The Oilers never make a significant change at this time of year. During the Kevin-Lowe-in-management era, Edmonton has made exactly one big December trade: in 2003 they cut the Comrie cord on December 16th, acquiring Jeff Woywitka and two draft picks (which Kevin Prendergast turned into Robbie Schremp and Danny Syvret).
In November of 2000, Lowe dealt Bill Guerin and the Oilers 2001 1st round pick (Boston selected Shaone Morrissonn) to Boston for Anson Carter and the Bruins 1st rounder (KP selected Ales Hemsky).
Edmonton Oilers fans awake today to the sounds of Sonny and Cher on the radio and a repeat of Groundhog Day. I don't know if this is the day we drive the truck off the cliff or the day we spend all of our efforts getting into Andie MacDowell's pants, but to say the bloom is off the rose is pure understatement.
Among the rational things the Oilers could do are the following:
- Sit Teddy Peckman. The lesson I've learned watching Laddy Smid develop is that the old estimate of 200 NHL games for a defenseman to find his way can be more like 300. The old clutch and grab days are gone and Teddy's "gone fishing" plays are still there--and getting worse. You can't develop all of the NHL's defensemen but I think there's a player here. So I'd suggest a long spell in the pressbox. Six games, something like that.
- Play Horcoff and Belanger at center. I understand moving Sam Gagner back to center, makes complete sense. However, there's no harm in running Belanger on a 4line and then PK duties. Hell the 4line is getting killed out there, they could use a veteran hand in the middle.
- Stop shaking up the lines every night. Look, last night's top 2 lines were both good ideas, but let them play for awhile together. Gagner and Hemsky have had chem in the past and I defy anyone to find a player who Ryan Smyth can't work with out there.
- Send down Anton Lander. We all agree this is a quality prospect, but some time in the AHL to find whatever offensive game he'll bring is a good idea. Right now that 4th line is good for one enima every third period. Anton Lander will be here a long time, let's no rush it.
- Play the hell out of the kids. Why not? If you're going down in flames, at least get these players icetime and see what they can do. How High the Moon? Give them 20 minutes a night, especially at home.
- Trade Nikolai Khabibulin. I'm not saying do it tomorrow, but if this team continues to slide then a January deal that sends the Russian away (say, TBay) to another NHL city should be worth something nice for the rebuild.
- Decide if the club needs another coach for the next phase. Tom Renney's reputation is as a solid teacher and instructional coach, and a player's coach. Do the Oilers want him for another two years, or is it time to go out and get a new age coach? Mike Yeo wasn't famous and has a weird name, but the Wild are kicking out the jams. This is the time to decide, and if he is your guy perhaps someone who can help with line matching should be procured as an assistant. Coach Renney often has a mismatch out there.
- Solve the Hemsky riddle. I don't think you could get 50 cents on the dollar for him right now, so whatever his deal Steve Tambellini has to sort this out quickly. Should the organization sign him to a shorter term deal, say 2 years? Or trade him at the deadline despite his reduced value? The rebuild can't afford a "Curtis Joseph" walk situation. They have to get something or sign the man.
- Coach Renney must solve the games where the team shows up flat. I've started planning things outside Oiler games and pursue them based on the first 10 minutes. It's a busy time of year, if the Oilers aren't going to show up why should I?
- Don't lose that great start in a sea of winter losses. During their generation in the cellar, the Oilers have had some hot streaks and some winning months. It is often followed by a step into the elevator shaft and we're seeing that now. However, the team could still right the ship, end up with 40 wins and consider the season a success. At some point, you have to stand and deliver.
But for heaven's sake do something to let the fans know that losing isn't the goal here. Phoenix and Ottawa hooked up yesterday and a pretty damn good defenseman was in the equation. I'm not suggesting the Oilers do that, it's too much to hope for under the Lowe regime.
Maybe Daryl Katz will throw the fans a Christmas bone and text "there will be changes" or maybe they can send down three guys and call up three other guys.
Something. Something before Baby Jesus gets here in 7 days.
The Lowe era? I think the Lowe era saw more trades than the ST era, no?
ReplyDeleteI don't think the team is able to do something to let fans know that the plan is to win because that would jeopardize the plan to lose. That must be the plan - right? Could sucking this bad simply be incompetence? That's not possible, is it?
There are problems, but the club has some positives. Doing nothing isn't an option imo because you're burning another sesaon at the beginning of these careers without getting anywhere.
ReplyDeletePicking 3rd again is failure. Agree?
I have begun to worry about us actually following the Islanders model rather than the Chicago model.
ReplyDeleteManagement can still mess up our beautiful talent because in the cap era you can't just draft well and then sit back and watch the Stanleys roll in.
Hopefully management will make a few moves that increase our faith in them.
Lowetide: picking in the top-five again should cost Lowe, Tambellini and Renney all their jobs. It is simply not acceptable at this point.
ReplyDeleteHBomb: Stay the course then. The absolute best thing for this franchise would be to fire Lowe and Tambo. I really don't think these guys can make the right calls when they need to happen. In fact, the only proof we have of them making competitive decisions post lockout is extremely negative.
ReplyDeleteI can’t help to wonder how a game between the Oilers and the Barons would turn out, especially if you add a healthy Omark, a no longer suspended Green and the heart of Tulupov (who finally got himself a standard player contract with OKC) to the mix..
ReplyDeleteFire the mgmt team - Hire Stu the magnificient as the GM - Hire new coaches but who's available? We're in this position because Lowe hire his friend ST instead of hiring the best available GM and then ST hired his friends PQ and TR instead of hiring the best available coaches (i.e. the Wild hired Yao who has a proven winning track record)....
ReplyDeleteTeaching at the Majors level is an oxymoron. That's what the minors are for. Anyone that tells me Buchberger and Smith are technicians will get a raspberry.
ReplyDeleteOf course there are things that MP and Lander can learn and it's not confidence. For one - how to play on a smaller ice surface, two - changing speeds, three - D angles, etc. MP is still doing the same things he learned in Sweden.
But, who's going to teach him? Bucky skated flat out until he hit the end boards.
It drives me insane watching Hall and MP blasting up ice, flat out, and being destroyed on the boards. It's of no value, limited options and all bad.
The oil are not ready yet but the coaching is a problem.We lead the NHL in too many men infractions and if they had a stat for bad changes i am sure we would lead it.That is directly on the assistants as they control both areas.
ReplyDeleteI know some think Peckham had a better game but he took himself out of the play going for big hit like allways and which usually results in a goal but this time a penalty and a goal.As the coachs keep playing him big minutes they must approve.
Two of the assistants are old buds of Lowe who were handed to Renney .Smith had no coaching experience and Bucky had hands on experience at our expense and the AHL farm team.Dont look for Lowe to fire either of those two.
"Then, as the LORD our God commanded us, we set out...through all that vast and dreadful desert that you have seen..." (Deut. 1:19). or was it Jay Feaster, Calgary Flems
ReplyDeleteTold ya we were gonna be a whole lot grumpier this morning than last.
ReplyDeleteGonna be a lump of coal in our collective Oiler stockings this winter.
Mark Lee mentioned last night that Tambellini said the day before ( maybe the Gregor interview?? not sure) that he thinks he has the pieces/assets to make a playoff run so don't expect too much.
ReplyDeleteThe sentiment in the fanbase is shifting going by the internet sites....could get ugly before too long...Redwings, Wild, Canucks, Wild, Islanders, Blackhawks next few games.
Did the Oilers even kick the tires on Turris?
ReplyDeleteNo, they don't do trades midseason, but they signed two lummoxes to do the same job. Talk about brain dead. Boy, they sure have had an impact on this team. One was stupid, two was brain dead.
The Oilers management team - Doctors Doolittle
"Do something" - Nail on the Head... Lowetide it is time to start writing aggressively about the vision for the Edmonton Oilers and the direction management is taking them.
ReplyDeleteYou are right. Finishing in a lottery situation is unacceptable. The refusal to make decision about personnel on the team is handcuffing the club. Yes you will not get full value for Gagner and Hemsky. Last year you might have not got "full value" but that is why you are paid to be a GM. If Hemsky and Gagner were playing well enough to get full value you probably wouldn't want to trade them... At some point you decide what kind of players you want on your team and you remove those that don't fit. I hate to see this but look at Brian Burke in Toronto. I hate the Leafs. But at least he said "I am going to make the Leafs X kind of team" and he did it. And they are playing pretty well. The Leafs did all of this without sewering 3 to 5 years, drafting high and seeing what sticks.
