Monday, December 19, 2011

G33 Red Wings at Oilers

A great defenseman is like a warm blanket on a cold winter's morning. Opposition sorties dissolve like sugar in coffee, alka-seltzer in water. The puck is moved up expertly and the shot gets through on the powerplay. Calm feet. Big brains. Complete skill set. A great NHL defenseman is a very valuable item.



The photo shows the expansion Buffalo Sabres against the veteran Red Wings. This was 40 years ago. Delvecchio is the captain for Detroit, Howe is crashing the net, Buffalo's #7 is Floyd Smith and #3 is I believe Tracy Pratt. This scene has been repeated thousands of times over since this photo, and NHL teams are still looking for defensemen.

I thought it might be interesting to compare the Wings and how they use defenders with how coach Renney is rolling them out this season.

It's 5x5 Rel Corsi but there's also the TOI totals and this is all players with 5 or more games. That's pretty consistent delivery of the top 6 there, with Lidstrom and Ian White getting the most work and delivering a solid year. Lidstrom is a freak, please Baby Jesus let one of these Oiler kids be half the player.


This is Qual Comp and Qual team and there's some interesting stuff here. By the way, all stats here courtesy Gabe Desjardins as always. White and Lidstrom are facing the toughes and then the veteran tandem of Kronwall and Stuart get the secondary toughs. I've seen quite a few games this season and that top 4D are very consistent and of course the wealth of veteran forwards helps out every shift.

Detroit had some issues over the summer with defensemen, and it's interesting to see how they solved those issues.

First thing we notice is that the Wings defenders have been healthy. Again this is >5gp and we see the Smid-Gilbert pairing at the top and Potter still shining after that brilliant start. Now, I know injuries are random things but the Oilers knew Ryan Whitney would be an issue and chose to solve their D problems with Barker and Suttin. Andy Sutton has been a pleasant surprise, but I think we knew Cam Barker's 5x5 performance would be outside the realm of "delivering consistent defensive play." A quick note on Jeff Petry--he does pretty well here.

This is about what we might expect, right? Smid and Gilbert followed by the dog's breakfast and Barker is behind the youngsters and the old guys. Only Colten Teubert is facing softer music.
--

I think that's the measurement we should employ, comparing the Oiler blue to a real, bona fide NHL top 6. How many Oiler defensemen could go to Detroit's training camp next season with a strong chance to play every night? 

And another thing: is Ian White this good or does Lidstrom help that much even at his age? And if White is a better option than Barker--and he is--did Edmonton look into spending the extra money on White? How would they handle Petry? Why are their guys healthy? Would Smid-Gilbert improve Detroit? Where would they slot on the depth chart?

I don't remember the last time Detroit had fewer than 4 actual NHL defensemen. Probably in the days of Gary Bergman. I'm stretching it, but not by much.

154 comments:

  1. The injuries thing is a big one, and I think there is a huge ammount of legwork that could be done comparing teams who have a lot of injuries and those who don't.

    Without doing any of that research, I would imagine that Detroit doesn't need to go out and find pieces that will make a big impact, because they have those guys already - Zetterbeg, Ddatsyuk, and big Nik. Becuase they don't need to find those guys, they can take a lot of time and find pieces that work and have good durability. Most of the high end players who are available have holes, and as we know with Whitney, Hemsky, and others - Durability is a huge consideration.

    Question: Say the Oilers have decided to let hemsky go because of the injuries issue. If you're v3.2, would you trade hemsky and then just for shits and giggles sign Penner in the off-season? Who would you target (legitimately) to fill that 2nd line roles?

    Smyth-Horkov-Penner could be a brutal line to play against - if the big man could find his game again.

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  2. great post LT. I stumped for White this summer. I mentioned it yesterday, are we in on any of these deals or are we asleep at the wheel? Say what you want about Burke, but he is in on deals all the time. Seems like we have a "Do Not Disturb" sign on the door.

    We picked up retreads and salary dumps in Barker and Sutton, instead of investing in legit top 4 dmen. I think a whole lot of our issues can point right to that when talking about our extended slump. Defense is more important then people realize. Especially when you consider that a good bunch of our forwards attack with speed and actually need the puck on their stick in transition and not just a puck off the boards. Only Gilbert and Whitney can make that pass, and that won't do. And when the 3rd pairing is on, all transition offense grinds to a halt.

    If management actually wants to make a run, go get a few solid dman to round out the team. Petry is going o be a player, but in my opinion he wouldn't be hurt by playing in the minors. At least sit, dump peckham and replace him with a solid vet to play with Petry. Makes our D depth so much better. So who to target?

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  3. Go after a team that is struggling or in cap trouble. I target Buffalo and Carolina.

    Trade for Gleason and Ruutu from Carolina. Not sure what it takes, but both are UFA's, and youth may get you those players. Get em now, so you can move them at deadline if things don't work out. Gagner plus peckham would get it done, since Carolina needs a 2nd line centre. Both are 28, both play physical, and both make us better. If not Gagner, maybe you move Hemsky and Peckham if Carolina is trying to jump start their offense you may be able to get that deal for Hemmer, Peckham and a pick/prospect.

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  4. I missed the part where you explained why it made sense to give up youth for impending UFAs this year.

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  5. Steve Smith: you do it if you actually want to make the playoffs. If not, then no worries, but a decision needs to be made on some of our youth. The whole point of accumulating youth is to use it to add veteran players to help you make a run. Those two players make us better and more balanced right now, and are young enough that you may convince them to resign and add missing parts to our team. Perfect trade? of course not, but if they insist on playing Lander with the big club, and next year you have too many forwards then you need to move a top 9 guy. Gagner gets you needed players. Where does he play next year? That is the issue. Ruutu adds size, and if it works out you re sign him. If not then you walk away. I would prefer to move Hemsky for Gleason and Ruutu, but it may take Gagner.

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  6. LT: Smid-Gilbert, 3-4 on detroit. Should be 3-4 in edmonton.

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  7. Rickibear

    Everyone else, including likely Weber, is 3-4 in Detroit. Which means the Oil have a pretty reliable tandem for their 1-2.

