The end of preseason games for the Oilers gives us our first chance to catch up on prospects and their early performances. As always, there are surprises good and bad, worries and smiles, up arrows and down elevators.
CHL
- Martin Gernat: 4, 3-4-7 +4: I don't really know what to say about this player and his start. Good job? Let's not get too excited.
- Brandon Davidson 5, 1-6-7 +1: Massive start for puck moving defender. It looks like he's motivated to get that pro contract.
- David Musil: 5, 0-4-4 +2: Showed well in TC and preseason and I think he'll be fast tracked by the organization. A nice offensive start, although that isn't the sum of his parts.
- Martin Marincin: 2, 0-3-3 +1: A solid start for blue chip prospect. Showed well in TC but clearly needed more experience and the chance to grow into that big body.
- Tobias Rieder: 3, 1-2-3 +3: Good start, he has quite a bit of skill but fell down to tweenerville at the draft. I think we should expect a very good offensive season if he's the real deal.
- Jeremie Blain: 4, 1-1-2 E: Rangy defender is healthy this season, it'll be interesting to see how much offense he can post in a full year.
- Kristians Pelss: 4, 1-0-1 E: Improved in last season's second half, he is starting slowly again this year.
- Drew Czerwonka: Hasn't played a game for Kootenay, that injury looks like it'll impact his season a little.
- Travis Ewanyk: Like Czerwonka, injury will be a factor in his season.
- Tyler Bunz: 3-3, 3.21 .916: Off to a nice start, he was very good Friday night by all reports. This is a huge season for him, the SP suggests Bunz is up for the challenge.
- Toni Rajala: 4, 0-2-2: Rajala was not impressive during TC and I wonder if he's lost in the flood of MBS picks. Appears to be going the wrong way, a strong SML season might turn things around. Right now, he's miles south of Salmelainen.
- Oscar Klefbom: 5, 0-0-0 E: It looks like he's not doing much, but Klefbom is actually getting into games this season and has over 30 minutes on-ice in the SEL. I wonder if its the right way to develop this player, but big boxcars didn't happen last season and they won't this year. We should get a strong look at him at the WJ's.
- Samu Perhonen: 3, 2.36 .920: This is Finland-2 league, same one as last season. His SP a year ago was .900 so he's off to a good start.
- Frans Tuohimaa: 3, 3.02 .906: This is also Finland-2 league, he has also played on game in the SML. Tuomhimaa's early numbers trail Perhonen but it's early and this isn't a wide margin.
You have to be anticipating that at some point the Oilers have the two Slovaks patrolling the Blue. Good skating, good offense 6'5" D. Yowzah.
ReplyDeleteAnd no other team saw what Marincin was and then paid attention to Gernat. That will be the loud pub down the road.
Considering Färjestads BK are on a six game losing stretch Klefbom and his +/- is on E he's doing rather OK. It actually puts him tied for second best on the whole team.
ReplyDeleteThat quite some talent pool on D.
ReplyDeletePetry
Marincin
Gernat
Klefborn
Musil
Teubert
Davidson
Blain
Unfortunately most of them are at least two years away.
Unfortunately most of them are at least two years away.
ReplyDeleteTwo years away from being an NHL rookie and therefore 2-3 years away from solid contributions in the NHL, so a total of 4-5 years away from helping.
Two years away from being an NHL rookie and therefore 2-3 years away from solid contributions in the NHL, so a total of 4-5 years away from helping.
ReplyDeleteAt which point there should probably be some huge holes on the wings and bottom 6. This is the Oilers after all. ;-)
makha - makha pakha - and if you don't know what I'm talking about, you likely don't have Treehouse on 14 hours a day.
Two years away from being an NHL rookie and therefore 2-3 years away from solid contributions in the NHL, so a total of 4-5 years away from helping.
ReplyDeleteTrue, though I would think that just "helping" would be a tad pessimistic. Considering that D development is uneven the fact that there is a pool that deep is heartening. Then the talent level of Klefborn, Musil, Marincin and Petry should place them top four. There is both quality and quantity.
After just a few games in the WHL last year, it seemed that so many Oilers fans were crowning Marincin as "our Chara". Glad we're not making the same kneejerk mistake with Gernat, though it's hard not to be pleased with the early return.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Marincin is going to be Chara, but he's tracking very well. He ran out of gas a year ago, as did his team. Blue chipper, I think he's a very valuable asset.
ReplyDeletePeople don't realize how bad the diet is in Eastern Europe. This especially affects stamina. Add to that the hellacious travel schedule of Prince George and there you have the Marincin results. Gernat by comparison has it easier in Edmonton. But I would expect him to hit the wall as well, probably later. But it's the projected talent level of the two that's a credit to the scouting department.
