Wednesday, November 16, 2011

His Bite Is Worse than His Barker

When Steve Tambellini signed Cam Barker this summer, we knew what the Oilers were getting based on resume. His recent injury then should be considered a stroke of good luck?


In the July 2nd post I linked to above, this was the main issue:
  • Did he ever--at any time--play tough minutes in the NHL? No. He didn't in Minnesota and in Chicago they always had a better option. Whatever Barker's value--real or imagined, it doesn't appear in the secondary disciplines (that I can find).
So it set up an interesting situation for Oiler fans. Would coach Tom Renney use Barker as a 5-6D option against the NHL's competition, or would he run him like a high profile $2.25M free agent?

According to Gabe Desjardins behind the net, Barker ranks 8 out of the 9 Oiler defensemen in terms of Qual Comp. Now, these things can sway here and there, but it does establish that coach Renney did not consider Barker a better option than Whitney, Gilbert or Smid. Or Potter. And Petry too when he was recalled.

Jonathan Willis puts it another way in his recent post.
  • Cam Barker’s been spotted lots of offensive zone minutes, mostly against lousy opposition, and he’s been hammered. Given that he missed the last two lopsided losses to Detroit and Chicago, his numbers could be even worse. It’s difficult to see his loss to injury as anything other than an opportunity for the superior Jeff Petry to get more minutes.
I think Oiler fans should rightly feel that this injury is a net gain on the blue. Petry here for more of the season, along with Whitney coming back (hopefully he'll play long enough for us to get used to) should bode well for the team.

Cam Barker is looking at another pay cut next summer, and playing time is going to be an issue. Probably by the time he's healthy again, as Petry is a good young player finding his way.

40 comments:

  1. Barker is what his track record indicates.

    An ineffective 3rd pairing Dman, probably below replacement level results.

    Its a never ending source of wonderment that they Oilers (and other NHL teams) look at draft pedigree before NHL performance when considering players.

    Its like asking a 23 year old applying for a job about his high school scores, but completely ignoring what he's been doing for the 5 years since he graduated.

    Boss: "Johnson, your new hire is terrible!"

    Johnson: "I don't know why, he had great high school grade"

    Boss: "What about the fact that he lived in a dumpster for the past 4 years?"

    Johnson: "But he was smart in high school!!"

    Is there a long list of 1st rounders who settled in as good NHL players on their 3rd NHL team after "failing" on their first two?

    A player improving on their 2nd NHL team isn't that far out there given the variables of age, coaches, systems, etc., but when failed 1st rounders hit their 3rd and 4th teams is there any track record that says this is a good idea?

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  2. Barker is what the Oilers thought he was - a vet presence with perhaps some upside to provide insurance against having to pull young guys from OKC.

    He is no different than the 4th outfielder or the longman in the pen. You try to find guys who have underperformed expectations. Sometimes they turn their careers around; most of the time they continue to underperform.

    He is two years younger than Corey Potter and its not impossible for him to still turn around his career - though he hasn't shown much this year yet.

    Barker was and is a low risk gamble.

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  3. WG - Yeah, I can't think of any. You might find some guys who never got a decent chance in their first organization and go on to have success elsewhere like Robbie Schremp, but even those examples are probably pretty limited. I suspect that success and failure in the NHL is mostly self-determined and that the environment of play is probably very much a secondary factor.

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  4. A player improving on their 2nd NHL team isn't that far out there given the variables of age, coaches, systems, etc., but when failed 1st rounders hit their 3rd and 4th teams is there any track record that says this is a good idea?

    Jason Smith worked out ok.

    When is the big hearing over the Fraser trade going down today?

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  5. Normally teams don't like to waste money for no reason. Surely there must have been a cheaper bottom pair free agent option that would have been cheaper and better then Barker.

    They must have been going on a hunch of one of their scouts. That scout has egg on their face now that's for sure.

    Barker just doesn't seem to care much. I'm pretty sure everyone reading this blog would be pretty excited to make over 2 million a year playing hockey.

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  6. Jason Smith worked out ok.

    He doesn't quite fit the category as he wasn't really seen as a failure in his career, rather he fell out of favour with the coach in Toronto. He had played something like 250 games by the time he got here. Same with someone like Curtis Joseph.

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  7. A player improving on their 2nd NHL team isn't that far out there given the variables of age, coaches, systems, etc., but when failed 1st rounders hit their 3rd and 4th teams is there any track record that says this is a good idea?


    I guess it depends on how loosely you define "improve". Guys like Cleary and Kilger did ok, eventually.

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  8. Another bash Barker thread.

