Winter 2011: #17
Summer 2011: NR
Redline: Stay at home defencemen with savvy and size. Son of former longtime NHL'er Craig Simpson has very good hockey sense and understands game situations instinctively. Had trouble getting qualilty icetime as a 17-year-old true freshman on deep, veteran defence corps of top collegiate program, but did show steady progress adjusting to the pace of play against older, stronger opponents. Rarely saw the ice on either special teams units. Sluggish skater with a short stride, but shows good gap control and lateral mobility. Tentative to do anything offensively and always has one foot back on defence. Doesn't see the ice well and hurries to get the puck off his stick. Makes sharp defensive reads and is rarely out of position. Struggled 1-on-1 in the corners and down log against more physically developed forwards.
More Redline: "He's a smart player defensively, rarely out of position; but he's a pretty bad skater and he doesn't have any poise moving the puck. He's a slushy skater with a short and sluggish stride. His hands are stiff, he struggles to put passes on the tape and he always hurries to get the puck off of his stick. He's getting the ice time right now because of North Dakota's injuries."
ISS: Simpson is an all-around effective and smart defenseman who contributes in both ends of the ice while competing at a high level. He shows flashes of offensive productivity and potential. He has very good stride and at times when he is moving he almost looks like he isn’t working that hard, but with closer scrutiny, you realize he is actually a very effortless skater, with a very natural and efficient stride. He has very good range defensively, taking away time and space very efficiently. He always seems to maintain solid defensive positioning. Father Craig played 10 years in the NHL with Pittsburgh, Edmonton and Buffalo, and won two Stanley Cups with the Oilers.
Simpson has tremendous pedigree but his scouting reports were conflicting. Redline said he was a stay-at-home type and a "slushy" skater but ISS was more positive toward the player. Part of it may have been that Simpson was among the youngest NCAA players a year ago (17 when he started) and elevated his schooling as to be ready for UND last fall.
I suspect that's an unusal item for a hockey player.
For me, the best report came from Kirk Luedeke of Bruins Draft Watch, who often seemed to put everything together during his two year run with BDW.
Luedeke: A bit of a disappointing season for a player scouts had some real high hopes for coming in. The son of former NHL forward and HNIC analyst Craig Simpson (and nephew of television reporter Christine Simpson) has decent size at 6-1, 195. He scored 2 goals and 10 points in 30 games as a freshman and wasn't overly involved in the offensive scheme/didn't get a lot of ice time. He's a work in progress who has some soft hands and hockey sense, but isn't a great skater. He's slow out of the blocks and needs to work on his stride to get the most out of his movement. Scouts see intriguing elements of his game, but after 12 goals and 41 points last year with Spruce Grove of the AJHL, more of an impact was expected from him- he did not deliver. This is not to say Simpson isn't a legitimate NHL prospect- he is. He grew up around the game and has the natural athleticism to be a player, but this season showed that it is going to take time and he'd require a leap of faith for a team to draft him in the first two rounds.
- Age 17: 27, 2-8-10 +11
- Age 18: 16, 0-7-7 +3
Simpson was 1-2-3 on the PP a year ago and is already 0-6-6 this season with the man advantage. Simpson has 17 blocked shots according to the UND site so far this season. but there is no blocked shot data available from a year ago.
In slotting Simpson at #17, I had to feel he had more upside than the remaining forwards under consideration (Martindale, Vande Velde, Rajala, Cornet, House, Tremblay) and was clear of what remains a pretty nice group of defensemen (Plante, Bigos, injured Fedun) plus the goalie.
Simpson wins the day based on age--he's playing in a league that featured men 7 years his senior one year ago--his pedigree and improvement year over year. His increased involvement on the PP for instance is another gear that would not have been evident in scouting him a year ago.
Either way, Dillon Simpson makes the list. If I had to guess about his future, I'd suggest his arrows are pointing in a good direction.
The thing that scares me about some of our defence picks is how slow they are.I havent seen much of Simpson but scouts comment on his poor skating.Musil in the times i have seen him is Sutton slow.The same is heard about Marcinin and unless their mobility improves dramatically i cant see NHL careers.
ReplyDeleteGernat for a big guy has some speed and agility so i have hopes for him
How can we reconcile the claim that he is a 'sluggish' skater with the next report that say he is an 'effortless' skater? Is it that some slugs can appear effortless as they get nowhere fast?
ReplyDeleteI must admit that I think Bigos has a better shot at an NHL job than Simpson. It is possible that Simpson can improve his skating and become at least slightly more comfortable handling the puck. But even if he does that, I'm not seeing a real NHL skillset there.
In contrast, despite his flaws, I think that Bigos brings some elements (size, nasty) that make him a little unique and will ensure he gets a long look. Of course, this is my rather worthless opinion.