    With all the chaos in Mtl, a smart, aggressive GM would do some raiding to get some quality from them. Would they be interested in Hemsky for Gorges? They lack offense and might bite in desperation and Gorges is disenchanted with the whole situation their. I know he is an impending UFA, but then again, so is Hemsky. WG's analysis of his play makes me much more interested in seeing him acquired (hat tip).

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  8. As for the D this year or next:

    Whitney - ????
    Smid - Gilbert
    Petry - ????
    Potter-Teubert

    I'm OK with that if you add a true top 2/4 vet dman. Weber/Suter would be amazing, but not happening. UFA's available? Not many top 2 guys, but Gorges for Montreal would be a great fit. And will cost $4.5 mill plus per year, but who knows if he comes here. Although, with the kids getting better I think Edmonton is a much nicer option for UFA's then it has been in the last decade.

    UFA dmen who are between 27-31 and who would be in our top 4:

    Suter, Gorges, Beauchemin, Gleason, Wideman, Boychuk.

    Want to truly compete, add 2 of them and this team changes completely. Not likely I know, but we need at least one to truly compete for a playoff spot.

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  9. Ian White is a classic example of why some teams lose and lose and lose. He was the best player the Flames got in the Phaneuf trade but they didn't appreciate him and then let him go for nothing.


    This is the road that the Oilers are heading down with a number of their good second tier players. How teams manage these kinds of players, either in how they add them or how they lose them, is the most important consideration for any team.

    I was optimistic going into this season but this team has gone backwards in every way they could this season. Three young stars aren't anywhere near enough to build a team around if all the other good players are flushed down the drain.

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  10. I've said it before, but fans of the Oilers seem to be bi-polar. I've noticed a particular trend - When the team is leading the conference the fans are very happy, but when the team nears the bottom of the league, the fans are very unhappy. It's totally crazy.

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  11. If/when Tambellini ever decides to upgrade his defense he basically has a blank canvas to work with. There really are no core pieces (maybe Smid and Gilbert but they are good 2nd pair guys) so he could sign or trade for a Defensive D, an Offensive D or a two-way D and its going to fill a need.

    With the forwards though its a different story. With Hall, Eberle and RNH the core is set and now its about obtaining specific skillsets to build around them.

    DBO: I think you are absolutely right to target a player like Rutuu. He can play every forward position and brings an element that his team is missing and desperately needs. High intensity, grit, a little bit of unpredictability for the opposing defenders retrieving pucks and he has a nice scoring touch. I think there would be a good chance he would re-sign in Edmonton (Finns don't really care about the shitty Edmonton weather).

    demov - Russian Lucifer

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  12. Steve Smith: you do it if you actually want to make the playoffs

    Yeah, what you want to do is cut short the rebuild. Sell off some young assets so that you can get 4 playoff games. Then we can pick 15th or maybe not at all in June. Then you can bitch and moan in 3 years about how the Oilers gave up on some young player too early.

    I simply cannot believe the short sightedness of some around here.

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  13. Yeah, I'm not on team "Accumulate young assets, ???, profit!!!!", but we need to make sure that when we give up prospects for established players, they're established players who are likely to be around when we're in a position to compete (i.e. not this year). Giving anything up for impending UFAs is idiocy.

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  14. Ducey: seriously? How does moving Gagner cut short the rebuild. The rebuild has been 5 years long, sorry but continuing to add youth while never taking a step forward is not a rebuild, it's the NY Islanders. Not an option for me, sorry but I'm not patient enough to wait 20 years to make the playoffs. You never know what happens when you make a run.

    And as for Gagner, does he fit? One of Hemsky or Gagner is gone next year, and if you can add a piece to make a run this year why not? You play to make the playoffs and give yourself a shot at the cup. You have to start winning or our kids will not come back. Why would they if we are constant bottom feeders.

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  15. is Ian White this good or does Lidstrom help that much even at his age?

    Like you said, the guy is a freak. Lidstrom is likely the best possible matchup for White in the NHL. He hit the jackpot this summer. White can be a mess defensively but Lidstrom can give him a lot of cheating room. White's a guy that can take full advantage of that.

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  16. Ducey: seriously? How does moving Gagner cut short the rebuild.

    He is 22 (about 2-5 years from his prime). He has a 6.0 Rel Corsi, 10 points in his last 12 games, is starting to improve on faceoffs, and is increasing his battle level. He has three seasons of at least 40 points - already.

    He is the kind of guy that you either build around or if surplus, you deal off when he has established himself for some real value. Trading him right now would be for $.50 on the dollar. Trading him for a couple of UFA's would be idiotic.

    Its the kind of thing a Mike Milbury would do to try and save his a$$.

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  17. He has three seasons of at least 40 points - already.


    Sorry, that should 4 seasons of 40+ pts.

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  18. I am all for adding pieces to make a run, when that run is to ensure a higher playoff seeding. Adding pieces to make a run at 8th is Calgary, loser logic.

    dialing- what Tambellini should be doing with the phone to find some dmen.

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  19. DBO: is that off the top of your head Cause I did a chart:
    there are only 3 viable first dmen we could target as Free agents.

    Here are the dmen who:
    1. Have EVTOI
    2. face tough Comp .025 or better
    3. Viable Total Comp(comp-team)
    4. produce better than .40P/60
    5. GA league average or better.
    6. +ve Corsi
    7. Ozone start of less than 51%
    8. Ozone +/- of better than even

    There are ten Dmen who play big minutes against the best with average teamates who yeild less than the leagu avg in GA and in most cases top 50.

    Who are above average in point production. Out shoot the competition and drive the puck in the corect direction playing equal or less ozone play.

    These ten Dmen are:
    Subban
    Gorges
    Butler
    Bouwmeester
    Boychuck
    Chara
    Smid
    Gilbert
    Allen
    Letang

    So our targets should be MR. Allen and Gorges.

    There were two Dmen who were near the grade. Franson, Gleason

    So DBO nice choices.

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  20. bookie: that's the Alberta personality, not just Oil-fans. Long dark winters full of work and struggle, followed by giant near-endless summer days with very mild and pleasant weather. IMO the climate forces a type of bi-polar personality on the entire population.

