Winter 2011: #11
Summer 2011: #15
AHL coach Mark Morris: "Like most guys who enter the American Hockey League, the biggest challenge is making the reads. He is a strong skater, so if he makes a poor read he has the ability to eat up ground and shut people down. What I like about him is that he seems to get a piece of somebody every time he is on the ice, and he is a hard guy to play against. At times when he handles the puck, he might not make the best choice, but he keeps the game fairly simple. He is an old school defenceman in my books; the type of guy that everybody will appreciate over the course of time.He's not going to wow you in the beginning, but I think over time he will prove that he is a force to be reckoned with and he can be a reliable, dependable defender." NHL Director of Central Scouting EJ McGuire: "Colten is a smooth skating defenseman, who can skate the puck out of trouble and can jump up the ice with the puck. I like Colten for a lot of reasons, but most of all for his ability to take charge of the game. He projects as a support three or four defenseman, at least initially in the NHL, with a good offensive upside who won't hurt you on defense."
"He's big, strong, mean ... and he just continues to get better."
Regina Pats Head Coach Curtis Hunt:
Regina Pats Head Coach Curtis Hunt:
Colten Teubert on himself: I consider myself a punishing defenseman. I'm the guy that you put out against your top players and tell me to shut them down. I think I have a great shot from the point and get it through.
The Hockey News: Teubert is a classic defensive defenseman who excels in the shutdown aspect of the game and plays with a pretty wide mean streak. “He’s not as polished as [Luke] Schenn, but he’s meaner than Schenn,” one scout said. “He’s a nasty guy to play against.” One scout said Teubert might tumble on draft day because he can be a little erratic and compared him to Bryan Marchment. Another scout wonders what all the fuss is about with Teubert. “I think he’s a little overrated,” the scout said. “He has pretty average hockey sense. He has good size and mobility and he competes, but I think his hockey sense keeps him from being a top pick.”
Morey Gare after his trade to Edmonton: "We like a lot of things about his game that we're kind of lacking with our organization. He has good size and strength, good mobility, we like his physical game and his toughness. Most importantly, his willingness to be involved physically in the game and to be hard to play against. We see him as more of a defensive defenceman who will be able to contribute some offence. He moves the puck well, too. We're really drawn to the whole package."
I believe Morey Gare's report on him is the one to adopt as a reasonable line in the sand. I think Teubert was hired because Alex Plante's mobility made him a question mark for the highest levels. Teubert is a better prospect because he combines size and speed, along with that mean streak. If they can coach him up on the coverage aspect--and he certainly looked capable as an Oiler earlier this season--then the Oilers have a legit NHL defenseman who can play a role.
I like Teubert as a prospect, believe he's going to have a career and cover the 250 game bet required to be considered (on the blog) a successful draft pick. I don't believe he's a better prospect than the defenders listed above and will explain my opinion below.
I've been dancing around this over the last few posts, and now that we're at Colten Teubert it's time to be very specific. I think Colten Teubert's outer marker is Jason Smith. Now, that's a fine, fine hockey player. Wish we had three of them, honestly. In 05-06, Jason Smith played 15:09 at evens, 4:13 at SH and 15 seconds a game on the PP. I think that's what we might see in Teubert's best seasons. I think David Musil's potential is similar.
The reason I ranked Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and Martin Gernat above them is because they have a "wider" range of skills as prospects. We don't know the future, but if these kids reach their outer marker, they may have stats similar to Jaro Spacek that season (15:26, 3:24, 4:48 by discipline).
My rankings give zero reward for being close to the NHL. None. The wider the range of skills, the higher the ranking. It's very likely one of the three will fall down the list, not able to sustain the offense and exposing their weaknesses defensively. However, as we sit Colten Teubert's rank is 11th, and honestly if this was three weeks from now Dillon Simpson might jump ahead of him. This list is about potential.


I could have sworn skating and shooting were considered to be skills.
ReplyDelete;op
And closeness to the NHL lessens the variance in the possible outcomes, which is something.
I hope Tuebert eats Peckham's lunch. Theo hasn't done much to solidify his status as a bona fide NHLer.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there's ever been a time where I've thought 33 was a strong skater.
ReplyDeleteAs much as I ragged on 5 early and later on:) at least I could see he was a smooth skater but a decent first-pass so those were skills that if combined with common sense could make him someone potentially worth investing in as a fan.