The Oilers have RNH, Ebs and Hall... More than enough top end talent to build a team around.. Do it already... Tell me the vision of the Oilers ST... Tell me what kind of team I am going to watch in 3 years... because right now I don't see it...
BTW - I would be way more comfortable with Lowe back at the helm... Sure he made some mistakes... You have to expect some mistakes along the way but at least this is a guy who looked at his club... traded for the Human Rake and Peca... traded for Roloson... Almost traded for Corey Perry (whoops... we wish he wouldn't have demanded money back from Comrie)... Decisive moves...
ReplyDeleteI can't even think of a trade ST has done except for Smyth which was thrown at him... Oh Penner... And he waited forever on that one.
Is it me or does Ales Hemsky have any drve at all? He must have been responsible for a turnover or an offside on almost every shift...at least the ones where he made any effort at all to join the play. He's either hurt, scared to get hurt again or ready to call the moving van.
ReplyDeleteA propos nothing, Lowetide, last night I dreamt that I requested from you a Letter of Marque, such that all of the asinine remarks I made around the internet would be made in your name.
ReplyDeleteNo more black tar heroin before bed.
Wondered when this post was coming. I agree with everything you said LT. I constantly pine for mid season deals to upgrade areas of weakness. The Turris thing kills me. Could you have not gotten that from Ottawa for Gagner? He has more pedigree, a solid contract and he was playing wing (where when healthy we have a ton of depth). I know they won't say, but man it seems like we aren't in on many deals. Like we are caught by surprise that a player was available. That is bad management.
ReplyDeleteAnd Tambelini saying he has the pieces for a playoff run makes me want to punch things. Seriously? That's delusional, just like being drunk and picking up a hot chick who is drunker then you, who just found out her boyfriend cheated on her and all her friends suddenly left her alone at the bar. Sorry, but that does not spell long term relationship, it spells ooooooppps what did I do and who are you, in her mind. Kind of like our start to the year, sorry but it isn't real, and won't happen again unless something changes.
And now I'm angry. Hulk smash!
As great as Khabby was early on - and I'm not debating that - his play isn't the reason why the Oilers Were soundly outchancing the opp early on and are now getting their brains beaten in when it comes to that metric.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what the hell happened - and losing 4 was a bad stroke of luck - between that loss on Nov 26th to when they went back home for that homestand but once they hit the Rexall ice it was a totally different team.
They would still score the game's first goal but the second and third periods were a different story and it's been over since that. The one thing that could be held onto - outchancing at home - went out the window and now there's now dingy left and the sixth-consecutive-season-without-playoffs-storm is rapidly approaching.
Renney had some success with the Rags so I'm not saying he's not capable but I think he's lost this bunch and I don't want to lose another winter to watching him flailing in vain.
The rest:
24: a ten-cent head and doesn't possess the upside that we should hang onto him.
83: looks for all the world like he's sick of being an Oiler. No way to come close to winning a trade for him and every game his value drops
35: deal him off and it's hello top eight pick
Kids: play them more at EV and it's hello top eight pick. two games in a row where they looked like monkeys when other coach got his better players out against them.
Oilers can't win by letting the kids play all kinds of time: you're not gonna have your cake and eat it too. If you wanna pump their TOI then it's through the PP and favourable zone-starts. But it can't happen straight up.
The Rundblad and a 2nd for Turris trade really, really pisses me off.
ReplyDeleteGagner is a way more proven talent at this point. I would have taken Rundblad and a 2nd for Gagner in a heartbeat.
Lowetide - I agree, doing nothing should not be an option. If Tambi stands pat between now and Jan 15th then he should be fired. Him, and Lowe and they can take Renney with them.
Yeo isn't the only rookie coach having success. Look at Dineen in Florida.
Its time for new blood, top to bottom.
Well put LT, but it shouldn't be "Fail for Nail" anymore it's now "Dig for Grig". This kid has size, soft hands and sick passes. If we fall where I think we are projected to end up (Top 10 to Top 5 pick) we could be picking up a guy like Slater Koekkoek to Matt Dumba.
ReplyDeleteI was a little ticked yesterday when I saw Ottawa gave up such a touted prospect for a trade that ST probably could have pulled the trigger on, sending them Gagner (+ pick maybe) for Rundblad.
LT do you really think we could get much for Khabi?
Whether in business or professional sports, this is what happens when you have the old boys club running the show.
ReplyDeleteThey are extremely difficult to get rid of.... the only known antidotes being unbiased ownership or the passage of time.
I don't see either one of those happening in the near future.
Wait. You mean this is only the 25th best team? You mean a bunch of rookies and sophmores are inconsistent and have trouble with defence and negotiating the trap they see out of 90% of the teams they face?
ReplyDeleteWho could have seen that?
They were -79 last year and are even this year. They should finish maybe -30? Thats a big improvement.
They just sent down Tuebert and MPS and got back Hall and Potter. Thats something.
Hopefully they trade whats left of Hemsky's soul, Sutton's paycheck, and Bulin's back for a few good picks and prospects at the deadline. That will be something.
Patience.
"bismo" - what LT needs for his rapidly developing ulcer
I wonder if things have become a little too "safe" for the Oilers. As you mentioned LT, in the last couple years there have been no significant trades during the season (trade deadline aside) and even this year, there's been very few "demotions" to the AHL. Omark and Paajarvi are the only ones, and the Paajarvi one was long overdue after so many healthy scratches. The AHL has been used as injury replacement as opposed to providing pressure on some of the "bubble players" to perform.
ReplyDeleteI know the idea of a roster "shake-up" having positive effects can't easily be quantified in math terms, but when someone's job is at stake, there tends to be a little more urgency to perform. Sometimes that's the biggest effect a trade or a fired coach has... it's not the actual personnel that are brought in or shipped out, but the reminder across the roster that no one's job is safe and the hammer is starting to come down. Some people respond positively to such incentive, some people negatively. I wonder if it's time to figure out how the Oilers respond.
Now, to be clear, I don't want the Oilers to make a trade for the sake of making a trade or fire Renney just because it's the easiest thing to do... but I wonder if losing has become a little too acceptable, that a poor outing is just another "learning experience" with no negative consequences other than a few points lost in the standings... I wonder if things are a little too "safe".
I don't think ST and Lowe believe they can make hockey trades or sign anyone of note. Just trade a few cards that nobody really wants, or give them away like fools.
ReplyDeleteWhile they may be right, that is not a good thing. They have deferred to the draft to make the team better, likely hoping that it will fix all of their problems in managing.
If that is the plan, and Katz backs it, still they need to "DO SOMETHING!" They must fail with purpose and guarantee top picks.
At the very least they maximize assets (cherry minutes) they want to move and work the bottom feeders until someone gives up their first. These are young/youngish players they are likely looking at moving so there is a strong case to make to a GM of a struggling team - getting the few years of development for free and an NHL player, immediate help, where as the draft is always a risk. They also have the money to eat bad contracts as incentive.
I think the part that is so frustrating is everyone outside of Oiler offices can see that complete inaction isn't good in regard to either approach to rebuilding. Either make some player deals or get some more high picks and get things moving.
Waiting for another one or two single top pick drafts and then starting the climb is just too risky and shows no respect for the enjoyment of fans watching their team.
Lander should go to OKC for the second half to prepare for the Calder Cup run.
ReplyDeleteOmark should be in the NHL for the second half being showcased.
Run Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff, and Belanger as the centres. If Lander is in OKC, OMarra and Vandervelde can be given short stints in the NHL.
Smyth is getting cheaper to re-sign, which is both good and bad simultaneously.
Hopefully, Hemsky finds his game by the trade deadline so the Oilers can actually get something of value for him. He needs a change of scenery.
"Waiting for another one or two single top pick drafts and then starting the climb is just too risky and shows no respect for the enjoyment of fans watching their team"
ReplyDelete- Agree 100%
Comments like this scare me...
"We are only in year 2 of the rebuild"
"These are the years where you acquire the pieces to set yourself up for the next decade"
Nice way to never make a decision... Never have to design a team... Just throw it against the wall and see what sticks...
If Oilers can protect Nikolai Khabibulin from bad games
ReplyDeleteHe will become an option for a playoff bound team.
I'm not sure Tampa wants another old goalie.
Tell me again about the Smyth deal. Lombardi is laughing his ass off. A six mil tutor? What's he going to teach?