    At the start of the season there seemed to be consensus the Oilers were unlikely to make the playoffs. The early strong run made some people re-consider their stance but a lot of people hedged their predictions. Also, RNH is way better than anyone predicted he'd be at this stage. I don't think the Oilers are quite as bad as their recent play would suggest but I suspect they'll be an up-and-down team all season, this is one of perhaps many downs. :( They can make the playoffs, but it just seems unlikely again, much like at the start of the season.

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  21. So this year Smid and Gilbert are one of the 4 best unsheltered d pairs in the league.

    WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  22. I'm not disagreeing that Gagner is solid and can get better. I suggested we move Hemsky first, but if you plan on playing Lander and Belanger as your 3/4 centres, you then have the Nuge and Horcoff. Unless you off load Horc, then Gagner has to move to the wing. He becomes another undersized winger. you trade your depth to shore up your weakness. our depth is wing, our weakness is D.

    LW: Hall, Smyth?, MPS, Eager, Hartikainen, Hamilton
    RW: Eberle, Hemsky?, Jones, MPS, Omark, Pitlik, Petrell

    Where does Gagner fit? Is he better then Omark at a third the cost (after you sign Gagner for $3 mill)? If you added Ruutu to the top 9, along with Hartikainen, then we have some actual size (which is our biggest issue).

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  23. Some interesting comments folks, but let me open your eyes to a couple of keys points.

    Last time I checked, we lost the game against San Jose because we didn't score enough goals! Sure, defence can always be improved, but (when healthy and playing upto their potential), I feel that our defence corps is the best in the league.

    Whitney - Potter
    Smid - Gilbert
    Sutton - Petry

    That's a hell of a 6 man unit! You take Lidstrom away from Detroit, and what do you have left? When he retires, they are screwed.

    The problem is (of course) not our defence (that will come), it is the fact that we need to SCORE more goals! When we were hot at the beginning of the year, we were lighting the lamp big time, now the opposite. There is a direct correlation there. We are not the type of team like a New Jersey or Minnesota that can win a bunch of 1-0 or 2-1 games. If we score 4 goals against San Jose we win the game. Khabi isn't going to give up 4+ goals on most nights.

    Our first line has been excellent. The problem is HEMSKY has done JACK SQUAT! Notice, when he (and Whitney) are firing on all cylinders, then the team kicks butt. When they do not, you see what happens.

    My suggestion is to try and trade either Gagner (I still think he is a very good player) and/or Hemsky for 2nd line SCORING to help out. If the second line is playing at the same level as our first line, then you essentially are doubling our offensive output every game, thus putting us back in the win column on most nights.

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  24. Red Wings should kill off any doubts re playoffs this season for all.

    Like all fans of loser teams, I've fixated on Oilers attracting Weber next July - because even Katz realises by now the current lineup is going nowhere, and Weber isn't blind - Oilers Kid Line alone means perennial contender status with him.

    It's so sad, maybe time for another drink.

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  25. (when healthy and playing upto their potential), I feel that our defence corps is the best in the league.

    Whitney - Potter
    Smid - Gilbert
    Sutton - Petry


    Hahahaha. I'm not sure if this is a brilliant troll or the work of a madman.

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  26. Bookjie really nails it re the bipolar front.

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  27. That's a hell of a 6 man unit!

    Ummm... not to be a downer for Christmas but it really isn't. With Whitney's struggles I'd say it isn't even a respectable unit - it's patchwork.

    This besides the fact that this 6-man unit hasn't yet been deployed for a game yet. Peckham has been in 28 games so far and between Sutton's and Whitney's histories, I'd think that can't be considered unexpected.

    You could argue Barker should be there instead of Peckham but that wouldn't help. The blue needs help.

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  28. Thinking that one of your players "doesn't fit in," or "is expendable," or "doesn't have a place on this team," is a surefire way to make a bad trade.

    In a finite universe there is no such thing as a good player that are expendable.

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  29. Ah bookie, I think there's few that caught your dry sarcasm and misdirection in that post.

    If I could upvote it I would you clever bastard.

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  30. It's settled, then. All the Oilers need to do is score more goals than their opposition to win games.

    I'm glad that's cleared up.

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  31. Tencers lines...

    Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
    Smyth - Horcoff - Hemsky
    Gagner - Belanger - Jones
    Eager - Lander - Petrell

    Smid - Gilbert
    Whitney - Potter
    Peckham - Petry

    Khabibulin

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  32. Qual Comp and Rel Corsi don't explain it all. If so then how to explain St Louis, (a team I consider top 4 in the west) best 6 D performances?

    Could it be that if you are stronger at F you can get by with a little less on D? i.e. if your forwards have the puck on their sticks a greater percentage of the time, can win faceoffs, are winning the board battles and backchecking well D becomes less of an issue.

    Blues make a trade late last season for Stewart and Shattenkirk and add Langenbrunner and Arnott to their top 9 F and Elliot in G via FA. Schwartz and Rattie sit on their prospect list.

    ST pretty much sits on his hands, gets gifted Smyth, gets Belanger via FA, dictating that Renney throws out boys to play against men. Also picks up a reclamation project on D and another old enough to be the father of our best C.

    STL sits 11 pts higher in the standings despite McDonald playing only 3 games and Perron only 7.

    One team with a plan vs one that prefers the patchwork approach. Or maybe the plan is to just keep picking in the top 3 until "something" clicks. Pretty tough to mess those up right?Another 5 years ought to be sufficient time to build a contender I guess.

    And we question whether a Gagner or Hemsky should be traded?

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  33. It's settled, then. All the Oilers need to do is score more goals than their opposition to win games.

    Wait just a minute...you ain't one of those fancy math fellers I been reading about here, are ya?

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  34. A quick further:

    STL top 3 centres are Backes, Berglund, and Arnott. None carry a FO% north of 50%. Steen does some mopping up.

    Horcoff, RNH, Gagner and Belanger as counters to that?

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  35. Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
    Smyth - Horcoff - Hemsky
    Gagner - Belanger - Jones
    Eager - Lander - Petrell


    A few thoughts here:

    - Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky suggests that Renney is going to try and hard-match Datsyuk like he did (with decent results) the Sedins in the two games against Vancouver back in October.

    - Sam Gagner's time as the odd-man-out in top-six musical chairs. Seems like it's shift-work with regards to who has to play LW with Belanger and Jones.
    Which leads me to my next point...

