Ales Hemsky "took a more active role" at practice but wasn't skating on any of the lines yesterday. The lines and pairings remain the same, as Cam Barker also remains outside the starting roster. For the Oilers, this might be an ideal time to get 83 back in the lineup, as there are some legit bumps and bruises and the team is coming off their first loss in some time on Saturday night.
Joanne Ireland has the story here. If Hemsky can't play, and Ryan Jones is also unable to answer the bell, the Oilers might callup a forward from OKC. Linus Omark is having an impact with the Barons, but the club might also choose to look at someone like Teemu Hartikainen, Gilbert Brule or Ryan Keller.
I hope its Omark, and he comes in and has 4 point night against the habs. We need him to get out of the funk he has been in for the start of the season.
ReplyDeleteI don't know. How do you say shine box is Swedish?
ReplyDeleteAccording to Google Translate, Shinebox is Shinebox in Swedish. I was hoping Ikea had some cool name for it like Schrempinflugen.
ReplyDeleteOnce Hemsky is back healthy, I'd set the lines as follows:
ReplyDeleteHorcoff - Smyth - Omark
Gagner - Hall - Hemsky
Nuge - Paajarvi - Eberle
Belanger - Eager/ Jones/ Petrell
Hordichuk
Give Paajarvi Nuge's feeds to get him going, while giving Hall a chance with our best set-up guy and tougher comps.
I'd send Lander down to the AHL for more consistent playing time with Hartikainen and Cornet - develop his offense.
I don't see Brule getting called up at all this year. Wouldn't he have to clear waivers, and someone can take him at half price?
ReplyDeleteMaybe Oil would prefer that, but I'm wondering if they're hoping he finds his groove in AHL to trade/sign in off-season.
Brule is yesterdays newspaper. This is also getting close to Hemsky's last chance. Not interested in protecting himself...ie. stand against the glass and wait for somebody to hammer him!!
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have lost a game.
ReplyDeleteOmark had a 4 point game in his last AHL game.
If he doesn't get called back to the big club this week, then I have little hope he'll be an Oiler for much longer.
Tyler had a post up which showed that Omark was getting some of the late game, one goal lead ice time for the Oilers, so you may be able to rule out sideburns as the issue.
I really hope to see a recall email at some point today.
"but the club might also choose to look at someone like Teemu Hartikainen, Gilbert Brule"
ReplyDeleteBrule has the same PPG as Tulupov.
Hartikainen's is lower.
Unlike those other two, Brule is a minus player.
Philippe Cornet anyone?
I don’t get the hue and cry to put Gagner back at center at Lander’s expense, especially when it’s followed by Lander’s demotion to OKC. By placing Gagner on the wing, Renney has already shown that it is not in the team’s best interest to put him at center. Why now then? Lander’s done nothing to warrant a trip to OKC.
ReplyDeleteIt would just weaken us down the middle and I won’t even speculate about the message this would send to Lander. Put Lander between Hemsky and MPS. If he’s not up to that role, then move in Gagner.
History and the results of the third line to date mandates the following lines:
ReplyDeleteSmyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Hopkins-Eberle
Paajarvi-Gagner-Omark
Petrell-Belanger-Jones
We've got enough toughness on the backend ones Sutton returns. We've got a ton of skill upfront so use it. I know Renney likes to have a tough guy on the 4th, but if you don't have the personnel, run with what you got.
Lander goes down and plays a marquee role in OKC. His game is pretty polished which is why he can run on an NHL 4th line now, but let him learn a scoring role down there for now.
Damn. I'L miss most of that game due to work.
ReplyDelete-_-'.
Those kinda games where i hope it ends it an endless tie.
Forgive my typing in the last. Phone posting isn't quite at the level of convenience yet.
ReplyDeleteBy placing Gagner on the wing, Renney has already shown that it is not in the team’s best interest to put him at center.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm
I'm not sure that is what he's shown.
Of the Centers
Lander has the worst Relative Corsi
And the easiest match-ups.
Jon K has the correct lineup.
ReplyDeleteI think JK has a pretty good handle on things even if I wasn't impressed with that third line last year: some pretty goals but also games where they got drilled chance-wise.