ReplyDeleteBut hey, he's a fan favorite. It's called subtraction by addition. An anchor now and in the future.
Results, MP is now in the lower half and he's not scoring. Put him on the fourth line or better yet in the press box.
Asset management - yeesh
As to Turris vs Gagner
Size, Skating, Shot. Turris was buried on the back forty, wanted out and got his wish. Anyone thinks that Gagner gets a Rundblad is dreaming.
What's MP worth right now? Hall got hurt so there was a chance for MP. He got one game. Instead it was Gagner.
You want to talk Mr Dithers, that describes Renney. Gagner is now RW, LW, C all in twenty games. How is that working out?
If, by mid-January the team still is faltering, alter the team dynamic. Get rid of Hemsky and Gagner. Try to leverage them for a legitimate second pairing defenceman. That would then at least give us three on our roster and something to build around come free agency.
ReplyDeleteRun your lines as:
RNH-Hall-Eberle
Horcoff-Smyth-Jones
Lander-MPS- Hartikainen
Belanger-Eager-Petrell
Let the kids drive the team, have Horcoff’s line handle the toughs and get the greasy goals, and give meaningful minutes to the Nordic Region.
Belanger can spot in for PK and draws when needed.
Aside from the kids, coach to consistently and aggressively get the puck in deep, establish the forecheck, and start carrying the game physically.
The NHL holiday trade freeze kicks in at midnight tonight and runs until December 27th.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers play murderer's row in the interim...Detroit, Minnesota and Vancouver.
What I think everyone is striving for is a team identity... It isn't there. I think the lessons of the NYI, Columbus, Florida is no identity. Chicago had an identity and built around Kane and Toews. Is Edmonton a skill team? Lightning pre 1-3-1 No Are we a puck possession team? Like Det, Van... No Are we a big tough team? Boston... Nope
ReplyDeleteST - who are the Edmonton Oilers?
I don't consider myself a conspiracy theorist, but these last stretch of games have to make you wonder. At some point either Renney lost the room, or the tank initiative was put back in place.
ReplyDeleteThe start of this season was notable in that Renney appeared to be making deft decisions, smart TOI allocation, razor sharp line matching etc. Now, its more of the same, funneling out mismatched players ad infinitum, over reliance on the fourth line, having Whitney on the ice, and piss poor line changes. I dont believe a smart coach would make the decision to run RNH/Eberle in a 4 on 4 situation against Thornton/Pavelski when protecting a lead.
My expectations for the Oilers this year was and remains low. At the start of this season I would have considered 7-10th place finish with a 20-25 goal increase in their differential a success, so by those metrics they will likely meet my expectations, but the inability to address the problem with team defence leaves me as frustrated as ever. I for one am all for top-down purge, from GM to the pro scouting department to the coaching staff. Something has to give.
While I'm firmly in the camp of "Do Something!", the Oilers were in each of the last few games, only constant defensive breakdowns leaving the goalie high and dry accounted for each loss.
ReplyDeleteWhile we all are second guessing Renney for how he's handling the forwards, the real problem on this team is the defense.
Until something is done to fix it, this team is still a top-10, even top-5 lottery team.
Last night's loss came down to one or two errors defensively, and the inability of 94-89-83 to out-score their matchup. It did come with a much better effort than the Phoenix game though and normally I wouldn't be too upset with this loss considering the effort against a very good team--if hadn't come on the heels of a few dozen other losses.
ReplyDeleteThis team is going to lose a few against good teams with good goaltending when they don't make less mistakes than the other guys. And that's part of growing up.
The problem isn't games like last night; the problem is burning games like the one in Phoenix, and against other teams we should match up better against. Those are the games we want to see this team take steps forward in.
But they haven't. And they had a string of easy matchups that their thin roster couldn't beat when injuries and a still half-crippled Whitney and a lost Hemsky were part of the equation. Opportunity lost till the sched weakens again in 2012.
Does all that means we have to DO SOMETHING?
Well certainly with regards to the long term picture there is still work to be done, but that's the kind of work that's going to require patience not panic. Other GMs can smell when there's blood in the water and are gonna go into any deal in full-on piranha mode.
The problem to me eye has been the vets. There either isn't enough to calm the waters, or the ones we have aren't good enough. On defense, perhaps both are issues. Certainly the diminished play of Hemsky and Whitney have been issues.
Whitney looked a little calmer last night, like his usual self, and he actually was in a couple of foot races he didn't lose. He missed a lot of time, and is coming off a serious injury, I think it is appropriate we be a little more patient... I don't think we know for sure yet what we have.
With regards to Hemsky, I think the last Brownlee article is dead on. Brownlee heavily implied that Hemsky's uncertain play was due to a lack of a contract offer. I can easily see that affecting him, along with his minutes being cut, as he must feel he's likely to be traded every day, and he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would handle that uncertainty very well.
If I'm management, I have a sit-down with Hemsky and communicate to him their stance: yes, there is a chance of a trade, but the delay of an offer is because we're trying to ascertain his value going forward. In all likelihood though, I think Hemsky will be traded. I think they will wait as long as possible to see if his play improves, in the hope of maximizing return. The hope now will be a prospect and mid level first in return.
If I'm management, I scour the world for a top 4 defenceman. He doesn't have to arrive right now, but before the start of next season for sure.
If I'm management I look for a deal for Khabibulin, but despite his improved play, the ticket price is too high and I doubt he's moveable with that year remaining.
But above all, pull a Douglas Adams and "Don't Panic!"
Smith is not a 6 million dollar teacher, his actual salary is lower than that. Showing the young ones a work ethic is easily worth what the team is paying him.
ReplyDeleteThe problems in this organization are systemic.
You have an owner that wants to relive the glory of the boys on the bus, but his vision is clouded by the management of his team. He has the desire to win, and knows what winning feels like, but no idea how to accomplish it.
Team management has the owner wrapped around their little finger. Lowe hangs on to his job based on one Stanley cup finals run and a mittful of rings won as a player. Has a goat boy in Tambellini to blaim all his problems on and an owner completely under his spell.
Tambellini has all of the responsibility and no actual power. He implements Lowes orders and takes the crap for everything.
The team is full of boat anchors with either bad contracts, injury prone players or both.
Fans are paying money to be in a waiting list to be able to buy tickets to watch bad hockey.
I don't blaim renney, he was saddled with inexperienced assistants and a Swiss cheese lineup.
Something has to give.
Flatten the management structure by putting one guy in charge, let the coach hire his own staff, and let time run out on some bad contracts.
SpOILer
ReplyDeleteYou were definitely right, everyone today is pissed. We also played a good SJ close
LT
For the Oilers to make a move they would have to have a clue what to do. I do not have faith that either Lowe or Tambellini have the knowledge to assemble an NHL championship roster. They certainly know how to lose sufficiently to get top draft picks.
I also agree with Ducey that this team has improved. Mostly up front. We have more skill today than at any time in the last 20 years.
We also have a mediocre defense, too many small forwards and an unsettled goaltending situation.
I am less worried about salvaging any attempt at making a run for the playoffs and would much rather see us address and fill in holes.
We need to get bigger on the lines where our highly skilled small forwards are not playing. And no I do not mean Hordichukesque. We need guys who play like Blake Comeau and GlenX. Good skating big bodies who finish checks.
Remain of the view that we need to have multiple packages ready to trade for Suter or Weber at the deadline. It will be expensive but acquiring a true # 1D would force everybody on our D down a slot or two.
And FFS target the best FA keeper under age 32 and sign him because DD is not , at this point in his career, on a path towards being a #1 and our kids are 3-4 years away
So panic? nope but start identifying holes and filling the freakin things in or maybe LoweBellini will realize S MacGregor may become the head of hockey operations
A positive note on an otherwise negative Sunday - Toby Rieder scored 5-8-13 in 5gp to lead the U20 Group A Tourney in scoring (goals and points) and earn-back Germany's spot in the 2013 WJHC. Also of note, despite being drafted as a winger and playing as a winger in Kitchener, he played 1C for Germany, taking the 4th most faceoffs in the tournament (47%).
ReplyDeleteMBS strikes again.
Horcoff hasn't scored in 10 games.
ReplyDeleteSmyth hasn't scored in 10 games.
Hemsky has 1 goal in his last 11 games.
What bothers me is that players like Brodziak and Glencross were here at reasonable salaries and are now elsewhere. I'm not that worried about Whitney, he needs another ten or so games to come back to form. Potter looks good coming back, Sutton will be back and Peckham is seventh again
ReplyDeleteSmyth and Horcoff were ridden hard and put away damp too many times. The old men wore out.
