyDeleteAnd I apologize for the brusqueness of my question but it has been nuts at work and I was just being desperately brief.
But WG, you haven't convinced me that Fenwick is better than Corsi. Why are the centimetres and milliseconds of a blocked shot poorer than those of goal post iron, goalie leather, Smytty tip, or busted plexiglass?
I like your response though. I had to take the same courses on t and z distributions back in Business. I like big numbers too. In this case I prefer the bigger pop stat. Corsi.
;o)
Edmonton stats guys are notoriously ridiculous for all of the above stats. The variance from city to city on them is exactly why I don't give a fuck about them.
ReplyDeleteSure, there is variance between cities, rendering comparisons between teams pretty much meaningless. That's on the NHL. But within a team, they play in front of the same scorers as each other, so team rankings mean something in my books.
Same as QualComp stats, they are of most value when ranking guys within a team. Nature of the beast. The info is limited, but it's not useless.
* * *
Nice win for the Oilers tonight. Big time score effects on Corsi numbers tonight, shots were 23-3 just after the 4-0 goal and wound up 31-31. Corsi by period was +8, -15, -13, and that's without taking penalties into account which were similarly distributed. Oilers had five forwards with 5 shifts each in the 3rd before 6 other forwards
ever saw the ice. Strange.
And I said in a recent thread and as you guys allude to above, we should really give some thought to the meaningfulness of sample size w.r.t. the various Roger numbers.
ReplyDeleteYou know if Vic isn't gonna come straight out and give us the right answers.
Bruce said...
ReplyDelete"Sure, there is variance between cities, rendering comparisons between teams pretty much meaningless. That's on the NHL. But within a team, they play in front of the same scorers as each other, so team rankings mean something in my books.
Same as QualComp stats, they are of most value when ranking guys within a team. Nature of the beast. The info is limited, but it's not useless. "
Then using those stats to rate the quality of a player is absolutely a waste of time unless you're handicapping the worst two or three horses in a 30 entry field.
Huh?
ReplyDeleteBruce has handed DSF his bumbling arse on multiple occasions over the past few days. It isn't even close.
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen DSF this exposed since that weird, secret, sexually orientated hockey forum was unearthed by Tyler a couple of years ago. :-P
And, atleast historically, I cannot stand Bruce's instant iota of information recollecting, yarn spinning guts. So I can be trusted in being completely 100% unbiased in my judgements.
Aw, I miss Slipper. What the hell man, come around more.
ReplyDeleteIf the Habs want a bilingual coach then we have this Kevin Lowe bumbling about...
ReplyDeleteI love the comment about Jones Cherry Picking
ReplyDeleteWhich Cherry pick did you hate most PDO?
The one where he stripped a Hab player for a shorty or where he intercepted a pass against SJ for another SH goal?
Habs don't offer lifetime tenure, Smarmy.
ReplyDeleteExcellent game. That makes two teams Oilers will be able to beat up from now on.
ReplyDeleteAvs+Wild at least they're both in the same division. Flames I predict will be reckoning without any more guaranteed points against this up and coming team.
Weird how Hemsky never seems to help anyone else play hockey. That said, unless he's crazy he's on the first stage out of Dodge next summer. Oilers don't need this selfish player, and he doesn't need to be on a team of up and comers who will make him look like an injury prone, older player who, when taken to task, never really delivers anything much more than a Ryan Jones type player.
Maybe Hemsky's just gone crazy, like the toy poodle that used to live downstairs from me - it was never let out except to shit in the garden and was clinically insane...Hemsky lol probably has gone crazy under MacT and, has learned to cope by playing an imaginary game while on ice in real game situations, where he's got all kinds of Jagr's and Mario's everywhere, instead of Shawn fucking Horcoff.
I am proven right (once again). As I mentioned last time, when we ACTUALLY score 4 goals we win most hockey games. Like I also said, you aren't going to score 4 goals (or more) on Khabibulin in most games. Further still, as I ALSO mentioned, defence isn't our problem. Our problem is scoring goals. As you can see, when we actually play an INSPIRED hockey game we look like the team that was on fire at the beginning of the year. When we play like we are in a "coma", we lose 4 straight. Consistency is the key. In other words, you need to be able to "bring it" EVERY NIGHT. That is why teams like Detroit are doing so well. It's not because they are more talented. It's because they play their best EVERY GAME and we do not! Having said that, I still say we need to trade either Gagner or Hemsky. I think both are quality players, but at this point in time if I were Mr. Tambellini, I would trade Gagner at the deadline and re-sign Hemsky. We'll see what happens...
ReplyDeleteOn a side note, Ryan Whitney will return to form soon enough, trust me. Whitney has proven he is a #1 defenceman. For those who doubt it, last time I checked, he was on Team USA for the 2010 Olympics. Brian Burke is not stupid. He knows what type of player we have here.
On another side note, Phil Kessel is turning out to be the player I thought he would be. Tyler Seguin will be a good player, but nowhere near the quality of Kessel. I like Seguin, I watched him play many games when he was with Plymouth, but it makes me laugh when the "so-called" experts say that we should have drafted him over #4. I digress...
Back to Ryan Whitney. Health is not the only factor here, it is confidence. It is slowly returning for him. I've seen first hand what his kind of injury can to do a person's confidence in sports. Nonetheless, check back in about 2-3 more weeks and I think you will see Mr. Whitney back to where he should be. Go Oilers GO!
Yea, just score 4 or 5 goals every game and there's no problem! Easy Peezy!
ReplyDeleteroctain - Heavy metal version of the Oilers dance crew
Just saw the highlights. Zidlicky did in fact launch himself into the boards. These guys are getting good.
ReplyDeleteSoccer - that's all I have to say.
@Slipper: I miss you too, pal, in fact you're one of my favourite posters, history be damned. Try as I might, I have come nowhere close to the devastating putdown you put on DSF at the end of a game thread a few weeks back, one of those multi-pronged attacks of yours that contained a fresh insult in every sub-clause. That was the gold standard AFAIC.
ReplyDelete