ReplyDeleteI never saw this mentioned anywhere else so I'll guess and suggest 83 make his return on Fri at Det. That gives him a couple more days to take some hits in practice and it would have him debut against a team that really isn't that tough. I wouldn't want his first game back to be against a physical Bruins team and tomorrow night at Ctl seems unrealistic so Fri seems about right for me.
And, yes, most likely you'll see the old 187 line reunited and now the trick is to get a third line going. I'm all about 57 going to OKC and playing all roles and getting some offensive confidence going.
If Hemsky can string a lot of games together this season, the Oilers are going to be a very pretty team. With RNH, Hall, Eberle, Smyth and Hemsky, that's 5 players that can take a game on their back and win it for you. It's been a long time since the Oilers had that many game-changing players on their roster.
ReplyDeleteRT,
ReplyDeleteWhy would you make changes to every line for Hemsky? The team is playing well and has chemistry, ( aside from the Belanger PRV Gagner line). Shuffling every line is a good way to get a losing streak on a roll.
Comments this morning after practice in Montreal.
ReplyDeleteSounds like both Barker and Hemsky are closer than we thought-they took full contact this morning and the fitness test-it's up to Renney at this point.
Let the first video run-there is 3 different videos posted.
Didnt Eager do ok playing the toughs with Chicago?
ReplyDeleteHall-Hopkins-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-Jones
Eager-Gagner-Hemsky
Paajarvi-Belanger-Petrell
Give Hemsky/Gagner a bit of muscle. Should still be able to put up points.
AJ: true enough and maybe just put 83 back with 94-10 and see what the hell we can can do to get the 91-89 combo going.
ReplyDeleteWe know both those guys won't continue to be this terrible at scoring so anytime now, fellas:)
Of course you could also put 37 up with 94-10 considering he has just as many non engf as does 28;)
that would leave 83 to play with 91-89 which is what I'd really like to see.
By Renney's comments today it would seem that a decision on Hemsky's return is close.
ReplyDeleteI have the feeling that Omark's recall may be dependent on that decision. Regardless of the Hemsky situation, if the losses start to pile up it could raise the urgency for Omark's contributions.
Also: If you haven't checked out BDHS today, he has an excellent letter to Comrade Horcov to share.
What I would do is something along these lines, once Hemsky is back;
ReplyDeleteSmyth-Horcoff-Hemnsky
Hall-Hopkins-Eberle
Paajarvi-Lander-Gagner
Petrell-Belanger-Jones
First line plays the toughs whenever possible, feed teh kid line easier minutes but not complete softs; give that to the third line as a possible third scoring line (ideally you'd have Omark there instead of Gagner, but.. I may just want to see what the Swedes can do together). Fourth line would get more minutes than normal fourth lines and you run all four lines all game long.
Omark or Gagner - another smurf - will be gone sooner or later this year. I'd let samwise get back to 100% and then pull the trigger - Kyle Turris anyone?
ReplyDeleteI'm still expecting 94-10-83 to be reunited because of their ability to control the game 5-on-5. That line "shortens the game" as it were. But if not:
ReplyDeleteHall-Hopkins-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Eager-Belanger-Hemsky
Petrell-Gagner-Omark
Would be interesting. We'll never see it...but I'm crazy like that. It allows you to run out Hemsky and Omark on a PP line (which I remain adamant would be dominant if they send Hemsky to the slot), protect Hemsky some, possibly get Eager, Belanger and Paajarvi going, while spreading some responsibility around. In the third when the bench shrinks, this lineup is also more able to adapt.
I keep forgetting this team doesn't have a Bowman-style coach who can adapt the lines to the game though...
Looks like the Nation landed Strudwick as their new writer.
ReplyDeleteThe Power Rankings only have us listed as #4?!¡
ReplyDeleteWe clearly beat the face off the Caps and the Pens earlier this year.
I say we rest Hemsky if Gomez and Markov are out. The Power Rankings clearly list them as #20.
Kyle Turris anyone?
ReplyDeleteMe please. Lots of writers and apparently a lot of GMs still think he's a bonafide No. 1 C in the making. I really don't want the Flames getting him.
Based on their accomplishments to date, it certainly seems like Gagner should get you Turris plus, but they might feel like Turris still has the better upside and that Gags is getting close to "what you see is what you get" territory.
Oake really should have pitched this deal to Maloney during that interview the other night.
Why be annoying and repeatedly vague when you can be annoying and specific?