ReplyDelete"What bothers me is that players like Brodziak and Glencross were here at reasonable salaries and are now elsewhere."
ReplyDeleteBrodziak and Glencross are no good. Same with Jones.
At least that's what the math guys told me.
The math guys loved Glencross and Brodziak, and will love Jones if he can play as he has this season.
ReplyDeleteDennis is sure right about Hall though. I had been noticing the same thing, and wanted to address this earlier, but wanted to analyze it a little longer first...
ReplyDeleteHall consistently takes bad angle shots. I think there's two things at play there. One is that I don't think he is trying to score, I think the idea is to create rebounds. The other is that in the past when he has cut into the middle, he has gotten absolutely labelled. I think there's been some instruction from management to keep it more North-South.
I think they could set up that line's plays better to put Hall in better shooting positions, but his bull in the china shop act is creating spaces for his linemates. I think we're at least a year away from Nuge being able to consistently create space for Hall, the way Hall does for him.
There is still a lot of teaching and development for these kids to go through. It was nice to see them playing more as a unit last night though, with a plan, rather than trying to win games on their own as we have seen sometimes in the past. They had a couple of real nice shifts.
And if Nuge buries that backdoor pass from Ebs, we might be talking about a win.
Losing Brodz and Glencross were absolutely asinine moves considering the state of the team at the time. Just fucking stupid. Probably the two moves I hate the most over the past half decade. More than Vish for Whitney.
ReplyDeleteMath guys said Glenx was a lightning in a bottle and were praising Olczyk's new salery grid for signing and in Glencross' case, not signing 4th line players.
ReplyDeleteAll I remember about Brodziak is I was the only one who liked him and ice dragon too because she thought he was eye candy.
Almost everyone here like Pouliot over Broziak lol
Lest we forget...
ReplyDeleteSheldon Souray
31GP 4G 10A 14P +6
I wonder if there is a lot that can be accomplished with a trade at this point. Acquiring a top end D-man is difficult at the best of times. Philly is likely more motivated and able to afford the few available assets right now. Big tough power forwards don't grow on trees. We won't get quality by offering slumping, injury prone, aging or rental players. I would not be happy to see the team trade away the core young players. The easiest fix is getting the team to perform up to ability.
ReplyDeleteTraktor: That's miles from reality.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have 2 Dmen who would be in the opening line up of any other NHL team.
ReplyDeleteIts not the 2 that everyone thought before the season, but the number is the same.
Massive problems in the transition game.
Far right end of the bell curve goaltending made everyone think this team was better than they are.
Getting Dmen who can help today almost never happens during the season where Dmen value just grows from Oct and peaks at the trade deadline.
Adding Rundblad would have been good for the future, not so much for today. I would prefer an Actual NHL Dman back for 89, but probably would have done that deal.
Everyone, even the MSM, saw this preseason and PJO put it best:
The defence was full of holes and all he could obtain was Andy Sutton and Cam fucking Barker.
You are supposed to fill holes from dealing from a position of strength. They have a lot of forwards. Not sure if any team really wants to deal a D for an F and you probably have to pay a premium.
Dennis said:
Oilers Were soundly outchancing the opp early on and are now getting their brains beaten in when it comes to that metric.
Playing 94-10-28 against the toughs and giving 4-93-14 70% Ozone starts worked for a while.
When it stopped working, Renney never went back to it.
I'd like to see: (in terms of toughest opp to easiest)
94-10-28
4-89-83
91-93-14
55-20-56 (Harski)
Hall has shown to already be an outscorer, 89 has that game in him, and 83 has been for a while, even though he's had a run of bad games (83 still leads the team in Corsi, and also in David Staple's SC metric)
Big thing is all the forwards coming back and supporting the mostly AHL D and get the puck out of the zone.
The break outs and transition are a clusterfuck that should have Yakety Sax as a theme song.
If Oilers brass want a tank job they're certainly going about it the right way.
ReplyDeleteBPA at the draft guys, forward or defence, hope it's Yakupov lol but probably the next level of talent.
Talent that can fast track it's way to the top of the Oilers attack would be sensational, which always reminds of what the 1970's Sabre's fans got with the French Connection.
@ WG
ReplyDeleteYou, like many other here, make it seem like acquiring NHL defensemen is akin to untying the Gordian knot when competent GM's seem to be able to accomplish the feat with regularity.
For example, in the past 12 months, Brian Burke picked up Jake Gardiner for a song, John Michael Liles for a second round pick and Cody Franson for a piece of used chewing gum.
IMO, it is really an issue of Lowe and Co. not being able to judge talent.
As Tambellini said just this week, he thinks he has the pieces to compete for a playoff spot and that really speaks to how out of touch with reality the management team is.
oops, LT, please proof read your article.
ReplyDeleteYou accidentally put Tambellini in the same sentence as the word "quickly".
Might want to change that.
i think Traktor is right to criticize Smyth, Horcoff, Hemsky, and I'd add -obviously- Whitney. (20 MM or so in cap hit, all veterans)
ReplyDeleteThose guys are supposed to carry the team, and have helped carry worse teams in the past.
But their last 10 have been poor, depite tough matchups.
----
Here's what I see as the problem: The kids make a lot of turnovers and can't cover opposing forwards down low. And all of the Oil D-men, sans Gilbert-Smid, can't cover up these mistakes. As such, every team in the league knows how to pin the Oilers in at will for long stretches. This hurts goals against and goals for at ES and penalties taken versus penalties drawn. (Gilbert and Smid are an exception, and have done well, but neither is CFP, and that unit isn't going to best the league's elite every night. They're not THAT good to drag the whole team with them.)
Other teams have also realized that if you can neutralize the Hopkins-Eberle line, the rest of the team won't hurt you that badly. (This is a hit of a mystery, because guys like Smyth, Belanger, Whitney, MPS, Gagner, Horcoff have a history of at least average NHL offense, you must admit.) As such, you see opposing teams making sure to keep it simple in their own zone, avoiding turnovers while that line is on the ice.
There are only two things that can be done to solve this problem.
1. Get some D-men who can cover up for the kids and get the puck moving in the right direction. Waive Peckham and Barker. (Teubert looks better.) Trade prospects for Suter or equivalent. Drop Whitney to third pairing and pray he regains movement.
2. Get more forwards who can play with the kids to help them dominate the ice 5 on 5, especiialy own zone play. Also, use the vets we have to help them. Use Eager and Hordichuk more sparingly and find a 4th line that can help at ES, a la the old Glencross line. Maybe this:
I think this should be the top 6:
Hall-Horcoff-Eberle
Smyth-RNH-Hemsky
MPS/XXX-Gagner-XXX
Petrell-Belanger-Jones
Also, kick Belanger off the PP. Give the kids more PP minutes.
---
That said, I expect the Oilers to do nothing for a while, then trade Hemsky for picks and finish just outside the lottery.
Hilarious no one talks about Eberle much, who's only tied with RNH for the points lead of this occasionally exciting for a change hockey team.
ReplyDeleteEberle is a world class talent. 50 goal scorer, probably multiple times when his line grows up in 1-2 seasons.
Last night RNH was behind the Shark's net with some bigger looking Shark player, RNH leveled him to the ice and then skated away chasing the puck lol.
You, like many other here, make it seem like acquiring NHL defensemen is akin to untying the Gordian knot when competent GM's seem to be able to accomplish the feat with regularity.
ReplyDeleteFor example, in the past 12 months, Brian Burke picked up Jake Gardiner for a song, John Michael Liles for a second round pick and Cody Franson for a piece of used chewing gum.
DSF,
My point was how hard it was to do in-season.
All the deals you pointed out happened in the summer.
v3.2 needed to trade for a top 4 D in the summer, but didn't do it.
His crowning achievement was overpaying a lottery pick wash out after he was bought out by another team.
Trying to get a top 4D in season is next to untying the Gordian Knot, unless you are sending back a ton the other way.
The only one of those who was a top 4 at the time they were traded was JML.
Good on Burke for stealing Gardiner as well.
I doubt Franson will ever be a top 4 Dman in the NHL. Too many defensive leaks.
Traktor: That's miles from reality
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure you're being fair to Traktor, LT. I also remember there being a strong sentiment that GlenX was riding an unsustainable shooting percentage and would be falling back to earth.
@ WG
ReplyDeleteYou're a pretty tough marker.