    - Rather than have an "energy" line in the bottom six, if the Oilers iced something along the following lines, wouldn't they have a chance of maybe, just maybe, getting more offense from the bottom part of the lineup?

    Paajarvi-Gagner-Hartikainen
    Eager-Belanger-Jones

    Or some variation thereof (perhaps Jones moves up and Petrell or Lander plays 4RW, for example).

    Worth a shot. I liked Bruce's analogy to the 1990 Oilers and the Murphy/Graves/Gelinas "kid line" as a great example of a different way to utilize the last three forward spots in the lineup...

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  36. The Blues were sub .500 (6 wins and 7 losses) when they hired Hitchcock. Was part of their plan going in to the season to fire their head coach?

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  37. @HBomb

    I like the idea of Gagner as a 3C and Belanger as a 4C but for whatever reason Renney seems completely opposed to moving Belanger to the 4th line.

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  38. Dan The Man:

    I get the idea Renney's a bit old-school in that he likes 2 "scoring" lines, a "checking" line, and an "energy" line.

    Funny thing, however...look back at the Stanley Cup champions since the lockout, and you'll notice the common thread of having three lines that can contribute offense plus a decent fourth line that can chip in now and then. Depth is a killer thing to have.

    Some people here have joked that "energy" line is another term for "guys not good at hockey". While I don't think this is necessarily true, I'd like to think the fourth line can provide both checking and energy, while the third line could be another source of offense.

    I'd call it outside-the-box thinking, however, recent history suggests it is anything-but-unconventional. Then again, the unconventional thing in Edmonton in recent history has been winning hockey games on a consistent basis....

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  39. I'm so done with Renney. Let's just keep shitting on Gagner. Gagner is playing hard and he's playing good.
    Why does he constantly keep mixing the lines up? Let's let them actually get some chemistry.
    Has Belanger actually had more then one or two games with the same line mates?
    Expect another game where Renney gets completely out coached again.

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  40. You can't keep every player you draft unless your drafting by position, which the Oilers haven't and wouldn't work well anyway.

    Good teams make deals that keep them good. This is different than being a Milbury and trading away good young players for nothing.

    The Oilers should first be putting their spare parts (as they deem them) in a position to look good, be it more rehab or better minutes.

    Because D take longer to develop, they either make a deal for a guy at the right point in his career, or make deals with the struggling teams (who typically also struggle financially) for lottery picks to draft more top quality forwards and speed up the rebuild plan. Lottery picks are not magic beans.

    The only problem is that ST and/or Lowe don't seem to be able to find or sell deals of any significance post lockout. I hope Katz has his well developed deal maker's eye on this.

    There is as much risk in going too slowly as in going too quickly.

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  41. The only thing encouraging about Gagner's 40 point seasons is that he was likely to improve on those numbers because of his age.

    But he is now in his 5th year and his best offensive season was in his 1st year.

    Pat Fallon scored 59 points in his rookie season and never matched it the rest of his career. There are lots of other examples of players that peaked early.

    I think Gagner can still improve on his numbers but this team still has too many forwards that play the same way so Gagner should be the odd man out imo.

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  42. Alright, who shone the Trak Signal against the clouds to announce that people were saying nice things about Gagner?

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  43. I think we can all agree that this club is a few years away from contending, no? I mean seriously contending.

    So everything Tambo does has to be with an eye to that.

    So is Gagner going to be a legit part of a contending team? The problem is we don't know. We really don't.

    Traktor is right. Kid has stalled although I think he has looked better this year than ever before, at times anyhow. jmo though

    But he's a kid. They really can't flush him unless he's holding someone else back or they get an offer that will help the team down the road. And I'm talking about a young player, not a prospect or pick, who can play. A Dman, a goalie, a big winger.

    So unless that offer comes along (and right now it isn't going to unless he starts to light it up, which he will not do playing on Belanger's wing) then you hold onto him.

    Maybe what we see is what we get but you look at guys like Smid and Jones and, to reference an earlier thread, Brodziak, and its obvious that his story may not be written yet.

    That's why I'd sign Hemsky even though his play has been iffy and he gets hurt a lot. Unless he completely falls apart (and you can argue that of course) you know that three years from now he's going to be a top six winger. Is Omark? Hartikainen? Paajarvi?

    Don't know. So you'd better keep the sure bet unless he's asking for the moon. One of those kids comes on then you can always move him.

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  44. I think being a GM is probably a very tough job.

    We all can afford to limit our attention and use what we learned from the outcomes to judge a GMs decisions. What if we really had to consider everything? How would we do?

    Lets try a simple thought experiment. We know we need defensive help so lets look at a couple of great young dmen moving by trade. One in 2009 and one in 2010. Ask yourself, were you even aware these guys were avialable and if so, would you have traded for them?

    So on June 29th, 2009 how many of you were saying ST needs to trade for Ryan McDonagh? Or consider February 11, 2010. I assume you were all sure the correct move was to pick off Nick Leddy from Minnesota? You really aren't very good GMs are you, since you missed the next Weber and Suter even though they were both first round draft choices.

    This is what we all do to ST every day. We simplify and second guess.

    Even what to do with Sam Gagner comes with enough layers of complexity to make our brains melt.

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  45. OTOH, being a GM of an NHL club is an exclusive 30-man club, complete with ridiculous perks and remuneration, and if you are a media-hound like Burke, almost endless airtime.

    I think, maybe, it is ok to challenge, criticise, second-guess, interrogate, hand-wring and make demands of each and every one of their moves. Otherwise there is no sport entertainment industry, as it is reduced to video game observance.

    I get what you're saying vor, but just because something is difficult doesn't make it above criticism (says the teacher who welcomes every educational hack's opinion).

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  46. Worth a shot. I liked Bruce's analogy to the 1990 Oilers and the Murphy/Graves/Gelinas "kid line" as a great example of a different way to utilize the last three forward spots in the lineup...

    Hbomb,

    I was harping on the exact same thing, even using the Gelinas, Graves, Murphy line as an example in this thread, in my comment at 9:32am

    Great minds and all.

    Its seems the Oiler have taken the philosophy that players like Paajarvi, Omark, Hartikainen need to play 15+ minutes a night in the NHL or they are better served in the AHL.