Umm... Cornet has 22 goals and 40+ PTs in his first 80 games in pro league and is below Simpson and a 7th rd Fin goalie on the list LT? I know you have declared Cornet as a tweener and don't give him a great shot at the NHL but don't his numbers in OKC put him somewhere on this list? Maybe you reluctantly squeeze him in at 20 just behind a bigos longshot?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't declare myself a huge Cornet booster and know his current numbers are as unsustainable as NK start to this season but LT.... Give the guy a little love! He has to be doing something right doesn't he?
I don't know but if he plays like a little prick might he have a chance to make the show somewhere?? Burrows-esque?
After A quick review of 'the list' is it fair to think the Oilers should be taking another forward in the 1st rd this year LT. There is a surprising lack of forward depth on the list. BPA aside... Maybe the injured Russian slides this year? After Pitlick and Hamilton the cupboard appears bare.
ReplyDeleteOutside of the phenom that is Cornet that is... ;)
I can't see Simpson ahead of Plante or Bigos.
ReplyDeletePlante has 11 pts and is +13 in 24 games this season in the AHL. He is likely playing the toughs.
Bigos is a 6'5" 235 lb monster. He is at .5 pts / game.
LT has already indicated he gives zero points for being closer to the NHL.
ReplyDeletePlante is 22 and playing 3rd pairing in the AHL. Simpson is 18 and top pairing in the NCAA. Apples to apples.
@Matt N.: Plante is third pairing now? What are you basing that on?
ReplyDeleteHe leads the Barons in plus (+13), PiM (61) and defence scoring (1-9-10). If he's doing that on 15 minutes a night that's pretty impressive!
I don't understand the rankings either, the criteria make no sense to me. Seems to me that the younger you are and the less we know about you, the higher you will rank because we can call that ignorance on our parts upside?
ReplyDeleteAnd yet Petry climbed the rankings as he aged despite a ceiling being put in by his performances?
I, as well, dont understand the sharp drop-off wrt 'established' prospects cornet, plante, etc..
ReplyDeleteI recognize that people have begun to sour on plante, based on foot speed, but this is more drop off than I expected.. simpson seemed like a reach pick at the time (for sentimental reasons) and nothing written in those scouting reports has warmed me up to him as a prospect..
Seems like the all-heralded 'potential' is more an indication of being 'unknown' rather than having 'more to give'.. with that said, thanks for doing this series LT.. no one else does it better for the oilers and I appreciate the effort..
Plante is 22 and playing 3rd pairing in the AHL. Simpson is 18 and top pairing in the NCAA. Apples to apples.
ReplyDeleteWhere do you get the information that Simpson is playing in the top pairing? And is he carrying the mail? Derek Forbert would appear to be ahead of him given pedigree, I'd think. And there is a senior defenceman there who would no doubt get important minutes.
I think Plante is more likely to get 200 games in the NHL given his size, shot and toughness, so I'd rank him higher.
I think Plante is more likely to get 200 games in the NHL given his size, shot and toughness, so I'd rank him higher.
ReplyDeleteI would wager that Plante won't see another 50 games in the NHL.
He just can't keep up.
Seems to me that the younger you are and the less we know about you, the higher you will rank because we can call that ignorance on our parts upside?
I think that a lot of this is true.
We know that Plante won't be an everyday NHLer. The Oilers have had the worst Dcorps in the NHL for the last few years and he was never close to sticking.
He may be a good AHL Dman for a long time, but he doesn't have the speed to play in the NHL.
Simpson on the other hand, may improve, so you can rank him higher.
The longer the resume, the closer you can more accurately predict their NHL potential.
I would wager that Plante won't see another 50 games in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteHe just can't keep up.
I don't see his speed as an issue. He decision making has been the issue and that should improve with experience. He only has 2.5 years of professional hockey under his belt.
I don't see his speed as an issue. He decision making has been the issue and that should improve with experience. He only has 2.5 years of professional hockey under his belt.
ReplyDeleteI see speed as his biggest issue.
Sutton looks like Cogliano next to him.
Slower Dman can play in the NHL if a lot of other tools are there, especially the brain, but to date I haven't seen it and he'll never have a softer Dcorps to crack than the Oilers of the last 2 years.
You're right that 22 years old (23 in May) may be too early to write him off, but he has needed to show more.
He's been passed by Tuebert and there is a pile of kids coming that will need AHL minutes next year.
I'm guessing the Oilers won't qualify him after this year.
He's been passed by Tuebert and there is a pile of kids coming that will need AHL minutes next year.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing a forward-thinking GM won't qualify him after this year.
There. Fixed it for you. =-D
I won't beleive this org will flush a first round pic that goes bad until I see it. There's been way to much emphasis on pedigree up until now, and until I see something that actually says "We don't care where' you're drafted (or if you are drafted), if you're the better player, you're in", then I will continue to bet that this organization gives at bats to first rounders until they dump them for peanuts.