Franson just turned 24 and is +26 on his career.
Smid is a year older and is -42.
I'm thinking Franson may have a little upside.
Schitzo: Well, we have a large number of posts from years ago, I'd encourage those who believe the math people were all over Brodziak and Glencross as being poor choices find the evidence.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak had that one training camp where he emerged and after that I think everyone was onside, and Glencross was a solid player from beginning to end as an Oiler.
I'm going to perpetuate the conspiracy theory:
ReplyDeleteKatz is the ultimate-fan-boy owner. NOTHING will change. I believe that people are going to need to eventually accept this. Katz wants and has his toy and he's got it. He will do whatever he pleases with it; it's HIS to do with as he pleases. Enjoy looking forward to Yakupov, or whomever's coming down the line. That will be our future under Katz. End of story.
All of what happens with this team begins and ends there. Katz won't fire Laforge, Lowe - The patriarchs of this and recent versions of the business of the Oilers. Tambellini is a nice right-hand man: a go-do-thy-bidding sort of schmuck who is much better behind a stronger personality. He should not be in charge. Period.
Coaching is a joke. Nepotism has rendered a useless dynamic between "Tambo's" men and "Lowe's" men behind the bench.
What we see on the ice is proof enough. This collection of players does have potential and is arguably better than they tend to show, especially with some tweaks on defense. Everybody sees that, pundits and fans alike.
Say whatever you want. The stink begins at the very top and we all know which way the river flows...
When people are finally sick enough to stay away from crappy efforts, lack of passion and an insulting lack of competitiveness for such (supposedly) high-end athletes - we may, just may, see the emperor awaken from his slumber.
I would take more losses from the Oilers if they were played like last night's loss. Spoiler is right that the thing killing this team is uneven efforts like PHX/SJ games. The goal should be to play hard every game. At least a lose to SJ with 60min of effort is entertaining to fans and develops some character in the team.
ReplyDeleteI actually thought there was some value to the 20-28-55 line and am disappointed that one has not stuck. It seemed to elevate the play of all three of them (well, to be fair, Jones has been killing it all year, mea culpa on that one). Which leaves what to do with the top 9. I think you have strengths when you play
94-89-83
14-93-
10-4-
My preference would be to bring up PRV to play alongside 14-93 but that ain't happening, so stick someone big with them to get it done, ideally Harski if he weren't hurt. Then give Horc and Hall another winger to dig things out of the corner. And then let it run to see how opposing coaches deal with 4 effective lines.
Which means I would be sending Lander and Petrell down and bring up wingers from OKC to play in the bigs.
ReplyDeleteI am excited about the three kids, though. All three are super elite offensively, and all three look like they have a head to learn the defensive side of things soon.
ReplyDeleteIn fact those three are so good that I would be okay trading Gagner, MPS, Omark, Klefbom, amd Hemsky and more, if they could get a youngish, in his prime, Weber/Pronger type to play with the trio. That won't happen, of course, but the Oilers need more elite D so badly, that they should be okay with a high, high price tag for a star D-man. Really, anyone but the three kids are expendable. IMO.
I worry about the Oilers being like those T-Bay teams that had some offensive punch but D so horrible that the whole team sucked.
"I don't like Tambellini, but what he says publicly and what he feels privately are a whole different thing"
ReplyDeleteTambellini either feels that he has the pieces to compete or doesn't have the peices to compete but is unable to address needs.
But reflect poorly on the GM.
Hemsky and Gagner are both spare parts so its not like he doesn't have ammo to go out and trade for a defender.
Well, I'm close to closing the thread, but did want to say that we're in the home stretch for this kind of thing and when the new blog is up threads will hopefully move the conversation forward.
ReplyDeleteI would bring up Harski to play with 14 and 93. Give them some room to boogie, but there is that great white named Smyth who majors in work ethic and intangibles.
ReplyDeleteBy the way - I like Smyth very much but he kills team development. If they said "Okay, Smyth, Horcoff and Jones are the heavy lifting third line", I'd be fine with that. Set out to build a number two line but this - either chicken or foul is the pits.
Yes, that was a pun. As in running around and bad odor.
@ PJO
ReplyDeleteHow the hell do you know?
It is much more likely that what he says is what he thinks and, unless you are privy to some insider information, all evidence points to him not having a firm grip on what his team needs to be competitive.
I would create an exhaustive list of missteps he's made but that would be nothing more than exhausting.
@punjabioil
ReplyDelete"I think the best thing the Oilers can do at this point is ride it out. The season is lost - attempting to make a change just to get some meaningless points will have limited benefits"
I wasn't suggesting they make trades to get better this year, just that inaction is an unacceptable decision by default.
I have been commenting for months all over the place that it is too early to make a push. They have done nothing to address the team's current needs and there is no way this team can win in the post season as it is. To try is wasting that lottery pick.
The decision is however between acquiring players to win now or waiting for the draft. There are too many redundant players in the system and it's hurting the guys trying to develop like Pajaarvi and Omark, and reducing their trade value, maybe even jeopardizing careers.
There is no need to wait for two or three more years for top picks to bail lousy management out. The Oilers are perceived as deep in prospects and youth, so package them up and send the unwanted ones to a team on the ropes for their high first and speed it up.
I believe it absolutely can be done. It's a matter of having the desire to execute the best possible plan. We have the assets, we have an owner spending money and can take unwanted contracts. It just takes good roster management and a good GM. So if ST's got it, lets see it.
I don't want to wait four years before they even realistically try to climb up and watch some good player get bored and want out or whatever. Plus I'll be bored. Twenty years is enough of shithouse hockey excepting the one year they sprinkled a little sugar on the steaming pile.
Oh, and even if it doesn't seem like, I am in a good mood, and Merry Christmas to all of you fine people!
Oh please, LT, don't close the thread. You were grumpy first, remember?
ReplyDeleteTell me what kind of team I am going to watch in 3 years... because right now I don't see it...
I'll rephrase slightly and say I hope to hell you're not seeing right now what kind of team we're going to watch in 3 years. Right now many games are indistinguishable from those of 3 years ago. It reminds me of that scene from the already referenced Groundhog Day where the clock radio lies smashed on the floor and the tinny little speaker just carries on with "I Got You Babe". Arrrrgggghhh, how could that not be the beginning of another loooooong day without much sunlight?
Bos8: Yeah, I think the injuries to both Hartikainen and Omark are a tough pill. Both of them would have seen action by now imo and you never know one of them could have secured an NHL job.
ReplyDeleteYou're a pretty tough marker.
ReplyDeleteFranson just turned 24 and is +26 on his career.
Smid is a year older and is -42.
I'm thinking Franson may have a little upside.
DSF,
Ahhh, Plus/Minus. The most flawed, contextless stat available.
You're smart enough to know context, and know how full of holes the above statement is.
Franson
09-10 NSH +15
OZoneStart 54.3% 7/7 (easiest)
CorQualComp 7/7 (easiest)
CorQualTeam 3/7 (3rd best)
10-11 NSH +10
OZS 50.2% 7/7 (tied, easiest)
QualComp 7/7 (easiest)
QualTeam 5/7 (5th best)
11-12 TOR +1
OZS 51.3% 4/8
CorQualComp 7/8
CorQualTeam 7/8
He's been sheltered his whole career, which is probably best for young D, but he's shown no signs of being able to handle the tougher sledding.
Doesn't mean he won't, just something I wouldn't bet on.
Its the same reason the Sutton, Theo and Barker lead the Oiler D in +/- this year.
They get to play behind the kids against opposition whose job it is to minimize scoring, not maximize it.
Franson is just the type of player I can see v3.2 trading Paajarvi for. Not yet shown that's he capable of top 4 minutes, but a big body with inflated numbers.
Stick him in the top 4, watch him flounder, and wonder what went wrong.
If you want to rank Dmen on +/-, then you must love Komisarek as he leads the Leafs.
Merry Christmas to all, assholes.
ReplyDeleteAll I remember about Brodziak is I was the only one who liked him and ice dragon too because she thought he was eye candy.
ReplyDeleteNo need to oversimplify to make your point, Traktor. I know I for one was a fan of Brodziak, and not because he was eye candy either. Moreover, I got the interwebz to proves it. I wrote this the day he was traded, and this last month when he was about to kill us again as a divisional rival. There's a shitload of so-called math in both.