ReplyDeleteSo with most of our D prospects two years away, and the forwards 2 years from their peak, does that not mean we should we signing to fill those holes for 2 years. I know McCabe is not a top guy anymore, but he improves our team for the next 2 years, can play top 4 (on our team) and allows us to not rush any of our D prospects.
ReplyDeleteSign McCabe to 2 years, pick up a player on waivers who allows us to have some depth this season and then pray Whitney can be healthy all year. Without it we are destined for bottom 5 territory again.
Two years away from being an NHL rookie and therefore 2-3 years away from solid contributions in the NHL, so a total of 4-5 years away from helping.
ReplyDeleteThat is probably true for the majority, but there's probably a pretty decent chance that one of those guys is ahead of that timeline.
I mean, don't put that in ink or anything, but on the balance of probability I don't know how unreasonable it is to think one of those D will be a top 4 D within 3 years. I don't know which one, but one of them.
Or do you think even that is unreasonable/unlikely? It could be, the timeline for D sure doesn't seem very projectable.
speeds: I think one of them (let's say Marincin, Klefbom or Musil) should be able to play at that level in the time frame. It would seem reasonable.
ReplyDeletewhat scares me is none of our D project at a #1. I know it is early on many of them, but shouldn't we be looking at a 3 for 1 deal for a #1. I keep coming back to Nashville, who have money issues and need forwards with skill. I know we don't want to move young guys who will develop, but we have too many top 9 forwards and can part with 1 if not 2 of them along with a D prospect for a top end Dman.
ReplyDeleteRajala's both assists came in his previous game which was against Jokerit (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgZVIoeKSg). In first goal he's the guy who shoots from blue line and there's redirection in front of net. I don't know how he has played in general but hopefully he is improving.
ReplyDeleteAnd here are goal highlights (unfortunately no saves) from Tuohimaa's only game in SM-Liiga this far: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FWApi-AH2g
Jokerit (Tuohimaa) are using blue jerseys. There wasn't much he could have done about those goals but he wasn't satisfied with his performance. Especially in first and second period he was nervous but improved in third.
DBO:
ReplyDeleteI don't know if I agree that the Oilers have too many top 9 forwards. But even if I did, I don't think now is necessarily the time to make that move.
Tuomas: Thanks for that update, appreciated.
ReplyDeleteDBO: I think the Oilers should be fine as long as they have guys who can play evs and pk and other guys who can play evs and pp.
Was Paul Coffey a #1? I know that's a ridiculous comment but Scotty Bowman didn't think so.
LT: true. Kelfbomb and Maincin seem like top end #2's. Musil a solid #3. And who knows about Gernat. I guess I'll take 4 guys who are solid, add Petry to that mix and it looks good, but it doesn't help us for at least 2 years. Funny, you have been saying for 2 years that we need more top end D, and only now are the local media coming to the same conclusion. Here's hoping someone is reminding Tambellini that 2 more years of crap is not acceptable.
ReplyDeleteDBO:
ReplyDeleteI think the best explanation for EDM not picking up another D this summer is that one more year at the bottom is at least somewhat acceptable by the Oilers, if it comes to pass. Not necessarily that they are actively looking to finish at the bottom, but that if it happens, it happens.
If it turns out that the forwards take a bigger step than anticipated, and the team is in the race come December, , it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the Oilers try to pick up an overpriced D from a team looking to cut salary for a 4th round pick (not a top 2 round pick, anyways) to upgrade the top 4 for a playoff push.
dohfOs: When you're playing 6 minutes a game like Klefbom, being even is fairly meaningless. He's likely being kept far away from anyone who could do any damage.
ReplyDeleteEx post at HF boards today:
ReplyDeleteKlefbom was out with a concussion in the opening games but have now played 3 games.
Färjestad - Brynäs 1-4.
Klefbom played 12.59 minutes and had 3 shots on goal, most in our team that game.
Luleå - Färjestad 2-0.
Oscar played 10.52 min, 1 shot (went wide) and handed out 1 hit.
Modo - Färjestad 3-2 after shootout.
He played 6.50 with no shots.
We are now last in the standings with only 10 goals in 7 games.
I don't think we should necessarily forget Teubert in this equation either.
ReplyDeleteHe's a player that can be contributing before the 4-5 year span mentioned.
Petry, Teubert and one of Klefbom, Musil, or Marincin... with the balance to follow on their timeline. Gilbert, Whitney if he's still here and whatever help they can find by trade or signing, it's possible we can see big advances by this D corps in 2-3 years.
