This blog followed three college defensemen once upon a time, and as we might have expected the results were mixed. Jeff Petry appears to be on the verge of becoming an NHL regular, Taylor Chorney is sitting in limbo as a HS in St. Louis, and Cody Wild is a part time AHL defenseman. That cluster should serve as a warning: the chances of all four dub D emerging as NHL talents is poor. Despite the early signs.
- D Brandon Davidson: I ranked him #16 on the summer top 20, and Davidson is the longest shot in the group from my point of view. Late bloomer has calm feet and can move the puck expertly at junior level. His back story makes him in instant favorite and his early results in the WHL this season (19, 5-13-18 +11) have him near the top of league scoring by defensmen. He turned 20 in August, so the numbers have to be taken in that context.
- D Martin Gernat: I ranked him #19 on the summer top 20, mostly owing to glowing reviews by damn near everybody who'd seen him. You never know with these kids and fact is we still don't know because the Oil Kings are deep enough to afford a riverboat gambler. Offense from defensemen is often the first thing that goes once they reach the pro's (rookie defensemen on the PP in the NHL are as rare as Potvin's and Orr's) so we need to get an accurate knowledge about his defensive abilities before crowning him the next great hope. His numbers: 18, 6-12-18 +11 are ridiculous, but we should be cautious.
- D Martin Marincin: May be the most complete player in the group, I had him at #7 during the summer. He's just getting back into action after a 4-game suspension so his numbers (13, 1-7-8 +3) are off the pace. His WHL team is very poor, so his stats need to be taken in context. I think he's tracking well despite the time off.
- D David Musil: I'm a big fan of this kid, he has a nice range of skills and unlike some of the others on this list playing defense is his strength. I ranked him #8 out of the box on the summer list, and he's tracking (19, 1-9-10 +8) well.
Great post LT. Really have to root for Davidson, as you said, due to his back story. Good decision to return him to the Dub, even though he is 20 he hasn't had near the development time of guys his age.
ReplyDeleteCouple of errors in the post, I think that Davidson's GP is showing as 1 and your Musil paragraph states that you are a "big man of him" rather than fan ;)
Thanks for the update LT. Dead on as usual.
ReplyDeleteBloodbath in the markets this morning for those who follow that sort of thing.
Got gold?
I was hoping today's topic was how long can the Oilers keep the kids together on the road because I think the answer is not for long.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers were a mess at EV last night when the 10 line wasn't on the ice and Khabby isn't Hasek in the late 90's so even though we're winning, things have to be changed.
I say go back to 10 splitting 4-14 which he did to some success last year and throw 93 up with the 94-83 duo.
Maybe a couple of mult-goal losses in Bos and Det will change the tune but right now I think Renney's whistling past the graveyard when it comes to road matching.
Gernat's pace seems to be coming back down to earth a bit, production-wise. (E.g. 0 points in an 8-0 win last night.) But he's still very much on the plus side of the ledger.
ReplyDelete"Top 35". Interesting kid.
8-2, sorry.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I get for posting before having my morning coffee.
For Edmonton Oiler fans, the WHL houses the future on the blue
ReplyDeleteWell, except Klefbom, Blain (who is as good a prospect as Davidson), and Teubert.
The WJHC will indeed be a good marker for Oiler Fans this season. Near locks for their respective teams are:
ReplyDelete-Klefbom - SWE
-Gernat - SVK
-Marincin - SVK
-Rieder - GER
-Bunz - CAN
-Musil - CZE
-Pelss - LAT
Possibilities include:
-Perhonen - FIN - not playing for FIN next week in the U20 4 Nations Tournament though
-Simpson - with Murray and Murphy both hurting, there may be an opportunity for a PP specialist, and he's getting a ton of PP time at UND, and was at the Canada summer camp
Chorney on waivers, per Bobby Mac.
ReplyDeleteAre the Oilers ironic enough to do it?
One thing that we might want to think about is the fact that Gernat has been paired up with man-child Griffin Reinhart all year. A player who, at times, has been absolutely dominant everywhere on the ice over the past few seasons in the WHL.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying we shouldn't get excited about Gernat, but we've all seen the effect of a good defense partner can have on a guy at the NHL level.
Lowetide, that is the weirdest thing; I was JUST singing Pressure Drop as I walked up the stairs to my apartment just before popping open my browser and pulling up the blog! Wild..
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLike many people do in their early 20's I was OBSESSED. Every song is burnt into my brain for eternity, even every last one of the 28 songs on Sandinista!
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers claim Chorney, aren't they able to send him directly to the minors? If so, I'd say claiming him is almost a no-brainer.
ReplyDeleteChorney on waivers, per Bobby Mac.
ReplyDeleteAre the Oilers ironic enough to do it?
They are pretty thin on the blue in OKC right now (its Plante and pray for rain) so they may pick him up.
Any team claiming Chorney must keep him on the NHL roster for 30 days. I don't beleive there is any rule that clears the players previous team from this requirement
ReplyDeleteTulupov?
ReplyDelete5GP 0G 3A +5 AT OKC. Any word on minutes and Competition.
Aww, I could have sworn that someone with an authoritative air said that if Chorney was waived in StL that we could claim him directly for the AHL.
ReplyDeleteI hope that still might be true, because Chorns is a good guy and we've put a lot of effort into his development, I think.
if you're interested in OKC check Copper and Blue for reports.
ReplyDeleteTulopov is playing with Motin and sounds like they are doing well. Not sure of their comp though.
Plante is playing with Montgomery who apparently has helped him but Planter himself has been awful at times. Worst Dman on the team for stretches. (Just passing on what has been said, I have no idea myself)
And Helmer is playing with another AHL vet I think. They're the big boys down there when Petry is up. Apparently JP played big minutes and well when he was down.