I also liked GlenX and Stortini and continue to think that is the best fourth line Oilers have iced since before the lockout at minimum. Trouble mainly was they were a fourth line and not considered top nine material, which is where the lack of robust play and team toughness (sic) continues to be a significnat issue. But now we got a shit fourth line to back that up, and things are worse than ever.
You are profoundly mistaken if you think all the "math guys" just do the groupthink on everything. There are different ways to interpret numbers, and different numbers which different people value. Even Jones had some positive numbers that some of us valued, it wasn't just "seen him not-terrible".
Good grief WG.
ReplyDeleteDoes it come as a surprise to you that a 24 year old defenseman would be sheltered?
The "context" here is his age.
If we can agree that defensemen don't normally hit their prime until 27/28, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Franson may be able to take on a top 4 role by then.
BTW, I've watched every Leaf game this season and Komisarek was playing very, very well before his injury.
Bruce: You are the smartest hockey guy on the net. Aside from that Work Horc post a few years ago you give math a good name.
ReplyDeleteYou know Quinn wasn't a total dummy putting a crash banger with the top line. I watched Harsky coming out of the corner last year, motoring through two guys on the way to the net, didn't break stride. He could be RNH's fire hydrant.
ReplyDeleteNot a fan of Omark. By the time he finishes kanoodling around, no one knows what's happening and they're all out of position - Hemsky with less talent.
My take - Send Lander to join MP for twenty games. Then bring them up and add Hall. The season is toast. Think out of the box and see what happens.
If Omark had the talent and IQ to play on the top 6 or the defensive ability to play in the bottom 6, he would be a viable option as a PP specialist.
ReplyDeleteBut he's not any of those things.
So send him to the way of Rob Schremp, but at least try to trade him before losing him on waivers...
I'll admit that Omark battles hard in the corners and behind the net. But he beats to the rhythm of a different drum than his teammates. Hemsky at least, on a good night, can use his teammates. Omark has always been a one man show. So I don't know if I would compare them that closely.
Good grief WG.
ReplyDeleteDoes it come as a surprise to you that a 24 year old defenseman would be sheltered?
The "context" here is his age.
Perhaps that's why I said this in my post:
He's been sheltered his whole career, which is probably best for young D, but he's shown no signs of being able to handle the tougher sledding.
If we can agree that defensemen don't normally hit their prime until 27/28, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Franson may be able to take on a top 4 role by then.
Agreed that Dmen usually get much better around 25, which is probably why I said:
Doesn't mean he won't, just something I wouldn't bet on.
BTW, I've watched every Leaf game this season and Komisarek was playing very, very well before
He may be playing well, but you wouldn't take him before Phaneuf, Liles, Gunnarsson or Gardiner.
It was to show you context.
Context.
http://jam.canoe.ca/Movies/2011/12/18/19138846.html
ReplyDeletemy word verification thing is coganani...thought he was in Anaheim
Cannot believe someone is actually taking shots at the "math boys (and girls)". Invariably they are arguing with evidence on their side. But the funniest thing is that they rarely speak with a single voice. Some the best arguments on here are on what is the most measure to determine effectiveness.
ReplyDeleteThoroughly enjoy reading Bruce, WG, Willis, LT ,MC and other put forward arguments and to consider what they say in light of my "saw em good" approach.
Do not know because we rarely discuss Calgary (Woolerton...spit) but suspect that GlenX and Comeau while in Calgary are pretty effective. Know the math boys/girls would either confirm that or show how my observation was wrong.
Just because you don't like the arguments does not mean they are wrong
That's crazy talk on Omark. The guy is a puckhound, always going to the tough areas to get the puck or make a play with it. The criticisms of him belie too much reliance on youtube clips.
ReplyDeleteIf he was healthy I would put him on a line with Horc and Hall, and watch them tear it up.
Ideal lines (again, I recognise injuries affect this)
94-89-83
14-93-56(Harski)
10-4-23
20-55-28
Four lines that can kill you, 2 that are tough minutes and 2 that can eat up the oppositions bottom 6. And you could play these lines on the road too.
Lacking Harski and Omark, I would still demote Lander and bring up Josh Green.
94-89-83
14-93-Green
10-4-28
55-20-37
rhante - high class fit of temper
Has anyone seen a lot of MTL games this year?
ReplyDeleteIs Georges as good as his numbers suggest?
Grinding through a bunch of numbers on my Franson post, I ran into what Josh Georges looks like this year:
OZS 45.3% 7/7 (toughest)
OZF 52.3% 3/7
OZ diff +7%
CorQualComp 1/7 (toughest)
CorQualTeam 1/7 (best)
+/-/60 +1.06 1/7 (best)
So he's seen the best, playing with the best, with the toughest zone starts and come out on top.
Kelowna boy, will be 28 next summer. Shoots left, 6'1, 200lbs.
Salary this year 2.5MM
Free agent this summer.
If you can't land a huge fish like Suter, would it make sense to go after Georges?
With all the $ you are going to have to spend up front, does it make sense to spend a little less on the backend, ala PITT, who only have 2 Dmen making over $4MM, and only 1 at $5MM, instead of paying Suter $7MM/yr?
I think the ability to rely on Whitney to be LHD1 is gone.
Georges might be a good option if his numbers are not a mirage.
@ WG.
ReplyDeleteWell, the Leafs were playing Komisarek ahead of Franson, Gunnarsson and Aulie.
Must be nice to have 8 actual NHL defensemen at your disposal.
Franson just turned 24 and is +26 on his career.
ReplyDeleteSmid is a year older and is -42.
Franson played butter-soft opp in Nashville and has struggled in Toronto, as WG pointed out.
Smid was sent out to die from the age of 19 on, when even Joe Sixpack in the stands could see that Jan Hejda was the better option. From his sophomore year on, Smid was 3/6, 6/7, 3/6, 3/6, 1/7 (the last being this year) in Corsi Rel QC among D playing at least half the season. Rookie year, by the old QC metric? 2/5 among D with 40+ GP, though 4/7 if we move it back to 35+ GP (Tjarnqvist and Hejda played 37 and 39 games, respectively.)
Does it come as a surprise to you that a 24 year old defenseman would be sheltered?
The "context" here is his age.
Bullshit. See above.
@WG: I'm amazed that Gauthier signed Gorges for one year and pennies, and Markov to a Khabibulin-esque contract whose only saving grace is that Markov isn't 35 yet. Gorges could easily be the #2 guy on the open market after Suter, and fetch upwards of $5M.
I support getting more D, firing Renney, and dealing Bulin.
ReplyDeleteEventually the internet will be pay for view then it goes back to few watching(paying) for whatever.
ReplyDeleteFun watching these fanboy website pundits over the years, but the day I can't speak my mind, then it's time to pack up the kids and drive into the barn, with a loaded shotgun.
Lowetide: maybe you could publish a do's and don't list for the new website, lol.
Well, the Leafs were playing Komisarek ahead of Franson, Gunnarsson and Aulie.
ReplyDeleteHe should be playing ahead of Franson and Aulie.
TOR DMen TOI/gm this year:
Dion Phaneuf 25:11:00
John-M Liles 21:34:00
Carl Gunnarsson 21:10:00
Jake Gardiner 20:41:00
Mike Komisarek 16:59:00
Luke Schenn 16:34:00
Cody Franson 15:45:00
Keith Aulie 12:32:00
Big drop off after the top 4.
Also,
Georges numbers last year look fairly pedestrian in the 36 games he played before he had season ending ACL injury.
Al Gore tells me that Georges thinks his repaired knee is better than ever, and that his ACL bothered him a lot in the last 2-3 years before the surgery, even though he played almost every game in the two years before his surgery.
If, and it is a big if, Montreal is not in the playoffs and it does not appear that Gorges will resign there: do you as an Oiler GM trade some of your prospects for Gorges not for a playoff run but rather to sign him before he becomes a UFA.
ReplyDeleteIf I am his agenta 3 or 4 year contract signed here may lead to playing in WCF or SCF. Montreal....who knows
I support getting more D, firing Renney, and dealing Bulin.
ReplyDeleteMust be nice to have 8 actual NHL defensemen at your disposal.
Knighttown's post from a few years ago showing that your 10th Dman on the chart generally plays more minutes than anyone in the bottom 6 of your starting forwards was an eye opener.
D depth is beyond crucial.
Burke's in a great spot. Good job by him.
I don't expect him to let anyone go cheap, if he trades anyone at all.
If he trades anyone, I expect it will be Komisarek, who has a modified NTC, with a him supplying a list of teams he won't accept a trade to every June 15th. Not sure how deep the list is.