    Other people take that line too, including people's whose opinion I value.

    I disagree though. I think its ok to play some younger and/or less experienced players 10-12Min a night as long as they are playing with at least one complimentary player and you give them a mandate to score.

    Putting PRV out with Eager and Petrell for example is no good and he is better off in the AHL. Putting PRV out with Gagner and Harski/Omark for 12 min a night is fine though, even better than fine.

    Having your 4th line be a fenwick/corsi/shots/goals black hole simply puts more pressure on your other lines to outscore and forces the coach to shorten the bench often.

    Or in Renney's case put them out against Ingila when you have a one goal lead in the 3rd. bookiething!!

    Here's the DET top 13 forwards in terms of TOI/gm (min 10 games played)

    Hen. Zetterberg 19:12
    Pavel Datsyuk 19:00
    Johan Franzen 17:16
    Valtt. Filppula 16:39
    Danny Cleary 16:26
    Todd Bertuzzi 14:44
    Darren Helm 14:32
    Jiri Hudler 13:59
    Tomas Holmstrom 12:34
    Just.Abdelkader 12:30
    Patrick Eaves 11:02
    Drew Miller 10:51
    Corey Emmerton 8:43

    That's a nice balance. Are any of the DET media screaming that Holmstrom should be in the minors because he's not getting 16+ minutes a night? Or Hudler? Or Abdelkader?

    Contrast that to Edmonton, who has 14 forwards with at least 10 games:

    Shawn Horcoff 20:41
    Ryan Smyth 20:00
    Ryan N.Hopkins 17:16
    Taylor Hall 16:51
    Jordan Eberle 16:51
    Ales Hemsky 16:38
    Sam Gagner 15:43
    Eric Belanger 15:35
    Ryan Jones 15:05
    Magnus Paajarvi 12:02
    Anton Lander 10:51
    Lennart Petrell 09:47
    Ben Eager 07:39
    Darcy Hordichuk 03:41

    Oilers play their 3rd line more than DET, but their 4th line much less.

    Mind you, DET's 4th line looks better than EDM's 3rd.

    There are 9-10 guys that you can look at on DET's line up for scoring.

    Hey look, 3 scoring lines!!

    Renney should take note.

    To Renney's defence, the "rookie" on the Wings is Emmerton, who is 23 years old and has 152 AHL games under his belt.

    Renney has to try to do the same with a lot of kids, but I still think he's not optimizing it.

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  47. Woodguy: ok, so it might have been you who mentioned the 1990 Kid Line, or you and Bruce both brought it up. Either way, it's exactly what got me thinking about the idea of using the 4th line as a soft-minute slaughtering machine, as opposed to a refuge for a couple of "specialists" and a stone-fisted possession sinkhole (more commonly known as an NHL enforcer).

    Playing to win should dictate you want to try and take advantages anywhere possible. I say take advantage of throwing the old "gentlemen's agreement" (i.e. coaches play-off their fourth lines against each other, except if you're Tom Renney in the 3rd period with a lead on Calgary, of course) out the window and try to utilize some high skill individuals to outscore other team's knuckle-draggers.

    progry: As a good Ukrainian, I will be eating many of these over the holiday season.

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  48. That's why I'd sign Hemsky even though his play has been iffy and he gets hurt a lot. Unless he completely falls apart (and you can argue that of course) you know that three years from now he's going to be a top six winger. Is Omark? Hartikainen? Paajarvi?



    I think that if we started to think in terms of top 9, like BOS, SJS, DET and others, all of the sudden there is room for these guys.

    55-20-28
    and
    91-89-58/23

    can both play 10-12 min a night and be effective in their roles.

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  49. Put me on team woodguy. If you don't have three scoring lines you have no chance to win. It's that simple.

    The biggest backwards step this year has been the jettisoning of the players who could make up a third scoring line so that a tough, but bad, fourth line could not play in games.

    This is directly on Renney since it is pretty clear that this is his preferred strategy. It's why he has to go. His other skills notwithstanding his ideal lineup can't win and so he is putting a very dark ceiling on how good this team can be.

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  50. I was making that point Saturday too, about how effective 55-20-28 were and why it was frustrating that Renney couldn't leave well enough alone. I mean, they went up and down the ice, got the puck, got some chances and kept the opposition off-kilter. Then the next game, nothing.

    There are enough good players to have 4 strong lines, without relying on any one of them to be a 'checking' line. I don't get it.

    darked - where fans are supposed to be okay in, while GMs fiddle

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  51. I think I could suit up with Lidstrom and look that good. So yes, it is the Lidstrom-effect that makes Ian White look that good. I don't think he really showed signs that he was that good of a d-man before.

    I also would say that some of our D would look pretty glorious in a Red Wings uniform. It helps having some of the best defensive minded forwards in the league on the ice with you.

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  52. Woodguy: ok, so it might have been you who mentioned the 1990 Kid Line

    Damn, I was hoping others were on this narrative too.

    Glad you are.

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  53. Didn't Eberle virtually run White out of Cowgary? I know he made him look ridiculously bad on at least two occasions last year, and I think everyone remembers the first one!

    Does everyone really think that Ian White would have played half as well in Blue and Orange as he does in Red and White? I know I don't.

    If ST takes White instead of Barker, then the Wings would take Barker and he'd be the talk of Detroit. White would have been benched a few times already for the Oilers, and we'd be trash-talking ST on how he missed out on Barker.

    Larry Murphy was all washed up in TO, but Detroit takes him and he gets a Cup... And should ST have signed Bertuzzi as well? Hmmm?

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  54. Pat Fallon scored 59 points in his rookie season and never matched it the rest of his career.

    Pat Falloon just needs to be put with a coach who can understand Pat Falloon style hockey and with linemates that can score and then you will see what he can do! He's gonna be a star in this league and prove you all wrong! A star I say!

    I blame Craig MacTavish.

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  55. I disagree with Woodguy, I think we need one scoring line and 3 ENERGY lines! Think about it, instead of having our energy built up in short 30 second bursts and then quickly deflated by the next line out there, we would build up energy for like two and half minutes. Our Scoring line would come out with superhero levels of energy and probably score every shift. Other teams simply could not match the awesomeness of energy that was ammassed against them durring our three shifts of energy hockey.