I'm starting to wonder if Paajarvi and Omark/Gagner aren't the right linemates for Belanger. He's been able to produce in a shutdown role with little powerplay time and a full helping of defensive zone starts. So I took a look at his linemates the last few years.
ReplyDelete10-11: Doan/Upshall and Doan/Korpikoski
09-10: Clutterbuck/Nolan(MIN), Chimera/Fehr (WAS), and Laich/Semin (WAS)
08-09: Clutterbuck/Veillieux and Nolan/PMB
He's played with some skill in Semin and Bouchard, but mostly he's had bangers and utility guys as linemates. North/South wingers seem to be more the types of guys he's played, and had success, with over the last few years. We don't have a Shane Doan to play him with, so why not put him with guys like Jones/Petrell/Eager?
@misfit: I don't mind that. I'm starting to see Belanger as a real good 4C (with lots of PK, faceoff, and protect-the-lead TOI), and those wingers you name are also fourth line types who might play a more complementary game. For sure he doesn't speak the same language in the o-zone as the likes of Gagner, Paajarvi or Omark, it just hasn't worked at all.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't mind a fourth line that's a threat to score once in a blue moon either.
PS @misfit: Props for that research, that's using your noggin!
ReplyDeleteOilers were bound to meet a team that prepared for them. Phoenix remind one of the old Calgary Flames...a good veteran team which on the night wasn't of a mind to be humiliated by these punks.
ReplyDeleteAs for the punks...One seriously doubts whether they're going to lose sleep over a single lost game. This is the formerly known as the 30th place twice time champions of suck we've been watching.
Barring catastrophe, this year's edition of the Oilers is a 6th place hockey team, that's going to scare the living hell out of whoever it meets in the opening round of the playoffs.
@Hunter: I like your optimism, but weren't the twice-time champions of suck both touted as 6th place clubs as well?
ReplyDeleteI'm more from the RT/misfit school for road games.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff - Hall - Eberle
Nuge - Paajarvi - Hemsky
Gagner - Smyth - Omark
Belanger - Eager/Jones/Petrell
The best time to try this is when you sense Smyth needs to rest his aging legs a bit or if the home team is hiding a recent AHL call-up on the third pair (ideally not of the Teubert school of wood-chop Samurai, even if Ryan couldn't care less).
The HHE line spent some quality time together last season. It wouldn't hurt for our uber sophmores to experience the shutdown role for a few games.
I'd also like to experience Nuge chemistry with MPS and Hemsky. It could get MPS going again, and gives Hemmer no excuse not to shoot the puck or make quick touch passes. For MPS it's a guaranteed drought-buster if he's willing to rack up "hard plays at the net".
I'm the first to admit I'm pretty clueless about magic line combinations. In most of my engineering work, you start by assuming linearity. This is the reason why you add the forward signal to the reflected signal to determine state in a transmission line: without non-linearity, the two signals have no way to interact. At first it seems weird that you just add two signals going in the opposite directions, but soon it becomes second nature.
The simple model for hockey would be to assign each player a derating curve over shift length (nearly 100% effective for the first 30 seconds, maybe 40% effective after a hard two minute shift such as Horcoff against the EN goal). You also need to model recovery time between shifts, which is annoying because shift charts don't seem to contain a real time stamp for commercials or replacing the glass.
Then you figure out the optimal time on ice for each player based on derating and recovery curves and assume the outcome in every game circumstance is just a linear sum of every guy on the ice as derated in that exact moment. Matchups would be completely irrelevant. What you lose in one circumstance, you regain in another. A-B + C-D = A-D + C-B. That's what linearity looks like as an equation: invariant under pairing of terms.
To do this properly, you would need to incorporate some dynamic programming and game theory concerning the occurrence rate of PPs. And you can add face-off prowess and zone starts, too. It would still be an entirely linear model.
Only then do you tweak for non-linear terms. What are the most important non-linear terms, exactly?