Komisarek is tradeable. If Kaberle's millstone can be traded, Komi surely can be, especially with his rebound this year.
If TOR makes the playoffs, they may surprise if they get past the 1st round if they can win the playoff war of attrition with their D depth.
"Renney is a terrible coach. Very questionable decision making (Barker over Petry, excessive usage of 4th liners, etc.) He should get the axe."
ReplyDeleteA couple of things:
1. How many personnel decisions are management and not coach? Old Timey sure talked about that plenty.
2. Depth. Quality notwithstanding, Depth on D is crucial and even tho' Petry was sent doen, you knew he was going to see plently of icetime this winter.
hunter: all the best.
ReplyDelete@ WG
ReplyDeleteYou know those numbers have been skewed during the 14 games Komisarek has been out with injury, right?
@ Doogie.
Bullshit. Franson has not "struggled in Toronto".
Unexpected strong play by Komisarek and Gardiner kept him in the press box to start the season but since Komisarek has gone down to injury, he's played very well...with 8 points +1 in 17GP.
Smid's near death experience has nothing to do with Franson's performance other than to indicate young defensemen do improve.
Here's a list of UFA Dmen who make over $1MM/yr +
ReplyDeleteBoychuck is UFA again. Wonder if Chiarelli gets him signed before July again.
Some interesting names here.
I've always liked Wideman too.
Lidstrom, Nicklas » $6,200,000.00
Rozsival, Michal » $5,000,000.00
Liles, John-Michael » $4,200,000.00
Wideman, Dennis » $3,937,500.00
Kubina, Pavel » $3,850,000.00
Spacek, Jaroslav » $3,833,333.00
Beauchemin, Francois » $3,800,000.00
Stuart, Brad » $3,750,000.00
Kuba, Filip » $3,700,000.00
Jackman, Barret » $3,625,000.00
Sarich, Cory » $3,600,000.00
Finger, Jeff » $3,500,000.00
Oduya, Johnny » $3,500,000.00
Suter, Ryan » $3,500,000.00
Mitchell, Willie » $3,500,000.00
Carle, Matt » $3,437,500.00
Allen, Bryan » $2,900,000.00
Salvador, Bryce » $2,900,000.00
Gleason, Tim » $2,750,000.00
Gorges, Josh » $2,500,000.00
Eaton, Mark » $2,500,000.00
Corvo, Joe » $2,250,000.00
Gill, Hal » $2,250,000.00
Martinek, Radek » $2,200,000.00
Sutton, Andy » $2,125,000.00
Colaiacovo, Carlo » $2,125,000.00
Morrisonn, Shaone » $2,075,000.00
Aucoin, Adrian » $2,000,000.00
Salo, Sami » $2,000,000.00
Zanon, Greg » $1,933,333.00
Boychuk, Johnny » $1,875,000.00
Foster, Kurtis » $1,800,000.00
Sauer, Kurt » $1,750,000.00
Campoli, Chris » $1,750,000.00
Souray, Sheldon » $1,650,000.00
Grossman, Nicklas » $1,625,000.00
Jurcina, Milan » $1,600,000.00
Staios, Steve » $1,600,000.00
Hunwick, Matt » $1,550,000.00
Clark, Brett » $1,500,000.00
Bouillon, Francis » $1,350,000.00
Jones, Randy » $1,150,000.00
O'Brien, Shane » $1,100,000.00
Lukowich, Brad » $1,000,000.00
Commodore, Mike » $1,000,000.00
Huskins, Kent » $1,000,000.00
Lundin, Mike » $1,000,000.00
Hannan, Scott » $1,000,000.00
Gilroy, Matt » $1,000,000.00
Vandermeer, Jim » $1,000,000.00
White, Colin » $1,000,000.00
@ WG
ReplyDeleteYou know those numbers have been skewed during the 14 games Komisarek has been out with injury, right?
No they're not.
Time On Ice Per Game.
They don't include games you haven't played.
Bullshit. Franson has not "struggled in Toronto".
ReplyDeleteUnexpected strong play by Komisarek and Gardiner kept him in the press box to start the season but since Komisarek has gone down to injury, he's played very well...with 8 points +1 in 17GP.
He struggled mightily early. He's turned it around the last little bit; good for him. My bad.
Smid's near death experience has nothing to do with Franson's performance other than to indicate young defensemen do improve.
Do you even read what you write sometimes? You're the one who made this Franson vs. Smid. WG and I are just reminding you that context matters, and a young D being sent out to die in all but one year, on a perpetual non-playoff team, is going to fare much worse in +/- than a young D given every opportunity to succeed on a perpetual playoff team. That should be self-evident, but...
Finger must be praying Cliff Fletcher gets a GM job in the next few months.
ReplyDeleteHe struggled mightily early. He's turned it around the last little bit; good for him. My bad.
ReplyDeleteSupplemental clarification: he's turned it around against the same butter-soft opp he faced in Nashville. So he's still only proven that he's a competent bottom-pairing defenceman at evens. Woo?
Surely Finger's wife, who presumably has seen him play, insisted that they splurge on no expensive toys and simply pay the taxes on their 4 year contract and bank a goodly sum of the post tax $$$.
ReplyDeleteFingers was not a bad 4 year signing if it had been 4 years at $3.5 m toytal i.e. $900K/season
Think Mrs Finger must have won out: I heard they live in a double wide in a trailer park in Etobicocke
ReplyDeleteYeah, Doogie I read what I write.
ReplyDeleteIf you were a little more perceptive you might be able to determine I used Smid as an example of how young defensemen struggle as opposed to your North Korean defense of Smid vs Franson.
Here's some "context" for you.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Leafs+Cody+Franson+making+most+opportunity/5864607/story.html
@ WG.
ReplyDeleteSo what your saying is no one got the minutes Komisarek isn't playing?
Right.
How does Tim Gleason score on these tests?
ReplyDeleteI think Traktor is somewhat accurate too. I remember praise for letting GX go.
ReplyDeleteThe math guys (I'm one) liked Nilsson too.
I'm sure there were some people who were questioning a big payday for Glencross.
ReplyDeleteSome of that is here:
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2008/04/roster-and-dollar-update.html
That's a mile from not liking the guy. Again, if there's evidence that someone posted a math related post saying Brodziak and Glencross weren't good players I'd love to read it.
Please link to it.
Curtis Glencross was a guy universally liked iirc, and Brodziak the same once he had that strong TC.
Well, of course Traktor's miles from reality. This isn't a new thing.
ReplyDeleteEvery math guy covering the Oilers loved Brodziak. If you flip through the comments of Bruce's post, you'll see what most of them had to say. I was going to find a bunch of posts on Brodziak, but then I found the most relevant quote ever in a Derek Zona piece:
"Pouliot and Brule bring none of the same elements that Brodziak did."
In fact, the only real criticism I could find came from Mark Spector, well known mathy blogger.
As for Curtis Glencross, that was the player who convinced me of the validity of Corsi. Some of the longer term guys - Vic Ferrari, for one - pointed out that Glencross had always been a strong Corsi player, but I firmly believed in goals-based analysis and so didn't buy it. Silly me, doubting Corsi.
ReplyDeleteSo what your saying is no one got the minutes Komisarek isn't playing?
Right.
You mean his 3rd pairing minutes?
Yeah, lots of guys to cover that off.
DSF logic:
Komisarek gets the 5th most TOI/gm, but others only pass him in TOI/gm when he gets hurt.
Sure.
DSF: So somewhere in your apples-to-meat-pies comparison, I'm supposed to extract that point? Let me see that again.
ReplyDeleteYou're a pretty tough marker.
Franson just turned 24 and is +26 on his career.
Smid is a year older and is -42.
I'm thinking Franson may have a little upside.
So you compare the +/- of a sheltered D on a playoff team to an unsheltered D on a non-playoff team, and remark that the former has upside. Not that the former has been used differently (unquestionable) or developed better (less obvious, but probably true to a point). Nor do you connect the dots on how that completely busted comparison demonstrates that Franson the potential to be a top-four D, which thus far he's proven incapable of.
Sounds to me like you're moving the goalposts because you realized your original point was either poorly-presented or poorly thought through.
Interesting links Mr Willis.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about Spector is that anyone who "passed up hits and lacked energy" better be scoring 30 goals per season.
The guy is a complete Jolt-Per-Minute junkie.
First time commenter so go easy on me. First off love the blog, thanks LT for facilitating it and to everyone commenting on here, makes following the oilers enjoyable even during the annual step into the elevator shaft we've seemingly become accustomed to.