    Someday in the future all teams will do this and it will be awesome!

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  56. Woodguy - sure top nine then, my point is basically don't dump good players when you're still finding out what you have in the hopper

    I think Paajarvi, Omark and Hartikainen likely all could play top nine but we still don't know for sure.

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  57. Woodguy - sure top nine then, my point is basically don't dump good players when you're still finding out what you have in the hopper

    I think Paajarvi, Omark and Hartikainen likely all could play top nine but we still don't know for sure.


    Agreed.

    Re-read my post and I sound like a bit of dick.

    I just think if we start thinking in terms of top 9 then we don't have to shoe horn some players into spots or think we have to punt some players because there's no room at the inn.

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  58. What this blog needs is less lawyers and more psychiatrists.

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  59. What this blog needs is less lawyers and more psychiatrists.

    The psychiatrists are too busy treating Habs fans. I mean, for goodness sakes, they have an unlingual English coach! The outrage!

    And they are thinking of bringing in Patrick Roy to coach next year.

    They are crazy.

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  60. Dan the Man said...
    The Blues were sub .500 (6 wins and 7 losses) when they hired Hitchcock. Was part of their plan going in to the season to fire their head coach?


    Amazing what a team that isn't afraid of change and to make a deal is capable of huh Dan? Not that we'd know of course.

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  61. Love all the new top 9 talk happening here. Damn shame we don't have 9 players that can match up well with most other teams top 9's but hey...nice to dream.

    Gagner vs Bolland, Malholtra, Arnott, etc. Laughable.

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  62. Call out to Asiaoil:

    You once shared with us this page about predicting NFL QB's into the future with stunning accuracy. If you still have it around it would be nice if you could reshare it.

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  63. Amazing what a team that isn't afraid of change and to make a deal is capable of huh Dan? Not that we'd know of course.

    Amazing what a team can do when it's not playing nine out of thirteen on the road.

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  64. So, you guys don't think we are going to win the Cup this year?

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  65. Doc, I am afraid I am delusional, I am an Oilers fan.

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  66. pboy: Oh God yes. It's a matter of 4 games or 5.

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  67. There is a concept in game theory of "strategic dominance" and a concept in computer science of "ordering relations" and "total order", the ability to put objects into sequence by merit.

    Somewhere in the intersection of these concepts is the aberration of Traktornomics, whereby if we subtract twenty points from Gagner's rookie season he becomes a better player in 2011, everything else held constant, on the premise that it robs b to pay a in the ax + b regression equation of orbital apogee.

    The standards of argument are pretty high (though not impossible) to adduce that an extra ten goals in Gagner's rookie season (holding everything else fixed) should be considered a portent of liability instead of an accomplishment--if you pump any juice into your PHB deflector shield.

    PHB: You're the best sales person on the team since the invention of spreadsheets, but your numbers are down 10 percent year over year, so I'm awarding you a negative bonus. Enjoy your xmas.

    Who would you regard as the better bet moving forward, with PTS totals from his first four seasons:

    40 40 40 40
    24 29 34 39

    ?

    Note that the first player dominates the second player, having performed better in every season to date, but the second player does have a pair of nines.

    It's a tough call.

    After his injury, discovering that Whitney << Smid is a lump of coal from St Nick. Discovering that Whitney << Peckham is a lump of smouldering sulphur from Hades.

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  68. Love all the new top 9 talk happening here. Damn shame we don't have 9 players that can match up well with most other teams top 9's but hey...nice to dream.

    I think they'd match up ok against a lot of teams.

    If your bottom 2 lines are going to get similar ice time and you run one line of 55-20-28, they you just need to flesh out the other line,

    Currently 57 and 37 are two of the poorest NHL options available in the entire league.

    Surely 89,92,23,58 are >>> 57,37,16 in terms of everything hockey.

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  69. Hopefully Renney has banned any player under 24 years use of the internet.

    There's far too much access to credible sources that confirm how inept the Oilers management team really is.

    Could prove costly come contract time.

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  70. St Lou, St Lou
    I remember St Lou
    Charlie's Cheezeburgers, northside St Lou.
    It was a Tuesday.

    I also recall, bad goaltending in St Lou.
    .908 after 5 games.
    Hitchcock must have fixed it.
    The Man is a Magician.

    I wonder if he can cook a burger?

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  71. I like the Oil tonight. I mean, the Red Wings are a great team, but I think the Oilers at home have got at least a 50% chance of winning this game. If everyone's got some jump and we get some above average goaltending I would even consider them favourites.

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  72. I see no hit rules are in effect tonight again in the Oil end.

    @Ashley...get back on your meds!

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  73. Give the devil his due, Ryan Jones has continued game in and game out to play a good solid game.

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  74. Looks like our only offensive play is to cycle along the end boards, which is sad since there is room to maneuver over the blue line.

    Can't score goals or win games with no shots...

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  75. Towel, Fyodr 6'04" 210 D
    60-2-14-16(KHL)
    Solid defenseman, not the swiftest skater but provides blanket coverage in his zone. Mainly stay-at-home in style but is pliable enough to play PP, with his cotton-soft passing.
    Nickname - "Plush"

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  76. Gack that powerplay was all hat and no cattle.

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  77. This has been a much funner game to watch than the last few.

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  78. Not a horrible period, but the same own-zone problems are there. Detroit is floating around a bit.

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  79. There we go. The man's in pain.

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/12/19/ryan-whitney-long-way-back

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  80. From Elliote Friedman's 30 list

    Meant to use this last week, but that disagreement between Edmonton Oilers head coach Tom Renney and Ales Hemsky over the stick the forward uses is eerily similar to Claude Julien/Phil Kessel in Boston.

    Anyone hear about this ? What did I miss?

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  81. Man, when I was a kid and they shot Old Yeller, that was the saddest thing I ever saw. I thought that movie was the most traumatic thing of all time.

    Whitney is Old Yeller.

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  82. anyone have a feed? not on justin.tv yet

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  83. Well, Whitney doesn't have rabies, and will retire, not get shot. But same thing.

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  84. I'm watching a fox broadcast via sweden at http://www.yycast.com/ILMTVCH3

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  85. Ryan Jones Diary has another wonderful entry.