13.22 When a Club claims a Player on Regular, Re-Entry or Unconditional Waivers, and, subsequently, in the same season it requests Waivers on the same Player and the original owning Club is the successful and only Club making a Waiver claim, then the original owning Club shall be entitled to Loan such Player to a club in another league within thirty days without further waivers being asked; provided that such Player has not
ReplyDeleteparticipated in ten or more NHL Games (cumulative) and remained on an NHL roster more than thirty days (cumulative) following such successful claim.
In short, since Chorney was only on the Blues roster for 29 days (claimed Oct 11), if the Oilers are the only team to put in a claim, they can send him directly to OKC. Given that he was only on the roster for 29 days, I assume there is a gentleman's agreement in place that the Oilers will claim him to prevent STL from having to eat his salary all season.
Ironsight, I think that the 30 days is irrelevant here. My read is as long as the reclaim is in the same season that the 30 day limit only applies should the Oilers allowed him to participate in 10 games/ 30 roster days "following" their reclaiming Chorney.
ReplyDeleteBTW, loved your work as "Jester" in Topgun.
I read that the same as Ducey. I think they can send him directly to the minors as long as they do it within 30 days of re-claiming him.
ReplyDeleteDucey and Misfit - I think you may be right. I was reading it as though the 30 day onus was on the original claiming team. That doesn't seem to be the case.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone think of another example of this happening? ie player waived, claimed, waived again, and re-claimed by his original team?
Steve MacIntyre the first year the Oilers claimed him on waivers from the Panthers in 2009/10 season.
ReplyDeleteWhen Florida claimed him back, they sent him to the minors.
Just happened with Brett Mclean being claimed by the Jets and then going back to PHX.
ReplyDeleteJust read an article about how there are growing calls in Flames Nation to trade Iginla this year and start rebuilding.
ReplyDeleteThe problem cited was figuring out a team that would and could pay up for him and that has a legit enough shot at the Cup that he'd be willing to waive his no-trade.
An intersting problem to be sure, as Iginla himself talked about how the cap/parity era means that you can't just go to Detroit or Colorado a la Bourque and be virtually guaranteed a run to at least the conference finals anymore.
The Kings wanted him before, but do they still have the pieces after the Richards deal to make it worthwhile for the Flames?
Who would be their best dance partner?
Would Columbus be desperate enough to give up 2 firsts for Iginla? DOn't know that they have much more of value to offer (doubt they'd move johansen), but you'd have to think that Howson would at least be interested in Iginla... if not rabid...
ReplyDeleteFrom what I know about the flames pipeline, they seem to be all 6s and 7s... there are very few teams with enough high quality assets to pay for him.
If he's on the market... I'd offer Hemsky and a 2nd. The weirdness alone would make that trade freakin awesome!
Ducey, hilarious Top Gun joke there.
ReplyDeleteAlso, when I read the title to this post it was a different "Four Horsemen" that popped into my head...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4nCy5CITc8
Jordan
ReplyDeleteCBJ would have to give Calgary equal salary back or bury equal salary in the minors to trade for Iginla. They are up against the cap so hard the CBA is considering filing harassment charges.
Wildass idea
ReplyDeleteDo not sign Hemsky and trade for Iggy.
We have a first line RW for this year and next, he might resign for another year or two at ok money thereafter. Good hands, great motor, tough guy. No injury history. Local guy. Might win a cup or two here before he has to retire
Accelerates the plan to compete but do not think the way that RNH,Hall and Eberle are developing that we are that far away
I can vouch that Marincin's junior team is utter bollocks!
ReplyDeletePoorly managed family business.
So poorly managed that a group of ex Cougs, including Eric Brewer and Dan Hamhuis tried to buy the team.
LT,
ReplyDeleteIn hindsight, what are your thought on how those three defencemen developed and the fact that math did not seem to support Petry emerging as the better player(which he seems to be at this point). Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that math supported Wild as the best young Dman. Is this a result of having incomplete data, the coaches holding Wild back (they certainly seemed to prefer Petry/Chorney's game), or something else.
Looking back, is there any useful lessons/statistics that we can apply to our your D prospects (other than not to get our hopes up)?
Jamie: I'd have to go back and look, but iirc Chorney was the better prospect early offensively and then Petry late.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I spent too much time staring at the offense while forgetting that Dmen don't bring their offense to the NHL (it's very rare).
The only way for Chorney to have ever delivered in a role at the NHL level? Mondo PP time. And we can see that when he arrived in the NHL, Edmonton had other, better and more established options.
Petry was the more impressive looking player and as time rolled out he emerged as the better prospect. But offense had far less to do with it than any of my analysis suggested at the time.
Petry had, by far, the best draft-pedigree/size/skill combination of the three. There was never much doubt that he was the best prospect of the three.
ReplyDeleteSome of Petry's stats in his second year at MS appeared bad because MS was in a rebuilding year and sucked, and a lot of people began to question whether he was as good as claimed.
And, the only people who had Wild and Chorney remotely close to each other are those who only looked at statistics, and claimed coaches kept on showing favouritism to Chorney because of draft pedigree.
I thought we would be very lucky if even one of those guys panned out - so I'm satisfied with Petry's development and not at all surprised at the other turning into dust. As for the new kids on the block - probably 50/50 that one of 2nd round picks Marincin/Musil ends up being an NHL player. I'll do hand stands if both make it - and we've hit the lottery if either one of the others do anything in the pros.
ReplyDeleteI have fantasized about trading for Iginla in my secret dreams...
ReplyDeleteIf EDM got the Edmonton native, who knows what would happen? Dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria!
crazycoach
ReplyDeleteany chance Marincin could get traded? would love to see him on a good team. Without Connely that is a putrid bunch over in PG