Since I can remember, I'd cheer for the underdog on my favorite team.
As an Oiler fan, Chris Hajt, Michel Riesen, Marc Pouliot and many others became guys I'd cheer for to the point of jackass stubborn. Tony Hand, cheered like hell for that guy. I've chosen my "underdog" for the season.
I have no idea how Sam Gagner got there (ineffective bottom 6 forward) but there he is, and the young man isn't posting a lot of crooked numbers. What's more, he looks slower, smaller and less effective than the new hires.
A gentleman who does business with me said the other day "Gagner on RW is a slow Eberle with way less skill." Ouch. Pretty harsh. So is there any hope for Gagner?
Hell yes. Sam Gagner has a poor 5x5/60 number so far this season, especially compared to his own past:
By The Numbers
•07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.96
•08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.69
•09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.56
•10-11 5x5 per 60m: 1.91
•11-12 5x5 per 60m: 0.50
Gagner's 1.91/60 came in 16.5 hours work, this season Gagner has played barely 2 hours at even strength. As the season wears on, he'll improve that number and the 5x5 total will fall in line with previous seasons. Gagner was slowed by injury during pre-season and has missed a half dozen games so far this season. His being left behind in the pre-season meant the other skill players got a head start, chemistry ensued and at the end of the day he (plus Paajarvi and Omark) was on the outside looking in.
I think Sam Gagner's next game may see him centering two solid offensive options on either wing. I'm cheering like hell for him, as he's an underdog.
Incredibly.
Who knew that the third line would become a black hole this year. It seems whoever it touches turns to dust.
ReplyDeleteWell, they COULD fix it imo by putting Belanger between Jones and acquire a veteran checker. That might be a solid checking line, or at least good enough to be able to help the Horcoff line against tough competition.
ReplyDeleteBut in theory I'm sure they want Gagner, Paajarvi, Eager and Petrell to join the top 8 (top 2 lines plus Belanger and Jones) as helpful players.
Eventually, the Oilers might want to deal Gagner. But not now, value isn't going to be there.
I don't think Gagner is struggling.
ReplyDeleteHis numbers are terrible but its because he is no longer batting 4th in the order more than it is about his skills deteriorating.
I foreseen this happening and its why I would have traded him sometime in the off-season while his value was somewhat high.
Unless he somehow reinvents himself I don't see a role for him moving forward.
Best to cut your losses now and take what you can get while you still can.
Top 8! Yeah, that says a lot. We want the rest of our roster to play like Jones and Belanger can!
ReplyDeleteI better tone it down, I'm thinking negative thoughts like the resident troll does. I hope the return home pays off for fans. And Dubnyk.
He looked great in TC, takes his annual injury and he's back to normal. Ridiculous. I could care less if he's in the line up or not. Doesn't do anything special anymore...
ReplyDeleteSorry for the pessimism.
It's not just Gagner, though. Magnus Paajarvi (0.38 PTS/60) and Eric Belanger 0.32 PTS/60) are in the same range - worse, actually.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Traktor has some glib answer about Paajarvi being a poor man's Lennart Petrell at the ready here, but I think there's something else going on that has more to do with percentages and sample size than the demise of three players with better historical totals.
Okay, so if he had just 3 more measly even strength points he's be at historical norm? Colour me not worried. Yet.
ReplyDeleteSome of that is function of sample size, some injury recovery, some line mates.
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ReplyDeleteYou lost me at Princess Leah :P
ReplyDeleteBut seriously... the third line has been a black hole and all of us arm chair GM's see the common sense in going with;
The kid line
The Jo Shmoe line (94-10-28)
91-89-83
?-20-37
(? being Eager or Hordichuck and 37 being Petrell, brain fart and don't know if I got the number or the name spelling correct)
This could balance out scoring, kick start the third line and keep a reasonable 4th/checking line you could play against almost anyone. Plus Belanger still gets PP (why?) and PK time to augment his minutes.