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  86. Jones scores. He must really suck. Sorry we re-signed him over the summer.

    Oops.

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  87. Wow how does that linesman miss that offside, he was staring right at bertuzzi.

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  88. Man it would be nice to win this game in regulation. That would be the best game since Chicago I believe.

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  89. Man Petry showing his inexperience by times, certainly not immune a boneheaded play once in a while.

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  90. http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Hemsky+tries+stay+positive+changing+stick/5878241/story.html

    Not terribly informative but apparently there's a story there?

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  91. Sam has some bad kind of luck with injuries. Man.

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  92. DET FSN commentators were musing over the Datsyuk / RNH matchup. Saying if Renney doesn't care, we'll see that all night long.

    What are matchups? Anyone?

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  93. A late period goal for is very un-Oilers.

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  94. The last 20 games have been killing my interest in this team, but Eberle may single handedly keep me watching.

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  95. Just caught up on the DVR.

    Nice to see the Oilers skating.

    Hall really snake bit in the 1st, two posts, he's flying.

    83 is flying too. If he had a C with soft hands his career numbers might be up 30%.

    Ebs!!!

    See what happens when you shoot?

    Rebounds are a beautiful thing.

    Did Whitney hurt his rods and cones? He's passing to red and white jersey's a lot. He caused the clustefuck that resulted in DET's 2nd goal.

    Looks like the Oilers fore check is much more aggressive. Good to see. They have wheels and a good coach plays to the personel's strength.

    Pretty happy with the effort. PP needs more pass-pass-shoot, rather than pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-shoot.

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  96. WG:

    I think you are forgetting about the fact that after 5 successful passes, you get a free goal.

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  97. Lol, what a zoo over at the Jays boards, must be a dozen threads regarding the japanese pitcher Yu Darvish negotiating rights winners...winning bid was Texas it looks like.

    Imagine an NHL team paying 50M bucks just to try and negotiate with a Swedish Elite or KHL player.

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  98. Except often in the NHL the free shot isn't there.

    Best PP in the last few years has been VAN.

    Vigneualt and the Sedin's have said the key had been 2 passes then a shot and overwhelm the net with numbers.

    Same DET has been doing for years.

    RNH is ridiculous at passing and he'll go for the extra pass, but even Gabe Desjardin has shown direct correlation between shots and goals on the PP.

    You have an extra man, use it in front of the net.

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  99. WG, what's your source on the Jays winning the posting? I thought Texas won but maybe am wrong.

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  100. I guess Gagner managed to crack himself back into his original form in the intermission. He's back out there.

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  101. Did Whitney hurt his rods and cones? He's passing to red and white jersey's a lot

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  102. Man, you don't want to hurt your rod. Believe me.

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  103. Kris is right.
    I took a wild stab at the missus one night, and no lie I thought I broke the damn thing.

    It's still bent in the middle.

    ackend - yeah, something like that.

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  104. FFS, they play two good periods and they have 2 goddam shots in the 3rd with 3 min to go?

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  105. Oilers is dumb - I hates me some oilers - drive me crazy - I hates them

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  106. They just refuse to throw the fucking puck at the net when they have a 2 man advantage. It kills me that I've been watching this stupidity for so long. Why is it that other teams are content to get the puck to the net and fight for rebounds to bang in and these guys look for the perfect shot every time? At some point, you would think either the players or the coaches would get a clue but that's too much to ask for, I guess.

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  107. Why did that faceoff come back? I missed the call.

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  108. Terrible effort in the 3rd after 2 good periods.

    Attrocious last PP. Just rotten.

    You have 2 more skaters than they do, outman the fucking puck.

    Assholes.

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  109. On a positive note, when they pull the goalie lately it seems they don't get scored on.

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  110. Belanger's missed check leads to the winning goal.

    I honestly thought they were going to get a third line guy who actually knew how to check.

    Grrr, what a frustrating game to watch.

    Kids still exciting, second line garbage and Hemsky still in "Won't" mode.

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  111. CC:

    Although he didn't show up on the scoreboard tonight, I thought that was the best game Hemmer played in quite awhile. At least IMHO.

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  112. True pboy, but when he's constantly being outshone by Jones on a nightly basis, it simply won't cut it. Horcoff gets a pass becsue of his work on the defensive side of the puck.

    Sorry, but the guy just doesn't justify my love these days.

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  113. I'd rather Eberle say that they played bad. I mean, with the PP crap you got to think that you should have played better. To say that they played well but just lost takes away from the fact that they didn't play well for long stretches of the game.

    I mean, get mad that you lost and blame yourselves for not playing well enough when it's obviously true.

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  114. I thought Hemsky played rather well. People always seem to be harsher on him when he is trying to shoot the puck instead of looking for passes. He's just doing what every coach he's ever had has told him to do. Shoot more. It's just not his thing. How many shin pads did he hit tonight?

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  115. The way Jones is going, he would have to be included in the shootouts going forward. He's money on breakaway's lately.

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  116. Jonesy has far better touch than Bucky ever had. But Bucky was a better skater and fought every heavy in the league. Similar all out effort but more differences than just the hair. I still like the comparison though!

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  117. Money quote from Brownlee's post on Whitney over at ON:

    While Whitney is 11 months removed from surgery to re-attach a damaged tendon in his right ankle last January, he told reporters after today's morning skate in preparation for tonight's game against the Detroit Red Wings that the ankle is causing him pain.

    I miss Lubo.

    I miss Lubo.

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  118. the problem with us saying we miss Lubo is he doesn't miss us.

    He asked to be traded, quietly. We all know this. So stop blaming Tambo for that anyway...

    the dig for grig is getting going

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  119. Doogie2K said...
    Amazing what a team can do when it's not playing nine out of thirteen on the road.


    Really Doogs? This is the shiny new latest excuse? Lets compare records after 82 then shall we?

    How about we just don't have enough talent? Seems to cover most of the bases.

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  120. The not actually very good club.........Belanger, Petrell, Eager, Peckham, Whitney, Petry, Dubnyk, Renney, Tambellini, Lowe. Honourable mentions to Horcoff, Hemsky, Potter, and Lander. A month ago my dog house was empty, but she is filling up fast now!