33 looks like a third pairing at best; like greene is in LA though the two kids plus scuderi-mitchell are decidedly top four.
if 33 can be a great PKer than that's something else to believe in, I guess. right now I see him topping out as a third pairing guy who's partner would need to be a veteran Petry type who always moves the puck for him.
spOILer: Skating is a big part of his game no doubt. As for shooting, well he could leap the others and get PP time.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I don't know that it's reasonable to give him a lot of credit for it when we know the competition for PP minutes in the NHL will be incredible.
And In all fairness, if Sutton keeps tryin to take people's heads off, then Teubert will keep getting time up here (as an aside, how many will Sutton be gone for now? 10? 12?) and keep improving his game. Maybe the lack of sense will keep his level of play from elevating too much, but OTOH if the Oil have Jason Smith's illegitimate son here, then there is reason to rejoice.
ReplyDeleteI recall that WG was bitter about what LA was hording deeper in the pantry, but I have trouble seeing Tuebs as less than we deserved: Penner minus magic onion equals heartburn.
ReplyDeleteBruce scored Renney a demontorial "1" during his post-debacle fumigation. I realize it was a bit of placeholder for kicking the dog, but I also thought it was a mite excessive, hearkening back to the traditional witch-hunts in this impatient burg that change faces but not outcomes.
Yesterday I immersed myself in Stanford Entrepreneurship videos (valley motto: We fail best!) I'm pitching the revival of a seven digit mothball to fresh, stern pockets. A fifty-pound forehead who portrays the future as complex slogging soon loses his audience, so I'm buffing up on reward-centric language. To enter the mood I could just as easily rewatch all the old Bewitched episodes featuring advertising partner Larry Tate, if I had them to hand. (Bruce, beware of summoning Endora when you bitchslap the coach.)
There was the usual piffle, but there was also one lecture I quite enjoyed: Geoffrey Moore on Reach Your Escape Velocity. He stakes out a vocabulary of corporate power as distinct from performance, and talks about the woes of becoming excessively performance-centric. Good stuff. He missed a glorious opportunity to cite "Sony" in response to an audience question about whether excessive pursuit of power can end as badly as excessive pursuit of performance. For cripes sake, the PS3 was assembled from the seven DRM horcruxes of Voldemort Productions. How could he miss that?
From the guy who wrote The No Asshole Rule I found portions of What Great Leaders Do engaging. He talks about the attribution bias, without naming it as such (that I noticed while shredding a cabbage to maintain a sense of personal accomplishment during the ordeal).
He says that as a leader, you enter into a world where you get too much credit and too much blame, and it's something you have to expect and cope with. Quantitatively, a leader is responsible for about 15% of group performance, yet receives 50% of the credit or blame.
I don't think it's that much different in hockey. If Horc and Smitty and Hemmer decide to lay an egg, the coach ends up covered in treadmarks no matter what he tries to do.
One or two other talks caused me to wake up with a new entry in Dilbert's Dictionary.
Profit: What's left of your success once you forget how you got there.
Engineers never forget. We don't share in the glitter of forgetting how you got there. As if I needed a further beating, I ended my day dipping into Jim Collins' ode to Fannie Mae.
From Great to Great Splat
Sometimes there are good reasons to become absent minded.
One guy I disliked said that success and failure are good, mediocrity is the real trap. At this point, even if we opened the trap door on Fail for Nail, under the strictures of the CBA our near-term would devolve into an RFA yard sale.
Even Stanford knows there's a finite supply of good failure. Enough failure already.
Bruce was dead on for his mark on Renney. This one is on the coach, and in any other town, if a team was as consistently under-prepared as the Oil have been the last year and a half, the coach would be out of the door on his ear. But, loyalty runs deep in this org. Hurrah!
ReplyDeleteHe missed a glorious opportunity to cite "Sony" in response to an audience question about whether excessive pursuit of power can end as badly as excessive pursuit of performance. For cripes sake, the PS3 was assembled from the seven DRM horcruxes of Voldemort Productions. How could he miss that?
ReplyDeleteNot to mention as an example of irresponsibly wielding said power (see: The Great PSN Hack of 2011).
From Jim Matheson:
ReplyDeleteInjured Omark may stay in Sweden
A report in a Swedish paper says Oilers farmhand Linus Omark, who will get the cast off his broken foot Dec. 29, has talked to management from his former Swedish Lulea club team. He’s been in Sweden recuperating and will be going back to Edmonton’s American Hockey League team at Oklahoma City next week.