Traktor's argument in not without merit.
ReplyDeleteLast season Gagner ranked 4th in ES TOI/G and this season he is 10th among forwards.
On the PP, this season he is 5th while last season he was 3rd.
It's obvious Renney believes he has better options and has constructed his lineup thus.
It's certainly not surprising that Gagner's point production would drop under those circumstances especially in light of him playing with less gifted team mates.
A similar argument can be made with Paajarvi although it seems pretty obvious to even casual observers that Paajarvi's lack of production is pretty much his own responsibility since he seems unable or unwilling to go to the net.
I would suggest Belanger's malaise is directly attributable to him playing with inferior team mates than he has in the past.
His best season (40 points) was last year when he played the 3rd most ES minutes per game on the Coyotes second line with some pretty decent players.
A tell here is Belanger's shots on goal.
Since the lockout, he has averaged 140 SOG per season.
This season he is on pace for only 100.
Put those three tales of woe together and you get the Oilers third line.
Everyone likes to root for the underdog, but usually it’s because they’ve shown at least in some small way some sort of bite we can’t wait to see come out again.
ReplyDeleteI want to like Samwise but I haven’t seen the the sting yet.
@LT,
ReplyDeleteI understand the approach to a new checking line. That said, don't we already have that by just moving Jones back with Petrell and Belanger ?
The question is would Ganger, Magnus and Omark give us the 3rd line we are lacking ?
When do you blame the coach? Lowetide nailed the problem on the head when he said they were looking for someone to join Belanger and Jones. The problem is the idea that Belanger and Jones are part of the "top 8."
ReplyDeletePut Belanger and Jones together as a checking line, play them more than most fourth lines, and put skill guys together (i.e. Gagner with Paajarvi and Omark).
Renney's fixation with roles is putting an anchor on these guys. It is also, ironically enough, given him a lineup that is less flexible because instead of four good lines he has two good lines and two bad lines.
At some point Renney needs to take responsibility for all of these guys are playing. If he takes good offensive players and turns them into nothing how does that help the team?
@ Regwald.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think 3 players with a total of zero goals and 3 points in a cumulative 31 games played constitutes a third "scoring line" ?
Oh crap... Captain obvious found his way over here :(
ReplyDelete#sad trombone
I was here first. I just go to oilers nations to bug the illiterates that hang out there. Are you illiterate too?
ReplyDeleteI think that 3rd line has more potential that Jones and Belanger and player X right now.
ReplyDeleteNice to see Renney cracking the whip - at least in the press - and giving notice that he wasn't ready just yet to let an outstanding start fritter away in the face of more "seasoning."
ReplyDeleteSo now it's to wait and see how the new top nine's constructed. As well, we had goals against for the 4th line on the trip and of course they aren't giving us anything back.
As much as I clamored to see 87 rejoin 94-10 upon his return, the best idea may be to put 28 back into that slot and have 83 try and pump the tires of 91-89. That combo are playing against nobodies right now and aren't delivering a fucking thing. You can understand the kids will slump here and there and they're gonna get tough matches but no one cares enough about the third line to worry about them and in a game where Bolland wasn't playing, the third line really could have helped out.
But they didn't.
This is about building lines that allow us to compete on the road. Oilers go home to play the Sens but then it's the hawks and three tough road games plus Col to finish out a rough stretch; oil own in col these days so that one doesn't worry me.
An up arrow is two great chances for 4 last game out and the knowledge that he's too good to be this ineffective for this long.
I think there's a fairly reasonable chance we see a trade in the near future.
ReplyDeleteSomething like Omark and Peckham for Tyutin. A couple of young, cheap up and comers for cap relief veteran help. Might not be outta Ohio, but something along those lines. At least that's what I think Tambi should be considering.