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  121. I actually don't get the anger tonight. They lost, but they played Det pretty well, Hemsky was showing good speed and effort (despite the lingering issues with the shoulder, imo), Hall was bulling his way around, and the team played a relatively consistent game.

    I dunno, but I think the team gets more from losses like this, than they do from 9-2 blowouts.

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  122. El Stinko for Grigorenko? Fail for Mikhail?

    So tired of reading more items on prospects than on the Oilers.

    Woody: totally agreed on Lander and Petrell. Would prefer to see O'Marra and a healthy Hartikainen myself. Didn't quite understand at the time why we needed both of Eager and Hordichuk unless Lowe Expecations and Renney thought they could turn 55 into some sort of scoring threat. I will say that he is not the same player he was with the Hawks in 09/10. I think Renney has the reins on pretty tight.

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  123. Ok, I need a double-check on what I saw tonight.

    First off, damn good job by the "2006" line to bottle up Datsyuk's crew. Pretty much a saw-off against one of the best players in hockey, so I'll take that as a win.

    Honestly, I thought Jones had a good game, and even the -2 net was the result of some misfortune (i.e. being on the ice when Whitney and Belanger made boneheaded mistakes that translated into goals against). But then I get home and see that by Dennis' count, he was 3-for, 8-against in the scoring chance count. Saw-him-good and the-numbers are running pretty much orthogonal to one-another tonight.

    As for Hemsky - he's still fighting the puck a bit, but he at least looked to have his give-a-damn working tonight, which was nice. And all things considered (i.e. going up against Zetterberg and, at times, Nik Lidstrom), the kids fared OK tonight, I thought. Eberle might be playing the best out of any Oiler forward right now, which says a lot.

    Dear Santa, for Christmas I'd like you to bring the Oilers a "Lidstrom". Failing you have one of those available, I'd happily settle for a Kronwall or Zetterberg.

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  124. WG - We all miss Lubo. The only thing I miss more than Lubo is the Lubo-to-Hemsky pass.

    I also miss Pitkanen. What a D-core we have had and tossed.

    Hemsky was pretty decent tonight. He's just as frustrated as everyone else (I was amazed at the utterly sullen and deadish faces), so it doesn't appear to be an individual thing.

    If Hall makes a couple weaves and some passes, that line gets 2 or 3 more tonight. He's got to remember how good he is at that.

    GIlbert's offence is coming back, slowly.

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  125. "I mean, get mad that you lost and blame yourselves for not playing well enough when it's obviously true."

    Don't worry Brett, both he and Hall looked like they were going to tear the walls apart as they left the ice tonight.

    I was right down low by the player exit tunnel...very interesting to watch facial expressions, who talks and doesn't, contrast btwn DET and EDM, trainers, etc.

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  126. "Don't worry Brett, both he and Hall looked like they were going to tear the walls apart as they left the ice tonight."

    Well, that's good to hear. I just wish that the whole team would put it together at the same time.

    Most of the interviews I've heard these days have been of the "if the bounces go our way things would have been different" type. And maybe that kind of talk is true for tonight's game but in general this team has not been playing very well.

    I would prefer a coaching change, even assistant wise, to trading Hemsky and the like. Seems like a new strategy is in order.

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  127. We lost 3-2 last night to Detroit. Like I said yesterday, our defence is NOT the problem....scoring goals is our problem!!! The evidence is before you.

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  128. the problem with us saying we miss Lubo is he doesn't miss us.

    He asked to be traded, quietly. We all know this. So stop blaming Tambo for that anyway...


    Where did I mention v3.2?

    I can't miss a player now?

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  129. Woodguy gets full marks for mentioning the Gelinas-Graves-Murphy line. If you hear me talking about the Kid Line, I'm likely referring to the Charlie Conacher-Joe Primeau-Busher Jackson that tore up the league in the 30s. They were the Kid Line.

    But then I get home and see that by Dennis' count, he was 3-for, 8-against in the scoring chance count. Saw-him-good and the-numbers are running pretty much orthogonal to one-another tonight.


    HBomb: Trouble is, the popular method of counting scoring chances is a similar methodology as plus/minus, meaning that your outcomes (both plus and minus) are to a large degree dependent on who your linemates are. If they're fucking up in our end, or creating jack shit in theirs, that will drag down everybody. Whether it's a +1/-3 on the scoreboard or a +3/-8 on the scoring chance meter, the exact same principle applies.

    Not talking about Jones last night specifically - I didn't get to see
    much of the game yet - just talking about the stat in general.

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  130. Did Lubo ask to be traded? I thought he just said that he (and his family) missed California?

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  131. HBomb: Trouble is, the popular method of counting scoring chances is a similar methodology as plus/minus, meaning that your outcomes (both plus and minus) are to a large degree dependent on who your linemates are. If they're fucking up in our end, or creating jack shit in theirs, that will drag down everybody. Whether it's a +1/-3 on the scoreboard or a +3/-8 on the scoring chance meter, the exact same principle applies.

    Not talking about Jones last night specifically - I didn't get to see
    much of the game yet - just talking about the stat in general.


    Bruce, totally agree, with a qualifier specifically on the scoring chances side. If a guy is a strong negative over a number of games in terms of chances for/against, one would have to figure he's part of the issue with that line.

    However, when looking at an individual game (i.e. a "small sample" of chances), a guy could post a "minus" but have a good game, and I'm fairly certain that's what happened to Jones last night. I think he's much better in terms of what he gives back this season in terms of opposition chances, and would like to think last-night was a one-off due to Gagner having a so-so game and Belanger having a lousy night (he and Whitney both stuck out in a bad way, IMO).

    Scoring chance or 5-on-5 plus minus are things I like for evaluating a player over a large sample. The opposite is the "error" assignment that Staples is working on. Over a single game sample, you can evaluate a player's performance that night using what is, by it's very nature, a subjective method of assigning fault, and it has value. However, I'm weary about looking at the counts over the long term, since that subjectivity building onto itself game-after-game leads to some degree of "error propagation" or whatever one would like to term it.

    Bottom line? No way I'm pinning last night's -2 on Jones. It was beyond his control, full-stop. Hell, one minus was being caught out halfway through a line-change when the Wings scored their second goal. That's just lousy timing/luck.

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