    Averaging over 20 minutes per game and less than a minute per game away from averaging the 2nd most minutes on the team behind Gilbert.

    +3

    He's not the reason the club is losing as is highlighted by the thrashings the club took when he wasn't even the lineup.

    Not sure what people see in Petry. He has a good stick and solid gap control but he can't make plays under pressure.

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  9. When a GM signs a player, and the only good things he can come up with to say about it afterward have nothing to do with his performance, that's a bad sign.

    In every interview I heard Tambellini adress the Barker signing, all I heard him talk about was his age, the length of his contract only being 1 year, and the fact that he was a high draft pick (SEVEN YEARS earlier) and how that somehow meant he had lots of upside.

    Watch him play and it's clear he's a poor hockey player. Look at the underlying numbers and it should be indesputable.

    I've got to agree 100% with Woodguy here.

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  10. Barker was brought in as a stopgap with the small chance he could develop into something more as was evident by his 1 year deal. Seems like an odd target imo.

    Personally I would be more worried about perceived building blocks that are stagnating in the organization.

    Seems people rather cash in on earlier predictions to stroke their ego than worry about what really ails the team.

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  11. I don't know if I'd say Jason Smith fits the criteria, as I don't think he could be considered a failure on his first team. He was one of the main pieces in the trade that brought Doug Gilmour to New Jersey. You might be able to argue that he was a failure in Toronto depending on what criteria you decide to use, but I think most in TO knew even at the time that trading him was a mistake.

    Dan Cleary is a pretty good example, but I can't think of many (any) others. Kilger might be a streatch as well.

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  12. Not sure what people see in Petry. He has a good stick and solid gap control but he can't make plays under pressure.

    In addition the the tools you mention, he has size, speed, agility, a good shot, ability to carry and pass the puck, and good bloodlines.

    The ability to make plays under pressure should come with age and experience. He only has 55 AHL games and 45 NHL games under his belt.

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  13. It seems ironic that, in the same post that defends Barker, Petry is condemned for being unable to make plays under pressure.

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  14. Hockey's Future has their organizational prospect rankings coming out. The rankings are certainly debatable but I enjoy them. Its nice to see VAN at 29th and CGY at 26th. SJ is judged to have the weakest system.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/13418/hockeys_future_organization_rankings_fall20112130/

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  15. I like Petry's upside but he's not better than Barker right now imo.

    In the future he will likely be a superior player but he needs more seasoning in the AHL.

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  16. Grigorenko passes Yakupov as the new #1 according to ISS.

    2012 is looking like the best draft since 2003.

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  17. WG,
    LOL, great analogy
    IMO this is one of the most common and most impactful mistakes that NHL GMs make. They love draft pedigree.

    Look at our lineup! - We have 8 former 1st round picks.

    Big freeking deal - your team still stinks

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  18. I guess Smith kinda fits in, but he was a significant part of a big trade between TOR and NJD, the Devils didn't give up on him.

    Quinn did in TO though.

    Cleary kinda fits, but the Wings were only his 2nd NHL team. If a player needs a "wake up call", they usually get it after their team.

    I'm more interested in the guys who were considered to play below their expectation on draft day and on their 3rd + team.

    Also,

    Oiler Dman 5v5 TOI/60

    Gilbert 17.32
    Smid 16.30
    Potter 15.77
    Barker 15.60
    Petry 15.05
    Sutton 13.34
    Peckham 12.18

    Oiler Dmen Quality of Competition rank 5v5

    Petry
    Smid
    Gilbert
    Potter
    Peckham
    Sutton
    Barker

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  19. The notion that Cam Barker is a better hockey player than Jeff Petry is laughable. You'd have to be deaf, dumb, and blind to think that.

    Not only is Barker not better than Petry he might be the worst hockey player in the NHL. He does everything badly. He moves slow, he makes decisions slowly, he's soft, he's not agile, he isn't a good passer. He might have a good shot but he doesn't know when to use it. All you need to know about Barker is that he is terrible at everything.

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  20. So Petry is playing third pairing 5X5 minutes but somehow is playing against the top opposition?

    Seems fishy.

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  21. Especially when we know Gilbert/Smid are facing the best every night.

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  22. Cleary kinda fits, but the Wings were only his 2nd NHL team.

    He was a first round pick of CHI

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  23. I would think that Petry's QC number is a little skewed by:

    -Sample size (only 10 games)

    -Petry has played more road games than home games, so coaches trying to avoid the Oilers top pair D would send their better players out against Petry rather than Smid/Gilbert etc.

    -In the 4 games that Petry played with Barker out, his 5v5 TOI has been 19:14 (PHX), 14:08 (DET), 15:37 (CHI), 16:29 (LAK), so with only 10 games played, that helps bump his average up.