End Rant.
I won't beleive this org will flush a first round pic that goes bad until I see it
ReplyDeleteHA!
I was going to finish my post off with:
"but Plante will get picked up by someone because former first rounders get far more kicks at the cat than their resume's usually warrant"
Oilers are particularly bad for that.
Looks like Alzner was carrying the mail on that pairing in Red Deer in their draft year.
Calgary, not Red Deer..
ReplyDeleteAs per Tom Gazzola twitter (Oilers PR flak):
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall skating on a line with Hemsky and Horcoff this morning.
Yay!
That line was looking ridiculous the few games they had before Hall hurt his wing.
4-10-83 can outscore toughs.
4 is starting to dish the puck after drawing 2-3 defenders in the Ozone, and 83 is very dangerous with room.
Corbin,
ReplyDeleteOops, thanks!
WG - you make an interesting point re: Alzner and Plante. Attempting to translate that thought to the Oil Kings I shall ask those more informed than I - is Gernat making Reinhart look good or perhaps (and maybe more likely) is Reinhart allowing Gernat to play a more free wheeling style and as a result post inflated numbers? Anyone?
ReplyDelete4 is starting to dish the puck after drawing 2-3 defenders in the Ozone, and 83 is very dangerous with room.
ReplyDeleteWG - I am afraid that you are missing the new narrative. 83 is washed up, injured, injury prone, indecisive, not an NHLer, moody, insolent, sulking, untradable, a round (or is it square) peg, puck hogish, disappointing, jealous, failure of an NHL player. We will be lucky to score a 14th round pick for him. Keep up buddy, the Oilogospehere is passing you by.
In the one Oil Kings game I watched this season I thought Gernat was a lot more noticeable than Reinhart, though he does have a more "noticeable" game. Gernat looked great at what he does; I think no matter who his d-partner is he won't be able to roam like that in the big leagues, will he still be able to produce?
ReplyDelete@book!e Yeah, you'd think they'd just take the obvious path and pay someone to shoot him. That's what any competent GM who watches the games would do.
Right now is the perfect time for Rexall to kick start its "Free Meds For Oiler Fans!" program.
ReplyDeleteRight now is the perfect time for Rexall to kick start its "Free Meds For Oiler Fans!" program.
ReplyDeleteBetter known as Fan Appreciation Night
conif - an indecisive evergreen
Yeah, I hate Hemsky for kicking all those puppies on the way to cheat with his teammates wives.
ReplyDeleteI hear he's a communist.
ReplyDeleteBookie,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm hearing that narrative.
I'm still the type who likes players who move the puck the right way regardless of what HNIC commentators say.
Hemsky still leads the Oilers with a +5.53 Corsi and 2nd behind Hall with a 12.0 Corsi (among forwards)
He's doing all this with top 3 QualComp and CorsiQualComp.
Holland and others are salivating at the thought of fleecing v3.2 for Hemsky.
God I hope he re-signs.
That should read +12 RelCorsi for Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteBendelson said... After A quick review of 'the list' is it fair to think the Oilers should be taking another forward in the 1st rd this year
ReplyDeleteBPA issue aside, I think the thing to remember here is that defensemen tend to be harder to project, and can so easily be irrevocably damaged before they ever see NHL ice (or shortly after. Or any time, now that I think of it). Considering how young so many of the forwards are, I think it would still be wise to be looking primarily to D-men with the first round pick next year. Plus, I don't know that I really see a top-pairing defenseman making his way to us from the AHL in the next few years.
That said, given development time and when the Oilers expect to legitimately compete, that top-pairing man is almost guaranteed to be coming via free-agency or a trade.
Ales Hemsky is a sonuvabitch. I once saw him scissor kick Angela Landsbury; he framed Roger Rabbit; I have a friend in the Oiler office who swear he date raped David Bowie.
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky is a bad, bad man.
ReplyDeleteYoung Simpson's mother is quite hot.
ReplyDeleteSaw her at the draft and dear jesus I imagine what she was at 19.
also, I hate how most Oilers D are stamped with a poor skating missive.
Finally, I like the Oilers new top nine. I suggested it a few days ago because it makes sense on a few levels.
You have to worry about how beat up Khabby might be, though, and also that DD hasn't done anything close to putting on a good streak thus far and our PK has been in the toilet for weeks now.
No down-ice pressure and little success at clearings means constant peril is afoot.
I'm dying for a game-day thread, even after the really bad trip down Carolina lane.
ReplyDeleteHere's a bit of snarky take on Freakonomics. Success has a thousand fathers, and 2000 bitter mistresses.
Freakonomics: What Went Wrong?
What’s more, having a major-league player as a father makes a boy “eight hundred times more likely to play in the majors than a random boy,” they write. If these factors are such crucial determinants of future stardom, what does this say about their theory that a star is made, not born?