A big top 6 winger would be nice too, but it probably would mean dealing a piece most wouldn't want to part with. Something like Hemsky for Penner. Interesting though if the squad looked like this after those two moves:
SMYT HORC GAGN
HALL NUGE EBER
PENN BELA PAAJ
EAGE LAND PETR
SMID GILB
TYUT POTT
SUTT PETR
WHIT
Something along those lines looks more like a playoff team.
Flat-out, Gagner (and Paajarvi) are better than what they've shown so far this season.
ReplyDeleteAs is Eric Belanger, although he's a different player type.
What has to happen is that Renney needs to get past the traditional view of "two scoring lines, one checking line, and an energy line" (where "energy line" means "line with at least one player who throws a bunch of hits and fights occasionally but is marginally good at playing NHL hockey").
Most upper-tier NHL teams have three good lines that can do some combination of score and play in their own end (at least one tough minute line, if not two), while the 4th line can house some players able to step up when needed and play some even-strength or PK minutes.
Between Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Smyth, Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner and MPS, you have eight guys who are without question "top nine" options for a forward group. Ryan Jones can hold down the 9th spot, or he can go to the fourth line and they can play a Lander, Omark or Hartikainen to fill out that group.
Is there anything "bad" about fielding a 4th line of Petrell-Belanger with one of Jones or Lander (with Eager stepping into the equation every 2nd or 3rd game, as deemed "necessary")? Not particularly - it shows depth.
Gagner has been slowed by injury for sure, but he and MPS are being under-utilized right now via the insistence that Belanger play on the 3rd line. Based on the shuffling during the Chicago game, it seems like the coaches have put a barrier between the 2nd and 3rd lines in terms of "whom plays with whom", when said division really should be between lines 3 and 4.
Time to think outside the box, Mr. Renney. The line-matching and feeding of the kids super-soft minutes in terms of zone-start and opposition has been good in terms of trying to win games - but he can go one step further by mixing things up further and having three lines that are actually an offensive threat. How one actually sets up those three lines is wide open to debate, but the basic principle is what is key, IMO.
Continue down this road, and the Oil eventually run the risk of letting a good young forward such as 89 or 91 slip through the cracks (and yes, we need to remember these two are 22 and 20 years old, respectively) and we're sitting here 3-4 years from now bemoaning how this is a one-line hockey team and how it would be nice to reverse the deals of Paajarvi and Gagner that landed us a second-pairing defenseman and a couple of B-list prospects that still haven't established themselves as NHL players.
People bitched about letting Schremp go for nothing, worrying that he was "the next Marc Savard" - there is a FAR higher risk of Gagner being the next Savard (or Paajarvi being the next Satan) than there ever was of letting a guy like Schremp go on waivers. Time to put these two (and, by extension, the entire hockey team) in a better position to succeed.
H-Bomb:
ReplyDeleteIt's obvious Gagner, Paajarvi and Omark are better than they've shown this season, but subpar performance will continue as long as Renney insists on 2 checking lines.
Today's practice had the worst of the lot putting Gagner between Eager and Petrell... :(
Talk about beating a dead horse.
Rick:
ReplyDeleteTo me, if you've got a quality power-vs-power offensive line as either line 1 or 2 (and that's what Smyth-Horcoff with Hemsky or someone else can provide), only one of the bottom two lines needs to be a checking line.
And today's line combination switches, I'm not a fan. Is it a huge leap to play Petrell instead of Jones with Belanger and Lander? That would leave a Paajarvi-Gagner-Jones trio as the "4th" line. Way more logical.
In the Chicago game, there was close to 100 minutes of ice time allocated to players in their rookie or sophomore seasons, and another 60 minutes to guys folded into the mix in the off season (with Lander and Barker scratched).
ReplyDeleteThat's about 50% of the ice time for skaters in the flux bucket. The center piece we are building around has a really short resume of professional hockey experience. How often do teams replace three of five centers in one season leaving only one established vet in a familiar role?
Logjam ensues assembling four productive lines. Traktor's spider sense tingled. News at 11.
In addition to the injury, I wouldn't blame Gagner for having a spot of depth chart vertigo.