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  24. Cleary kinda fits, but the Wings were only his 2nd NHL team.

    He was a first round pick of CHI


    True, but he only played 35 games for CHI and was the key part coming back to the Oilers in the Mironov trade.

    I'm taking about players who get sold for $0.10 on the dollar, get bought out, etc.

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  25. @ WG

    Like Sheldon Souray?

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/7238888/nhl-how-all-worked-sheldon-souray

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  26. From the H2H charts at Copper N Blue, who each D-man played the most aginst over the last 4 games:

    L. SMID -J. TOEWS, M. HOSSA
    T. PECKHAM -J. TOEWS, M. HOSSA
    A. SUTTON -M. KRUGER, B. BICKELL
    C. POTTER -B. BICKELL, M. FROLIK
    J. PETRY -J. TOEWS, M. HOSSA
    T. GILBERT -J. MAYERS, R. OLESZ

    L. SMID -V. FILPPULA, J. FRANZEN
    T. PECKHAM -D. HELM, J. ABDELKADER
    A. SUTTON -P. DATSYUK, N. KRONWALL
    C. POTTER -P. DATSYUK, D. CLEARY
    J. PETRY -J. ABDELKADER, D. HELM
    T. GILBERT -V. FILPPULA, N. KRONWALL

    L. SMID -B. MARCHAND, T. SEGUIN
    C. BARKER -D. KREJCI, M. LUCIC
    T. PECKHAM -G. CAMPBELL, S. THORNTON
    C. POTTER -D. KREJCI, Z. HAMILL
    J. PETRY -G. CAMPBELL, S. THORNTON
    T. GILBERT -B. MARCHAND, T. SEGUIN

    L. SMID -M. PACIORETTY, T. PLEKANEC
    C. BARKER -L. ELLER, T. MOEN
    T. PECKHAM -D. DESHARNAIS, M. CAMMALLERI
    C. POTTER -L. ELLER, T. MOEN
    J. PETRY -A. EMELIN, D. DESHARNAIS
    T. GILBERT -M. PACIORETTY, B. GIONTA

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  27. DSF,

    Its an interesting example, but Souray played at a high level in the NHL before.

    I'm talking about the 1st round pick that doesn't amount to anything in the NHL getting multiple opportunities with multiple teams due to his draft pedigree, then finally turning into a player on his 3rd or 4th team.

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  28. Cleary kinda fits, but the Wings were only his 2nd NHL team. If a player needs a "wake up call", they usually get it after their team.

    Fourth. Drafted by CHI, played in EDM/PHX before the lockout.

    He was at Last Chance Texaco in Detroit, no question.

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  29. Woodguy

    Cleary didn't make an impact until his fourth team. Malhotra didn't make an impact till his third. Andrew Ladd has had his best season with pretty crappy teammates on his third team. Michael Grabner was a Calder finalist on his third team. Al Montoya became a decent NHL starter on his third team. Kilger became a decent bottom 6 forward on his fifth team. Taylor Pyatt had his best run in Vancouver, his third team.

    There are a few success stories with these first round reclaimations. Barker doesn't look like he'll be one of them, but I don't think you can fault a team for taking a gamble because they do payoff sometimes.

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  30. Convinced on Cleary now, as well as the examples Marc gave. Good stuff.

    So I guess it does work from time to time.

    I understand why they took a chnace on Barker, and its only 1 year. I would have like it better if they also picked up another vet who actually is a stabalizing influence in the top 4.

    I like Sutton for what he is, but the hole was up top.

    The bet on Potter seems to be paying off. He's been doing well via Dennis' SC metric (except for the game he was paired with Barker)

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  31. Omark and Peckham/Danis for Tyutin, anyone?

    Gives them cap space. Stabilizes our top 4.

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  32. I watched Barker a lot in the WHL and wow was he dominant. Sadly he appears to have peaked at 17.

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  33. He. Can't. Skate.

    It looks like he can, but chooses not to.

    He moseys.

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  34. Sadly he appears to have peaked at 17.

    Not necessarily - he'd probably be oven more dominant in the WHL today.

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  35. Shit, I left the oven on when I submitted that comment.

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  36. The guy's not a good player and there doesn't appear to be much upside left - if any - so yeah it's a good chance for both 24-58 to get a few more caps and a chance for the org to evaluate them.

    I imagine 44 plays with 6 with Whitney ever returns and then 25 takes turns playing with the kids.

    I know it's just a one year deal - and we're always talking about overpaying on those - but the stipend for 13 is hard to choke down.

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