ReplyDeleteAnyways I find myself overseas in Sweden this year and have been trying to keep my ears open for any Omark talk from amongst the Swedes. Latest is from a Luleå (Omarks former elite league team) hockey blog talking about Omarks possible return this winter. Its in Swedish and google translate butchers the translation a bit but basically says that up to now Omark hasn't even given the elite league thought but in the one newspaper this friday Omark said that if he did return to Luleå he would have to talk to the coaches about basically being able to play however he wants. He doesn't feel his style and the teams style of play line up.
Not sure if he had this attitude in Edmonton but perhaps could be part of the reason (amongst other reasons) why he was down in OKC. The article also goes on to dream about MPS making a return to Timrå since he was demoted so all the talk about Omark returning should probably be taken with a grain of salt but makes you wonder about if this is Omarks typical playing mentality or not.
anyways not sure what the rules are on posting external links on here but you can take a look at the article for yourself at http://www.kuriren.nu/bloggar/bloggare.aspx?blogg=4171576
It's unfortunate in a way that the owner of our team is a fan first and businessman second when it comes to the hockey side. Pretty doubtful he ever votes against his boyhood hero's and does what's really required.
ReplyDeleteYou cannot build a good hockey team exclusively via the draft. DUH!. Good players have to be brought in via trades and free agency to compliment your kids. Those players have to be brought in to play defined roles as well, not just obtained to say we have more depth. Those players aquired should also be of the younger variety in the 21 - 25 ages.
If we were to follow a Blackhawks recipe for winning there appears to be 3 key componets. Draft decently and particularly the later rounds, allow picks some seasoning time before rushing them into the bigs, and make trades to compliment those picks to flesh out your roster.
The Hawks began the journey to the 2009/2010 season and Stanley in 2002 and if we note just the key components of the top 9 F's and top 4 D:
Keith: drafted 2002 2nd round; played last year of junior and CCHA and 2 years in the A; first full NHL season 05/06
Seabrooke: drafted 2003; played last year of junior and second WJC; first full NHL season 05/06
Hjalmarsson: drafted 2005 4th round; played 2 years in Eur then split 2 years between the A and the bigs; first full NHL season 09/10
Campbell: signed as UFA in 08
Toews: drafted 2006 3rd overall; played one year in WCHA, a WJC and WC; first full NHL season 07/08
Kane: drafted 2007 first overall; only Hawk pick to make jump to NHL in first year of eligibility in 07/08
Sharp: obtained via trade with Philly during 05/06 season at 24 yrs
Hossa: signed as FA prior to 09 season at 30 yrs
Versteeg: obtained via trade with Boston during 2007 season at 21 yrs
Ladd: obtained via trade with Carolina during 2008 season at 22 yrs
Bolland: drafted 2004 in second round; finished final yr of junior, played full year in A, split seaon between A and NHL, first full NHL season 08/09
Byfuglien: drafted 2003 in 8th round; finished final year of junior, split 2 years between the A and NHL; first full NHL season 07/08
The only player I see in the current Oilers top9-top4 roster, drafted and allowed to enter the bigs at a proper age is Eberle. The only prime aged ones traded for, (or claimed on waivers in Jones case), with proper seasoning are Gilbert, Smid, and arguably due to age, Whitney and Potter.
I see the biggest issue as being TOP 9 F's. I don't think a top 4 D of healthy Gilbert/Smid/Whitney/Potter is too bad but where is the decent prime aged C with some experience? For that matter where are the W's outside of Eberle and Jones with the same credentials? One could argue Hemsky but theres some head issues there. Gagner? Soft, rushed, and not ready for Top 6 IMO.
Maybe the developmental program has improved under ST but there is a need for trades here that he's not particularly good at, OR, is Lowe Expectations sitting firmly implanted in the BOSS chair the major problem? I don't see future success here as long as Hemsky and Gagner are expected to contribute at a top 6 designation. Love Smyth and Horcoff's work ethic but both are being leaned on far too heavily right now. If either breaks down we are in serious, SERIOUS trouble. Not that we aren't right now of course.
Thedueyspin - thanks for the insight from Sweden. Interesting thoughts on Omark. Maybe he feels he's outgrown Lulea.
ReplyDeleteAny inside news on Klefbom?
With regards to Glencross, I seem to remember the debate going something like this:
ReplyDelete- GlenX was identified as a decent player, but he was at a high-water mark in terms of goals due to shooting percentage. People wanted the Oilers to be cautious with regards to how much the Oilers gave him based on this knowledge. This is fair.
- When the first rumors came out about what GlenX was asking for, the number floated by some was 1.8 million per year on a three year deal. People commented on this with hesitation towards going "there", since Glencross' resume was, at the time, limited. Once again, fair.
- Then, when it came out that Glencross signed with Calgary for 1.2 million a year, most people asked "if that was the price, why did the Oilers not do that?" and were frustrated a useful player slipped through the cracks while Katz and Lowe were chasing Hossa on July 1st & 2nd, 2008. For the third time, the opinions expressed were fair.
This whole "Glencross is good, the Math guys are stupid" stuff should be taken with a grain of salt.
Ohhh, I got a team in Lowe places,
ReplyDeleteDon't show up most nights like they're going places,
And make some hay,
But I'll be ok.
Yeahhh, I'm not big on showing patience,
When year after year, my team has this fragrance.
Ohhh I gotta team...in Loweee places
(sorry)
suorys: he's in Dallas
HBomb
ReplyDeleteThe only facts are we could use more players like Glencross and he isn't here. We lost him for F all.
Maybe some were too busy doing the Tambo analysis thing?? Or does it simply reek of ST/Lowe Expectations being too busy steering the Pequod?
cm,
ReplyDeleteTwo things were said publically after GlenX signed with CAL that drover everyone crazy.
1) GlenX stated in an interview that he wanted to stay with Edmonton. After his agent gave them their asking price (widely assumed to be 3 x 1.8), the Oilers never called back.
GlenX said he called Lowe himself and his call was nevered returned.
2). Lowe was asked about the above and he responded that "they were busy trying to sign Hossa". Like the org can't walk and chew gum at the same time.
To be fair, if they sign Hossa for the 9 x 9MM that they offered, they need to shed salary, not add 1.8ish for a guy who only had 50ish games on the 4th line.
They org went Whale hunting and when some salmon tried to jump in the boat, they just threw it back.
They org went Whale hunting and when some salmon tried to jump in the boat, they just threw it back
ReplyDeleteAnd yet many posts on the interwebs suggest the Oilers chase Weber.
Even though you are a bunch of impatient cranks I enjoy hanging out with you. Merry Christmas.
@ Doogie.
ReplyDeleteIt seems you have trouble connecting dots yourself.
Next time I'll speak more slowly.
As I've mentioned in a couple of earlier posts, the common denominator in the Chicago model and the Florida model is Dale Tallon.
ReplyDeleteHe's taken a team that finished last in the EC last season with a goal differential of -34, blew up the team in the off season, stocked his cupboard with the best prospect depth in the game, jettisoned excess baggage, filled all the holes on his team and has them 1 point out of first place in the EC.
That's a rebuild.
This 5-6 year stuff is just ridiculous in a cap world.
DSF: Please do, O Wise One.
ReplyDeleteKatz expects Weber or Suter to literaly fall into his lap and it will all be about money.
ReplyDelete@ Lowetide: thanks lol
The Florida rebuild is far from complete, and playing in the SE division has helped the cause immensely.
ReplyDeletelong time reader, and all i want to see this year out of this hockey club is effort. These kids will continue to develop if the effort is there.Smyth is a perfect role model for these kids as he works for everything he gets and is loved. So what I am getting at is Hemsky. He has skill to burn but on this team right now we need are vets to be role models and the way that guy skates off for a line change, is not good. We have seen some skill but we need more. I am hoping in a "PUMP n Dump" with hemmer like never before. Effort is contagious and fans can tell.
ReplyDeleteI hate to diss on Hemsky on the day that Vaclav Havel has passed, so out of respect for the man that started the velvet revolution, I'll pass for now.
ReplyDeleteRIP Vaclav Havel
I have always been a big Hemsky supporter but I have never seen him play as poorly as he has the last couple of weeks. He is a giveaway machine and the play is almost guaranteed to die on his stick every time. I don't know if he is hurt but if not, he is showing that he could care less whether he is here in edmonton past the trade deadline.
ReplyDelete