(pulls out the mental laundry rack)
(surveys mental laundry rack)
ReplyDeleteGuys with a lethal fast break probably need to play in front of a D-pair who can safely feed the puck up the middle. Too much of a speed mismatch among the forwards is problematic gaining the blue line in force. Having no-one who can go into the corners to cycle the puck is a problem. It's useless to have a line that can keep possession if they can't get possession. And you need one or more guys who carry the "safety" torch, the guy who smells the turn-over and drops back a step. It can be one guy who mainly does this, or a shared role taken on by whichever guy is trailing the play. In the shared model, there's more of a premium on continuity of the line as a group. If a line is built to cycle deep, having at least one guy with sixth gear and a first step rocket booster is a compelling virtue, but you also need to realize that this is a formula that demands extremely short shifts. My buddies who mountain bike always say that if you hammer up the mountain at too high a cadence, you'll recover in ten minutes; if you hammer in too low a cadence (e.g. catapult at maximum muscular force off the starting blocks), you'll recover the next day. Even the most fit athlete can only jump out of the sprinter's block so many times in one day without losing half a step.
Another non-linear term is whether you prefer matchups which slow the game down (fewer goals) or speed the game up (more goals). On the stats thus far, MPS is top of the charts as a soporific, and ideal for nursing a lead in the second period.
Hemmer, Omark, Nuge would be the main weapons for opening the game up. Omark is a mainly an option for a desperate final ten minutes, because he's just as likely to turn your one goal deficit into a two goal deficit--even if your goalie is on fire. Hemmer has enough experience to ratchet the desperation level up as the clock expires. If your goalie is on fire, Nuge doesn't give up much at all for what he generates, unlike Omark with the five bell bobble.
Even with all that, I suspect linearity covers 75% of the final result, and non-linearity covers the other quarter. That other quarter might be worth eight points in the standings by the end of the season. No small fish in a game of inches. But it doesn't become a game of inches until your model for yards and feet establishes a proper baseline.
Bruce: If seeing the last and arguably greatest dynasty in hockey history taught me anything, then this absolutely is a 6th place Western Conference team.
ReplyDeleteIf RNH and Hall both play 70+ games.
The quality of teams these punks have beaten proves that they're going to be capable of giving everyone a hard time, game in and game out.
That usually wins hockey games.
Hopefully, Hemsky comes back and gets enough games in that we can trade him to Howson before that guy gets fired.
ReplyDeleteI'm not big on dreaming up line combinations, but one thing I think that is not considered by most fans is some players are sensitive to what line they are playing on and who their linemates are (especially newly signed players).
ReplyDeleteI believe for the most part when players are signed they are told by the GM / coach where they see them playing in the lineup. It's not explicitely written in the contract, but there's a verbal agreement of sorts.
Some players won't react kindly when they see themselves dropping down the depth chart and playing with lesser offensive players.
Of course it is the job of the coach to manage this and ensure the ice time and situations align with the players skills and how each particular player is performing.
For example: Belanger just signed a nice contract for 3 years likely being told that he was signed to center the 3rd line, PK, win faceoffs, play with linemates with some offensive ability, occasionally jump up in the lineup and, some PP duty. He may not be happy seeing himself lined up with Petrell and Eager.
Now this is only a hypothetical example and I know most fans would like to see all players suck it up for the good of the team. However, these are considerations for the coach when he's putting names on the whiteboard.
Something to think about when somebody suggests Hemsky on the 3rd line or Gagner on the 4th.
@ Hunter
ReplyDeleteHave you ever heard of the Law of Averages?
The Oilers are currently 25th in G/G and 1st in GA/G.
The former is about their level of play.
The latter is based almost entirely on a soon to be 36 year old, injury prone goaltender sporting a save percentage a full 43 points better than his best ever season 10 years ago.
Here come Da Judge.
The only thing keeping Gagner on the team right now is he was a former 6th overall pick by Edmonton management.
ReplyDeleteHe doesn't help win games more than Lander, even if Lander is only playing 6 minutes a night on the 4th line.
When Gagner isn't scoring goals (lets be honest, his career high is 15) and when he isn't setting teammates up for scoring chances what does he do to impact the game in a positive way?
- Poor on draws
- No potential to impact the game via physical play
- He doesn't kill penalties
- He is still doing retarded spinorammas in the neutral zone in his 5th year
He is one-dimensional and his dimension is 15 home run DH.
Lets get something useful for him before its too late.
Deal Gagner for 70 cents or Omark for 10 cents? Its not like there is a difference in ability.
Why can't they just send Gagner to the AHL on a conditioning stint? Until he got hurt in exhibition he was playing 100% better than anytime I saw him last season.