Omark has said he doesn’t want to spend the whole season in the AHL. He would rather go back to Europe and he has an out in his contract to do just that. Swedish Elite League teams can add players up until Jan. 31.
Once Linus is recovered and gets up to speed, I'd like to see brothers O'Marra and O'Mark brought up and Lander and Petrell get sent down.
I like Teubert. I belive he is in year two of his ELC so he can spend all of next year in OKL. This is another advantage over Plante who is in year three and will need to clear waivers next year.
Anyone else notice the rumble starting among the rank and file fans to trade Hemsky? I expect we are about a month from when he starts hearing the boo birds.
The AHL is nuts. Barons are playing right now.
ReplyDeleteTeubert doesn't look all that speedy to me either. He is certainly faster than Plante, though.
Coach has lost the room - we need someone like Pat Quinn who has the experience to be able to fire up this team!
ReplyDeleteIf Omark were to go back to Sweden, how long would he remain Oilers property? If the Oilers offered him a contract as a RFA this summer, but Omark refused, would the Oilers own his rights in perpetuity?
ReplyDeleteWord verification: repwo
What agents of any player not selected by MBS feel
The team is tired. Horcoff and Smith are tired, worn out. They got carried away on how good things were going and now they're tired. The kids don't have the stamina yet and they're tired. If you come back deep then there's 200feet ahead of you going the other way.
ReplyDeleteOnce upon a time I met Mironov in Winnipeg. A great time, lots of vodka, good times What I came away with was his statement about the NHL. "You can't go all out all the time, you'll die. Is not Soviet Union, forty games and practice."
They have to learn to pace themselves. It's no use hammering everybody in sight about meeting expectations.
They're trying but they're exhausted.
They're trying but they're exhausted.
ReplyDeleteI think they just aren't that good of a team, and the percentages are catching up to them. Even when they were winning the Oilers were getting routinely out shot.
Now the save percentage, and special teams percentage are coming back down to earth and they don't have an answer.
Hopefully a healthy Hall and Potter can stop the bleeding a little.
I want to see this team have a hope of playoffs in feb and march. I can't stand to watch another death march for the last 4 months of the season.
Well, if they are exhausted, we have good news. With all the injuries, we are resting guys ... 2-4 weeks at a time. Or in Sutton's case 5-8 games at a time ...
ReplyDeleteWe should be fresh for a second half push.
Or in Sutton's case 5-8 games at a time ...
ReplyDeleteMultiple repeat offender, min 10 games. Book it.
Bookie, I know what you are trying to do, but still, Renney hasn't lost the room, he's lost the game. Several times in this skid. Poor line matching, bad preparation and overplaying NK and building rust on DD are just part of the indictments of his game mgt to this point in the season.
If you go to Behind the Net and look at both Rel and absolute Corsi versus PDO you will see that the Oilers have a luck problem. The absolute and relative Corsi leaders on our team are either hurt or have poor PDO (bad luck) or both (or in one case don't see the ice much). If you go to zone start finish and look for the differential you will see that many of the people who can push the puck in the right direction are also playing in bad luck (poor PDO). Basically our best players are unlucky and the luckiest guys are being out played which reduces the "value" of their luck.
ReplyDeleteIf that continues with a reversion to the mean in shooting % and save % we could be looking at a serious problem. On the plus side of the equation neither Corey Potter or Taylor Hall were getting by on luck before they got hurt and they were staggeringly outplaying both their opposition and their team mates. If Potter wasn't a mirage and Hall can pick up were he left off they will make a huge difference in game outcomes.
At a coaching level Renney needs to finally find out if MPS can defend against the best in the league the way he does the dregs.
This was all so predictable and stems from the overreaction to the hot start to the season. This caused them to overvalue of team play and the benefits of playing sound system hockey.
ReplyDeleteThe result is that they have systematically replaced more skillful players with less skillful players and have actively made the team worse. Moreover because the fourth line is so useless they have leaned too heavily on Horcoff and Smyth which has made them worse. It is a disaster all the way around.
Belanger should have been the fourth line center. Lander and Petrell should have been in the AHL. Omark, Gagner, and Paajarvi should have been given offensive opportunities.