In fact just one signing next summer of a player of Shea Weber's ability, and this could very quickly be one of the best and deepest defensive corps in the league.
A handful of 2s and 3s on D is better than a #1 with a bunch of 4s and 5s. D by committee, with a good level of depth, is the ideal for an NHL team. The Oilers are headed there, but as WG pointed out, that won't solidify until 3-5 years down the road.
ReplyDeleteThe journey to the destination is also interesting
ReplyDeleteA little over a year ago, they had one viable young defenseman. Quite an improvement in the right direction
ReplyDeleteAye, och. 'Tis true.
ReplyDeleteRyan Martindale got his contract. Nice.
ReplyDeleteBy Edmonton Oilers Press Release
ReplyDeleteEdmonton Oilers General Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the club has reduced its training camp roster by five players.
The following were placed on waivers for purpose of assignment to Oklahoma City (AHL) today:
Gilbert Brule (C)
Josh Green (LW)
Ryan Keller (C)
Ryan O’Marra (C)
The Oilers also assigned Teemu Hartikainen (LW) to Oklahoma City.
Edmonton’s roster now sits at 27 players.
Lander beat out Brule, yay!
Jones beat out Harski, boo!
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteIts possible that one of those D is a solid NHL contributor within 4 years, probably Musil.
All the forward kids will be off the ELC's by then though.
Would have been nice to see them load up on 2-3 vet dmen to supports these forwards now.
I still think 2 solid NHL D and a good partner for DD has this team battling for a playoff spot.
These forwards are pretty good.
Brule put on waivers. Wow. Perhaps unsurprising based on performance, but still, a little out of character for the Oil. Good on them for making the right call instead of worrying about waiver fears.
ReplyDeleteWe've all seen how erratically defenseman develop from CHL/Euro to AHL to the pros.
ReplyDeleteYet not one of the nice collection of kids is a sure thing at #1 or #2.
I think we'll be lucky if 3 of them are top 6 NHL regulars within 4 years, and Steve (or his successor) will still have to draft or trade for our future #1 guy.
So, Petrell & Hordichuk doing the Press Box Do-Si-Do? Other than Harski going down, I'm pleased.
ReplyDeleteOh. And the D. The awful, awful D. Weekend waiver claims all come through tomorrow, yes?
Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?
ReplyDeleteStephen Pinker also reviews this book recently, but I didn't like his piece much; he's promoting a new book of his own and found an hour to keep his name in the conversation.
The surprising claim is that will power functions a lot like a muscle. It can run out of gas, and is quickly boosted by a sugary snack. Do NOT schedule your parole hearing in the last slot before lunch.
This all stems from the old marshmallow studies: gratification deferral as the great predictor.
Yesterday I wrote a few rude lines about Bettman destroying young lives by the dithering on the obvious--with much implied violence to his person, but nothing captured on camera. It felt good. And you can still bring your kids.
As the engineer of the current CBA, he's a capable man, in the sense that he achieved what he set out to achieve.
In one week of decision fatigue, a GM can ransack his team's hope karma for an entire decade. Bettman intends every team to have hope every season. He never wants to see a team pass the highway sign "no gas station next 1000 miles". Signs like that make Russia seem like a big country. It's enough to make a grown hockey fan plow the muscle bike into the nearest Russian redwood, then crawl around foraging for Huckleberries.
We've got a nice little glacier stream of hope trickling down the mountainside, stretching five to eight years into the future--if we do nothing at all but continue to draft well, while managing our prospect pipeline like it actually matters.
Enter Clusternomics, from the "what have you done for me lately?" crowd. After ten hard years in the desert, we're thinking gluttony. Fish stacked hip deep on all three decks at the same time; nothing but bluefin, shark, and swordfish.
It's darn risky under the current CBA to skimp on sardines. In no time at all your daring accomplishment is due for another RFA/UFA haircut. In the short window where your cluster is thumping on all three decks, chance happens. Two years of mad bacchanalian potency cut short by an early exit one year, then an overtime loss to the Kings in the conference finals, followed by the Chicago program, and then ... nothing.
In our present circumstance a GM who is merely competent is wise to do not very much.
Fans who wish our GM was playing Flight of the Valkyries in the background when unholstering the red phone are unimpressed. We suspect Tambi is not good enough to play Flight of the Valkyries in background, and I think we're right.
Then we hold it against him, and denounce him as having less than average competence, which I continue not to see. I'm slow to judge on the absence of evidence, for reasons I posted about the other day.
One must consider the Hippocratic Oath: first, do no harm. If you have an incurable patient, all the competent doctors sit around doing nothing, while the quacks hatch many schemes. Over the course of decades, a few quacks with genius distinguish themselves, and medicine progresses--on the backs of many cadavers.