ReplyDeleteRegular NHL might not be the best place for Gagner right now.
hunter: I think that would have been an excellent idea. As it is, he's played better the last few games (PHX aside).
ReplyDeleteEventually they'll move him to the middle imo, that's where he'll have the greatest impact.
As for dealing him, no damn way. Sam Gagner might not be the newest toy on the floor, but he has miles and miles of miles and miles and he can play.
Gagner needs to be sent down to the 4th line until he starts scoring.
ReplyDeleteWhen did he make that move that led to Corey Potter's goal? Was that March or late last week? He'll be fine, and as much wailing as I see about Gagner's inability to do things, there's a long fucking list of not much happening on this Oiler forward group.
ReplyDeleteThere are six guys humming and six guys choking. Gagner is just coming back.
Patience. Or as Louise would say, breathe.
I know he isn't the newest toy but I'd deal him for a bottle of multi-vitamins.
ReplyDeleteOr even some gross spinach.
Miles and miles and miles but unfortunately they were all on the treadmill.
Nah. Gagner is not the problem. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to give Gagner another 2 weeks to get his game back, but if he's not helping the PP he's going to have a tough time staying in the top 9. I can't see Renney playing him on the 4th so IMO he could be in trouble.
ReplyDeleteHe's been passed by younger talent - not a good sign.
This is the Oilers though and it's nice to have a guy you know can play when the injuries arise. Oilers with Depth - Who knew?
Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteNah. Gagner is not the problem. Seriously.
Nor is he a solution.
Flush.
lol. He's been passed by younger talent THAT WAS TAKEN FIRST OVERALL!
ReplyDeletePLUS he's been injured. Lordy.
Sorry for yelling.
Send Gagner away! He's 22, he'll never turn into anything, just like Smid! Or that Potter character.
ReplyDeleteOh wait, those are defencemen. Just like that Tim Thomas, or Dwayne Roloson!
Darn, did it again. Just like that Ray Whitney, or Marc Savard, or Marty St. Louis! Ah, there we go.
I mean, he just turned 22 and he's had extended periods of being a very effective forward. He might not ever be a tough minutes forward, or a forward capable of facing top checking lines, but neither of those preclude the possibility of him still becoming a useful forward.
So, in short, he's basically a 22 year old 2nd line forward. Right now.
He's been injured - hence why I'm advocating to give him time to get it back -jeesssh
ReplyDeleteHe's been passed by younger talent - I was looking at it from his point of view, not as a fan.
Hell, this is good news for the Oilers! - a good player gets pushed down the depth chart because better talent has arrived.
SK: Yelling and misunderstanding. Sure sounds like me. :-)
ReplyDeleteUnderstand - you're being provoked by heyenas.
ReplyDeleteBlog comments = Poor medium for communication
SK: Yeah, good point. I don't think peca was pleased way back when with his linemates. And as effective as he was with Torres-Pisani that spring the funny thing was they didn't play one single game together in the regular season.
ReplyDeleteThe place to put 20 if you wanted to go nuclear deterrent would be with 94-10 on a match line. Of course then he'd also have to take faceoffs for 89 in the D zone so that would dictate your rotation:
10 line
Kids
89*
4th
That would be doable though, right?
89's in a plum fucking spot right now. Three kids are here and look to be ahead of him and he's not gonna see hard matches and All he has to do, really, is mesh with 91 and one other guy on a third line.
There isn't a Lot expected of him but he's gotta pull a bit of weight.
You were yelling at the -S- logo weren't you :)
ReplyDeletelol. YES, YES I WAS. :-)
ReplyDeleteSK: By the way, I mentioned to my wife your line "I don't know why she doesn't kill you in your sleep" and now every once in awhile I hear her whispering it.
ReplyDeleteTHANKS!
Yah,
ReplyDeleteThe looks on Torres and Stolls faces when Stortini was put on their line come to mind as well.
and guess where they ended up in the next few games.
Of course neither player or coach are around anymore.
LOL, that's good. I don't think that was me, but I'll take the credit for it.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it was Smarmy or Rider Fan?
There's another member of Rider Nation that frequensts these parts as well, but I can't remember the handle.
Good thing they didn't waive Jones before he scored that short handed goal, or we wouldn't have any.
ReplyDelete