Instead, Omark is gone forever, Paajarvi is lost in the weeds, and Gagner's recovered game will last only as long as Hall's injury.
The sooner this team realizes that you need offensive players three lines deep and shunts the likes of Ryan Jones and Belanger to play an effective fourth line the better. It is the only way this team will ever make the playoffs.
I imagine Matheson had access to the same reports as everyone else so where did he get the idea that 23 might not want to stay in OKC a bit longer?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't matter, I guess. Renney can't really be bothered to give 91 a real shot so certainly wouldn't have much time for 23.
DD "rust" has been cited on a few occasions, but it sounds like willful optimism to me. We still have a very small sample of DD in the big leagues. He was sheltered last year, and rode some good luck on a bad team. We may have to start admitting that he might not be as good as we're all hoping he was going to be. Several goals last night again on unscreened shots that he had plenty of time to set up for and was seemingly in good position. Big league goaltenders make those stops almost 100% of the time. His reflexes are poor, but he usually makes up for it with his size and good positioning.
ReplyDeleteGranted the string of bad play by DD is an even smaller sample, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that he might be just kind of mediocre instead of the second coming of Grant Fuhr that we're all hoping he might be.
Many goalies do very well in games after having several off. Part of being a pro goalie is being ready to play anytime. I don't buy the rust theory, but I could be convinced of a little bit of bad luck.
Expecting NK and/or DD to keep us in that game last night is laughable. How many point blank opportunities does one have to stop?
ReplyDeleteThe current play in goal is a product of garbage team defence and won't turn around until the team decides to show up in front of them.
We don't have all world goaltending - no kidding but the team is currently hanging them out to dry.
And Renney getting outcoached consistently as of late (match-ups at home have been 'odd' choices in my estimation) isn't helping at all. Keep going to that old familiar well and when it runs dry - big #%@"!! surprise.
ReplyDeleteHasn't been mentioned anywhere else but how about three games in a row where DD uses the pokecheck? It hasn't worked either time and it's reminding me of 89 using the same move - to constant failure - in the SO.
ReplyDeleteDevan Dubnyk posted a pro career high save percentage last year(excluding ECHL).
ReplyDeleteHis previous high was .915 in the AHl the season prior.
Many people expected him to keep on trucking this season, We probably should have been questioning the ability of goaltenders to maintain career numbers from season to season. I suspect it isn't a high percentage of goalies that do it.
If you are disappointed with the Oilers perhaps your expectations are too high.
ReplyDeleteThis team has made massive improvements from last year in GA and +/- but thats just enough to bring them them into the realm of being barely competitive.
This is not a playoff team and never was.
Dennis - my recollection is one poorly conceived and ill timed poke check and one excellent textbook poke check followed by bad luck/no help whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteI only agreed with the pokecheck vs CBJ because he was caught in-between.
ReplyDeleteI didn't like the one in Col and thought last night's was stupid altogether.
Indefinite suspension for Sutton
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't sound good at all.
I like the guy and even though he's slow he's pretty clever with the puck-but he doesn't help
at all from the pressbox.
I think we'll be seeing more of young Teubert.
Omark, Gagner, and Paajarvi should have been given offensive opportunities.
ReplyDeleteThat's the recipe for sure. Not the best examples of "offensive" talents unless one means the "other" definition. The OPG, or 0 P/G line.
Tough line to play against. 2 poodles and a schnauzer ought to cover the bet.
I was a 25 fan but the penalties were starting to get a bit out of hand. I imagine 44's back for next Thurs in Phx - that's pretty close to the timeline - so just two games of the 24-33 pairing to endure.
ReplyDeleteBruce scored Renney a demontorial "1" during his post-debacle fumigation. I realize it was a bit of placeholder for kicking the dog, but I also thought it was a mite excessive, hearkening back to the traditional witch-hunts in this impatient burg that change faces but not outcomes.
ReplyDeleteNah, I don't want Renney gone, that was just a reflection of how completely his team sucked last night. Against the worst** team in the league. After three days of preparation.
Goddam right the coach is gonna get blasted. He wasn't the only one, but as TR himself acknowledged, it starts with him.
I'm baffled by the notion that Teubert has good skating. And I usually defend the guy.
ReplyDeleteWell the scouting reports mention it, so at some point he must have been a strong skater. We know that sometimes (Barker) skating issues become more pronounced over time, but his draft day resume suggested strong skater.
ReplyDelete