(Crappy halftime show commences.)
Interested to know how Brodin's TOI compares to Klefbom. His numbers aren't any better but based on last season he does get preferred minutes over Oscar does he not?
ReplyDeleteI think Harski to OKC is the right call for right now.
ReplyDeleteLet him go, play a lot of minutes instead of sitting in the PB.
Thinking Lander is playing until Gagner's healthy. Then it gets interesting with the Nuge as well.
Nice to see them make the right call on Brule - he did not earn a spot. This is a different Oilers management, 3.1 is learning.
harski's a victim of the idiotic Jones signing. There's no other way to state this.
ReplyDeleteNone.
The number two 18 yr old rearguard on the team likely isn't a minute/opportunity rich place to be...
ReplyDeleteI'm still struggling with why people think your 4th C actually has to be a C. What's the point? Just find a versatile guy and play him there.
ReplyDelete(Crappy halftime show concludes.)
ReplyDeleteThe best time to trade is when doing nothing is simply impossible: more prospects than contracts or contract dollars, to a team with procurement holes. I think it's generally a seller's market. Unfortunately, the league never leaves the CBA wok alone long enough to find out. It's due for another shot of soy and some mad tossing. Wikipedia shrieks in bold Should neither side reach an agreement prior [to striking midnight], but then fails to elucidate one hand shaking. (I've long advised that if you've ever pulled something off the bottom of your shoe and put it in your mouth, don't visit Wikipedia.) Sometimes with my own wok, I lose thermal control (it's not in my genes) and have to set the wok on a cold burner for a year, until it's ready to go again--brimming with fresh European vitamins.
It would be nice for management to do something about the hollow between our F cluster maturing before our eyes and our D cluster sprouting many tender shoots. But when? A conservative view might be to hold off until the team wins a round in the playoffs.
So there's all of that. Then the question becomes, "but couldn't they at least make more of the sensible small transactions so the fans suffer less in the interim?"
Evidence is that management wouldn't give a plastic fork about supplying morphine to dull the shirt-rending diehard wail. What can we do? They're going to build a new rink, and take their Hall with them.
I used to play a couple of the combat board games where chance happens. The games are set up to reward extreme aggression, yet the players who go 100% Napoleon rarely prevail.
You ponder greedily, "I've got air superiority now, and more tank factories than anyone else, but no actual tanks". Of course you try to balance this out in small ways, but it's usually best to be push forward with what you've got in hand that sit tight on mad schemes of synchronized Army/Navy/Airforce dominance. I've played against Muster Cluster many times.
While your opponent musters his cluster, you set yourself up to pick off Uzbekistan, Kamchatka, New Zealand, and Madagascar in small insignificant skirmishes. In due coarse, the Armageddon onslaught is unleashed, Muster Cluster bangs some heads, it looks pretty bleak, then just as quick Muster Cluster outruns his supply chain trying to regain Madagascar.
In the Mad Max morning after, those fresh tanks you didn't have in hand quite soon enough start looking mighty nimble. You've got scattered outposts around the globe to squirrel them into while Muster Cluster engages in a crash program of V3 mass production--now with twice the desperation and mad panache.
You sit tight breeding bunnies in the Australian outback, efficiently annexed from your small post in New Zealand.
Thrashing about is a symptom of decision fatigue. It's also a consequence of massing too much. I don't think it works well on either side.
DMW: All due respect, but have you considered starting your own blog & linking to your posts in the thread? I, for one, would prefer a short little link & optional reading versus three scrolls of my mouse & conversation clutter.
ReplyDeleteJust saying.
Jones beat out Harski, boo!
ReplyDeleteI thought Jones deserved his spot.
He's played well in the pre-season. He looks like an improved player - quicker on his feet and much better with his passing. I think he will prove to be a good signing.
Hunter=goof
ReplyDeletemakha - makha pakha - and if you don't know what I'm talking about, you likely don't have Treehouse on 14 hours a day.
ReplyDeleteI've got no young children in my life, but I still catch the reference - when my girlfriend was going through a very high-stress period (full-time degree program, three part-time jobs), she found that the Makka Pakka song was a great stress reliever. We first heard it when squeezing toys in Superstore. I can't remember why we were doing that.
Bendelson: Brodin's averaging 18:36 a game, putting him 4th on the team among defenceman in icetime. Klefbom's 6:11 a game puts him in 8th.
ReplyDelete"Klefborn" lol! It's Klefbom! Bos8 I'm with you bud - gettin too old to read these fonts!
ReplyDelete